[jp]

Just wondering what the point of view is on Chris Smith? I've read that he is not a fireballer but he seems to be having some success now. Is he a back of the rotation candidate if everything continues to progress?

[GrogansNeckRoll]

jp, on Jun 23 2006, 06:32 AM, said:

Just wondering what the point of view is on Chris Smith?  I've read that he is not a fireballer but he seems to be having some success now.  Is he a back of the rotation candidate if everything continues to progress?
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He definitely appears to be a candidate. In fact, in light of the success of Pap and Lester, and with Smith having very much been on pace with them since being drafted (Lester having been picked in Round 2 of '02 and Smith in Round 4, and Pap in the '03 draft along with Abe Alvarez), it would seem Smith has paid his dues and earned a callup.

He was flying through AA in 2004, but had a setback in 2005, pitching poorly and having arm problems that required surgery. Now, he seems to be blowing through AA and I can't comprehend why, at the least, he's not in AAA right now.

No, he's not a fireballer. He was compared at draft time to Greg Maddux. A fastball that hovers around 90, an excellent curve, and pinpoint control.

His injury issues (including an immature argument with an ATV that resulted in a broken arm) have set him back substantially. Indeed, when Alvarez got a spot start for the Red Sox in 2004, my understanding is that start would have gone to Smith but for his injuries. His progress has been set back at least a year with all of this.

Now, he's right where he was in 2004. Dominating control, excellent (3/1) K/BB ratio. The one thing that concerns me is his K/9. In 2004, it was around 10. Now, it's around 6. Granted, a 10 K/9 is not to be expected from a finesse pitcher, but I'm curious as to why he once did this and now doesn't.

Bottom line, if I had to choose among Lester, Jason Johnson, Alvarez, and Smith, I would pick Lester as our number 4 and Smith as our number 5. Johnson is, at best, a project--a poor man's Derek Lowe--and I've seen Alvarez pitch each time he's been with the club, and I just don't see it. Maybe everyone's impressed because of the blindness thing, I don't know. But I've seen his stuff and, so far, not impressive. He's hung his breaking stuff too much, and for a lefty in Fenway, that's an Acela ticket back to Pawtucket. Smith at least deserves a chance. Maybe a spot start if they have another crush of games coming up due to earlier rainouts.

Also, don't know if you saw the Globe article on him from June 23. A decent read.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

GrogansNeckRoll, on Jul 6 2006, 01:03 PM, said:

Now, he's right where he was in 2004.  Dominating control, excellent (3/1) K/BB ratio.  The one thing that concerns me is his K/9.  In 2004, it was around 10.  Now, it's around 6.  Granted, a 10 K/9 is not to be expected from a finesse pitcher, but I'm curious as to why he once did this and now doesn't. 
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Evidently, his fastball went from mid-90s to high-80s. Arm trouble was a torn labrum. From the sound of this Hartford Courant article, it sounds like the velocity isn't coming back.

[Cuzittt]

He is probably not the next player on the Boston shuttle (if they pick someone who has not yet been up, my guess is it will be Kason Gabbard)... but I would like to see him moved up to Pawtucket.

Of course, they have pretty much promoted the entire staff from Portland... and Portland is in a pennant race. So, I'm not sure if we are going to see a promotion.

But, if we do, it will likely be after the All-Star Break. Chris Smith will be participating in the EL All-Star Game.

-Brandon

[GrogansNeckRoll]

wade boggs chicken dinner, on Jul 6 2006, 10:18 AM, said:

Evidently, his fastball went from mid-90s to high-80s.  Arm trouble was a torn labrum.  From the sound of this Hartford Courant article, it sounds like the velocity isn't coming back.
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Interesting. I could be wrong, but my recollection is that he never had mid-90s stuff. I'll see if I can find some info to back this up. But if that was the case, that would explain the dropoff in K/9.

[GrogansNeckRoll]

GrogansNeckRoll, on Jul 6 2006, 12:40 PM, said:

Interesting.  I could be wrong, but my recollection is that he never had mid-90s stuff.  I'll see if I can find some info to back this up.  But if that was the case, that would explain the dropoff in K/9.
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This from a 2004 article--pre-torn-labrum, but post ATV accident: "Smith recovered in time to pitch 10 games in Class A last year, going 5-3. He still has a reminder of his accident - with two titanium plates and 12 screws in his arm - but he also has a 90-mph fastball and enough off-speed stuff to keep hitters honest." http://sports.mainetoday.com/seadogs/stori...07doggies.shtml

I can't find the original scouting report I read after he was initially drafted, but I'm almost certain he's never had a mid-90s fastball, and I believe the Courant may just be mistaken on this. I also haven't found anything other than the Courant that references a mid-90s fastball.

This is, of course, post-torn-labrum, but doesn't mention that he ever had a dominant heater. "Scouting Report: Average fastball with power breaking curve. Good knowledge of pitching. Shows starter potential, but may need to add some speed to his fastball to compete at MLB level. Missed most of 2002 season after an ATV accident, from which he has recovered well. Great preparation skills. Throws off-speed pitches for strikes, often at unexpected counts. Pounds the strike zone with great command, doesn't walk many batters. Also has an effective knuckle-curve. Similar style to Mike Mussina or Greg Maddux. Missed the last month of the 2004 season with a partially torn labrum." http://www.soxprospe...smith-chris.htm

So, that's my belief, anyhow. I'm curious if someone can find something otherwise, as that would definitely change my opinion about his immediate prospects. But I believe he's always made do with his finesse pitching, average fastball, plus curve, and a decent sinker and slider combo too.