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Red Sox 2011 Amateur Draft


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#1 The Boomer

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Posted 17 March 2011 - 07:09 AM

It's early but the prospect here in Charlottesville, UVA's ace Danny Hultzen, recently ranked #17 by Baseball America who easily could have slipped to the Sox at #19 has probably vaulted himself into a top 10 (maybe top 5) draft target this coming June. He is also a great hitting and defensive firstbaseman when not pitching on Friday nights. Check this out:

http://www2.cavalier...tzen-ar-911036/

His upside might be in Jon Lester/Cliff Lee territory. Unless Hultzen's other wordly pitching at the college level isn't translating to moving up everyone's draft boards, he looks to be a steal if he is still there for the Sox at #19.

#2 TimScribble

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Posted 17 March 2011 - 09:26 AM

With his size, and being a lefty, I'd be surprised if Hultzen makes it to the Red Sox at 19.

Just for everyone to see, here is the draft order for the first round + supplemental. (courtesty of MLBBonusbaby)

First Round
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Kansas City Royals
6. Washington Nationals
7. Arizona Diamondbacks (for unsigned 2010 first-round pick Barret Loux)
8. Cleveland Indians
9. Chicago Cubs
10. San Diego Padres (for unsigned 2010 first-round pick Karsten Whitson)
11. Houston Astros
12. Milwaukee Brewers
13. New York Mets
14. Florida Marlins
15. Milwaukee Brewers (for unsigned 2010 first-round pick Dylan Covey)
16. Los Angeles Dodgers
17. Los Angeles Angels
18. Oakland Athletics
19. Boston Red Sox (from the Tigers for type A free agent Victor Martinez)
20. Colorado Rockies
21. Toronto Blue Jays
22. St. Louis Cardinals
23. Washington Nationals (from the White Sox for type A free agent Adam Dunn)
24. Tampa Bay Rays (from the Red Sox for type A free agent Carl Crawford)
25. San Diego Padres
26. Boston Red Sox (from the Rangers for type A free agent Adrian Beltre)
27. Cincinnati Reds
28. Atlanta Braves
29. San Francisco Giants
30. Minnesota Twins
31. Tampa Bay Rays (from the Yankees for type A free agent Rafael Soriano)
32. Tampa Bay Rays
33. Texas Rangers (from the Phillies for type A free agent Cliff Lee)

Supplemental First Round
34. Washington Nationals (Dunn)
35. Toronto Blue Jays (for type A free agent Scott Downs)
36. Boston Red Sox (Martinez)
37. Texas Rangers (Lee)
38. Tampa Bay Rays (Soriano)
39. Philadelphia Phillies (for type A free agent Jayson Werth)
40. Boston Red Sox (Beltre)
41. Tampa Bay Rays (Crawford)
42. Tampa Bay Rays (for type A free agent Grant Balfour)
43. Arizona Diamondbacks (for type B free agent Adam LaRoche)
44. New York Mets (for type B free agent Pedro Feliciano)
45. Colorado Rockies (for type B free agent Octavio Dotel)
46. Toronto Blue Jays (for type B free agent Kevin Gregg)
47. Chicago White Sox (for type B free agent J.J. Putz)
48. San Diego Padres (for type B free agent Jon Garland)
49. San Francisco Giants (for type B free agent Juan Uribe)
50. Minnesota Twins (for type B free agent Orlando Hudson)
51. New York Yankees (for type B free agent Javier Vazquez)
52. Tampa Bay Rays (for type B free agent Brad Hawpe)
53. Toronto Blue Jays (for type B free agent John Buck)
54. San Diego Padres (for type B free agent Yorvit Torrealba)
55. Minnesota Twins (for type B free agent Jesse Crain)
56. Tampa Bay Rays (for type B free agent Joaquin Benoit)
57. Toronto Blue Jays (for type B free agent Miguel Olivo)
58. San Diego Padres (for type B free agent Kevin Correia)
59. Tampa Bay Rays (for type B free agent Randy Choate)
60. Tampa Bay Rays (for type B free agent Chad Qualls)

What's crazy, is that the Rays have 10 of the first 60 picks.

I think we can probably work in order from the top and identify some players that will definitely be off the board by the time the Sox pick. This should give us a better feel of who will be available at 19. I think it's safe to say these players will be picked by 19, in no certain order:

Anthony Rendon - Rice 3B
Gerrit Cole - UCLA RHP
Matthew Purke - TCU LHP
Taylor Jungmann - Texas RHP
Sonny Gray - Vandy RHP
George Springer - UCONN OF
Matt Barnes - UCONN RHP
Jackie Bradley - South Carolina OF
Bubba Starling - Gardner-Edgerton HS OF
Archie Bradley - Muskogee HS RHP
Dylan Bundy - Owasso HS RHP
Francisco Lindor - Montverde Academy SS

Of course, you never know based off of agents, demands and injuries. If Hultzen gets to 19, I could see the Sox taking him. Some of my guesses for the Sox at 19 are:

Blake Swihart - Cleveland HS - C
Nick Delmonico - Farragut HS - SS/C
Jack Armstrong - Vanderbilt - RHP
Andrew Susac - Oregon State - C
Jason Esposito - Vanderbilt - 3B
Daniel Norris - Johnson City SChool HS - LHP
Trevor Bauer - UCLA - RHP

#3 RedOctober3829


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Posted 17 March 2011 - 09:51 AM

Ultimately, he's a great talent but I'd stay away from Bauer. Look at his pitch counts from this early in the season. They are way too high for the first couple of starts in the season and I think his coach is using him and Gerrit Cole as much as he can without much regard for their arms.

Bauer: 118, 109, 123

Edited by RedOctober3829, 17 March 2011 - 09:52 AM.


#4 The Boomer

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Posted 17 March 2011 - 01:11 PM

Here is more detail courtesy of Baseball America:

• Virginia Jr. LHP/DH Danny Hultzen (6.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 14 K) continued his utterly dominant start to the season in a 5-0 win at No. 10 Clemson. Hultzen also led the offense with two RBIs. On the season, he's 4-0, 0.66 with 50 strikeouts and four walks in 27 innings, and he's hitting .368/.447/.526 with a team-leading 15 RBIs. If the season ended today, he might be the front-runner for College Player of the Year honors.

#5 TheGoldenGreek33

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Posted 17 March 2011 - 01:49 PM

Unless Hultzen's other wordly pitching at the college level isn't translating to moving up everyone's draft boards, he looks to be a steal if he is still there for the Sox at #19.

Yeah, I think there's a zero percent chance of that happening right now. He's probably considered the safest bet in the draft and if memory serves, he's not a Boras advisee.




#6 gammoseditor


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Posted 17 March 2011 - 02:51 PM

I think it's a little early to be listing 12 guys who probably won't be available at 19. Jackie Bradley is a guy I have my eye one. Really seems like the Red Sox kind of player. I'd be pretty happy if he made it to us and don't think it's a 0 percent chance.

#7 tmorgan

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Posted 17 March 2011 - 03:35 PM

I think it's a little early to be listing 12 guys who probably won't be available at 19. Jackie Bradley is a guy I have my eye one. Really seems like the Red Sox kind of player. I'd be pretty happy if he made it to us and don't think it's a 0 percent chance.


It also seems to be a very good year for the Sox to be picking in the teens with the Mets and Dodgers in financial problems and picking 13 and 16 and it will be interesting to see what happens to the Brewers two picks since they spent nothing on the draft last year and had the Dylan Covey situation. It seems like there is a great opportunity for big bonus demands to let a really good prospect fall to the Sox.

#8 SaveBooFerriss


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Posted 17 March 2011 - 03:47 PM

I think it's a little early to be listing 12 guys who probably won't be available at 19. Jackie Bradley is a guy I have my eye one. Really seems like the Red Sox kind of player. I'd be pretty happy if he made it to us and don't think it's a 0 percent chance.


An example of the power of randomnes, 3 players in the top 20 have the last name Bradley.

#9 ehaz

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Posted 17 March 2011 - 04:21 PM

edit

Edited by ehaz, 17 March 2011 - 04:22 PM.


#10 gammoseditor


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Posted 17 March 2011 - 05:05 PM

It also seems to be a very good year for the Sox to be picking in the teens with the Mets and Dodgers in financial problems and picking 13 and 16 and it will be interesting to see what happens to the Brewers two picks since they spent nothing on the draft last year and had the Dylan Covey situation. It seems like there is a great opportunity for big bonus demands to let a really good prospect fall to the Sox.


Not to mention the Diamondbacks, Padres, and as you mentioned the Brewers having compensation picks that they would get no compensation for the next year if they don't sign who they pick. With the Dodgers they were rumors they'd go cheap last year and they spent pretty big to land Zach Lee. So I wouldn't assume they'll go cheap again.

#11 templeUsox


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Posted 18 March 2011 - 07:45 AM

My speculation only, but there is no way Hultzen drops below San Diego's compensation pick at 9. It's not a protected pick and I imagine Josh Byrnes loves him. They share the same high school alma mater and Byrnes has already drafted once in 2008 when he was GM of the D'Backs.

#12 TimScribble

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Posted 21 March 2011 - 09:40 AM

Keith Law is saying that the D'backs are loving Hultzen. They pick 3rd and 7th. Twitter

#13 alskor

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Posted 21 March 2011 - 10:20 AM

I'd be surprised if Hultzen made it that far, as many have noted. I was big on him last year, but there seemed to be a feeling entering this college season that he was more comparable to a Deck McGuire type... that there wasn't really great upside there. That's kind of been debunked in 2011 to some degree. I'm finally going to get to see Hultzen pitch the end of April.

One guy who should be available at #19 is local product Anthony Meo (RHP). He's from Cranston, RI and pitches for Coastal Carolina as their Friday Night Starter. KLaw just wrote him up the other day (subscription required): http://insider.espn....raft&id=6236007

Still very early obviously, but Meo right now is pegged for that area of the draft (maybe a little later). He's not a prototypical Sox 1st rounder (College arm, possible RP if his third pitch and command don't improve, sore arm last year... wait, that actually sounds like Ranaudo!) but he should be very signable for us there.

Edited by alskor, 21 March 2011 - 10:22 AM.


#14 RedOctober3829


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Posted 21 March 2011 - 11:24 AM

I'd be surprised if Hultzen made it that far, as many have noted. I was big on him last year, but there seemed to be a feeling entering this college season that he was more comparable to a Deck McGuire type... that there wasn't really great upside there. That's kind of been debunked in 2011 to some degree. I'm finally going to get to see Hultzen pitch the end of April.

One guy who should be available at #19 is local product Anthony Meo (RHP). He's from Cranston, RI and pitches for Coastal Carolina as their Friday Night Starter. KLaw just wrote him up the other day (subscription required): http://insider.espn....raft&id=6236007

Still very early obviously, but Meo right now is pegged for that area of the draft (maybe a little later). He's not a prototypical Sox 1st rounder (College arm, possible RP if his third pitch and command don't improve, sore arm last year... wait, that actually sounds like Ranaudo!) but he should be very signable for us there.

I saw him pitch against my team last year in the NCAA Regionals. He has great stuff. Loved his curveball and other off-speed pitches. He's struggling a bit this year as is his team. 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA in 30 innings. He does have 31 K's, but has given up 14 ER and has walked 14.

The pitcher to watch on Coastal for next year's draft is P/3B Josh Conway. He is 4-0 with a 0.74 ERA(2 ER in 24.1 IP with a 29/6 K/BB)

Edited by RedOctober3829, 21 March 2011 - 11:34 AM.


#15 templeUsox


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Posted 21 March 2011 - 03:50 PM

I wrote the first part of my draft preview for SoxProspects.com, if anyone is interested:

Link

#16 TheGoldenGreek33

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Posted 21 March 2011 - 06:27 PM

Ian, what do you think about Goodwin? I got the chance to see him a couple times in Florida over break and came away really intrigued by his athleticism, approach and all-around skill set. Do you see him as a potential fit at 19 or 26?

edit: thanks for the response. I'd also love to hear your take on why it was just a coincidence that Strasburg went down with TJ if you've got time.... $20....

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 23 March 2011 - 10:33 AM.


#17 Phragle


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Posted 12 April 2011 - 02:39 PM

Strasburg was a sure thing for TJ, I was saying all along.

Anyway, is the bonus baby dead? I Love Archie Bradley. He is my second favorite pitcher in the draft just behind Cole (who is going first) and easily ahead of my third favorite, Norris.

#18 Phragle


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Posted 12 April 2011 - 02:40 PM

And who the hell is Goodwin?

#19 amfox1

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Posted 12 April 2011 - 02:51 PM

And who the hell is Goodwin?


http://www.miamihera...-among-top.html

Center fielder Brian Goodwin is proof that not all of the top prospects are in Division I.

The Miami Dade College sophomore was formerly at the University of North Carolina but transferred after he was suspended for violating team rules, according to a report in Baseball America.

A lefty hitter, Goodwin was ranked the sixth-best prospect in the elite Cape Cod league last summer, and Baseball America called him the nation’s top junior-college player.

So far this season, he is among the state’s top 10 in hitting (.389) and homers (7). The Rocky Mount, N.C., native was a 17th-round pick in 2009 by the White Sox.



#20 Phragle


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Posted 12 April 2011 - 03:24 PM

Thanks Amfox, but the bonus baby is probably dead right?

#21 ehaz

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Posted 12 April 2011 - 04:50 PM

Andrew Susac, the consensus top college catcher from Oregon State is likely out for the rest of the regular season. He was projected to go in the first round.

Here's Law's scouting report on him:

Susac is a good catch-and-throw guy who has cleaned up his swing significantly since high school, losing the hitch he showed as a teenager, replacing it with an innocuous stir instead. He's very strong and gets power more from his upper half, with slightly late hip rotation, and has good hand acceleration to turn on an above-average fastball. I've thought of him in the past as having power but with questions on the hit tool; this cleaned-up swing looks like it'll produce more contact than I expected.


And area-scout quote from a more recent KLaw post:

"He's the best player I have seen this year," an area scout commented. "I have to look awfully far in to see something I don't love. (He's a) very solid defender with plus physical attributes and he's really shown he can hit, too."


Seeing as how #1 college catchers usually don't fall to the Red Sox' pick on draft day, Susac could be a possibility now given the injury.

Edited by ehaz, 12 April 2011 - 04:57 PM.


#22 Phragle


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Posted 13 April 2011 - 02:29 PM

So anybody know if there will be bonus babies this year?

EDIT: Answer: Yes, until the CBA expires after the season.

Edited by phragle, 17 April 2011 - 04:24 PM.


#23 Phragle


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Posted 14 April 2011 - 03:33 AM

BA's Mid-Season Top 50

http://www.baseballa...11/2611568.html

Edited by phragle, 14 April 2011 - 03:34 AM.


#24 Phragle


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Posted 17 April 2011 - 07:01 PM

Danny Hultzen (Virginia) isn't falling to the Sox, but the dude is pitching like vintage Pedro, 1.16 ERA, 54.1IP, 97K, and only 9BB

The other guy pitching like Pedro could fall to the Sox, Trevor Bauer (UCLA), 1.53, 64.2IP, 105K and only 20BB. There are alot of knocks on Bauer, the know everything attitude, the pitch count, and the unconventional delivery that is often compared to Tim Lincecum's. I don't think his delivery is that close to Lincecum's, though it is unconventional. Either way the kid is an expert in the science and theories of pitching, a perfectionist, and everything he does he does for a reason. You can't argue with the results, He lead the league in strikeouts last year and is leading this year too. He throws 5 pitches and they are all plus or plus potential, 90-93 MPH fastball that can reach 96, curveball, change-up, slider, and sinker. The more I read about him the more I like, the way he thinks, trains, and practices. Here are some good articles:
http://articles.lati...-bauer-20110218
http://www.baseballa...11/2611225.html


I'm not happy Matt Purke is falling down the draft. Why? I have never been a fan of his mechanics or his low arm angle. I was hoping he would be taken before 19, but there is still hope.
http://4.bp.blogspot...ffiliate.58.jpg
http://farm5.static...._440a7e86dd.jpg

Edited by phragle, 17 April 2011 - 07:13 PM.


#25 ehaz

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Posted 17 April 2011 - 07:50 PM

Bauer is very interesting. The pitch counts scare me but he's been nothing short of amazing the past three years. We're talking about someone who's been out pitching his teammate, Cole, the supposed number 1 overall pick. If he drops to 19 overall its a risk worth taking.

#26 RedOctober3829


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Posted 19 April 2011 - 10:11 PM

KendallRogersPG
BREAKING: #TCU P Matt Purke out indefinitely w/ soreness in left shoulder. Seeing Dr. James Andrews Wed



#27 Phragle


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Posted 19 April 2011 - 11:06 PM

Called it. Might not be something serious though. I wonder if any teams will think he is the next Ranaudo, he isn't.

#28 Phragle


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Posted 23 April 2011 - 02:10 PM

Danny Hultzen pitching on NESN right now.

#29 TheGoldenGreek33

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Posted 23 April 2011 - 03:43 PM

Daniel Norris is a kid I would like to see fall to the Sox at 19. He came into the year as the top prep arm but has been a bit inconsistent this spring with his command and is now seen as a mid-1st round guy. 6-foot-3 lefty with two plus pitches in a 92-96 mph FB and a 74-76 spike CB. He also mixes in a 79-81 mph CU with that runs away from righties and he keeps it down pretty well. Committed to Clemson, has an outstanding track record of success at high levels of competition while playing for the East Cobb Yanks. He also used to be a pretty good quarterback too before he decided to give it up to concentrate on baseball, so the athleticism is definitely there. He's no lock to be there at 19, but I'd love to see this arm in our system.

edit: because let's face it. We can pray all we want, but Hultzen and Bauer aren't going to be there at 19. Let's talk about guys outside of the top fifteen...

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 23 April 2011 - 04:06 PM.


#30 Phragle


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Posted 23 April 2011 - 07:35 PM

Daniel Norris is a kid I would like to see fall to the Sox at 19. He came into the year as the top prep arm but has been a bit inconsistent this spring with his command and is now seen as a mid-1st round guy. 6-foot-3 lefty with two plus pitches in a 92-96 mph FB and a 74-76 spike CB. He also mixes in a 79-81 mph CU with that runs away from righties and he keeps it down pretty well. Committed to Clemson, has an outstanding track record of success at high levels of competition while playing for the East Cobb Yanks. He also used to be a pretty good quarterback too before he decided to give it up to concentrate on baseball, so the athleticism is definitely there. He's no lock to be there at 19, but I'd love to see this arm in our system.

edit: because let's face it. We can pray all we want, but Hultzen and Bauer aren't going to be there at 19. Let's talk about guys outside of the top fifteen...


Nobody said Hultzen would fall to us. Actually, I said he wouldn't. I've been talking about him because of how well he is doing and how he is somehow still underrated, probably because he doesn't throw heat. He deserves to be a top 3 pick.

Bauer is unlikely to fall to us, but it's very possible. He likely going to ask for more money than most teams would be willing to spend on somebody as risky as him. Risky or not, he is viewed as risky, with his high pitch count, small frame, and unorthodox style.

I think it's helpful to talk about everyone that could potentially be there at 19, which means basically everyone but Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Danny Hultzen, Sonny Gray, Francisco Lindor, Jed Bradley, and Bubba Starling,

A lot of mock drafts have Norris going before Bauer. On top of that I really don't think we will pick a high school pitcher with our first pick. Norris is a great talent, don't get me wrong, but the Sox won't get him. If we do get one of the good high school pitchers I think its going to be Archie Bradley at 26, purely due to signability issues.

#31 Phragle


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Posted 23 April 2011 - 08:25 PM

Andrew Susac, the consensus top college catcher from Oregon State is likely out for the rest of the regular season. He was projected to go in the first round.

Here's Law's scouting report on him:



And area-scout quote from a more recent KLaw post:



Seeing as how #1 college catchers usually don't fall to the Red Sox' pick on draft day, Susac could be a possibility now given the injury.


How far do you think he could fall? Do you think he could fall to 26? I'd love a top of the line catching prospect.

#32 TheGoldenGreek33

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Posted 23 April 2011 - 10:57 PM

A lot of mock drafts have Norris going before Bauer. On top of that I really don't think we will pick a high school pitcher with our first pick. Norris is a great talent, don't get me wrong, but the Sox won't get him. If we do get one of the good high school pitchers I think its going to be Archie Bradley at 26, purely due to signability issues.

A mock at any point outside of the final few days before the draft is silly, for one thing. Secondly, we're talking about a second-year S.D. with an incredibly deep and talented class in front of him in what could be the final year before mandatory slotting comes into effect with a minor league system that currently has one blue chip prospect. Combine this with the fact that the MLB draft is so unpredictable and it's safe to say it's going to be an interesting draft. An important one, as well. Very important.

Every year it's the same thing. "The Sox won't take Player A because they prefer someone like Player B with their first pick". And every year the Sox take someone we haven't even considered or haven't heard linked to them until the night before the draft. The Sox have their philosophy of mixing safe college guys with polished high school kids equally in the early rounds and taking fliers on guys that dropped due to signability with organizational fillers in the late rounds. We can expect the same this year. That much you can bank on.


I was just throwing Norris out there as a guy I personally would like to see us take, not someone I could see the Sox taking. So given the Sox draft philosophy, here are some guys we can presume the Sox are probably going to be in on at 19 and 26.

Taylor Jungmann
Jackie Bradley
Blake Swihart
Mikie Mahtook
Tyler Anderson
Andrew Susac
Kolten Wong
Dillon Howard

This draft is so good that it's going to be impossible to be let down by the Sox day one picks. Man, I'm pumped.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 23 April 2011 - 10:59 PM.


#33 TimScribble

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Posted 25 April 2011 - 08:44 AM

I'd like to see the Sox draft Susac. I think that injury isnt one that is going to hinder his progress. From everything I read, he was playing great before the injury.

#34 TheGoldenGreek33

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Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:36 AM

Re: Susac, from BA's Top 30 CCL Prospects (sub. req'd):

5. Andrew Susac, c, Falmouth (So., Oregon State).

Susac hit just .260 with two homers for Oregon State as a part-time regular in the spring, but he answered any questions about his bat by leading the Cape League with a .500 slugging percentage. Six-foot-1 and 200 pounds, he has good bat speed and big raw power.

A draft-eligible sophomore in 2011, Susac has the tools to stand out behind the plate but must work harder on his defense. He has a strong arm but throws from his knees too often. He struggles to receive good velocity at times, and sometimes seems to lose concentration.

"If he's not a catcher at the major league level, I don't know who is," Falmouth manager Jeff Trundy said. "The kid does too many things well. Physically, he has every attribute a kid needs to make it to the big leagues."


Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 25 April 2011 - 10:36 AM.


#35 TheGoldenGreek33

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Posted 25 April 2011 - 10:51 AM

If we're talking catchers though, I'd prefer Blake Swihart, switch-hitting prepster out of New Mexico. He led the 18U national team in hitting with a 1.337 OPS. Strong frame, excellent bat speed and above-average arm. Swing needs a little work, particularly from the left side as it gets a bit long at times. But, that can be said for just about every prep hitter.



#36 TimScribble

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Posted 25 April 2011 - 11:11 AM

I've heard good things about him also. It's hard to look at a draft and not look at it from a short sighted perspective. The thought, or hope would be that Susac could be ready quickly. But Buster Poseys are kind of once in a lifetime prospects (not implying Susac is Posey, just that catchers dont usually come up that quick.)

I'd be happy with the Sox getting either of the catchers.

Edited by TimScribble, 25 April 2011 - 11:12 AM.


#37 TheGoldenGreek33

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Posted 25 April 2011 - 11:20 AM

Yeah, I didn't want to say it because obviously you want to see them take the best player available, but there is going to be an immediate need at catcher on the major league club very soon so I think the Sox would prefer Susac over Swihart. I'm fine with either pick, as well.

#38 ehaz

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Posted 25 April 2011 - 05:42 PM

How far do you think he could fall? Do you think he could fall to 26? I'd love a top of the line catching prospect.

In mock drafts I've seen him anywhere from 15-25 both before and after the injury. Not that it really means that much in the end. He is however, generally considered a tier below the projected top 10 talents of Starling, Hultzen, Cole, Rendon, Bradley, Gray, Lindor etc.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0bGEeWbTno&feature=related

Edited by ehaz, 25 April 2011 - 05:50 PM.


#39 ehaz

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Posted 25 April 2011 - 06:07 PM

For what it's worth, Baseball America guessing Andrew Susac at number 19 too:

19. RED SOX (John): Boston has two first-round picks, here at 19 and again at 26. The Red Sox were looking greedily at Bell, as they've had some success of late with prep draftees, and are feeling like they got their pocket picked by the Athletics. Still, it's not a total loss, as Boston has its pick of the top remaining college position players. Outfielders Jackie Bradley and Mikie Mahtook are good options, but the Red Sox have outfield depth in their system, neither blows scouts away with their tools and one of them could be available at No. 26. Oregon State catcher Andrew Susac almost assuredly won't be. The top college catcher on the board usually goes well before pick 19, and Susac's broken hamate bone—which ended his season in April—doesn't take the shine off his strong tools or his outstanding 2010 Cape Cod League performance.


and at 26, Derek Fisher.

26. RED SOX (Conor): It might seem like a little bit of a reach, but I'm going with Cedar Crest HS (Lebanon, Pa.) outfielder Derek Fisher. I think Fisher's price tag may be pretty steep, as he has a commitment to Virginia, but Boston won't shy away from an expensive player, especially if he's loaded with tools like Fisher. I did consider prep pitchers like Henry Owens and Dillon Howard (Searcy, Ark., HS) with this pick, but the Red Sox can get comparable players with picks 36 and 40 if they choose. This draft is incredibly deep and there are plenty of big arms available. There are far fewer lefthanded hitters with Fisher's combination of towering power and above-average speed. Boston also will like the fact that he's a Northeast kid who doesn't turn 18 until a week after the signing deadline.



#40 gammoseditor


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Posted 25 April 2011 - 06:13 PM

Yeah, I didn't want to say it because obviously you want to see them take the best player available, but there is going to be an immediate need at catcher on the major league club very soon so I think the Sox would prefer Susac over Swihart. I'm fine with either pick, as well.


I agree with most of what you're saying but I don't think they'd be in a position to be choosing between Susac and Swihart and I think they'd be very happy with either. Of course you never know if there's someone else they love that they're going to take over either. All that being said most sources have Swihart a tier above and is less likely to be there when we pick.

The main reason I wanted to post is that neither go would seem like a need pick to me. Both would be very good value at 19.

#41 Phragle


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Posted 25 April 2011 - 09:17 PM

A mock at any point outside ofthe final few days before the draft is silly, for one thing. Secondly, we're talking about a second-year S.D. with an incredibly deep and talented class infront of him in what could be the final year before mandatory slotting comes into effect with a minor league system that currently has one blue chip prospect. Combine this with the fact that the MLB draft is so unpredictable and it's safe to say it's going to be an interesting draft. An important one, aswell. Very important.



It's no more silly than saying Bauer won't be there, but Norris will. It only takes one team to like a player, thus the nature of the drafts unpredictability. And yes, this draft is insanely important for a plethora of reasons. It's probably the most important draft under Theo so far.

Every year it's the same thing."The Sox won't take Player A because they prefer someone like Player B with their first pick". And every year the Sox take someone we haven't even considered or haven't heard linked to them until the night before the draft. The Sox have their philosophy of mixing safe college guys with polished high school kids equally in the early rounds and taking fliers on guys that dropped due to signability with organizational fillers in the late rounds. We can expect the same this year. That much you can bank on.



So you think this year is different enough that they would draft a prep pitcher at 19? Ok, I disagree. The rest I agree with.

I was just throwing Norris out there as a guy I personally would like to see us take, not someone I could see the Sox taking.So given the Sox draft philosophy, here are some guys we can presume the Sox are probably going to be in on at 19 and 26.

Taylor Jungmann

Jackie Bradley

Blake Swihart

Mikie Mahtook

Tyler Anderson

Andrew Susac

Kolten Wong

Dillon Howard

This draft is so good that it's going to be impossible to be let down by the Sox day one picks. Man, I'm pumped.



My expertise is mostly just to pitching so I'm notgoing to talk much about hitters.

I don't really like Jungmann. It's not his stuff or his frame but his delivery. Particularly his landing spot, it's way off to the3rd base side of the mound leading him to throw across his body. I also suspect he has some inverted L or hyperabduction, but I can't be sure. There are not enough pics and videos.

I know Anderson us a change-up artist, but he is never going to throw harder than he does, 88-92.

I like Dillon Howard, he kind of reminds me of a right handed Jon Lester.

#42 TheGoldenGreek33

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Posted 25 April 2011 - 09:56 PM

It's no more silly than saying Bauer won't be there, but Norris will.

I don't know, man. Unlike Bauer, Norris has a ton of leverage. I don't think it's unreasonable.

So you think this year is different enough that they would draft a prep pitcher at 19?

I actually stated I didn't think they'd take a prep arm at 19. That it was just my pick if he's there.

I don't really like Jungmann. It's not his stuff or his frame but his delivery. Particularly his landing spot, it's way off to the 3rd base side of the mound leading him to throw across his body. I also suspect he has some inverted L or hyperabduction, but I can't be sure. There are not enough pics and videos.

There are some concerns with Jungmann's mechanics, but I think they're a bit harsh. There is a brief moment where he picks his arm up with his PAS elbow to form a bit of an inverted-L, but he turns over and loads the scalp very well -- which is all you really need to see. The issue lies within the fact that he throws across his body, but like you said, it's just an issue of his plant foot -- easily correctible, IMO. He's early as a result and sacrifices a lot because of it. I don't think it's a difficult fix and it'll just add to his present stuff and give him more deception.

#43 Phragle


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Posted 25 April 2011 - 11:18 PM

I don't know, man. Unlike Bauer, Norris has a ton of leverage. I don't think it's unreasonable.


No, not unreasonable, but somewhat unpredicitable. Just like mock drafts.

I actually stated I didn't think they'd take a prep arm at 19. That it was just my pick if he's there.


I didn't see that, my bad.


There are some concerns with Jungmann's mechanics, but I think they're a bit harsh. There is a brief moment where he picks his arm up with his PAS elbow to form a bit of an inverted-L, but he turns over and loads the scalp very well -- which is all you really need to see. The issue lies within the fact that he throws across his body, but like you said, it's just an issue of his plant foot -- easily correctible, IMO. He's early as a result and sacrifices a lot because of it. I don't think it's a difficult fix and it'll just add to his present stuff and give him more deception.

Good to know, all the videos I saw were from the front where you can't really see much. Can you think of anybody that had the same landing problem, and easily fixed it?


What do you guys think of Josh Bell?

I just read on soxprospects that:

Jackie Bradley Jr. has a possible torn tendon in his left wrist and will see a hand specialist today.

It's something worth keeping an eye on.

Edited by phragle, 25 April 2011 - 11:25 PM.


#44 Phragle


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Posted 25 April 2011 - 11:55 PM

keithlaw
Hearing Jackie Bradley Jr.'s wrist injury involves a torn ligament and he could miss the rest of the spring #mlbdraft






#45 TheGoldenGreek33

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Posted 26 April 2011 - 12:37 AM

No, not unreasonable, but somewhat unpredicitable. Just like mock drafts.


Agreed. Good point.

Good to know, all the videos I saw were from the front where you can't really see much. Can you think of anybody that had the same landing problem, and easily fixed it?

Yeah, I'm not quite sure why a lot of video of pitchers are shot from the front. Irks me as well. To answer your question, though, -- and I'm no pitching expert-- but Randy Johnson is the first name that pops in my head (mainly because he was my favorite non-Sox pitcher growing up). Back in the early-90's when he was walking 150 guys a year... Sammy Ellis was the pitching coach at the time responsible for making the adjustment, before he came over to the Sox. Johnson was the classic tall-n-fall guy that threw across his body, much like Jungmann. But, the bigger issue that stems from throwing across your body isn't it at all in itself... it's that combined with limited lower half usage, it allows for little, if any, hip/shoulder separation (which means that the arm is rotating with the body, which affects command... big time). I had this problem in high school as well. Fixed it in two weeks, tops. Of course, Augie and Skip aren't going to mess with him in college. They're there, like all college coaches, to see and correct short-term mechanical issues. Jungmann's dominated since stepping foot in Austin... why fix it, you know? Anyway, pitchers are actually taught to keep their GS foot planted slightly facing third base (for rhp's) because it keeps their hips from flying open too early, maximizing the torque at which all pitchers should get their power from -- the core/trunk. So, the biggest hurdle mechanically, IMO, facing Jungmann is going to be using his lower half and rotating his hips before his shoulders...

Jered Weaver and AJ Burnett are a couple other guys that struggled with this early in their career. If you watch Weaver now, he's still slightly pointed towards 3rd base.

@KendallRogersPG Interesting comment from a coach- "Our guys are much more scared of facing Trevor Bauer than Gerrit Cole".


Bauer's averaging 8+ innings/start, so of course his pitch counts are high. God, I hate college coaches. Get him on a proper pitch limit and he's as safe of a bet for a top of the rotation guy as there is. Oh, but he's so unorthodox...

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 26 April 2011 - 12:56 AM.


#46 Phragle


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Posted 26 April 2011 - 01:09 AM

Awesome stuff, Greek.

I think I found our difference of opinion on Bauer vs. Norris.

I was going on the stats I posted a while ago, but over his last 18 innings he has been obliterating line-ups, and climbing the draft board. He is conservatively a top 10 pick now. I'm sure you were going on his latest numbers. Bauer will go before Norris.



#47 TheGoldenGreek33

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Posted 26 April 2011 - 01:59 AM

45/5 K/BB in his last 27 IP... unreal, man. 10+ strikeouts in 9/10 starts this spring. Whew.

#48 Phragle


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Posted 26 April 2011 - 03:39 PM

Posted Image

I would poop if Matt Barnes (RHP, Uconn) falls to19, but he projects to go 5-15. He’s everything you want in a pitcher. He’s6’4” 200, projectable, has a nice delivery, a live arm with mid 90s heat withexcellent movement, and good off-speed pitches.




Posted Image

Like I’ve said earlier in the thread, I like ArchieBradley. He is a big country strong right-hander from Oklahoma. 6’4” 230 and hesits around 93 with his fastball, but that is the two-seamer that he throwsmost of the time. His four-seamer sits around 95 but can get up to 98. Add tothat a power curve that is a real hammer. His change-up is a work in progress. Remind you of anyone?

Spoiler


As a two sport (football QB and pitcher) athlete committedto Oklahoma he is a signability guy. If he gets by the Marlins we have a shotat him at 26. He could easily ask for 3-4 million. I've even spotted some thing in his delivery that could unlock a few more MPH.


Edited by phragle, 26 April 2011 - 03:41 PM.


#49 RedOctober3829


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Posted 26 April 2011 - 04:04 PM

In the 2nd-5th round, they should look at Stony Brook RHP Nick Tropeano(6'4" 205 lbs). He is having a heck of a year which piggybacks off his breakout summer on the Cape.

8-1 W-L
1.06 ERA
59.2 IP
35 H
7 ER
78 K
12 BB


In his starts against tougher competition, he's shown he can get out very good hitters. In his season opener at Florida Atlantic, he pitched 6 shutout IP giving up 3 hits and striking out 8. At UNC, he went 5 IP and gave up 3 of his 7 ER on the season. He features a fastball at 88-92, a devastating changeup, and he's added a sinker that keeps hitters way off-balanced. His competitiveness is something I've never seen from a baseball player at this level.

He played for Mike Roberts and the Cotuit Kettleers last summer. He struggled at the start of the summer allowing 15 runs in 21.2 IP. But, he really turned heads over the last part of the schedule as he pitched to a 2.04 ERA over his last 44 IP giving up 32 hits. In the championship game, he came in relief and threw 6.2 hitless innings and struck out 8 over 97 pitches after throwing 87 pitches three days earlier.

This quote from Cotuit coach Mike Roberts(actually taken down from our former friend JulE6): “There was no doubt in my mind that if Nick Tropeano finished that ballgame, the Cotuit Kettleers were going to win,” said Cotuit manager Mike Roberts. “(He) is one of the greatest competitors I’ve ever seen in collegiate baseball in my 30-plus years of coaching. He is Long Island tough.”

On this mock draft, he's projected to go in Round 2 to the Atlanta Braves with the 86th overall pick.

Edited by RedOctober3829, 26 April 2011 - 07:03 PM.


#50 RedOctober3829


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Posted 26 April 2011 - 07:04 PM

KendallRogersPG
#SouthCarolina coach Ray Tanner told reporters unlikely Jackie Bradley returns this season. Likely out two months. Wow.