3 replies to this topic

[redinchicago]

Justin Masterson
Born: March 22, 1985
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 235
Throws: Right-handed
Drafted: 2nd round, 2006
School: San Diego St.

Justin is one of those players that really benefited from playing summer ball in the Cape Cod league. After spending his first 2 seasons at Bethel College (Indiana), Masterson found a connection to his team on the Cape (Wareham). Pitching as a fill in at the beginning, he was kept on the team as the team's closer once the other pitchers arrived.

After getting recognized as the 11th best prospect on the Cape, Justin pitched his third year at San Diego St. An honorable mention all-Mountain West Conference selection, Masterson went 4-2 with a 4.72 earned run average in league play, and an overall record of 6-7 with one save and a 4.81 ERA. He struck out 108 batters in 166 innings.

Though he started 16 of his 17 at San Diego St., and will continue pitching as a starter in the minors, Justin currently projects as a right-handed bullpen arm. Known as someone with good work ethic, a future major league starter isn't out of the equation, but the lack of a consistent 2nd and 3rd pitch has him still in the 'raw' category.

Amazingly, Justin just learned his 2 best pitches last summer, thanks to Wareham pitching coach Ryan Beggs. His 2 seam fastball (low 90s) has above average movement into the right-handed hitters and his slider (mid 80s) has good, late diagonal movement. He also throws a change, mostly to left-handed hitters.

Since he pitched a pretty full season at San Diego St., Justin will be kept to short 2 inning outings at short-season Lowell this summer.

Good interview with Justin Masterson

Masterson profile at Sox Prospects

2005 top 30 Cape Cod league prospects

11. Justin Masterson, rhp, Wareham (San Diego State)

Unknown before this summer, Masterson quickly gained notoriety with his 6-foot-6, 235-pound build, a 93-94 mph fastball that sinks and a hard slider. He pitched his way into the early rounds of the 2006 draft and a transfer from Bethel (Ind.) to San Diego State.

Edited by redinchicago, 04 July 2006 - 09:22 AM.

[Hairps]

One important thing to note when considering Masterson's college numbers is that he pitched predominantly in extreme hitters' parks.

I stopped tracking his game logs about halfway through last season, but consider the following:

  DATE      Opponent    PARK
   2-Feb       Hawaii       89
  11-Feb  Santa Clara      102
  18-Feb     Cal Poly      119
  24-Feb    UC Irvine       77
   3-Mar   Pepperdine      119
  10-Mar    San Diego       98
  17-Mar         UCLA      114
  24-Mar      Pacific      119
  29-Mar   New Mexico      159
   2-Apr         UNLV      119
   7-Apr   New Mexico      119
  13-Apr         Utah      119
  21-Apr         UNLV      123
  28-Apr          TCU      119
   5-May    air force      159
  11-May          byu      143
  23-May         unlv      123

To be clear, when you look at those park factors, think of it as a percentage of how run-friendly those specific parks are relative to a "neutral park." So, a PF of 77 is a park that has allowed an average of 23% fewer runs than a neutral park over the past three season. A PF of 119 means that park has allowed an average of 19% more runs than a neutral park over the past three seasons.

Why is this important? If you take Masterson's 2006 4.81 ERA and adjust it only for average defense and Park Effects, it's actually 2.97. When you take into account the level of competition against whom he pitched, it drops to 2.69. In total, that's the third-largest spread between ERA and adjusted ERA in all of college baseball last season (and the largest among pitchers with over 100 IP).

In short, I like Justin Masterson.

Edited by Hairps, 05 July 2006 - 11:37 AM.

[Ian]

Great Work Hairps, i hope your analysis proves to be correct.

[templeUsox]

While Justin Masterson continues to impress with his 12+ K/9 and his ~4 H/9, his batted ball type might be even more astounding.