429 replies to this topic

[tims4wins]

Michigan State is #2 and Duke is #3 in the latest RPI. The resumes are nearly identical so you may have a point with Duke having head-to-head wins on neutral floors. In my opinion, Duke is not going to win the ACC Tournament while one of MSU/OSU will win the Big 10 and one of KU/MU will win the Big 12. That will sway the committee enough to put Duke on the 2 seed line as the #5 overall seed. If they do get that, it really won't matter if they are a 1 or a 2 since they will be playing the same team in the Elite Eight(if they get that far)regardless. The only thing that the 1 seed has an advantage in that situation is they are wearing white.

Agree with everything you wrote, except this. Duke is 33-3 in the ACC tournament since 1999. Even in years when UNC has won the National Championship (2005, 2009), Duke has won the ACC tournament. It's kind of foolish to bet against Duke in that tournament.

Edit: also, Duke is still #2 in RPI according to this

Double edit: FWIW, Lunardi has this to say about the situation:

Essentially three "playoffs" are occurring, within the Big 12 (Kansas vs. Missouri), Big Ten (Michigan State vs. Ohio State) and ACC (Duke vs. North Carolina). If any of these six teams win both the outright regular-season and conference tournament titles, they should be the remaining No. 1 seeds.
• In the unlikely event of three double-double champions, I would rank the six possibilities in this order (for seeding purposes): Duke, Michigan State, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio State.
The reason for Duke and Michigan State leading the list is the ability of each to go 3-0 against their respective conference rival. The Blue Devils get the final nod over State on account of their neutral-court victory against the Spartans. The Devils do not get the nod over Sparty today because they do not have an outright lead in their conference.

Edited by tims4wins, 24 February 2012 - 04:06 PM.

[RedOctober3829]

Agree with everything you wrote, except this. Duke is 33-3 in the ACC tournament since 1999. Even in years when UNC has won the National Championship (2005, 2009), Duke has won the ACC tournament. It's kind of foolish to bet against Duke in that tournament.

Edit: also, Duke is still #2 in RPI according to this

Double edit: FWIW, Lunardi has this to say about the situation:

All valid points, but here are the official RPI's from the NCAA site. I only look at the ones the NCAA puts out. If it comes out and MSU/Duke switch, then that's fine.
http://www.ncaa.org/...bb+nitty+gritty

Edited by RedOctober3829, 24 February 2012 - 04:16 PM.

[tims4wins]

All valid points, but here is the updated RPI's from the NCAA site.
http://www.ncaa.org/...bb+nitty+gritty

Right, except it hasn't been updated with last night's results; Duke is now 24-4 and passed MSU in RPI.

Edit: actually, it hasn't been updated since Sunday

Edited by tims4wins, 24 February 2012 - 04:17 PM.

[RedOctober3829]

Right, except it hasn't been updated with last night's results; Duke is now 24-4 and passed MSU in RPI.

Edit: actually, it hasn't been updated since Sunday

It's a weekly release from the NCAA.

[Greg29fan]

It's going to be interesting to see what having the ACC Tournament in Atlanta is going to do this year - it would seem to lessen the "Carolina" home-court advantage that the four schools get playing in Greensboro or Charlotte but obviously Duke and UNC's fan bases travel anyways.

Edited by Greg29fan, 24 February 2012 - 04:31 PM.

[tims4wins]

It's a weekly release from the NCAA.

Right.

Granted, I'm biased, but I don't really see how MSU could be seeded over Duke at this point. Duke is 24-4, MSU is 22-5. Duke is 12-2 road + neutral, MSU is 6-5. Duke is 7-4 vs. the top 50, MSU is 9-4 (point, MSU). But Duke is 14-4 against top 100, while MSU is only 11-5. Duke is 10-2 in its last 12 games, MSU is 9-3. And Duke beat MSU head to head.

[tims4wins]

It's going to be interesting to see what having the ACC Tournament in Atlanta is going to do this year - it would seem to lessen the "Carolina" home-court advantage that the four schools get playing in Greensboro or Charlotte but obviously Duke and UNC's fan bases travel anyways.

I don't think it will matter a ton. The only real effect I could see is that FSU fans might travel a little better than usual since they have a very good team this year.

[minischwab]

It's going to be interesting to see what having the ACC Tournament in Atlanta is going to do this year - it would seem to lessen the "Carolina" home-court advantage that the four schools get playing in Greensboro or Charlotte but obviously Duke and UNC's fan bases travel anyways.

The last 5 times the ACC Tournament has been played outside the state of NC, Duke or UNC has won. Gary Williams used to complain about the "home-court advantage" the in-state schools got. In 2005, the tournament went to DC. Maryland proceeded to lose in the 1st round (8/9 game). Aside from Maryland beating Duke in 2004 (in Greensboro), the last non-North Carolina based team to win an ACC tournament was Georgia Tech in 1993, and that was in Charlotte.

I think seeding plays a much bigger factor than location, avoiding the "bad" matchup in the quarterfinals or semifinals is the key to winning the tournament.

[tims4wins]

Undefeated on the road in the ACC. Unbelievable. Never expected that out of this team.

[Greg29fan]

let's just hope they finish w/3 losses at Cameron Indoor

[Drocca]

Inevitable that it would come to this but it really brings back that game and how much ass we were kicking and how utterly in the bag it was and then squandered. Oh well, can't dwell. Saturday night should be another fantastic basketball game. I really hope to come out on top this time.

[Hendu's Gait]

Go Heels!

[BigSoxFan]

The Plumlees are terrible. What an overrated family.

[Greg29fan]

Duke is likely to have a big run and get back in it but that's as good a first half as I've seen Carolina play since 09

[Rossox]

Will this game be hyped as much by ESPN in two years when the teams are playing for 2nd place?

[RedOctober3829]

So about that 1 seed for Duke......down. the. drain.

[Greg29fan]

fantastic win - Duke did get back into it when they got it to 11 and could have gotten it into single digits. They missed a pile of free throws.

[tims4wins]

So about that 1 seed for Duke......down. the. drain.

Not that I'd bet on it, but if Duke beats UNC for the ACC championship then I would think they'd still have a good shot.

[PaulinMyrBch]

The key to the seeding this year is to be the overall 3-6, you don't want to slip to 7 or 8 and be a #2 seed in a bracket with Kentucky or Syracuse. So UNC will likely be the 3 or 4 and Duke the 5 or 6, it won't make much difference unless one of them slips to being the #2 in the strong bracket.

So Kansas, Duke, UNC, Michigan State, Ohio State, Mizzou....who is the 7 and 8 out of that group?

[Greg29fan]

I think Carolina has to win the ACC Tourney to get a 1 seed - that 3-4 record vs the top teams in the RPI sticks out like a sore thumb

[RedOctober3829]

The key to the seeding this year is to be the overall 3-6, you don't want to slip to 7 or 8 and be a #2 seed in a bracket with Kentucky or Syracuse. So UNC will likely be the 3 or 4 and Duke the 5 or 6, it won't make much difference unless one of them slips to being the #2 in the strong bracket.

So Kansas, Duke, UNC, Michigan State, Ohio State, Mizzou....who is the 7 and 8 out of that group?

As of right now.....
1. Kentucky
2. Syracuse
3. Kansas
4. Ohio State
5. UNC
6. Duke
7. Missouri
8. Michigan State

Edited by RedOctober3829, 03 March 2012 - 09:44 PM.

[Greg29fan]

I will never complain about winning a conference title but I've always found it interesting that one of the rewards for winning the ACC is that you get to play the first game on Friday in the tournament. Obviously you get to play the lowest seeded team remaining but you'd think you'd get to play at a regular game time like 7 or 9 p.m. for winning the regular season title, leaving the 2nd/3rd/4th seeds to play those earlier games.

Edited by Greg29fan, 04 March 2012 - 02:18 AM.

[tims4wins]

The benefit of playing at noon is extra rest throughout the tourney. They get 2 more hours of rest than the 4 seed, and 7 more than the 2nd seed coming into Saturday. Then if they win Saturday they get 2 more hours of rest than the 2/3 seed winner. Over the course of a quick 3 day tournament those hours can be meaningful. Plus it's not like playing a noon game is totally foreign, every team plays a handful of early Saturday afternoon games throughout the season.

[tims4wins]

As of right now.....
1. Kentucky
2. Syracuse
3. Kansas
4. Ohio State
5. UNC
6. Duke
7. Missouri
8. Michigan State

FWIW, Lunardi has it as:

1-KENTUCKY 2-SYRACUSE 3-KANSAS 4-NO. CAROLINA
8-Ohio State 7-Missouri 6-Duke 5-Michigan State

[tims4wins]

No better place for it, so here is how the ACC tournament shapes up:

Thursday 3/8:
Game 1 (12:00pm): #8 Maryland vs. #9 Wake Forest
Game 2 (2:30pm): #5 NC State vs. #12 Boston College
Game 3 (7:00pm): #7 Clemson vs. #10 Virginia Tech
Game 4 (9:30pm): #6 Miami vs. #11 Georgia Tech

Friday 3/9:
Game 5 (12:00pm): #1 UNC vs. Game 1 Winner
Game 6 (2:30pm): #4 Virginia vs. Game 2 Winner
Game 7 (7:00pm): #2 Duke vs. Game 3 Winner
Game 8 (9:30pm): #3 FSU vs. Game 4 Winner

Saturday 3/10:
Game 9 (1:00pm): Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner
Game 10 (3:30pm): Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner

Sunday 3/11:
Game 11 (1:00pm): Game 9 Winner vs. Game 10 Winner

My predictions:
Maryland over Wake
NC State over BC
Virginia Tech over Clemson
Miami over Georgia Tech

UNC over Maryland
NC State over Virginia
Duke over Virginia Tech
FSU over Miami

UNC over NC State
FSU over Duke

UNC over FSU

[Hendu's Gait]

No better place for it, so here is how the ACC tournament shapes up:

There's a championship week thread started by RedOctober

[Greg29fan]

Z won ACC Player of the Year today & Henson was Defensive Player of the Year. A good haul.

[minischwab]

Ryan Kelly will sit out the ACC Tournament with a sprained foot. May be better for Duke in the long run to see if Hairston and Gbinihie can give them quality minutes, but I probably takes away any chance Duke has to win the tournament. So with UNC not caring about the tournament, and Duke being down a key player, who can step up and win it? FSU? NC State? I don't see Virginia winning 3 games in 3 days with their lack of depth.

[Greg29fan]

Boy I sure hope UNC doesn't care about the tournament...I'd be upset if they think that way. They have to win it to get a 1 seed - that should be motivation in and of itself.

But FSU can definitely win the tournament, no matter if everybody was healthy or caring.

Edited by Greg29fan, 06 March 2012 - 06:08 PM.

[Drocca]

Roy Williams called it a cocktail party and was dismissive of the tournament the first year he was here. He cares about winning the tournament. He likes the tournament. He has explained this over and over through the years. Him admitting that he would rather win the NCAA tournament is not shocking.

[lars10]

Is today's game going to be streamed anywhere?

[tims4wins]

Is today's game going to be streamed anywhere?

ESPN3 if you get it

Edit: All of the big 6 conference tourney games are streamed on ESPN3, I think

Edited by tims4wins, 09 March 2012 - 11:28 AM.

[Greg29fan]

We're fucked pretty bad if Henson's wrist is broken

[Saturnian]

Following on the radio, they mentioned that Erin Andrews said that UNC was "not willing to release the results of the X-ray until after the game". They just said Henson is back on the bench without any tape on his wrist. Am I correctly remembering that it is school policy to not discuss injuries/x-rays during a game? Or is that just wishful misremembering?

[Greg29fan]

they said on the ACC Network that it's not broken.

[tims4wins]

Yeah, xrays were negative, but he was uncomfortable gripping the ball, I would think Roy will sit him out and not risk further injury

[tims4wins]

FWIW, I think Duke is in for a war tonight with Virginia Tech

[SkyHawk92]

So with Kansas and Syracuse both losing, if UNC and Duke win tomorrow, what are the chances both get a #1 seed?

[tims4wins]

FWIW, I think Duke is in for a war tonight with Virginia Tech

Definitely an ugly win. I never want to see Tyler Thornton lead the team in field goal attempts again. They need more from Dawkins, he needs to knock down his open 3s, can't just disappear with these 0-5 performances.

So with Kansas and Syracuse both losing, if UNC and Duke win tomorrow, what are the chances both get a #1 seed?

Syracuse has the #2 overall seed locked up. I highly doubt both Duke and UNC can squeeze their way into a #1 - IMO, the winner of the ACC tournament will get a 1 (if it is Duke or UNC), and if MSU wins the Big 10 tournament, they'll get a 1. If MSU loses, then Ohio State, Kansas, and Missouri will all have a shot at a one seed. Still so many permutations. We'll know more by the end of today. I don't see Duke beating FSU, and UNC could have a tough go if Hensen is out. If both lose, then I think Kansas locks up a one, and the Big 10 tournament champ probably grabs the other.

[Greg29fan]

Henson is out today. Gonna need McAdoo to step up.

[Greg29fan]

It would be nice if Harrison decided he might want to play a bit in the 2nd half

[BigSoxFan]

Umm...block or a charge, refs. Sorry FSU, you're next.

[Greg29fan]

LOL BOO HOO NC State

[JShams]

LOL BOO HOO NC State

Seconded.

[riboflav]

Those officials really should be ashamed of themselves.

[riboflav]

I don't think Digger understands the rule

[DukeSox]

man, State really played the last minute like a bunch of chumps.

[Dan Murfman]

I don't think Digger understands the rule

He was on an angle. He was on an angle.

[Greg29fan]

yup, how about not just dropping the ball out of bounds?

and on Kendall's shot - that was a block all day - HE should have been shooting a free throw too.

Edited by Greg29fan, 10 March 2012 - 03:17 PM.

[riboflav]

yup, how about not just dropping the ball out of bounds?

and on Kendall's shot - that was a block all day - HE should have been shooting a free throw too.

How was that a block? Your feet can be moving and Marshall clearly tried to turn the corner against an established defender. It's how I teach my kids defense all the time. Great defense and could not have played it better.