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Tim Bogar: Yup, he still sucks.


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#1 mabrowndog


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 08:52 AM

Lost in the euphoria of last night's walk-off win was the decision to send Salty -- not exactly fleet afoot -- around third on Ellsbury's single to center field. Had the throw home possessed even a shred of improved accuracy, instead of resembling an Iraqi scud missile, Bogar's bloodied corpse would be dangling from a street light in Kenmore Square this morning, untouched by police or city officials.

What it took for Salty to score was a pretty bad and very unlucky throw -- bouncing once and caroming several feet to the right, and fielded nearly 15 feet away from the plate. And he was STILL nearly tagged out. See the video for yourself here.

Here's the throw arriving...

Posted Image


And here's Salty just after hitting the plate...

Posted Image


To recap, there was only one out with Pedroia coming up and Gonzalez on deck. Had there been a faster baserunner, or the bottom of the order due up, a decision to send the guy home at that point is clearly more defensible. But not then, and not in that situation. A better throw -- hell, even the same throw that doesn't take a wildly bad hop away from the plate, forcing the catcher to lunge for it and delaying his dive for the tag -- likely nails Salty cold.

Yes, I rejoice in the game's outcome, but it shouldn't be allowed to obscure what we've known for several seasons now: Tim Bogar is an absolutely horrible third base coach with no concept whatsoever of the time-space matrix.

#2 donutogre

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Posted 03 August 2011 - 08:56 AM

Not having watched the game, I'm pretty confused by the decision to PR Salty for Tek. Couldn't someone a little faster have run for Tek and then Salty could have come in and caught the 10th if necessary? Was there really no one on the bench who was a better option?

#3 EddieYost


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 08:58 AM

Not having watched the game, I'm pretty confused by the decision to PR Salty for Tek. Couldn't someone a little faster have run for Tek and then Salty could have come in and caught the 10th if necessary? Was there really no one on the bench who was a better option?


They have a short bench with Sitting being sent down to make room for Bedard.

#4 glennhoffmania


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 08:59 AM

Yes, I rejoice in the game's outcome, but it shouldn't be allowed to obscure what we've known for several seasons now: Tim Bogar is an absolutely horrible third base coach with no concept whatsoever of the time-space matrix.

Correct. I continue to be amazed that the FO doesn't do something about this. He makes horrible decisions and has no business being out there. This isn't a debate about who the 11th pitcher should be, or how often McDonald should start. Bogar seems pretty black and white and it's just a matter of time before he blows yet another potential win.

#5 Cuzittt


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 08:59 AM

Not having watched the game, I'm pretty confused by the decision to PR Salty for Tek. Couldn't someone a little faster have run for Tek and then Salty could have come in and caught the 10th if necessary? Was there really no one on the bench who was a better option?


There was no one on the bench. Period. Reddick had already come in for McDonald, Scutaro came in when Youkilis was thrown out... and then Saltalamacchia for Tek. That's your entire bench.

As for the decision... I didn't hate it. At worst you have 1st and 3rd with Gonzalez coming up (despite 2 outs).

#6 grsharky7

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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:03 AM

Yeah that was a hard hit ball and I was very surprised that Bogar sent him, especially with Pedroia on deck. If that throw had been on line obviously Salty would've been out by a mile.

#7 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:03 AM

Correct. I continue to be amazed that the FO doesn't do something about this. He makes horrible decisions and has no business being out there. This isn't a debate about who the 11th pitcher should be, or how often McDonald should start. Bogar seems pretty black and white and it's just a matter of time before he blows yet another potential win.

Why would you expect the FO to do something about it? They happily went along with Sveum as 3B coach for a few years despite his being worse than Bogar. Hale was great at the job but they needed him as bench coach this year after Mills left. Bogar likely brings other coaching talents to the table such as OF positioning and such, so based on their past actions the FO is unlikely to make a change.

#8 glennhoffmania


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:03 AM

There was no one on the bench. Period. Reddick had already come in for McDonald, Scutaro came in when Youkilis was thrown out... and then Saltalamacchia for Tek. That's your entire bench.

As for the decision... I didn't hate it. At worst you have 1st and 3rd with Gonzalez coming up (despite 2 outs).

Wouldn't it be Pedroia coming up, and potentially not getting to Gonzalez if Pedroia doesn't reach?

#9 glennhoffmania


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:05 AM

Why would you expect the FO to do something about it? They happily went along with Sveum as 3B coach for a few years despite his being worse than Bogar. Hale was great at the job but they needed him as bench coach this year after Mills left. Bogar likely brings other coaching talents to the table such as OF positioning and such, so based on their past actions the FO is unlikely to make a change.

True. So I guess my more general point is, why does the FO continue to be satisfied with really crappy 3B coaching? If Bogar is great at other aspects of coaching, let him focus on that.

#10 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:06 AM

True. So I guess my more general point is, why does the FO continue to be satisfied with really crappy 3B coaching? If Bogar is great at other aspects of coaching, let him focus on that.

I suspect it's because they consider it not really to be a big deal in the larger scheme of things.

#11 Eric Van


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:07 AM

The Win Probability with the bases full and 1 out is .841; with men on 1st and 3rd and 2 out it's .645. That means the break-even point (with average hitters and pitchers) is (.841 - .645) / (1 - .645) = 55%. With Pedey and Gonz up next, maybe it's 60%.

The question is, what's the scouting report say on Ezequiel "Right Over" Carrera's arm? He's never been written up by BP, but UZR has him at +1.1 runs in just 146 innings, probably based on his 1 assist. That might be luck, though.

It's possible that it was a better gamble than it looked because they had a report to run on Carrera. But probably not.

Edit: Reddick would have made it to 3rd ...

Edited by Eric Van, 03 August 2011 - 09:10 AM.


#12 mabrowndog


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:09 AM

Not having watched the game, I'm pretty confused by the decision to PR Salty for Tek. Couldn't someone a little faster have run for Tek and then Salty could have come in and caught the 10th if necessary? Was there really no one on the bench who was a better option?

Yeah, I uttered an instinctive "WTF?" when I saw Salty grab his helmet and jog out to replace Tek, but then I remembered what Cuz noted above. The only other PR option would have been a pitcher, so having Salty as the potential winning run was unavoidable.

Edited by mabrowndog, 03 August 2011 - 09:15 AM.


#13 JakeRae


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:09 AM

Why would you expect the FO to do something about it? They happily went along with Sveum as 3B coach for a few years despite his being worse than Bogar. Hale was great at the job but they needed him as bench coach this year after Mills left. Bogar likely brings other coaching talents to the table such as OF positioning and such, so based on their past actions the FO is unlikely to make a change.

I can't answer for others, but I hope this organization is enlightened enough to be the first to realize that the traditional coaching pathway is horribly inefficient and to actually put someone at 3B who can perform that job. They aren't, but it doesn't stop my being disappointed and frustrated as a result.

I don't doubt that Bogar has value to the team. He's probably really good at a lot of aspects of his job as a coach. But, he's terrible at his job as a 3B coach. 3B coach is a pretty specialized skill set that has a real impact on wins and losses and needs to start being treated as such.

#14 Buzzkill Pauley


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:10 AM

Not having watched the game, I'm pretty confused by the decision to PR Salty for Tek. Couldn't someone a little faster have run for Tek and then Salty could have come in and caught the 10th if necessary? Was there really no one on the bench who was a better option?


They really had no other position player to run -- assuming Scutaro was still having vertigo-like symptoms and couldn't go. Reddick had already subbed in in for McDonald; Aviles started at SS; Sutton was optioned down to make room for Bedard. With a sick player on the active roster, the Sox were carrying a 2-man bench.

Honestly, I'm sure Scutaro doesn't want to hit the DL for this, but it's not like Aviles and Sutton couldn't hold down the position for two weeks. He's sucking up space at time when the Sox are playing good opponents and need 25 able players on their roster.

Lowrie's return, and expanded rosters, can't come soon enough for me.

#15 joe dokes

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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:13 AM

As for the decision... I didn't hate it. At worst you have 1st and 3rd with Gonzalez coming up (despite 2 outs).


I didn't either. With one out, I expected it.

Bogar has made more than his share of errors, but what kind of arm-reputation does Carrera have? Was the ball hit right at him, or did he have to take an angle so that he was throwing across his body? (I was listening on radio..) However bad Bogar may have been, I'm not willing to assume that he isn't factoring in at least some of that info.

Edited by joe dokes, 03 August 2011 - 09:13 AM.


#16 joe dokes

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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:15 AM

They really had no other position player to run -- assuming Scutaro was still having vertigo-like symptoms and couldn't go. Reddick had already subbed in in for McDonald; Aviles started at SS; Sutton was optioned down to make room for Bedard. With a sick player on the active roster, the Sox were carrying a 2-man bench.

Honestly, I'm sure Scutaro doesn't want to hit the DL for this, but it's not like Aviles and Sutton couldn't hold down the position for two weeks. He's sucking up space at time when the Sox are playing good opponents and need 25 able players on their roster.

Lowrie's return, and expanded rosters, can't come soon enough for me.


Scutaro was in the game at SS after Youk got tossed. He was batting cleanup as a result.

#17 Eric Van


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:15 AM

They really had no other position player to run -- assuming Scutaro was still having vertigo-like symptoms and couldn't go.

Scutaro was in the game at SS after Youk was ejected.

Hey, that bogus check-swing call on Youk not only cost .093 in Win Probability, it forced them to use Scutaro and made him unavailable to pinch-run for 'Tek. Imagine if Salty does get thrown out, just barely, and they lose in extra innings. With Scutaro stranding guys in scoring position in the 10th. They dodged a suck-bullet for sure.

Edited by Eric Van, 03 August 2011 - 09:17 AM.


#18 Gene Conleys Plane Ticket

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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:17 AM

Why would you expect the FO to do something about it? They happily went along with Sveum as 3B coach for a few years despite his being worse than Bogar. Hale was great at the job but they needed him as bench coach this year after Mills left. Bogar likely brings other coaching talents to the table such as OF positioning and such, so based on their past actions the FO is unlikely to make a change.


I would imagine that for the most part, the FO defers to the manager when it comes to assembling the coaching staff. Theo and Francona seem to have a tremendous and productive professional relationship. I don't think Theo would jeopardize that by drawing a line in the sand over the third base coach.

One big flaw in the system, however, is the relatively recently created position of "bench coach." I'm not sure when this position was created (the late '90s I would guess) and even less sure when it became the prestige position on the coaching staff; the unofficial position of "manager in waiting." I remember (quite well) when third base coach was considered the last step before a manager's job. That has changed, so a very competent third base coach like Demarlo Hale, because he's considered managerial material, must be "promoted" to bench coach.

Does anyone really know what a bench coach actually does? I guess he's sort of the consigliere to the manager, but do we have any evidence that Tito (or for that matter, any manager) consistently makes decisions based on his bench coach's input?

I just don't get why an obviously talented third base coach like Hale "needs" to be wasted in a position whose impact on the outcome if games is likely minimal, while a lesser talent like Bogar is placed in a position to directly influence -- even in some cases determine! -- whether games are won or lost. It just seems wildly irrational to me and very out of character for a rationality-based organization like the Red Sox.

Edited by Gene Conleys Plane Ticket, 03 August 2011 - 09:18 AM.


#19 Savin Hillbilly


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:17 AM

I remember seeing the ball off the bat and instantly thinking, "OK, that's too hard to score Salty from second, but we'll be bases loaded with 1 out and Pedroia up. That's fine." Then I saw Salty chugging around 3rd and thought, "Nooooooooo!!!!" followed quickly by "BOGAAAARRRRR!!!!!"

It was a bad decision, because it took not only a bad throw from Carrera to let Salty through (on a perfect slide, no less) but a comically bad one. And even then it was pretty close. If you replay that play 10 times, he's probably out 8 of them.

#20 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:17 AM

I can't answer for others, but I hope this organization is enlightened enough to be the first to realize that the traditional coaching pathway is horribly inefficient and to actually put someone at 3B who can perform that job. They aren't, but it doesn't stop my being disappointed and frustrated as a result.

I don't doubt that Bogar has value to the team. He's probably really good at a lot of aspects of his job as a coach. But, he's terrible at his job as a 3B coach. 3B coach is a pretty specialized skill set that has a real impact on wins and losses and needs to start being treated as such.

Your first paragraph seems to assume that the front office is filled with baseball luddites. I think over the past eight years we've seen that that isn't the case.

You guys might be missing something here: Salty was safe. Maybe Bogar suspected that the CFer's arm might be scattershot and inaccurate, based on the scouting reports he had studied and the CFer's position before the ball was hit. Maybe he did a quick risk-reward calculation and figured it was worth the shot to end the game right there. In any case, results matter. This was not a situation where the ball beat Salty by 25 feet and the catcher dropped it or some such thing, where Bogar would have been insane to send him. This was a good risk. Waving the runner home there forces the defense to make the perfect play, and they couldn't do it.

#21 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:21 AM

Does anyone really know what a bench coach actually does? I guess he's sort of the consigliere to the manager, but do we have any evidence that Tito (or for that matter, any manager) consistently makes decisions based on his bench coach's input?

I just don't get why an obviously talented third base coach like Hale "needs" to be wasted in a position whose impact on the outcome if games is likely minimal, while a lesser talent like Bogar is placed in a position to directly influence -- even in some cases determine! -- whether games are won or lost. It just seems wildly irrational to me and very out of character for a rationality-based organization like the Red Sox.

We know from Tito's previous comments that he got input from Mills quite a bit. I'm sure he gets the same from Hale.

Keep this in mind as well: Tito's health is always going to be a question mark. Having a trustworthy bench coach on hand who's well in tune with Tito's managing decisions and style is a huge benefit for this team, because the bench coach will have to take over as manager if Tito gets sick again. Hale is widely regarded as an excellent coach and has interviewed for several managerial jobs. It seems to me that keeping such a baseball intellect at 3B instead of by his manager's side giving observations, feedback and suggestions would be the stupendous waste of resources.

#22 JakeRae


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:21 AM

Your first paragraph seems to assume that the front office is filled with baseball luddites. I think over the past eight years we've seen that that isn't the case.

You guys might be missing something here: Salty was safe. Maybe Bogar suspected that the CFer's arm might be scattershot and inaccurate, based on the scouting reports he had studied and the CFer's position before the ball was hit. Maybe he did a quick risk-reward calculation and figured it was worth the shot to end the game right there. In any case, results matter. This was not a situation where the ball beat Salty by 25 feet and the catcher dropped it or some such thing, where Bogar would have been insane to send him. This was a good risk. Waving the runner home there forces the defense to make the perfect play, and that couldn't do it.

I'm assuming exactly the opposite about the front office. That's why I'm disappointed. If I were a Cubs fan and had Tim Bogar as 3B coach I would have bigger fish to fry.

And, my comments were not based on last night but on Bogar's overall body of work. He's been consistently awful.

#23 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:22 AM

I'm assuming exactly the opposite about the front office. That's why I'm disappointed. If I were a Cubs fan and had Tim Bogar as 3B coach I would have bigger fish to fry.

And, my comments were not based on last night but on Bogar's overall body of work. He's been consistently awful.

This thread is new and the other hadn't been bumped in a while. I'd say "consistently awful" is a strong overstatement of Bogar's work at 3B lately.

#24 mabrowndog


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:27 AM

This was not a situation where the ball beat Salty by 25 feet and the catcher dropped it or some such thing, where Bogar would have been insane to send him. This was a good risk. Waving the runner home there forces the defense to make the perfect play, and that couldn't do it.

If a perfect play was required, I never would have started this thread. But it WAS NOT required.

Watch the video again. Even with the throw on line about 10 feet right of the plate, if it takes a true hop right to the catcher and he's able to immediately dive for the tag, Salty's out and rather easily. Instead the ball hops 5 more feet to the right, the catcher has to lunge to field it (with his left hand across his body), then reverse his momentum and dive left 50% farther than he otherwise would have.

Edited by mabrowndog, 03 August 2011 - 09:28 AM.


#25 Eric Van


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:28 AM

I remember seeing the ball off the bat and instantly thinking, "OK, that's too hard to score Salty from second, but we'll be bases loaded with 1 out and Pedroia up. That's fine." Then I saw Salty chugging around 3rd and thought, "Nooooooooo!!!!" followed quickly by "BOGAAAARRRRR!!!!!"

Funny -- I was watching the game late on DVR, and I was at 11:50 PM game time and 12:08 AM real time. And I realized with a sense of panic that my recording had run out at midnight. So I paused the game, hit mute, picked the Sox in 2 game (which is to say, the postgame) off the Program Guide, selected it while not watching the screen, and hit the record button. So now I would have an 8-minute gap at worst if it had gone to extra innings.

I then tried to resume the game recording and selected the wrong "MLB Baseball" game from the DVR menu and got the postgame, where I looked at the screen for a tenth of a second and saw a crawl saying they'd won.

So I went back to the game knowing they had won it in the ninth. Just not how. And none of this occurred to me. When they sent Salty I was pretty certain he was going to score, so I had no BOGARRR reaction at all.

This is why I really try not to get spoiled when I have to watch the game late . I knew that the whole psychology of watching changes when you know anything about what might happen, but this was a new twist. When you think it's fated, it changes dramatically.

#26 joe dokes

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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:32 AM

I'm assuming exactly the opposite about the front office. That's why I'm disappointed. If I were a Cubs fan and had Tim Bogar as 3B coach I would have bigger fish to fry.

And, my comments were not based on last night but on Bogar's overall body of work. He's been consistently awful.


So Bogar gets no 'credit' at all for the runner scoring? Even if his decision was informed by a pregame meeting in which he was told "The CF has the least accurate arm in the history of sports."

Considering the high regard I have for the manager and front office, I'm agnostic on Bogar. But sometimes, when a runner scores on a close play, it means the 3rd base coach got it exactly right.

#27 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:34 AM

If a perfect play was required, I never would have started this thread. But it WAS NOT required.

Watch the video again. Even with the throw on line about 10 feet right of the plate, if it takes a true hop right to the catcher and he's able to immediately dive for the tag, Salty's out and rather easily. Instead the ball hops 5 more feet to the right, the catcher has to lunge to field it (with his left hand across his body), then reverse his momentum and dive left 50% farther than he otherwise would have.

But the fact that the throw was offline in the first place is the key to that play. Unpon repeated watchings I'm unconvinced that even if the ball takes a true hop to the catcher that he can make the play on Salty.

If the CF throws it to the third base side of the plate it's a much closer play. Of course Bogar may have scouting reports saying the CFer's throws are often offline.

#28 yecul


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:35 AM

Funny -- I was watching the game late on DVR, and I was at 11:50 PM game time and 12:08 AM real time. And I realized with a sense of panic that my recording had run out at midnight. So I paused the game, hit mute, picked the Sox in 2 game (which is to say, the postgame) off the Program Guide, selected it while not watching the screen, and hit the record button. So now I would have an 8-minute gap at worst if it had gone to extra innings.

I then tried to resume the game recording and selected the wrong "MLB Baseball" game from the DVR menu and got the postgame, where I looked at the screen for a tenth of a second and saw a crawl saying they'd won.

So I went back to the game knowing they had won it in the ninth. Just not how. And none of this occurred to me. When they sent Salty I was pretty certain he was going to score, so I had no BOGARRR reaction at all.

This is why I really try not to get spoiled when I have to watch the game late . I knew that the whole psychology of watching changes when you know anything about what might happen, but this was a new twist. When you think it's fated, it changes dramatically.


Riveting stuff. What'd you watch after?

#29 Cuzittt


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:38 AM

Wouldn't it be Pedroia coming up, and potentially not getting to Gonzalez if Pedroia doesn't reach?


Yes. It would have been Dustin. My bad.

#30 joe dokes

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Posted 03 August 2011 - 09:40 AM

If a perfect play was required, I never would have started this thread. But it WAS NOT required.

Watch the video again. Even with the throw on line about 10 feet right of the plate, if it takes a true hop right to the catcher and he's able to immediately dive for the tag, Salty's out and rather easily. Instead the ball hops 5 more feet to the right, the catcher has to lunge to field it (with his left hand across his body), then reverse his momentum and dive left 50% farther than he otherwise would have.


I did just watch the video. I dont know what Bogar saw, but I see the CF field the ball off to his left, presumably to get the ball to his left -- throwing -- hand more quickly. That put him off balance. That throw bounced in the same direction he threw it -- it was tailing all the way.
A better outfielder plays that ball straight on and lets his momentum go right towards the plate -- where he wants the ball to go.

Assuming Bogar does at least some studying for his job, maybe he thinks that when an OF isn't going straight in, the ball will tail? And as son as he sees Carrera make that adjustment, its game on.

Edited by joe dokes, 03 August 2011 - 09:41 AM.


#31 KiltedFool


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 10:11 AM

I did just watch the video. I dont know what Bogar saw, but I see the CF field the ball off to his left, presumably to get the ball to his left -- throwing -- hand more quickly. That put him off balance. That throw bounced in the same direction he threw it -- it was tailing all the way.
A better outfielder plays that ball straight on and lets his momentum go right towards the plate -- where he wants the ball to go.

Assuming Bogar does at least some studying for his job, maybe he thinks that when an OF isn't going straight in, the ball will tail? And as son as he sees Carrera make that adjustment, its game on.


I don't see a lot of studying likely involved, just remembering the previous night.

Carrera's a rookie, a quick scouting report from one of the Tribe prospect sites:

Carrera doesn't steal a lot of bases, but he has plus speed and could be a very good pinch running option off the bench for a major league team. He is more of a defensive specialist as he plays an above average center field with solid arm strength and is versatile where he can play all three outfield spots with ease. He shows good first step quickness and takes good routes to balls.


He's a classic 4th outfielder/pinch runner/defensive specialist at this point. He does have some ability and some balls though, his at-bats have been decent of late, and he is the guy who in his first ever major league at-bat pulled off an RBI drag bunt for a base hit against Cincinnati in May this year, it was the game winner.


Two recent data points Bogar would have available to him, the previous night (Aug 1).

In the second inning Saltalamacchia ground rule doubled to right. Reddick singled to centerfield right after. Sound familiar?
Carrera charged the ball and came up throwing and one-hopped a perfect throw to the catcher. Salty was held at third on the play and the game thread filled up with comments to the effect that he'd have been dead as fried chicken if he'd gone. This was the exact same play and situation as last night except early in the game.

Youkilis' triple. Carrera was clearly flustered by the triangle in deep center field, it's a hard area to play if you've never done it, and the warning track there is not consistent in depth. Watching Zeke he looked like he got tentative because he expected to bump into the wall at any instant, but the warning track widens back there. When the ball hit and bounced away, he seemed to panic and threw it in as quick and as hard as he could, completely sacrificing any attempt to throw to or at someone, just get the throw off. Thus he threw it to the wall past third base and Tomlin made the quick pounce to throw out Youkilis.

The throw took a bad bounce, and I really think Carrera basically got the equivalent of a 2-seam fastball grip when he pulled the ball out of his glove based on how it tailed. I said this in the game thread last night, you sometimes see a throw tail because you don't have time to sort for a 4 seam grip.

So I doubt Bogar was thinking deep thoughts beyond "single to outfield, go for it!" Perhaps the strengths of the available remaining bullpens and benches might have had a glimmer, perhaps he thought "test the rookie", but I doubt he went much deeper than that.

#32 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 10:23 AM

Two recent data points Bogar would have available to him, the previous night (Aug 1).

In the second inning Saltalamacchia ground rule doubled to right. Reddick singled to centerfield right after. Sound familiar?
Carrera charged the ball and came up throwing and one-hopped a perfect throw to the catcher. Salty was held at third on the play and the game thread filled up with comments to the effect that he'd have been dead as fried chicken if he'd gone. This was the exact same play and situation as last night except early in the game.

Youkilis' triple. Carrera was clearly flustered by the triangle in deep center field, it's a hard area to play if you've never done it, and the warning track there is not consistent in depth. Watching Zeke he looked like he got tentative because he expected to bump into the wall at any instant, but the warning track widens back there. When the ball hit and bounced away, he seemed to panic and threw it in as quick and as hard as he could, completely sacrificing any attempt to throw to or at someone, just get the throw off. Thus he threw it to the wall past third base and Tomlin made the quick pounce to throw out Youkilis.

The throw took a bad bounce, and I really think Carrera basically got the equivalent of a 2-seam fastball grip when he pulled the ball out of his glove based on how it tailed. I said this in the game thread last night, you sometimes see a throw tail because you don't have time to sort for a 4 seam grip.

So I doubt Bogar was thinking deep thoughts beyond "single to outfield, go for it!" Perhaps the strengths of the available remaining bullpens and benches might have had a glimmer, perhaps he thought "test the rookie", but I doubt he went much deeper than that.


So based on your reports here....Bogar's a good 3B coach. :) When he held the runner he was wise because general consensus was the runner was a dead duck, and when he sent the runner the runner scored.

On the first play you describe, did Carrera field it directly in front of him or off to the side a little bit like last night's play?

#33 KiltedFool


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 10:35 AM

So based on your reports here....Bogar's a good 3B coach. :) When he held the runner he was wise because general consensus was the runner was a dead duck, and when he sent the runner the runner scored.

On the first play you describe, did Carrera field it directly in front of him or off to the side a little bit like last night's play?


Wouldn't say that, the old cliche of "better to be lucky than good" applies here.

Dim from memory there was a slight difference in where he gloved it between the two plays, but not a large one.

You generally want to field a ball you're charging slightly on your glove side, which allows you to bring the glove up and transfer the ball to your throwing hand as you do your crow hop to rifle it home. The rhythm works out quite well. Carrera throws lefty.

You'd have to look at a split screen video to see it, but I'd bet Bogar had already started waving Salty home before the ball got anywhere near Carrera, he'd have to make his decision quickly with Salty having a solid secondary lead. A late stop sign is as much an injury risk as a collision at home. I can't see the timing working out for Bogar to make a choice that late, if the outfielder is within a few feet of touching the ball and Saltalamacchia isn't even around third Santana would have had time to adjust his cup and blow his nose and still tag him out even with that throw.

End of the day it was a gamble that worked. The type of hit made it a worse gamble, it being against a rookie mitigated.

#34 bombdiggz

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Posted 03 August 2011 - 10:56 AM

So Bogar gets no 'credit' at all for the runner scoring? Even if his decision was informed by a pregame meeting in which he was told "The CF has the least accurate arm in the history of sports."


But the run is only the short term battle here.

When Bogar was so brutal last year, the complaint wasn't only that he was getting runners thrown out at the plate, but he was really putting guys in situations where they had an elevated risk of being injured. Salty executed a great slide, but it was Bogar's decision making that made that slide necessary. In that situation, bases loaded, less than two outs, two great hitters (and great situational hitters) up next, in my mind that runner has to score basically standing up to send him. I just don't see the logic in forcing the issue there.

If Salty got thrown out I wouldn't have supported hanging Bogar in downtown Boston, but if Salty broke a finger or two on that slide, I'd probably be leading the posse. Can you imagine Tek having to carry the load? We have seen it recently and it's not pretty. Salty is a tremendously valuable piece to this team and we need him if we are going to win the war and bring another championship to Boston.

Tim has cost the team some games on plays at the plate with his coach work, but he is damn lucky he hasn't injured anyone (does Santana count?) with his shotty work in the third base coaches box.

#35 OttoC


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 11:04 AM

One question that needs to be asked, although I don't think it can be answered from existing play-by-play data, is how often do outfielders try to throw out runners at various bases. One can answer the question of how successful they are but there is nothing to compare that to.

#36 wade boggs chicken dinner


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 11:28 AM

Mariners prospect site quotes Minor League Analyst:

  • 7B prospect: probably will be a major-league regular (!)
  • Lean and athletic
  • Plays within his game, keeping ball on ground (a la Ichiro - Dr D)
  • Small body, "lack of load in swing" rules out HR, but can hit gaps
  • (Plus range, minus arm, minus routes)

I would think that they had a scouting report that indicated his arm should be tested.




#37 yecul


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 11:42 AM

In isolation you could defend the decision based on what people have laid out. Direction the OF was heading, his particular make-up, chances of the throw being off line, etc.

However, in the context of Bogar's body of work I don't think he gets the benefit of the doubt here. If the above is his thought process, then that means it's his general approach. And we've seen the results of his decisions in marginal/close/super tight situations. Not so hot.

Conclusion? Yup, he still sucks, but everyone gets lucky.

#38 Al Zarilla


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 12:23 PM

Everything has been said except only on a Red Sox board could there be 37 posts before this one questioning a play on which the home team had a walkoff win. However, Bogar must be one of the worst at his job, or there wouldn't be such a cacophony here so often about him. There is another 3B coach I see applying his craft all the time (you guessed it, the Giants), Tim Flannery. I don't know if there are stats anywhere, but he's the anti-Bogar. Rarely does a Giant get thrown out at the plate, while a lot of them score on close plays. He is growing to be a legend in SF though. People that have been around for a long time like Mike Krukow and Duane Kuiper marvel at him, and don't know how he does it. Be nice of the Sox even had an "average" 3B coach, whatever that would be.

#39 KiltedFool


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 12:30 PM

By the way, in similar fashion Tribe fans still talk about pummeling the hell out of Joel Skinner for throwing up the stop sign on Lofton. Just as an aside.

#40 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 12:46 PM

By the way, in similar fashion Tribe fans still talk about pummeling the hell out of Joel Skinner for throwing up the stop sign on Lofton. Just as an aside.

To be fair, that was an egregiously bad decision at a moment where the entire season was on the line. I think the Tribe fans are being quite reasonable. Hell, the Sox have won 2 WS in the last 7 years and yet Grady Little's name still invokes invective here.

#41 joe dokes

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Posted 03 August 2011 - 12:47 PM

Everything has been said except only on a Red Sox board could there be 37 posts before this one questioning a play on which the home team had a walkoff win. However, Bogar must be one of the worst at his job, or there wouldn't be such a cacophony here so often about him. There is another 3B coach I see applying his craft all the time (you guessed it, the Giants), Tim Flannery. I don't know if there are stats anywhere, but he's the anti-Bogar. Rarely does a Giant get thrown out at the plate, while a lot of them score on close plays. He is growing to be a legend in SF though. People that have been around for a long time like Mike Krukow and Duane Kuiper marvel at him, and don't know how he does it. Be nice of the Sox even had an "average" 3B coach, whatever that would be.


Sox have scored 200 (!!) more runs than the Giants. Maybe Bogar is just worn out.
Maybe Flannery's ultra-conservative style is one reason the Giants are about last in the world in runs scored. ;)

#42 Al Zarilla


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 12:57 PM

Sox have scored 200 (!!) more runs than the Giants. Maybe Bogar is just worn out.
Maybe Flannery's ultra-conservative style is one reason the Giants are about last in the world in runs scored. ;)

He's not untra-conservative though. As I said in the first post, a lot of Giants that he waves in score on very close plays. Just thought of another thing: The Red Sox have a bit of a revolving door at the 3B coaching postion. Flannery's been doing that job for quite a few years. I suppose it's a stepping stone position toward a better coaching job, but it would be nice to get a good one and keep him for a few years anyway.

#43 TheoShmeo


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 01:10 PM

I get that Tito's health is always an issue and that having a strong bench coach is doubly important with the Sox.

But the 3B coach is on the bench for half the game and I'd easily trade Tito being without Hale for half the game and having a third base coach who is so solid that he almost makes you forget he's out there for Tito being able to confer with Hale while the Sox are on offense and having a third base coach who has gotten better but who still is pretty bad.

I've always viewed the 3B coaching job as a special skill that some guys have and many do not. Being a good bench coach seems to be within the grasp of many more good baseball men. Hale is likely a very good sounding board but other guys can more readily offer that skill than what he offered at third base.

For what it's worth, I was in the EMC last night and had a perfect view of that last play. From where I sat, it seemed clear that a throw that was not off line would have gotten Salty comfortably. I was already mentally processing "he's out" and then the throw happily went off line.

#44 HriniakPosterChild

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Posted 03 August 2011 - 01:12 PM

To be fair, that was an egregiously bad decision at a moment where the entire season was on the line. I think the Tribe fans are being quite reasonable. Hell, the Sox have won 2 WS in the last 7 years and yet Grady Little's name still invokes invective here.


Ah, but tell us how you feel about John McNamara, and did his pitcher really ask out of that game?

#45 Al Zarilla


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 01:13 PM

I was already mentally processing "he's out" and then the throw happily went off line.

Like when the 7 foot center chucks up a 3 point shot and you're like No, NO, NO, YES!

#46 Lose Remerswaal


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 01:14 PM

Everything has been said except only on a Red Sox board could there be 37 posts before this one questioning a play on which the home team had a walkoff win. However, Bogar must be one of the worst at his job, or there wouldn't be such a cacophony here so often about him. There is another 3B coach I see applying his craft all the time (you guessed it, the Giants), Tim Flannery. I don't know if there are stats anywhere, but he's the anti-Bogar. Rarely does a Giant get thrown out at the plate, while a lot of them score on close plays. He is growing to be a legend in SF though. People that have been around for a long time like Mike Krukow and Duane Kuiper marvel at him, and don't know how he does it. Be nice of the Sox even had an "average" 3B coach, whatever that would be.

Already mentioned above: DeMarlo Hale. Never had a thread here about bad choices sending guys home.

#47 Al Zarilla


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 01:42 PM

Already mentioned above: DeMarlo Hale. Never had a thread here about bad choices sending guys home.

Yeah, I heard Hale was good. A 6' 4" 235 pound catcher, looking pretty damn good now by the way, going balls out and then sliding on his stomach with an arm and hand outstretched for home plate, what a recipe for disaster.

#48 alannathan

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Posted 03 August 2011 - 01:58 PM

Last year, when things were much worse with Bogar, I was wondering why he and RJ don't trade places. I am pretty sure RJ had a lot of experience coaching 3B when he managed the PawSox.

#49 mauidano


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 01:58 PM

Bottom line...he was safe and we won the game. There is always an element of chance running the bases, stealing second or third or even trying to score at home. It was a good decision on Bogar's part. Salty scores and we walk off winners. You have to take those chances in the bottom of the ninth.

#50 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 03 August 2011 - 02:02 PM

Last year, when things were much worse with Bogar, I was wondering why he and RJ don't trade places. I am pretty sure RJ had a lot of experience coaching 3B when he managed the PawSox.

IIRC Johnson has suffered some sort of injury which prevents him from achieving the type of mobility needed to coach third base. Third base coaches are often all over the place on the line, trying to get better angles for both the play and their runners to see them.