340 replies to this topic

[MentalDisabldLst]

Heyman at Sports Illustrated speculates that Wandy Rodriguez from the Astros might be available to help patch our "voyage of the damned"-style rotation.

* The Astros' Wandy Rodriguez may be as good as it gets among starting pitchers on this trade market, and that's assuming Houston consents to trading him, which is no certainty. The Astros are talking to other teams, but they remain something of a wild card because they have been reluctant to sell in the past and have a new owner coming in.

* The back ailment of Clay Buchholz and underperformance of John Lackey means the Red Sox could be a surprise team looking for a starting pitcher, too. Ace Jon Lester had to leave his start on Tuesday night with a back ailment but it's not being portrayed as serious.

Career .500 pitcher with 4.10 ERA and 7.6 K / 3.2 BB = 2.41 K/BB, all for Houston. Arrived at majors at age 26, now 32. This year he has a 3.25 ERA in 15 starts, and a 7.3 / 2.6 K/BB, but that K rate is somewhat lower than the previous 2 years and the WHIP and H/9 somewhat higher. We missed him in our series with the Astros. He's essentially league average and fairly durable.

Not sure I'd be excited to throw him out into the AL East when my upside is league average pitching, and the opportunity cost is not seeing Weiland get a shot or seeing if Millwood has anything left.

[twothousandone]

Heyman at Sports Illustrated speculates that Wandy Not sure I'd be excited to throw him out into the AL East when my upside is league average pitching, and the opportunity cost is not seeing Weiland get a shot or seeing if Millwood has anything left.

He's also got a three-year deal, so it's $25 million (including buyout) for 2012 and 2013.

Lester
Buchholz
Beckett
Lester
Wakefield
Rodriguez
Miller

And Dice-K wanting a rehab start or two in August of 2012.

That's depth. It's good to have. But it costs a lot in money and used up goodwill for the wanna' be starter who has to sit in the 'pen.

[EddieYost]

He's also got a three-year deal, so it's $25 million (including buyout) for 2012 and 2013.

Lester
Buchholz
Beckett
Lester
Wakefield
Rodriguez
Miller

And Dice-K wanting a rehab start or two in August of 2012.

That's depth. It's good to have. But it costs a lot in money and used up goodwill for the wanna' be starter who has to sit in the 'pen.

Lester probably shouldn't be on the list twice.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Why would the Sox trade for a starter? They've got pretty solid depth; guys like Wakefield, Miller, and Aceves are competent at worst; and you've still got Aceves, Doubront, and Millwood (for now, at least) as depth. A trade seems unlikely, to me, especially for a guy who probably wouldn't start a playoff game and is signed for multiple years.

[Adrian's Dome]

Why would the Sox trade for a starter? They've got pretty solid depth; guys like Wakefield, Miller, and Aceves are competent at worst; and you've still got Aceves, Doubront, and Millwood (for now, at least) as depth. A trade seems unlikely, to me, especially for a guy who probably wouldn't start a playoff game and is signed for multiple years.

Agreed, especially if he's coming over from the NL. Lester shouldn't miss much time, and there's also Weiland in your list of depth, who might be pitching his way into earning a shot next time a slot comes up.

If Theo makes a move, expect it to be for what everybody thought Mike Cameron would be: a competent right-handed bench bat. The team is pretty solid otherwise, barring injuries (Buchholz being the biggest wild card for the stretch, since Crawford and Lester should be back within the next two weeks.)

[DanoooME]

Lester probably shouldn't be on the list twice.

He was probably wishing for water (Lackey) to turn to wine (Lester)

[geoduck no quahog]

Why would the Sox trade for a starter? They've got pretty solid depth; guys like Wakefield, Miller, and Aceves are competent at worst; and you've still got Aceves, Doubront, and Millwood (for now, at least) as depth. A trade seems unlikely, to me, especially for a guy who probably wouldn't start a playoff game and is signed for multiple years.

I don't think this is a prime reason - but a peripheral reason for getting a starter is to pre-empt the Yankees. What pitcher are they after?

{Sox have lost 1.5 starters this year: Matsuzaka and Lackey. One may re-surface, but that's still a big hit to depth}.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I don't think this is a prime reason - but a peripheral reason for getting a starter is to pre-empt the Yankees. What pitcher are they after?

{Sox have lost 1.5 starters this year: Matsuzaka and Lackey. One may re-surface, but that's still a big hit to depth}.

If the Sox front office decides that starting pitcher isn't a need for this team, beating the Yankees to a player will not factor into it one bit. That'd be an awful way to run a team.

[geoduck no quahog]

I don't think it should ever be an artificial factor, but if an actual need coincides with denying a rival - that denial should enter into the analysis - even if only in a minor way.

I was implying that the Red Sox may have an actual need for another starter >Lackey/Miller if only for added depth. We know the Yankees need one.

[JakeRae]

I don't think it should ever be an artificial factor, but if an actual need coincides with denying a rival - that denial should enter into the analysis - even if only in a minor way.

I was implying that the Red Sox may have an actual need for another starter >Lackey/Miller if only for added depth. We know the Yankees need one.

If the Sox are going to make a move for a starter, I'd think it would have to be someone eligible for FA this offseason. They have 4 guys locked into their rotation next year, another guy making 8 figures to rehab, Wakefield, Miller, Weiland, Doubront, and Tazawa all with the organization next year. Wakefield might not actually be back, but I am assuming he will be until proven wrong.

Out of those guys, Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Lackey, Wakefield, and Miller will all demand 25-man roster spots and only Wakefield is an option in the bullpen. Guys like Wandy Rodriguez or Matt Garza, who are signed for multiple years and aren't cheap, don't really make much sense for this organization. I won't say that we have too much pitching. But, the Red Sox really don't have the room to add more pitching either.

[phragle]

Looking at the '12 and '13 FAs, and Elias for a possible McDonald replacement, the only players that are:

1. Right handed
2. Can play center
3. Better than McDonald
4. Bad enough to come cheap

Are Coco Crisp, Melky Cabrera, and Scott Hairston. I don't really know anything about Hairston, but Coco and Melky would be valuable upgrades.

Edited by phragle, 11 July 2011 - 06:38 PM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Looking at the '12 and '13 FAs, and Elias for a possible McDonald replacement, the only players that are:

1. Right handed
2. Can play center
3. Better than McDonald
4. Bad enough to come cheap

Are Coco Crisp, Melky Cabrera, and Scott Hairston. I don't really know anything about Hairston, but Coco and Melky would be valuable upgrades.

Are you talking about a replacement for the rest of this season, or the next two years to come?

I ask because it's very likely that Lin would put up a higher WAR in 2012-13 than any of the three guys you named as 4th OF -- even without any power. And after this year the only OF actually needing to be platooned will be signed for a $20+MM AAV and therefore won't be.

Whether it's Kalish or Reddick playing RF next season, the Sox shouldn't have to carry the same kind of player they thought they were getting in Mike Cameron. Or, if they find they do, they'll be able to pull someone like Reed Johnson out of the bargain bin.

[xjack]

Looking at the '12 and '13 FAs, and Elias for a possible McDonald replacement, the only players that are:

1. Right handed
2. Can play center
3. Better than McDonald
4. Bad enough to come cheap

Are Coco Crisp, Melky Cabrera, and Scott Hairston. I don't really know anything about Hairston, but Coco and Melky would be valuable upgrades.

I'm not sure any of these guys would be upgrades over McDonald. Yes, I realize McDonald is hitting .143, but his BABIP is .163. A simple reversion to the mean would translate to a BA of .270 or better. Plus, based on UZR, he's actually been a solidly above-average outfielder this year: http://www.fangraphs...867&position=OF

[czar]

I'm not sure any of these guys would be upgrades over McDonald. Yes, I realize McDonald is hitting .143, but his BABIP is .163. A simple reversion to the mean would translate to a BA of .270 or better. Plus, based on UZR, he's actually been a solidly above-average outfielder this year: http://www.fangraphs...867&position=OF

SSS aside, McDonald's xBABIP is only around 0.250 this season (mostly because his LD% is way down). Regress to that and he's hitting ~0.200 (19 K's in 75 AB) this season. While he should rebound somewhat, given the benefit of hindsight, he's been awful so far this year.

[xjack]

SSS aside, McDonald's xBABIP is only around 0.250 this season (mostly because his LD% is way down). Regress to that and he's hitting ~0.200 (19 K's in 75 AB) this season. While he should rebound somewhat, given the benefit of hindsight, he's been awful so far this year.

Yeah, I think it's pretty obvious he's been awful. Half your hits could be homers, you could be Gary Pettis with the glove, and you'd still be awful so long as you were hitting .143.

My point is that he's been very unlucky. A low LD% often accompanies a low BABIP. For example, when Adrian Beltre was struggling early in the year -- his BABIP was .214 on May 10 -- his LD% was only 16%. Beltre's LD% for June and July has been 21%. Two other BABIP underperformers -- Vernon Wells and Troy Tulowitzki -- have experienced similar increases in their LD% as their BABIPs have gradually rebounded to more normal levels.

Edited by xjack, 11 July 2011 - 07:48 PM.

[bosockboy]

Looking at the '12 and '13 FAs, and Elias for a possible McDonald replacement, the only players that are:

1. Right handed
2. Can play center
3. Better than McDonald
4. Bad enough to come cheap

Are Coco Crisp, Melky Cabrera, and Scott Hairston. I don't really know anything about Hairston, but Coco and Melky would be valuable upgrades.

I don't think Crisp has the arm to play RF.

[phragle]

Are you talking about a replacement for the rest of this season, or the next two years to come?

This year, but Melky is a free agent after next season. He would be easy enough to trade in a pinch if Lin is a more valuable option. Coco is a FA after this season.

[Rasputin]

I don't think Crisp has the arm to play RF.

He doesn't have the arm to play center either, but how often is that really going to matter?

[JakeRae]

Yeah, I think it's pretty obvious he's been awful. Half your hits could be homers, you could be Gary Pettis with the glove, and you'd still be awful so long as you were hitting .143.

My point is that he's been very unlucky. A low LD% often accompanies a low BABIP. For example, when Adrian Beltre was struggling early in the year -- his BABIP was .214 on May 10 -- his LD% was only 16%. Beltre's LD% for June and July has been 21%. Two other BABIP underperformers -- Vernon Wells and Troy Tulowitzki -- have experienced similar increases in their LD% as their BABIPs have gradually rebounded to more normal levels.

It's a bit off topic, but I wanted to highlight this post as a counterargument to a growing trend I've noticed. Specifically, people tend to quote batted ball distributions as evidence against regression. I've seen this both in favor of the ability of a strong performance to persist (LD% is high, therefore BABIP shouldn't be regressed) and like it was used here. In both cases, people are missing the essential point, that this post highlights, that we need to regress those distributions to the mean too.

With a decent MLB sample size, guys like Wells, Beltre, and Tulo, the easiest solution is to regress to career BABIP. Batted ball distribution fluctuate just like BABIP does, although to a lesser degree. Abnormal batted ball distributions, for the player in question, should be taken with a massive grain of salt. In the case of McDonald, none of this changes the fact that he is simply not a very good MLB player. But, it's important for all of us to remember that component rates fluctuate too and we need to regress everything, not just the things we are used to regressing.

Edited by JakeRae, 12 July 2011 - 12:41 AM.

[czar]

It's a bit off topic, but I wanted to highlight this post as a counterargument to a growing trend I've noticed. Specifically, people tend to quote batted ball distributions as evidence against regression. I've seen this both in favor of the ability of a strong performance to persist (LD% is high, therefore BABIP shouldn't be regressed) and like it was used here. In both cases, people are missing the essential point, that this post highlights, that we need to regress those distributions to the mean too.

With a decent MLB sample size, guys like Wells, Beltre, and Tulo, the easiest solution is to regress to career BABIP. Batted ball distribution fluctuate just like BABIP does, although to a lesser degree. Abnormal batted ball distributions, for the player in question, should be taken with a massive grain of salt. In the case of McDonald, none of this changes the fact that he is simply not a very good MLB player. But, it's important for all of us to remember that component rates fluctuate too and we need to regress everything, not just the things we are used to regressing.

In general, the easiest (and probably only statistically valid) way to use xBABIP (batted ball profiles) regression is in a post-hoc analysis. For players with established SS, three months of Adrian Gonzalez having a 10 LD% does not mean he has fallen off a cliff. However, if his BABIP during that time was 0.350, we know that during those three months, his counting stats outperformed his true performance. It's messier with projecting a player because you have to figure out how long of a declining (or improving) batted ball profile is sufficient to overwhelm career norms-- which is especially tricky when taking age, health, mechanics, etc. into account.

Again, McDonald is almost certainly not as bad as he has been this year, but he's 32, and unlikely to eclipse last season's .766 OPS, a figure that was (ironically) buoyed somewhat by a larger xBABIP-BABIP split. Honestly, I don't see any reason for him to still be on this team when Crawford comes back, given how Reddick has performed.

[Joshv02]

Again, McDonald is almost certainly not as bad as he has been this year, but he's 32, and unlikely to eclipse last season's .766 OPS, a figure that was (ironically) buoyed somewhat by a larger xBABIP-BABIP split. Honestly, I don't see any reason for him to still be on this team when Crawford comes back, given how Reddick has performed.

If you assume a 700 OPS for McDonald, and an 800 OPS for Reddick, McDonald will have a slightly better expected OPS against lefties assuming normal platoon splits (or regressing career platoon splits heavily toward normal). I think of McDonald as slightly better than that. When you factor in D and baserunning, Reddick is probably still the better bet, but it isn't by a landslide, I don't think.

Anyway, isn't the relevant question, now that Cameron is gone, which two stay: McDonald, Navarro, Sutton? I'd rather have McDonald than Sutton - Navarro can play every IF position better than Sutton, and McDonald can play every OF position better than Sutton, and both McDonald and Sutton will have similar offensive projections, while McDonald is a better baserunner (and can drop the occasional sacrifice). Plus, Drew has an option left. McDonald slides back to the 5th OF position, Sutton to AAA, and Navarro backs up all IF spots, and Theo can keep all assets for another day without harming the big league club.

[Eric Van]

Anyway, isn't the relevant question, now that Cameron is gone, which two stay: McDonald, Navarro, Sutton? I'd rather have McDonald than Sutton - Navarro can play every IF position better than Sutton, and McDonald can play every OF position better than Sutton, and both McDonald and Sutton will have similar offensive projections, while McDonald is a better baserunner (and can drop the occasional sacrifice). Plus, Drew has an option left. McDonald slides back to the 5th OF position, Sutton to AAA, and Navarro backs up all IF spots, and Theo can keep all assets for another day without harming the big league club.

I don't disagree with you that Navarro is, right now, probably a better bench player than Sutton. The question is, is the difference between them in the amount of PT they will get, worth the negative hit on Navarro's development from not playing every day at Pawtucket?

I don't think it is. I want him down there, hopefully mashing, while Sutton has proved to be a perfectly competent backup.

[twothousandone]

McDonald slides back to the 5th OF position,

This works if there’s a depth chart and even if back-up CF is also a consideration. But, despite the splits this season, RF against lefties is by default the #4 OF.

To say McDonald is #5 means Reddick and/or Drew play against lefties. We know what Drew can and can’t do against lefties, so if he’s not going to get a lot of rest in favor of Reddick against righties, Reddick’s time comes against lefties. As you suggest, it’s probably a toss-up, and IF Reddick can show an ability to hang in against lefties they may be able to get by next year with a value-priced RH back-up CF.

[SoxFanSince57]

It is not this often that Theo is this direct when talking about the July deadline and trade discussions.

Theo: "You'd have to be blind not to notice that we're not getting much out of right field. We're all expecting to get more out of it going forward. As I said earlier, it's a combination of letting the players with good track records play and, sooner or later, finding their stroke to produce and then also, especially while we're banged up, giving other guys opportunities and seeing who we can get hot. These things all work themselves out.

"I guess I am encouraged by the fact that we can be where we are offensively without much, if anything at all, out of right field. It will get better. There's no way we're going to have the same production the rest of the year that we've had so far. We'll improve internally and, who knows, there's a chance we'll improve at certain spots externally at some point, too. It'll get better."

http://boston.redsox...ws_bos&c_id=bos

My reaction is that the Sox will work hard to acquire a RHH corner OF as a platoon partner with Reddick or simply as a starter in RF. Bye, bye JD!?

[xjack]

It is not this often that Theo is this direct when talking about the July deadline and trade discussions.


http://boston.redsox...ws_bos&c_id=bos

My reaction is that the Sox will work hard to acquire a RHH corner OF as a platoon partner with Reddick or simply as a starter in RF. Bye, bye JD!?

I'd rather find someone to platoon with Reddick, but one reason I'm willing to give McDonald a bit more rope is that the trade options seem limited.

There are currently 39 RHH OFs in the majors with an OPS above .770 over at least 25 plate appearances. Of those 39, all but five are major players with big contracts (Jose Batista, Matt Holliday, etc), young players unlikely to be traded (Jerry Sands, Mike Stanton, Nolan Riemold), or important pieces on contending teams (Johnny Gomes, Michael Cuddyer, Brent Lillibridge, Allen Craig). The five trade possibilities would seem to be:

Jeff Francouer
Reed Johnson
Juan Rivera
Chris Denorfia
Rajai Davis

Davis isn't really a RF. Rivera is a pretty poor defensive OF who was recently jettisoned by the Jays. That leaves Francouer, Johnson and Denorfia. Francouer's renaissance seems fully supported by his peripherals, Denorfia's 2011 is showing that 2010 wasn't a fluke, and Johnson has been a useful spare part for a while now. Based upon Fangraph comparisons, It's a pretty close call in terms of who is the best bet. Johnson has the best numbers (based on wOBA), but personally I'd like to see a little more power out of the right side of a right-field platoon.

Question is, what would one of those three players cost? Looking at last year's trades, the closest comparable seems to be the Yankees trading Mark Melancon to the Astros for Lance Berkman (who, remember, had a poor year in '10.) Melancon has a good arm and had put up decent numbers for the Yankees in '10, before emerging as an okay closer for the Astros this year.

Who would be our Mark Melancon? Seems to me the answers would be either Doubrant or Weiland, and given the fragile state of the pitching staff, I don't think we could afford to give up either. Unless Theo can make a deal with high-single-A talent, I think the Sox would be better off giving McDonald a longer look.

[LesterFan]

SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman #redsox have called on kuroda, according to AL source. so they are looking at SPs. #tigers, #yankees also like kuroda.

[Al Zarilla]

SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman #redsox have called on kuroda, according to AL source. so they are looking at SPs. #tigers, #yankees also like kuroda.

Sox looking at SPs, can look at this a couple of ways.

1. Sox are kicking tires, and also don't let the Yankees grab what's available carte blanche.

2. Sox are worried about the health of one or more of Lester/Buchholz/Beckett. Well, Lackey too.

[luckysox]

Sox looking at SPs, can look at this a couple of ways.

1. Sox are kicking tires, and also don't let the Yankees grab what's available carte blanche.

2. Sox are worried about the health of one or more of Lester/Buchholz/Beckett. Well, Lackey too.

They are almost obligated to look right now until Lester and Buch get back on the mound and prove through a few starts that they are healthy enough to get through the season. I like Miller and Wake as much as the next girl, but I worry if one of them has to spell either of those guys for the entire 2nd half. Replacing Dice K is one thing, replacing Lester or Buch is a whole different can of worms.

I won't even acknowledge that Beckett may be injured. No no no no no.

[xjack]

Wonder whether the Tigers would trade Magglio Ordonez for JD Drew? My problem for yours... The Sox need a RH bat more than the Tigers need at LH bat, but Drew is certainly a better defensive player

[BucketOBalls]

Wonder whether the Tigers would trade Magglio Ordonez for JD Drew? My problem for yours... The Sox need a RH bat more than the Tigers need at LH bat, but Drew is certainly a better defensive player

I'm sure they would; Maggs has actually hit worse than Drew this year. Drew is at least useful in the field. Maggs doesn't seem useful anywhere.

[John DiFool]

That's it-we definitely need a 4th starter. Wakes has been OK but I don't want him starting any postseason games, and Lackey goes without saying.

[Rasputin]

That's it-we definitely need a 4th starter. Wakes has been OK but I don't want him starting any postseason games, and Lackey goes without saying.

Lackey didn't actually pitch all that poorly today.

I think, more and more, the entire rest of the season depends on the health of Clay Buchholz.

[Bdanahy14]

I think, more and more, the entire rest of the season depends on the health of Clay Buchholz.

That seems a bit much, no? They have scored 22 runs more than the next closest team. Most teams struggle like hell to find a decent third starter - and would kill to have Beckett and Lester as their 1-2. If Lackey can be half decent - he's you're three. I mean, I hope like hell Clay's back comes around (and expect it will) - but wouldn't go as far to say that our season depends on his health.

Edited by Bdanahy14, 17 July 2011 - 01:05 AM.

[Rasputin]

That seems a bit much, no? They have scored 22 runs more than the next closest team. Most teams struggle like hell to find a decent third starter - and would kill to have Beckett and Lester as their 1-2. If Lackey can be half decent - he's you're three. I mean, I hope like hell Clay's back comes around (and expect it will) - but wouldn't go as far to say that our season depends on his health.

What's the biggest variable from here on out? Obviously a lot of things can happen. Beckett and Lester can blow their arms out. Lackey can pitch like Pedro for two months. But what is the one thing where you can't really nail down a most likely scenario? Would it surprise you if Buchholz came back in a couple weeks and pitched really well for the rest of the season? Would it surprise you if he's pretty much lost for the season?

Right now we're looking at a playoff rotation of Beckett, Lester, and two of Wakefield, Miller, Weiland, Lackey, and maybe Aceves. Doesn't slotting Buchholz in there and taking one of those guys improve your chances dramatically?

Don't get me wrong, we're a pretty goddamn good team regardless and we can win the world series if Buchholz gets kidnapped by aliens but if we're going into Game 3 with one of these guys pitching then we damn well better have won Games 1 and 2 because we're an big underdog in games 3 and 4. A much bigger underdog than our opponent will have been in games one and two.

Unless of course the Phillies don't make it, then we're gonna crush 'em.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

I would inquire about Ubaldo Jimenez if I were Theo and then simply keep tabs on what the Yankees are doing. Back of the rotation stuff like Kuroda doesn't seem to be too much of an upgrade over Weiland or other organizational depth. I have even heard a rumor that the sox were kicking the tires on old friend Bronson Arroyo. That doesn't seem like much of a move especially when you're looking at Postseason quality arms. I hated the Suppan deal years ago and I hate a similar move now.

As for hitters I think RH bench help can be found relatively cheaply.

[Mystic Merlin]

The Yankees are interested? Well, oh no.

Them and every other big market contender.

The Rockies have him at $4.2M next season, then hold club options at $5.75M and $8M in '13 and '14, respectively. They probably aren't gonna jettison him.

[xjack]

I'm sure they would; Maggs has actually hit worse than Drew this year. Drew is at least useful in the field. Maggs doesn't seem useful anywhere.

Yes, but the Sox would be shedding salary, which would be a plus given that Drew is candidate to be released anyway. Question is, would Ordonez be a better platoon partner than D McDonald. He has hit better lately, probably because his BABIP has rebounded to more normal levels.

[JimBoSox9]

Possible overreaction: any answer about right field that isn't "Ride Reddick Ride" is fucking retarded. Let the kid play till he proves he can't, seriously. Let Kalish get back on track next year until he can be a serious trade chip (hopefully). Fuck Beltran an Cuddyer and Francour. Josh can play.

This team needs a starting pitcher and perpetually a bullpen arm if possible. Rational upgrade discussion should be limited to that and possibly a defensive SS upgrade.

[OCD SS]

The Yankees are interested? Well, oh no.

Them and every other big market contender.

The Rockies have him at $4.2M next season, then hold club options at $5.75M and $8M in '13 and '14, respectively. They probably aren't gonna jettison him.

One quibble is that if he's traded he can void his '14 option and become a free agent, which he would be almost certain to do.

[koufax32]

The Yankees are interested? Well, oh no.

Them and every other big market contender.

The Rockies have him at $4.2M next season, then hold club options at $5.75M and $8M in '13 and '14, respectively. They probably aren't gonna jettison him.

Wow. Then they have no incentive to trade him. Is this just another annoying case of the Yankees and their Dan base thinking someone is available just because they want him and that "everyone has a price?" Even if COL didn't have the prospect of playoffs the next few years they still wouldn't have much incentive to trade him.

[Rasputin]

Possible overreaction: any answer about right field that isn't "Ride Reddick Ride" is fucking retarded. Let the kid play till he proves he can't, seriously. Let Kalish get back on track next year until he can be a serious trade chip (hopefully). Fuck Beltran an Cuddyer and Francour. Josh can play.

This team needs a starting pitcher and perpetually a bullpen arm if possible. Rational upgrade discussion should be limited to that and possibly a defensive SS upgrade.

And a RHH off the bench.

But seriously, if Reddick doesn't steal time from Drew going forward, it's ahhh, ridiculous.

[bosockboy]

Wow. Then they have no incentive to trade him. Is this just another annoying case of the Yankees and their Dan base thinking someone is available just because they want him and that "everyone has a price?" Even if COL didn't have the prospect of playoffs the next few years they still wouldn't have much incentive to trade him.

Colorado is actually shopping him. They want to capitalize on the market for SP.

[xjack]

I would inquire about Ubaldo Jimenez if I were Theo and then simply keep tabs on what the Yankees are doing. Back of the rotation stuff like Kuroda doesn't seem to be too much of an upgrade over Weiland or other organizational depth.

Other than the fact that his average fastball speed is 2 mph faster, is there any evidence Jimenez is a better pitcher than Kuroda? I certainly can't find any.

[koufax32]

Colorado is actually shopping him. They want to capitalize on the market for SP.

Where is this story coming from?

NM. found it in the Yankee discussion

They'll trade hum because they're "annoyed" with him and will do so for 3 of the best prospects in the game plus a rookie sp with moderate promise.
I'd trade Buchholz for that.

Edited by koufax32, 18 July 2011 - 09:42 AM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Possible overreaction: any answer about right field that isn't "Ride Reddick Ride" is fucking retarded. Let the kid play till he proves he can't, seriously.

Quoted for truth -- JD can have enjoy a nice long DL stint on the porch swing this summer, but Reddick needs to keep getting regular MLB play until he cools down -- it's looking more and more like he really should be RF-of-the-future. And the future is now.


Use organizational depth caught in the 40-man squeeze for Reyes if possible, empty the farm to bring back Hanley, or stand pat and hope that Lowrie comes back to capture a little bit of April's magic when the post-season rolls around. But SS is the only position that might need an external upgrade.

As for pitching, the Sox should be involved in any and all conversations. But unless Sean Marshall is available, it all comes down to whether the acquisition cost is worth it -- because there's little likely to be out there better than what the Sox have due back from the DL or already in the minors.

[TheoShmeo]

Colorado is actually shopping him. They want to capitalize on the market for SP.

And more to the point, as much as I hate to defend the Yankees, any team with an area of need is well served by casting as wide a net as possible for potential acquisitions.

The media reports that the Sox and Yankees have inquired about Garza and Jiminez and we dutifully discuss it, but my guess is that two teams have made inquiries on many other players without the media picking up on it, and that some of the targets are on not on the market while others are available only for a "blowaway" offer.

In short, asking about any player isn't arrogance, it's what GMs should be doing...especially GMs with big wallets.

[trekfan55]

Where is this story coming from?

NM. found it in the Yankee discussion

They'll trade hum because they're "annoyed" with him and will do so for 3 of the best prospects in the game plus a rookie sp with moderate promise.
I'd trade Buchholz for that.

From Buster Olney via Twitter:

Buster_ESPN Buster Olney
Contrary to report, Yankees and Rockies haven't started exchanging names in any Jimenez talks. Odds that NYY/COL work out deal are very slim

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Other than the fact that his average fastball speed is 2 mph faster, is there any evidence Jimenez is a better pitcher than Kuroda? I certainly can't find any.

Their xFIP and FIP are similar this season, and neither has an unsustainable BABIP, but Kuroda is leaving about 77% on base while Jimenez is only leaving around 66% on... a gap that might shrink going forward and favor Jimenez. Jimenez strikes out significantly more guys while Kuroda has a nice advantage in walk rate, so it depends on how projectable you think each measure is. Beyond that, Jimenez has two straight years of a 5.7 or higher WAR while Kuroda has just one year of 4.2 with everything else being significantly lower. And Jimenez has done this while pitching in Colorado, which is a launching pad, even with the humidor. He even has an advantage over Kuroda in HR/FB%, despite the difference in park factors (LA has been neutral or worse for home runs in each of the last three seasons, and Coors has been the top run scoring environment in baseball in that time while LA has been in the bottom half of the majors).

If you put them both in the same ball park for a season, I'd have hard time laying down a bet on Kuroda coming out the other side as the better pitcher.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 18 July 2011 - 11:09 AM.

[xjack]

(Edit... I think I misunderstood Koufax's argument)

Over a five year career, Jimenez has pitched like an ace for only one half a season -- April to June 2010. He's lost 3 mph off his fastball this year, and if you check out his peripherals during last year's stellar first half, they were good but not great and actually very similar to the numbers he put up in his more pedestrian second half of 2010.

First half '10: 3.2 bb/9, 8.1 k/9, 0.4 hr/9
ERA: 1.83
xERA: 3.50

Second half: 4.3 bb/9, 9.3 k/9, 0.4 hr/9
ERA: 3.98
xERA: 3.78

The difference is he got a little lucky in the first half, with a .250 BABIP and a high strand rate (% of baserunners failing to score) of 84%. Were it not for that bit of luck, nobody would consider him a number one starter. And it's not as if he's been dramatically better away from Coors Field: Until this year, he actually had a higher road ERA ( 3.56 from 2008-2001) than home ERA (3.28).

Edited by xjack, 18 July 2011 - 11:21 AM.

[kneemoe]

Why?

Over a five year career, Jimenez has pitched like an ace for only one half a season -- April to June 2010. He's lost 3 mph off his fastball this year, and if you check out his peripherals during last year's stellar first half, they were good but not great and actually very similar to the numbers he put up in his more pedestrian second half of 2010.

First half '10: 3.2 bb/9, 8.1 k/9, 0.4 hr/9
ERA: 1.83
xERA: 3.50

Second half: 4.3 bb/9, 9.3 k/9, 0.4 hr/9
ERA: 3.98
xERA: 3.78

The difference is he got a little lucky in the first half, with a .250 BABIP and a high strand rate (% of baserunners failing to score) of 84%. Were it not for that bit of luck, nobody would consider him a number one starter. And it's not as if he's been dramatically better away from Coors Field: Until this year, he actually had a higher road ERA ( 3.56 from 2008-2001) than home ERA (3.28).

I think koufax was simply saying he'd even trade Buch for that haul, it wasn't a comment on Jimenez. (of course, I could be reading that wrong)