2010- 307/356/495/851, 19 HR, 47 SB
3 yr offensive numbers 297/349/454/803 17 HR/162 games, w/ 52 SB/162 games,
3 yr Aggregate Defensive Runs per FG of 15.6 avg
3 yr WAR (FG) 5.0 avg (6.9 in 2010)
3 yr WARP - 4.7 avg (6.4 in 2010)
Here are what the experts are projecting for 2011:
Bill James, 311/360/472/832 14 HR, 42 SB
Marcels, 292/345/446/791, 14 HR, 40 SB
Pecota, 290/341/444/785, 16 HR, 44 SB
Fans88 307/360/476/836, 17 HR, 49 SB
Zips 312/359/491/850, 15 HR, 44 SB
Fans 88 WAR -5.6 (FG)
Pecotas WARP - 3.3
Pecota and Marcels projections have me scratching my head, but here are CC's hit charts from 2010 which seem to suggest Fenway may not be kind to him unless he changes his approach.
Fenway is probably not the best place to improve on his defensive stats although he may get more assists. His power seems more to RF/CF which could hurt his HR production, but this may be offset by more triples. Fenway may also take away a few singles as LF'ers can play in and get to some of his LD singles. This may be offset by more singles going for doubles. The turf in Tropicana may have got him a few more GB singles than he will get at Fenway.
One other piece of information is that I heard the Rays announcers saying they were very surprised to see how much weight/muscle Crawford had gained in the offseason. They thought this might help his power numbers, but wondered how it would impact his running game. Not sure how much weight he had gained but I had not heard anybody else comment on this, but one would have to imagine the Rays announcers are better positioned to make such a comparison. That said, he still looks fast to me and I have seen no evidence of an increase in power, but it's only ST.
My own expectations are that he should match or exceed his production from 2010 since the better lineup and hitting background in Fenway should help, and he may still be developing/improving. He won't have as big an adjustment like JD had in 2007 or like A-Gon will have this year since he is already familiar with the AL and AL East pitchers. He may have an issue with the fish bowl atmosphere in Boston, especially if he gets off to a slow start, but he should be able to get past that.
What say ye?.
Edited by Sampo Gida, 26 March 2011 - 01:05 AM.