96 replies to this topic

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Where does everyone see these picks slotting in the system, assuming they ALL sign? My top 10 would look like:

1. Iglesias
2. Ranaudo
3. Barnes
4. Swihart
5. Cecchini
6. Bradley
7. Weiland
8. Owens
9. Reddick
10. Middlebrooks

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 07 June 2011 - 05:12 PM.

[RedOctober3829]

Where does everyone see these picks slotting in the system, assuming they ALL sign? My top 10 would look like:

1. Iglesias
2. Ranaudo
3. Barnes
4. Swihart
5. Cecchini
6. Bradley
7. Weiland
8. Owens
9. Reddick
10. Middlebrooks

I like that top 10. Golson can't be far from that top 10 either.

[phragle]

Where does everyone see these picks slotting in the system, assuming they ALL sign? My top 10 would look like:

If I us SP's top ten:

Kalish
Iggy
Ranaudo
Barnes
JBJ
Queen Felix
Navarro
Swihart
WMB
Reddick
Weiland
Britton
Brentz
Owens

[Midre Cum Ingz]

Where does everyone see these picks slotting in the system, assuming they ALL sign? My top 10 would look like:

1. Iglesias
2. Ranaudo
3. Barnes
4. Swihart
5. Cecchini
6. Bradley
7. Weiland
8. Owens
9. Reddick
10. Middlebrooks

How come you have Weiland ahead of CBM?

[phragle]

How come you have Weiland ahead of CBM?

CBM? You mean Roy Halladay Jr.?

[TheGoldenGreek33]

CBM? You mean Roy Halladay Jr.?

Nah, he's only 6-1.

CBM's certainly got the numbers, but you really have to believe he'll stick as a SP to rank him that high.


Obviously, I don't believe he will.

[Quintanariffic]

How come you have Weiland ahead of CBM?

More importantly, how do you have Cecchini not just ahead of Coyle but also in the Top 10?

[Midre Cum Ingz]

Nah, he's only 6-1.

CBM's certainly got the numbers, but you really have to believe he'll stick as a SP to rank him that high.


Obviously, I don't believe he will.

Is it the mechanics?

Because I don't see how a guy with Cahill's sinker, a plus slider according to Theo, and a changeup that flashed plus in JuCo according to Theo, alongside plus, if not plus-plus, command wouldn't make it as a starter.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/r ... ct/?page=2

[Midre Cum Ingz]

More importantly, how do you have Cecchini not just ahead of Coyle but also in the Top 10?

Forgot about Coyle.

Easy top 5 prospect in the system for me.

[phragle]

Sinker ballers don't need the size of a power pitcher Greek

[phragle]

I have no idea what my top 10 would even be. Our farm has depth, but lacks the sexy blue chippers. I don't even think Swihart or Owens would make my top 10.

[Midre Cum Ingz]

Sinker ballers don't need the size of a power pitcher Greek

He's listed at 6'2 anyway. Not tall for a Major League starting pitcher but certainly not short (not that you were calling him short...just wanted to point that out).

Edited by Midre Cum Ingz, 07 June 2011 - 05:53 PM.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

More importantly, how do you have Cecchini not just ahead of Coyle but also in the Top 10?

Cecchini is a personal cheeseball of mine. That's all.

[phragle]

Is it the mechanics?

WELL IT ISN'T THE NUMBERS!

[Midre Cum Ingz]

Sinker ballers don't need the size of a power pitcher Greek

And if the reservation is velocity then I don't understand that either...

CBM has roughly the same velo as Hellickson, Chacin, Hudson, CJ Wilson, Dream Weaver, Haren, Jaime Garcia, Jurrjens, and Cahill.

FB movement, command, and quality secondary stuff all day/air day over FB velo.

[Quintanariffic]

Cecchini is a personal cheeseball of mine. That's all.

Will be interesting to see what he can do once he starts playing.

If he turns out to be a better prospect than Coyle currently looks, that's one hell of a cheesball.

[phragle]

Will be interesting to see what he can do once he starts playing.

If he turns out to be a better prospect than Coyle currently looks, that's one hell of a cheesball.

He was more highly regarded when drafted right?

[TheGoldenGreek33]

He was more highly regarded when drafted right?

Correct.

[Midre Cum Ingz]

It's because he doesn't throw mid-upper 90's.

I just don't see him remaining a SP in the AL East with an upper-80's fastball. I don't care how good his command is. His off-speed stuff is decent, but again, the lack of a put away pitch makes me bearish on his chances to start. Hope I'm wrong.

FWIW, some guy on SP said that he was sitting 90-91 the other day.

And it's not just the command. CBM has plus-plus movement leading to a career groundball rate of about 65%.

Hellickson sits 90-91 and is dominating the AL East. Now granted, Hellboy has a filthy changeup. But if CBM really does have Cahill's movement on the sinker, then I think barring significant injuries, he's gonna be a #2/#3 starter.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

FWIW, some guy on SP said that he was sitting 90-91 the other day.

And it's not just the command. CBM has plus-plus movement leading to a career groundball rate of about 65%.

Hellickson sits 90-91 and is dominating the AL East. Now granted, Hellboy has a filthy changeup. But if CBM really does have Cahill's movement on the sinker, then I think barring significant injuries, he's gonna be a #2/#3 starter.

I can't really say, either way. I've only seen CBM once, so I'm just going by BA:

Jim Callis: Balcom-Miller is a guy I'm having a hard time jamming into the Top 30. He literally is No. 31 right now, so if you buy the Handbook directly from us, you'll see him in our bonus supplement. Maybe the best way of putting it is that the Red Sox have several pitchers with higher ceilings, but not many with higher floors. He has very good command of three average pitches and has good sink on his 88-92 mph fastball.


That's his upside—a solid No. 4 starter. You can certainly make a case for Balcom-Miller on the Top 30, and as I said, he's No. 31 right now. But I'd have a hard time leaving off Lin or Jacobs or Bogaerts to get him in there.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 07 June 2011 - 06:17 PM.

[phragle]

Maybe CBM will learn the classic Red Sox cutter that will help. It will also improve my Halladay Jr theory.

[someoneanywhere]

I have no idea what my top 10 would even be. Our farm has depth, but lacks the sexy blue chippers. I don't even think Swihart or Owens would make my top 10.

If by blue chippers you mean no-brainers -- the Heywards and Hosmers of the world -- sure. But there is some serious high-ceiling guys in the lower As right now. They'll need to develop, and some could miss, but if it all comes together, there could be as many as 3-5 studs on the way.

[phragle]

If by blue chippers you mean no-brainers -- the Heywards and Hosmers of the world -- sure. But there is some serious high-ceiling guys in the lower As right now. They'll need to develop, and some could miss, but if it all comes together, there could be as many as 3-5 studs on the way.

I know who Henry Ramos is.

[Quintanariffic]

He was more highly regarded when drafted right?

Yup. But he should be healthy by now and is toiling in XST whereas Coyle got an aggressive placement in Greenville and, but for a lousy BABIP, would be tearing up the SAL. As it is, he is a well-above avg hitter in that league while being quite young for the the league. He's a lock for Salem next year while there is zero track record on Cecchini. Cecchini is also 6 months older.

[Bigpupp]

Yup. But he should be healthy by now and is toiling in XST whereas Coyle got an aggressive placement in Greenville and, but for a lousy BABIP, would be tearing up the SAL. As it is, he is a well-above avg hitter in that league while being quite young for the the league. He's a lock for Salem next year while there is zero track record on Cecchini. Cecchini is also 6 months older.

The biggest thing to keep in mind is that having Cecchini ahead of Coyle on a prospect list is in no way a bad thing for Coyle. He is who he is and is doing spectacuarly. I think a lot of people have Cecchini ahead of Coyle still is because these people don't look at where these players are currently as being indicative of where they will be in the future. Yes, Coyle is off to an amazing start, but Cecchini still has the body and tools to be that much better.

Doesn't mean it won't happen, but there are still plenty of reasons why people have them in the order they do....

[Quintanariffic]

The biggest thing to keep in mind is that having Cecchini ahead of Coyle on a prospect list is in no way a bad thing for Coyle. He is who he is and is doing spectacuarly. I think a lot of people have Cecchini ahead of Coyle still is because these people don't look at where these players are currently as being indicative of where they will be in the future. Yes, Coyle is off to an amazing start, but Cecchini still has the body and tools to be that much better.

Doesn't mean it won't happen, but there are still plenty of reasons why people have them in the order they do....

I get that. Totally fair point.

But the fact that the Sox saw both in ST, and made the evaluation that Coyle was ready for Greenville but Cecchini wasn't says something to me. It's not like Garcia, Renfroe and LeBlanc (current holders of 3b, SS and DH positions respectively) are can't miss prospects who should be moved around a bit to accommodate Cecchini if he were ready.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

But the fact that the Sox saw both in ST, and made the evaluation that Coyle was ready for Greenville but Cecchini wasn't says something to me.

All it says to me is that he missed a lot of time because of the knee injury and still needed time to catch up on not facing live pitching in over a year. I highly doubt it was a talent issue.

[someoneanywhere]

I know who Henry Ramos is.

He is going to be Somar.

He's that dynamic.

[TomRicardo]

Where does everyone see these picks slotting in the system, assuming they ALL sign? My top 10 would look like:

1. Iglesias
2. Ranaudo
3. Barnes
4. Swihart
5. Cecchini
6. Bradley
7. Weiland
8. Owens
9. Reddick
10. Middlebrooks

So your top ten contains five people who haven't even played an inning of professional ball? Awesome. You should probably put a Dominican infant in there for good measure. THINK OF THE POTENTIAL

[mabrowndog]

To be fair, Baseball America routinely does that in their rankings. They had Ranaudo #4 and Cecchini #10 when they published the Sox' Top 10 in November, and both moved up after the Gonzalez trade.

Edited by mabrowndog, 08 June 2011 - 11:48 AM.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

So your top ten contains five people who haven't even played an inning of professional ball? Awesome. You should probably put a Dominican infant in there for good measure. THINK OF THE POTENTIAL

Yeah, because the Sox system was just loaded with talent before the draft.

Stick to the major leagues... or P&G....

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 08 June 2011 - 12:04 PM.

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

You should probably put a Dominican infant in there for good measure. THINK OF THE POTENTIAL

It turns out the Dominican infant is 10 years old and already throws harder than Tim Wakefield.

[Cuzittt]

Yeah, because the Sox system was just loaded with talent before the draft.

Stick to the major leagues... or P&G....

Don't go there. I follow the Minor Leagues. I said the same thing as Tom (to myself... I didn't write it anywhere). 5 of your top 8 have not played an inning of professional ball. It seems silly to me.

Now, I am not saying you are wrong. If you rank prospects solely on potential ceiling... but I happen to think that actual performance of players should be an active criteria for ranking prospects. But... that's just me.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Don't go there. I follow the Minor Leagues. I said the same thing as Tom (to myself... I didn't write it anywhere). 5 of your top 8 have not played an inning of professional ball. It seems silly to me.

Now, I am not saying you are wrong. If you rank prospects solely on potential ceiling... but I happen to think that actual performance of players should be an active criteria for ranking prospects. But... that's just me.

I know you and probably 80% of the community here are numbers-oriented, so you probably know that numbers really don't mean shit until AA. Seeing that the upper minors in the Sox system is relatively weak, yes I do rank based more on upside and probability than performance.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 08 June 2011 - 01:06 PM.

[Cuzittt]

I know you and probably 80% of the community here are numbers-oriented, so you probably know that numbers really don't mean shit until AA. Seeing that the upper minors in the Sox system is relatively weak, yes I do rank based more on upside and probability than performance.

Which is fine. But, don't expect everyone to follow your criteria either. [And, I've talked with Tom enough to know he actually does follow the minors...]

[Cuzittt]

But this is an actual response. Tom's response was trolling, as it normally is.

Just write "I don't think ranking players without experience over well regarded players with experience makes much sense," rather than whatever snarky bullshit Tom likes to add. It just makes conversations turn to shit in every thread he pulls his bullshit.

Assuming Tom's response is trolling... then ignore it. If you think it deserves a response on the merits... then respond with your philosophy. Trolls don't happen if people don't feed them.

[That being said, I didn't think Tom was trolling. I think he raised a legitimate issue... in his own special way.]

[alskor]

The goal in evaluating prospects (IMHO) is to predict future major league performance/quality. The minor leagues and performance in the minor leagues aren't a game we award "prospect points" for. If some kid was just drafted who I think is going to be a better player than someone raking in AAA than I rank him higher.

The logical extension is guys like Strasburg, Harper, Cole... would you really rank those players below other players in their respective systems simply because they have no pro experience? It was pretty clear Bryce Harper was really good at baseball before he took a pro AB. Why not rank him as such? Obviously getting pro data is nice/preferrable, and a lack of pro data is an extra question mark... but its clearly not an impediment in an of itself to ranking a guy high. The question is where to draw the line.

Its important to remember that all these players are prospects and not finished products, so we're just projecting what they will become no matter what level they are at. Its silly to me to think you can draw a line at A ball or short season and say "OK, NOW we know what this guy is actually about."

My post draft Sox top 10 would be (assuming they sign):

• Ranaudo
• Barnes
• Iglesias
• Swihart
• Owens
• Cecchini (I also LOVE Cecchini - top 15 kind of prospect in the draft last year before the knee. Gorgeous swing)
• Bradley
• Middlebrooks
• Reddick
• Brentz

That's just a first reaction and I reserve the right to change my opinion, of course...

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Which is fine. But, don't expect everyone to follow your criteria either.

I don't.

Assuming Tom's response is trolling... then ignore it.

Ok.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 08 June 2011 - 01:34 PM.

[TomRicardo]

Yeah, because the Sox system was just loaded with talent before the draft.

Stick to the major leagues... or P&G....

I am willing to bet at least two of your top ten won't make it to major league free agency where there are at least six guys currently playing in system that will.

There hasn't been a sure fire from draft to major league player in Epstein's tenor outside of Ellsbury and Papelbon. At some point every major leaguer that came through the system stumbled at some point. Buchholz was probably the second closest though he was sent AAA for a bit after struggling in the majors. Lester, Westmoreland, and Rizzo all had medical problems they overcame. Pedroia exceeded expectations. Bard tumbled as a starter.

It is simply silly to immediately put the potential Jason Places and Bryan Cox of the world up over players like Navarro or Reddick who are going to have Major League Careers. Hell both of those guys have chances to become All Star players.

And my response wasn't trolling, there are just some insane prospectophiles in here. I really don't think our system is as weak as some our saying nor do I think the players that are drafted are nearly as talented as some people are saying. Just a bunch of idiots jumping all over the new toys.

[TomRicardo]

And I can understand getting excited about projectable players but a lot of times people overlook great players.

Look at the best RHH power hitters in the game right now, Youkilis, Pujols, Bautista. All of these guys were late round slot guys. You would be bitching about their choice.

The road to Major Leagues is really long. I really can't see how you can rank anyone before they play professional game especially before they even sign.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

I am willing to bet at least two of your top ten won't make it to major league free agency where there are at least six guys currently playing in system that will.

Well, that's certainly subjective.

It is simply silly to immediately put the potential Jason Places and Bryan Cox of the world up over players like Navarro or Reddick who are going to have Major League Careers. Hell both of those guys have chances to become All Star players.

Which of the players that I had on my top 10 are as raw as Jason Place was/is? You're taking this to such an extreme. It's not like I have Almanzar or Younginer on there.

And my response wasn't trolling, there are just some insane prospectophiles in here. I really don't think our system is as weak as some our saying nor do I think the players that are drafted are nearly as talented as some people are saying. Just a bunch of idiots jumping all over the new toys.

Ok, bud.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 08 June 2011 - 02:10 PM.

[TomRicardo]

The logical extension is guys like Strasburg, Harper, Cole... would you really rank those players below other players in their respective systems simply because they have no pro experience? It was pretty clear Bryce Harper was really good at baseball before he took a pro AB. Why not rank him as such? Obviously getting pro data is nice/preferrable, and a lack of pro data is an extra question mark... but its clearly not an impediment in an of itself to ranking a guy high. The question is where to draw the line.

Number One picks are Number One picks for a reason. The average top ten pick averages double the career worth than 11-20 pick and 8 times more than a pick 21 through supplemental. Draft worth is roughly (I do mean roughly) .95^(X-1) (It dependent on position as well) where is X is the pick in the draft. I would imagine you could say BA's top 200 probably falls better into that formula however the talent in the draft is more of pyramid than a linear line.

[TomRicardo]

Well, that's certainly subjective.

What is objective about your analysis? You love the swing of a guy that played high school ball and just got off ACL surgery? How many times have you seen him swing a bat? What have you seen him swing against?

[Cuzittt]

Split this out from the Draft Game Thread.

[Cuzittt]

Its important to remember that all these players are prospects and not finished products, so we're just projecting what they will become no matter what level they are at. Its silly to me to think you can draw a line at A ball or short season and say "OK, NOW we know what this guy is actually about."

But... I'm not sure anyone actually says that. When I compile my Top 20 list, I try to balance ceiling with floor. I try to balance how far they are from the Majors. I try to balance a lot of things. As I am sure you do (and Greek does as well).

That being said, I do find that many evaluators tend to get inspired by the relative unknown. And, that is why we see 4 players from this draft jump directly into your top 7. All these players may turn out to be great major league ball players... but, is a 21-year old Jackie Bradley (who has yet to play a game with a wood bat) really that much of a better prospect than a 24 year old Josh Reddick (who has actual major league experience and appears to have fixed a major defect in his game?

Is soon to be 21 year old Matt Barnes really better than Kyle Weiland, Chris Balcom-Miller, Stephen Fife, or even Stolmy Pimentel?

In my evaluation, they are not. I do want to see some evidence that they can handle the grind of being a professional. We all know the stories of those who couldn't.

My post draft Sox top 10 would be (assuming they sign):

• Ranaudo
• Barnes
• Iglesias
• Swihart
• Owens
• Cecchini (I also LOVE Cecchini - top 15 kind of prospect in the draft last year before the knee. Gorgeous swing)
• Bradley
• Middlebrooks
• Reddick
• Brentz

That's just a first reaction and I reserve the right to change my opinion, of course...

[TomRicardo]

Right now I would have my top ten as:

Josh Reddick
Felix Doubront
Yamaico Navarro
Anthony Ranualdo
Kyle Weiland
Bryce Brentz
Will Middlebrooks
Ryan Lavarnway
Ryan Kalish
Alex Wilson

Next ten:
Drake Britton
Jose Iglesias
Chris Balcom-Miller
Miles Head
Stolmy Pimental
Alex Hassan
Sean Coyle
Brandon Jacobs
Che-Hsuan Lin
Jeremy Hazelbaker

My best guess is Miles Head is probably going to be top ten by the end of the season

[Joshv02]

Number One picks are Number One picks for a reason. The average top ten pick averages double the career worth than 11-20 pick and 8 times more than a pick 21 through supplemental. Draft worth is roughly (I do mean roughly) .95^(X-1) (It dependent on position as well) where is X is the pick in the draft. I would imagine you could say BA's top 200 probably falls better into that formula however the talent in the draft is more of pyramid than a linear line.

That is certainly right.

In different year, I think it perfectly appropriate to rank Barnes or Swihart in the top ten without them playing a game. Barnes is a better prospect now than Anastacio Martinez ever was, and Martinez was a (Sox Prospects) top 10 prospect. He is a better prospect than Billy Simon ever was, and Simon was a pre-Theo BA top 10 prospect.

But, it isn't obvious that Barnes is a better prospect than Kyle Weiland today. He is obviously more heralded coming out of the draft, but Weiland has a performance background in the high minors as a starter that we hope Barnes will replicate. We may certainly think that Cecchini is a good prospect, but its hard to make a convincing case that he is a better prospect than Middlebrooks. They both have good pedigrees, they both are good athletes, but one has a record of some success and the other hasn't yet had a PA.


It isn't that performance is necessary, of course. Barnes is a better prospect today than Pete Ruiz or Madison Younginer without throwing a pitch, even if Ruiz is a fun guy to track.

In part the reason that Barnes and Swiart aren't top ten prospects is because they don't have the performance to back it up. But, in larger part it is simply because the top ten prospects are pretty good players, even if they aren't top all 50 MLB prospects.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

What is objective about your analysis? You love the swing of a guy that played high school ball and just got off ACL surgery? How many times have you seen him swing a bat? What have you seen him swing against?

Saw him at the 2009 National Showcase in Minneapolis, which consists of 200 of the top players in the country, and the WWBA tournament in Jupiter, arguably the top amateur tournament in the country. Are we done here?

[Cuzittt]

I know you and probably 80% of the community here are numbers-oriented, so you probably know that numbers really don't mean shit until AA. Seeing that the upper minors in the Sox system is relatively weak, yes I do rank based more on upside and probability than performance.

1) I don't consider the numbers prior to AA shit. They do have to be evaluated on their own merits, however. Reynaldo Rodriguez crushing the Carolina League... relatively meaningless given his age. Miles Head crushing the SALLY League? Far more interesting... even if he is a 1st Baseman.

2) How much do any of us know about the players that are drafted and what there upsides are? Sure, we can look at some video and read some scouting reports and laugh at the Yankees for Drafting Dante Bichette's son... but how do we really know? Until they actually face competition... isn't it just relying on someone's word?

[TomRicardo]

But... I'm not sure anyone actually says that. When I compile my Top 20 list, I try to balance ceiling with floor. I try to balance how far they are from the Majors. I try to balance a lot of things. As I am sure you do (and Greek does as well).

I also look at position when I do mine. Position also has a lot to do with tools as well.

Someone like Drake Britton who is left handed and has a good fastball and curve is going to be a Major League player. But right now without the control over his change up and his two seam, he looks more like LOOGY than a starter.

I like Reddick because he takes fantastic routes to balls and has an amazing arm. He can play all three OF positions because of this though he is a natural RF especially in Fenway. His power plays well to the position as well.