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The Upcoming 40-Man Roster Squeeze


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#1 Eric Van


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Posted 06 June 2011 - 07:50 AM

For several years I've been nattering on about the extraordinary depth in the minor leagues and how it might lead to a 40-man roster crunch. It didn't come close to happening last year, but I think that (as Southside Johnny says) this time, it's for real.

The simplest way to do this is to list the currently optioned players (if everyone were healthy) and then the desirable additions. We then have to trim the total number on both lists to 14 or even 13* by either getting rid of people, or by giving them MLB jobs next year.

*
Because Matsuzaka will be going on the 60-day DL, and so might Hill -- so 26 or 27 spots will be taken by MLB players. Hill can probably be passed through waivers because a claiming team will only get two years of control before he can become a FA, and he'll miss most or all of one of those. But there's always a chance that someone puts in a claim and we have to pull him back.

The 15 14 currently optioned:

Tommy Hottovy or Alfredo Aceves (when Morales come off the DL)
Scott Atchison
Michael Bowden (when Jenks comes off the DL)
Felix Doubront
Stolmy Pimentel
Junichi Tazawa (will be coming off the 60-day DL, with Hill going on)

Luis Exposito
Michael McKenry
Lars Anderson
Jose Iglesias
Yamaico Navarro
Drew Sutton (when McDonald comes off the DL)
Oscar Tejeda
Ryan Kalish
Josh Reddick

And the 8 guys we would want to add if we had to decide now:

Drake Britton
Andrew Miller [already added]
Kyle Weiland
Tim Federowicz
Ryan Lavarnway
Will Middlebrooks
Chih-Hsien Chiang
Che-Hsuan Lin

That's 15 + 8 = 23, 9 (or 10) guys too many.

Two easy cuts are Bowden and McKenry [which happened on 6/13]. Bowden will be out of options and, as we're about to see, has 15 guys ahead of him. McKenry looks like an OK MLB backup, but will be redundant with Fed-X moving up from AA.

Navarro and Reddick or Kalish are easy promotions. Navarro can fill either the backup SS or the RH hitting backup OF slot (while doubling as the other, of course), or be a key part in a big trade. One of Reddick or Kalish will likely succeed Drew or be traded for his successor (Choo?), and if they sign Beltran to play RF they can use Reddick or Kalish as a 4th OFer, or trade one. There's no way both will be going back to Pawtucket.

Among the pitchers, Atchison, Doubront, and Miller will be out of options, and Hottovy / Aceves and Weiland are good enough to pitch in the majors. So that's 5 more promotions, giving us 7 total, and with the two cuts, there's your 9.

The problem is this, though: we've just added 5 guys to the pitching staff, but it already had 10 guys: Beckett, Buchholz, Lackey, Lester, Wakefield, Bard, Jenks, Albers, Aceves / Hottovy, and Morales. So we're actually 3 over. And if they want to re-sign Papelbon, or take a flyer on an upside guy (as they have for four straight year with Aardsma, Littleton, Bonser, and Albers), they're 4 over.

Atchison, as useful as he is, is clearly 15th on this list and can be dealt, so now you're 2 over.

(The staff, BTW, has Miller or Doubront as 5th starter, with the other in the pen along with Hottovy or Morales from the left side. Bard remains the relief ace and Jenks becomes the closer, while Weiland takes the 7th inning. Aceves is optioned but gets the call whenever anyone is hurt. Alternatively, Weiland is the guy waiting in AAA.)

So how might further spots be freed up?

1) Morales is iffy and may not make it to the end of the year anyway. (And if he does, you arguably have a surplus of LHR, so you can deal him -- or Hottovy or Doubront).
2) Deal Exposito to a team that can give him the AAA playing time he needs. He no longer seems to have a future in this organization, but should be able to fetch some other team's #25-30 non-eligible prospect.
3) Make a big 2 or 3 for 1 trade either at the deadline or over the winter. They will certainly be interested in Beltran at the deadline, if not sooner.
4a) Promote Sutton to the MLB MI position, rather than obtaining a goof-field no-hit SS type who can also pinch-run and steal.
4b) Alternatively, deal Sutton. If he falls short of what you want in an MLB backup MI, he still seems like a really useful guy to have on options, But he is still a backup infielder with no upside, and you can hope to find someone nearly as good.
5) Deal Dice-K for nothing so that he doesn't hog a spot.
These strike me as much less likely:
6) Give Lin the 4th OF spot that's currently McDonald's.
7) Give up on Tejeda, who's having a rough year.
8) Leave Lin unprotected, gambling that no one wants an OFer who can't slug .400 in AAA.
9) Put Tazawa on waivers and gamble that no one claims him (P 91's idea; I don't think it works)
10) Trade the loser of the RF job rather than sending him down to Pawtucket (with Lin, Linares, Chiang, and Hassan, still plenty of OF depth there).
11) If Wakefield retires unexpectedly, Aceves takes his MLB spot, freeing up an option slot.
12) Sign Varitek and Wakefield to minor league deals instead of MLB ones, meaning you don't have to leave two roster spots free for them. Also P 91's idea and I think people would complain.

They will have to do two of these things, and they may want to do three.

And here is a way too thorough list of guys* you wouldn't protect right now, but are theoretically worth watching and could conceivably make things even tougher:

*Everyone who's ever made a BA prospect depth chart, in fact. Some are extremely unlikely. OTOH, Rice and Fox have shots to land an MLB deal and would ordinarily be guys you'd think of protecting.

The Watch List 1: Pitchers

Listed in order of the improvement they currently need, without regard to the likelihood of making that improvement, or any factors other than their pitching line for this year.


Ex-prospects in blue (italics = out of options), non-prospects in red.

Jason Rice (FA)
Blake Maxwell (FA)
Brandon Duckworth (FA)
Stephen Fife
Tommy Hottovy (FA)
Justin Erasmus (SSS)
Cesar Cabral
Clevelan Santeliz (FA)
Tony Pena (FA)
[Randy Williams (FA)]
also
Mike Lee
Matt Fox (FA)
Seth Garrison
Eammon Portice
Mitch Herold
Manny Rivera
Miguel Celestino
Brock Huntzinger
Caleb Clay
Ryan Pressly
Pete Ruiz


The Watch List 2: Position Players

I may or may not put these in better order later.

Tony Thomas
Nate Spears (FA)
Brent Dlugach
Mark Wagner
Mitch Dening
Ronald Bermudez
Michael Almanzar

Reynaldo Rodriguez

David Mailman
Ryan Dent
Wilfred Pichardo
Zach Daeges


Edited by Eric Van, 29 July 2011 - 07:21 PM.


#2 jsinger121


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Posted 06 June 2011 - 08:06 AM

Exposito has washed out as a prospect? This is his first year on the 40 man. Yes he has struggled but I'd be shocked if he was dropped after this season. Its been a tough adjustment for him to AAA.

#3 Lose Remerswaal


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Posted 06 June 2011 - 08:28 AM

Aceves goes down when Morales comes back? Is that a wise decision when Fettucini is pitching so well for us, and Morales hasn't proven anything?

#4 Buzzkill Pauley

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Posted 06 June 2011 - 08:56 AM

I think Miller has a miLB club option for 2012, so he could potentially be kept in the system without requiring a 40-man spot, when winter rosters are set.

Of course, we don't know what any other possible opt-out dates were negotiated into the contract aside from 6/15/11.



#5 threecy

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Posted 06 June 2011 - 10:38 AM

Do you think the Red Sox are really ready to cut ties on Bowden? Sure, he's not the #3/4 starter now as may have been optimistically hoped, but he's not exactly Jason Place either...

#6 Eric Van


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Posted 06 June 2011 - 10:40 AM

Exposito has washed out as a prospect? This is his first year on the 40 man. Yes he has struggled but I'd be shocked if he was dropped after this season. Its been a tough adjustment for him to AAA.

Ordinarily I'd agree with you, that you don't give up on a catching prospect who's struggled in his first year at AAA. Who do you propose dropping instead, though? Is is worth it to give Dice-K away now for nothing (instead of hoping for a nice rehab and a trade next July) just to keep him on the roster?

Where's he going to play if you do keep him?

I'm not saying you release him, you try to find a team that doesn't have two AAA catchers slated for next year and swap him for a borderline top 30 prospect who is similarly blocked and who is a year or two away from needing to be protected.

#7 Eric Van


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Posted 06 June 2011 - 10:54 AM

Do you think the Red Sox are really ready to cut ties on Bowden? Sure, he's not the #3/4 starter now as may have been optimistically hoped, but he's not exactly Jason Place either...

Ordinarily, sure, you'd keep him on the roster, bring him to ST, and give him a chance to make the club. That would work if he were the 39th or 40th most valuable Rule-5 eligible guy and the 13th or 14th best pitcher, which he would be in a lot of other organizations. But when he's the 44th or 45th-best eligible, and the 16th best pitcher*, it just becomes pointless. You find a club with less pitching depth and give him a chance there.

Tough decisions need to be made here.

*That's 16th among guys fighting for a roster spot ... but check out these MLEs of guys who aren't:

2.58 Okajima
3.82 Maxwell
4.24 Santeliz
4.61 Fox
4.62 Williams
4.85 Duckworth
4.89 Rice
4.93 Wilson
4.95 Bowden

So he's actually been the 24th best pitcher in the organization.

#8 Eric Van


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Posted 06 June 2011 - 11:04 AM

I think Miller has a miLB club option for 2012, so he could potentially be kept in the system without requiring a 40-man spot, when winter rosters are set.

That wouldn't protect him from the Rule 5 draft if it were exercised before then. And I'm not sure the option is for a ml deal; I think it's for an MLB contract ($3M).

They could let him go as an mlfa and re-sign him to another minor-league deal after the draft, but it wouldn't be in Miller's interest to risk being buried all year in Pawtucket just because of a numbers game. We basically pulled that trick once and it worked because he preferred to pitch in AAA for us and try to recover his talent, then try to do it while competing for someone else's MLB job. Now that he's proving he deserves an MLB shot, someone's got to give it to him.

#9 jsinger121


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Posted 06 June 2011 - 11:12 AM

My thoughts on the crunch.

Alfredo Aceves (staying)
Scott Atchison (going)
Michael Bowden (going)
Felix Doubront (staying)
Stolmy Pimentel (staying)
Junichi Tazawa (staying)

Luis Exposito (staying)
Michael McKenry (gone)
Lars Anderson (likely traded)
Jose Iglesias (staying)
Yamaico Navarro (traded)
Drew Sutton (gone)
Oscar Tejeda (staying)
Ryan Kalish (staying)
Josh Reddick (traded)


Drake Britton (protect)
Andrew Miller (wouldn't protect)
Kyle Weiland (protect)
Tim Federowicz (wouldn't protect) He may get selected in the Rule V but I'd be shocked if he stuck to a roster.
Ryan Lavarnway (protect)
Will Middlebrooks (protect)
Chih-Hsien Chiang (wouldn't protect)
Che-Hsuan Lin (protect)

Thats 13 right now.

Edited by jsinger121, 06 June 2011 - 11:15 AM.


#10 Eric Van


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Posted 06 June 2011 - 12:17 PM

Chih-Hsien Chiang (wouldn't protect)

Eastern League SA leaders, with the guys young enough to be prospects in bold:

Domination
Name SA Age OBP
Chih-Hsien Chiang .626 23.4 .354
Matt Rizzotti .568 25.6 .399
Tyler Moore .552 24.5 .315
Bill Rhinehart .523 26.7 .356
Ryan Lavarnway .513 23.10 .363
Cody Overbeck .513 25.0 .324
Mike McDade .509 22.1 .374
Will Middlebrooks .500 22.9 .345
Joshua Satin .497 26.6 .400
Archie Gilbert .493 27.11 .382


Incidentally, among EL players 23 and younger, Chiang, Hassan, Lavarnway, and Middlebrooks rank 1-2-4-6 in OPS (the Jays' 1B McDade is 3rd and the Twins' CF Joe Benson is 5th. Benson is the Twins #4 prospect while McDade, like Hassan, is a depth-chart guy. For a non-depth-chart guy like Chiang to be dominating like this is insane, but he's just building on his last July and August numbers).

Edited by Eric Van, 06 June 2011 - 12:25 PM.


#11 Eric Van


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Posted 06 June 2011 - 03:55 PM

My thoughts on the crunch.

Felix Doubront (staying)

Thats 13 right now.

If Doubront is staying, he's on the MLB roster since he's out of options, so you've actually cut one guy too many. (And with only 11 MLB pitchers, you have room to re-sign Papelbon or take a flyer on someone.)

So who do you save?

(And why are you trading Lars when there's no AA 1B who needs a promotion and his stock can only go up if he develops power late?)

#12 IM2

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Posted 06 June 2011 - 04:36 PM

And why are you trading Lars when there's no AA 1B who needs a promotion

The Energizer Bunny begs to differ!:buddy:

#13 Plympton91


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Posted 06 June 2011 - 05:22 PM

Maybe I missed something, but wouldn't it be rather easy to free up two 40-man roster slots by letting Varitek and Wakefield file for free agency and then, at a minimum resigning them after the rule-5 draft, or best case scenario resigning them only to minor league contracts so they could be added late in spring training after Matsuzaka and Hill can be put back on the 60-day DL.

In that scenario, Exposito is the back-up catcher and can be protected along with Lavarnway and Federowicz. Like some others, I think Eric is underestimating the upside there, and also, though I hesitate to suggest it, may be out of step with the organization's thinking on him.

Barring an unlikely stretch of high-quality pitching in aA and AAA, I take the chance of DFAing Tazawa and trying to bring him back as a MLFA.

Assuming reasonable health of the other pitchers, Atchison I would try to trade at the deadline this year to somebody in the NL looking for an upgrade at their 12th pitcher spot.

It's too bad they caved in an gave Jose (I don't ever walk or hit for any power) Iglesias a major league contract, otherwise he could still be playing in Salem and not need to be protected. Obviously, though, given his apparently historically spectacular defensive skills, you protect him and hope he's one of the few hackers who someday learns the strike zone.

But, as a I said in another thread, this roster crunch is going to lead to the loss of somebody or even two somebody's that are too good to lose for just the $50k waiver fee. For that reason,I think Red Sox should be looking at making a 3 or even 4 for 1 deal with all these B-/C+ prospects. Can you get Drew Storen from the Nationals for some combination and hope to have a Bard/Storen arbitration-controlled dominant combo for a few years.





#14 Eric Van


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Posted 07 June 2011 - 03:52 AM

Maybe I missed something, but wouldn't it be rather easy to free up two 40-man roster slots by letting Varitek and Wakefield file for free agency and then, at a minimum resigning them after the rule-5 draft, or best case scenario resigning them only to minor league contracts so they could be added late in spring training after Matsuzaka and Hill can be put back on the 60-day DL.

Simply signing them after the draft gains you nothing and might actually makes things worse, because then you have to DFA a pair of folks. But signing them as mlfa's is very clever and just might free up two roster spots. However, it is also obvious manipulation of the roster rules ... would it likely create a big stink?
.

Barring an unlikely stretch of high-quality pitching in aA and AAA, I take the chance of DFAing Tazawa and trying to bring him back as a MLFA.

I almost included that in the list of possibilities, then decided he would certainly be claimed. I think we've all forgotten how bare the pitching cupboard is for some teams.

But, as a I said in another thread, this roster crunch is going to lead to the loss of somebody or even two somebody's that are too good to lose for just the $50k waiver fee. For that reason,I think Red Sox should be looking at making a 3 or even 4 for 1 deal with all these B-/C+ prospects. Can you get Drew Storen from the Nationals for some combination and hope to have a Bard/Storen arbitration-controlled dominant combo for a few years.

That's always been one of the ways to do it ... I should have included that in the list.

#15 Puffy

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Posted 07 June 2011 - 10:19 AM

But, as a I said in another thread, this roster crunch is going to lead to the loss of somebody or even two somebody's that are too good to lose for just the $50k waiver fee. For that reason,I think Red Sox should be looking at making a 3 or even 4 for 1 deal with all these B-/C+ prospects. Can you get Drew Storen from the Nationals for some combination and hope to have a Bard/Storen arbitration-controlled dominant combo for a few years.


This seems to be the most obvious solution and perhaps the best one. The Sox will almost certainly be looking for something at the deadline - perhaps an upgrade to the bullpen or a replacement for an injury. Something like the Eric Gagne trade (structurally, not in terms of ultimate results) would make a lot of sense. That trade was a 3-for-1 with (IIRC) two prospects off the 40-man (if you consider Gabbard a prospect) and a younger lottery ticket. There might be teams out there with thin upper level systems more interested in volume over quality, although the roster squeeze could easily produce a mixed package which satisfies both quality and quantity needs.

#16 Eric Van


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Posted 08 June 2011 - 05:52 AM

Another outing by Fife like last night's and we'll want to protect him.

I've updated the "needs improvement" rankings accordingly (and will do so regularly, only commenting when someone moves dramatically like this). I also fleshed out the list of possible solutions per the discussion here.

#17 gammoseditor


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Posted 10 June 2011 - 03:04 AM

With a 4 for 1 (or 6 for 2) trade being the easiest way to solve this "problem" the Red Sox should really be on the phone with the Mets. I only see four spots the Red Sox can upgrade on the major league club. There isn't really a catcher out there you'd give up assets for that would be available. You could upgrade your 4th or 5th starter, but I see this as the last spot on the depth chart. You have 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, CF, and DH covered. With the AAA depth I don't see RP as a major issue. That leaves SS and RF, and you'd prefer to get someone that hits lefties. You should at least gauge the Mets interest in Jed Lowrie, Yamaico Navarro, Andrew Miller, Kyle Weiland, Felix Doubront, Josh Reddick, Ryan Kalish, and any of the toolsy guys in A ball. Below is just one idea:

Jed Lowrie
Josh Reddick
Andrew Miller
Sean Coyle
JD Drew
Mike Cameron

for

Jose Reyes
Carlos Beltran

#18 phragle


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Posted 10 June 2011 - 03:43 AM

Beltran is a great idea, and I've been pimping him for a while, but I don't think there would be much of an acquisition cost. I think the Mets would love to get out of the rest of that contract, and he would fit this team really well.

No interest in Reyes.

Regarding the roster squeeze I'd love to trade all the B/C prospects we need to and get back a young cost controlled relief pitcher, or even an A prospect from a team the needs more depth.

Edited by phragle, 10 June 2011 - 05:36 PM.


#19 tmljeh19

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Posted 10 June 2011 - 08:11 AM

What are the chances we revisit talks with Toronto about Bautista? An article came out after we signed Crawford that we tried to trade for him in the winter but we couldn't agreed on the compensation. The article ended with something along the lines of talks will/can be revisited near the deadline if we still needed an upgrade at RF.

#20 tmlhttr98

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Posted 10 June 2011 - 01:34 PM

What is the chance at revisiting these past winter talks with Toronto about Bautista. The article came out after the signing of Crawford, that we were in talks with Toronto about trading for Bautista but could not agree on the compensation. The article ended as if the talks ended on a positive note and that the talks were not dead just not a priority with signing Carl. Well now that we are getting little to no production from Drew and Cameron, do we restart the talks? What would it take to get him away from Toronto?

#21 gammoseditor


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Posted 10 June 2011 - 01:36 PM

What is the chance at revisiting these past winter talks with Toronto about Bautista. The article came out after the signing of Crawford, that we were in talks with Toronto about trading for Bautista but could not agree on the compensation. The article ended as if the talks ended on a positive note and that the talks were not dead just not a priority with signing Carl. Well now that we are getting little to no production from Drew and Cameron, do we restart the talks? What would it take to get him away from Toronto?


He signed an extension through 2016. There's no chance they'd trade him.

#22 tmlhttr98

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Posted 10 June 2011 - 01:40 PM

He signed an extension through 2016. There's no chance they'd trade him.


Totally slipped my mind. Thanks for the refresher. I really think we will make a deal at the deadline but have no idea who for. The general consensus is Reyes or Beltran. Who else are possibilities? Im looking at RF, SS and RP as the main areas where the major upgrade is needed. I also DO NOT think Iglesias is ready to be the SS in 2012 and possibly 2013 to start the season either.

#23 Eric Van


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Posted 10 June 2011 - 01:55 PM

Jed Lowrie
Josh Reddick
Andrew Miller
Sean Coyle
JD Drew
Mike Cameron

for

Jose Reyes
Carlos Beltran

Gotta love SoSH, the only place in the world where the laughable trades favor the other club.

You're saying here that the difference in value between Beltran and Drew, and between Reyes and Cameron, for three months, is worth six years each of Josh Reddick and Sean Coyle, and four years each of Jed Lowrie and Andrew Miller?

It's a bit of an overpay.

#24 tmlhttr98

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Posted 10 June 2011 - 02:00 PM

Gotta love SoSH, the only place in the world where the laughable trades favor the other club.

You're saying here that the difference in value between Beltran and Drew, and between Reyes and Cameron, for three months, is worth six years each of Josh Reddick and Sean Coyle, and four years each of Jed Lowrie and Andrew Miller?

It's a bit of an overpay.


I would love to pull the trigger for Reyes and extend him. I dont think Iggy is anywhere near ready for MLB in 2012 and starting to believe that 2013 is pushing it. What do you think it would take to get him here?

#25 gammoseditor


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Posted 10 June 2011 - 02:08 PM

Gotta love SoSH, the only place in the world where the laughable trades favor the other club.

You're saying here that the difference in value between Beltran and Drew, and between Reyes and Cameron, for three months, is worth six years each of Josh Reddick and Sean Coyle, and four years each of Jed Lowrie and Andrew Miller?

It's a bit of an overpay.


2 months of Cliff Lee brought Justin Smoak. Reyes has been the 2nd most valuable player in baseball this year. And there's still a chance of draft pick compensation. Arguing what it would take to acquire a player is kind of pointless though. No one has any idea what the Mets would be looking for or what anyone else would be offering. Regardless they are both perfect fits.

FWIW I threw those names out there because I think they are all replaceable internally.


Edit: Quick estimate using fangraphs WAR, replacing Lawrie and Drew with Reyes and Beltran, based on the admittedly SSS of this season, works out to a 11.5 win upgrade over a full season.

Edited by gammoseditor, 10 June 2011 - 02:15 PM.


#26 Eric Van


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Posted 10 June 2011 - 02:52 PM

I would love to pull the trigger for Reyes and extend him. I dont think Iggy is anywhere near ready for MLB in 2012 and starting to believe that 2013 is pushing it. What do you think it would take to get him here?

They are under heavy fan pressure to re-sign him, so I think the asking price will be worth more than the value, as great as that is.

Beltran is a different story. Johan Keri at FG lists the Phillies, Rays, Giants, and Diamondbacks as other clubs looking for corner OFers, and the Rays and Dbacks can't afford him.

#27 Buzzkill Pauley

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Posted 10 June 2011 - 03:13 PM

I can completely see the Sox overpaying with crunch-risk talent to acquire Reyes, when the other option is to expose those players to the Rule 5 draft.

Beltran I think rather differently about, unless either the OF or the heart of the lineup suffers a season-ending injury before the deadline. The Sox just have too much outfield depth and too strong a 2-3-4-5 to shell out for him.

And IMO there's no way on god's green earth that Coyle gets traded in a deadline deal. Pedroia's a team leader and fan favorite, but with such a max-effort game his age-32 season (the one after his option is up) probably should be measured in catcher's years. Coyle putting up tremendous isoD numbers in AAA by then would give the Sox a real choice, something they didn't have when it was time to re-up Mike Lowell.

Or, Coyle could flame out -- but since he's not part of the 40-man crunch, there's no reason to throw him into a trade as random filler.




#28 phragle


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Posted 10 June 2011 - 04:09 PM

I can completely see the Sox overpaying with crunch-risk talent to acquire Reyes, when the other option is to expose those players to the Rule 5 draft.

Beltran I think rather differently about, unless either the OF or the heart of the lineup suffers a season-ending injury before the deadline. The Sox just have too much outfield depth and too strong a 2-3-4-5 to shell out for him.

From what I have heard his acquisition cost is going to be pretty low. The Mets just want to get away from his contract.

I think we can all stop talking about Reyes and Bautista.

#29 tmlhttr98

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Posted 10 June 2011 - 06:11 PM

They are under heavy fan pressure to re-sign him, so I think the asking price will be worth more than the value, as great as that is.

Beltran is a different story. Johan Keri at FG lists the Phillies, Rays, Giants, and Diamondbacks as other clubs looking for corner OFers, and the Rays and Dbacks can't afford him.


While I do agree we need an upgrade at RF, how has Beltran been doing this season. I admit I haven't watched any Mets baseball this year. I remember this past offseason his name was thrown around and the general answer was no thanks due to the questions about his health and bat.

#30 tmlhttr98

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Posted 10 June 2011 - 06:14 PM

From what I have heard his acquisition cost is going to be pretty low. The Mets just want to get away from his contract.

I think we can all stop talking about Reyes and Bautista.


What becomes of Drew and Cameron? Im all for just releasing Cameron but will Tito really take Drew's starting spot away from him that easily?

#31 phragle


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Posted 10 June 2011 - 06:26 PM

While I do agree we need an upgrade at RF, how has Beltran been doing this season. I admit I haven't watched any Mets baseball this year. I remember this past offseason his name was thrown around and the general answer was no thanks due to the questions about his health and bat.

You can't look up stats yourself?

What becomes of Drew and Cameron? Im all for just releasing Cameron but will Tito really take Drew's starting spot away from him that easily?

Cameron is gone and Drew plays half as much. He hasn't exactly been good, Drew that is.

#32 tmlhttr98

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Posted 10 June 2011 - 07:13 PM

You can't look up stats yourself?


Cameron is gone and Drew plays half as much. He hasn't exactly been good, Drew that is.


I can but stats can be misleading obviously. I was looking for someone's opinion who actually knows what they are talking about. Not saying you dont either.


I would be thrilled to see Cameron gone and Drew playing half as much but I have a hard time believing that Tito would be that inclined to do so.

#33 Eric Van


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Posted 22 June 2011 - 08:26 AM

I'm officially adding Stephen Fife to the list of guys you'd definitely want to protect if the season ended today.

Very fine pedigree: 3rd round pick, #17 prospect a year ago before a mediocre year in AA bumped him off the list.

And after a so-so first four starts, he's come on really strong in his last eight: 2.09 True ERA, 2.92 Component*, 2.99 BABIP-Neutral, 2.77 Net, 5.09 MLE. That translates to a guy who (with average improvement) can be an above-average setup guy next year, and who eventually has a shot at the back end of a big-league rotation. Even his full season stats (2.78, 3.05, 3.10, 2.94 = 5.36 MLE) look like a guy you'd want to protect, given his background.

*That's a Scatter/Cluster of 0.70 (allowed 70% as many runs as expected), and he's 0.85 on the season, but he was 1.10 last year, so there's no evidence yet of a scattering skill (which happens if you're unusually consistent with your mechanics and/or pitch unusually well from the stretch).

Jason Rice is close, and would probably be an easy call in a less packed system.

And the Helium Watch guy is Brock Huntzinger, whose last four starts would put him 4th among the system's starters in Age Relative to League Adjusted MLE -- after Weiland, Doubront, and Wilson and ahead of Ranaudo, Fife, and CBM (who was 3rd on this list 10 days ago but has had two rough outings in a row). However, he may need to step it up a bit further before he looks like he could be useful in an MLB pen next year (or be attractive enough long-term), and hence be someone you'd go out of your way to protect.

Edited by Eric Van, 22 June 2011 - 08:30 AM.


#34 phragle


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Posted 22 June 2011 - 10:24 AM

You know, Hanley is stinking it up in Miami, and is making 11 mil for a team that is already 13 games out. He is also set to make 46.5 million the next three seasons. If we are going to dream I'd rather go after him than Reyes.

Would a package of Iglesias, Doubront, Anderson, Exposito, and Bowden get conversations started?

Edit: No probably not, but would if you added Navarro?

Edited by phragle, 22 June 2011 - 10:34 AM.


#35 Jed Zeppelin


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Posted 22 June 2011 - 10:48 AM

I was thinking about Hanley too given some of his troubles in Florida over the last season or two. Getting called out by much less experienced players is not a good sign. I'd be shocked if Theo hasn't been inquiring as there might never be a better time to strike.

Iglesias is kind of the anti-Hanley, which could be a good thing as is the fact that he's Cuban. There aren't many guys in the system I wouldn't include in a Hanley deal. It would probably take something like Iglesias, Kalish/Reddick, one of the top pitching prospects and a lotto ticket like Head or Brentz.

#36 OttoC


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Posted 22 June 2011 - 11:17 AM

Weren't there already issues between the club and Hanley Ramirez before the Red Sox traded him to Florida? The Red Sox are leading the majors in runs, avg, ops, and so on, in spite of having a combination of Scutaro and Lowrie playing shortstop. Why rape the farm system and take on that much salary for a player who isn't a particularly good fielder and who doesn't seem to be a particularly good teammate?

#37 phragle


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Posted 22 June 2011 - 11:48 AM

Weren't there already issues between the club and Hanley Ramirez before the Red Sox traded him to Florida? The Red Sox are leading the majors in runs, avg, ops, and so on, in spite of having a combination of Scutaro and Lowrie playing shortstop. Why rape the farm system and take on that much salary for a player who isn't a particularly good fielder and who doesn't seem to be a particularly good teammate?

Well all the guys I suggested are on the 40-man, and don't have a particularly bright future with the Red Sox. Except Iglesias, who would be directly replaced by Hanley. I wouldn't even call that raping the system.

I shouldn't need to tell you that from 2008-2010 he is fifth in fWAR in all of baseball, and 2nd, 3rd, and 12th in VORP in those respective years.

#38 Jed Zeppelin


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Posted 22 June 2011 - 11:55 AM

They certainly don't need him but it's worth it to investigate any possible upgrades.

#39 SoxScout


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Posted 22 June 2011 - 12:10 PM

Well all the guys I suggested are on the 40-man, and don't have a particularly bright future with the Red Sox. Except Iglesias, who would be directly replaced by Hanley. I wouldn't even call that raping the system.


And they all have a very good chance at sucking. What are the Marlins going to do with Anderson? Jed Zeppelin is clearly more on the right track of an offer that the Marlins wouldn't laugh off.

That being said, he is their best player and their franchise player. He is sucking right now, but there is like a 99% chance that that wont last and he will be the darling again. They aren't trading him as the move into a new stadium for anything less then a holy-fucking-shit package.

Didn't the Red Sox, when trying to trade for him before, see him not as a SS but outfielder anyways?

Edited by SoxScout, 22 June 2011 - 12:11 PM.


#40 phragle


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Posted 22 June 2011 - 12:56 PM

And they all have a very good chance at sucking. What are the Marlins going to do with Anderson? Jed Zeppelin is clearly more on the right track of an offer that the Marlins wouldn't laugh off.

That being said, he is their best player and their franchise player. He is sucking right now, but there is like a 99% chance that that wont last and he will be the darling again. They aren't trading him as the move into a new stadium for anything less then a holy-fucking-shit package.

Didn't the Red Sox, when trying to trade for him before, see him not as a SS but outfielder anyways?

So does any prospect. It's easy enough to shoot down any trade by saying "he could end up sucking".

Anyway this isn't the 'What is the best way to get Hanley thread' it's the '40 man roster squeeze thread'. The point of any trade discussion in this thread is getting the best player(s) we can for the players we don't need to protect.

But yeah good point on the stadium.

Edited by phragle, 22 June 2011 - 12:57 PM.


#41 phragle


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Posted 22 June 2011 - 01:12 PM

Joe Pawlikowski obviously reads my posts

http://www.fangraphs...hanley-ramirez/

#42 OttoC


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Posted 22 June 2011 - 02:19 PM

Well all the guys I suggested are on the 40-man, and don't have a particularly bright future with the Red Sox. Except Iglesias, who would be directly replaced by Hanley. I wouldn't even call that raping the system....

I was thinking of the package someone suggested: Iglesias, Kalish/Reddick, one of the top pitching prospects and a lotto ticket like Head or Brentz.

#43 Puffy

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Posted 22 June 2011 - 03:00 PM

Not to imply that Hanley Ramirez isn't a great player, but what do we make of his 2010 - 2011 offensive performance and offensive projections moving forward. It does make a difference if he is elite SS 7 fWAR type player, or a "mere" very great 5 fWAR player. It was the immense offensive production that made his defense tolerable - he's poor to average defensively at SS and expected to get worse. I suppose he could man SS for the remainder of the year and then the OF could be shuffled for 2012 - 2014 if you think he is better stashed away in LF or CF. Or maybe his bat still plays at SS even if he is subpar defensively? Add in his reputation as a clubhouse malcontent and a $15 million price tag and it's not the complete no-brainer it would seem to be at face value, at least in terms of where he fits on the roster/with this club.

#44 tmlhttr98

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Posted 22 June 2011 - 05:48 PM

And they all have a very good chance at sucking. What are the Marlins going to do with Anderson? Jed Zeppelin is clearly more on the right track of an offer that the Marlins wouldn't laugh off.

That being said, he is their best player and their franchise player. He is sucking right now, but there is like a 99% chance that that wont last and he will be the darling again. They aren't trading him as the move into a new stadium for anything less then a holy-fucking-shit package.

Didn't the Red Sox, when trying to trade for him before, see him not as a SS but outfielder anyways?


Hanley is about as anti Florida Marlins as you get. He is making a crap ton of money and is due even more IIRC. Im shocked he hasnt been traded already. One thing to remember is that Theo gets the man he wants one way or another. Its no secret that he wanted AG for YEARS. He eventually struck at the right time and got him. There are two other players that we know of outright that Theo covets. Hanley and King Flex.

#45 tmlhttr98

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Posted 22 June 2011 - 05:54 PM

I was thinking of the package someone suggested: Iglesias, Kalish/Reddick, one of the top pitching prospects and a lotto ticket like Head or Brentz.


Thats not really raping the system at all. Iglesias would be directly replaced by Hanley. One of the Kalish/Reddick combo will need to be moved regardless. You are wasting one by having them both on the 25 man at the same time. Someone like Head is still a HUGE question mark. While he is having a stellar season its still in A ball. Realistically the only "dent" to the system would be the pitching prospect. I would call Ranaudo off limits. The rest is fair game. A Iglesias, Reddick, Head and Pitching Prospect TBN is not a "raping" package. I am not sure if thats enough anyway.

#46 Troy O'Lovely

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Posted 22 June 2011 - 07:46 PM

Thats not really raping the system at all. Iglesias would be directly replaced by Hanley. One of the Kalish/Reddick combo will need to be moved regardless. You are wasting one by having them both on the 25 man at the same time. Someone like Head is still a HUGE question mark. While he is having a stellar season its still in A ball. Realistically the only "dent" to the system would be the pitching prospect. I would call Ranaudo off limits. The rest is fair game. A Iglesias, Reddick, Head and Pitching Prospect TBN is not a "raping" package. I am not sure if thats enough anyway.


I am not trying to start trouble where there is none, nor needlessly speculate, but... whichever between Kalish or Reddick we are assuming is expendable is only expendable if the FO believes going forward that they can afford to resign Jacoby. They may believe with Boras as an agent it may be a price they are unwilling to pay. Regardless, for a while a four-man outfield of Crawford, Ellsbury, Reddick and Kalish is certainly a workable proposition for next year (provided Drew retires and last rites are finally performed on the corpse of Cameron), especially given that Kalish would be a rookie for all intents and purposes.

#47 Troy O'Lovely

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Posted 22 June 2011 - 09:05 PM

Can I add a little love for Alex Wilson? He's currently sporting a 1.15 WHIP including 1.04 in his last 10 games, an almost 3:1 K/BB and a 7.8 K/9. His ERA for the season is 3.16 and opponents are batting .228 against him (2.66 and .202 respectively in his last 10). Fife and CBM are getting attention, it seems Alex Wilson is getting somewhat overlooked. Is there a particular reason why I may not know about? I can't catch the SeaDogs in person so all I have are stats but can't find a scouting report that points out a major flaw, and he seems to be having almost as good a season as Fife.

#48 tbrown_01923

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Posted 22 June 2011 - 09:12 PM

Alex Wilson still has another year before becomming rule 5 eligible. Also a high draft pick, htought to be a back of the pen guy down the line - I don't think anybody has fogotten him...

Can I add a little love for Alex Wilson? He's currently sporting a 1.15 WHIP including 1.04 in his last 10 games, an almost 3:1 K/BB and a 7.8 K/9. His ERA for the season is 3.16 and opponents are batting .228 against him (2.66 and .202 respectively in his last 10). Fife and CBM are getting attention, it seems Alex Wilson is getting somewhat overlooked. Is there a particular reason why I may not know about? I can't catch the SeaDogs in person so all I have are stats but can't find a scouting report that points out a major flaw, and he seems to be having almost as good a season as Fife.



#49 Eric Van


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Posted 23 June 2011 - 04:06 AM

Alex Wilson still has another year before becomming rule 5 eligible. Also a high draft pick, htought to be a back of the pen guy down the line - I don't think anybody has fogotten him...

According to my numbers he's the single most improved pitcher in the system, and he and Weiland are the two real bright spots in the system this year. I would go further and say that (like Weiland) he's making an argument for staying in the rotation, although that would likely be after a trade. And they have both established closer potential.

#50 phragle


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Posted 23 June 2011 - 04:21 AM

Getting rid of Wheeler and calling up Atch would free up a spot and have almost no downside. Thoughts?