376 replies to this topic

[xjack]

A bit off topic, but Salty's last at-bat last night was perfect example why MLB should use technology to call balls and strikes.

The situation: Aviles is on second with two outs. Tony Sipp is pitching for Cleveland. Salty works the count to 2-0 and then scalds a foul ball to left. He's clearly locked in, but then the 2-1 pitch is called a strike even though NESN's pitch tracker shows it to be three or four inches outside. Knowing he's got an oversized strike zone, Sipp then throws the 2-2 pitch in the exact same spot, and Salty strikes out looking -- despite the fact that there was only one legit strike in the entire at-bat.

I know all's well that ends well but still.

[Bucknahs Bum Ankle]

A bit off topic, but Salty's last at-bat last night was perfect example why MLB should use technology to call balls and strikes.

The situation: Aviles is on second with two outs. Tony Sipp is pitching for Cleveland. Salty works the count to 2-0 and then scalds a foul ball to left. He's clearly locked in, but then the 2-1 pitch is called a strike even though NESN's pitch tracker shows it to be three or four inches outside. Knowing he's got an oversized strike zone, Sipp then throws the 2-2 pitch in the exact same spot, and Salty strikes out looking -- despite the fact that there was only one legit strike in the entire at-bat.

I know all's well that ends well but still.

Here's that at bat. Not the exact same spot, but nearly as far outside. Terrible.



http://www.brooksbas...lemlb_bosmlb_1/

[xjack]

Thanks. The graphic tells the story even better.

[Eric Van]

Amusing goof in this morning's Globe, as Vega runs an item in RS Notebook praising Salty for his improved throwing:

....which, fortunately, isn't true. Salty has thrown out 22 of 78 runners for a league-average 28% success rate.

Does the Globe have fact-checkers or editors?

A few days ago we had Peter Abraham reporting with a straight face that the 20-6 July was the team's best month since they went 20-8 in May of 2007. (In fact, it was the best month by winning percentage since they went 24-6 in May of 1950, although they had a couple of 23-7 month in between, in May '78 and August '95, that most people would reasonably regard as better.)

[SoxScout]

Amusing goof in this morning's Globe, as Vega runs an item in RS Notebook praising Salty for his improved throwing:

....which, fortunately, isn't true. Salty has thrown out 22 of 78 runners for a league-average 28% success rate.

It's actually 16 of 73 for 22%. Pickoffs count as caught stealing for catcher behind the plate, so Vega removed them like you should. I commend him for not taking the easy way, actually. BR tracks this.

The average of the 54 catcher with at least 5 caught stealing this year is 23%.

Edited by SoxScout, 04 August 2011 - 03:04 PM.

[xjack]

It's actually 16 of 73 for 22%. Pickoffs count as caught stealing for catcher behind the plate, so Vega removed them like you should. BR tracks this.

The average of the 54 catcher with at least 5 caught stealing this year is 23%.

While it may be a fluke, Wakefield has somehow given up only 4 SBs this year in 9 attempts, and Salty has been catching most of Wakefield's starts.

[SumnerH]

It's actually 16 of 73 for 22%. Pickoffs count as caught stealing for catcher behind the plate, so Vega removed them like you should. I commend him for not taking the easy way, actually. BR tracks this.

The average of the 54 catcher with at least 5 caught stealing this year is 23%.

Caught stealing rate for catchers with at least 5 CS, using only legit catcher's CS:

46.15% Kelly Shoppach
46.15% Henry Blanco
45.45% Taylor Teagarden
42.86% Ivan Rodriguez
42.11% Lou Marson
41.67% Chris Gimenez
40.32% Matt Wieters
40.00% David Ross
35.71% Mike Napoli
33.33% Wilson Ramos
32.56% Ramon Hernandez
30.77% Drew Butera
30.00% Jose Molina
29.63% Chris Stewart
29.41% Landon Powell
28.99% Miguel Olivo
28.95% Buster Posey
28.57% Ryan Hanigan
28.57% Nick Hundley
27.71% Geovany Soto
27.27% Yadier Molina
27.27% Brayan Pena
26.09% Miguel Montero
25.00% Kyle Phillips
25.00% Joe Mauer
24.19% Carlos Ruiz
24.14% Yorvit Torrealba
24.10% Russell Martin
24.00% Michael McKenry
23.08% Alex Avila
22.73% Chris Snyder
22.22% Rod Barajas
21.92% Jarrod Saltalamacchia
21.57% Matt Treanor
20.93% Humberto Quintero
20.78% Chris Iannetta
20.00% Victor Martinez
19.30% Carlos Santana
19.15% Jason Varitek
19.05% Dioner Navarro
18.75% Carlos Corporan
18.60% Eli Whiteside
17.78% Kurt Suzuki
17.07% Ronny Paulino
16.67% Rob Johnson
16.67% Jeff Mathis
16.67% Brian McCann
16.42% Jonathan Lucroy
16.00% Josh Thole
16.00% John Buck
14.71% J.P. Arencibia
14.29% Hank Conger
13.33% John Jaso
10.98% A.J. Pierzynski

[Rough Carrigan]

So, Mike Napoli has almost twice the caught stealing rate of Jeff Mathis.

Isn't that one big fuck you from reality to Mike Scioscia. Enjoy your pet's .182 batting average, .224 on base percentage and .262 slugging percentage you jackass.

[Mike Greenwall]

42.86% for Ivan Rodriguez.

I know his bat has been toast for awhile now, but that is pretty impressive for a 39 year old. Best catcher's arm in MLB history? Best, I've seen.

[Eric Van]

So, Mike Napoli has almost twice the caught stealing rate of Jeff Mathis.

Isn't that one big fuck you from reality to Mike Scioscia. Enjoy your pet's .182 batting average, .224 on base percentage and .262 slugging percentage you jackass.

I think his problem with Napoli was pitch-calling, and IIRC Fielding Bible had him ranked near the bottom, and I found a significant difference between him and Mathis when I looked last winter.

[SumnerH]

42.86% for Ivan Rodriguez.

I know his bat has been toast for awhile now, but that is pretty impressive for a 39 year old. Best catcher's arm in MLB history? Best, I've seen.

Picking some names at random--these are numbers for post-1950 careers since b-ref's cutoff for the stat is that year. So someone like Yogi Berra is missing a few seasons.

Career CS/(CS+SB), using catcher CS:
Roy Campanella: 55.24%
Yogi Berra: 49.07%
Jim Hegan: 45.14%
Ivan Rodriguez: 41.39%
Johnny Bench: 41.35%
Yadier Molina: 40.33%
Jose Molina: 37.13%
Charles Johnson: 35.80%
Lance Parrish: 35.02%
Gary Carter: 32.40%
Carlton Fisk: 30.78%
Bengie Molina: 27.97%
Jorge Posada: 24.48%
Jason Varitek: 20.65%
Mike Piazza: 19.45%

Obviously how much the league runs and cares about CS has a huge impact on these numbers, so cross-era comparisons aren't too meaningful.

[bombdiggz]

I wouldn't mess with the 60/40 starting split, but I sure would start to pinch hit for Varitek much more liberally. Yes, Tek's performance at the plate tonight was about as dismal as dismal gets, and yes Tek has looked particularly fatigued of late and has looked like he could benefit from a little more rest, but those relatively short term observations aside, it is puzzling to me that Tito has ignored just how brutal Varitek has been against RHP the past three years (and in contrast the success Salty has had).

C'mon Tito you have shown the willingness to pinch run for Tek in a situation where that upgrade represents a tiny increase in win probability, but you repeatedly leave Tek in to flounder in situations that are much more meaningful to the outcome of the game? What gives?

[luckysox]

I wouldn't mess with the 60/40 starting split, but I sure would start to pinch hit for Varitek much more liberally. Yes, Tek's performance at the plate tonight was about as dismal as dismal gets, and yes Tek has looked particularly fatigued of late and has looked like he could benefit from a little more rest, but those relatively short term observations aside, it is puzzling to me that Tito has ignored just how brutal Varitek has been against RHP the past three years (and in contrast the success Salty has had).

C'mon Tito you have shown the willingness to pinch run for Tek in a situation where that upgrade represents a tiny increase in win probability, but you repeatedly leave Tek in to flounder in situations that are much more meaningful to the outcome of the game? What gives?

Salty was on deck in the 10th and if Reddick hadn't won it, Salty would have had his chance (if a bit too late).

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I wouldn't mess with the 60/40 starting split, but I sure would start to pinch hit for Varitek much more liberally. Yes, Tek's performance at the plate tonight was about as dismal as dismal gets, and yes Tek has looked particularly fatigued of late and has looked like he could benefit from a little more rest, but those relatively short term observations aside, it is puzzling to me that Tito has ignored just how brutal Varitek has been against RHP the past three years (and in contrast the success Salty has had).

C'mon Tito you have shown the willingness to pinch run for Tek in a situation where that upgrade represents a tiny increase in win probability, but you repeatedly leave Tek in to flounder in situations that are much more meaningful to the outcome of the game? What gives?

I would certainly mess with the 60/40 split -- the best answer is like a simple logic box problem: Varitek should always catch Beckett, never catch Wakefield, cannot catch two days in a row, but otherwise one more time per week when facing a LHSP.

That would make sense. So I expect it will never happen. OTOH, Lavarnway should be called up in September, which gives Tito both a RHH bench bat and also a third catcher.

[drbretto]

I would certainly mess with the 60/40 split -- the best answer is like a simple logic box problem: Varitek should always catch Beckett, never catch Wakefield, cannot catch two days in a row, but otherwise one more time per week when facing a LHSP.

That's 60/40

[Eric Van]

I would certainly mess with the 60/40 split -- the best answer is like a simple logic box problem: Varitek should always catch Beckett, never catch Wakefield, cannot catch two days in a row, but otherwise one more time per week when facing a LHSP.

That would make sense. So I expect it will never happen.

It essentially already is.

If you add that Varitek catches guys making their Sox debut (Weiland, Bedard), and that he sometimes catches one pair of a day game following a night game (both of which are completely reasonable rules) ... that's exactly what Tito has been doing since June 17th. Varitek has started 10 of the 15 times they've faced a LHP, the exceptions being when it was the day before or after Beckett was pitching (3), when Wakefield was pitching (1), and the first game after the ASB . He has only started three times vs. RHP when Beckett wasn't pitching: Weiland's debut, Bedard's debut, and a day game after a night game on 7/20.

[John DiFool]

I brought this up in the Chatter last night, only to have someone immediately shoot it down:

Shouldn't Salty just junk his RH stroke, and hit lefty against lefties? He has a yawning platoon gap (career 1st, 2011 2nd):

LH:
Career: .274 .342 .448 .790
2011: .275 .340 .518 .858

RH:
Career: .206 .264 .337 .601
2011: .206 .257 .371 .628

As a lefty, he's a potential All-Star; as a righty, he's complete dogmeat, with only a decent ISO saving him from complete ruin. As I said last night, if you are switch-hitting, but have a huge platoon split anyway, it ain't working now, is it?

At this point someone will undoubtedly chime in that he hasn't faced lefthanded breaking stuff as a lefty for years now, if ever. Sure, he shouldn't junk it now, but a lot of spring training reps could probably get him up to speed-I mean it isn't like he has much of anything to lose.

[JimBoSox9]

The number of hitters who have successfully transitioned away from switch-hitting after making the big leagues is roughly equivalent to the number of pitchers who have had successful careers throwing knuckleballs. Since Lavarnaway looks like the real deal as a hitter, I propose we just scrap this whole "Salty as a catcher" boondoggle and groom him as Wake's replacement. I'm not saying Salty should start pitching out of the pen now, but given enough reps in Spring Training he'll probably be able to post a league-average ERA with the knuck.

[C4CRVT]

I brought this up in the Chatter last night, only to have someone immediately shoot it down:

Shouldn't Salty just junk his RH stroke, and hit lefty against lefties? He has a yawning platoon gap (career 1st, 2011 2nd):

LH:
Career: .274 .342 .448 .790
2011: .275 .340 .518 .858

RH:
Career: .206 .264 .337 .601
2011: .206 .257 .371 .628

As a lefty, he's a potential All-Star; as a righty, he's complete dogmeat, with only a decent ISO saving him from complete ruin. As I said last night, if you are switch-hitting, but have a huge platoon split anyway, it ain't working now, is it?

At this point someone will undoubtedly chime in that he hasn't faced lefthanded breaking stuff as a lefty for years now, if ever. Sure, he shouldn't junk it now, but a lot of spring training reps could probably get him up to speed-I mean it isn't like he has much of anything to lose.

What's the league average platoon split for non-switch hitting LH hitters? (and RH hitters for the Jed discussion)? I guess I'm wondering, how much might there be to gain? Probably not that much.

That AB last night was like a bad flashback to WMP.

[Savin Hillbilly]

What's the league average platoon split for non-switch hitting LH hitters?

LHH vs. LHP:.248/.312/.363/.676

But it's hard to believe that Salty would become a league-average hitter as a lefty vs. lefties anytime soon, if ever. I think most here would agree that LHH vs. LHP is the toughest of the four platoon combinations on the hitter (it's the lowest of the four league splits). You're asking Salty to pick up that toughest of assignments in mid-career, when even if he's a natural LHH, he probably hasn't faced a LHP from the left side in many, many years, and if he's a natural RHH he may *never* have done so. That doesn't sound like a promising idea.

I think you just have to accept that Salty doesn't hit lefties well, and either platoon him or hope he improves over time.

[JakeRae]

Fortunately, Tek is a lot better against lefties. They should just get used in a strict platoon so that we don't have to worry about either's inadequacies from the other side of the plate.

[TFisNEXT]

Ted's last 4 years vs left handed pitching:

2011: .297/.366/.453
2010: .222/.276/.593 (SSS)
2009: .231/.336/.471
2008: .284/.378/.484

He's essentially the perfect platoon partner for Salty. They really should try and get Tek in there vs lefties as much as possible.

[twothousandone]

Ted's last 4 years vs left handed pitching:

2011: .297/.366/.453
2010: .222/.276/.593 (SSS)
2009: .231/.336/.471
2008: .284/.378/.484

He's essentially the perfect platoon partner for Salty. They really should try and get Tek in there vs lefties as much as possible.

I assume that's a typo, but Ted in his last four years was:

1960: .224/.352/.368 (.720)
1959: .218/.333/.327 (.661)
1958: .215/.363/.308 (.670)
1957: .319/.470/.495 (.965)

[trekfan55]

I assume that's a typo, but Ted in his last four years was:

1960: .224/.352/.368 (.720)
1959: .218/.333/.327 (.661)
1958: .215/.363/.308 (.670)
1957: .319/.470/.495 (.965)

Calling Tek "Ted" is a running joke here that may be as old as "Why did Payton sign here?"

Anyway, back on topic, Tek right now serves as Beckett's personal catcher, has also caught all of Bedard's starts (although that may not be written in stone), plus he will take the "day game after a night game" game. I don't see Tito making a change to platoon them this season, even though he seems to love some platoon splits.

[joe dokes]

Anyway, back on topic, Tek right now serves as Beckett's personal catcher, has also caught all of Bedard's starts (although that may not be written in stone), plus he will take the "day game after a night game" game. I don't see Tito making a change to platoon them this season, even though he seems to love some platoon splits.

To Tito, perceived advantage of having pitcher paired with right catcher > platoon advantage.

Hell if I know better.

[TFisNEXT]

Anyway, back on topic, Tek right now serves as Beckett's personal catcher, has also caught all of Bedard's starts (although that may not be written in stone), plus he will take the "day game after a night game" game. I don't see Tito making a change to platoon them this season, even though he seems to love some platoon splits.

Salty caught Bedard's last start. It was the rain-shortened one in the 2nd game of the Oakland double header.

[trekfan55]

Salty caught Bedard's last start. It was the rain-shortened one in the 2nd game of the Oakland double header.

I stand corrected. Although the day game after a night game rule applied and Tek caught the first game of the DH (catching Lester). Salty caught Wake on Friday night (and at least we know Tek cannot catch when Wakefield pitches). Of course, if Tek catching Bedard was "set in stone" then they could have flipped Bedard and Lester so as to make sure Tek catches Bedard.

An important point though, both Oakland pitchers were RH so there was no platoon matchup considerations to make.