115 replies to this topic

[Eric Van]

Getting rid of Wheeler and calling up Atch would free up a spot and have almost no downside. Thoughts?

I've been saying that Wheeler may be the odd man out for a while now.

Buchholz off DL -> Bowden down
Morales off DL -> Hottovy down
Jenks off DL -> Aceves down is the only guy with options left.

In the long run, would you rather have Wheeler or Aceves in the pen? And if there's an injury, would you rather have Atchison or Wheeler?

It's only if you get to two injuries that you maybe start to miss Wheeler, but there's still Doubront, Bowden, Hottovy, and Weiland as alternatives, and you are talking about low-leverage innings.

However, in terms of the squeeze, it's moot, because I'm not counting Wheeler for next year. Time to do a recount ...

[Eric Van]

So, the current 15 optioned guys, once everyone gets off the DL, are:

Aceves
Atchison
Bowden
Doubront
Hottovy
Pimentel
Tazawa

Exposito
Anderson
Iglesias
Navarro
Sutton
Tejeda
Kalish
Reddick

8 guys to add:

Drake Britton
Stephen Fife Jason Rice
Kyle Weiland
Tim Federowicz
Ryan Lavarnway
Will Middlebrooks
Chih-Hsien Chiang
Che-Hsuan Lin

That's 23, which needs to be reduced to 14 for next year to make room for Dice-K going back to the 60-day DL.

We're going to deal Atchison, Bowden and Exposito, and promote Aceves Weiland, Doubront, Navarro, and Reddick (or Kalish) to MLB.

This leaves the MLB staff with 12:

Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Miller, Wakefield
Bard, Jenks, Weiland, Albers, Aceves, Doubront, Morales or acquisition

with Kyle Weiland Alfredo Aceves as the guy good enough for MLB whom they have no room for if everyone is healthy. If they re-sign Papelbon, we'll say they deal Doubront to make room.

And if Miller is the LOOGY rather than the 5th starter, I don't think that actually frees up a slot -- because to maintain overall pitching depth they'd either keep Atchison, or do this in conjunction with re-signing Papelbon or picking up another reliever they think might be an Albers-type steal.


So, we still have 23 - 3 dealt - 4 promoted = 16, so there need to be two more trims. A revised version of just the most promising possibilities:

1) Promote Sutton to the MLB MI position, rather than the alternatives (picking up Scutaro's option, obtaining a good-field no-hit SS type who can also pinch-run and steal, or having Navarro fill that slot rather than a backup OF slot, which would probably mean picking up a backup 1B / 3B type. Trading for Hanley would also preclude this, unless Lowrie was going the other way, but you'd think it would be Iglesias). I do like the depth that having Sutton at Pawtucket gives you, though.

2) Put Hottovy on waivers. He may well clear, and even if he's claimed it's as yet unclear how valuable he'd be as a guy with options left. It is worth noting that Cesar Cabral is having a rough year, so there's no one else who looks likely to fill the role of passable LOOGY who can be called up at need.

3) Include 1 or 2 guys in a big deal either at the deadline or over the winter. Although I think they will certainly be interested in Beltran at the deadline, if not sooner, I also think someone with a greater need is likely to outbid us. And note that the three guys who seem easiest to move -- Pimentel, Anderson, and Tejeda -- all are at low points in value.

4) Deal Dice-K for nothing so that he doesn't hog a spot.

These strike me as a bit less likely:

5) Give up on Tejeda, who's having a rough year.

6) Trade the leftover RF (Kalish or Reddick) rather than sending him down to Pawtucket (with Lin, Linares, Chiang, and Hassan, still plenty of OF depth there).

Edited by Eric Van, 01 July 2011 - 09:13 AM.

[ji oh]

Can we get another Cuban, Ibarra, healthy enough to be added to a Hanley deal and also put Linares on a a PTBNL list, if he gets healthy by a certain date?

[Eric Van]

Can we get another Cuban, Ibarra, healthy enough to be added to a Hanley deal and also put Linares on a a PTBNL list, if he gets healthy by a certain date?

Interesting thoughts.

I actually think that if we decide a Hanley deal is desirable, it gets done. The question is whether we still want him after he let himself get too big to play SS a decent the last two years -- which seems to have also contributed to his plate struggles.

[Eric Van]

If the season ended today, you'd have to add Jason Rice to the list of guys you'd obviously want to protect. 3.03 True ERA, 3.07 Component, 3.03 BABIP-Neutral, so his karma has been tremendously neutral, which makes him easy to evaluate. That's an MLE of 4.14. and since he's improved from 5.60 last year you could be pretty confident that he'd be an asset to an MLB bullpen next year -- if it weren't for the notorious inconsistency of relievers.

Which is why I'm not going to edit any entries to show him added to the keeper list. He and Fife should be considered leaning towards keeping, while the others are definite, so the likeliest scenario right now is that one of them ends up worthy.

[Eric Van]

Helium watch: Caleb Clay.

After showing real improvement from his awful first 10 outings (8.55 Net) to his next 6 (5.18), he's been dominant in his last 4:

14 IP, 15 K, 4 BB, 10 H, 1.97 True ERA, 1.71 Component, 1.53 BABIP-Neutral.

If he'd been that good all year, he'd look like the best pitching prospect in the system (it's an MLE a little better than Weiland's, at a year younger).

It's such a small sample that I wouldn't even say he's re-established himself as a prospect, let alone a guy you'd add to the roster. But -- like Brock Huntzinger -- he is absolutely someone whose box score lines you should now be paying attention to rather than blowing off. IOW, he's no Jeremy Kehrt.

It's also worth noting that through June 8th his longest outing was 2.2 IP, 12 BFP, which he had done back in mid-May. He topped that narrowly on the 12th (2.2, 13) and since then has gone a minimum of 3 IP in his last 5 outings, averaging 14.6 BFP. So they are stretching him out.

[Eric Van]

With Miller, Fife, Rice, and Hottovy all struggling as of late, the crunch seems to have eased.

Here's 27 guys for the MLB roster:

Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Matsuzaka; Weiland, Wakefield, Doubront
Bard, Albers, Jenks, Aceves, Morales or replacement, new acquisition (next year's Albers, hopefully)
Saltalamacchia, Gonzalez, Pedroia, Lowrie, Youkilis, Crawford, Ellsbury, Reddick, Ortiz
Varitek, Scutaro or replacement (including potential starter), Navarro, McDonald or replacement

(They can get a draft pick for Wheeler, so I don't see them picking up his option given the pitching depth they have. They can also get a pick for Scutaro, which could factor into any trade for another SS to complement or supplant Lowrie.)

If Papelbon is re-signed, that could well mean Bard is converted to the rotation, and that would make Doubront expendable in a trade. But they could keep him for depth anyway.

So call it room for 13 expected-to-be-optioned players, maybe 12.

Pimentel, Tazawa, Anderson, Iglesias, Tejeda, Kalish
Britton, Federowicz, Lavarnway, Middlbrooks, Chiang, Lin

That's 12.

The remaining slot, if there is one, could be used for Drew Sutton (handy guy to keep on option and likely to land an MLB backup job if let go); for Exposito; or for an extra pitcher -- Miller if he shows enough to keep around, or Atchison (or Bowden) -- for further pitching depth in ST.

Dealing Dice-K would allow two of these options, or free up an open slot for a waiver claim or Rule 5 pick.

Edited by Eric Van, 27 July 2011 - 12:45 PM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Dealing Dice-K would allow two of these options, or free up an open slot for a waiver claim or Rule 5 pick.

Considering his year in the minors, I think an open spot would be more easy to obtain by dropping Pimentel from the 40-man.

Although it might be a good way to clear roster space, to trade Matsuzaka before rosters are set in November -- during his rehab from TJS, having Boras as his agent, and considering his no-trade clause -- seems...difficult.

[Eric Van]

Considering his year in the minors, I think an open spot would be more easy to obtain by dropping Pimentel from the 40-man.

He would be claimed on waivers instantly, because despite his struggles he's still an outstanding prospect, and he has two more option years left.

If you're going to react to tough years in the minors, it would make more sense to not bother protecting Britton, because the drafting team would have to keep him in the majors. But that's not smart, either. You hang on to guys with that kind of upside.

[amfox1]

They would have to keep Pimentel in the majors also. Option years don't matter for Rule 5 purposes. The question is whether a team could stash either of them on a 25-man roster all year.

[someoneanywhere]

This could go in a couple if the Gameday threads where the issue has come up, but I'll stick it here as the place most likely to get the traffic: Andrews has a really nice piece, mostly spot on, over at Sox Prospects about who is worth what in what kind of deal.

[Eric Van]

They would have to keep Pimentel in the majors also. Option years don't matter for Rule 5 purposes. The question is whether a team could stash either of them on a 25-man roster all year.

No. He's suggesting we DFA Pimentel, who is already on the 40-man, to clear an extra spot. He would be instantly claimed and the claiming club would have two more development (option) years before they needed to keep him or waive him.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

No. He's suggesting we DFA Pimentel, who is already on the 40-man, to clear an extra spot. He would be instantly claimed and the claiming club would have two more development (option) years before they needed to keep him or waive him.

Yeah, he'd have to clear waivers before being exposed to the Rule 5 draft, but I disagree that he would be claimed instantly. If he was claimed, I fully expect the Sox could reacquire him as a Rule 5 pick after 2013. And I say that as a staunch Stolmy booster since his excellent season in Lowell.

His peripherals and performance from 2007-2010 show a steady, if slight, decline as he's moved up the ladder, but this year's 0-12, 9.35 ERA campaign goes beyond just a bad year or being young for AA. I'm sorry to have to say this, but his results are so out of line with his history that I suspect Pimentel's been pitching hurt most of the season.

And also, I thought the point of this thread is that the Sox FO will be faced with some very difficult decisions this offseason. As I see it, two of those tough choices are what to do with high-upside, poor-performance guys like Pimentel and Britton. Neither one can be said to have pitched his way onto the Sox winter roster this season.

[JakeRae]

Yeah, he'd have to clear waivers before being exposed to the Rule 5 draft, but I disagree that he would be claimed instantly. If he was claimed, I fully expect the Sox could reacquire him as a Rule 5 pick after 2013. And I say that as a staunch Stolmy booster since his excellent season in Lowell.

His peripherals and performance from 2007-2010 show a steady, if slight, decline as he's moved up the ladder, but this year's 0-12, 9.35 ERA campaign goes beyond just a bad year or being young for AA. I'm sorry to have to say this, but his results are so out of line with his history that I suspect Pimentel's been pitching hurt most of the season.

And also, I thought the point of this thread is that the Sox FO will be faced with some very difficult decisions this offseason. As I see it, two of those tough choices are what to do with high-upside, poor-performance guys like Pimentel and Britton. Neither one can be said to have pitched his way onto the Sox winter roster this season.

He would be claimed. He is a very real prospect with 2 options remaining. Any team with useless 40-man roster pieces would claim him, and those teams definitely exist.

If he were simply Rule 5 eligible, there would be a reasonable case for exposing him if the space were needed. But, that isn't the case. And, your certainty with regards to the future performance of a struggling, high-upside pitcher astounds me. Pitching prospects are about the least certain things in the world. Stolmy could very well fix a mechanical flaw (or recover from a nagging but non-serious injury), show up to Spring Training and perform well, start next year in AA, dominate, go to AAA, dominate, and end up in MLB at some point next year. I don't expect that. I highly doubt that would happen. But, it is possible. When you extend the timeline to 2 more option years, I find it baffling that you could be so certain that he won't be MLB ready at some point during that time. Just to be clear, I am not saying he will make the majors in the next 2 years. I think the odds are against him ever getting to MLB at this point. But, it would be foolish to give up on his potential so that the team could hang onto a player like Luis Exposito or avoid trading Lars Anderson for another year before having to trade him anyway. It would be even more foolish to do so to avoid the chance of a player like Jason Rice getting selected in the Rule 5 draft, after which, there is still a pretty high chance he simply gets returned to Boston anyway.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

He would be claimed. He is a very real prospect with 2 options remaining. Any team with useless 40-man roster pieces would claim him, and those teams definitely exist.

If he were simply Rule 5 eligible, there would be a reasonable case for exposing him if the space were needed. But, that isn't the case. And, your certainty with regards to the future performance of a struggling, high-upside pitcher astounds me. Pitching prospects are about the least certain things in the world. Stolmy could very well fix a mechanical flaw (or recover from a nagging but non-serious injury), show up to Spring Training and perform well, start next year in AA, dominate, go to AAA, dominate, and end up in MLB at some point next year. I don't expect that. I highly doubt that would happen. But, it is possible. When you extend the timeline to 2 more option years, I find it baffling that you could be so certain that he won't be MLB ready at some point during that time. Just to be clear, I am not saying he will make the majors in the next 2 years. I think the odds are against him ever getting to MLB at this point. But, it would be foolish to give up on his potential so that the team could hang onto a player like Luis Exposito or avoid trading Lars Anderson for another year before having to trade him anyway. It would be even more foolish to do so to avoid the chance of a player like Jason Rice getting selected in the Rule 5 draft, after which, there is still a pretty high chance he simply gets returned to Boston anyway.

I've expressed no certainty in this matter. I merely said that freeing a spot on the 40-man by waiving Pimentel would be easier than trading Matsuzaka, when DiceK has a no-trade clause and is rehabbing from tommy john.

Would Pimentel be claimed on waivers? I don't know. Every organization, from the best to the worst, has high-upside A-ball pitchers who can't crack the upper minors. Why do you assume the Sox "useless 40-man pieces" would be more attractive than a team's own falling prospects? And even if he were taken, is that so bad? The odds are against him reaching MLB before his last option expires, so why not open the spot now to someone more likely to contribute within that 2-year window -- like Drew Sutton or Nate Spears?

If you and EV are certain he get claimed, that's fine; it's your choice to be certain. But see - to me you sound awfully certain that Exposito and Anderson are "useless 40-man pieces" even though each of those players has had more success at AA/AAA than Pimentel and still has at least as much time to develop under team control. And about Jason Rice -- over consecutive seasons he's had a K/9 over 9 and better than a 2:1 k/bb rate at AA and AAA, so why exactly do you think he's likely to be returned rather than stashed?

The coming offseason will have many tough choices to make, and hopefully Theo will make the right ones. Hopefully some of these guys get included in the trade package for a SP before the deadline, and some of this logjam is cleared out.

[amfox1]

No. He's suggesting we DFA Pimentel, who is already on the 40-man, to clear an extra spot. He would be instantly claimed and the claiming club would have two more development (option) years before they needed to keep him or waive him.

Got it. He's focused on the DFA process not the rule 5 selection.

[JakeRae]

I've expressed no certainty in this matter. I merely said that freeing a spot on the 40-man by waiving Pimentel would be easier than trading Matsuzaka, when DiceK has a no-trade clause and is rehabbing from tommy john.

Would Pimentel be claimed on waivers? I don't know. Every organization, from the best to the worst, has high-upside A-ball pitchers who can't crack the upper minors. Why do you assume the Sox "useless 40-man pieces" would be more attractive than a team's own falling prospects? And even if he were taken, is that so bad? The odds are against him reaching MLB before his last option expires, so why not open the spot now to someone more likely to contribute within that 2-year window -- like Drew Sutton or Nate Spears?

If you and EV are certain he get claimed, that's fine; it's your choice to be certain. But see - to me you sound awfully certain that Exposito and Anderson are "useless 40-man pieces" even though each of those players has had more success at AA/AAA than Pimentel and still has at least as much time to develop under team control. And about Jason Rice -- over consecutive seasons he's had a K/9 over 9 and better than a 2:1 k/bb rate at AA and AAA, so why exactly do you think he's likely to be returned rather than stashed?

The coming offseason will have many tough choices to make, and hopefully Theo will make the right ones. Hopefully some of these guys get included in the trade package for a SP before the deadline, and some of this logjam is cleared out.

I think you are misunderstanding me. I do not think Anderson or Exposito are useless. I think both are good but low ceiling prospects who have minimal value to the Red Sox organization. They have that minimal value because they are very unlikely to be better than other options in the organization, particularly Exposito. Anderson still has a role as the guy who would step in and play 1B if Gonzalez got hurt, but he's also close to being overtaken by Middlebrooks (Youk can move back to 1B) and has no future in Boston.

Given that, I would rather trade the low-ceiling close to the majors and blocked prospects for whatever value they bring back, if space needs to be cleared, than expose or risk losing high ceiling guys who play a position that is never really blocked.

[Eric Van]

Would Pimentel be claimed on waivers? I don't know. Every organization, from the best to the worst, has high-upside A-ball pitchers who can't crack the upper minors.

But not every team has enough such guys to fill their 40-man roster. A team with empty space on the roster has absolutely nothing to lose by claiming him.

Just look at the list of nobodies Theo has claimed on waivers over the years. None of them were a year away from being a top 10 prospect in their organization, with options left. Because those guys are never DFA'd.

If you and EV are certain he get claimed, that's fine; it's your choice to be certain. But see - to me you sound awfully certain that Exposito and Anderson are "useless 40-man pieces" even though each of those players has had more success at AA/AAA than Pimentel and still has at least as much time to develop under team control.

I don't think Exposito is anything like useless. He's just the 42nd or 43rd most valuable guy we would need to protect. His upside appears to be MLB backup catcher. His usefulness in 2012 is as a guy to call up when someone gets hurt. There are probably other organizations who could use that; we really don't need it.

I actually think Lars still has very high upside, and a decent shot at being, say, Lyle Overbay. He strikes me as a textbook potential late bloomer. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if he had a huge year next year, and I'd like to hang on to him if at all possible. That includes not trading him while his stock is low.

And about Jason Rice -- over consecutive seasons he's had a K/9 over 9 and better than a 2:1 k/bb rate at AA and AAA, so why exactly do you think he's likely to be returned rather than stashed?

I actually think he'll be claimed and probably kept. His MLE ERA is 4.73, and by next year he can probably get that down to 4.20 or so and be the last guy in a weak pen, with a chance to move up out of garbage time in another year.

(I hope to start a thread on interpreting minor league K and BB numbers that applies to him, Volz, and Juan Riodriguez -- look for it.)

The question is, does he have much chance of helping the Sox in 2012, and based on how he's pitched so far I think the answer is probably not. If everyone is healthy coming out of ST there's a good chance that there's no room for Weiland on the MLB roster, and Alex Wilson is already a significantly better pitcher.

[Eric Van]

A revised winter roster guess (changes from the last one in red):

Potential MLB roster (27):

Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Bard, Matsuzaka, Weiland, Wakefield, Doubront or Miller
Papelbon Bard, Albers, Jenks, Aceves, Morales / Miller / replacement, new acquisition (next year's Albers, hopefully)
Saltalamacchia, Gonzalez, Pedroia, Lowrie, Youkilis, Crawford, Ellsbury, Reddick, Ortiz
Varitek, Aviles Scutaro or replacement (including potential starter), new acquisition (ideally RHB, 3B / OF) Navarro, McDonald or replacement

Note that they are dealing or cutting at least one of Doubront, Miller, or Morales -- any maybe two if none of them prove to be a good LHR specialist.

(Wheeler, Scutaro -> draft picks; Atchison, Bowden -> dealt, Williams -> DFA, Bedard -> FA; Drew -> retired)

Optioned players:

Pimentel, Tazawa, Anderson, Iglesias, Tejeda, Kalish, Weiland, Exposito, Sutton
Britton, Federowicz, Lavarnway, Middlebrooks, Chiang, Lin

If they don't re-sign Papelbon, they probably acquire another pitcher or retain Atchison or Bowden.

Left unprotected: Jason Rice, Reynaldo Rodriguez, Cesar Cabral.

[gammoseditor]

I wouldn't rule out Bowden getting a look in the pen next year. If other teams were interested in him he may have been traded yesterday, and given his AAA success in the bullpen this year I don't think they let him go for nothing.

[Koufax]

You crossed Bard out and added him. Are you saying that he will be a starter next year? If so, who replaces him as the setup man?

I take it you don't think that the Sox will be outbid for Papelbon next year. That's a surprise.

[Eric Van]

I wouldn't rule out Bowden getting a look in the pen next year. If other teams were interested in him he may have been traded yesterday, and given his AAA success in the bullpen this year I don't think they let him go for nothing.

He has a 4.00 MLE ERA. Atchison, Aceves, and Weiland (as a reliever) are coincidentally all 3.64. And those are his competition for the last bullpen spot. It's just hard to fit him in.

I agree, they should be able to get a decent low-minors upside prospect for him -- he's good enough to pitch in most MLB pens next year. Just not ours.

[Eric Van]

You crossed Bard out and added him. Are you saying that he will be a starter next year? If so, who replaces him as the setup man?

I take it you don't think that the Sox will be outbid for Papelbon next year. That's a surprise.

Albers, a revitalized Jenks, Weiland, or an acquisition (e.g., overpay for Sean Marshall) can replace Bard in the 8th.

Yeah, I now think we'll re-sign Papelbon. Short version is a) closers are overpaid for their regular season work, but elite closers earn every penny when it comes to winning a WS, and b) Papelbon got no All-Star attention, largely because of a so-so save total and unimpressive ERA, but no pitcher in MLB can match his combination of WPA and SIERA. He might be the best closer in baseball, but many rival GMs will be regarding him as merely a top 5 or even top 10 guy.

I just don't see them asking Bard to return once more to the 8th inning role, and I think he projects to be a better starter than any of the other in-house alternatives. If it doesn't work, you still have those options around.

Edited by Eric Van, 01 August 2011 - 02:31 PM.

[Eric Van]

A new realization: the squeeze may start this September.

DFA'ing Williams will clear a 40-man spot for Lavarnway to be added in September. But if Clay comes off the 60-day DL later in the month, they will have to trade Atchison or Bowden, or DFA someone like Sutton or Exposito.

I think this will prevent WMB from getting a taste of MLB, which they would ordinarily like to do, I think. There will be no room for him until guys hit free agency.

One outside-chance fix is Drew retiring and Kalish taking his spot on the post-season roster. But I don't see that as likely at all.

[TheYellowDart5]

A new realization: the squeeze may start this September.

DFA'ing Williams will clear a 40-man spot for Lavarnway to be added in September. But if Clay comes off the 60-day DL later in the month, they will have to trade Atchison or Bowden, or DFA someone like Sutton or Exposito.

I think this will prevent WMB from getting a taste of MLB, which they would ordinarily like to do, I think. There will be no room for him until guys hit free agency.

One outside-chance fix is Drew retiring and Kalish taking his spot on the post-season roster. But I don't see that as likely at all.

Wait, why would the Sox have brought Middlebrooks up to the Majors in the first place? Is it at all likely that they'd jump him from Double-A all the way to MLB?

Also: Is any one of Atchison, Bowden or Sutton non-expendable? The bullpen's already crowded enough as is, and Aviles' acquisition would seem to make Sutton redundant. I feel like any of those three guys could be DFA'd without much consequence.

[Eric Van]

Wait, why would the Sox have brought Middlebrooks up to the Majors in the first place? Is it at all likely that they'd jump him from Double-A all the way to MLB?

If there were no 40-man squeeze at all and he's going to be added to the winter roster, sure, they would call him up in September and give him a handful of at bats, just to get a taste of the show. E.g., Hanley Ramirez in 2005, going 0 for 2 in MLB after repeating AA and putting up just a 720 OPS. I'm sure there are other examples.

Also: Is any one of Atchison, Bowden or Sutton non-expendable? The bullpen's already crowded enough as is, and Aviles' acquisition would seem to make Sutton redundant. I feel like any of those three guys could be DFA'd without much consequence.

Sutton is not redundant for next year: they are unlikely to find a AAA MI with options left who is anywhere near as good or versatile, which makes him a handy guy to have on the roster for injury callups. I have them trading either Atchison or Bowden, probably both, over the winter, so I agree that trading one in late September would be no big deal (they are both likely to have been recalled).
.

[Eric Van]

Latest thoughts:

-- Bowden has a 2.16 MLE essentially since we last sent him down (excluding his first outing afterwards). It's the longest sustained stretch of excellence in his AAA career, and what he does in MLB in September will determine whether he's in the mix for next year.

-- Conversely, you have to wonder whether they'll just cut bait on Jenks and send him somewhere as a salary dump, if he doesn't show us anything in September. Figure that you've got a closer (Papelbon or Bard), a LOOGY (probably an acquisition replacing Morales, and ideally an 8th-inning caliber guy), Wakefield, and either Miller or Doubront as long men, so that leaves three RH setup guys, and two of them are Albers and Aceves. The third could be Bowden or a new acquisition (decision maybe made in ST) rather than Jenks.

-- Rice has a 4.51 MLE, which is a 21% improvement over last year. He needs to improve another 19% to be an average MLB reliever. Ordinarily that is a guy you would protect. But he would be behind Tazawa, Weiland, and Wilson as a call-up, and even if there were three or four guys hurt at once, all he'd see is very low leverage innings. We have enough depth to leave him unprotected, and I think he'll almost certainly be drafted and has a decent chance of sticking.

-- Lin is down to .245 / .331 / .297. He'd have to improve quite a bit next year to be above replacement level as a fourth or fifth OF, even with his plus defense; that he's not much of a base-stealer further limits his value as a reserve. Can he improve that much going from age 22 to 23? Ordinarily you'd say, sure, maybe, but the fact is that he's probably not improved at all since last year. And if by some chance he were drafted and not returned, is that a great loss? He would still have been behind Kalish and Linares as a callup. I think we can take him off the protection list.

Freeing up Lin's spot would allow them to keep an extra pitcher on the winter roster and make a decision in ST rather than now. For instance, they can keep both Miller and Doubront and have them compete for the LH long man spot, or they could keep both Bowden and Jenks. And of course this protects you in case of injuries. I think this is likelier than using the spot for Cabral or Rice.

[ji oh]

Latest thoughts:

--

-- Lin is down to .245 / .331 / .297. He'd have to improve quite a bit next year to be above replacement level as a fourth or fifth OF, even with his plus defense; that he's not much of a base-stealer further limits his value as a reserve. Can he improve that much going from age 22 to 23? Ordinarily you'd say, sure, maybe, but the fact is that he's probably not improved at all since last year. And if by some chance he were drafted and not returned, is that a great loss? He would still have been behind Kalish and Linares as a callup. I think we can take him off the protection list.

Freeing up Lin's spot would allow them to keep an extra pitcher on the winter roster and make a decision in ST rather than now. For instance, they can keep both Miller and Doubront and have them compete for the LH long man spot, or they could keep both Bowden and Jenks. And of course this protects you in case of injuries. I think this is likelier than using the spot for Cabral or Rice.

And who would take Lin? Just to play D? Limited upside, and that upside would be thwarted by having him poke weakly at major league pitching all year.

Edited by ji oh, 22 August 2011 - 08:10 PM.

[Eric Van]

And who would take Lin? Just to play D? Limited upside, and that upside would be thwarted by having him poke weakly at major league pitching all year.

The only reason a team would take Lin would be to look at him in ST and see if they could do something to change his swing to develop more power. But that team would have to believe that we weren't smart enough to have already thought of something similar. I'd put 20-1 odds that he isn't taken.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Conversely, you have to wonder whether they'll just cut bait on Jenks and send him somewhere as a salary dump, if he doesn't show us anything in September.

What could they possibly get in return for Jenks? I find it difficult to imagine a scenario in which Jenks is not useful to the Sox, but useful enough to another tearm in order to justify a trade. They'd be selling low, doesn't make a lot of sense to me. The dreaded 40-man roster crunch will work itself out, they'll lose a few guys who will likely never be heard from again, and then add a few more, that's the way it works. Guys like Sutton, Bowden, Atchison, Exposito, etc. seem pretty fungible to me.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 23 August 2011 - 08:12 AM.

[Eric Van]

What could they possibly get in return for Jenks? I find it difficult to imagine a scenario in which Jenks is not useful to the Sox, but useful enough to another tearm in order to justify a trade. ,,, The dreaded 40-man roster crunch will work itself out, they'll lose a few guys who will likely never be heard from again, and then add a few more, that's the way it works. Guys like Sutton, Bowden, Atchison, Exposito, etc. seem pretty fungible to me.

One of those "fungible" guys is not like the other, in that he does Jenk's job and of late has been doing it vastly better. That's my whole point.

It's in fact trivial to imagine that scenario: he's decent but you don't believe he's one of the 12 best guys in the organization for next year's staff.

And if Bowden demonstrates in September that his recent MLE is for real, you could easily come to that conclusion.

They'd be selling low, doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Yeah, the "if he doesn't show us anything" is actually beside the point, and in fact, maybe a reason to keep him at least until ST. It really comes down to whether they think Bowden has become the better pitcher.

[jnlevetoncnmt]

What could they possibly get in return for Jenks?

In early August wholesale pork was trading for about $1.1 per pound
From what I have read there has been an increase in supply, so now might not be the best time to sell.

On a serious note, I would keep Exposito. In all likelihood he is not someone who you want as your starting catcher, but considering Varitek's age, and the fact that Lavarnway is not proven defensively, in 2012 we could be one Salty injury from needing Expo.

Edited by jnlevetoncnmt, 23 August 2011 - 09:03 AM.

[JakeRae]

Bowden tonight. 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 HR.

So much for sustained excellence.

[Eric Van]

Bowden tonight. 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 HR.

So much for sustained excellence.

No one is perfect every time out, and that was his first HR allowed since May 27. What will make the difference here is whether he has a few more of these in a row, or goes back to dominating. He gave up a run on two singles and a double on August 4, then gave up 2 H and a BB in his next 5.2.

His MLE in this stretch is up all the way to 2.81.

On another topic altogether, either I misread SP or they updated Drew Sutton's page. He will not have an option left next year. So if they keep him, it will be either in lieu of picking up a 1B / 3B type or OF who can play 3B in a pinch, or as injury insurance for Lowrie and Aviles in ST. And as much as I like him as a potential utility guy, I'm not sure that bringing him to ST just as insurance is a good use of a roster space. So that may free up a spot. I actually wouldn't mind seeing him traded to a team where he'd be a good fit. He could really help a team where the 2B and 3B don't play 150 games while the SS is durable, and we're pretty much the opposite. They could hopefully pick up a Celestino-level prospect for him.

[soxfan121]

Sutton seems like a Cardinal (a National league superstar) to me - questionable bat, questionable glove, potential to be slightly better than replacement level at several positions and slots in the order. Nice, versatile part who gives the manager a reason to use the double-switch.

I'd like to see the Sox just eat the $ on Jenks and ship him out for a PTBNL that is dependent on performance. He might save 30 games for someone, somewhere next season. It could be Houston. It could be in the Mexican League. It sure as hell shouldn't be tried in Boston, again. Sunk cost, move on.

Bowden needs to get out west somewhere - the parks are bigger, the pressure is lower and the expectations would be fresh and lower than they ever have been here. He's a fringe guy who fills a role that is occupied by higher ceiling guys (Aceves, Miller, Doubront, Tazawa) or legends (Wakefield). Give the guy a chance to make it in Seattle. He could be awesome in Seattle.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I'd like to see the Sox just eat the $ on Jenks and ship him out for a PTBNL that is dependent on performance. He might save 30 games for someone, somewhere next season. It could be Houston. It could be in the Mexican League. It sure as hell shouldn't be tried in Boston, again. Sunk cost, move on.

Selling low is generally a pretty awful strategy. This strikes me as a pretty terrible idea. It's not as if the Sox won't need relievers next season, and if Jenks has the chance to be good (he does), he should get the chance with Boston.

[Eric Van]

Latest thoughts: If John Lackey were John Lackey, you might consider in-house options (Weiland, Doubront, etc.) for next year's 5th starter. If he were even half himself, you'd probably gamble on converting Bard to the rotation. But right now I'm thinking they need to re-sign Bedard or get a major arm in trade. And if Papelbon can't be re-signed, you want to get a major 8th inning arm.

So here's an updated winter roster guess (once again, changes from the last one in red):

Potential MLB roster (27):

Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Bedard or major trade acquisition, Matsuzaka; Doubront
Papelbon Bard, Albers, Jenks, Aceves, Morales or replacement, new acquisition (next year's Albers, hopefully)
Saltalamacchia, Gonzalez, Pedroia, Lowrie, Youkilis, Crawford, Ellsbury, Reddick, Ortiz
Varitek, Aviles, Jackson, McDonald or replacement

(Wheeler, Scutaro -> draft picks; T. Miller, Gathright -> DFA; Atchison, Bowden, A. Miller -> potentially dealt, Drew, possibly Wakefield -> retired)

Optioned players:

Pimentel, Tazawa, Weiland, Lavarnway, Exposito, Anderson, Iglesias, Tejeda, Kalish
Britton, Middlebrooks

Left unprotected: Lin, Cabral.

Now, that's just 38. So there's room to bring Wakefield back, and/or to keep A. Miller, Bowden, or Atchison around at least until ST. And / or room to pick up another potential bench guy to compete in ST with Jackson and/or McDonald.

[JakeRae]

I'm a little unclear on where you are intending Doubront to wind up. 6th starter is not an actual roster position.

[Jed Zeppelin]

While I wouldn't be opposed to giving Aviles a shot to maintain the 2008-level offense he's flashing these days as the starting shortstop next season, I don't see any way Scutaro isn't with the Red Sox in 2012. Aviles is potentially a better bat and glove and is considerably younger, but I don't see how Scutaro doesn't come back anyway. He turns 36 in a month - why would he reject an arb offer? I mean, I suppose he could expect to land another multi-year deal but I don't see it.

[SumnerH]

I'm a little unclear on where you are intending Doubront to wind up. 6th starter is not an actual roster position.

I'm confused by this. There are no designated "roster positions"--you're either on the 40-man or you're not. Doubront is, so he's going to take up a roster slot (unless he's cut, which seems pretty unlikely).

[Eric Van]

I'm a little unclear on where you are intending Doubront to wind up. 6th starter is not an actual roster position.

So what was Tim Wakefield's role this year?

6th starter as in 6th on the depth chart, not 6 guys in the rotation at once. And he's the long man when the 5 guys ahead of him are all healthy.

[Koufax]

Pardon my ignorance, but is Matsuzaka going to be physically able to pitch next year? If not, can he be put on the 60 day DL and thus not take up a spot on the 40-man roster?

Or traded to the Brockton Rox?

[jsinger121]

Pardon my ignorance, but is Matsuzaka going to be physically able to pitch next year? If not, can he be put on the 60 day DL and thus not take up a spot on the 40-man roster?

Or traded to the Brockton Rox?

He will be on the 60 day DL to begin next year once they put him on it.

[Bigpupp]

Pardon my ignorance, but is Matsuzaka going to be physically able to pitch next year? If not, can he be put on the 60 day DL and thus not take up a spot on the 40-man roster?

Or traded to the Brockton Rox?

There is a point a few weeks after the postseason ends that all players need to come off the 60 day DL and be put back on the 40 man roster. So even though Dice-K will be placed back on the 60 day DL when spring training starts, we have to make room for him during the offseason.

[Eric Van]

While I wouldn't be opposed to giving Aviles a shot to maintain the 2008-level offense he's flashing these days as the starting shortstop next season, I don't see any way Scutaro isn't with the Red Sox in 2012. Aviles is potentially a better bat and glove and is considerably younger, but I don't see how Scutaro doesn't come back anyway. He turns 36 in a month - why would he reject an arb offer? I mean, I suppose he could expect to land another multi-year deal but I don't see it.

According to FG, Scutaro has been worth $10 and $12.5M the last two years, and including the buyout, he would going to arb having made $6.25M each year. It seems almost certain that someone will offer him more than he could make in arb and guarantee him a starting job rather than a competition with Lowrie and Aviles.

Guys very, very rarely accept arb. Scutaro, even playing less than full-time, is 14th in fWAR among MLB SS. I doubt that a better-than-average player has ever accepted arb
.

[Rudy Pemberton]

According to FG, Scutaro was "worth" $20.5M in '09; which he parlayed into a 2 year, $12.5M deal with the Sox. Given that, I don't think it's at all certain that he can get more than he'd make in arb and a guaranteed starting role. That being said, the Sox should pick up his option. There is no way you can count on anything from Lowrie, and I think Aviles profiles much better as a utility player.

[gammoseditor]

According to FG, Scutaro has been worth $10 and $12.5M the last two years, and including the buyout, he would going to arb having made $6.25M each year. It seems almost certain that someone will offer him more than he could make in arb and guarantee him a starting job rather than a competition with Lowrie and Aviles.

Guys very, very rarely accept arb. Scutaro, even playing less than full-time, is 14th in fWAR among MLB SS. I doubt that a better-than-average player has ever accepted arb
.

He's only cost 4.5 million to bring back. Given the points you made and I bolded why would we let him go?

[JakeRae]

He's only cost 4.5 million to bring back. Given the points you made and I bolded why would we let him go?

Draft picks.

[j44thor]

Draft picks.

Is Scutaro expected to be a type A or B FA? That could make all the difference in the world. If he is a type A I doubt any GM gives up a 1st for a 36YO SS and any team with a protected pick likely doesn't need a 36YO SS either. If he is a type B then that makes the decision a lot easier.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I get the desire for draft picks, but the loss of Scutaro would hurt the team in the short term. You can't go into the season with just Lowrie and Aviles...and acquiring anyone significantly better than Scutaro will cost assets (trade) or require a longer deal (free agent) which you probably don't want to do, given the hope that Iglesias is ready in '13. Either you pay Scutaro $1.5M to go away, or you pay him $6M to stay. I think you keep him.