84 replies to this topic

[Kilgore A. Trout]

After tonight's win, coupled with Cincy's walk off against St. Louis, the Pittsburgh Pirates are in first place. A three way tie, okay, but seeing as we're talking about a franchise that hasn't had a good night since Sid Bream was called safe, this is a pretty big thing for them to be here at this point on the season.
Sure, its not the best league, let alone the best division in that league, and its not likely to last. Ultimately they don't really have the pitching, or the offense, to really survive once Milwaukee and/or St. Louis get their shit together. But this is, I would posit, a very good thing for baseball. Not just because its a good thing any time a 'weaker' franchise does well, but because if Pittsburgh can successfully build off of this success and keep it going, then they could very well become a real prominent NL team once again. They already got one of the finest stadiums in baseball, that had respectable numbers even when the team was terrible, which now is not all that bad means even better crowds, which I believe will lend to better TV ratings, which means more money to work with, which will lead to keeping what stars they can develop, which is... well, you get the idea.
That is what I see happening. At least hope to. Pittsburgh coming back to the forefront of the national league.
Thoughts?

[Frank, Fenway]

Well they've certainly got a better chance than the formerly "big red machine"

[axx]

Reminds me of that 2003 Royals team.

[Spacemans Bong]

It's a year too soon for them, but the 2003 Royals was a fluke season from one of the worst organizations in baseball. The Pirates aren't being actively mismanaged anymore, and while their pitching is bound to fall off, it's just as likely Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata will start to hit more.

Really the goal for this team is 82 wins. Pittsburgh will all but throw a parade for 82 wins.

[Dehere]

Since June 1 the Pirates have played at a 98-win pace.

I think they have as good a shot at that division as anybody.

[tmorgan]

How many games to the Pirates have to win for McCutchen to win the MVP? If they win the division it's probably his, as in popular imagination he would have been responsible for his team beating out Votto, Fielder/Braun and Berkman/Pujols. Meanwhile none of the Phillies pitchers individually could be credited and the West is just strange. If he finishes strong he could end up close to a 30/30 season and a justified gold glove. It's a pretty amazing season.

[Sea Dog]

Reminds me of that 2003 Royals team.

2003 Royals
C -- Brent Mayne
1B -- Ken Harvey
2B -- Desi Relaford
3B -- Joe Randa
SS -- Angel Berroa
LF -- Raul Ibanez
CF -- Carlos Beltran
RF -- Aaron Guiel
DH -- Mike Sweeney
Rotation -- Darrell May, Chris George, Runelvys Hernandez, Kyle Snyder, Jose Lima

2011 Pirates
C -- Michael McKenry (after three catchers got hurt)
1B -- Lyle Overbay
2B -- Neil Walker
3B -- Chase d'Arnaud (Pedro Alvarez on DL)
SS -- Ronny Cedeno
LF -- Alex Presley (Jose Tabata on DL)
CF -- Andrew McCutchen
RF -- Garrett Jones
Rotation -- Paul Maholm, Kevin Correia, Jeff Karstens, James McDonald, Charlie Morton

The big difference seems to be age.

Royals lineup 28 years old or younger -- Three
Pirates lineup 28 years old or younger -- Six

Also, Beltran was in his second-to-last year on his contract and Ibanez was in his contract year, so the window was closing on the Royals. The Pirates, however, have a load of cost-controlled players that those Royals didn't have -- Walker, McCutchen, Alvarez, Tabata, Hanrahan, Morton, McDonald, etc.

Both relied on younger rotations, too, but no one really put much stock in Chris George, Runelvys Hernandez and Kyle Snyder as hot prospects, or guys with high ceilings. The Royals ran Hernandez's career out of the league, too, by overtaxing him constantly. The Pirates' pitchers seem to be different -- McDonald (Dotel trade) and Morton (McLouth trade) came with some promise, and even Karstens had some value to a good Yankees team. And Maholm has been serviceable for years now.

Bottom line, I would give the Bucs a much better chance of sustaining this long-term. They might regress later this season and next season, too, but I think they are on their way up and going about rebuilding the right way. Those Royals had no clue, signing Benito Santiago and Juan Gonzalez as free agents in hopes of replicating and improving on that 2003 season. Rather than building with kids from within, they chose to build with aging veterans from elsewhere.

[Dehere]

Pirates now alone in first place! Raise the window Aunt Minnie!

[Brianish]

I love seeing a small market team build successfully with drafting and development.

And this one's not in our division!

[Dehere]

Baseball Prospectus gives the Pirates a 4% chance of making the playoffs. I wonder if that's the lowest percentage ever calculated for a division leader this late in a season. The playoff chances of the other five division leaders are currently pegged at 99%, 97%, 97%, 91%, and 25% (Cleveland).

I understand a healthy dose of skepticism about this team but 4%?? Really? Would anybody really like to offer me 25-1 odds on the Pirates winning the division? I looked online for some division props and could only find one. That book had the Pirates at 5-1 to win the NL Central, making them a moderately priced fourth choice in that division. Seems reasonable enough.

Pirates have won 10 of their last 12 series, plus one split of a four-gamer, and the BP simulation has them playing .441 ball the rest of the way. Maybe they're right but that is quite a disparity.

[Fratboy]

Keep in mind, of course, the projection is based on PECOTA, which forecasted them to be, what, a 92 loss team at the beginning of the season? At some point, I think the forecasting system gets tweaked to use a greater balance of actual performance to date than PECOTA, since the actual performance becomes more predictive of final results than PECOTA.

For comparison, coolstandings "smart" methodology uses a straight pyth, and projects them to 86 or so wins. I hope it's a fascinating three-way battle to the wire, and I'm rooting for the Buccos big time. If they don't win, then I'd like a 4-way tie atop the division and for Bud Selig to throw his hands up like he did at the 2002 All Star Game.

[MentalDisabldLst]

Anyone considering a summertime road trip to Pittsburgh would find that the ballpark not only deserves its reputation as beautiful, spacious, and comfortable - which it has each year - but now has an electric crowd that is approaching sell-outs many nights. And tickets can be had for $9-11. If you buy early you can get stuff near the opposing dugout for $30/seat.

Those without an NL rooting interest may find a real good candidate here. They have a lot of homegrown talent which has just hit its stride, including starter Paul Maholm, closer Joel Hanrahan, and of course Andrew McCutchen. Their rotation is aged 26, 27, 28, 29 and 30 and besides Maholm, features MFY reclamation project Jeff Karstens (PIT property the last 4 years after being traded with Jose Tabata for Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady), who is blowing them away in the NL Central. The only guy on their team who is hard to root for is Lyle Overbay.

[MentalDisabldLst]

If they don't win, then I'd like a 4-way tie atop the division and for Bud Selig to throw his hands up like he did at the 2002 All Star Game.

If it happened, half of SoSH would furiously beat off to this result.

[Sea Dog]

Those without an NL rooting interest may find a real good candidate here. They have a lot of homegrown talent which has just hit its stride, including starter Paul Maholm, closer Joel Hanrahan, and of course Andrew McCutchen. Their rotation is aged 26, 27, 28, 29 and 30 and besides Maholm, features MFY reclamation project Jeff Karstens (PIT property the last 4 years after being traded with Jose Tabata for Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady), who is blowing them away in the NL Central. The only guy on their team who is hard to root for is Lyle Overbay.

Hanharan actually came to the Bucs with Lastings Milledge in a trade that sent Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett to the Nationals. At the time Milledge was the more notable piece as a guy who maybe needed a change in scenery. Hanharan, obviously, has turned into the best part about that trade.

Also, that Nady-Marte trade has worked for the Bucs not just for Karstens and Tabata, but also Ohlendorf (rotation but on DL) and Dan McCutchen (2.23 ERA in 48 1/3 innings out of the bullpen). Unfortunately, the Bay trade with the Red Sox and Dodgers (Andy LaRoche, Bryan Morris, Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss) days later didn't work out near as well.

[CaptainLaddie]

Their bullpen is CRAZY! The top four guys (Hanrahan, McCutchen, Resop and Veras) have ERA+s of 298, 168, 111, and 118 -- and a combined K/9 of 8.2 and K/BB of 2.76.

[gammoseditor]

Unfortunately, the Bay trade with the Red Sox and Dodgers (Andy LaRoche, Bryan Morris, Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss) days later didn't work out near as well.

While I agree with you, I just wanted to point out that Morris has recently been moved to the bullpen and has pitched great in AA, and he's not old for the league. He could still be a useful piece. Not nearly enough to trade Bay, but a useful piece.

[Sea Dog]

Bucs have outscored the Reds 3-0 in two games this week and find themselves in first place by a half-game for a second consecutive day. Even forgetting them in first place, had someone told me the Bucs would be seven games above .500 in late July when the season began, I would've laughed.

Pirates are 0-13 against the Brewers, Braves, Marlins and Indians, 51-31 against the rest of baseball.

[John DiFool]

I love seeing a small market team build successfully with drafting and development.

And this one's not in our division!

If they were in our division they'd barely beat out the O's. Maybe.

As far as projections and W3's and such go, if you merely examine their stats vs. their opponent's stats, you'd notice that their opponents have 44 more hits and 18 more home runs, giving them +8/+6/+17 in BA/OBP/SLG respectively. This kind of thing happens more often than you'd expect, and typically requires the below-average team to overachieve like crazy in a weak division.

Edited by John DiFool, 20 July 2011 - 11:25 AM.

[Dehere]

Pirates are 0-13 against the Brewers, Braves, Marlins and Indians, 51-31 against the rest of baseball.

Pirates have been a great argument against interleague play for the last couple years. As a low payroll team they simply can't afford to pay for a meaningful bat if that person doesn't get to play every day, and as a result they've been at a sizable disadvantage when playing in AL parks. Their road record in interleague play has been absurdly poor, even for a team that was bad in general in 2009 and 2010.

[Sea Dog]

If they were in our division they'd barely beat out the O's. Maybe.

I don't know about that. The Bucs' ERA (8th, 3.36) ranks close to the Yankees (9th, 3.50) and Rays (10th, 3.57). The Orioles rank 30th (4.85). I know the Bucs have had more than their share of luck, and they're in the NL without the DH, but until the other shoe drops ...

[Brianish]

If they were in our division they'd barely beat out the O's. Maybe.

My only point was I don't have to be conflicted about appreciating their success. I didn't tag them as world-beaters.

[grsharky7]

The talk around here before the Sox came to town in June was playing for a .500 season and hoping not to get curb stomped by the Sox. I heard one guy say that if they took 2 of 3 from Boston they were for real and they would contend for the rest of the year. They were 37-37 on June 23rd when Boston came in and they are 12-7 since then. They have played Toronto, Houston (2), Washington, Chicago, and the Reds. They've won 5 of those series and split with Washington. Those teams are not exactly world beaters, so I'm still a little skeptical.

They have a stretch coming up that is pretty tough. They did just take 2 out of 3 from the Reds. Now they have St. Louis, @ Atlanta, @ Philly. That is a pretty rough 10 game stretch coming up, then they get a bit of a reprieve with 4 at home vs Chicago and then 3 at home vs SD. After that it gets pretty bad again with @ SF (3), @ Mil (3), St. Louis (3), Cincy (3), Mil (4), @ St. Louis (4). That takes them up to August 28th, if they are still in the hunt after that stretch I'll be a believer.

They have been winning a lot of close games, and have been riding that pen pretty hard. They are only +13 this season in Run Diff.

[DanoooME]

I don't know about that. The Bucs' ERA (8th, 3.36) ranks close to the Yankees (9th, 3.50) and Rays (10th, 3.57). The Orioles rank 30th (4.85). I know the Bucs have had more than their share of luck, and they're in the NL without the DH, but until the other shoe drops ...

And unlike the Yankees and Rays, the Pirates play in one of the 3 or 4 best pitcher's parks in the majors.

[Spacemans Bong]

Tampa's not a pitcher's park? Since when?

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Tampa's not a pitcher's park? Since when?

No kidding. Tampa's one of the best pitcher's parks in the majors this year and has strongly been a pitcher's park 3 years running. At its least-pitcher friendly stage, it was barely above neutral (102/101).

The Trop is an absolute joke of a stadium, but it does one thing pretty damn well: suppress offense.

[Brianish]

No kidding. Tampa's one of the best pitcher's parks in the majors this year and has strongly been a pitcher's park 3 years running. At its least-pitcher friendly stage, it was barely above neutral (102/101).

This is a question that mostly spins from my ignorance of how park factors are calculated, but...

Is it possible some of that is partially due to the increased quality of their pitchers? That is to say, starting roughly three years ago, their park started hosting better pitchers regularly, meaning fewer runs were given up inside it, making it look more like a pitcher's park. Might the real issue be somewhere in the middle (considering their previous awful pitching).

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

This is a question that mostly spins from my ignorance of how park factors are calculated, but...

Is it possible some of that is partially due to the increased quality of their pitchers? That is to say, starting roughly three years ago, their park started hosting better pitchers regularly, meaning fewer runs were given up inside it, making it look more like a pitcher's park. Might the real issue be somewhere in the middle (considering their previous awful pitching).

It was a pitcher's park when the team sucked too.

[Brianish]

Fair enough.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Fair enough.

Here's the link to the park factors: The Trop.

Note that in the years when it wasn't an obscene pitcher's park, it was still barely better than neutral. And from 2002-2004 it really was a great pitcher's park even as the Rays won only 55, 63, and 70 games in those seasons. In 2002 the Rays had a team ERA of 5.29 despite having that park as home field, which shows you pretty clearly why they only won 55 games.

[DanoooME]

I stand corrected. I guess I remember the numbers from the mid-Aughts where it was a slight pitcher's park, but not one of the top 3 or 4.

[BucketOBalls]

It would be hilarious if the pirates made a huge offer to one of the 1B free agents from their division, both to hurt an opponent and shore up their talent base(not sure what their prospects are, but they have Overbay's corpse right now). The only danger is that management buys into the streak and tries to push the team over the top to fast(I think Huntington is smarter than that, but you never know). The other danger is that the fan base gets frustrated when they fall back to earth(We're seeing this with Seattle now).

[abty]

John Kruk was screaming how they need to trade for a guy like Beltran and to forget about Prospects. There's a reason nobody has hired that bubble of a man to run a team. The worst thing the Pirates can do is scrap 2012-2015 for a chance to be swept by the Phillies or Giants.

[grsharky7]

John Kruk was screaming how they need to trade for a guy like Beltran and to forget about Prospects. There's a reason nobody has hired that bubble of a man to run a team. The worst thing the Pirates can do is scrap 2012-2015 for a chance to be swept by the Phillies or Giants.

Agreed, however a lot of their fans have been screaming for a bat. But they are getting some guys back who should bolster the offense....

[Sea Dog]

And Pedro Alvarez has been raking during his Triple-A rehab assignment. With Brandon Wood and Chase d'Arnaud playing third base, there's no reason to keep him in Indy for too long. The Bucs sure could use another power threat in the middle of the lineup.

[smastroyin]

And Pedro Alvarez has been raking during his Triple-A rehab assignment. With Brandon Wood and Chase d'Arnaud playing third base, there's no reason to keep him in Indy for too long. The Bucs sure could use another power threat in the middle of the lineup.

And here is where Huntington I think is being awfully shortsighted, or listening too much to Hurdle. Alvarez hasn't been called up because they (probably being Hurdle) don't think he is ready to help win. Nevermind whether that is true, this is a guy who should be your best power hitter for the next 5 years, probably is right now, and you want to keep him in AAA because what, he doesn't kowtow properly? Because if you are worried about his performance, even his slumping at the beginning of the year is better than what they are getting out of Wood and d'Arnaud.

Maybe I'm wrong, but the rhetoric I am reading is that he is being taught a lesson. Maybe he did have enough of an attitude problem that it will help him long term, but that seems pretty unlikely. Let the kid learn major league pitching.

(Full disclosure, I am a frustrated fantasy owner of Alvarez and to this day I think Hurdle was a condescending douche in the 07 World Series)

[ookami7m]

And a single in the 10th, followed by a stolen base - advancing to 3rd on the throw into CF and a sac-fly later the Pirates beat the Cards and are tied for first again.

[curly2]

And a single in the 10th, followed by a stolen base - advancing to 3rd on the throw into CF and a sac-fly later the Pirates beat the Cards and are tied for first again.

I don't expect the Pirates to hang in until the end, but this was a huge game for them to get. You can't host your biggest series in 19 years and get swept.

If nothing else, it was a nice gift to the fans and a step to show they're not going to be pushed around. And rallying from three separate deficits is nice, too.

[Sea Dog]

Glad the Bucs avoided the sweep. You're absolutely right, curly, they couldn't afford to get swept in this series. Not when the fans -- 34,000-plus each of the past three games -- were so amped before the Pirates head to Atlanta and Philly this week. Can't wait to watch the Bucs on ESPN tonight.

EDIT -- Presley to the DL, Alvarez called up.

Edited by Sea Dog, 25 July 2011 - 01:04 PM.

[Sea Dog]

I would love to hear Bud Selig wax poetic about the "human element" at the end of the season if the Bucs miss the playoffs by one game. Seriously, a 19-inning game between two teams chasing playoff spots cannot end with an egregiously blown call like this. Can't happen.

[Frank, Fenway]

Holy shit. Poor Pirates.

[Infield Infidel]

I've never seen a worse call in any sport. Henry handball included. Not only is the ump right there, but I think he knew he blew it and didn't try to fix it after. Disgraceful.

edit - link to video
http://espn.go.com/b...worst-call-ever

Edited by Infield Infidel, 27 July 2011 - 05:43 AM.

[radsoxfan]

Ball beat Lugo by 10 feet for sure, but watching the replay I think its debatable that the swipe tag actually missed him. Hard to tell.

Either way, surprised the ump made the call just because it would have been much easier to call him out.

[JMDurron]

Ball beat Lugo by 10 feet for sure, but watching the replay I think its debatable that the swipe tag actually missed him. Hard to tell.

Either way, surprised the ump made the call just because it would have been much easier to call him out.

Yeah, I saw one angle of the replay, plus the freeze frames here, and while I think you can see Lugo being hit with the swipe tag, it is not so obvious that I'd consider it to be this horribly blown call that it seems to be made out to be. It's not even close to the Galarraga gaffe last season in terms of terrible calls. It is just not obvious in either of those freeze frames that the tag is on Lugo. It probably was, but it's just not obvious that it was, which I think is the threshold for "I've never seen a worse call in any sport" comments.

[grsharky7]

It appears the Buccos may be reverting back to the Pirates of old. They have lost 3 in a row and 7 of their last 10. They did trade for Derek Lee and Ludwig so we will see if that bolsters their lineup. They get the next 7 at home against the Cubs and Padres, but after that the schedule gets brutal again.

[MentalDisabldLst]

Ludwick. Ryan Ludwick. Former all-star corner OF (2008, .966 OPS), currently sucking (.238/.301/.373/.674).

[Dehere]

They have lost 4 in a row but that includes a sweep by Philly in Philly including starts by Halladay and Lee. The third game in Philly went to a tenth inning.

Think the last three weeks have been a fair representation of who they are: not competitive with Philly, basically on par with the B-level NL teams (3-4 against STL and ATL, including the 19-inning loss on the Jerry Mears call), better than most of the league.

Ultimately I think it's as simple as this: they've got to win their remaining series with Milwaukee. The Brewers have owned the Pirates. If they win those series they can stay in it til the end, IMO. If not they're probably not good enough to make up that ground somewhere else.

Edited by Dehere, 02 August 2011 - 08:50 AM.

[Fratboy]

Coming up from August 16 through August 28, they've got two series apiece against the Brewers and Cards and a home series against the Reds thrown in for good measure. That stretch is gonna determine the division I think. If one team can pull away - and the Brewers are doing a good job of it so far - the division will be decided by Labor Day.

The Pirates have a ton of games remaining against the Cards and Brewers - 10 against each - but it's critical they beat up on the Cubs, Padres, Dodgers, and Astros when they can. All things considered, the Pirates' schedule is fairly easy; they've got a series against the Giants and then the 10 games against the Brewers, but the Pirates are a mediocre team.

I'd love for them to pull off the miracle. Going from 105 losses to a divisional title would be unprecedented in baseball history. For that matter, so would .500. Who wouldn't want to see October baseball in Pittsburgh?

[mt8thsw9th]

Ludwick. Ryan Ludwick. Former all-star corner OF (2008, .966 OPS), currently sucking (.238/.301/.373/.674).

Are you sure they didn't trade for Beethoven?

[Rudy Pemberton]

Will it surprise anyone when they go 75-87?

It was certainly a nice story for awhile, but this team just isn't very good.

[mt8thsw9th]

I don't know, I could see 76-86 or 74-88, but 75-87? I don't see that happening.