33 replies to this topic

[Sampo Gida]

Since 2006, we have all learned the importance of starting pitching depth. Teams rarely get through a season with the 5 starters they started the season with. There are either injuries or performance issues that crop up.

This year, it looks like we have the following pitchers who could step in as starter should one of the top 5 go down.

Wakefield who is 44. Last year 8 of his first 13 starts were quality starts, but he struggled after that.

Doubront who has yet to pitch in ST due to elbow/forearm tightness

Aceves who is coming off injuries and had a rocky outing today

Miller who has struggled as a starter in the past and is a reclamation project

Bowden who has yet to show he can get MLB hitters out with any regularity

Tazawa coming off TJ surgery would seem to be unlikely to help this year

Is this enough depth? Anyone I missed?

[Trotsky]

Looks about right to me. There's a lot of depth there, but all of it questionable. Of course, I don't know how many other teams have "depth" that has no question marks surrounding it anyhow. Would someone like Pimintel be eligible to be qualified as "depth"?
Also, until Tazawa and Doubront start throwing I'm not sure they should even be in the conversation. I'd put the depth to step in in case of injury as:
Wakefield
Bowden
Miller
Aceves

[FunkySox]

Isn't Bowden out of the equation as he has been converted to the bullpen? Also I would add Rich Hill to the list. Though his immediate role is as bullpen insurance, he was once an effective major league starter.

[went9]

You may need to add Stolmy Pimentel to the starting pitcher depth chart. He has been getting regular starts in the Sox MLB spring games. The FO is taking a good look at him and he is projected to start the season in AA Portland. Stolmy just tuned 21 and has really filled out this year. Theo has been known to go straight to AA for a starter when needed on short notice (ex: Justin Masterson 2008).


Photo of Stormy Pimentel from 3/9/11 vs Cardinals in Jupiter, (photo credit went9).
Fan Graphs has him listed at 6'3", 165 but you can see that he is no longer the skinny 16 yr old kid that the Sox gave a $25k signing bonus to in 2006 as an International Free Agent. He's also on the Sox 40 man with three options remaining so no move would need to be made to clear a spot for him to come up and help in a pinch.



Mid 90's FF, plus CH, and above average 12/6 CU. Pimentel has a two seamer and is working to develop his cutter.

Edited by went9, 11 March 2011 - 02:15 PM.

[keyalyn]

If these players didn't have any question marks then they'd be in the rotation. They're not perfect and all have their warts, but its about as strong as you could hope for in terms of pitching depth. They won't help much if Lester has to get TJ surgery, but they're just fine to fill in for a handful of starts here and there. That's just about all you can ask for from a depth player.

[Trotsky]

And any prospect that is added to the depth chart is still considered "questionable" to me, no matter how much they are lighting the mL's on fire. Until they can take down ML hitters on a consistent basis, they're still just questions.

And I'd still say Bowden could step in and make a 5 inning spot start if need be.

[Sampo Gida]

If these players didn't have any question marks then they'd be in the rotation. They're not perfect and all have their warts, but its about as strong as you could hope for in terms of pitching depth. They won't help much if Lester has to get TJ surgery, but they're just fine to fill in for a handful of starts here and there. That's just about all you can ask for from a depth player.

Jon lester and Clay Buchholz at one time were depth, as was a healthy Tazawa.

Also, Theo is concerned about the depth this year.

http://www.weei.com/...g-depth-concern

"Starting pitching depth after our top five guys, we have [Tim] Wakefield, who can start for us. We have [Felix] Doubront, who may be in a position to start some games for us. And we have [Alfredo] Aceves, who may be able to start some for us. But we don't have a lot of young starting pitching in the upper minors ready to step in. I listed eight guys. The average big league team goes through 10 or 11 starters over the course of the season, so I don't know where those starts are going to come from. We're going to have to figure that part out as we go.

That was before Doubront experienced elbow/forearm tightness.

You may need to add Stolmy Pimentel to the starting pitcher depth chart. He has been getting regular starts in the Sox MLB spring games. The FO is taking a good look at him and he is projected to start the season in AA Portland. Stolmy just tuned 21 and has really filled out this year. Theo has been known to go straight to AA for a starter when needed on short notice (ex: Justin Masterson 2008).

He had a 4+ ERA in A+ ball. Has to do well in AA to be considered as depth for 2011 IMHO. If he has a great first half, maybe he can be added to the list.

[deborafitz]

I would feel a lot better about our depth if Dice-K could just have a decent outing. I would then be comfortable with Wake, Bowden , Miller as our 6,7 8 for now, with Doubrant as our 6 when/if he recovers. I am also optimistic about Pimentel as a possible July call-up if that is needed. You can never have enough pitching, but considering what is out there (unsigned free agents), I think we will be ok with what we have for now.

[RedSoxandBlueStripes]

It's plenty. No-one's got a good number seven unless they've got a top prospect just waiting to burst through. Wake is about as good a sixth man as anyone has.

[aron7awol]

It's plenty. No-one's got a good number seven unless they've got a top prospect just waiting to burst through. Wake is about as good a sixth man as anyone has.

You're right that not many teams have a good (average #4-#5 level or so) 7th starter. Well, of course they don't. However, most teams do have AAAA guys or solid prospects in AAA/AA who can come in and at least keep his team in the game at the major league level. That is what the current Sox farm system is missing, the top level depth. 6 or 7 good starters is generally not enough to make it through a season of MLB. Teams usually end up using closer to 10 or more guys over the course of a season. That isn't by choice, it's by necessity.

No, it's not plenty.

[keyalyn]

You're right that not many teams have a good (average #4-#5 level or so) 7th starter. Well, of course they don't. However, most teams do have AAAA guys or solid prospects in AAA/AA who can come in and at least keep his team in the game at the major league level. That is what the current Sox farm system is missing, the top level depth. 6 or 7 good starters is generally not enough to make it through a season of MLB. Teams usually end up using closer to 10 or more guys over the course of a season. That isn't by choice, it's by necessity.

No, it's not plenty.

Doubront can classified as a solid prospect. Pimental is more of a longshot, but will likely start the season at AA and had good peripherals last season despite the 4.06ERA. Tazawa probably wont help right away, but he is throwing now and should be of use sometime this season. Reports on Miller have been overwhelmingly positive this spring. Aceves has had success as a starter at both the major and minor league level. Rich Hill, DiNardo and Duckworth can certainly be classified as AAAA guys. And Hill has had success as a starter in the majors before.

Aceves and Doubront are the safest best to provide value, and expecting 2 of the other 6 to be able to keep the team in the game for a handful of starts is perfectly reasonable. Teams generally go through about 10 starters, but 2-3 of them make about 5 starts between them. I am comfortable with the guys they have to cover those 5 or so starts. The 6-8 starters (Wakefield, Aceves, Doubront) are all excellent for that role, and the rest of them should be fine for the remaining starts someone else has to cover.

[TigerBlood]

I'd agree with the idea that we are not rolling in great back up starters. Wake is Wake - he can start for us, sometimes he gets knocked around, sometimes he's lights out - he's a knuckleballer past his prime, what were you expecting - they give him spot starts because no team can do much to prepare for him. I think sometimes he should be exclusively a long man in the bullpen, because even though he can give us [6 IP, 1-2 ER], I am never surprised if he gives up a run per inning for just 4 or 5 innings. A prospect (like Felix) can do that, and atleast the kid gets some major league experience). Sorry Wake, I'd love for you to get the wins record, but not at the cost of taking opportunities away from youngsters.

Doubront, is solid, should his elbow problem be minor (no TJ surgery plz). Aceves and Miller are projects that the team probably sees as quality quality arms for the 7th and 8th spots on the depth chart. I'd say that the backup starter era is over for Michael Bowden, he should be in the Boston bullpen by the end of this year or traded (should've traded him when he looked like he was about to break through there a couple years ago "sigh". Oh hindsight...) I'll reserve judgement on Tazawa until he starts pitching again.

Even these guys are question marks, and the gamble only gets worse as you go farther down the chart. Think about this though - at least we aren't gambling on our main rotation with guys like Penny and Smoltz again.

[Sampo Gida]

Even these guys are question marks, and the gamble only gets worse as you go farther down the chart. Think about this though - at least we aren't gambling on our main rotation with guys like Penny and Smoltz again.

The opening day rotation in 2009 did not include Smoltz. I would call Smoltz depth. As it was, Pennys 2009 WAR (per Fan Graphs) matched Daisukes 2010 WAR (2.5), and exceeded Becketts.

Going back to 2004, here are the number of games the top 5 starters started and the number of starters used.

Top 5 starters games (total starters)
2004 157 ( 8)
2005 143 (9)
2006 114 (14)
2007 140 (9)
2008 134 (11)
2009 125 (11)
2010 139 (8)

Looking at the 7 year average we see the top 5 made an average of 137 starts, and 10 starters were required. Maybe we get lucky like in 2004, but you can not count on it. 2006 of course was a train wreck. That was the year Theo traded Arroyo for Willy Mo at the end of ST. Lesson learned.

Edited by Sampo Gida, 16 March 2011 - 11:41 PM.

[TigerBlood]

The opening day rotation in 2009 did not include Smoltz. I would call Smoltz depth. As it was, Pennys 2009 WAR (per Fan Graphs) matched Daisukes 2010 WAR (2.5), and exceeded Becketts.

Exactly, except my point is that the team went into 2009 with high-hopes, some might even say expectations, that Smoltz would claw his way back from surgery and provide a mighty boost in June assuming the 4 spot, I wouldn't say anyone is expecting that from Aceves/Miller/Doubront. All we are expecting is them to perform well enough to spot start.
Fair point about Penny, for the most part, except he was just downright bad, whereas Beckett was injured. And yes Daisuke was lest than stellar

Going back to 2004, here are the number of games the top 5 starters started and the number of starters used.

Top 5 starters games (total starters)
2004 157 ( 8)
2005 143 (9)
2006 114 (14)
2007 140 (9)
2008 134 (11)
2009 125 (11)
2010 139 (8)

Looking at the 7 year average we see the top 5 made an average of 137 starts, and 10 starters were required. Maybe we get lucky like in 2004, but you can not count on it. 2006 of course was a train wreck. That was the year Theo traded Arroyo for Willy Mo at the end of ST. Lesson learned.

And in the seasons where we use 9+, does the team really know who would be # 9, 10... I doubt it. It mostly depends on which starters are performing well in Portland and Pawtucket at the points throughout the season when we need a spot start or two, and it's not like many pitchers who are really suited for the majors would be in the minors anyways, like keyalyn said.

Edited by TigerBlood, 17 March 2011 - 09:10 PM.

[Sampo Gida]

And in the seasons where we use 9+, does the team really know who would be # 9, 10... I doubt it. It mostly depends on which starters are performing well in Portland and Pawtucket at the points throughout the season when we need a spot start or two, and it's not like many pitchers who are really suited for the majors would be in the minors anyways, like keyalyn said.

I think they project as to who may be available from the minors, and try to stock up on depth during the offseason by signing MLB guys to minor league deals. These signings always have some question marks, and you hope you have enough so at least 1-2 work out. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. Obviously, they can not predict injuries or players who fail to develop or recover as expected. Doubronts injury was not unexpected, and he was a big part of the depth. Maybe he recovers, but the lack of news is worrisome.

You say a spot start or 2, yet I showed that in an average season you are looking at 25 starts. Wakefield if healthy can probably handle 25 starts, but the nature of injuries is such that you may have 2-3 of your starting 5 on the DL or otherwise unavailable, and sometimes they miss time at the same time, so Wakefield can not be assumed to make all 25 starts, or be healthy for that matter.

Players suited for the majors who are in the minors include prospects close to MLB ready and are waiting for an open spot, and veterans coming off injury or poor seasons who could not land a MLB job. Since we have none of the former except Doubront who is injured, we must rely on the latter, and thats a pretty questionable list. Of course, like with Smoltz, we have some hope that Aceves, Miller, Hill, etc can show they are healthy and effective if needed.

Perhaps the Red Sox get lucky and have few injuries, and this does not become an issue. If not, and the depth disappoints, like Smoltz did, the Red Sox can always make an in season trade to acquire a starter if needed.

Edited by Sampo Gida, 17 March 2011 - 09:53 PM.

[deborafitz]

is there a possibility Wakefield does not make the team? I don't think this will happen, but some interesting comments from Tito
http://www.boston.co...ield_among.html

[aron7awol]

Given the lack of starting pitching depth, it would be incredibly short-sighted to release Wakefield. Granted, Aceves is probably the better spot starter, but he can be optioned. You will almost certainly need both of them this season, and I don't see anyone disputing that they are the #6 and #7 options in some order. Behind those two guys, however, there isn't much. Doubront has his concerning elbow issue. Miller is, at this stage in the game, being groomed as a reliever. Hill changed his delivery to be sidearm to help him in relief.

[Sampo Gida]

Seeing as that the starting pitching depth is about to be tested, I thought I would bump this thread.

Wakefield and Aceves are obviously next on the depth chart and both are scheduled to make starts this weekend.

Whose next?

Miller has demonstrated the same control problems with the pawsox as he did with the Marlins.

Doubront is out with yet another injury (groin) and has yet to throw 5 IP, so he is not available.

Tazawa is throwing but probably won't be ready until the 2nd half.

Stolmy Pimentel has not pitched well.

Bowden has been called up for bullpen duty and could be called on to make a start.

The 35 you Duckworth has pitched well with the pawsox, but his career 5+ ERA at the MLB level makes you wonder if he can get the job done if called on. He seems to be the best option after Bowden.

[keyalyn]

A 5+ ERA is about what you should expect from a 5th starter, so I don't think that is a huge negative for Duckworth. Matt Fox has also pitched well in the rotation for AAA, and Weiland has also put up decent peripherals and gone at least 5IP in each of his last 5 starts. Any of the above should be fine for 3-4 starts if needed.

[Sampo Gida]

A 5+ ERA is about what you should expect from a 5th starter, so I don't think that is a huge negative for Duckworth. Matt Fox has also pitched well in the rotation for AAA, and Weiland has also put up decent peripherals and gone at least 5IP in each of his last 5 starts. Any of the above should be fine for 3-4 starts if needed.

Fox has given up 7 HR in 37 IP and Weiland walks too many batters. Neither one is on the 40 man roster.

Anyways, the Red Sox are apparently kicking the tires on Kevin Millwood which is not surprising, since as I mentioned earlier in the thread, Theo himself was not comfortable with the starting pitching depth in ST.

[keyalyn]

Fox has given up 7 HR in 37 IP and Weiland walks too many batters. Neither one is on the 40 man roster.

Anyways, the Red Sox are apparently kicking the tires on Kevin Millwood which is not surprising, since as I mentioned earlier in the thread, Theo himself was not comfortable with the starting pitching depth in ST.

They're both a whole lot more likely than Tazawa, Pimentel or Miller to help in the near future, so their names should be thrown on the pile. Of course they're not perfect, but if they were then they'd be in the rotation already. Depth by definition isn't supposed to be perfect. The HR rate for Fox should be some concern, but while Weiland walks a lot of guys, he also strikes out a ton too. Nothing wrong with a 2.25K/BB.

[Revkeith]

Fox has given up 7 HR in 37 IP and Weiland walks too many batters. Neither one is on the 40 man roster.

Anyways, the Red Sox are apparently kicking the tires on Kevin Millwood which is not surprising, since as I mentioned earlier in the thread, Theo himself was not comfortable with the starting pitching depth in ST.

Millwood has said he won't go anywhere that won't give him an almost-immediate job in the bigs, but I doubt any team will give him that opportunity. He was pretty awful his last year with Baltimore as well. That being said, he's not a terrible option if you're looking for a #5 starter that you can at least try out if he sucks it up and agrees to prove himself in AAA. Gotta see what Aceves is made of first, though.

[Sampo Gida]

Millwood has said he won't go anywhere that won't give him an almost-immediate job in the bigs, but I doubt any team will give him that opportunity. He was pretty awful his last year with Baltimore as well. That being said, he's not a terrible option if you're looking for a #5 starter that you can at least try out if he sucks it up and agrees to prove himself in AAA. Gotta see what Aceves is made of first, though.

Millwood has signed with the Red Sox.

With Beckett coming out of the game early with neck tightness (shoulder?), he might be up sooner rather than later.

[Tyrone Biggums]

Millwood has signed with the Red Sox.

With Beckett coming out of the game early with neck tightness (shoulder?), he might be up sooner rather than later.

This guy shouldn't even be starting for the Long Island Ducks...anyone but Millwood please!

[sancap14]

Low risk signing. Stash him in AAA a maybe catch lightning in a bottle for a couple of starts. His numbers weren't too shabby in 2009. You never know.

[keyalyn]

Can't fault them for getting pitching depth, especially with two guys in the rotation going on the DL, but just about every scout who saw the guy pitch in AAA had negative things to say. His stuff looked awful, his velocity dropped, and overall didn't look like someone who can help them out much. Absolutely worth a shot, but chances are pretty good that he wont amount to anything.

[Sampo Gida]

SP depth off to a good start, albeit against the Cubbies. 11 2/3 IP, 2 ER. Not sure a healthy Lackey and Daisuke could have topped this.

[TigerBlood]

SP depth off to a good start, albeit against the Cubbies. 11 2/3 IP, 2 ER. Not sure a healthy Lackey and Daisuke could have topped this.

Too right. I should probably hold off on this post until after Wake's start tomorrow, but Aceves with another fine outing today (6 IP, 1 ER). Granted he had a 7 run lead after 3 innings, so it wasn't a huge pressure situation or anything but seven runs is about when you could also take your foot off the gas a little too much also. I guesss I'm saying I don't know how to factor in our offense, but he pitched well nonetheless.

Thats 17 2/3 IP 3 ER (1.53 ERA) Not to mention Aceves isn't even fully stretched out as a starter. Its only 3 starts, but that if we got those numbers from Jon,Josh and Clay over three starts I would be quite happy.

[Sampo Gida]

Thats 17 2/3 IP 3 ER (1.53 ERA) Not to mention Aceves isn't even fully stretched out as a starter. Its only 3 starts, but that if we got those numbers from Jon,Josh and Clay over three starts I would be quite happy.

Aceves has been impressive. He had a problem staying healthy which is why the Yankees let him go, so lets see if he can continue to make Cashman look really, really dumb.

[IM2]

Its only 3 starts, but that if we got those numbers from Jon,Josh and Clay over three starts I would be quite happy.

It would be even better if they put up those kind of numbers on all of their starts.

[Sampo Gida]

To date, 20 starts have been needed by the depth, with Wake getting most of them. Here is the list.

Wake, 11 GS, 5-3, 1.302 WHIP, 4.74 ERA
Miller, 4 GS, 3-0, 1.588 WHIP, 3.57 ERA
Aceves 4 GS, 1-1, 1.571 WHIP, 5.14 ERA
Weiland, 1 GS, 0-0, 2.50 WHIP, 13.50 ERA

Miller has a nice ERA but has faced some pretty weak teams and has a fairly high WHIP, so not sure about him yet. Wake getting to the point where you wonder how many more starts he has left in him before tweaking something. Aceves struggled a bit his last couple of starts, and Weiland had a rocky first outing.

With Daisuke out for the year, and Lackey being quite inconsistent and having elbow problems, and Buchholz with a back problem that seems a bit more serious than first thought, the depth likely will be called on to pitch quite a bit more in the 2nd half.

Down in the farm we have Doubront who is probably next on the depth chart, and the rest of those mentioned in this thread.

Doubront, 1.278 WHIP, 3.53 ERA
Fox, 1.344 WHIP, 4.82 ERA
Duckworth, 1.377 WHIP, 4.44 ERA
Millwood, 1.317 WHIP, 4.50 ERA
Pimentel, 1.947 WHIP, 9.12 ERA
Tazawa, 1.640 WHIP, 7.92 ERA

Not sure who else would be considered.

[Trotsky]

I would love to hear some positive news on how Clay's back is coming along. Without him, our starting pitching feels like two aces and 3 "no. 5's" and it gives me some pause. Nobody in the minors excites me too much to step up and pitch better than Jon or Josh either. Some chatter on the main page about a potential deal for Garza which would be a great idea to bring him in if and only if Clay's back continues to hold him out. Any deal for him feels like it would likely cost us Kalish or Reddick and I'm higher on Reddick...
It would be a good idea (two years remaining on Garza's contract) to "go for it now" with Papi having a great bounce back year, Youk probably at the height of his ability, etc....
I think this is the year to put everything in even if it means sacrificing one of our two top OF kids along with someone else (pitcher, I'm sure).

[jnlevetoncnmt]

If Clay's back is worse than thought and he might not return, then I wonder if Theo is "kicking the tires" on Edwin Jackson or Livan Hernandez. Obviously Garza is better, but Garza would cost alot in prospects due to the fact he is signed for the next couple years and has such a high strike out rate-9.4/9 in 2011.

Edwin Jackson is a free agent next year and is pitching pretty well for the White Sox. 4.3era, 7.8K/9, 2.9bb/9. The White Sox are only 5 games out of first in the central so I don't know if they see themselves as buyers or sellers.

Livan Hernandez, likewise is a free agent next year, is with the Nationals, who I would assume see themselves as sellers since they are 11 games out. He has a 4.01era, 5.7k/9, 2.4bb/9

Either of these two would cost alot less in prospects and they wouldn't cause a 40 man roster sqeeze next year with Beckett, Lester, Clay, Lackey, and Miller already signed as starters. (Wake in the pen to start the year I assume)

[Trotsky]

If Clay's back is worse than thought and he might not return, then I wonder if Theo is "kicking the tires" on Edwin Jackson or Livan Hernandez. Obviously Garza is better, but Garza would cost alot in prospects due to the fact he is signed for the next couple years and has such a high strike out rate-9.4/9 in 2011.

Edwin Jackson is a free agent next year and is pitching pretty well for the White Sox. 4.3era, 7.8K/9, 2.9bb/9. The White Sox are only 5 games out of first in the central so I don't know if they see themselves as buyers or sellers.

Livan Hernandez, likewise is a free agent next year, is with the Nationals, who I would assume see themselves as sellers since they are 11 games out. He has a 4.01era, 5.7k/9, 2.4bb/9

Either of these two would cost alot less in prospects and they wouldn't cause a 40 man roster sqeeze next year with Beckett, Lester, Clay, Lackey, and Miller already signed as starters. (Wake in the pen to start the year I assume)

5 games out of first in the weak AL Central? Definitely contenders, and, while possibly not buyers, definitely not sellers. Chicago is a good team and if they make the playoffs could beat anyone (they swept 3 from us at Fenway). I like Jackson. Like him. Don't love him. Not even worth seriously considering though, thankfully, at this point.
Livan though? Pass. Never liked him as anything other than a solid innings eater on a NL team.

Could we please get some news about Clay?!??!!