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Trade Deadline Discussion
#1
Posted 06 February 2011 - 01:38 PM
Last year, there was a decent amount of movement but not much in the way of star-power moving. Mediocre players getting dealt for 2nd round picks set the market high, and I'd imagine that had something to do with it. In the East there are 9 teams fully in the hunt with Buffalo and Florida as possibilities. The West is even more packed with 11 teams within 2 points of a playoff spot and Colorado and Columbus only a few behind that. Realistically, only 6 teams are effectively out of playoff contention. That's pretty amazing and should make for a wild trading season.
So who's available? Who's going to blow it up? Ottawa has already said they're going to be sellers. NJ could move a guy or two. Toronto needs to re-acquire a draft, but I'm not sure if Kaberle would fetch much (personally I think he's spectacularly overrated). Do a few bubble teams say screw it and sell?
And what do the Bruins do? The obvious answer would be to replace Savard in the person of a center, but the team already has about 5204354 guys that can play the position. We've seen what Kampfer has added to the offense, so should they go after another offensive defenseman?
Some say this is the worst time of the year in sports; the Superbowl is over (as of tonight), baseball hasn't started anything yet and all we're left with is the NBA (ack) and the NHL. I say those people are missing out on a lot. February might truly be the Monday of months, but the NHL trade deadline season is exciting as hell.
#2
Posted 06 February 2011 - 02:28 PM
From Ottawa, Fisher is being actively shopped, and I'm sure Kovalev could be had (ha!). I'd also have to think Ruutu and Phillips are also available, but I'm not that high on either one although I admit Phillips intrigues me with Chara. I'd be curious about Iginla in Calgary, but it does look like he's regressing. Tanguay could also be had, but I think I'd pass. I don't think Burke can even take Chiarelli's calls at this point, and I don't think Yandle is going anywhere in Phoenix. Columbus looks like sellers, but Nash isn't going anywhere. ESPN had it in their NHL rumors page that both Voracek and Huselius were being shopped. I'd certainly take a stab at Voracek but would guess the price might be too high. Arnott in NJ is an option, but I agree with someone else who had posted that Pittsburgh seem like better fits.
With all the injuries around the league, my bet is prices are going to be a little high. I would be more inclined to trade a 2nd and a prospect for Fisher, unless NJ doesn't ask for much for Arnott. I think those are the guys I'd target, but if Weber is going to be dealt like the rumors say he will, I think you go for it. I'm not adverse to trading Toronto's #1, because the guy they would need to get fr me to make it untouchable is Larsson, and I think he'll go 1 or 2. Toronto will likely finish 4-5 in the standings, making that probability more unlikely. Although if that pick is included, that should significantly lessen the other level of players/prospects going the other way. But I only do it for Weber. He not only sets you up with a tenacious 1-2 defense punch, but will solidify the backend as the Bruins young and talented forward crop develops.
#3
Posted 06 February 2011 - 02:56 PM
#4
Posted 06 February 2011 - 03:25 PM
I don't think Calgary's selling right now, they're 1 point out of 8th and Jay Feaster probably wants to make a mark in his first season as GM. I do think that Florida will be a seller, ditto Ottawa/NYI/NJ/Toronto/Edmonton. 6 sellers for 15+ buyers means there will be a lot of value trades made when guys like Arnott/Phillips have their prices driven up. There will probably be some East/West forward/defense trades being made, i.e. Fleischmann for Hannan. For the Bruins, if Arnott's cost becomes prohibitive, I could see them trying to get a guy like Michal Handzus should LA fall out of the race.
I would not look to acquire a non-UFA-to-be. The prices will simply be too high on players like Fisher who may end up being more of a headache than an asset after this year. Don't kill me - but I would really like to pick up Alex Kovalev on the cheap to play alongside Krejci. Under no non-Shea Weber/Zach Parise circumstances do I trade Toronto's 1st.
#5
Posted 06 February 2011 - 03:41 PM
Right now the only teams that seem certain to be out of it at the deadline are NYI, Ott, Tor, and Edm. NJ probably is, but they have been playing as well as anyone in hockey the last month, and could find themselves within 6-8 points of a playoff sport by the time the deadline hits
In the west St Louis and Colorado look the most likely to fall out of the race. Florida in the East.
I don't see any way Calgary sell Iginla, they are right here with NJ among the teams playing the best hockey in the league right now.
Given so few teams are out of it this year, I think the price to acquire anything is going to be shockingly high. I suspect there will be mostly second tier players moved, and The Bruins will pick up one or two of those, and will pay handsomely to do it. I don't think the Bruins will be able to add anyone as good as Seidenberg this year.
I truly believe that the NHL is a league that you basically win with what you have and the trade deadline is only for fine tuning. Historically teams that make significant moves at the deadline don't work out.
I think the Bruins will add a body at forward, probably a playoff tested vet, a 3rd/4th line type, and a body on defense, while at the same time moving Stuart out.
#6
Posted 06 February 2011 - 03:44 PM
I'd trip over myself giving up the Toronto 1st and some collection of other prospects and draft picks to land Weber, which makes me think there's no way Nashville does that deal. Even if that pick was in the top 3 (I realize we won't know where it will be, but go with me here), as I think Weber is more of a sure thing than any pick in this year's draft. He's 25 and has almost 200 points (199) in just over 2 and a half seasons.
Um... this is Shea Weber's 6th year in the league.
I'd be shocked if Weber or Suter were traded. They're both bona fide studs and franchise defensemen. As in, pretty much what you HOPE your top draft pick becomes. As a team that doesn't need to save cap and is in the thick of the playoff picture, a first round pick doesn't come nearly as close in value to either player. Considering Weber is an RFA, if someone else were to sign him, Nashville would likely be getting two 1st rounders, a 2nd, and a 3rd. They have no reason to deal Weber for a pick now if they can just retain him for the playoff run and pick up a nice haul at the end of the year. I'd imagine they'll re-sign him though.
#7
Posted 06 February 2011 - 03:54 PM
Um... this is Shea Weber's 6th year in the league.
I am an idiot. I was looking at his yahoo profile page and it only lists the most recent three seasons (including this one). Now that I look at it again, the points for those three seasons don't even add up to 199.
I'll just show myself out now.
#8
Posted 06 February 2011 - 04:06 PM
That's only partly joking. Florida's so toast he could probably be acquired, and not too expensively. And at least you know what you're getting with him. There are probably (edit: definitely) better choices out there, though, if you're willing to put the TOR 1st on the table.
Edited by Blacken, 06 February 2011 - 04:08 PM.
#9
Posted 06 February 2011 - 05:30 PM
#10
Posted 06 February 2011 - 06:23 PM
Ryder for Alfredsson.
What value does Ryder have to Ottawa?
#11
Posted 06 February 2011 - 06:30 PM
#12
Posted 06 February 2011 - 06:43 PM
#13
Posted 06 February 2011 - 07:01 PM
#14
Posted 06 February 2011 - 07:42 PM
What value does Ryder have to Ottawa?
Ottawa is going nowhere fast and Alfredsson is on the books for $4.75M the next 2 years ($4M and $1M in real money, so waivable). Ryder is off the books this season and will give Ottawa some of the production Alfredsson would.Expiring contract I guess...
#15
Posted 06 February 2011 - 08:09 PM
#16
Posted 06 February 2011 - 08:12 PM
You're kidding right? Why wouldn't they just waive Alfredsson to give themselves a better draft pick?Ottawa is going nowhere fast and Alfredsson is on the books for $4.75M the next 2 years ($4M and $1M in real money, so waivable). Ryder is off the books this season and will give Ottawa some of the production Alfredsson would.
Edited by PedroSpecialK, 06 February 2011 - 08:12 PM.
#17
Posted 06 February 2011 - 09:13 PM
Why would they waive a guy who's been pretty loyal to their franchise?You're kidding right? Why wouldn't they just waive Alfredsson to give themselves a better draft pick?
#18
Posted 06 February 2011 - 09:26 PM
I'm saying why would they accept a Ryder for Alfredsson swap when the only thing they gain from it is a worse draft pick than waiving Alfredsson? It's going to take a shit ton more than Michael Ryder to pry Alfredsson away from the Sens. A point per game player last year whose play has dipped in large part due to being on one of the worst teams in hockey.Why would they waive a guy who's been pretty loyal to their franchise?
If the Bruins really want Alfredsson (I still don't think Ottawa trades him), they'll have to surrender a package like Caron, Bartkowski, and either BOS #1 or MIN #2.
#19
Posted 06 February 2011 - 10:27 PM
Pass.
#20
Posted 06 February 2011 - 11:17 PM
Tomas Kaberle- I know, I know. We go down this road every year, but I do believe this year would be the best time to pick him up. UFA, and his cap hit would fit in under Savard's LTIR space. Something like Minnesota's 2nd and a prospect or two should be all it takes, but you never know with Brian Burke. I think he'd be a perfect fit as a #2 behind Chara. He can QB the PP, and acquiring him would take some heat of the rest of the D, Kampfer in particular.
Jason Arnott: I'd really like to get Arnott here for the stretch run. He'd fit in nicely as a 3rd line center, allowing them to leave Seguin and Wheeler on the wing. He's a big body, can chip in some goals, and provide some leadership. Aside from Recchi, the Bruins don't have anyone with Stanley Cup experience, so they could use a vet like Arnott in the dressing room. I feel like his price will get too high, as there aren't too many forwards available on the trade market this year.
Bryan McCabe: Florida's only 6 points out of the playoffs, so I'm not sure they're sellers yet. Atlanta and Carolina have been tripping over themselves recently, so a good week or two by Florida might push them into buyer mode. He's a bit pricey though, and the B's would have to send some salary back to Florida to accommodate McCabe (expiring $5.75 cap hit). Decent numbers with Florida this year (5g, 16a, +7), he'd be another defenseman that could fit in the #2 spot behind Chara and help chip in offensively.
Those are the 3 guys that I'd target as of now, but things could change in the next few weeks. Chris Phillips' name has come up, but he doesn't do much for me. He'd make the team better, but he's not really what they need. He'd essentially be a McQuaid upgrade. Not much offensive skills, but solid in his own end. Alex Kovalev is another interesting candidate, but I'm not sure I can ever picture Kovalev in a B's jersey. He'd be helpful on the PP if he gave a shit, and nobody's more deadly from the half boards than him, but I'm not convinced he'd bring it night in night out.
#21
Posted 06 February 2011 - 11:53 PM
Hemsky gives them some much needed speed and a legit playmaker. Big issue with Hemsky is health. He is coming off a concussion and generally has trouble staying healthy througout his career. Still I'd gamble on him for 1 & 1/2 seasons as he really adds a dimension that this team sorely lacks.
Penner would give them another big body front of the net presence who can score at a high level (32 G last season playing without a legit center). You can't have enough power forwards in the playoffs.
Ideally the B's would find a center but I'd rather they pick up a top 6 productive wing who can contribute on the PP play instead of a mediocre 3rd line center.
I'd probably hold off on the TOR pick for either player but I don't think there is another prospect or pick that I would keep off the table otherwise.
#22
Posted 06 February 2011 - 11:59 PM
I don't remember exactly where I heard the original information that I alluded to, but a quick google yields this as an example.
Alfredsson said, "I have no problems being in Ottawa. In the situation we’re in, I’m not happy about it, but I’m going to make the most of it. I’m going to try to help all the young guys get better and get this ship in the right direction ... I’ve been part of this since 1995 and we’ve been through our ups and downs off the ice and on the ice throughout my years here. That’s life. Everything is not going to go your way. I believe how you act during tough times shows the kind of character you have. We’re definitely being tested right now.”
On being dealt to a contender, Alfredsson said, “As of now that’s not part of my plan at all,” said Alfredsson. “If something were to come up or Bryan were to talk to me I would just keep that really between us and go from there.”
[Senators owner] Melnyk said Alfredsson is untouchable.
#23
Posted 07 February 2011 - 12:07 AM
I'd like to see if EDM is looking to move either Penner or Hemsky. Both are very different players but both could really help out the B's and have ideal cap hits (4.1-4.25 both signed through next year).
Hemsky gives them some much needed speed and a legit playmaker. Big issue with Hemsky is health. He is coming off a concussion and generally has trouble staying healthy througout his career. Still I'd gamble on him for 1 & 1/2 seasons as he really adds a dimension that this team sorely lacks.
Penner would give them another big body front of the net presence who can score at a high level (32 G last season playing without a legit center). You can't have enough power forwards in the playoffs.
Ideally the B's would find a center but I'd rather they pick up a top 6 productive wing who can contribute on the PP play instead of a mediocre 3rd line center.
I'd probably hold off on the TOR pick for either player but I don't think there is another prospect or pick that I would keep off the table otherwise.
I look at Dustin Penner and see a guy who could swap jersies with Ryder or Horton and no one would know the difference. He is what he is a 20-25 goal 45 point guy who had one fluke good year last year.
Hemsky is a talented guy, but charmin soft and always injured. Do we break the bank to bring in a guy who is no better than 50/50 to make it to April not in a hospital bed?
If you tell me I could pick one of them up for Hamil and a second. Sure I take the risk. But no way am I giving up guys like Spooner/Knight/#1 pick etc for either
Bryan McCabe: Florida's only 6 points out of the playoffs, so I'm not sure they're sellers yet. Atlanta and Carolina have been tripping over themselves recently, so a good week or two by Florida might push them into buyer mode. He's a bit pricey though, and the B's would have to send some salary back to Florida to accommodate McCabe (expiring $5.75 cap hit). Decent numbers with Florida this year (5g, 16a, +7), he'd be another defenseman that could fit in the #2 spot behind Chara and help chip in offensively.
I'd be willing to go with something like Stuart and a #2 for McCabe, where Stuey is primarily there for the money, but he has a broken jaw at the moment. He may not even play before the deadline
#24
Posted 07 February 2011 - 12:11 AM
What about Mikhail Grabovski? He's tied for 11th in the league in PPG, he's got a 2.9M cap hit (done after this year), he can replace Savard as the 3rd line center for the rest of the season. This is the first year I've really paid attention to the trade deadline, but do you think Burke would take a #2 and a prospect for him, or maybe the Bruins #1?
#25
Posted 07 February 2011 - 12:28 AM
#26
Posted 07 February 2011 - 12:37 AM
If Savard is out for the rest of the season, I'd like to try and target someone who has some PP success. I know that might cost a boatload, but given that the PP is a huge glaring hole in the Bruins play right now, filling it with a good rental player might be a great move. I know the Bruins are stacked at D and at Center on the Major roster down to the minors, and they also have 2 1sts and 2 2nds this year. I'd be willing to give up a pick and some prospects for someone who can help bring the power play numbers up.
What about Mikhail Grabovski? He's tied for 11th in the league in PPG, he's got a 2.9M cap hit (done after this year), he can replace Savard as the 3rd line center for the rest of the season. This is the first year I've really paid attention to the trade deadline, but do you think Burke would take a #2 and a prospect for him, or maybe the Bruins #1?
Grabovski has another year at 2.9 million
I just really think it is going to be exceptionally difficult for this team to make any deal happen with Toronto, unless Chiarelli decides he wants to get raped.
Burke has egg all over his face because of the Kessel Disaaster. I just don't believe he would make a fair deal with Boston, and face it with 20 teams likely to be buyers at the deadline, he doesn't have to make a deal with Boston
Not to sound overly pessimistic, but I just have this feeling that we are going to badly overpay for some piece of crap that won't help us in the postseason, because there is the sense among the fans/media/etc that Chiarelli needs to do something big
#27
Posted 07 February 2011 - 02:25 AM
#28
Posted 07 February 2011 - 08:38 AM
#29
Posted 07 February 2011 - 09:37 AM
My worry, though, is what everyone else's is. There are too many buyers, not enough sellers, and not enough good pieces on the block. Its a seller's market, and the Bruins have assets, and I'd like them not to give up all of them.
#30
Posted 07 February 2011 - 01:00 PM
Just a thought.
#31
Posted 07 February 2011 - 01:31 PM
I'm not totally against that type of move, but it is one I'd pull at 2:59 on 2/28 after all other options have been explored.
#32
Posted 07 February 2011 - 02:01 PM
Petteri Nokelainen was an overpay??Steve Montador disagrees.
#33
Posted 07 February 2011 - 02:02 PM
I just wanted to shit on Montador. God I hate him after that Carolina series.
#34
Posted 07 February 2011 - 02:34 PM
-Chiarelli brings back a piece of crap
-Chiarelli overpays for somebody good
I just don't see him overpaying for crap.
#35
Posted 07 February 2011 - 02:40 PM
#36
Posted 07 February 2011 - 02:54 PM
#37
Posted 07 February 2011 - 05:30 PM
There's a cheaper version of Regehr available in Chris Phillips.
I'm not totally against that type of move, but it is one I'd pull at 2:59 on 2/28 after all other options have been explored.
I would not be thrilled with that either. I think this is a deadline where the Bs need to be bold or stand pat. They have a deep roster and I'm not sure I see the point of a modest upgrade if it takes a chunk out of the system or the draft pick stock that could be used in a bigger splash type of deal in the offseason, when cap management is a bit less of a pressing issue. Bringing in Phillips (or Regehr or Brewer or the like) to sit out McQuaid would clearly be an upgrade, but overall, I don't see that being a huge key to extending a playoff run.
Pitkanen is still my deadline binky, but the Canes look like they'll be on the bubble until April, so I doubt he's moved. Darren Dreger had a snippet on TSN about the Blue Jackets on 2/3/11:
http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/dregerreport/
Blue Jackets general manager Scott Howson doesn't speak publicly about trade negotiations and won't comment on speculation a few of his key players may be in play.
However, Columbus goaltender Steve Mason (the 2009 NHL rookie of the year), young forward Jakub Voracek (selected seventh overall in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft) and 28-year-old defenceman Rostislav Klesla - the Blue Jackets' first ever draft pick (4th overall in 2000) are believed to be drawing trade interest.
The Blue Jackets' needs are many, although a top line centre and high quality defenceman are said to be on Howson's wish list
I'm not sure who in their right mind would want Steve Mason and the 2.9m he'll be owed starting next season, unless it's to balance out a salary or something, but if Voracek (pending RFA) is up for grabs, that'd be interesting. Not sure if the Bs fit in with their perceived needs though.
#38
Posted 07 February 2011 - 05:58 PM
I'm not sure who in their right mind would want Steve Mason and the 2.9m he'll be owed starting next season, unless it's to balance out a salary or something, but if Voracek (pending RFA) is up for grabs, that'd be interesting. Not sure if the Bs fit in with their perceived needs though.
It doesn't work now at the deadline, but I suspect Voracek won't be dealt at the deadline anyway. But if the Bruins do really like him, I could see something around Krejci for Voracek in the offseason.
I am not sure they will be building around Krejci moving forward, and he may get expensive next year (or at least another million above where he is now).
#39
Posted 08 February 2011 - 01:49 PM
HackswithHaggs Peter Chiarelli just told WEEI he'd consider trading their 1st round pick from TOR this year, and has had "internal discussions" on one deal
Twitter -
That's an interesting quote. Toronto seems pretty locked into that 5-6 spot in the draft, So the Bruins would probably be looking at either Murphy or Hamilton at that point in the draft. How much of an upgrade could the B's acquire with that pick and a couple of good prospects? I'd gladly deal that pick in the right package.
#40
Posted 08 February 2011 - 02:04 PM
I went to Fantasy Land and tried to imagine what it would take for the Bruins to acquire and re-sign Weber. His $4.5m AAV deal expires after this year and he'll be an RFA. To pry him loose from a contending team like Nashville would (imo) require a package like: Wheeler, Stuart, Sauve, and the Toronto 1st. The model I'm following is the package New Jersey surrendered for Kovalchuk: Bergfors, Oduya, Cormier, and their 1st. Weber's position, and RFA-to-be status almost covers the discrepancy in draft pick value, but the rest of the package is there: young forward with top 9 ability right now, bottom-pairing defenseman, and a forward with top-6 potential. It adds $650,000 to this year's cap and gives us the option of adding even more salary with Savard on LTIR.
I'd have no qualms whatsoever about making that move were we able to sign him to an extension before the trade - something like 8 years, $8m per. 2011-12:
Lucic - Krejci - Horton
Marchand ($2m) - Bergeron - Caron
XX - Seguin - XX
Paille - Campbell - Thornton
Arniel
Chara - Weber
Seidenberg - Kampfer
Ference - Boychuk
McQuaid
Thomas
Rask
Assuming: Savard on LTIR/retired, a $1m bonus overage, the elimination of the bonus cushion, and a $2.5m increase pushing the cap to $61.9m, that roster has $57,141,666.67 committed. The only slots they'd need to fill are 3rd line LW and RW, and I imagine they'd do that by making a $2-3m AAV FA signing and calling Joe Colborne ($1.1m).
Alright, back to reality. Weber's still not getting moved
#41
Posted 08 February 2011 - 02:05 PM
Hopefully by shopping that pick, Chia can make a pretty big splash.
#42
Posted 08 February 2011 - 02:14 PM
#43
Posted 08 February 2011 - 02:22 PM
Beside's Weber, who else could be available that would be worth that pick? The only other guy I can think of is Zach Parise, but it's probably unlikely that he's available. I don't think that pick would be on the table to rent Brad Richards (and I don't think Richards is going anywhere anyway).
What about Seabrook? Hawks are on the the outside looking in now, they could use a shake up and he is an RFA next year and they could be tight on the cap. I definitely would not hesistate to include that pick if Weber was involved, he is a stud.
#44
Posted 08 February 2011 - 02:49 PM
He isn't likely a building block for CBJ but could fit in nicely as a 3rd line center, 2nd line PP play for the B's.
#45
Posted 08 February 2011 - 02:53 PM
I actually just brought up his name in a separate conversation. I think he'd be a good fit on the Bruins.In the less sexier, more likely to be available dept. I would be interested to see what it would take to get RJ Umberger. He is a pretty steady 20+G 50+pt per year center in his prime. I don't see a lot of the Blues so I'd be lying if I said I knew much about his game but he has a reasonable cap hit at 3.75 and is signed through next season then a UFA.
He isn't likely a building block for CBJ but could fit in nicely as a 3rd line center, 2nd line PP play for the B's.
#46
Posted 08 February 2011 - 02:56 PM
Beside's Weber, who else could be available that would be worth that pick? The only other guy I can think of is Zach Parise, but it's probably unlikely that he's available. I don't think that pick would be on the table to rent Brad Richards (and I don't think Richards is going anywhere anyway).
I know you're just spitballing, but ESPN has had a rumor show up in their rumor page a few times this year referencing a potential Bruins-Devils trade for Parise. It goes on to state NJ would want the moon (deservedly), while the Bruins wouldn't make a move until they knew Parise could help them this year.
I don't think there is anyway it happens, but you're not the only one out there connecting the dots. Although, the thought of mikeford's head exploding when hearing about them trading Parise is enticing.
#47
Posted 08 February 2011 - 02:58 PM
Beside's Weber, who else could be available that would be worth that pick? The only other guy I can think of is Zach Parise, but it's probably unlikely that he's available. I don't think that pick would be on the table to rent Brad Richards (and I don't think Richards is going anywhere anyway).
I actually heard a rumor that the Devils might move Parise given his expiring contract and their current cap situation.
#48
Posted 08 February 2011 - 03:31 PM
Although they somehow just got off on a tangent on JD Drew, so proceed with caution.
#49
Posted 08 February 2011 - 03:43 PM
#50
Posted 08 February 2011 - 04:36 PM
Edited by SoxScout, 08 February 2011 - 04:38 PM.
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