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Derek Jeter: Countdown to 3500 Hits


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#1 jon abbey


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Posted 04 May 2011 - 02:12 PM

OK, with his horrific start (which should be even worse, he's had quite a bit of luck on infield dribblers so far), the debate over Jeter going forward has been reignited. It seems to me as if there are four courses of action for NY to take:

1) Keep things just as they are, hope they keep winning games, and keep pretending that by far your worst hitter isn't leading off every night.
2) Staying in the lineup but moving down in the order.
3) Having Nunez take some of his time.
4) Getting a replacement for him in the offseason, Jose Reyes being the most obvious fit (he is a FA).

Option #2 seems inevitable to start, and soon, but of course if it were me, I would have moved him to the bottom of the lineup against RHP last summer. Granderson, Swisher and Gardner are all better fits for the top 2 than Jeter at this point, to state the obvious.

Nunez should also be playing at least 1-2 times a week, I think, but I'm sure NY wants to get this 3000 hit thing out of the way as soon as possible.

#2 terrynever


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Posted 04 May 2011 - 02:24 PM

OK, with his horrific start (which should be even worse, he's had quite a bit of luck on infield dribblers so far), the debate over Jeter going forward has been reignited. It seems to me as if there are four courses of action for NY to take:

1) Keep things just as they are, hope they keep winning games, and keep pretending that by far your worst hitter isn't leading off every night.
2) Staying in the lineup but moving down in the order.
3) Having Nunez take some of his time.
4) Getting a replacement for him in the offseason, Jose Reyes being the most obvious fit (he is a FA).

Option #2 seems inevitable to start, and soon, but of course if it were me, I would have moved him to the bottom of the lineup against RHP last summer. Granderson, Swisher and Gardner are all better fits for the top 2 than Jeter at this point, to state the obvious.

Nunez should also be playing at least 1-2 times a week, I think, but I'm sure NY wants to get this 3000 hit thing out of the way as soon as possible.

This will turn into a place for Sox fans to mock Jeter but man, he was a wonderful player to watch for 15 seasons. Not as great as many in the media made him out to be. Not ever the most important player on the team. Just a consistent everyday shortstop and top of the order hitter. Amazing that his ability to hit fastballs went away so suddenly in the summer of 2010.

#3 Average Reds


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Posted 04 May 2011 - 02:29 PM

OK, with his horrific start (which should be even worse, he's had quite a bit of luck on infield dribblers so far), the debate over Jeter going forward has been reignited. It seems to me as if there are four courses of action for NY to take:

1) Keep things just as they are, hope they keep winning games, and keep pretending that by far your worst hitter isn't leading off every night.
2) Staying in the lineup but moving down in the order.
3) Having Nunez take some of his time.
4) Getting a replacement for him in the offseason, Jose Reyes being the most obvious fit (he is a FA).

Option #2 seems inevitable to start, and soon, but of course if it were me, I would have moved him to the bottom of the lineup against RHP last summer. Granderson, Swisher and Gardner are all better fits for the top 2 than Jeter at this point, to state the obvious.

Nunez should also be playing at least 1-2 times a week, I think, but I'm sure NY wants to get this 3000 hit thing out of the way as soon as possible.


As much as I might wish to believe otherwise, I do not think that the ghost of Julio Lugo has somehow entered the soul of Derek Jeter.

Being prudent, I think the Yankees will land on a strategy that encompasses some combination of points 1, 2 and 3, but before any decision is made the entire issue will be rendered moot by Jeter's improved play.

#4 SaveBooFerriss


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Posted 04 May 2011 - 02:29 PM

Amazing that his ability to hit fastballs went away so suddenly in the summer of 2010.


Is it amazing though? Seems normal. Hey, Jeter outlasted Nomar. With some exceptions, guys simply start to show their age.

#5 mikeford


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Posted 04 May 2011 - 02:30 PM

His sharp, steep and dramatic fall from grace has been a pleasure to behold from the other side of the fence.

I only wish that his massively overvalued contract would actually hamper the Yankees financially going forward, but we all know that money doesn't matter to that club.

#6 foulkehampshire


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Posted 04 May 2011 - 02:58 PM

His sharp, steep and dramatic fall from grace has been a pleasure to behold from the other side of the fence.

I only wish that his massively overvalued contract would actually hamper the Yankees financially going forward, but we all know that money doesn't matter to that club.


I think they're more worried about the PR hit when they decide to make him a part-time player. The Yankees made him into a living icon.

#7 brs3


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Posted 04 May 2011 - 03:00 PM

12 of Jeter's 26 hits this season have come in his last 10 games(for a .300 average), and he's garnered those hits in about 20 fewer at bats than he needed for the first 14 hits. He hit into 3 DPs in the first 16 games, none in the last ten. We're dealing with a incredibly small number, when you factor in the reality that it can take time to get started on a season for guys like him who are pressing anyway.

The MFY probably know this, and they're going to leave well enough alone until he actually starts slumping.

edit: spelling

Edited by brs3, 04 May 2011 - 03:01 PM.


#8 Seabass177


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Posted 04 May 2011 - 03:02 PM

Posnanski, of course, just wrote about the Captain's downward spiral this year. And he posts some amazing stats:

Look at the breakdown of Derek Jeter's 26 hits this year:

Infield singles: 11
Ground balls through left side: 2 (one a double)
Ground balls up middle: 4
Ground balls through right side: 3 (one a double)
Looper to right field: 2
Line drives: 4

We're only talking about 116 plate appearances, and as Jeter says, a couple of four-hit games and he's right back in it. But look at that collection of hits. Almost half of Derek Jeter's all-too-rare hits were infield singles. Only six of the 26 were hit in the air.


Basically, he has no power left.

Edited by Seabass177, 04 May 2011 - 03:05 PM.


#9 chrisfont9

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Posted 04 May 2011 - 03:10 PM

I think they're more worried about the PR hit when they decide to make him a part-time player. The Yankees made him into a living icon.


Serious Yankee fans have been begging them to downgrade Jeter for years. So they take a PR hit from who? Their version of the pink hats? If there is one redeeming quality in the stereotypical New Yorker, it's his/her willingness to call bullshit when they see it. So I'm not sure acting has more risks here than failing to act.

#10 jon abbey


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Posted 04 May 2011 - 03:21 PM

12 of Jeter's 26 hits this season have come in his last 10 games(for a .300 average), and he's garnered those hits in about 20 fewer at bats than he needed for the first 14 hits. He hit into 3 DPs in the first 16 games, none in the last ten. We're dealing with a incredibly small number, when you factor in the reality that it can take time to get started on a season for guys like him who are pressing anyway.

The MFY probably know this, and they're going to leave well enough alone until he actually starts slumping.


This is what I referenced in the first post, though. His line drive percentage is way down, his ground ball percentage is even higher than it was before (and I think he led the majors last year in this), and he almost never hits the ball hard anywhere, let alone for any power. Yes, he's getting "hits", but a huge percentage of them are weakly hit ground balls, that is not something that one would think could continue for too long.

And all of this was evident for most of last year also, it's not solely a one month problem. I'm not advocating benching him (yet), but it's absurd to continue to lead him off, at least until he shows some signs of life.

#11 brs3


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Posted 04 May 2011 - 03:43 PM

This is what I referenced in the first post, though. His line drive percentage is way down, his ground ball percentage is even higher than it was before (and I think he led the majors last year in this), and he almost never hits the ball hard anywhere, let alone for any power. Yes, he's getting "hits", but a huge percentage of them are weakly hit ground balls, that is not something that one would think could continue for too long.

And all of this was evident for most of last year also, it's not solely a one month problem. I'm not advocating benching him (yet), but it's absurd to continue to lead him off, at least until he shows some signs of life.


My thought is the last 10 games are indicative of getting out of the early season funk. A dink here, a dink there, to get things started. Of course, if he doesn't build on it and actually start hitting, all bets are off. B-ref doesn't give the fly ball/gb ratio for each month, but I'd be curious what his September/Oct numbers were, when he showed some rebound on an awful season to that point.

#12 Al Zarilla


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Posted 04 May 2011 - 04:09 PM

4) Getting a replacement for him in the offseason, Jose Reyes being the most obvious fit (he is a FA).


Sandy Alderson, who used to be local here with the A's, called into KNBR Gary Radnich talk this morning. The first subject was Reyes, because Miguel Tejada, now a Giant, looks pretty washed up and there have been rumors flying around here. First, Radnich tried to feel him out about the Mets restaffing and would they re-sign Reyes as part of it. Alderson hedged a bit, saying he was the kind of player to rebuild aound, etc., but money would talk. Long story short, Alderson thought Reyes would be looking for Werth or Crawford money. Yanks could afford that, Giants probably not because they'll have some pitchers to pay pretty soon. I never thought of Reyes as a 20 million a year player, but didn't think that of Werth or Crawford either.

#13 glennhoffmania


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Posted 04 May 2011 - 04:10 PM

I think this will be one of the more interesting stories of the season. He clearly shouldn't be hitting at the top of the lineup unless he has a huge turn around, which seems unlikely. But the biggest issue is what Foulke said. They turned him into an icon, and now they have to figure out how to get out from under it.

As an aside, I have a bet with a Jeter-loving Yankee fan about whether Jeter ever reaches 3500 hits. The stakes are high- dinner, tickets to a Boston/NY game, and having to wear the opposing team's jersey at the game. I'm feeling safer by the day.

#14 rembrat


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Posted 04 May 2011 - 05:25 PM

I hope when Jeter gets to 3,000 that someone puts together a sped up montage of all these groundballs to the tune of Benny Hill's themesong.

#15 NoXInNixon

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Posted 04 May 2011 - 05:32 PM

I wonder at what point it would become correct to employ a "shift" against Jeter where you play one of your outfielders as an extra infielder.

#16 Toe Nash

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Posted 04 May 2011 - 06:20 PM

I wonder at what point it would become correct to employ a "shift" against Jeter where you play one of your outfielders as an extra infielder.

When's the next time they play the Rays? Maddon loves to overmanage, seems like something he'd do.

#17 BannedbyNYYFans.com

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Posted 04 May 2011 - 06:22 PM

Yeah, he can't hit anymore, but he makes up for it with his lack of range at SS.

#18 Saby

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Posted 04 May 2011 - 06:38 PM

The problem, in part, for the Yankees is he hasn't been so incredibly horrific ( eg. batting .185) that a permanent move to the bottom of the lineup or making him a part-time player would be understood by the majority of fans. Because of the weak grounders getting through, he's hitting .257 and to the average fan ( with no knowledge of BABIP and so on) that isn't too bad.

#19 th@tkid

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Posted 04 May 2011 - 07:42 PM

I just hope he does not do something stupid like get caught with PEDs trying to get an edge. in regards to Reyes if his price is lower than suggested up thread I wonder if the Sox dont make a real run at him. Theo loves fucking around with the shortstop position, and didnt they try and get Reyes when trying to trade Manny?

#20 NoXInNixon

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Posted 04 May 2011 - 08:47 PM

I just hope he does not do something stupid like get caught with PEDs trying to get an edge. in regards to Reyes if his price is lower than suggested up thread I wonder if the Sox dont make a real run at him. Theo loves fucking around with the shortstop position, and didnt they try and get Reyes when trying to trade Manny?

Any trade for Reyes would have to include either Lowrie or Iglesias. And then the Mets would have to throw in something else of value to make it a fair trade for either. I don't see that happening.

#21 BroodsSexton

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Posted 04 May 2011 - 08:57 PM

Simple. DFA.

#22 Wingack


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Posted 04 May 2011 - 09:32 PM

I really hope Cashman feels somewhat vindicated after some of things he said about Jeter this offseason and the disaster so far that the Soriano signing has been.

#23 th@tkid

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Posted 04 May 2011 - 09:39 PM

Any trade for Reyes would have to include either Lowrie or Iglesias. And then the Mets would have to throw in something else of value to make it a fair trade for either. I don't see that happening.


I thought he was a FA this winter.

Jeter leaves with a sore hip... day to day interested to see how this plays out of Nunez gets hot..

#24 kieckeredinthehead

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Posted 05 May 2011 - 03:20 AM

This thread feels a ton like the conversations everyone was having about Ortiz last April. I'd be shocked if he stayed this bad for the entire season.

#25 Sampo Gida

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Posted 05 May 2011 - 03:38 AM

This thread feels a ton like the conversations everyone was having about Ortiz last April. I'd be shocked if he stayed this bad for the entire season.


He was not much better last season aside from a decent April and the last 2 weeks of the season. From May 1-Sep 13 he hit 247/323/338/661.

I think he will be better than he has played the first month of the year, but I no longer think last year was an off year and that he will bounce back this year to pre-2010 form. But who knows.

#26 Saby

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Posted 05 May 2011 - 05:47 AM

Just to beat a dead dog: In his last 561 plate appearances going back to last season, Derek Jeter has hit one home run.

#27 Worst Trade Evah


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Posted 05 May 2011 - 07:39 AM

People always talk about PR hits, but is there really much evidence that those actually matter? I can see them swaying decisions that are basically 50/50 propositions anyway (which might be the case here), but it's pretty rare that something dead wrong is done over time just for PR reasons (Cal Ripken aside, which is one reason why I really hate these consecutive game records; Ripken's streak should have been broken years before it ended). Jeter has been a tremendous offensive player his whole career. Two years ago he was looking pretty good for 4000 hits. It's not crazy to think he'll figure something out and improve his performance, even though he is getting older. I agree that the larger the sample of really bad performance runs the worse it looks for him, but I can understand why they'd be patient with him, beyond worrying about PR.

Obviously, I have greatly enjoyed watching the succession of weak ground balls. I wish I could feel better about it lasting, but I do think he's going to improve, and probably already has.

Anyway, I think the effect of "PR" is generally way over-stated by baseball fans.

Edited by Worst Trade Evah, 05 May 2011 - 07:42 AM.


#28 RedOctober3829


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Posted 05 May 2011 - 09:59 AM

In 120 PAs, Jeter has 2 exta base hits and 12 walks. I'm sure you could find a pitcher or 2 who could do better than that.

Edited by RedOctober3829, 05 May 2011 - 10:00 AM.


#29 RingoOSU


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Posted 05 May 2011 - 10:04 AM

Not since Vida Blue in 1978 has a pitcher had 2 XBH and 12 walks in a season.

Edit: In 2010 in 66 PA Jonathon Niese drew 8 walks, and 2 doubles.

Edited by RingoOSU, 05 May 2011 - 10:18 AM.


#30 jon abbey


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Posted 05 May 2011 - 11:05 AM

2) Staying in the lineup but moving down in the order.
3) Having Nunez take some of his time.


Girardi comments on both of these in today's Post:

"Girardi sticking with a frigid Mark Teixeira in the No. 3 spot last year and having the switch-hitter rebound from a miserable start has given the manager confidence that moving Jeter out of the leadoff spot isn't a move that has to be made today.

"We have had other guys who have struggled in our lineup and we stuck with them," Girardi said. "It's still relatively early. Tex and the struggles he had last year and we stuck with him. I know it's different because of what happened last year and the age and the question of are we getting near the end?"

Despite Jeter's .250 average (27-for-108) and only two extra base hits and an on-base percentage of .318, Girardi isn't ready to lower his captain into the bottom half of the order.

Some believe such a move would have a negative effect in the Yankees' clubhouse.

"I can't tell you it would or it wouldn't," Girardi said of lowering Jeter in the order would cause a disturbance in the clubhouse. "We would only know if we were to do something. Derek has always been a guy who has been team first. We will do what we think is best."

While Jeter has consistently put the team ahead of individual accomplishments, Girardi doesn't expect the shortstop to suggest he be dropped in the lineup.

"I haven't seen many hitters go to the manager and say move me down in the lineup unless they want to hit third or fourth," Girardi said."



"Girardi would like to get Eduardo Nunez into the lineup a little more.

"Now that we are playing every day you are going to see him play more," Girardi said of the middle infielder who has appeared in 11 games and started two. He replaced Jeter last night."

http://www.nypost.co...69qPvcxBlKKkU1M

#31 SumnerH


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Posted 05 May 2011 - 04:41 PM

In 120 PAs, Jeter has 2 exta base hits and 12 walks. I'm sure you could find a pitcher or 2 who could do better than that.


Micah Owings in 151 PA as a pitcher has 5 walks and 20 XBH for a .895 OPS.

He's a career 2.6 (b-ref) WAR player: -0.3 from his pitching, +2.9 from his hitting.

#32 BoSox Rule

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Posted 06 May 2011 - 12:18 PM

I wish his 10 year deal was a 9 year deal instead.

#33 Omar's Wacky Neighbor

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Posted 06 May 2011 - 12:19 PM

Paraphrasing what one Yankee fan-dad said yesterday, when I brought up Jeter's 2011 campaign:

"as long as he hits .250-275 and fields like he's capable of fielding, that's fine. Well, yeah, he doesn't get to every ball like he used to, but he's still a good fielder: if the ball comes to him, he's still got great hands, he just doesn't mishandle any balls he gets to."

No mention of the .300 OBP, no mention of the .300 SLG, a passing mention of the non-existent range: just as long as he gets a hit every four ABs and doesn't muff anything hit directly at him, everything's peachy keen. Living in Yankee-land does have its moments............

#34 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 06 May 2011 - 12:28 PM

Jeter's OPS is still 60+ points higher than Carl Crawford.

#35 WayBackVazquez


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Posted 06 May 2011 - 12:33 PM

Jeter's OPS is still 60+ points higher than Carl Crawford.

And even still, over the last 365 days, it's 110 points lower.

#36 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 06 May 2011 - 12:42 PM

Yeah, certainly true. But I don't think Jeter will seem like a big problem until the Yankees, as a team, are doing poorly. Yankees are 17-12, in first place. If they fall out of first, the noise around Jeter will get a lot louder. But as of now, it's something they'll kind of avoid (like a slow start by Ortiz, when the Sox were doing well) and also, there's not really any better options. It's like complaining about Salty.

#37 jon abbey


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Posted 06 May 2011 - 01:07 PM

I wish his 10 year deal was a 9 year deal instead.


NY really dodged a bullet there, he'd probably be on the second year of a 6/150 deal (seriously).

#38 JerseyJay

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Posted 06 May 2011 - 01:31 PM

how about option 5:

Leave Jeter in Texas, drive away and pretend he no longer exsists.

#39 JerseyJay

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Posted 06 May 2011 - 01:36 PM

Yeah, certainly true. But I don't think Jeter will seem like a big problem until the Yankees, as a team, are doing poorly. Yankees are 17-12, in first place. If they fall out of first, the noise around Jeter will get a lot louder. But as of now, it's something they'll kind of avoid (like a slow start by Ortiz, when the Sox were doing well) and also, there's not really any better options. It's like complaining about Salty.


i think the "better option" is more in regards to where he hits, as opposed to someone else starting at SS in his place. I really dont mind jeter as an everyday player if he is hitting 8th or 9th.

#40 Puffy

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Posted 06 May 2011 - 01:49 PM

Some analysis on this topic from Fangraphs:

What's Wrong with Derek Jeter

The culprit for Jeterís lack of power is his league-leading 72% ground-ball rate. In fact, since the start of 2010 Jeter has hit two thirds of his balls in play on the ground. That is far and away the most of any major league player, and considerably higher than the 57% he has averaged since 2002. WIth this big change in ground-ball rate I assumed that Jeter was swinging more at pitches low in the zone, but that is not the case:



#41 Sprowl


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Posted 06 May 2011 - 01:58 PM

NY really dodged a bullet there, he'd probably be on the second year of a 6/150 deal (seriously).


Look on the bright side: Jeter gets paid less than John Lackey.

#42 Puffy

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Posted 06 May 2011 - 02:06 PM

I should preface this by saying that I am not an expert in swing mechanics and am aware that Chris O'Leary is a somewhat controversial figure, so take it FWIW.

Chris O'Leary has some rather in-depth analysis (recently updated) on Jeter's swing mechanics on his website. O'Leary's premise is that Jeter has always a serious mechanical flaw ("bat drag"/dominant back arm). He writes:

I have literally never seen a successful major leaguer, including Don Mattingly, swing like Derek Jeter does.


According to O'Leary, he has (most likely) overcome the flaw in the past by compensating with a quick bat and a great eye. He speculates that age and a slowing bat has exposed this fundamental flaw and that there may be no simple mechanical remedy, beyond totally rebuilding his swing from ground up. The flaw can lead to a tendency to uppercut which might be increasing the topspin he his putting on the ball, corresponding to the recent increase in GB%.

O'Leary has many animated GIFS and pictures on the page, but the one below seems to show one of the things that he is trying to point out - that his back elbow gets well ahead of his hands and causes him to make contact in front of where most typical major leaguers would make contact (Frames 48 to 52).

Posted Image

#43 Rasputin


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Posted 06 May 2011 - 02:10 PM

Jeter's OPS is still 60+ points higher than Carl Crawford.


And still has fewer total bases.

And of course a significant age difference.

Plus, Jeter is a wanker.

#44 Bob420

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Posted 06 May 2011 - 03:45 PM

I agree with O'Leary. I was talking about it on PinstripesPlus. I didn't have the video or the exact analysis but it is pretty clear to me that Jeter's swing requires super quick hands and any loss of bat speed would make it almost impossible for him to be a successful hitter. He can't really cheat like others do when they start to age and lose bat speed.

#45 abty

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Posted 07 May 2011 - 06:57 AM

That is one of the greatest finds I've seen in regards to swinging or pitching mechanics. It's something that one would think was discovered by scouts/hitting coaches throughout his career but they must have felt he can adapt to mlb pitcher so why tinker with it. Right? Or is it something that was maybe overlooked?

Edited by abty, 07 May 2011 - 06:58 AM.


#46 mabrowndog


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Posted 08 May 2011 - 03:00 PM

Jeter's 3-for-3 today inlcuding his first HR of the season. He's now riding a 6-game hitting streak, going 10-for-25 with a .400/.444/.560/1.000 line. Just one walk in his last 9 games, though.

#47 DukeSox


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Posted 08 May 2011 - 03:29 PM

Jeter's 3-for-3 today inlcuding his first HR of the season. He's now riding a 6-game hitting streak, going 10-for-25 with a .400/.444/.560/1.000 line. Just one walk in his last 9 games, though.

and now 2 HRs.

#48 Saby

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Posted 08 May 2011 - 03:36 PM

Oh, how easily ye lose faith!

Jokes aside, he's up to a more respectable .281/.336/.355. Whether it can continue remains to be seen but I would be ecstatic with that stat line for the season.

#49 jon abbey


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Posted 08 May 2011 - 04:13 PM

I said yesterday in the game thread he was showing signs of coming out of it, but wow, what a game today. He still shouldn't be leading off against RHP, but hopefully he can build on this.

#50 E5 Yaz


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Posted 08 May 2011 - 05:07 PM

I said yesterday in the game thread he was showing signs of coming out of it, but wow, what a game today. He still shouldn't be leading off against RHP, but hopefully he can build on this.


Nah, it's just the aberration that that will buy him another week or two.




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