380 replies to this topic

[alskor]

Bruce Seid has a relationship with the Beede's, and slot at 15 is $1.5M. I haven't heard anything on how much he's asking for, but the connection, being drafted well ahead of projected, and ~$2M should get it done, especially considering that by the next time he's eligible for the draft, there will be mandatory hard slotting.

I wasn't aware of the Seid connection. That's a protected pick (comp for not signing Covey), so they'd better be damn sure they have him signed. It would be pretty surprising to see them take a player with so much leverage there. Beede has almost as much leverage as any player in this draft. The impression I've got talking to people is that Tyler is more than happy to go to college & its going to cost more than $2m, but it could all be just their speculation for all I know. Lets say he made it to the supplemental round, or 2nd round... lets say #51 (Yankees). He could beat $2m I'd wager. Not sure why a player with that much leverage would agree so easily & quickly.

On Bell... ugh. I really hope its a negotiating ploy. So nice cheering for a team where you hear something like that and think: "Maybe we can get him a round later!"

[TheGoldenGreek33]

jimcallisBA Bad news: Texas A&M RHP John Stilson, likely 1st-rder, has a SLAP tear of labrum & faces surgery. #mlbdraft

Take a flier on him early-ish on day two.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 28 May 2011 - 01:32 PM.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

He could beat $2m I'd wager. Not sure why a player with that much leverage would agree so easily & quickly.

While I agree that it's unlikely the Brewers take such a risk for an unprotected pick, I think you're giving Beede more leverage than he really has. Three years is a long time and next time around there won't be any more over-slot deals. So, while I think he's likely going to be a top five pick in 2014 if he goes to Vandy, the bonus size would only be marginally better than if the Brewers took him at 15 this year.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 28 May 2011 - 01:30 PM.

[Midre Cum Ingz]

Who knows...

Beede may be dead set on going to school.

Does anyone know if Beede's family is rich?

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Mid-upper class. He goes to Lawrence Academy, which is $40-50k/year, but I'm assuming he has some grants/scholarships there because he's a ~3.2 student and is going to Vandy.

[Midre Cum Ingz]

Mid-upper class. He goes to Lawrence Academy, which is $40-50k/year, but I'm assuming he has some grants/scholarships there because he's a ~3.2 student and is going to Vandy.

Damn son. You know your ish.

I think he signs.

Sox, favorite team, and if he enters the draft he should get about the same amount of money but risks injury (although his mechanics are excellent...don't think he'll get hurt...but the risk is always there being a pitcher) and he wouldn't get drafted by the Sox.

[Midre Cum Ingz]

Take a flier on him early-ish on day two.

I'm not touching Stilson until the 8th round at the earliest.

A torn labrum often results in permanent diminished stuff and/or command.

It's about, if not, as bad as it gets.

http://www.slate.com/id/2100895/

Edited by Midre Cum Ingz, 28 May 2011 - 04:04 PM.

[phragle]

I didn't want him, but that is awful for Stilson.

Don't know what to think about Bell, but I doubt Theo was there for nothing.

9 days.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

1S, 40. Kyle Crick, Anthony Meo, or Trevor Story

Epstein was previously spotted by VYPE DFW's David McNabb scouting Sherman right-handed hurler Kyle Crick in a playoff game against Longview Pine Tree.

link

[SMU_Sox]

I don't have anything to add to the analysis of the prospects here but I wanted to thank you, Phragle and TheGoldenGreek33, for your work on this thread. I feel like I at least know a few guys the Sox might draft now. Great job guys and thank you.

[phragle]

@jimcallisBAJim CallisNo. But high price tag may let them wait until comp round. @justenah: Tyler Beede a reach for the #RedSox at 26? #mlbdraft


@jimcallisBAJim CallisSomeone will still offer big money, just not take in 1st rd. @Jaypers413: Odds of a team drafting Bell in the 1st rd anyway? #mlbdraft

Edited by phragle, 29 May 2011 - 11:36 AM.

[phragle]

I don't have anything to add to the analysis of the prospects here but I wanted to thank you, Phragle and TheGoldenGreek33, for your work on this thread. I feel like I at least know a few guys the Sox might draft now. Great job guys and thank you.

No prob, I enjoy it.


Of course the guy I loved a month ago, Josh Osich LHP Oregon St, has raised his stock enough to be a good first round pick. Doubt the Sox take him that early, but with my luck the Rays or Jays will snag him.

Good new is that Bradley Jr might be there at 36 judging by a lot of the mocks.

What do you think about Kyle Crick, Greek? I'm a fan. Also check out Chris Reed (LHP Stanford). He is a hard throwing lefty reliever that I, and some scouts think could be turned into a starter.

A week ago I felt I knew exactly what was going to happen, now I have no idea.

[phragle]

Bauer's numbers are just silly: 12-2 1.27ERA 127.2IP 34BB 189K

[Midre Cum Ingz]

Bauer's numbers are just silly: 12-2 1.27ERA 127.2IP 34BB 189K

What I love about Bauer is that there's a good chance he'll be ready for a 200 inning workload 2 years out of college.

[Midre Cum Ingz]

What I love about Bauer is that there's a good chance he'll be ready for a 200 inning workload 2 years out of college.

I don't think he'll be there but I would really like Adam Conley (LHP - Wazzu) at 81 (round 2).


"Conley moved from Washington State's closer role last year to the Friday night starter this year. He has an aggressive, almost Dontrelle Willis-like delivery. His fastball typically sits in the 88-93 mph range, but he can touch 95 and has been as high as 97 when he was used in relief as a sophomore. His two-seam fastball has heavy sink and his changeup has good fade...With his peerless work ethic and outstanding makeup, Conley has embraced a leadership role this year."


BA then says that his slider isn't very good.


6'3 with a delicious delivery:

[phragle]

Yeah Conley is a favorite of mine at 81 too. BA thinks he'll go 69th. I also like Michael Kelly and Jason Exposito at 81.

[phragle]

Sickles 2nd mock draft
http://www.minorleag...rk-ii#storyjump

[phragle]

What I love about Bauer is that there's a good chance he'll be ready for a 200 inning workload 2 years out of college.

I'm looking forward to watching him in the College World Series

[RedOctober3829]

Barnes vs. Meo on Friday. Should be a great one.

[Midre Cum Ingz]

I'm looking forward to watching him in the College World Series

I hope UCLA gets far enough to be on TV.

[RedOctober3829]

I hope UCLA gets far enough to be on TV.

All Super Regionals will be on the ESPN family of networks. They'll face some resistance from Fresno State, but should get out of their regional.

[Midre Cum Ingz]

All Super Regionals will be on the ESPN family of networks. They'll face some resistance from Fresno State, but should get out of their regional.

Oh kinky. Good to know.

I hope it's ESPN/ESPN 2/ ESPN U and not ESPN3.com or some phony balony/bologna nonsense like thayt!

[phragle]

Callis's supplemental round mock:

http://www.minorleag...plemental-round

He has Bell going 44th

44) Mets (for Pedro Feliciano): Josh Bell, OF, Texas HS: If the Mets are serious about putting more money into the draft, here is their chance. Bell says he won't sign, but if the Mets dangle enough $$ in front of him, plus a nice presentation about how cool it would be to play in New York, that might change. A similar choice would be Pennsylvania HS outfielder Derek Fisher, another strong bat with a college commitment that would be expensive, but perhaps not impossible, to buy off.

Edited by phragle, 30 May 2011 - 09:34 PM.

[phragle]

@SinSityKLRKEITH ROYAL@johnmanuelba @Amir_Garrettthrew for Boston and Seattle today. He faced live batters. Topped out at 94 and was steady at 92 - 93

[TimScribble]

Callis's supplemental round mock:

I think that links to Sickels not Callis. Thanks for the link though, it's good stuff. I'd be surprised if the Mets took him there.

Edited by TimScribble, 31 May 2011 - 07:05 AM.

[phragle]

I think that links to Sickels not Callis. Thanks for the link though, it's good stuff. I'd be surprised if the Mets took him there.

You're right.

[Zincman]

This is certainly not scientific since there is some cherry picking here nor all-inclusive but there may be some inferences to draw....

Since Theo became GM the following has occured

2003
Round Pick Bonus Status
1 David Murphy 1.5m slot
1s Matt Murton 1m slot
2 Abe Alvarez 700k moderately over slot
2 Mickey Hall 800k over slot
4 Jonathan Papelbon 235k slightly over slot
15 Chris Turner 140k over slot
Did not sign
Kala Ka'aihue

2004
Round Pick Bonus Status
No first (Foulke signing)
2 Dustin Pedroia 575k slot
3 Andrew Dobies 400k over slot
8 Kyle Bono 432k over slot
12 Mike Rozier 1.5 mil significantly over slot
Did not sign
Steven Pearce (10)

2005
Round Pick Bonus Status
1 Jacoby Ellsbury 1.5m slot
1 Craig Hansen 1.325m slot
1s Clay Buchholz 800k slot
1s Jed Lowrie 762k slot
1s Michael Bowden 730k slot
Did not sign Pedro Alvarez (14) or Allan Dykstra (34)

2006
Round Pick Bonus Status
1 Jason Place 1.3m slot
1 Daniel Bard 1.5m slightly over slot
1s Kris Johnson 1m slot
1s Caleb Clay 775k slot
2 Justin Masterson 510k slot
9 Ryan Kalsih 600k significantly over slot
18 Lars Anderson 800k significantly over slot
Did not sign Matt LaPorta(14) Brandon Belt(11) or Kyle Snyder (10)

2007
Round Pick Bonus Status
No first Julio Lugo!!!!!!
1s Nick Hagadone 571k slot
1s Ryan Dent 571k slightly over slot
5 Will Middlebrooks 925k significantly over slot
6 Anthony Rizzo 325k over slot
23 Drake Britton 700k significantly over slot
Did not sign Hunter Morris (2)

2008
Round Pick Bonus Status
1 Casey Kelly 3m significantly over slot
1s Bryan Price 849k near slot
2 Derek Gibson 600k near slot
4 Peter Hissey 1m significantly over slot
5 Ryan Westmoreland 2m significantly over slot
Did not sign Alex Meyer (20) or Ricky Orapesa (24)

2009
Round Pick Bonus Status
1 Rey Fuentes 1.13m slot
2 Alex Wilson 470k slot
3 David Renfroe 1.4m significantly over slot
4 Jeremy Hazlebaker 191k near slot
5 Madison Younginer 975k significanly over slot
9 Kendall Volz 500k significantly over slot

2010
Round Pick Bonus Status
1 Kolbrin Vitek 1.359m slot
1s Bryce Brentz 889k slot
1s Anthony Ranaudo 2.55m significanly over slot
2 Brandon Workman 800k slightly over slot
3 Sean Coyle 1.3m significantly over slot
4 Garin Cecchini 1.3m significantly over slot
6 Kendrick Perkins 628k significantly over slot
11 Lucas LeBlanc 500k significanly over slot

With the exceptions of Ranaudo and Kelly, the Red Sox have stuck pretty close to MLB slot recs during the Epstein era. However, they have shown a willingness to pay in later rounds when they judge the value to be commensurate. Does this mean they are not likely to throw a pile of cash at Josh Bell or similarly "unsignable" early rounders? Hard to tell but it does seem unlikely to me. Sorry if this post was too cumbersome but I thopught the history was interesting

[RedOctober3829]

Oh kinky. Good to know.

I hope it's ESPN/ESPN 2/ ESPN U and not ESPN3.com or some phony balony/bologna nonsense like thayt!

It will be all on TV.

[alskor]

@SinSityKLRKEITH ROYAL@johnmanuelba @Amir_Garrettthrew for Boston and Seattle today. He faced live batters. Topped out at 94 and was steady at 92 - 93

That would make a lot of sense. We've been all over the late helium guys the last few years. I'm very intrigued by Garrett.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

What do you think about Kyle Crick, Greek? I'm a fan. Also check out Chris Reed (LHP Stanford). He is a hard throwing lefty reliever that I, and some scouts think could be turned into a starter.

I'm only a fan of Crick if it's not on day one. It's hard not to like the FB/SL combo and the arm action is pretty good, but he's been a thrower up to this point facing HS competition and he doesn't have a feel for an off-speed pitch IMO to warrant a day one selection. When looking at a prep arm, I want to see that he knows more about pitching than just rearing back and blowing fastballs by high school kids. Prep arms that flame out because they don't really know how to pitch or possess a feel for a change-up are a dime a dozen, and I'd hate to see the Sox spend a pick on such a high risk. I have no idea on his signability as a TCU commit, but I'd pop him in the 4th or 5th if he fell that far, which is doubtful.

I would love to see the Sox take Reed at 40. I think he fits the Sox MO pretty well. Not a lot of miles on his arm, three above-average pitches, the arm works well, and he still has room to grow, as a pitcher and with his body type.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

BA's write-up on Garrett is comical:

Garrett has quickly gone from being unknown to being a legitimate prospect in two sports. He didn't start playing organized basketball until his freshman year but jumped onto the varsity from day one. He has grown into a 6-foot-6 wing player with explosive leaping ability and has committed to St. John's. He is also interested in playing baseball.

Well, that's nice. But, it does goes on to say:

He has a throwing program that incorporates yoga, long-toss and resistance training and started throwing bullpens and stretching his arm out. In early May, he threw for a group of scouts in Las Vegas and sat 90-94 mph while touching 96. He also flashed a change-up with life in the lower 80s and has shown flashes of a usable curveball.

I'm intrigued. Sign him up.

Has anyone seen his mix tapes on youtube? Kid can ball.

edit: #68 on Rivals Top 150 in basketball, committed to St. John's. His asking price has to be outrageous.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 31 May 2011 - 02:08 PM.

[phragle]

That would make a lot of sense. We've been all over the late helium guys the last few years. I'm very intrigued by Garrett.

That is good to know, but he sounds like a serious idiot on twitter and never mentions training. Makes me wonder how serious he is. Maybe I'm wrong, but I bet Dylan Bundy's twitter wouldn't look like that.

I'm only a fan of Crick if it's not on day one.

Then I have bad news.

I would love to see the Sox take Reed at 40. I think he fits the Sox MO pretty well. Not a lot of miles on his arm, three above-average pitches, the arm works well, and he still has room to grow, as a pitcher and with his body type.

Oh absolutely! He is my favorite player that I'm pretty sure will be there at 40.

Edited by phragle, 31 May 2011 - 02:40 PM.

[phragle]

Perfect Games Best Tools
http://www.perfectga...px?article=5763

Don't take it too seriously. I mean Jed Bradley best slider? Not even imaginable.

Edited by phragle, 31 May 2011 - 03:16 PM.

[TimScribble]

So I feel like I have seen Hedges name being thrown around a lot attached to the Sox. From everything I've read, everyone loves his defense. I havent read much of anything about this bat. Can any of the resident users (Phrag, GG33, etc) comment on his bat?

[phragle]

I'm not the best on swing mechanics, but it looks short and smooth.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

To be quite honest, that swing is brutal. It's just all over the place. His defense must just be otherworldly for him to be garnering day one attention.

His weight is all out front. His bat drag is practically non-existent. He throws his hands at the ball. He has the same bat tilt on every swing. His hips rotate along with his hands instead of before. He frequently extends his arms before the ball arrives instead of allowing it to travel and then snaps his wrists at the point of contact. Basically, all of his power that he does have come from his hands and wrists.

I'm actually shocked he hit a measly .366 with four home runs this spring. Buyer beware.

Whew.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

So far the Sox have been publicly linked to:

Amir Garrett -- threw in front of Sox brass
Josh Bell -- personally scouted by Theo
Shon Carson -- has worked out in front of the Sox
Kyle Crick -- personally scouted by Theo
Matt Barnes -- personally scouted by Theo
Williams Jerez -- Sawdaye was at the NYC showcase and Jerez was the highest profile HS kid there
Tyler Beede -- according to Callis
Joe Ross -- according to Callis
Johnny Eierman -- scouts have been at his games
Tyler Marlette -- according to Heyman

That is an absurd amount of high school kids. IMO, they either take Bell or Beede, but not both unless one falls far enough.

Any other names you guys have heard? Susac/Swihart/Hedges obviously, but those are sloppy and unfounded assumptions.

Note: the Sox have obviously scouted a lot more than just these guys, but within the past three or four years, there's been a steady correlation between guys linked to the Sox and who the Sox have actually taken.

[alskor]

To be quite honest, that swing is brutal. It's just all over the place. His defense must just be otherworldly for him to be garnering day one attention.

His weight is all out front. His bat drag is practically non-existent. He throws his hands at the ball. He has the same bat tilt on every swing. His hips rotate along with his hands instead of before. He frequently extends his arms before the ball arrives instead of allowing it to travel and then snaps his wrists at the point of contact. Basically, all of his power that he does have come from his hands and wrists.

I'm actually shocked he hit a measly .366 with four home runs this spring. Buyer beware.

Whew.

Agree with most of this and I would also question the bat speed a little based on what I've seen - have not seen him in person. I did see an extended video of his defense and he looked ridiculous. Extremely quick and agile behind the plate.

All the same, I wouldn't mind taking a shot on him in the supplemental and hoping we can teach him to hit a bit. With that defense all you need is for him to have some capability offensively... I think he can reach that point.

So far the Sox have been publicly linked to:

[snip]

Tyler Beede -- according to Callis

[snip]

That is an absurd amount of high school kids. IMO, they either take Bell or Beede, but not both unless one falls far enough.

Any other names you guys have heard? Susac/Swihart/Hedges obviously, but those are sloppy and unfounded assumptions.

Note: the Sox have obviously scouted a lot more than just these guys, but within the past three or four years, there's been a steady correlation between guys linked to the Sox and who the Sox have actually taken.

There were a number of Sox people at the Beede game, fwiw... but since he's so local we may not want to put too much emphasis on that.

[Joshv02]

Beede worked out at Fenway, according to an interview of his on SP.com.

[phragle]

Any other names you guys have heard?

Should probably throw Springer in there too.

[phragle]

Joe LeCates (Easton, MD): Jim, thank you for the chat today. Any further updates on the Josh Bell story that broke last week regarding him telling the Scouting Bureau he didn't want to be drafted? Are teams taking it as legitimate, or more as Boras pre-draft leverage tactic?
Jim Callis: I think it's sincere. He's a good student, his mother is a professor at Texas-Arlington and he was considered very heavily committed to Texas before the letter came out. At the same time, there's no realize he couldn't parlay his leverage into a lucrative payday if that situation presents himself. I don't know if he'll go in the first round, but he'll definitely be offered first-round money by someone.

Wessel (The Netherlands): Better overall player: Blake Swihart or Austin Hedges?
Jim Callis: Swihart. Hedges is a tremendous defender but there are a lot of questions about his bat. Swihart is new to catching, but he's a switch-hitter with power and has the athleticism as well to be a difference-maker at another position.

Tom (Toronto): Last year the blue jays flaoted around spending big money on the draft, any news of that kind this year?
Jim Callis: They're expected to spend heavily again in 2011

Jim (CT): What are you hearing with regards to Austin Hedges' bat?
Jim Callis: Mixed opinions. Everyone loves the defense, some guys think the bat will be fine and others don't like it at all.

Stefanie (Austin, TX): Swihart is in Austin today for a U of Texas baseball practice and to visit the school. Anything to read into that? Thanks.
Jim Callis: No. Could mean he's strongly committed to Texas and dead-set on going there, could be a cynical ploy that will be used as leverage. Means nothing.

(free) http://www.baseballa...11/2611857.html

Edited by phragle, 01 June 2011 - 04:03 PM.

[SoxScout]

Locally, regional scouts for the Sox have been seen at every one of the starts by Lawerence Academy right-hander Tyler Beede, a projected late-first-rounder who is listed as high as 24th on some scouting services’ big boards.

http://espn.go.com/b...ext-weeks-draft

[TheGoldenGreek33]

I think this rules out the Sox taking a catcher on day one:

"College players take three to four years to develop, high school players four to five. By then, who knows what our (positional) needs will be?'' Epstein said.

link

[TheGoldenGreek33]

"There might be a day we wake up and we're talking fondly about bygone days when we had four of the first 40 picks in the draft and no team will ever have that again," Epstein said. "Who knows what the next system will be. We have to take advantage of this one."

link

4 days.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 02 June 2011 - 03:52 AM.

[phragle]

I think this rules out the Sox taking a catcher on day one:


link

I wouldn't say it rules it out. I think he is just saying he is going to take the BPA.

Speaking of BPA, here are Sickels top 102 based on personal preference.
http://www.minorleag...ent-draft-board

[TimScribble]

I start a new position at work next week, which means I will be in training all week. I'm going to miss out on the day drafts unless I can break away. And based off Theo's comments, it could be a record setting draft for the Sox.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Frankie P's mock is up. Has the Sox taking Swihart at 19 and Nimmo at 26:

Recently sources have had the Red Sox all over Nimmo. Surprisingly he is finding a number of takers for his supposed high price tag, with Boston leading that charge.

link

That makes a ton of sense. I had thought he'd be a prototypical Sox draftee before, but didn't consider it at 26. I could definitely see them taking him there and I would be ecstatic.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 02 June 2011 - 02:16 PM.

[hescores21]

So far the Sox have been publicly linked to:

Amir Garrett -- threw in front of Sox brass
Josh Bell -- personally scouted by Theo
Shon Carson -- has worked out in front of the Sox
Kyle Crick -- personally scouted by Theo
Matt Barnes -- personally scouted by Theo
Williams Jerez -- Sawdaye was at the NYC showcase and Jerez was the highest profile HS kid there
Tyler Beede -- according to Callis
Joe Ross -- according to Callis
Johnny Eierman -- scouts have been at his games
Tyler Marlette -- according to Heyman

That is an absurd amount of high school kids. IMO, they either take Bell or Beede, but not both unless one falls far enough.

Any other names you guys have heard? Susac/Swihart/Hedges obviously, but those are sloppy and unfounded assumptions.

Note: the Sox have obviously scouted a lot more than just these guys, but within the past three or four years, there's been a steady correlation between guys linked to the Sox and who the Sox have actually taken.

Jake Hager, a ss from here in Las Vegas is someone the Sox have met with on more than a few occasions this year. I have seen him ranked as high as a supplemental round pick and as low as a third round pick. Sickels has him listed at 59 but calls him Jason Hager. Great humble kid who is grounded with a committment to ASU although he won't be attending unless he drops way down the draft. I think Law projects him as a 3B at the pro level.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Thanks. His profile sounds a little bit like Sean Coyle/Garin Cecchini. Polished, fundamentally strong, yet no standout tool. Just an all-around good baseball player.

[Midre Cum Ingz]

Nimmo reminds me of Cecchini in RF.

Would love if we took him.