Michigan State is #2 and Duke is #3 in the latest RPI. The resumes are nearly identical so you may have a point with Duke having head-to-head wins on neutral floors. In my opinion, Duke is not going to win the ACC Tournament while one of MSU/OSU will win the Big 10 and one of KU/MU will win the Big 12. That will sway the committee enough to put Duke on the 2 seed line as the #5 overall seed. If they do get that, it really won't matter if they are a 1 or a 2 since they will be playing the same team in the Elite Eight(if they get that far)regardless. The only thing that the 1 seed has an advantage in that situation is they are wearing white.
Agree with everything you wrote, except this. Duke is 33-3 in the ACC tournament since 1999. Even in years when UNC has won the National Championship (2005, 2009), Duke has won the ACC tournament. It's kind of foolish to bet against Duke in that tournament.
Edit: also, Duke is still #2 in RPI according to this
Double edit: FWIW, Lunardi has this to say about the situation:
Essentially three "playoffs" are occurring, within the Big 12 (Kansas vs. Missouri), Big Ten (Michigan State vs. Ohio State) and ACC (Duke vs. North Carolina). If any of these six teams win both the outright regular-season and conference tournament titles, they should be the remaining No. 1 seeds.
• In the unlikely event of three double-double champions, I would rank the six possibilities in this order (for seeding purposes): Duke, Michigan State, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio State.
The reason for Duke and Michigan State leading the list is the ability of each to go 3-0 against their respective conference rival. The Blue Devils get the final nod over State on account of their neutral-court victory against the Spartans. The Devils do not get the nod over Sparty today because they do not have an outright lead in their conference.
Edited by tims4wins, 24 February 2012 - 04:06 PM.