19 replies to this topic

[DanoooME]

If the Sox decide to trade for a starting pitcher, taking into account all of the considerations of the trade like acquisition cost, contract status, talent, team's level of need, etc., who are your top 2 choices for the acquisition? There's always a need for Plan B, so that's the reason for top 2 choices.

I tried to cover most of the options linked to the Sox as well as a couple of other names that have been thrown around in other deals to multiple teams. I didn't cover any of the real longshot deals like King Felix, but there's an option available if you really think it's going to happen.

There seems to be a lot of differing opinions in the various trade threads, so let's see if there's any kind of consensus.

[LahoudOrBillyC]

taking into account all of the considerations of the trade like acquisition cost

Unfortunately, we don't know any of the acquisition costs. We can't be expected to vote based on some writer's spitballing tweets, can we?

[ThatsMyPeskyPole]

Unfortunately, we don't know any of the acquisition costs. We can't be expected to vote based on some writer's spitballing tweets, can we?

If the price is high I want Baldo, if the price is reasonable(cheap) for Bedard I'd take him. But if we empty the farm need young and controlled arm Baldo.

Edited by ThatsMyPeskyPole, 29 July 2011 - 09:34 AM.

[ThatsMyPeskyPole]

DP

Edited by ThatsMyPeskyPole, 29 July 2011 - 09:35 AM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I stayed away from Jimenez because I'm convinced the acquisition cost will be unacceptably high and because I'm a bit worried by his batted-ball trends (GB% falling, LD% rising).

Of the rest, Bedard looks like the best choice, followed by Kuroda if he'll waive his no-trade and the cost is reasonable (if the cost is reasonable enough, I might flip Kuroda and Bedard). I have concerns about how Wandy's stuff will play in this division, and I'm worried about Harden's recent sky-high HR/FB, which Rudy pointed out in the Harden thread.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Unfortunately, we don't know any of the acquisition costs. We can't be expected to vote based on some writer's spitballing tweets, can we?

We don't know the costs for sure, but we can make reasonable guesses about how one guy might compare, relatively, to another. I'm pretty sure Bedard and Harden would cost less than Jimenez and Kuroda. I don't know what the package to trade for any of them individually will be, but I'd rather go for the lower cost guys, who both still have high ceilings. In fact, a healthy Bedard or Harden could be every bit as good as a healthy Jimenez down the stretch. Their health is the big question mark, and thus the reason they are likely to be far less expensive.

[OCD SS]

Unfortunately, we don't know any of the acquisition costs. We can't be expected to vote based on some writer's spitballing tweets, can we?

I think we just have to go ahead and guess at the relative likelihood of those costs and vote accordingly. I'm going with Bedard and Kuroda for that reason. I'd love to see Theo pull off a "fucking A" trade for Ubaldo as I especially like his long term control, but I don't like the idea of dumping Middlebrooks given how 3B looks long-term. I'll cop to Middlebrooks being my binky since he was drafted, and if the Sox can land him without giving up WMB I'd change my vote, but I don't think they can.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I went with Bedard and Guthrie -- I like Guthrie's AL East pedigree and groundball tendencies more than I trust Kuroda's FIP to hold up out of the NL West. Bedard is my top choice by far, though.

I'd bet on a healthy (and odd-year) Beckett-Lester-Buchholz-Bedard combo to outpitch any rotation in baseball, even the vaunted Phillies and Giants.

[YTF]

My gut tells me other, but I have no idea who. The Sox had a very busy off season reinforcing areas that they thought needed to be addressed the most. The one area that seemed most solid was the starting pitching. Right now that's the biggest concern and though the Sox still having the best record in the AL, we've seen in the past few weeks that it's due much more to the runs that the offense has been able to produce than the current 3-5 combo of Lackey, Wakefield and Miller. I think the Sox go off the board here and swing a deal that none of us saw coming. Probably involving a third team. They have the chips to deal if they are willing and could potentially pick up a guy that gives them insurance against Buchholz' back for this season and post season and take Dice-K's slot in the rotation next season.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think the Sox go off the board here and swing a deal that none of us saw coming. Probably involving a third team.

Can you come up with a plausible name for this scenario? I've just looked through the list of top pitchers in MLB. Most of them pitch for contenders, are cost-controlled for the next few years, and/or pitch for a divisional rival. One of the only exceptions I can think of off the bat is our old friend Anibal Sanchez, but Heyman, FWIW, says he's off limits.

The guys being talked about are being talked about because they're the best pitchers that one could reasonably assume are available. Jimenez, Kuroda, Bedard, Rodriguez--these guys don't suck. That's why contending teams are interested in them.

[dylanmarsh]

I'm not a fan of trading away part of the farm unless it's for someone elite like Adrian Gonzalez. So, I don't think Ubaldo is worth what the Rockies are reportedly asking. I would rather take a chance on either Erik Bedard or the poor man's Buehrle, Jeff Francis. Both have team friendly contracts, although I'm curious as to what will get Bedard to the $6.35M in incentives, and shouldn't cost the Red Sox the minor league capital that Ubaldo will. Plus, in a playoff series, I would rather have Francis as the lefty out of the 'pen than Morales, Miller, or Williams.

[DaubachmanTurnerOD]

I went with Bedard over Jimenez (second choice) solely on aquisition cost considerations. It is really close for me though. There is incredible value in Jimenez' contract over the next few years, even if he's a number two rather than an ace, I'd be okay with the Sox giving up quite a bit to get him. I guess I'm less concerned with Jimenez' velocity drop than I am with the prospect of Kuroda or Wandy pitching in the AL East.

[Al Zarilla]

The Giants have gone from Barry Zito to TBA for their SP on Sunday vs. the Reds. <ducks>

[Savin Hillbilly]

The Giants have gone from Barry Zito to TBA for their SP on Sunday vs. the Reds. <ducks>

It would make more sense to duck if he was pitching.

[EddieYost]

The Giants have gone from Barry Zito to TBA for their SP on Sunday vs. the Reds. <ducks>

Thats fine as long as they take Horseface for him.

[Clears Cleaver]

When was the last time Theo acquired via trade or free agency a good/useful/guy you'd start in the playoffs starting pitcher? 2003 with Schilling? diceK, Clement, Lackey, Smoltz, Penny, Miller, etc etc etc.

Hard to have confidence any of these are going to work, but reality is we are talking about 4 starts in the playoffs is all (unless you mortgage the farm for Ubaldo). The safer thing is to get a Bedard or Kuroda for little.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

When was the last time Theo acquired via trade or free agency a good/useful/guy you'd start in the playoffs starting pitcher? 2003 with Schilling? diceK, Clement, Lackey, Smoltz, Penny, Miller, etc etc etc.

Hard to have confidence any of these are going to work, but reality is we are talking about 4 starts in the playoffs is all (unless you mortgage the farm for Ubaldo). The safer thing is to get a Bedard or Kuroda for little.

Beckett?

[Clears Cleaver]

Beckett?

nope, he reportedly wasn't involved in the transaction. although I am not sure anyone truly knows what happened during those weeks he took off and that deal was consumated.

[Eric Van]

Current numbers:

(WRA converts WPA to an ERA
SI+ is 10% that and 90% a mix of 85% SIERA and 15% ERA
Z-R is ZiPS rest of season ERA projection
3+4 is career OPS versus 3 and 4 hitters less overall OPS, a proxy for ability to get good hitters out)

SP Candidates

Name	Team	Contract	SIERA	xFIP	FIP	ERA	WRA	SI+	Z-R	3+4
Erik Bedard	Sea	FA	3.34	3.39	3.67	3.45	4.08	3.43	3.41	14
Wandy Rodriguez	Htn	2/25.5 or 3/36 (11.3 AAV)	3.51	3.51	3.88	3.47	3.42	3.50	4.00	128
Hiroki Kuroda	LAN	FA after 2013; $12M this year	3.69	3.66	3.71	3.11	3.72	3.61	3.77	79
Brandon McCarthy	Oak	FA after 2012	3.65	3.43	2.78	3.52	4.07	3.67	3.65	40
Aaron Harang	SD	$5M mutual option	4.14	4.04	3.74	3.45	3.08	3.94	4.50	146
Jason Vargas	Sea	FA after 2013	4.29	4.30	4.13	4.09	3.95	4.23	4.35	17
Jeremy Guthrie	Bal	FA after 2012	4.36	4.28	4.42	4.24	4.01	4.31	4.50	77

So, Bedard may be a head case, Rodriguez and Harang are not AL East / playoff type pitchers, Kuroda and McCarthy are probably unavailable (the latter is included just because of a guess at MLBTradeRumors), and Vargas and Guthrie aren't significantly better than Weiland.

No wonder they wanted Harden. And Bedard still looks like the next best bet.

[trekfan55]

nope, he reportedly wasn't involved in the transaction. although I am not sure anyone truly knows what happened during those weeks he took off and that deal was consumated.

It's heavily rumored that Theo said he would not have done this deal. Just FWIW.