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Tales from the GM Time Machine


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#51 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 01 February 2011 - 11:26 PM

1990 Simulation Results

Historically, the 1990 Red Sox went 88-74 (Pyth 85-77), winning the AL East by 2 games over the Toronto Blue Jays. The Red Sox went on to lose in the ALCS in 4 games to the Oakland A's.

100 Season Simulation Results

The Red Sox dominate again, with a record of 107.99-54.01, well ahead of 2nd place Toronto, at 87.92-74.09. Oddly enough, the Red Sox win the AL East 99 out of 100 times, and the winner that 100th time is...Milwaukee? The 99 division wins translate into 15 ALCS losses, 15 World Series losses, and 69 World Series wins. Compared to recent 100 season simulations, this is actually a sign that the Sox are falling back to the pack a bit.

Ellis Burks wins the 3rd most AL MVP awards, with 17. Roger Clemens dominates the Cy Young vote with 55 wins, followed by Greg Maddux at 15, with Saberhagen in 4th with 8 Cy Youngs. David Justice ties for 5th in the AL RoY vote, with 2 wins. Oddly enough, he is tied with Jeff Bagwell, who I won't call up yet.

Single Season Simulation Results

I'm including some notes/narrative as I get more in depth with the in-season moves.

I would just like to say that I have never heard of a MLB player missing games due to a "lost tooth". Ellis Burks missed 2 games with this injury.

Deviation - at one point, both Daulton and Fisk are injured. Tony Pena, John Marzano, and Rich Gedman were the only players who historically caught games for the 1990 Red Sox, and I have none of them. I am forced to call up Eric Wedge AND John Flaherty ahead of time. If either one of them got injured during this time...well, I have no idea what I would have done.

Darren Daulton loses his job to Carlton Fisk in mid-June. Greg Maddux smirks. Briefly, because Daulton wins it back in short order.

Tony Gwynn kept his AVG above .400 until mid-July.

Deviation - I pick up Jerry Reed as per history, but do not release him in August, as he happens to be the 2nd best reliever in the bullpen at that time.

Deviation - When both Jody Reed and Tim Naehring are injured, I run out of historical 1990 Red Sox SS options. John Valentin gets the early call, albeit for all of 1 game in Sep.

The Red Sox go 106-56 (Pyth 105-57), winning the AL East by 22 games over the Yankees. The postseason winning streak is broken at 27 straight wins, as the Texas Rangers put up a fight in the ALCS by winning Game 3. They also win Game 4. And Game 5. Then the series comes back to Fenway, and the Red Sox win in a 7-game thriller by outscoring Texas 20-5 in the final 2 games. Les Expos are the World Series opponent, and they also put up a fight, winning Games 3, 4, and 5 before the Red Sox win Games 6 and 7 at Fenway. 1990 is the 7th consecutive World Series title, and the 9th in the last 10 years.

Amusingly, despite the 8-0 Home, 0-6 Away split in the postseason, this squad had very little difference in home/away record, putting up a .679 mark at home, and .630 on the road. I suppose that's one way to go about Beating the Odds.

Awards:
Cy Young - Roger Clemens
ALCS MVP - Greg Maddux
World Series MVP - Ellis Burks

Posted Image

The Real 1990 Red Sox

Both Darren Daulton and Carlton Fisk were having awesome years through mid July, with Fisk winning the starting job back briefly by putting up an OPS around .930 compared to Daulton's .820. The crash started when I started Fisk, of course. Still, both are quite serviceable for catchers at the plate, and both are an upgrade over Tony Pena. I'm not convinced that the pitching staff agreed...but that's another issue.

Mike Greenwell fails to match his historical output, or to be an upgrade over Carlos Quintana. Ryne Sandberg, on the other hand, has another season above any OPS he ever produced historically. Jody Reed apparently talked smack about Mogul's mom, or something. That said, he still outhits 1990 Luis Rivera. Wade Boggs outdoes himself. David Justice is a disappointment on the order of nearly 130 points of OPS.

Ellis Burks...is one sweet center fielder. *MONTAGE* Sorry, I had to. A month-long rotator cuff injury is all that kept him from making a legitimate run at the AL MVP. Tony Gwynn helps carry the offense by besting himself by about 120 points of OPS, and is obviously a huge upgrade over Tom Brunansky. Dewey continues to enjoy quite the late-career renaissance, with almost 160 points of OPS over his real 1990 season. This single season sure makes ditching Dawson look like the best choice there.

The bench wasn't bad at all. Tim Naehring was a bit of a disappointment, and apparently was rated so low as a SS by Mogul that it kept trying to play WADE BOGGS AT SHORTSTOP whenever Jody Reed went down with an injury. The Reche Caldwell face made an appearance at my house. Fisk was actually the better catcher with the bat, partly thanks to rest. Ray Lankford wasn't great, but was good enough to hold the fort during Burks' month-long injury. Todd Benzinger was serviceable as the 1B backup. John Flaherty liked his anomalous callup just fine.

It's funny how Mogul seems to perpetually love some of my position players (Sandberg, Burks), and absolutely loathe others (Jody Reed, Alabama Alum Butch Hobson back in the 70s).

The starting pitching was...unimpressive. 3/5 of the rotation actually being below average was completely unforeseen. The good news is that Roger Clemens was absolutely ridiculous, and Greg Maddux was good enough to make for a 1-2 punch. Those losing streaks starting in games 3/4 of the playoff series sure start to make sense now, don't they? Comparing ERA to DICE, it appears that Saberhagen was ridiculously unlucky, and Cone and Tudor were both somewhat unlucky. On the other hand...there may have been defensive issues. David Justice was not highly rated in the field, Jody Reed is no Ozzie Smith, Mike Greenwell is Mike Greenwell no matter where I try to hide him, and Ellis Burks missed a fair number of games. I think there was a combination of poor performance, poor luck, and questionable defensive support at play here.

So, the bullpen picture was not nearly as rosy as it looks from this stat sheet. Out of the original 7 in the bullpen, 5 had pitched themselves out of jobs by May. Or, they would have if I had more than 3 replacements available, so Eckersley got a chance to turn things around, and he took advantage. The comeback by Eckersley, callup of Daryl Irvine, and midseason acquisitions of Joe Hesketh and Jerry Reed solidified the bullpen for the postseason run. Thank goodness for baseball-reference, because I only noticed Irvine by going down the list of guys who pitched out of desperation, and Jerry Reed was a "who the hell?" from the transactions list. Larry Andersen being a preseason trade for Andre Dawson instead of a midseason trade for Jeff Bagwell was also a huge factor here, as quite literally, he and Lee Smith were the only consistent relievers from Opening Day to the World Series Parade. Jeff Gray, Tom Gordon, Tom Bolton, Dana Kiecker, Mike Rochford, and John Leister all sucked for over 10 innings in relief work.

Nobody should cry a river over that group, of course, but by the end of the season, Fisk, Daulton, and Gwynn were all giving back some of their early-season awesomeness, the pitching staff was 2 Aces and 3 WTF, and Ellis Burks was out for a month, so the bullpen ended up being way more significant than it really should have been, or even appears to be in a retrospective analysis of the numbers. Really, it's a testament to the bullpen that the pitching staff was just good enough to win 2 7-game postseason series.

For the first time, the Red Sox lead the AL in neither Runs Scored nor Runs Allowed. The team leads the league in AVG and OBP.

Individual League Leaders:

AVG - Tony Gwynn
Runs - Ryne Sandberg
Hits - Tony Gwynn
Wins - Roger Clemens
ERA - Roger Clemens (first among starters, one reliever had a lower ERA)
Saves - Lee Smith
WHIP - Roger Clemens
CG - Roger Clemens
SHO - Roger Clemens
IP - Roger Clemens
OPS Allowed - Lee Smith
DICE - Roger Clemens
AVG Allowed - Lee Smith

Gee, do you think two pitchers carried my team?

1991 Roster Setup will be next.

#52 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 03 February 2011 - 10:28 PM

1991 Roster Setup

1991 Offseason Moves Post

1991 Season Post

Draft Picks to Add

Mike Mussina
Ray Durham
Andy Pettitte
Greg McMichael
Jim Edmonds
Tim Wakefield
Ray Lankford
Tom Gordon
David Justice
Greg Maddux
Bret Saberhagen
David Cone
Tony Gwynn
Darren Daulton
Ryne Sandberg

Players to Return

Jeff Bagwell from Astros
Lee Smith from Cardinals for Tom Brunansky
Carlton Fisk from White Sox
Dennis Eckersley from A's
Dwight Evans from Orioles

Players to Remove

John Dopson and Luis Rivera to Montreal Expos (No Spike Owen to trade for them) - I rather wish I had thought of Quinones here, maybe I just substitute him instead, but oh well. I live with my mistake in this case.
Release John Marzano (Never Drafted)
Retire Rick Sutcliffe (Retires due to injury as per my 1982 post)
Retire Oil Can Boyd (Dead)
Release Bob Zupcic (Never Drafted)
Release Jeff Reardon (Not signed)
Release Tony Pena (Not signed)
Release Greg Harris (Not signed)
Release Dennis Lamp (Not signed)
Release Mike Greenwell (Free Agency)
Release Carlos Quintana (Released out of sheer benevolence, apparently)
Release Matt Young (Not Signed)
Release Danny Darwin (Not Signed)
Release Jack Clark (Not Signed)
Mike Gardiner to Mariners (No Rob Murphy to trade for him)

Players to Move Around League

Brady Anderson from Orioles to Cubs (Lee Smith Trade)
Ozzie Smith from Cardinals to Padres
Andre Dawson to Houston Astros

Players to Modify

Greg Maddux is set to use Carlton Fisk as his personal catcher.
Jody Reed converted from 2B to SS.

Trade Market Moves

None

Deviations

Shockingly, Mogul suggests an alternate OF/DH alignment out of my mixture of Burks, Gwynn, Justice, Lankford, and Evans. Instead of Evans at DH, Justice in RF, Burks in CF, Gwynn in LF, and Lankford backing up, Gwynn is in RF, Lankford is in LF, Justice is the DH, and Evans is on the bench. The key to my decision here is my "games played" reasoning in my original 1991 offseason post. Evans actually did play the fewest games out of the 5, so I'm ok with Evans being the 5th man here. Justice is apparently a butcher in RF according to Mogul, hence the DH duty. I accept the Mogul alignment, but I bump up the frequency of defensive replacements/pinch hitting to try to get Mogul to use the bench more during non-injury periods. There really should be a "rest players often" slider, but oh well.

In the pitching staff, Mogul also wants a fairly significant change, primarily due to its rating of Tom Gordon as a reliever only. Also, it believes that Mike Mussina is ready at the start of the season, as opposed to midseason. Since Gordon really was more of a reliever than a starter in 1991, and Mike Mussina really did pitch meaningful innings as a starter in 1991, I accept this as an arrangement that might actually be more reasonable than my "Make Gordon a starter who just vanishes when Mussina needs his cup of coffee" original idea.

On the bench, Mogul prefers Steve Lyons to Mo Vaughn as the 1B backup. Gee, let me think about that one...Lyons goes down for Vaughn. Mogul also prefers Kevin Romine as the 5th bench player over Scott Cooper. In an effort to make sure that Evans gets ALL of the spare OF/DH duty that Mogul will allocate during simulation time, I send down Romine for Cooper.

The Culling is next

#53 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 03 February 2011 - 11:27 PM

1991 Posted Image

Orlando Hernandez (1998)
Hideo Nomo (1995)
Kazuhiro Sasaki (1999)
Mike Cather (1993)
Jon Lieber (1992)
Ricardo Rincon (1997) - Purchased from Mexican League
Rich Croushore (1993)
Takashi Saito (2006)
Mark Loretta (1993)
Billy Wagner (1993)
Rich Aurilia (1992)
Brendan Donnelly (1992)
Jason Giambi (1992)
Ryan Karp (1992)
Phil Nevin (1992)
Scott Sullivan (1993)
John Dettmer (1992)
Shawn Green (1991) - Haven't drafted him yet
Manny Ramirez (1991) - OD Roster
Jay Payton (1994) - I admit to enjoying this one
Raul Ibanez (1992)
Greg Norton (1993)
Jay Witasick (1993)
Brad Radke (1991) - Haven't drafted him yet
Jason Varitek (1994)
Steve Kline (1993)
Paul LoDuca (1993)
Keith Foulke (1994)
Jeff Zimmerman (1998) - Purchased from Canada
Kelly Wunsch (1993)
Akinori Otsuka (2003)
Jamie Brewington (1992)
Jason Maxwell (1993)
Bill Mueller (1993)

1991 Simulation Results are next

#54 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 04 February 2011 - 08:35 PM

Deviation - I forgot to have Greenwell sign with the Tigers, instead of just cutting him loose. Stupid oversight on my part. I didn't notice this until after all simulations were completed.

1991 Simulation Results

Historically, the 1991 Red Sox went 84-78 (Pyth 83-79), finishing 2nd in the AL East, 7 games behind the Toronto Blue Jays.

100 Season Simulation Results

The Red Sox finish at 110.86-51.14, once again smashing the 2nd place Blue Jays and their 87.44-74.56 mark. The AL East is won every time. There are 4 ALCS losses, 19 World Series losses, and 77 World Series wins. The closest competition is the LA Dodgers, with 12.

Ellis Burks finishes 4th in AL MVPs, with 5. Ken Griffey Jr rules 1st with 46. Roger Clemens (37) and Greg Maddux (29) go 1-2 in AL Cy Young wins. David Cone and Bret Saberhagen tie for 4th behind Randy Johnson, at 6 each. Jeff Bagwell (39) leads the pack for AL Rookie of the Year, with Ray Lankford (12) in 3rd. Greg Maddux hurls 1 perfect game.

Single Season Simulation Results

Dennis Eckersley just always starts slowly. He keeps pitching himself out of the bullpen by Mid-May.

At the start of June, David Justice loses the DH job to Dwight Evans.

Eckersley returns following Jeff Gray's stroke on July 31.

Ray Lankford ends up outplaying Burks defensively in CF, shifting Burks over to LF.

The Red Sox finish at 119-43 (Pyth 116-46), winning the AL East by 28 games over the Brewers. The Red Sox then face the White Sox in the ALCS, and triumph in 5 games. The Reds are the opponent in the World Series.

Ray Lankford is injured in Game 1 of the World Series, missing the rest of the series and forcing David Justice into action.

The Red Sox go on to win the Series in 5 games. This whole "the best team doesn't always win in baseball" seems to not apply at a certain level of superior talent, as this now makes 8 straight titles, and 10 of 11.

Awards:

Cy Young: Roger Clemens
Rookie of the Year: Jeff Bagwell
P Gold Glove: Greg Maddux
1B Gold Glove: Jeff Bagwell
OF Gold Glove: Tony Gwynn
ALCS MVP: Wade Boggs
World Series MVP: David Justice - Redemption!

Posted Image

The 1991 Red Sox of History

This is as close to perfect as any roster can get, in terms of performance and health, both among the starting 9 and the pitching staff.

Carlton Fisk actually tailed off in September, leading to an OPS spread between him and Daulton that I just overlooked going into October. He's still better than Tony Pena was. Jeff Bagwell likes Fenway, trumping his original 1991 Astrodome output, and obviously surpassing Carlos Quintana. Ryne Sandberg falls short of his real 1991 numbers, but is still a significant upgrade over Jody Reed. Jody Reed finally gets close to aligned with his real output, and is superior to Luis Rivera's 1991 season. Wade Boggs doesn't quite match his original numbers, but was still quite good. Ellis Burks just keeps on destroying his real numbers (and Mike Greenwell's), apparently keeping him away from Mike Greenwell in the OF was a great idea! Ray Lankford greatly exceeds expectations, by over 100 points of OPS, and with good defense. Tony Gwynn outdoes himself again, vastly surpassing Tom Brunansky. Dwight Evans has an impressive swan song, earning his DH job back, surpassing his real 1991 numbers, and roughly matching Jack Clark's contributions at DH for the 1991 Red Sox.

In other words, that's an upgrade at 7/9 positions, and the two guys who weren't upgrades still OPSed over 800. Oh, and no starter played in fewer than 130 games.

Even the bench was pretty spectacular. David Justice was the only catastrophic underachiever, but he made up for it with his World Series line of 364/462/727. Mo Vaughn, Darren Daulton, and Tim Naehring all outdid themselves. Scott Cooper was worthless, but Boggs only missed 3 games, so that was hardly a major problem.

Aside from Mogul putting Jeff Gray in the starting pitching stat section for no reason whatsoever, you can see why this team excelled. There were a total of 5 starts that did not go to the starting 5, and all went to Tom Bolton. Mussina only ended up just barely exceeding his historical IP total, making the Tom Gordon shift to the bullpen feasible, thanks to the ridiculous endurance of the Top 4. Roger Clemens actually undershot his real 1991 a bit, but still won the Cy Young. Greg Maddux matched his 1991 NL ERA within 0.01, which is great. David Cone surpassed his 1991 by a small amount, and Bret Saberhagen equalled himself with more IP. Mussina also ended up right on the mark, making this the first time that the Top 5 in the rotation were all at least as good in the simulation as they were historically. Combine that with a healthy, effective offense, and you have a slaughter on your hands.

In the bullpen, you can see the one major disappointment - Dennis Eckersley. Fortunately, Lee Smith (as usual), Tom Gordon (finally), and Tony Fossas (huh?) were all great, and made games 6-inning affairs. Feel free to take a peek at that rotation one more time. Bolton was actually better in the bullpen than his stat line indicates, as most of his ERA abuse came during his 5 starts.

In short, if you only have 3 underperformers on your entire team, 2 of them are in the bullpen, and 1 is your 5th OFer, you're going to be ok. Plus, Justice gets a pass for his World Series MVP. So, this team was probably the closest to the flawless, healthy unit that we will see in this whole exercise. I can't say that I saw this coming, but I think two things were key - the early peak phenomenon benefiting Mike Mussina, and Ray Lankford over David Justice in the OF. Pitchers suddenly started not having "unlucky" ERAs once David Justice was taken out of the OF, although I will grant that we are working with a sample size of two seasons here. Bagwell over Greenwell at 1B probably helps, too. I may have underestimated the defensive upgrades here.

The Red Sox led the AL in Runs Allowed, AVG, OBP, ERA, K/9, and Fielding Percentage.

Individual Leaders:

Runs: Ray Lankford
Hits: Wade Boggs
Wins: Roger Clemens and Bret Saberhagen (tied)
Saves: Lee Smith
WHIP: Lee Smith
Shutouts: David Cone (tied)
IP: David Cone
OPS Against: Lee Smith
AVG Against: Tom Gordon

1992 Roster Setup is next.

#55 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 04 February 2011 - 11:36 PM

1992 Roster Moves

1992 Offseason Moves Post

1992 Season Post

Draft Picks to Add

Brad Radke
Derek Lowe
Shawn Green
Mike Mussina
Ray Durham
Andy Pettitte
Greg McMichael
Jim Edmonds
Tim Wakefield
Ray Lankford
Tom Gordon
David Justice
Greg Maddux
Bret Saberhagen
Tony Gwynn
Darren Daulton
Ryne Sandberg

Players to Return

Jeff Bagwell from Astros
Lee Smith from Cardinals for Tom Brunansky
Dennis Eckersley from A's

Players to Remove

John Dopson and Luis Rivera to Montreal Expos (No Spike Owen to trade for them) - I rather wish I had thought of Quinones here, maybe I just substitute him instead, but oh well. I live with my mistake in this case.
Release John Marzano (Never Drafted)
Retire Rick Sutcliffe (Retires due to injury as per my 1982 post)
Release Bob Zupcic (Never Drafted)
Release Jeff Reardon (Not signed)
Release Tony Pena (Not signed)
Release Greg Harris (Not signed)
Mike Greenwell to Detroit Tigers (Signed as FA)
Release Carlos Quintana (Released out of sheer benevolence, apparently)
Release Matt Young (Not Signed)
Release Danny Darwin (Not Signed)
Release Jack Clark (Not Signed)
Mike Gardiner to Mariners (No Rob Murphy to trade for him)
Release Dana Keicker (Free Agency)
Release Frank Viola (Not Signed)

Players to Move Around League

Brady Anderson from Orioles to Cubs (Lee Smith Trade)
Ozzie Smith from Cardinals to Padres
Andre Dawson to Houston Astros
David Cone from Mets to Royals

Players to Modify

Greg Maddux set to use John Flaherty as personal catcher.
Jody Reed converted from 2B to SS.

Trade Market Moves

None

Deviations

So, I have a gigantic problem in the OF/DH that I didn't have to deal with when I had real games played to fall back on. Here's the money quote from my roster setup post.

As usual, the OF/DH situation requires some explanation. Mo Vaughn replaces Dwight Evans at DH, but does not quite get full-time PAs yet. Gwynn remains in LF. Burks remains in CF. Justice remains in RF. Lankford remains in need of playing time, and might actually be the best OFer on the team in 1992. The problem is that none of my starters will take too kindly to being benched. This looks like an Ellsbury in 2008 type situation, so let's see how the games played break down.

Vaughn (DH) - 113
Gwynn (LF) - 128
Burks (CF) - 66
Justice (RF) - 144
Lankford (OF) - 153

I'm not 100% certain why Burks plays so few games, presumably he is injured. I may or may not have prevented this injury by keeping Mike Greenwell far away from him at 1B over the years, if it was somehow a side effect of their collision in 1989. That said, boy is that one convenient injury, so I am running with it. Morgan and I pull Lankford aside in Spring Training and make it crystal clear that Ellis Burks will not be back after the 1992 season, and the CF job will be his, no matter what happens in 1992. This carries a risk of Lankford slacking off, but he has been fighting for playing time to prove himself worthy among the stars in my OF, so I gamble that he will respond well. Lankford plays CF when Burks goes down, gives Burks a day off regularly before the injury, and moves to LF on Vaughn's days off, with Gwynn moving to DH. Opposing batters despair at their chances of dropping hits in against a Lankford-Burks-Justice OF defense.


Well, I don't get to do that this time, because nobody starts the season hurt. Mogul wants to bench Mo Vaughn in favor of Justice-Lankford-Gwynn with Burks at DH. Based on historical production in 1992, the least valuable bat is that of Burks. Based on every simulation that has included him so far, Ellis Burks is God. Based on my original "start of season" plan, when I knew Burks would be hurt, the starting alignment was Gwynn-Burks-Justice with Mo at DH and Lankford on the bench. From a clubhouse standpoint, benching either of Burks or Gwynn are out of the question, so it's down to Lankford, Justice, and Vaughn. Justice is no longer rated as The Black Death in the OF, so there's no obvious "feh, you sit" candidate.

I decide to start the season with Justice-Burks-Gwynn, with Vaughn at DH. Lankford plays immediately in the case of any injury, or in a very liberal case of offensive production measurements. I won't be waiting until June 1 to sit either Justice or Burks if they start out slow and/or Lankford tears it up. Basically, I think I have to treat this as a running competition.

On the bench, there are two deviations:
- Scott Cooper is nowhere to be found, as both Tim Naehring and John Valentin are rated as better 3B options, presumably due to Mogul taking their later career positions into account in their rating system. I need to get Valentin ABs, and his 2B rating is garbage compared to Naehring's, so I live with this.
- Some guy named Herm Winningham is the 5th OFer over Phil Plantier. I call up Plantier and send down Winningham.

In the rotation, Mogul wants Andy Pettitte as the 5th starter, just a wee bit ahead of schedule. As in 3 full seasons ahead. I send Pettitte down and call Tim Wakefield up. Based on previous single season simulations, I don't think my 5th starter is likely to get many more IP than Wakefield did historically in 1992, barring injury. Plus, Mogul views Joe Hesketh only as a reliever, which he probably should be, and I'm not inclined to edit Hesketh when I planned to use Wakefield at least some of the time anyway.

In the bullpen, Derek Lowe is called up way too early as well. Lowe goes down, Paul Quantrill comes up. Hesketh is the long man.

The Culling is next.

#56 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 05 February 2011 - 09:28 AM

1992 Posted Image

Orlando Hernandez (1998)
Hideo Nomo (1995)
Kazuhiro Sasaki (1999)
Mike Cather (1993)
Jon Lieber (1992) - OD Roster
Ricardo Rincon (1997) - Purchased from Mexican League
Rich Croushore (1993)
Takashi Saito (2006)
Mark Loretta (1993)
Billy Wagner (1993)
Brendan Donnelly (1992) - OD Roster
Jason Giambi (1992) - Haven't drafted him yet
Phil Nevin (1992) - OD Roster
Scott Sullivan (1993)
Jay Payton (1994)
Greg Norton (1993)
Jay Witasick (1993)
Jason Varitek (1994)
Steve Kline (1993)
Paul LoDuca (1993)
Keith Foulke (1994)
Jeff Zimmerman (1998) - Purchased from Canada
Kelly Wunsch (1993)
Akinori Otsuka (2003)
Jason Maxwell (1993)
Bill Mueller (1993)
Johnny Damon (1992) - Haven't drafted him yet
Geoff Blum (1994)
Nomar Garciaparra (1994)
Chan Ho Park (1994)
Ichiro Susuki (2001)
Octavio Dotel (1993)
Bartolo Colon (1993)
Mike Jerzembeck (1993)
Brian Tollberg (1995)

1992 Simulation Results are next.

#57 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 05 February 2011 - 02:34 PM

1992 Simulation Results

Historically, the 1992 Red Sox went 73-89 (Pyth 73-89), finishing 7th in the AL East, 23 games behind the Toronto Blue Jays.

100 Season Simulation Results

The Red Sox are still dominant, averaging a 110.61-51.40 record. Toronto at least breaks the 90-win mark at 91.01-71.00. The Red Sox win the AL East 99 times, lose in the ALCS 10 times, lose in the World Series 9 times, and win the World Series 80 times. The next most frequent winner is the LA Dodgers at 7 World Series wins.

Individually, Jeff Bagwell is 2nd to Ken Griffey, Jr in the AL MVP race, with 21 wins to Griffey's 34. Greg Maddux (42), Roger Clemens (29), Bret Saberhagen (13), and Mike Mussina (5) go 1-2-3-5 in the Cy Young Award wins, with only Randy Johnson's 7 at 4th breaking up the parade. Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens each get a perfect game.

Single Season Simulation Results

At the start of May, Ellis Burks is the weaker offensive player of the Burks-Vaughn pairing, with Ray Lankford having an insufficient sample size of playing time to use for comparison. As such, Lankford gets the CF job for May, at which point it will become an outright "play the hot hand" situation from June 1 onward.

Burks goes back in for Lankford at the start of June. Lee Smith loses the primary closing role to Dennis Eckersley in June, but reclaims it in August.

To start July, Lankford gets back into the lineup at Mo Vaughn's expense. Vaughn remains the odd man out in August and most of September, before booting Burks again just before the playoffs.

The Red Sox finish at 109-53 (Pyth 110-52), winning the AL East by 16 games over the Toronto Blue Jays. The ALCS opponent is the Seattle Mariners, which is something of a shock given the team's historical 64-98 record that year. Mogul's "hit the peak early" progression makes Edgar Martinez, Ken Griffey, Jr. and Randy Johnson a formidable core, so I expect to see them a couple more times. Luckily, Roger Clemens outduels Johnson twice, and the Red Sox win the ALCS in 5 games. The Reds are once again the World Series opponent, and they fall in 5 games again.

9 straight, 11-of-12, etc.. This should get more interesting as I experience more roster churn later in the 90s.

Awards:

Cy Young: Roger Clemens
ALCS MVP: Jeff Bagwell
World Series MVP: David Justice - back to back!

Posted Image

The Original 1992 Red Sox

Another freakishly healthy season for the starting 9, with the only lineup churn being Burks-Lankford-Vaughn and Daulton/Flaherty.

Darren Daulton is merely excellent, compared to his awesome original 1992 season. Of course, the alternative was Tony Pena, so this is still a 200+ OPS upgrade. Jeff Bagwell is awesome ahead of schedule, even though he loses the AL MVP to another 50+ HR season from Griffey. Ryne Sandberg is starting to slow down, underperforming himself by a wide margin (over 130 OPS), but still improving upon Jody Reed's 1992 offering. Reed is better than he originally was, and is a large upgrade over Luis Rivera. Wade Boggs is very good and avoids his historical down season. David Justice finally does what he is capable of, and actually exceeds his original output, nevermind that of Billy Hatcher. Ray Lankford falls far short of his 1992 numbers, but is still an upgrade over Bob Zupcic. Tony Gwynn just keeps on going, outdoing Bruno and his own 1992 season. Ellis Burks, even while healthy, was not very effective and only barely exceeds his real 1992 season.

On the bench, Mo Vaughn came on in September, and was finally able to get some playing time from a healthy Ellis Burks. It's unfortunate that it took such a better season than his real numbers to get him into the lineup, but 88 games isn't too bad for a developing player. John Flaherty hit like a bench player, which is still better than most backup catchers. Tim Naehring went nuts in very limited action, due to the health of the rest of the IF. Phil Plantier was better in less action, and John Valentin was a complete non-entity between the health of the lineup, his own performance, and Naehring's output/

In the rotation, the league simply has no answer to the Clemens-Maddux combo. Clemens wins the Cy Young even without matching his original ERA. Maddux does not quite meet his ridiculous real 1992 mark, but is still dominant. Mike Mussina was essentially league average instead of excellent, while Saberhagen essentially matched his 1992 ERA in many, many more IP. Most importantly, all 4 primary starters stayed healthy, keeping the Wakefield-Turner-Hesketh-Bolton dreck out of the rotation. Even with a 5-man rotation setting, the endurance of the Top 4 just led to them getting the ball constantly.

In the bullpen, it was The Three Amigos, Ken Ryan, and crap. Fortunately, with a healthy rotation, there were not too many innings for the bullpen out of the best 4 relievers, and those 4 were extremely good.

The Red Sox led the AL in Runs Scored, Runs Allowed, AVG, OBP, ERA, and Fielding Percentage (3-way tie with OAK and SEA).

Individual Leaders:

Hits: Tony Gwynn
Triples: Ryne Sandberg (ok, maybe "slow down" was not the right phrase there...)
Wins: Roger Clemens
CG: Greg Maddux
SHO: Greg Maddux
IP: Roger Clemens

I don't think Mogul does fielding stats correctly, since Cecil Fielder leads the league in Range Factor at LF, CF, and RF. :c070:

1993 Roster Setup is next.

#58 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 05 February 2011 - 05:19 PM

1993 Roster Moves

1993 Preseason Post

1993 Season Post

Draft Picks to Add

Johnny Damon
Jason Giambi
Brad Radke
Derek Lowe
Shawn Green
Mike Mussina
Ray Durham
Andy Pettitte
Greg McMichael
Jim Edmonds
Tim Wakefield
Ray Lankford
Tom Gordon
David Justice
Greg Maddux
Bret Saberhagen
Tony Gwynn
Darren Daulton
Ryne Sandberg

Players to Return

Jeff Bagwell from Astros
Lee Smith from Cardinals
Wade Boggs from Yankees
Phil Plantier from Padres for Jose Melendez

Players to Remove

John Dopson and Luis Rivera to Montreal Expos (No Spike Owen to trade for them) - I rather wish I had thought of Quinones here, maybe I just substitute him instead, but oh well. I live with my mistake in this case.
Retire Rick Sutcliffe (Retires due to injury as per my 1982 post)
Release Bob Zupcic (Never Drafted)
Release Tony Pena (Not signed)
Release Greg Harris (Not signed)
Mike Greenwell to Detroit Tigers (Signed as FA)
Release Carlos Quintana (Released out of sheer benevolence, apparently)
Release Danny Darwin (Not Signed)
Release Frank Viola (Not Signed)
Release Andre Dawson (Not Signed)
Release Billy Hatcher (Not Signed)
Release Tony Fossas (Not Signed)
Release Joe Hesketh (Not Retained)
Release Jeff Russell (Not Signed)
Ivan Calderon to Expos (Not Traded For)
Release Scott Fletcher (Not Signed)

Players to Move Around League

Brady Anderson from Orioles to Cubs (Lee Smith Trade)
Ozzie Smith from Cardinals to Padres

Players to Modify

Greg Maddux set to use John Flaherty as personal catcher.

Trade Market Moves

None

Deviations

Gwynn and Justice are flipped in the OF. This doesn't bother me.

On the bench, Steve Lyons and Ernest Riles are up over Scott Cooper and Phil Plantier. I correct this. Plantier will get to battle Jim Edmonds for bench/injury time, but will be given precedence.

In the rotation, Tim Wakefield is set as the 5th starter over Tom Gordon, who is rated strictly as a reliever. Since I don't actually know whether or not Wakefield will suck, and Gordon really probably should be a reliever, I live with this.

In the bullpen, Brad Radke is called up too early to be the last reliever over Ken Ryan. Not happening.

I actually have time to do it all in one post so, it's time for

Posted Image

Orlando Hernandez (1998)
Hideo Nomo (1995)
Kazuhiro Sasaki (1999)
Ricardo Rincon (1997) - Purchased from Mexican League
Takashi Saito (2006)
Billy Wagner (1993) - OD Roster
Jay Payton (1994)
Jason Varitek (1994)
Keith Foulke (1994)
Jeff Zimmerman (1998) - Purchased from Canada
Akinori Otsuka (2003)
Geoff Blum (1994)
Nomar Garciaparra (1994)
Chan Ho Park (1994)
Ichiro Susuki (2001)
Brian Tollberg (1995)
Doug Mientkiewicz (1995) - His b-ref page names "Eyechart" as his official nickname. Cool.
Matt Morris (1995)
Joe Nathan (1995)
Hideki Matsui (2002)
Chad Bradford (1996)
Matt Clement (1993) - OD Roster
Geoff Jenkins (1995)
Jose Rosado (1994)
Jarrod Washburn (1995)
Kevin Millwood (1993) - Haven't drafted him yet
Joe Nelson (1996)
Scott MacRae (1995)
Jermaine Dye (1993) - Haven't drafted him yet
Casey Blake (1996)
Todd Helton (1995)
Justin Speier (1995)
Bob Howry (1994)
Mike Lowell (1995)

1993 Simulation Results are next

#59 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 06 February 2011 - 12:07 AM

1993 Simulation Results

Historically, the 1993 Red Sox finished 80-82 (Pyth 80-82), finishing 5th in the AL East, 15 games behind the Toronto Blue Jays.

100 Season Simulation Results

More of the same is expected in 1993. 110.27-51.74 is the average record, with surprising Cleveland coming in 2nd at 86.34-75.67. The reason for that becomes apparent shortly. The AL East is won every time, leading to 15 ACLS losses, 21 World Series losses, and 64 World Series wins.

Jeff Bagwell has the 2nd most AL MVP awards at 27. Mo Vaughn ties for third with 10. Clemens, Maddux, Mussina, and Saberhagen go 1-3-4-5 this time for the Cy Young Award, with 34, 17, 16, and 4 awards apiece. Want to know why Cleveland does unexpectedly well in the AL East? 95 of the 100 AL Rookie of the Year Awards go to a gentleman by the name of Manny Ramirez. Roger Clemens gets 1 perfect game.

Single Season Simulation Results

By June, Phil Plantier has shown that part time play does not seem to be working out for him, and loses his backup corner OF role to Shawn Green. Neither Green nor Plantier can play CF, so Edmonds sticks around even though he's nearly as bad as Plantier.

Lee Smith loses the closer's job to Tom Gordon in June. He figures something out while setting up Gordon, and reclaims his previous role before the trade deadline in July.

The Red Sox finish at 119-43 (Pyth 114-48), winning the AL East by 26 games over the 93-win Indians. I'd just like to say that it's a good thing they can't pitch, since Peak Albert Belle + Accelerated Manny + Accelerated Thome = PAIN. The Oakland A's go quietly in the ALCS, and are swept aside. Not surprisingly, the 1993 San Francisco Giants do rather well without David Justice, Greg Maddux, or Greg McMichael on the Braves, and face my Red Sox in the World Series.

Wade Boggs goes down in game 1, and misses the rest of the series. There will be no heroics from his backup, as Scott Cooper posts an OPS lower than the career line of Kevin Cash. That is not a joke. The Giants take the first two games, both by 1 run. The Red Sox win game 3, and I figure normalcy has been restored. Then the Giants win Game 4...by 1 run. 8-7, 7-6, and 7-6 are the losses, btw. Luckily, the ship rights itself and the Red Sox come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series...AGAIN.

Awards:

Having won all but 1 Cy Young awards since 1984 (Greg Maddux won in 1987), Clemens has his streak of 5 straight Cy Youngs (9 in a row for him and Maddux put together) broken by Randy Johnson.

P Gold Glove: Greg Maddux
ALCS MVP: Tony Gwynn
World Series MVP: John Valentin

Posted Image

The Real 1993 Team

A more normal injury frequency returns in 1993, after the entire team was apparently made of Teflon for the 1991-1992 seasons.

Darren Daulton fails to bring either of his awesome seasons to Boston, but was still quite good for a catcher at the plate, and was still two orders of magnitude better than Tony Pena. Jeff Bagwell is once again more awesome than he was historically, and once again is left only with a Ken Griffey Jr. Voodoo Doll where an AL MVP Award might go in his home. Ryne Sandberg actually matches his injury issues from his real 1993, but vastly outperforms himself (and Scott Fletcher) when he is actually on the field. John Valentin doesn't quite match himself, but was good enough for a SS. Wade Boggs is healthy (OH THANK GOD), and has a vastly superior year to his real 1993 campaign for the Yankees. David Justice, like Sandberg, misses time but outdoes himself when he does play, and is a significant upgrade on Mike Greenwell. Ray Lankford is excellent, taking a few victory laps around his historical self and Billy Hatcher. Tony Gwynn plays more, and hits less than he should have in 1993, but he certainly beats Carlos Quintana. Mo Vaughn matches his 1993 campaign, but he kicks Andre Dawson's carcass out the door in the process.

When you only have two starters with an OPS under .800, it's a great lineup. Even more so when those two are the C and SS.

The good news on the bench is that everybody was pretty good except for the two guys that were supposed to get more playing time. Scott Cooper had no flexibility due to the health of Boggs, but Phil Plantier was so abysmal when Justice suffered his first injury that I could not justify keeping him in the lineup over Shawn Green when the next Justice injury came along. I certainly can't complain about what Flaherty, Green, and Naehring did with their work in limited action. Edmonds was a disappointment, so it's fortunate that it was a corner OF who was injured instead of Lankford. I have no idea who Ernest Riles is, but I liked his work here.

In the rotation, Tim Wakefield was below average, but not a gaping chest wound of suck, and that was all that I needed him to be. Saberhagen missed enough starts to give Wakefield a decent number of starts. Roger Clemens completely avoids his outlier, miserable historical 1993 season, and was excellent. Mike Mussina also avoids a historical disappointing season. Greg Maddux does not match his own standards, but was still quite good. Saberhagen was less effective, but in more IP than his real 1993 season, which is fine given the depth issues I was staring at in the face. Wakefield roughly matches his real innings, but performs much better.

The bullpen was very good once Lee Smith found himself in the 2nd half. Sticking with Smith through a rough period paid off in the end. If Eckersley was still around, he might not have been given the benefit of the doubt. On the other hand, ditching Ken Ryan and Paul Quantrill early on brought boosts in the forms of Nate Minchey and Cory Bailey as well, so I guess those were just a lucky combination of moves.

The Red Sox led the AL in Runs Scored, Runs Allowed, AVG, OBP, SLG, and ERA.

AVG: Wade Boggs
Runs: Ray Lankford
Hits: Tony Gwynn
2B: Tony Gwynn
Wins: Mike Mussina (tied)

Pretty much every other pitching category reads "Randy Johnson", who tied Mussina for Wins, and threw 257 IP of 1.99 ERA ball. In 1993 in the AL. Yeah, that's a good Cy Young choice.

1994 Roster Setup will be next.

#60 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 06 February 2011 - 12:50 PM

1993 Deviation

I forgot to release Aaron Sele, forgetting that he was a 1st round pick in 1991 that I no longer made. Those were 12 fraudulent innings pitched! :(

1994 Roster Moves

1994 Offseason Post

1994 Season Thread

Draft Picks/Amateur FA Signings to Add

Scott Rolen
Kevin Millwood
Jermaine Dye
Johnny Damon
Jason Giambi
Brad Radke
Derek Lowe
Shawn Green
Mike Mussina
Ray Durham
Andy Pettitte
Greg McMichael
Jim Edmonds
Tim Wakefield
Ray Lankford
David Justice
Greg Maddux
Bret Saberhagen
Tony Gwynn
Darren Daulton

Players to Return

Jeff Bagwell from Astros
Wade Boggs from Yankees
Phil Plantier from Padres for Jose Melendez
John Flaherty from Tigers for Rich Rowland
Glenn Murray from Phillies

Players to Remove

Retire Rick Sutcliffe (Retires due to injury as per my 1982 post)
Release Bob Zupcic (Never Drafted)
Release Greg Harris (Not signed)
Mike Greenwell to Detroit Tigers (Signed as FA)
Release Danny Darwin (Not Signed)
Release Frank Viola (Not Signed)
Release Andre Dawson (Not Signed)
Release Billy Hatcher (Not Signed)
Release Tony Fossas (Not Signed)
Release Joe Hesketh (Not Retained)
Release Jeff Russell (Not Signed)
Release Scott Fletcher (Not Signed)
Release Otis Nixon (Not Signed)
Release Trot Nixon (Never Drafted)
Release Aaron Sele (Never Drafted)
Release Damon Berryhill (Not Signed)
Retire Hideki Okajima (2007) - This is why I have OOTP 12 on Preorder.
Release Brian Shouse (Not with Sox until 1997)
Release Mike Hartley (Not acquired until 1995)

Players to Move Around League

Brady Anderson from Orioles to Cubs (Lee Smith Trade)
Ozzie Smith from Cardinals to Padres
David Ortiz from Twins to Mariners (1996) - he's already starting, but should be at least still in Seattle's system
Freddy Garcia from Mariners to Astros (1998) - Seattle gets him in the Randy Johnson trade, they do NOT get both in their rotation at the same time!


Players to Modify

Greg Maddux set to use John Flaherty as personal catcher.

Trade Market Moves

None

Deviations

Mogul seems to think that starting Phil Plantier in LF is preferable to Tony Gwynn. Mogul's defensive ratings agree, but David Justice (Mogul's RF choice) is actually better than either of them. Justice moves to LF, Gwynn to RF, Plantier to El Bencho.

Mogul calls up Dave Valle for backup C over John Flaherty. Maddux is not amused, I call up Flaherty.

Greg Litton is Mogul's last bench spot, leaving Scott Cooper as the only backup IF. Litton goes down for Carlos Rodriguez so I have a middle IF backup.

The major deviation is in the rotation. I was left with Gar FinnVold and Tim VanEgmond as my 5th/6th starters due to my standard of using real playing time in the original posts. Of course, that original playing time constraint meant that Tim Wakefield was toiling in the minor leagues all season. Mogul, understandably, wants Wakefield as my 5th starter. I will allow this, as I think it's reasonable based on future knowledge + Wakefield's 1993 performance in the single season simulation, but he will be on a short leash. If Mogul's "historical career paths" setting works like I hope it does, he shouldn't really be what he will eventually become yet anyway.

In the bullpen, Mogul wants Andy Pettitte as the long man. It's too soon for that, so he goes down, and Chris Howard comes up.

Posted Image

Orlando Hernandez (1998)
Hideo Nomo (1995)
Kazuhiro Sasaki (1999)
Ricardo Rincon (1997) - Purchased from Mexican League
Takashi Saito (2006)
Keith Foulke (1994) - Haven't drafted him yet
Jeff Zimmerman (1998) - Purchased from Canada
Akinori Otsuka (2003)
Ichiro Susuki (2001)
Brian Tollberg (1995)
Doug Mientkiewicz (1995)
Matt Morris (1995)
Joe Nathan (1995)
Hideki Matsui (2002)
Chad Bradford (1996)
Geoff Jenkins (1995)
Jarrod Washburn (1995)
Joe Nelson (1996)
Scott MacRae (1995)
Casey Blake (1996)
Todd Helton (1995)
Justin Speier (1995)
Bob Howry (1994) - Haven't drafted him yet
Mike Lowell (1995)
Tim Hudson (1997)
Mark Kotsay (1996)
JD Drew (1998)
Scot Shields (1997)
Brian Fuentes (1995)
BJ Ryan (1998)
Randy Choate (1997)
Koji Uehara (2009)
Sean Casey (1995)
Livan Hernandez (1996)
Tadahito Iguchi (2005)
Hiroki Kuroda (2007)
Kiko Calero (1996)

1994 Simulation Results are next.

#61 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 06 February 2011 - 06:22 PM

Deviation - I forgot to put Rafael Betancourt in the Red Sox system, so the Indians end up using him as a setup man about a decade early.

1994 Simulation Results

Historically, the 1994 Red Sox went 54-61 (Pyth 51-64), finishing 4th in the new AL East, 17 games behind the Yankees, and only 1 game out of last place. The last game of the season was played on Aug 10.

Mogul does not do labor disputes, so I will post Single Season results as of Aug 10 before continuing the simulation.

100 Season Simulation Results

The first year with the Wild Card goes pretty well. The Red Sox average a 106.94-55.06 record, easily trumping Detroit's 81.20-80.82 mark. This leads to 10 ALDS losses, 20 ALCS losses, 11 World Series losses, and 59 World Series wins. The next highest World Series win total goes to Cleveland, with 16.

On the awards side, Jeff Bagwell is 4th in AL MVP wins with 15. The Red Sox dominate the Cy Young again, with Clemens (25) in 1st, Mussina (22) in 2nd, Maddux (18) in 4th, and Saberhagen (7) tied for 5th.

Single Season Simulation Results

Tim Wakefield quickly shows that he needs to spend 1994 in the minors after all. It was worth a shot.

Strike Cutoff Results

After the last historical game on August 10, 1994, the Red Sox sit at 70-44 (Pyth 71-43), with a 3.5 game lead in the AL East over the Baltimore Orioles, who lead the Wild Card race by 3.5 games over the Chicago White Sox. Cleveland leads in the AL Central by 2 games, while the Texas Rangers lead in the West by 7.5 games.

In the NL East, the Montreal Expos lead by 4.5 games. The Chicago Cubs lead in the central by 5, with the LA Dodgers up in the West by 6 games. San Francisco leads the Wild Card race by 1.5 games over the Astros.

If the season were to end on August 10, Jeff Bagwell would win an abbreviated AL Triple Crown. The Red Sox are being carried by the offense of Bagwell (1.161 OPS), and Ray Lankford (.976), as the pitching staff struggles outside of Clemens, Maddux, Mussina, and McMichael. The bullpen is essentially McMichael and a rotation of garbage.

I am going to hold off on the full analysis until the full 162 season is over, but I thought at least a snapshot at the same end point in time was called for. I'm hoping for a World Series showdown with Pedro, Vlad, and Les Expos, but we shall see.

Full Season Results

After the last regular season game, Jeff Bagwell leads the AL in RBIs, falls 2 points of AVG short of teammate Tony Gwynn, and finishes 3 HRs behind McGwire and Griffey.

The Red Sox finish with a record of 96-66 (Pyth 100-62), winning the AL East by 5 games over the Baltimore Orioles. For the first time in about a decade, the Red Sox do not have the best record in baseball, or even in the American League. That distinction goes to the 97-win Cleveland Indians, led by their ridiculous lineup.

Darren Daulton is injured in mid-September, and misses the ALDS entirely.

The Red Sox defeat the Rangers in the ALDS in 4 games, thanks partly to the surprising heroics of John Flaherty, who wins the ALDS MVP.

Daulton gets hurt again in game 3 of the ALCS and misses the rest of that series. Ray Lankford falls in game 4 of the ALCS, and misses the remainder of the series.

The ALCS brings the Red Sox to Cleveland, to face Manny and the Indians. It is actually a somewhat anticlimactic affair, and the Red Sox march on in 5 games. Apparently, having two starters worth getting excited about is better than just 1, and the lineups were roughly equal.

The World Series features the team I was hoping to face, the Montreal Expos featuring Pedro Martinez, Larry Walker, Vlad Guerrero, and Moises Alou.

Ray Lankford misses the first two games of the World Series. John Valentin develops a "sore heel" in Game 3 of the World Series, and misses the next 3 games. I can only imagine the columns to be written about him if the Red Sox lose. Valentin's backup, Carlos Rodriguez, fractures his foot in Game 4 and misses the rest of the series. More importantly, Mo Vaughn suffers a concussion and misses Game 5.

In Game 1, the future reverses itself, as Roger Clemens faces Pedro Martinez. This ends up being another bizarre echo of the real future, as the Red Sox destroy Pedro and win 19-2. Ken Hill outduels Greg Maddux to win Game 2. Ray Lankford returns in Game 3, but John Valentin goes down, while Butch Henry outpitches Mike Mussina to put the Expos up 2 games to 1. Despite losing Mo Vaughn and yet another SS, the Red Sox win Game 4 behind a strong effort from Bret Saberhagen. Game 5 again features the Pedro-Clemens matchup, and once again, it is a bit of a letdown, as the Expos destroy Roger Clemens and win 13-2. Greg Maddux follows up with his own dose of revenge, going the distance in Game 6 as the Red Sox force a 7th game. Mike Mussina throws 7 strong innings, and the Red Sox unload on Butch Henry to win their 10th straight World Series.

I'll be honest, I was kind of rooting for the Expos to restore some sanity to this thing by winning.

Awards:

AL Cy Young: Roger Clemens
AL MVP: Jeff Bagwell
ALDS MVP: John Flaherty
ALCS MVP: Mo Vaughn
World Series MVP: Jeff Bagwell

Posted Image

The Real 1994 Red Sox

I am very thankful that the only two position players to break the 150 game mark were Bagwell and Lankford.

Daulton was quite good at catcher, even if he didn't match his 1994 output, and he's still better than Damon Berryhill. Jeff Bagwell actually undershot his real 1994 OPS by almost 100 points, but I'm not complaining. AT ALL. Tim Naehring fell a bit short of his 1994 campaign, but was still an improvement from Scott Fletcher. John Valentin was quite a disappointment relative to his expected output, missing by roughly 150 points of OPS. Wade Boggs actually does not match Scott Cooper's 1994 season, but that's ok, because Scott Cooper was worse than Kevin Cash AGAIN in the simulation. Boggs falls well short of his 900+ OPS with the Yankees in 1994. David Justice was not quite himself in 1994, but was still quite good, and better than Mike Greenwell. Ray Lankford exceeded expectations, himself, and oh yes, Otis Nixon by a fair margin as well. Tony Gwynn missed significant time due to injury, and did not come close to his real 1994 season, but he did still outdo Billy Hatcher, and even managed to get just enough PAs for Mogul to let him shank Jeff Bagwell for the batting title to end the season. Mo Vaughn missed the mark by about 100 points of OPS as well, but was better than Andre Dawson by even more than that.

On the bench, John Flaherty was excellent, even setting aside his ALDS heroics. Unfortunately, Phil Plantier sucked, and unfortunately, it took me a few months to realize that I could get Jim Edmonds into the lineup when Gwynn was out by shifting Lankford to LF and Justice to RF. Mogul rated Plantier as much better in the corner OF spots, so he got far more PAs at Edmonds' expense than he should have been allowed to. Greg Litton and Carlos Rodriguez ended up being my meh backup IFers. I'm starting to develop a "Rough Carrigan about Manny Delcarmen" attitude towards Scott Cooper. Shawn Green was serviceable, there just wasn't room for him.

I have no idea why the rotation gets stored by GS instead of IP, then apparently randomly within GS. Roger Clemens was not quite himself, but was still good enough to win yet another Cy Young Award. Greg Maddux more than doubled his 1994 ERA, but he was still the 2nd best starter on the team, and by a fairly large margin. Mussina and Saberhagen both underperformed, by roughly 1 full run of ERA, and 2 full runs respectively, but both stayed healthy. This was key, because after the top 4, I had no depth whatsoever. Wakefield contributing all of 11.2 IP over 3 starts tells you all you need to know there. Gar Finnvold looked just unlucky enough in his ERA-DICE disparity to be worth throwing out there on occasion, and he was actually better than his 1994 baseline.

The bullpen wasn't any better than the rotation, consisting essentially of Greg McMichael, who actually overachieved a bit, and a revolving door of mediocrity. By the time the postseason came around, Ricky Trlicek was the Setup Man. With an ERA of 1.47 in 18.1 IP. Cory Bailey was the only other noteworthy contributor, the rest was arranging deck chairs.

Honestly, this pitching staff had no business winning a World Series, but the offense was simply too dominant to be stopped. Of course, the offense wasn't even the best in the AL, but Maddux alone made the pitching staff less bad than Cleveland's. I don't think that the best team won this time, I think the Expos actually had the better roster, but the balls fell in for the Red Sox in October.

The Red Sox led the league in OBP and Fielding Percentage (tied).

On the individual awards, I have noticed that Mogul's Encyclopedia apparently has a lower threshold for PAs to qualify than the Leaders tab in the actual game, so I'll pull the major stat categories from in-game now.

AVG - Tony Gwynn
OBP - Jeff Bagwell
SLG - Jeff Bagwell
OPS - Jeff Bagwell (duh)
RBIs - Jeff Bagwell
Runs Created - Jeff Bagwell
RC/27 - Jeff Bagwell
TB - Jeff Bagwell
Wins - Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux (tied)
WHIP - Roger Clemens
CG - Roger Clemens
IP - Roger Clemens
OBP Against - Roger Clemens
SLG Against - Roger Clemens
OPS Against - Roger Clemens
DICE - Roger Clemens

1995 Roster Setup is next.

#62 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 07 February 2011 - 12:07 AM

1995 Roster Moves

1995 Offseason Post

1995 Trade Moves Post

1995 Season Post

Draft Picks/Amateur FAs to Add

Javier Vazquez
Keith Foulke
Dan Graves
Bob Howry
Rafael Betancourt
Scott Rolen
Kevin Millwood
Jermaine Dye
Johnny Damon
Jason Giambi
Brad Radke
Derek Lowe
Shawn Green
Mike Mussina
Ray Durham
Andy Pettitte
Greg McMichael
Jim Edmonds
Tim Wakefield
Ray Lankford
Greg Maddux
Tony Gwynn
Darren Daulton

Players to Return

Jeff Bagwell from Astros
Wade Boggs from Yankees
John Flaherty from Tigers for Rich Rowland
Glenn Murray from Phillies
Paul Quantrill from Phillies for Wes Chamberlain

Players to Remove

Luis Alicea to Cardinals (Never Traded For)
Erik Hanson (Not Signed)
Jose Canseco to Rangers (Never Traded For)
Mike Greenwell to Detroit Tigers (Signed as FA)
Release Trot Nixon (Never Drafted)
Release Aaron Sele (Never Drafted)
Retire Hideki Okajima (2007)
Release Brian Shouse (Not with Sox until 1997)
Release Troy O'Leary (Not Signed)
Release Kevin Mitchell (Not with Sox until 1996)
Release Mike MacFarlane (Not Signed)
Release Shane Mack (Not with Sox until 1997)
Mark Whiten to Cardinals (Not included in Cormier trade)
Release Zane Smith (Not Signed)

Players to Move Around League

Brady Anderson from Orioles to Cubs (Lee Smith Trade)
Ozzie Smith from Cardinals to Padres
David Ortiz from Twins to Mariners (1996)
Freddy Garcia from Mariners to Astros (1998)

Players to Modify

Greg Maddux set to use John Flaherty as personal catcher.

Trade Market Moves

The Cory Bailey/Scott Cooper trade is modifed to be only for Rheal Cormier, instead of Cormier and Whiten. All this requires is sending Whiten back to Philly.

Shawn Green and Tim Wakefield to Toronto for Mike Timlin.

Deviations

I never address Mike MacFarlane in my original posts, aside from mentioning that Daulton starts over him, with Flaherty as the backup. He was a FA signing that I overlooked. I can't imagine that I'd sign him to be the third catcher. I do not sign Mike MacFarlane, therefore he is added to the release list.

I also ignore Zane Smith in my original posts, but he was apparently signed as a starter in the 94-95 offseason. Obviously I have plenty of starters, and would not sign him. He is added to the release list above.

I also left out Stan Belinda, but since I was short on bullpen arms, I still sign him. The same applies to Alejandro Pena. Seriously, I missed a ton of stuff in my roster setup for this season, I think my callup/trade issues distracted me too much.

Mogul mixes up the OF alignment, going with Edmonds-Lankford-Gwynn over Gwynn-Edmonds-Lankford in LF-CF-RF. I'm not concerned.

Mogul wants nothing to do with my intended bench. Only Ray Durham is in place. Jason Giambi is called up over Terry Shumpert, John Flaherty replaces Bill Haselman, and Johnny Damon replaces Juan Bell.

In the rotation, Mogul wants Javier Vazquez over Brad Radke. Not happening.

No, Mogul, you cannot have Rafael Betancourt in the bullpen yet. I don't think he has even started pitching in the minors at this point.

The Culling is next.

#63 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 07 February 2011 - 10:49 PM

1995 Posted Image

Orlando Hernandez (1998)
Kazuhiro Sasaki (1999)
Ricardo Rincon (1997) - Purchased from Mexican League
Takashi Saito (2006)
Jeff Zimmerman (1998) - Purchased from Canada
Akinori Otsuka (2003)
Ichiro Susuki (2001)
Matt Morris (1995) - OD Roster
Joe Nathan (1995) - Haven't drafted him yet
Hideki Matsui (2002)
Chad Bradford (1996)
Joe Nelson (1996)
Casey Blake (1996)
Todd Helton (1995) - OD Roster
Tim Hudson (1997)
Mark Kotsay (1996)
JD Drew (1998)
Scot Shields (1997)
Brian Fuentes (1995) - Haven't drafted him yet
BJ Ryan (1998)
Randy Choate (1997)
Koji Uehara (2009)
Livan Hernandez (1996)
Tadahito Iguchi (2005)
Hiroki Kuroda (2007)
Kiko Calero (1996)
Troy Glaus (1997)
Jeff Weaver (1998)
Michael Young (1997)
Matt Thornton (1998)
Kenji Johjima (2005)
Brad Lidge (1998)
JC Romero (1997)
Mike Rivera (1997)
Randy Wolf (1997)
Eric Milton (1996)
Lance Berkman (1997)
Doug Davis (1996)
Scott Williamson (1997)

1995 Simulation Results are next.

#64 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 08 February 2011 - 11:42 PM

1995 Simulation Results

Historically, the 1995 Red Sox went 86-58 (Pyth 80-64), winning the AL East by 7 games over the Yankees.

100 Season Simulation Results

The Red Sox dominate the AL East again, with a 107.21-54.79 record. Toronto is 2nd best with a 84.82-77.22 mark. The Red Sox win the AL East 99 times, losing in the ALDS 14 times, losing in the ALCS 20 times, losing the World Series 11 times, and winning the World Series 54 times. The 2nd closest team is the Cleveland Indians, with 20 wins, and a 103.94-58.06 record for themselves.

Individually, Bagwell is 4th with 7 AL MVP Awards. Maddux (28), Clemens (27), and Mussina (10) stack up right behind Randy Johnson in the AL Cy Young winnings.

Single Season Simulation Results

Player to Modify - Scott Hatteberg converted from 1B to C.

Roger Clemens throws a no-hitter on April 23, 1995.

A 26-3 record in May gives me visions of the best regular season W-L record yet.

In late June, Ray Durham earns the starting 2B job over Tim Naehring. He wins the job back in mid-August.

The Red Sox finish with a record of 117-45 (Pyth 120-42), winning the AL East by 30 games over Baltimore.

The team goes into the postseason in perfect health.

The Indians inexplicably lose the AL Central to the White Sox, and therefore are my ALDS opponent.

John Valentin goes down with a sprained knee in Game 1 of the ALDS, and misses 15 days. This is actually a good thing, because Valentin was the worst hitter in the starting 9, and Ray Durham was the best bench player overall anyway.

The Indians are taken down in 4 games. The White Sox, after defeating Oakland (accelerated Tejada) put up more of a fight in the ALCS, but still go down in 6 games.

The Atlanta Braves somehow make it to the World Series without Greg Maddux, mostly thanks to Jason Schmidt stepping into the void.

John Valentin returns for the World Series...until he gets hurt again in Game 2. The Braves take the first two games. He misses Games 3-5. The Red Sox win Games 3-5. Valentin returns for Game 6, and the Red Sox lose to force a 7th game. He then gets injured again in Game 7, and the Red Sox win the World Series again.

Awards:

Cy Young - Roger Clemens
MVP - Jeff Bagwell
ALDS MVP - Mo Vaughn
ALCS MVP - Tim Naehring
World Series MVP - Jim Edmonds

Posted Image

The Original 1995 Red Sox

At this point, the season simulation results aren't nearly as interesting as the individual performances, at least to me. I'm frankly shocked at how lopsided the season-to-season outcomes have been, even with the 50%+ chance of winning the World Series each season, I would expect to lose at some point.

Darren Daulton is both healthier and more effective than expected, easily trumping Mike MacFarlane. Jeff Bagwell takes a victory lap around his 1995 rate stats, I think he likes Fenway. It's hard to be better than 1995 Mo Vaughn, but he was. Tim Naehring comes up a bit short of himself, but he puts up acceptable numbers for a 2B, and he lost some time to Ray Durham (who had around a .900 OPS at the time) who ended up being his equal. I guess not trading for Jose Canseco didn't work out so well for John Valentin. What? Someone had to say it. Wade Boggs stays very healthy, while slightly outproducing relative to expectations, just falling short of 1995 Tim Naehring.

In the OF, Jim Edmonds falls short of himself, but still outproduces Mike Greenwell. Ray Lankford also falls a bit short of himself, but destroys Lee Tinsley's historical output. Tony Gwynn is excellent, and roughly around his real numbers, besting Troy O'Leary. Mo Vaughn doesn't quite replicate his 1995 rate stats, but is roughly Canseco's equal.

On the bench, Ray Durham comes blazing out of the gate. Giambi and Damon are not particularly impressive, but the 1B/DH and OF starters staying healthy make this mostly a non-issue. John Flaherty is fine for a backup C, and Lee Tinsley is Lee Tinsley.

It's pretty easy to see the dominance on the offensive side of the ledger above.

In the rotation, there is absolutely no letdown on the subject of dominance. Roger Clemens vastly exceeds his 1995 numbers, Greg Maddux can hardly be accused of coming up short with such a great stat line, even if it is less great than his real one was, and Mike Mussina nearly bests himself by a full run. Most importantly, all 3 are quite healthy. Andy Pettitte disappoints, and Brad Radke is actually better than his historical line, but after the first 3, I have a hard time caring.

Then here is the bullpen, which also exceeds expectations. Rheal Cormier is the only disappointment, losing many IP to Stan Belinda. The entire bullpen was pretty lucky relative to their DICE numbers, but I wonder how much of that might have been due to the defensive excellence of a Edmonds-Lankford-Gwynn OF. The best team won this time!

The Red Sox lead the league in Runs Scored, Runs Allowed, OBP, ERA, and K/9.

Individual Leaders:

AVG: Tony Gwynn
Runs: Jeff Bagwell
Hits: Tony Gwynn
Wins: Roger Clemens
ERA: Mike Mussina
WHIP: Roger Clemens
CG: Mike Mussina (tied)
SHO: Greg Maddux and Mike Mussina (tied)
AVG Against: Roger Clemens
OBP Against: Mike Mussina
OPS Against: Roger Clemens

1996 Roster Setup is next.

#65 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 10 February 2011 - 12:02 AM

1996 Roster Setup

1996 Roster Moves Post

1996 Season Post

Draft Picks/Amateur FAs to Add

Russ Ortiz
Carlos Beltran
Danny Kolb
Brian Fuentes
Joe Nathan
Javier Vazquez
Keith Foulke
Dan Graves
Bob Howry
Rafael Betancourt
Scott Rolen
Kevin Millwood
Jermaine Dye
Johnny Damon
Jason Giambi
Brad Radke
Derek Lowe
Mike Mussina
Ray Durham
Andy Pettitte
Greg McMichael
Jim Edmonds
Greg Maddux
Tony Gwynn
Darren Daulton

Players to Bring Back

Jeff Bagwell from Astros
John Flaherty from Tigers
Paul Quantrill and Mike Timlin from Blue Jays for Tim Wakefield
Rheal Cormier from Expos for Wil Cordero

Players to Remove

Release Jose Canseco (Not Signed)
Mike Greenwell to Detroit Tigers (Signed as FA)
Release Trot Nixon (Never Drafted)
Release Aaron Sele (Never Drafted)
Retire Hideki Okajima (2007)
Release Brian Shouse (Not with Sox until 1997)
Release Troy O'Leary (Not Signed)
Release Shane Mack (Not with Sox until 1997)
Release Mike Stanley (Not Signed)
Release Jamie Moyer (Not Signed)
Release Tom Gordon (Not Signed)
Release Bret Saberhagen (Not with Sox until 1997)
Jason Varitek to Mariners (Not traded for yet)
Mike Stanton to Braves (Never traded for)
Release Steve Ontiveros (Not with Sox until 2000)

Players to Move Around League

Brady Anderson from Orioles to Cubs (Lee Smith Trade)
Ozzie Smith from Cardinals to Padres
David Ortiz from Twins to Mariners (1996)
Freddy Garcia from Mariners to Astros (1998)

Players to Modify

Greg Maddux set to use John Flaherty as personal catcher.

Trade Market Moves

*AT THE TRADE DEADLINE ONLY*

Heathcliff Slocumb to Mariners for David Ortiz and Jason Varitek

Deviations

Darren Daulton starts at C, which is his position when he's not hurt. Mogul does not have him start the year as injured, so he's here until and unless he goes down.

Mogul wants to start Jason Giambi at 3B over Tim Naehring. Understandable, given their expected offensive numbers relative to each other, but not acceptable given my roster as defined by the original thread. I move Naehring into his starting spot, but plan to monitor the OPS spread between the two from June onward.

Mogul suggests a starting OF of Tony Gwynn in RF, Jim Edmonds in CF, and Milt Cuyler in LF. As an added bonus, Cuyler is the LEADOFF HITTER. Cuyler gets benched for Johnny Damon, then sent down to the minors for Jermaine Dye on the bench.

On the bench, with Dye up, Giambi and Flaherty are in place. Nomar comes up for Jeff Frye, who is on the roster earlier in the season than he should be (whatever, I just won't call him up until after he was originally acquired if I can help it), and Scott Rolen replaces Reggie Jefferson.

In the bullpen, Mogul wants to make Joe Nathan my closer 3 years before he ever appears on a MLB roster. He gets bumped for Slocumb. Nathan then goes down to the minors for Cormier.

Posted Image

Orlando Hernandez (1998)
Kazuhiro Sasaki (1999)
Ricardo Rincon (1997) - Purchased from Mexican League
Takashi Saito (2006)
Jeff Zimmerman (1998) - Purchased from Canada
Akinori Otsuka (2003)
Ichiro Susuki (2001)
Hideki Matsui (2002)
Chad Bradford (1996) - OD Roster
Tim Hudson (1997)
JD Drew (1998)
Scot Shields (1997)
BJ Ryan (1998)
Randy Choate (1997)
Koji Uehara (2009)
Tadahito Iguchi (2005)
Hiroki Kuroda (2007)
Troy Glaus (1997)
Jeff Weaver (1998)
Michael Young (1997)
Matt Thornton (1998)
Kenji Johjima (2005)
Brad Lidge (1998)
JC Romero (1997)
Mike Rivera (1997)
Randy Wolf (1997)
Eric Milton (1996) - OD Roster
Lance Berkman (1997)
Doug Davis (1996) - OD Roster
Scott Williamson (1997)
Roy Oswalt (1996) - Haven't drafted him yet
Juan Pierre (1998)
Jack Wilson (1998)
Aaron Rowand (1998)
Jason Frasor (1999)
Danys Baez (1999)
George Sherrill (2003) - Purchased from Canada
Heath Bell (1998)
Brian Tallet (2000)
Mark Mulder (1998)
Saul Rivera (1998)
Pat Burrell (1998)
JJ Putz (1999)
Mike Crudale (1999)
Josh Towers (1996) - OD Roster

1996 Simulation Results are next.

#66 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 10 February 2011 - 10:34 PM

1996 Simulation Results

Historically, the 1996 Red Sox went 85-77 (Pyth 82-80), finishing 3rd in the AL East, 7 games behind the Yankees.

100 Season Simulation Results

The Red Sox finish with an average record of 114.88-47.12, edging out the 100.44-61.56 Yankees. This leads to 97 AL East Titles and 3 Wild Card wins for the Sox, translating into 4 ALDS losses, 24 ALCS losses, 3 World Series losses, and 69 World Series wins. Before you chalk up that ALCS loss rate compared to the other rounds to epic battles with the Yankees, consider the 111.21-50.79 Cleveland Indians, who come in 2nd with 14 World Series wins.

Jeff Bagwell is the George Custer of the AL MVP vote, coming in 3rd with 10, but surrounded by Indians. Maddux (31), Clemens (24), and Mussina (17) go 1-2-3 in the Cy Young wins. Mussina and Maddux each throw a perfect game.

Single Season Simulation Results

On June 1, with the Red Sox trailing in the AL East by 7 games, Jason Giambi wrests the 3B job away from Tim Naehring.

At the same time, Greg McMichael pitches himself into a "your arm hurts, go get your act together" trip to Pawtucket.

Just before the trade deadline, the Red Sox claim 1st place in the AL East, and Nomar Garciaparra claims the SS job from John Valentin. Valentin gets hurt the next day.

On July 31st, I trade Heathcliff Slocumb to the Mariners for David Ortiz and Jason Varitek. McMichael gets another chance to close.

In August, Valentin returns from injury to reclaim his SS starting job.

By September 1st, it is clear that a closer with an ERA over 5.5 is no longer acceptable at closer, and the role is given to the hot hand.

The Red Sox finish at 109-53 (Pyth 115-47), which wins the AL East by only 3 games. Over the 2nd place, Wild Card Winning, 106-56...BALTIMORE ORIOLES. :unsure:

Mo Vaughn suffers a broken hand on the last day of the season, and missed the ALDS against the AL West winning Seattle Mariners. The only upside is that this puts Tim Naehring back at 3B, putting Giambi at DH, so there is a defensive upgrade. The alternative was Nomar at DH, but Naehring was the original starter, so he gets precedence.

The Red Sox win the ALDS against Seattle in 4 games.

The ALCS features the 112-win Cleveland Indians as the opponent. Mo Vaughn is still out and misses the first 3 games. He returns for Game 4, with the Red Sox down 2 games to 1. The Red Sox win all 3 at Fenway, before being shut down by Orel Hershiser in Game 6, 11-0. Dennis Martinez and Roger Clemens are both annihilated in Game 7, but the Red Sox ride 4 innings of 1-run relief from Joe Hudson, Rheal Cormier, and Paul Quantrill into the World Series.

The Red Sox move on to face the 108-win Braves in the World Series. The Braves are swept aside in 4 games.

That's now 1974, 1981, 1982, and 1984-1996. 13 in a row now? Even I'm not rooting for us at this stage! This is now 21 total World Series wins for the franchise. Including the 20 that they had prior to 1974, the Yankees are now at 23, as they win in 1977, 1980, and 1983. Oddly enough, the Yankees are right on schedule, while the Red Sox are still 2 away from tying them. I suppose I can make a goal out of this after all.

Awards:

Cy Young: Greg Maddux
ALDS MVP: Jason Giambi - Well deserved, with his line of 429/529/1286 in the series!
ALCS MVP: John Valentin - Did my start/sit decisions work out, or what?
World Series MVP: Ray Durham

Posted Image

The Real 1996 Red Sox

Darren Daulton plays in more than 5 games. He was still a large step down from Mike Stanley, but oh well, that's a big improvement from his real 1996.

Jeff Bagwell doesn't quite match the output of his real 1996 season, nor that of either Mo Vaughn variant. I'm still cool with him, though. Ray Durham bests himself by about 70 OPS, and was an improvement over Jeff Frye. John Valentin bested himself, all while holding off an early push by Nomar for his job. I don't think putting Jason Giambi at 3B did the pitching staff any favors, but he was well ahead of himself with the bat by over 140 OPS. He obviously bested both Tim Naehrings, as well.

In the OF, Johnny Damon improved on his 1996, which is useful since Jermaine Dye sucked and wasn't worth platooning with him. Damon came on strong in the 2nd half, making Joe Morgan's playing time commitment pay off. He didn't quite outhit Mike Greenwell, but his glove most likely made up for some of that. Jim Edmonds falls well short of his 1996 campaign, but is still a huge upgrade from the immortal Lee Tinsley. Tony Gwynn outhit himself, stayed healthier than he originally did, and was an obvious upgrade from Troy O'Leary. Mo Vaughn equals his 1996 OPS precisely. He actually gives up some SLG for some more OBP, which is especially nice in this lineup.

On the bench, the IF was solid, but the rest was poor. Flaherty hit poorly for a backup C, but stayed healthy enough to not give Hatteberg significant playing time. Not that Hatteberg was any better. Tim Naehring was a disappointment, but at least he pulled that at a position where I had great depth in Giambi, then Rolen. Rolen enjoyed his cup of coffee. Nomar OPSed over 1.000 when he took Valentin's job, and gave it all back during Valentin's 15-day DL trip. Jermaine Dye was just bad.

The rotation, aside from Maddux and Mussina, looks to have been a tad unlucky. I bet the Giambi-Valentin left side of the IF had something to do with that. Maddux bested his own 1996 campaign, and did it in the AL with two other 100+ win teams hanging around. Simply astounding. Mike Mussina vastly exceeds his 1996 season. Roger Clemens is within 0.01 ERA of his original campaign. Andy Pettitte's absence doesn't seem to have harmed the Yankees too much (they won 91 games, 1 off their original record), but note the disparity between his DICE and his ERA. His DICE matches his original ERA precisely, so I think he may have borne the brunt of the team's defensive miscues. Brad Radke improved on his 1996 season, and all 5 of the gang stayed healthy enough to limit the dreck to 2 starts. I really haven't had to find guys to take many extra starts since Saberhagen left.

That was particularly helpful, because the bullpen pretty much sucked. Stan Belinda, Rheal Cormier, and Paul Quantrill were the only relievers with ERAs under 4.00. Frankly, I'm shocked that the Indians did not demolish this crew in the postseason. Quantrill did save his first 10 opportunities when McMichael was finally banished. Slocumb wasn't even particularly good before the trade, I ended up giving the Mariners 11+ million dollars to put the deal through without using Commissioner Mode. One benefit of going year-to-year is that I get to budget like DoD.

The Red Sox led the AL in K/9. That's it. Cleveland led the AL in Runs Scored AND Runs Allowed.

Individual Leaders:

AVG: Tony Gwynn

Every other hitting category is owned by Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez, usually 1-2, sometimes flipped.

Wins: Greg Maddux (tied)
ERA: Greg Maddux
WHIP: Greg Maddux
DICE: Greg Maddux

A note on the Baltimore Orioles, just because they shocked me - They went 106-56, with a Pyth of 99-63, so they weren't just lucky, they were good. Here's their original team. It's even crazier when you consider that Brady Anderson was on the Cubs, and I had Mike Mussina. The starting pitching was better, but not 18 wins better, at least I don't think it was. Hey, that's why we run the sim, sometimes fun stuff like this happens.

1997 Roster Setup will be next.

#67 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 11 February 2011 - 03:58 PM

1997 Roster Setup

The 1997 Roster Post

1997 Season post

Draft Picks/Amateur FAs/Propects Traded for to Add

David Ortiz
Roy Oswalt
Marcus Giles
Kevin Gregg
Tony Armas, Jr.
Russ Ortiz
Carlos Beltran
Danny Kolb
Brian Fuentes
Joe Nathan
Javier Vazquez
Keith Foulke
Dan Graves
Bob Howry
Rafael Betancourt
Scott Rolen
Kevin Millwood
Jermaine Dye
Johnny Damon
Jason Giambi
Brad Radke
Derek Lowe
Ray Durham
Andy Pettitte
Greg McMichael
Jim Edmonds
Greg Maddux
Tony Gwynn
Darren Daulton

Players to Bring Back

Jeff Bagwell from Astros
John Flaherty from Padres
Paul Quantrill and Mike Timlin from Blue Jays for Tim Wakefield

Players to Remove

Release Darren Bragg (Never Traded for)
Release Jeff Frye (Not Signed)
Heathcliff Slocumb to Mariners (Varitek/Ortiz trade)
Release Tim Naehring (Not Signed)
Mo Vaughn to Angels (Free Agency)
Release Steve Avery (Not Signed)
Mark Brandenberg and Kerry Lacy to Rangers (Never traded for)
Wil Cordero to Expos (Never traded for)
Release Trot Nixon (Never Drafted)
Release Aaron Sele (Never Drafted)
Retire Hideki Okajima (2007)
Release Troy O'Leary (Not Signed)
Release Mike Stanley (Not Signed)
Release Tom Gordon (Not Signed)
Release Bret Saberhagen (Not Signed)
Release Steve Ontiveros (Not with Sox until 2000)

Players to Move Around League

Brady Anderson from Orioles to Cubs (Lee Smith Trade)
Freddy Garcia from Mariners to Astros (1998)

Players to Modify

Greg Maddux modified to use Scott Hatteberg as his personal catcher.
Darren Daulton converted from LF to C.

Trade Market Moves

John Flaherty to Oakland A's (John Wasdin already on roster)

Deviations

Mogul wants to start John Valentin over Nomar at SS. Not this time, but we'll see how this goes.

Mogul wants Reggie Jefferson in LF over Johnny Damon and/or Jermaine Dye. Damon goes from the bench to starting LF, Dye is called up to the bench.

Mogul wants Bill Haselman over Daulton or Hatteberg at C, and Daulton's actually in the minors. Daulton and Haselman swap places.

After Maddux-Pettitte-Radke, Mogul wants to accelerate Roy Oswalt and Javier Vazquez to the rotation. I overrule with Kevin Millwood and Jeff Suppan. Butch Henry will be next in line, as John Wasdin is purely a reliever in Mogul's view, which he probably should be.

Culling is next.

#68 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 11 February 2011 - 05:54 PM

1997 Posted Image

Orlando Hernandez (1998)
Kazuhiro Sasaki (1999)
Takashi Saito (2006)
Jeff Zimmerman (1998) - Purchased from Canada
Akinori Otsuka (2003)
Ichiro Susuki (2001)
Hideki Matsui (2002)
Tim Hudson (1997) - Haven't drafted him yet
JD Drew (1998)
Scot Shields (1997) - OD Roster
BJ Ryan (1998)
Koji Uehara (2009)
Tadahito Iguchi (2005)
Hiroki Kuroda (2007)
Troy Glaus (1997) - OD Roster
Jeff Weaver (1998)
Michael Young (1997) - Haven't drafted him yet
Matt Thornton (1998)
Kenji Johjima (2005)
Brad Lidge (1998)
Randy Wolf (1997) - Haven't drafted him yet
Lance Berkman (1997) - OD Roster
Juan Pierre (1998)
Jack Wilson (1998)
Aaron Rowand (1998)
Jason Frasor (1999)
Danys Baez (1999)
George Sherrill (2003) - Purchased from Canada
Heath Bell (1998)
Brian Tallet (2000)
Mark Mulder (1998)
Saul Rivera (1998)
Pat Burrell (1998)
JJ Putz (1999)
Mike Crudale (1999)
Barry Zito (1999)
Ben Sheets (1999)
Chase Utley (2000)
Jason Bay (2000)
Jaime Cerda (1998)
Mike Gonzalez (1997) - OD Roster
Mike Adams (2001)
John Lackey (1999)
Joe Inglett (2000)
Aaron Harang (1999)
Ty Wigginton (1999)

1997 Simulation Results are next.

#69 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 11 February 2011 - 11:03 PM

1997 Simulation Results

Historically, the 1997 Red Sox went 78-84 (Pyth 80-82), finishing 4th in the AL East, 20 games behind the Baltimore Orioles

100 Season Simulation Results

The Red Sox average a 105.67-56.34 record, ahead of the Yankees with their 98.63-63.40 mark. This translates into 77 AL East wins, and 21 Wild Card berths. The Sox miss the playoffs twice. Out of 98 playoff appearances, there are 14 ALDS losses, 27 ALCS losses, 20 World Series losses, and 37 World Series wins. The Yankees have the next most World Series wins, with 21.

Jeff Bagwell comes in 3rd with 8 AL MVP awards. Jason Giambi is tied for 5th with 4. Greg Maddux leads the Cy Young tally with 35, Brad Radke is 3rd with 8. Nomar is a distant 2nd in Rookie of the Year awards with 20, compared to 60 for Magglio Ordonez. Tony Gwynn hits .400 once. Greg Maddux gets a perfect game.

Single Season Simulation Results

On June 1, Scott Hatteberg earns the starting C job. Daulton's last explosive season is nowhere to be found.

By the time Johnny Damon returns from a DL trip (Spiked Achilles Tendon) in mid-June, Jermaine Dye has seized the starting LF job. Damon reclaims the spot at the start of July. I would just platoon them, but Damon shows a reverse split, and the defensive gulf between them is huge. Mogul hates Dye's defense, at least in LF, and Tony Gwynn is useless outside of RF. Dye never shows an edge against either LHP or RHP over Damon for the rest of the season.

On July 24th, Greg Maddux suffers his first Loss of the season.

On August 16, Tony Gwynn fractures his wrist, missing a month. This puts both Damon and Dye into the starting lineup until his return, when Damon marches on.

The Red Sox finish the season at 114-48 (Pyth 115-47), winning the AL East by 19 games over the Wild Card winning Yankees. The White Sox are a surprising ALDS opponent, having beaten the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central by a whopping 11 games.

Jason Giambi twists his ankle on September 28, and misses the first 3 games of the ALDS. Jermaine Dye has trouble making a convincing sad face.

Scott Hatteberg breaks his hand on the last day of the season, and misses the ALDS.

Giambi returns for Game 4 of the ALDS with the Red Sox up 2-1 in the series, and the White Sox are done in 4. The Mariners take down the Yankees in 5 games, so Seattle comes to town for the ALCS.

In the ALCS, Nomar goes down in Game 3 with a sore heel and misses the rest of the series. The Red Sox trail 2-1 in the series. Hatteberg recovers in time for Game 6, with the series at 3-2, Mariners. The Red Sox sweep the last two games at Fenway, and move on to face the Padres in the World Series.

Nomar returns in time for Game 1 of the World Series. In Game 3, Hatteberg suffers a bruised foot, missing the rest of the series. More importantly, the Padres take the 3rd game, to put the Red Sox in a 0-3 series hole. The Padres finish the job in the 4th game, and sweep the Red Sox out of the World Series.

Well, that was unexpected.

Awards:

Cy Young: Greg Maddux
Rookie of the Year: Nomar Garciaparra
P Gold Glove: Greg Maddux
ALDS MVP: Ray Durham
ALCS MVP: Andy Pettitte

Browsing the headlines, Manny Ramirez wins the AL MVP...and an OF Gold Glove. :rolling:

Stupid interleague play. Now the Mogul Encyclopedia includes and entire section on the batting lines of the pitchers, so I have to do two screenshots. One for the position players, and one for the pitching results.

Posted Image

The Original 1997 Team

Pay particular attention to Troy O'Leary, he'll come up later.

One thing that's nice is that you can see the Home-Road splits and RS/RA numbers this way.

This was a pretty healthy starting 9, with only Gwynn and Damon missing any significant amount of time. Given Dye's effectiveness, that's a pretty fortunate breakdown.

Speaking of fortunate...the worst OPS in the entire lineup is .791. This is why this single season was so far beyond the expected (100 season average) results. Scott Hatteberg just barely outperformed himself, winning the job from Daulton, but he also put up a .398 OBP batting 9th in the lineup.

Jeff Bagwell doesn't quite match himself, or Mo Vaughn, but was quite good enough, thanks. Ray Durham continues to outpace his real season numbers, even though he comes short of historical 1997 Valentin. Nomar was even better than expected, so it's good to see that he won the RoY award that he so richly deserved. Scott Rolen went from looking over his back at John Valentin to blowing past his 1997 season, and also outpacing Tim Naehring's 1997 campaign.

In the OF, not enough can be said about what a pleasant shock Johnny Damon was. There's an accelerated peak, and then there's an extra 160+ points of OPS, and he was great against both RHP and LHP. Wil Cordero need not apply. Jim Edmonds was not quite himself again in 1997, but when the alternative is Darren Bragg, one does not complain. Tony Gwynn falls far short of his 1997 season, by around 100 OPS, and 20+ games played, but he still was an upgrade over Troy O'Leary.

At DH, Jason Giambi was simply magnificent. He blew past his historical numbers yet again, this time by over 100 OPS. He was a teeny, tiny upgrade over Reggie Jefferson.

On the bench, Jermaine Dye was the hard luck El Bencho. He hit well, but not as well as Damon, and lacked Damon's defensive abilities in LF. At least he got ample partial time during the injury stints of Damon and Gwynn. Darren Daulton sucked. John Valentin was adequate in a backup role, but had no shot of breaking into this lineup.

Posted Image

In the rotation, you can see where this team's fatal flaw was to be found. Greg Maddux was awesome again, equaling himself if you account for a league/division adjustment. Brad Radke was roughly on target, doing slightly better than historically. Andy Pettitte, on the other hand, was a full 2 runs of ERA worse than his 1997 season was, and with the unimpressive back end of the rotation, that just wasn't good enough. The good news is that Kevin Millwood and Jeff Suppan pitched well enough, often enough, and long enough to leave only 1 start to Butch Henry. Millwood underperformed, most likely due to being given too many IP relative to his skill level, but Jeff Suppan was over a run better than his original self in roughly the same number of IP.

In the bullpen, the top 4 of McMichael, Timlin, Garces, and Quantrill were all quite solid. You can tell that Timlin came in to handle a bunch of the no decisions left to the pen via a combination of a dominant lineup and mediocre starting pitching (Maddux aside). The bullpen wasn't great, but was good enough to make it to the World Series. I think this team was only a solid Andy Pettitte shy of winning it all again, although it's hard to argue against a sweep.

The Red Sox led the AL in Runs Scored (by over a full RPG), AVG, OBP, and SLG.

Individual Leaders:

Triples: Scott Rolen
Wins: Greg Maddux
ERA: Greg Maddux (Mike Timlin)*
Saves: Greg McMichael
IP: Greg Maddux
SLG Against: Greg Maddux

* - I am filtering out relievers (non-qualifiers) for categories besides saves, but I will put a Red Sox reliever in parenthesis if he has the lowest ERA as a reliever. The starter is still the real category leader.

Some thoughts on San Diego Padres.

This was a team that finished dead last in the NL West in 1997, and Tony Gwynn was my RF, not theirs this time. They won 93 games (Pyth 91), without leading the NL in a single statistical category. Wally Joyner and Ken Caminiti were roughly as good as they were historically, and Greg Vaughn improved on himself a fair bit. Rickey Henderson was excellent coming off the bench, more so than he was historically.

There were two real keys to the team's surprise success without Gwynn. The first was pitching improvement. In the rotation, 3/5 of the starting rotation outperformed themselves, and their #5 starter went from standard dreck to Early Arrival Matt Clement. The bullpen also got significant improvement from 2 non-Trevor Hoffman relievers in Tim Scott and Vicente Palacios.

The second was Troy O'Leary, who the Padres signed after I released him to start the season, filling the RF void left by Tony Gwynn. He wasn't Tony Gwynn, but he put up a .852 OPS, which was just the extra boost that they needed. I was confounded by their appearance in the World Series, nevermind their 4-game sweep of my dominant Red Sox, and it was neat to see how both performance variance and Mogul making a totally reasonable move with one of the released players play out this way. That is, after all, half of the point of bothering to simulate these seasons anyway.

1998 Roster Setup is next.

#70 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 12 February 2011 - 11:01 AM

1998 Pedro Setup

Roster Moves Post

Trade Moves Post

Season Post

Draft Picks/Amateur FAs/Propects Traded for to Add

Tim Hudson
Michael Young
Randy Wolf
Orlando Hudson
Scot Shields
David Ortiz
Roy Oswalt
Marcus Giles
Kevin Gregg
Russ Ortiz
Carlos Beltran
Danny Kolb
Brian Fuentes
Joe Nathan
Javier Vazquez
Keith Foulke
Dan Graves
Bob Howry
Rafael Betancourt
Scott Rolen
Kevin Millwood
Jermaine Dye
Johnny Damon
Jason Giambi
Brad Radke
Ray Durham
Andy Pettitte
Greg McMichael
Jim Edmonds
Greg Maddux

Players to Bring Back

Jeff Bagwell from Astros
Mike Timlin from Mariners
Bill Haselman from Rangers for Damon Buford and Jim Leyritz (Other pieces from trade missing)

Players to Remove - Note on Mogul, do this first if you try to do this yourself. There is a limit on how many pitchers you can have on the roster, so you can't move the whole pile of picks onto the team without cutting people first.

Retire Kevin Youkilis (2001 - Not Drafted Yet)
Release Dennis Eckersley (Not Signed)
John Valentin to Rangers (Free Agency)
Tim Wakefield to Blue Jays (Timlin trade)
Release Darren Bragg (Never Traded for)
Release Jeff Frye (Not Signed)
Mo Vaughn to Angels (Free Agency)
Release Steve Avery (Not Signed)
Release Trot Nixon (Never Drafted)
Retire Hideki Okajima (2007)
Release Troy O'Leary (Not Signed)
Release Tom Gordon (Not Signed)
Release Bret Saberhagen (Not Signed)
Release Steve Ontiveros (Not with Sox until 2000)

Players to Move Around League

Brady Anderson from Orioles to Cubs (Lee Smith Trade)

Players to Modify

None

Trade Market Moves

Kevin Millwood, Russ Ortiz, and Jermaine Dye to the Cardinals for Brian Jordan and Placido Polanco.

Deviations

Mogul decides that the best defensive alignment for OF-DH is Jordan in RF, Damon in CF, Giambi in LF, and Jim Edmonds at DH. Damon goes to LF, Edmonds to CF, Giambi to DH.

Mogul wants Haselman backing up Hatteberg over Varitek. Not happening.

Mogul prefers Reggie Jefferson as the backup 1B over David Ortiz. No.

Mark Lemke over Placido Polanco. Also no.

Midre Cummings over Carlos Beltran. Nyet.

Chad Fonville as the 25th man over Darren Lewis. Overruled.

The rotation is fine, but in the bullpen, Mogul wants Roy Oswalt as the long man/6th starter. Lowe moves down into that slot from middle relief, and Bobby Howry replaces Oswalt on the 25-man roster.

Posted Image

Kazuhiro Sasaki (1999)
Takashi Saito (2006)
Akinori Otsuka (2003)
Ichiro Susuki (2001)
Hideki Matsui (2002)
JD Drew (1998) - OD Roster
Koji Uehara (2009)
Tadahito Iguchi (2005)
Hiroki Kuroda (2007)
Jeff Weaver (1998) - OD Roster
Kenji Johjima (2005)
Brad Lidge (1998) - OD Roster
Jason Frasor (1999)
Danys Baez (1999)
George Sherrill (2003) - Purchased from Canada
Brian Tallet (2000)
JJ Putz (1999)
Mike Crudale (1999)
Barry Zito (1999)
Ben Sheets (1999)
Chase Utley (2000)
Jason Bay (2000)
Mike Adams (2001)
John Lackey (1999)
Joe Inglett (2000)
Aaron Harang (1999)
Ty Wigginton (1999)
Coco Crisp (1999)
Brandon Webb (2000)
Adam Dunn (1998) - OD Roster
Brad Hawpe (2000)
David Dejesus (2000)
Sean Green (2000)
Ryan Howard (2001)
Chris Young (2000)
Brad Ziegler (2003)
Kevin Cameron (2001)
Tommy Murphy (2000)
Clay Hensley (2002)
Andy Van Hekken (1998) - OD Roster
Matt Guerrier (1999)
Mark Buehrle (1998) - Haven't drafted him yet
Cliff Lee (2000)
Erik Bedard (1999)

1998 Simulation Results are next.

Edited by JMDurron, 12 February 2011 - 11:01 AM.


#71 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 12 February 2011 - 03:58 PM

1998 Simulation Results

Historically, the 1998 Red Sox went 92-70 (Pyth 94-68), finishing 2nd in the AL East, a mere 22 games behind the 1998 Yankees.

100 Season Simulation Results

The Red Sox average a 112.02-49.98 record, ahead of the Yankees and their 103.84-58.17 mark. This leads to 81 AL East Titles and 19 Wild Card berths. In the playoffs, there are 11 ALDS losses, 28 ALCS losses, 8 World Series losses, and 53 World Series wins. The Yankees are 2nd with 18 World Series wins.

Individually, Jeff Bagwell (4), Jim Edmonds (2), and Jason Gaimbi (2) are 3rd and tied for 5th in AL MVP awards, which is merely the playground of Manny (68), and Thome (19). Greg Maddux dominates the Cy Young awards with 41, while Pedro is 3rd with 9.

Single Season Simulation Results

The Red Sox finish the season at 109-53 (Pyth 116-46), winning the AL East by 2 games over the Yankees.

The Mariners are the ALDS opponent. They managed to score all of 2 runs in the series, and are swept aside.

As expected, the ALCS is a showdown between the Red Sox and Yankees. Aside from Danny Graves, my roster is completely healthy. The Yankees only lack Ramiro Mendoza. I think this series should deserve a little more of a detailed treatment.

It appears that the Yankees went with Mike Jerzembeck as Pettitte's replacement, as opposed to signing someone off the waiver wire (Saberhagen or Tom Gordon, perhaps?). This is unfortunate for them, as their 5-game ALDS win forces Jerzembeck to face Greg Maddux in Game 1. Maddux throws a CG SHO, and Jeff Bagwell drives in 5 as the Red Sox win 10-0 at Fenway.

It is David Cone vs Javier Vazquez in Game 2 (Yes, Vazquez ended up being my 2nd best starter, and I sorted by season effectiveness for the postseason), and Cone goes the distance this time, as the Yankees win 4-1.

Game 3 is Pedro Martinez vs David Wells in Yankee Stadium, and it ends up being a slugfest. Wells is knocked out early, but the Yankees chip away against Pedro, forcing him to the showers in the 6th inning with the Red Sox leading 7-6. Rich Garces surrenders the lead in the 8th, and the game goes into extra innings. In the 11th, the Red Sox get to Mariano Rivera to take a 8-7 lead. In his 2nd inning of work, Greg McMichael gives up the lead in the bottom of the 11th, and Jorge Posada singles in the winning run to win 9-8.

Game 4 is Brad Radke against Jerzembeck. Jerzembeck is better this time, and the Yankees lead 3-2 until the 8th, when Jim Edmonds hits a solo HR to tie things up. To save the bullpen after the previous day's game, Radke pitches into the 9th. With a runner on 2nd and 2 out in the bottom of the 9th, Tino Martinez doubles in the winning run. To add insult to injury, Radke separates his shoulder while throwing the last pitch of the game, and will miss the rest of the postseason.

Facing elimination, Greg Maddux takes the mound at Yankee Stadium against Orlando Hernandez. Ray Durham leads off the game with a HR, but it is all downhill from there. Maddux is not sharp, and El Duque is good enough to pitch the Yankees to a 6-2 victory, and a trip to the World Series.

The Yankees go on to beat the Cardinals in a 7-game World Series, winning their 24th Championship. The Red Sox now trail by 3, with 21.

Awards:

Cy Young: Greg Maddux
ALDS MVP: Nomar Garciaparra

Posted Image

The Original 1998 Red Sox

The starting 9 consisted of 7 pretty healthy guys, 1 catcher, and 1 really unhealthy Brian Jordan.

At C, Scott Hatteberg was quite a disappointment. A drop of over 100 OPS. Varitek wasn't any help when Hatteberg was injured, either.

In the IF, Jeff Bagwell was stupendous at 1B, surpassing himself as well as Mo Vaughn. Ray Durham was right on target, blowing away Mike Benjamin. At SS, Nomar failed to improve significantly on his rookie campaign, falling well short of himself by over 100 OPS. Scott Rolen also fell short by about 70 points of OPS, but was a clear improvement over John Valentin.

The the OF, I suppose that 2 out of 3 isn't bad. Johnny Damon slightly outplayed himself, and was a slight upgrade over Troy O'Leary's bat, while most likely being a large defensive upgrade as well. Jim Edmonds matched his rate stats quite well, but put up some tremendous counting stats in such a superior lineup. He certainly was an improvement over historical Darren Lewis. Brian Jordan, on the other hand, was a major letdown. Jordan was injured much of the year, and less effective when playing by roughly 120 points of OPS. He was not an upgrade over Darren Bragg, which is a low hurdle to clear.

At DH, Jason Giambi blew himself away once again, by around 130 OPS. He was vastly superior to Reggie Jefferson.

On the bench, the good news is that Darren Lewis was absolutely fantastic while filling in for Brian Jordan, and David Ortiz was just as good while backing up Giambi and Bagwell. The bad news is that Jason Varitek, Placido Polanco, and Carlos Beltran were all ineffective. Polanco's lack of usefulness, combined with Jordan's performance and health problems, make that quite a painful trade in hindsight, particularly following Dye's performance in the 1997 single season run. The bright side is that Durham, Nomar, and Rolen stayed healthy enough to limit the damage done by Polanco.

Posted Image

The discussion of the rotation has to start with Pedro Martinez. This is not the Pedro I was looking for. He contributed 60 fewer innings with an ERA over 1 run higher than his historical mark. Andy Pettitte also underperformed by a similar amount, but at least he had the decency to be injured enough times to give up a few starts to Derek Lowe.

The good news, as usual, starts with Greg Maddux. Maddux was not quite as excellent as he was historically, but given the different league and ballpark, there's nothing to complain about. Brad Radke did quite well, shaving 0.80 off his ERA and staying healthy. The shockingly good news came in the form of Javier Vazquez, who cut his 1998 ERA by more than HALF while pitching in the tougher league and ballpark. Derek Lowe was also stupendous in the 6th starter/long man role, doing great work while Pedro and Pettitte were injured. Luckily, the two never went down simultaneously, so Lowe was the only other starter needed.

The bullpen was pretty solid, overall. Keith Foulke was surprisingly poor, and ended up being replaced by Jim Corsi. Corsi, Rich Garces, and Lowe were the only relievers who could be considered excellent, but none of the other regulars could really be considered to be disappointments.

The Red Sox led the AL in Runs Allowed, and ERA.

Individual Leaders:

Wins: Greg Maddux
SHO: Javier Vazquez (tied)

1999 Roster Setup will be next.

#72 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 12 February 2011 - 07:29 PM

I just now figured out that replying with a quote might make this easier. Common sense...not so common at my house.

1999 Roster Setup

1999 Roster Moves

1999 Trade Moves

1999 Season Post

Draft Picks/Amateur FAs/Propects Traded for to Add

Mark Buehrle
Matt Holliday
John Buck
Mark Teixeira
Tim Hudson
Michael Young
Randy Wolf
Orlando Hudson
Scot Shields
David Ortiz
Roy Oswalt
Marcus Giles
Kevin Gregg
Carlos Beltran
Danny Kolb
Brian Fuentes
Joe Nathan
Javier Vazquez
Keith Foulke
Dan Graves
Bob Howry
Rafael Betancourt
Scott Rolen
Johnny Damon
Jason Giambi
Brad Radke
Ray Durham
Andy Pettitte
Jim Edmonds
Greg Maddux

Players to Bring Back

Jeff Bagwell from Astros
Placido Polanco from Cardinals

Players to Remove

Release Jose Offerman (Not Signed)
Release Mark Portugal (Not Signed)
Release Brian Daubach (Not Signed)
Release Rheal Cormier (Not Signed)
Release Ramon Martinez (Not Signed)
Retire Jonathan Papelbon (2003) - Already my closer in 1999! :angry:
Retire Kevin Youkilis (2001 - Not Drafted Yet)
John Valentin to Rangers (Free Agency)
Tim Wakefield to Blue Jays (Timlin trade)
Release Jeff Frye (Not Signed)
Release Trot Nixon (Never Drafted)
Retire Hideki Okajima (2007)
Release Troy O'Leary (Not Signed)
Release Tom Gordon (Not Signed)
Release Bret Saberhagen (Not Signed)
Release Steve Ontiveros (Not with Sox until 2000)

Players to Move Around League

Brady Anderson from Orioles to Cubs (Lee Smith Trade)
Kevin Millwood from Braves to Cardinals (Jordan/Polanco trade)
Jermaine Dye from Royals to Cardinals (Jordan/Polanco trade)
Russ Ortiz from Giants to Cardinals (Jordan/Polanco trade)

Players to Modify

Carlos Beltran converted from CF to RF.

Trade Market Moves

Randy Wolf to Phillies for Ron Gant

Deviations

Mogul prefers Ron Gant in LF to Johnny Damon. Damon starts, Gant is benched.

Mogul suggests Jon Nunnally over Carlos Beltran in RF. I decline.

Mogul starts Hatteberg over Varitek. I switch the two.

Chad Fonville is the last bench man over David Ortiz. Not happening.

Mogul prefers Pat Rapp to Tim Hudson as the 6th starter. I call up Hudson to replace him. With 6 "full time" starters in 1999, I am going to keep a very close eye on which of the non-Pedro, non-Maddux starters is the least effective. This will be my first real competition for a starting pitching role.

Posted Image

Kazuhiro Sasaki (1999) - Signed after season ended
Takashi Saito (2006)
Akinori Otsuka (2003)
Ichiro Susuki (2001)
Hideki Matsui (2002)
Koji Uehara (2009)
Tadahito Iguchi (2005)
Hiroki Kuroda (2007)
Kenji Johjima (2005)
George Sherrill (2003) - Purchased from Canada
Brian Tallet (2000)
Barry Zito (1999) - OD Roster
Ben Sheets (1999) - OD Roster
Chase Utley (2000)
Jason Bay (2000)
Mike Adams (2001)
John Lackey (1999) - Haven't drafted him yet
Joe Inglett (2000)
Brandon Webb (2000)
Albert Pujols (1999) - Haven't drafted him yet
Brad Hawpe (2000)
David Dejesus (2000)
Sean Green (2000)
Ryan Howard (2001)
Chris Young (2000)
Brad Ziegler (2003)
Kevin Cameron (2001)
Tommy Murphy (2000)
Clay Hensley (2002)
Cliff Lee (2000)
Erik Bedard (1999) - OD Roster
Josh Beckett (1999) - OD Roster
Dan Haren (2001)
Mark Prior (2001)
Craig Breslow (2002)
Nyjer Morgan (2002)
Pat Neshek (2002)
Jesse Carlson (2002)
Noah Lowry (2001)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (2007)
Charlton Jimerson (2001)
Matt Lindstrom (2002)
Ryan Shealy (2002)
Rich Hill (2002)
Chien-Ming Wang (2000)

1999 Simulation Results are next.

#73 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 12 February 2011 - 11:32 PM

1999 Simulation Results

Historically, the 1999 Red Sox went 94-68, finishing 2nd in the AL East, 4 games behind the Yankees.

100 Season Simulation Results

The Red Sox average a 116.23-45.77 season, well ahead of the Yankees at 98.41-63.61. The AL East is won 97 times, vs 3 Wild Card wins. There are 4 ALDS losses, 17 ALCS losses, 5 World Series losses, and 74 World Series wins. The Indians are the next closest team, with 8 titles.

Jeff Bagwell comes in 3rd with 5 AL MVP wins, picking up scraps from the table of Manny Ramirez (66), and Jim Thome (25). Greg Maddux (43), and Pedro Martinez (19) go 1-2 in the Cy Young award. Carlos Beltran is 3rd in RoY awards, with 16. Pedro Martinez and Javier Vazquez each get a perfect game.

Single Season Simulation Results

The hunt for IP for Tim Hudson is ended quickly, as Pedro separates his shoulder in his first start of the season. He returns in May.

Joe Nathan is ineffective, and strictly a reliever, so Derek Lowe becomes the emergency starter.

Upon Pedro's return, all 5 other starters are pitching extremely well. Tim Hudson gets sent into the pen for IP minimization purposes, as he was the guy out of the 6 with the fewest IP historically.

Jason Varitek plays his way out of the starting C job by the start of June. Hatteberg is injured so often that it hardly makes a dent on his playing time anyway.

By the start of July, Pedro Martinez is still the worst starter out of the top 6 guys. It seems apparent that the 1999 Pedro of yore does not live here. On Aug 9, Pedro gets his ERA below 4.00 for the first time all season.

Brad Radke suffers a minor injury at the start of September, giving me the opportunity to notice that Tim Hudson has better numbers. Hudson now gets his IP down the stretch.

David Ortiz, as it turns out, does not break his hamate bone. When Jason Giambi goes down for a week with an injury, Ortiz is given his Sep PAs to see what he has, and to let Giambi rest for October.

The Red Sox finish equal to their Pyth record, at 123-39, winning the AL East by 33 games over the 2nd place, and the Wild Card, Yankees. Texas and Seattle tie for the AL West and Wild Card, and Texas wins the tiebreaker. The Mariners are the ALDS opponent.

Pedro Martinez was even with Radke for the "least effective starter" award, but unlike Radke, Martinez is staying in the postseason rotation come hell or high water. Andy Pettitte becomes the mop-up man for the postseason. There are no injuries heading into the ALDS for the Red Sox, or for the Mariners.

Carlos Beltran goes down in Game 2 of the ALDS with the Red Sox up 2-0 in the series, forcing the putrid Ron Gant into the lineup for the next 2 games. The Red Sox lose Game 3, and Ron Gant goes down for the remainder of the series. Darren Lewis steps in. Lewis homers in Game 4, and the Red Sox move onto the ALCS.

The Rangers upset the 105-win Indians to face the Sox in the ALCS. Beltran and Gant return for Game 1. There are no injuries, and no losses in the ALCS, as the Sox sweep the Rangers and head for the World Series. The Braves shall be the opponent.

The Braves go down in 4 straight games. The Red Sox win their 22nd World Series.

Awards:

Cy Young: Greg Maddux
Rookie of the Year: Carlos Beltran
P Gold Glove: Greg Maddux
ALDS MVP: Jeff Bagwell
ALCS MVP: Jason Giambi
World Series MVP: Scott Rolen

Posted Image

The Original 1999 Red Sox

Aside from Hatteberg and Durham, this was a reasonably healthy group. Giambi had some injures, and suffered a case of Not Being David Ortiz in September.

At C, it's not that Scott Hatteberg was good so much as it was that Jason Varitek SUCKED. That's two months of suck while starting, followed by short stretches of suck while Hatteberg was perpetually injured for 3-5 days every 3 weeks or so.

Around the IF, Jeff Bagwell was awesome once again, even if he was a tad short of his original numbers. He was certainly a huge upgrade over Mike Stanley. Ray Durham came up short of his original production by about 50 OPS, and failed to be an upgrade over Jose Offerman. To be fair, this was Offerman's good year. Nomar failed to match himself once again, but was still excellent. I suspect he would be ok with giving up 80 OPS to hit in this lineup instead of the real one he was given to play alongside. Scott Rolen was right on target, and was a huge upgrade over John Valentin.

In the OF, Johnny Damon outdid himself once again, apparently he likes the Boston media attention. Go figure. He outproduced Troy O'Leary's 1999 season as well. Jim Edmonds stayed healthy enough to keep Ron Gant's rotting carcass on the bench, for which he should be given a medal. I'll take almost 100 more games and 100 more points of OPS, thank you very much. He surpasses Darren Lewis easily. Carlos Beltran came up just a little shy of his 1999 season, but was still good enough to win Rookie of the Year, even if he didn't outdo Trot Nixon's 1999 season.

At DH, Jason Giambi was a mere mortal, falling about 100 OPS short of his 1999 season, but still outdoing Reggie Jefferson by an even wider margin.

On the bench, it took a great deal of restraint to not make David Ortiz the postseason DH, but since Giambi was still pretty good, and Ortiz was barely supposed to be physically functional in 1999, I felt like that would have been taking it a step too far. Elsewhere on the bench, Jason Varitek and Ron Gant were horrible, Placido Polanco exceeded expectations in limited action, and Darren Lewis was adequate in his very rare PAs.

Posted Image

So, lost in my whining about the lack of 1999 Pedro Martinez appearing was the fact that all 6 starters were really good. Considering that the average ERA in the AL in 1999 was 4.86, this was a fantastic group performance.

Plus, I might have forgotten to mention that this Greg Maddux performance was better than the real 1999 Pedro Martinez, and it was done over 30 more IP. I wanted to see Pedro do it, but I suppose the end result worked out ok in the end. It goes without saying that Maddux beat out himself in the process, as well. Pedro was far more injured and far less effective than his historic 1999 performance.

Andy Pettitte improved his ERA by 1.19, while equaling his IP total in a tougher ballpark for a LHP to win in, and still he was probably only the 4th best starter. You can imagine his reaction to mop-up duty in the postseason, but hey, that's baseball for you. It's all just for the good of the team, I'm sure he'll understand.

Javier Vazquez continues to impress and amaze me. Shaving 2 runs off his NL ERA? I was actually rather expecting him to be the one who fell on his face to give innings to Hudson, but boy was I wrong on that one. Not that I mind.

Brad Radke was right on target, in terms of equaling Pedro Martinez on this club, as well as almost hitting his real 1999 right on the nose. That said, he was a little injury prone, and lost his job to give Tim Hudson innings at the end of the year.

Speaking of Tim Hudson, talk about rough luck. He should have been in my top 5 all year, but between the general excellence of everyone else in the rotation, and my emotional attachment to Pedro, he never really got a fair shake. Still, he only came 26 IP short of his original total, and he was in the postseason rotation, so I think we're all square on that one. He went 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in 25 IP in his 3 postseason starts, FWIW.

In the bullpen, if one considers a sub-4 ERA in 1999 to be roughly equivalent to a sub-3 ERA most seasons, this was an excellent group. Derek Lowe didn't quite match himself, but was close enough. Graves, Garces, and Howry made for an excellent Top 4 with Lowe, and the performance of the pitching rotation prevented the other guys from having to soak up many IP. Nathan and Kolb disappointed, but there were only so many IP to go around anyway.

The Red Sox led the AL in Runs Scored, Runs Allowed, HR, ERA, and Fielding Percentage.

Individual Awards:

Isolated Power: (David Ortiz)
Hits: Nomar Garciaparra
Wins: Greg Maddux
ERA: Greg Maddux
WHIP: Greg Maddux
CG: Greg Maddux
SHO: Andy Pettitte
IP: Greg Maddux
OBP Against: Greg Maddux

2000 Roster Setup is next.

#74 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 13 February 2011 - 10:50 AM

2000 Roster Setup

2000 Roster Moves Post

2000 Season Post

Draft Picks/Amateur FAs/Propects Traded for to Add

Albert Pujols
John Lackey
Jake Peavy
Ryan Doumit
Jason Frasor
Mark Buehrle
Matt Holliday
John Buck
Mark Teixeira
Tim Hudson
Michael Young
Orlando Hudson
Scot Shields
David Ortiz
Roy Oswalt
Marcus Giles
Kevin Gregg
Carlos Beltran
Danny Kolb
Brian Fuentes
Joe Nathan
Javier Vazquez
Keith Foulke
Dan Graves
Bob Howry
Rafael Betancourt
Scott Rolen
Johnny Damon
Jason Giambi
Brad Radke
Ray Durham
Andy Pettitte
Jim Edmonds

Players to Bring Back

Jeff Bagwell from Astros
Placido Polanco from Cardinals
Ron Gant from Phillies

Players to Remove

Carl Everett to Astros for Adam Everett (Not Traded For)
Release Shea Hillenbrand (Not Signed)
Release Pete Schourek (Not Signed)
Release Gary Gaetti (Not Signed)
Rod Beck to Cubs for Mark Guthrie (Not Traded For)
Release Carlos Baerga (Not with Sox until 2001)
Release Jose Offerman (Not Signed)
Release Brian Daubach (Not Signed)
Release Rheal Cormier (Not Signed)
Release Ramon Martinez (Not Signed)
Retire Jonathan Papelbon (2003) - Already my closer in 1999! :angry:
Retire Kevin Youkilis (2001 - Not Drafted Yet)
John Valentin to Rangers (Free Agency)
Tim Wakefield to Blue Jays (Timlin trade)
Release Jeff Frye (Not Signed)
Release Trot Nixon (Never Drafted)
Retire Hideki Okajima (2007)
Release Troy O'Leary (Not Signed)
Release Bret Saberhagen (Not Signed)

Players to Move Around League

Brady Anderson from Orioles to Cubs (Lee Smith Trade)
Kevin Millwood from Braves to Cardinals (Jordan/Polanco trade)
Jermaine Dye from Royals to Cardinals (Jordan/Polanco trade)
Russ Ortiz from Giants to Cardinals (Jordan/Polanco trade)

Players to Modify

Carlos Beltran converted from CF to RF.

Trade Market Moves

None

Deviations

Beltran is healthy to start the season, so Gant is on the bench with Beltran in RF on Opening Day.

Mogul gets everything right with the position players, except for using the last bench spot on Lou Merloni (spends a half season in Japan before returning to the Sox) over Darren Lewis.

Mogul wants to put Peavy in the bullpen as the long man, he goes down to the minors for Danny Graves.

Posted Image

Takashi Saito (2006)
Akinori Otsuka (2003)
Ichiro Susuki (2001)
Hideki Matsui (2002)
Koji Uehara (2009)
Tadahito Iguchi (2005)
Hiroki Kuroda (2007)
Kenji Johjima (2005)
George Sherrill (2003) - Purchased from Canada
Mike Adams (2001)
Brandon Webb (2000) - Haven't drafted him yet
Ryan Howard (2001)
Brad Ziegler (2003)
Kevin Cameron (2001)
Clay Hensley (2002)
Dan Haren (2001)
Mark Prior (2001)
Craig Breslow (2002)
Nyjer Morgan (2002)
Pat Neshek (2002)
Jesse Carlson (2002)
Noah Lowry (2001)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (2007)
Charlton Jimerson (2001)
Matt Lindstrom (2002)
Ryan Shealy (2002)
Rich Hill (2002)
Drew Anderson (2003)
Sam Fuld (2004)
Jesse Crain (2002)
Rich Harden (2000) - OD Roster
Shaun Marcum (2003)
Anthony Reyes (2003)
James Shields (2000) - OD Roster
Scott Baker (2003)
Jeremy Accardo (2003)
Dennis Sarfate (2001)
Jared Burton (2002)
John Maine (2002)
John Baker (2002)
Chris Denorfia (2002)
Curtis Granderson (2002)
Mark Saccomanno (2003)
Ryan Hanigan (2002)
Bobby Jenks (2000) - OD Roster
Joe Blanton (2002)
Roy Corcoran (2001)
Mitch Stetter (2003)
Mike Aviles (2003)

2000 Simulation Results are next.

Edited by JMDurron, 13 February 2011 - 10:51 AM.


#75 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 13 February 2011 - 05:43 PM

2000 Simulation Results

Historically, the 2000 Red Sox went 85-77 (Pyth 86-76), finishing 2nd in the AL East, 2.5 games behind the Yankees.

100 Season Simulation Results

The Red Sox average a 122.63-39.37 record, blowing away the 90.11-71.94 Yankees. The Sox win the AL East every single time. This leads to 1 ALDS loss, 4 ALCS losses, 2 World Series losses, and 93 World Series wins. The next closest team is Cleveland, with 3.

For the AL MVP, Jeff Bagwell (6), Jason Giambi (4), and Scott Rolen (2) are 3rd, 4th, and tied for 5th, respectively. Manny and Thome continue to dominate, with 51 and 29 each. The Red Sox dominate the Cy Young awards, with Pedro Martinez 1st with 67, Javier Vazquez 2nd with 19, Pettitte 3rd with 5, Hudson 4th with 4, and Brad Radke tied for 5th with 2. Pedro gets 3 perfect games over the 100 seasons.

Single Season Simulation Results

Deviation - On July 5, when Jason Varitek goes down for 2 days, I am faced with a problem - only two players actually caught games for the 2000 Red Sox: Varitek, and Scott Hatteberg. All 4 catchers in my farm system should not appear yet in 2000, in fact, one of them, Kelly Shoppach, hasn't even been drafted yet. I missed him in the culling because he is still rated too low to have met my threshold. I now resolve that, leaving me 3 guys - Dusty Brown, Ryan Doumit, and John Buck. I am forced to call up John Buck, as his 2004 intial appearance is before that of Doumit (2005), or Brown (2009). At least it's just for 2 days...this time.

From June 15 through July 7, the Red Sox win 20 straight games.

On August 16, Javier Vazquez throws a no-hitter against the Oakland A's at Fenway Park.

On September 1st, it becomes clear that Nomar Garciaparra is fortunate that I am strongly biased in his favor, because I'm not completely certain that Placido Polanco does not deserve a significant chunk of his playing time.

The Red Sox finish the season at 122-40 (Pyth 131-31), winning the AL East by 30 games over the Wild Card winning Yankees. The Seattle Mariners are the ALDS opponent, and there are no injuries going into the series.

The Mariners fall easily, swept aside while being outscored 26-6 over the 3 games. The Cleveland Indians sweep the Yankees away, and Manny comes to town for another ALCS.

Cleveland wins Game 2 at Fenway Park, but that's it, and the Red Sox move on to the World Series after a 5-game ALCS. The St Louis Cardinals, complete with Kevin Millwood, Jermaine Dye, and Russ Ortiz, await.

Joe Nathan suffers a mild concussion in Game 3, forcing Mark Guthrie to help out in the bullpen. Nathan misses two games. The Red Sox trail 2 games to 1 after 3. Nathan returns for Game 6, with the Red Sox looking to clinch yet another title at Fenway Park, up 3-2 in the series. The Red Sox destroy Andy Benes to win it all again in 2000. This is the Franchise's 23rd World Championship.

Awards:

Cy Young: Javier Vazquez
ALDS MVP: Scott Rolen
ALCS MVP: Carlos Beltran
World Series MVP: Pedro Martinez

Pedro's Series MVP is quite controversial, as Pedro went 0-1 in 2 starts in the series. He did put up a 2.35 ERA in 15.1 IP, but still...not sure what Mogul's thinking there. Javier Vazquez went 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 16 IP, and won Game 6 to end things. Ray Durham went insane in the World Series, putting up a 526/526/1105 line, for an OPS of 1.631 in 6 games! Durham was clearly robbed here.

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The Real 2000 Red Sox

This was basically the perfect team. Health, lineup, bench, rotation, bullpen. Everything fell into place.

I can't get tired of looking at these offensive numbers. At C, Jason Varitek completely destroys his 2000 season, giving me more than 140 extra points of OPS. The 2-game injury that forced a brief call-up of Buck was his only downtime outside of regular rest for Hatteberg.

Jeff Bagwell actually fell well short of his original 2000, giving back about 130 OPS. Still, he was a huge upgrade over Brian Daubach, and there's nothing wrong with being really, really good instead of awesome. Ray Durham balances out Bagwell by besting himself by about 110 OPS, while obviously annihilating Jose Offerman. Nomar was quite a disappointment, falling more than 200 points of OPS short of himself, and only keeping the job over an excellent Placido Polanco out of my sense of bias towards original Red Sox players. For the year 2000 in the AL, Nomar Garciaparra was essentially league average, and that's something of a shock. Scott Rolen was roughly on target with his rate stats, but put up some nice HR-RBI numbers compared to his 2000 season. I think it's safe to say that he compares favorably to Wilton Veras.

Johnny Damon fell a bit short of his 2000 season, but was still an upgrade over Troy O'Leary in the field and at the plate. Jim Edmonds also undershot himself, by about 120 OPS, and he failed to match Carl Everett, but even in the AL in 2000, I'll take a .875 OPS out of my CF any day. Carlos Beltran was simply spectacular relative to his 2000 campaign, with an upgrade of over 230 OPS. That makes up for Nomar, right there. More importantly, he stayed healthy and kept Ron Gant out of the lineup.

At DH, Jason Giambi was great, and still fell over 100 OPS points short of his original MVP season. He was a clear upgrade over Dante Bichette.

On the bench, it is actually a little unfortunate that the IF and DH spots were so healthy, because Placido Polanco and David Ortiz were both excellent in their relatively few PAs. Scott Hatteberg was adeqate for a backup C, Ron Gant wasn't horrible in limited action, and Darren Lewis was, well, Darren Lewis.

Posted Image

You know it's a good sign when 2000 Pedro Martinez isn't the best pitcher in your rotation. This time, that wasn't because Pedro disappointed, either, even though he did fall short of his possibly best season of all time by a starting pitcher, when adjusting for competition faced. Pedro's ERA was a full run off from his original season, but his superior supporting cast converted half of his losses into wins, in an equal number of IP.

Javier Vazquez continues to amaze me. He clearly deserved the Cy Young, easily surpassing Pedro in both quality and quantity. He improved his real ERA by nearly 2 full runs. He also came on strong down the stretch and through the postseason. This bizarro universe Vazquez certainly doesn't shy from the spotlight.

Tim Hudson threw more innings at a higher level of quality than his original 2000 season, and did so in a tougher ballpark for pitchers.

Andy Pettitte also improved on himself, shaving about 0.70 off his ERA in slightly fewer IP. Given how the particular ballpark differences impact him, that is also impressive.

Brad Radke suffers the stigma of being the least awesome man among the regular starters, but still improved on himself by about 0.60 ERA. He lost a few innings to injury, but not enough to significantly reduce his overall value.

Mark Buehrle fit right in with the rest of the staff during his cup of coffee while Radke was hurt, and Tomo Okha managed to be the only pitcher on the team with a losing record.

The bullpen was just as great as the rotation, as the drafting of so many relievers really paid off in 2000. The bullpen had a grand total of 17.2 IP taken by any pitcher with an ERA below 5, in a year when the average ERA was 5! Joe Nathan started the year as the closer before giving way to the more awesome Keith Foulke.

Everybody was healthy, and each element seemed to feed off of the others. Starters weren't left in too long because the bullpen was excellent. The bullpen was able to stay rested because all of the starters were excellent. Both the starters and bullpen had excellent run support AND defensive support behind them. The hitters got to feast against plenty of middle relievers in lost causes, because a large number of games played against this team could be described as a lost cause. A fantastic swan song for manager Joe Morgan.

The Red Sox led the AL in Runs Scored, Runs Allowed, AVG, OBP, SLG, HR, ERA, and K/9.

Individual Leaders:

AVG: Ray Durham
Runs: Carlos Beltran
Wins: Javier Vazquez
ERA: Javier Vazquez
Ks: Pedro Martinez
WHIP: Javier Vazquez
CG: Javier Vazquez
SHO: Javier Vazquez (tied)
IP: Javier Vazquez
AVG Against: Pedro Martinez
OBP Against: Javier Vazquez
OPS Against: (Derek Lowe)
K/9: Pedro Martinez

2001 Roster Setup is next

#76 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 13 February 2011 - 11:55 PM

Note from 2000 - Not sure what I was thinking in having Hillenbrand under "not signed", because he should have been signed. Whoops. He didn't play until 2001 anyway, so no harm, no foul.

2001 Roster Setup

2001 Roster Moves Post

2001 Season Post

Draft Picks/Amateur FAs/Propects Traded for to Add

Grady Sizemore
Brandon Webb
Ian Kinsler
Albert Pujols
John Lackey
Jake Peavy
Ryan Doumit
Jason Frasor
Mark Buehrle
Matt Holliday
John Buck
Mark Teixeira
Tim Hudson
Michael Young
Orlando Hudson
Scot Shields
David Ortiz
Roy Oswalt
Marcus Giles
Kevin Gregg
Carlos Beltran
Danny Kolb
Brian Fuentes
Joe Nathan
Javier Vazquez
Keith Foulke
Dan Graves
Bob Howry
Rafael Betancourt
Scott Rolen
Jim Edmonds

Players to Bring Back

Jeff Bagwell from Astros
Placido Polanco from Cardinals

Players to Remove

Manny Ramirez to Indians (Free Agency) - This one hurts, particularly given how Manny has terrorized this simulation so far.
Release Frank Castillo (Not Signed)
Release Hideo Nomo (Not Signed)
Release David Cone (Not Signed)
Dante Bichette to Reds (Not Traded For)
Carl Everett to Astros for Adam Everett (Not Traded For)
Release Pete Schourek (Not Signed)
Rod Beck to Cubs (Not Traded For)
Release Jose Offerman (Not Signed)
Release Brian Daubach (Not Signed)
Retire Jonathan Papelbon (2003) - Already my closer in 1999! :angry:
John Valentin to Rangers (Free Agency)
Release Trot Nixon (Never Drafted)
Retire Hideki Okajima (2007)
Release Troy O'Leary (Not Signed)
Release Bret Saberhagen (Not Signed)

Players to Move Around League

Jason Giambi from A's to Yankees (Free Agency)
Brady Anderson from Orioles to Cubs (Lee Smith Trade)
Kevin Millwood from Braves to Cardinals (Jordan/Polanco trade)
Jermaine Dye from Royals to Cardinals (Jordan/Polanco trade)
Russ Ortiz from Giants to Cardinals (Jordan/Polanco trade)

Players to Modify

Carlos Beltran converted from CF to RF.

Trade Market Moves

None

Deviations

For the lineup, Mogul wants Darren Lewis in CF, Jim Edmonds in LF, Albert Pujols at DH, and David Ortiz on the bench. I put Edmonds in CF, Pujols in LF, Ortiz at DH, and Lewis on the bench.

On the bench, Mogul only has it 2/5 correct. Hatteberg and Lewis are in place. Michael Young is called up to replace Mike Lansing. Shea Hillenbrand is called up to replace Chris Stynes.

This OF had better stay healthy, because the backups go Darren Lewis -> Izzy Alcantara -> Deviations (Holliday, Sizemore)

Mogul calls up Brandon Webb over Mark Buehrle for the 5th starter. I correct that.

Posted Image

Takashi Saito (2006)
Akinori Otsuka (2003)
Hideki Matsui (2002)
Koji Uehara (2009)
Tadahito Iguchi (2005)
Hiroki Kuroda (2007)
Kenji Johjima (2005)
George Sherrill (2003) - Purchased from Canada
Mike Adams (2001) - OD Roster
Ryan Howard (2001) - Haven't drafted him yet
Brad Ziegler (2003)
Clay Hensley (2002)
Dan Haren (2001) - Haven't drafted him yet
Craig Breslow (2002)
Nyjer Morgan (2002)
Pat Neshek (2002)
Jesse Carlson (2002)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (2007)
Matt Lindstrom (2002)
Ryan Shealy (2002)
Rich Hill (2002)
Drew Anderson (2003)
Sam Fuld (2004)
Jesse Crain (2002)
Shaun Marcum (2003)
Anthony Reyes (2003)
Scott Baker (2003)
Jeremy Accardo (2003)
Dennis Sarfate (2001) - OD Roster
Jared Burton (2002)
John Maine (2002)
John Baker (2002)
Chris Denorfia (2002)
Curtis Granderson (2002)
Mark Saccomanno (2003)
Ryan Hanigan (2002)
Joe Blanton (2002)
Mitch Stetter (2003)
Mike Aviles (2003)
Brett Carroll (2004)
Jered Weaver (2004)
Yunel Escobar (2005)
Michael Aubrey (2003)
David Wright (2001) - Haven't drafted him yet
Seth Smith (2004)
Andre Ethier (2003)
Tom Gorzelanny (2003)
Chris Dickerson (2003)
Darren O'Day (2006)
Manny Parra (2001) - OD Roster
Micah Owings (2005)

2001 Simulation Results are next.

#77 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 15 February 2011 - 12:29 AM

2001 Simulation Results

Historically, the 2001 Red Sox went 82-79 (Pyth 83-78), good for 2nd in the AL East, 13.5 games behind the Yankees.

100 Season Simulation Results

The record is 116.16-45.84, besting New York's 97.48-64.53 average. The Red Sox win the AL East 95 times, and the WC 5 times. There are 5 ALDS losses, 7 ALCS losses, 5 World Series losses, and 83 World Series wins. The next closest winner is the Atlanta Braves, with 9 titles. The Diamondbacks don't even average a winning record, sadly.

Albert Pujols makes a peep in the MVP awards, coming in 5th with 5 wins. The Indians dominate even more, with Manny (32), Juan Gonzalez (28), and Jim Thome (21) dividing the spoils. There are only 5 Cy Young winners, and 4 are in my rotation. Pedro Martinez (79), Javier Vazquez (9), and Tim Hudson (7) go 1-2-3, with Roy Oswalt winning 1 in 5th place. Albert Pujols wins the RoY 97 times out of 100. Javier Vazquez gets 2 perfect games.

Single Season Simulation Results

Deviation - On May 5, due to simultaneous injuries to Carlos Beltran and Izzy Alcantara, I am forced to call up Grady Sizemore ahead of schedule. He's actually the least accelerated among my options, tied with Matt Holliday. Sizemore will be on the bench until Beltran returns, he might not even get an AB, much like John Buck in 2000.

On May 26, in his 16th appearance of the season, closer Joe Nathan gives up his first run of the season. He also gives up his second run (unearned), as the Yankees beat him in the 9th to win 2-1. The loss puts the Yankees up in the AL East by 1.5 games.

Doug Mirabelli is acquired on June 12. Varitek is still healthy, but I'm still going to want him going forward anyway.

From June 3-16, the Red Sox finally break the stalemate with the Yankees by winning 13 straight games.

Deviation - I belatedly remember to send Mike Lansing and Rolando Arroyo back to the Rockies, since I never traded for them in 2000.

On July 8, Jason Varitek tears a ligament in his elbow, missing 62 days. This comes just after Pedro goes down for nearly a month with an ankle fracture. Nomar starts getting nervous.

The Sox win their 100th game of the year on August 25th.

The Red Sox finish the season at 124-38 (Pyth 123-39), winning the AL East by 23 games of the Wild Card winning Yankees. There are no injuries heading into the ALDS against the Texas Rangers.

The Rangers are swept out of the ALDS. Once again, the 114-win Indians, with Manny Ramirez, await in the ALCS.

The Red Sox jump out to a 3-0 series lead (with 2 1-run victories), but watch the Indians pull off a pair of close wins to send the series back to Fenway. Out of the 6 games, 4 were decided by 1 run. Roy Oswalt is dazzling, and seals the series with a 1-0 CG Shutout victory. Placido Polanco knocks in Scott Rolen for the sole Red Sox run.

The Braves are the World Series opponent. Scott Rolen goes down with a spiked foot in Game 1, as the Red Sox win 3-2. He misses the next two games. Shea Hillenbrand fills the gap. Rolen returns for Game 4, with the Red Sox on the verge of a sweep. The Red Sox finish off the Braves in 4 games, for Title #24.

The Red Sox and Yankees are now in a dead heat for the title of Most Successful MLB Franchise.

Awards:

Cy Young: Pedro Martinez - He wins the pitching triple crown - led the AL in W, ERA, and Ks
Rookie of the Year: Albert Pujols
2B Gold Glove: Placido Polanco
ALDS MVP: Scott Rolen
ALCS MVP: Nomar Garciaparra
World Series MVP: Carlos Beltran

Posted Image

The Real 1991 Red Sox

Varitek and Nomar both missed some time due to injury, but not nearly as much as they did historically. That's a huge win right there. Jeff Bagwell also missed some time, but Hillenbrand had things well in hand at DH, with Ortiz moving to 1B. Everyone else was quite healthy.

At C, I will happily trade 50 games of Jason Varitek for 60 points of OPS. It's certainly worth it to see the pitching staff frolicking about in utter bliss as they count their blessings for being able to pitch to him. He had a solid 120 OPS on Hatteberg's 2001 contribution anyway.

At 1B, Jeff Bagwell was essentially himself with less playing time. He was a solid 140 point upgrade on Daubach. Placido Polanco goes nuts at 2B, destroying himself and Jose Offerman by about 150 OPS. I'm liking this pattern so far. Nomar is roughly as effective in way, WAY more playing time. That's a 160 point upgrade on Mike Lansing. Scott Rolen mocks these minor upgrades over the other incumbents, as he bests Hillenbrand by 200 points of OPS, right on the nose. He is in line with his own 2001 season.

In the OF, it's yet another 200 OPS upgrade with Albert Pujols in LF, compared to Troy O'Leary. Pujols actually fell short of his rookie campaign by about 70 points, but I'm not complaining. I suspect he lost a few line drive HRs to the Green Monster. Jim Edmonds keeps on upping the ante, besting himself by 100 OPS even, and Carl Everett by...313 points of OPS! If there were any justice in Mogul's world, this would have been a MVP season for Edmonds. Manny had another 100 points of OPS on him, but Jim Edmonds in CF is worth more than that over Manny Ramirez at DH, quite easily, I think. I blame Jon Heyman for this. The upgrade parade comes to a halt with Carlos Beltran. Beltran was actually right on the mark for 2001, it's just that Trot Nixon was quite good as well, so that doesn't represent an upgrade.

At DH, we have the only downgrade, and it's a huge one. Big Papi did not show up, historical David Ortiz did instead. He slightly improved on his 2001 campaign, but I had higher hopes after the 2000 simulation. He was almost a 200 OPS downgrade from Manny Ramirez. Still, 7 upgrades of 100 OPS or more, including 2 200s and 1 300 upgrade, are nothing to sneeze at.

On the bench, Michael Young and Shea Hillenbrand were excellent, which works out nicely since they were the primary backups to see time due to injury. Marcus Giles and Darren Lewis were serviceable, and Scott Hatteberg was slightly better than he was historically.

Honestly, how did this team even finish 2nd historically? It was Manny at DH and...um...Daubach and Nixon? I suppose it was mostly the pitching staff. Speaking of which...

Posted Image

It's easy to forget that in 2001, even Buehrle's 4.09 ERA in Fenway Park is roughly 10 percent above the league average.

Pedro Martinez is slightly less effective from an ERA standpoint, but throws almost twice as many innings, which easily overwhelms the marginally higher ERA. He actually was 1999-2000 Pedro Martinez level in this season, if you take a peek at his DICE. I hear Pujols whistling innocently somewhere.

Tim Hudson managed to slightly improve on himself in 2 fewer starts, and seemed to be oddly unlucky in his W-L record, compared to his rotational counterparts.

Javier Vazquez is also slightly better in slightly fewer IP, maintaining his excellent performance throughout the simulation so far.

Roy Oswalt pitches his way into quite a few more IP and puts up roughly a 1 run higher ERA. He claims the 4th spot in the playoff rotation.

Mark Buehrle was both less effective and less durable than he was historically. Hey, not everybody gets to match or exceed their historical performance, somebody has to get the short end of the stick. This is a really, really nice "short end of the stick" to have to put up with.

Tim Wakefield is sorted down with the bullpen for some reason, but he put in 5 high quality starts while putting up a 2.40 ERA. I guess he's sorted by appearances, and he had a few more games out of the pen than from the rotation.

In the bullpen, Howry, Fuentes, Lowe, Kolb, and Graves all lost their spots due to ineffectiveness. That said, the bullpen still fared quite well, this is why depth is awesome. Hipolito Pichardo got to be the surprise hero, along with an excellent performance from Scot Shields, and downright awesome relief from Joe Nathan, Keith Foulke, and Rich Garces. Wakefield was also excellent as the long man, not that he had many opportunities to show it.

The Sox led the AL in Runs Scored, Runs Allowed, OBP, ERA, and K/9.

Individual Leaders:

HR: Jim Edmonds
RBI: Jim Edmonds
Wins: Pedro Martinez, Javier Vazquez, Roy Oswalt (tied)
ERA: Pedro Martinez
Ks: Pedro Martinez
Saves: Joe Nathan
WHIP: Javier Vazquez
CG: Pedro Martinez (tied)
AVG Against: Pedro Martinez (Joe Nathan)
OBP Against: Javier Vazquez
SLG Against: Pedro Martinez
OPS Against: Pedro Martinez
DICE: Pedro Martinez
K/9: Pedro Martinez

The Seattle Mariners, FWIW, finished below .500 at 80-82. The Cleveland Indians won 114 games behind their bats, but also the Mogul Acceleration of prospects CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee.

2002 Roster Setup will be next.

EDIT - Forgot the bench!

Edited by JMDurron, 15 February 2011 - 12:34 AM.


#78 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 15 February 2011 - 11:43 PM

2002 Roster Setup

2002 Roster Moves Post

The 2002 Trade Market Post

The 2002 Season post

Draft Picks/Amateur FAs/Propects Traded for to Add

David Wright
Dan Uggla
Ryan Howard
Dan Haren
Geovany Soto
CJ Wilson
Skip Schumaker
Luke Scott
Grady Sizemore
Brandon Webb
Ian Kinsler
Albert Pujols
John Lackey
Jake Peavy
Ryan Doumit
Jason Frasor
Mark Buehrle
Matt Holliday
John Buck
Mark Teixeira
Tim Hudson
Michael Young
Orlando Hudson
Scot Shields
David Ortiz
Roy Oswalt
Marcus Giles
Kevin Gregg
Carlos Beltran
Danny Kolb
Brian Fuentes
Joe Nathan
Javier Vazquez
Keith Foulke
Bob Howry
Rafael Betancourt
Jim Edmonds

Players to Bring Back

Jeff Bagwell from Astros
Placido Polanco from Cardinals

Players to Remove

Retire Dustin Pedroia (2004)
Retire Jacoby Ellsbury (2005 - Not Drafted Yet)
Ugueth Urbina to Expos for Tomo Ohka (Never Traded For)
Darren Oliver to Rangers (No Carl Everett to trade for him)
Release Rich Garces (FA)
Release Tim Wakefield (FA)
Release Tony Clark (Not Signed)
Release Carlos Baerga (Not Signed)
Release John Burkett (Not Signed)
Johnny Damon to A's (Free Agency)
Rolando Arroyo to Rockies (Not Traded For)
Manny Ramirez to Indians (Free Agency) - This one hurts, particularly given how Manny has terrorized this simulation so far.
Release Frank Castillo (Not Signed)
Release Jose Offerman (Not Signed)
Release Brian Daubach (Not Signed)
Retire Jonathan Papelbon (2003 - Not Drafted Yet))
Release Trot Nixon (Never Drafted)
Retire Hideki Okajima (2007)
Retire Daisuke Matsuzaka (2007)
Retire Abe Alvarez (2003)
Retire Chris Carter (2004)
Release Devern Hansack (Not with Sox until 2006)
Retire Craig Hansen (2005)
Retire George Kottaras (2002)
Retire Cla Meredith (2004)
Retire Brandon Moss (2002)
Retire David Murphy (2003)
Release David Pauley (Not with Sox until 2005)
Release Roberto Petagine (Not with Sox until 2005)
Release Adam Stern (Not with Sox until 2005)
Release Jonathan Van Every (Not with Sox until 2008)

Players to Move Around League

Kevin Millwood from Braves to Cardinals (Jordan/Polanco trade)
Russ Ortiz from Giants to Cardinals (Jordan/Polanco trade)

Players to Modify

Carlos Beltran converted from CF to RF.
Albert Pujols converted from 3B to LF.

Trade Market Moves

Michael Young and John Lackey to the Rangers for Gabe Kapler.
Jake Peavy to the Blue Jays for Alex Rios.

Deviations

Mogul prefers Polanco at 3B and Orlando Hudson at 2B. I move Polanco to 3B, and Hudson is benched for Hillenbrand. Between Polancos ability at 3B and the fact that both Orlando Hudson and Marcus Giles are lurking on the bench, Mr. Hillenbrand as a very short leash.

On the bench, Mogul taps Lou Merloni and Rey Sanchez to fill out the pine alongside Mirabelli, Hudson, and Kapler. I make a mockery of Mogul's suggestion, and call up Marcus Giles and Rickey Henderson instead.

In the bullpen, Mogul wants Rafael Betancourt and Brandon Webb ahead of schedule. They get sent down for Scot Shields and Brian Fuentes.

Posted Image

Takashi Saito (2006)
Akinori Otsuka (2003)
Hideki Matsui (2002) - Signed in December
Koji Uehara (2009)
Tadahito Iguchi (2005)
Hiroki Kuroda (2007)
Kenji Johjima (2005)
George Sherrill (2003) - Purchased from Canada
Brad Ziegler (2003)
Jesse Carlson (2002) - OD Roster
Drew Anderson (2003)
Sam Fuld (2004)
Shaun Marcum (2003)
Anthony Reyes (2003)
Scott Baker (2003)
Jeremy Accardo (2003)
Jared Burton (2002) - OD Roster
Mark Saccomanno (2003)
Mitch Stetter (2003)
Mike Aviles (2003)
Brett Carroll (2004)
Jered Weaver (2004)
Yunel Escobar (2005)
Michael Aubrey (2003)
Seth Smith (2004)
Andre Ethier (2003)
Tom Gorzelanny (2003)
Chris Dickerson (2003)
Darren O'Day (2006)
Micah Owings (2005)
Matt Capps (2002) - I actually just forgot what year it was when I retired him. Oh well.
Huston Street (2004)
Matt Garza (2005)
Cole Hamels (2002) - OD Roster
Nick Markakis (2003)
Ryan Braun (2005)
Joey Devine (2005)
Hunter Pence (2004)
Nolan Reimold (2005)
Joey Votto (2002) - OD Roster
Chris Iannetta (2004)
Bill Bray (2004)
Fernando Perez (2004)
Cory Wade (2004)
Zack Greinke (2002) - OD Roster
Kurt Suzuki (2004)
Justin Maxwell (2005)
Justin Verlander (2004)

2002 Simulation Results are next.

EDIT - Added some players I had removed when I thought roster numbers might have been my underlying cause of the crashing.

Edited by JMDurron, 17 February 2011 - 10:41 PM.


#79 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 16 February 2011 - 11:17 PM

There's a bit of a problem with 2002. The Amateur draft makes the game nuke itself on June 3 no matter what I seem to do. The 100 season simulation was unaffected, I'm not sure what the underlying issue is.

EDIT - Ok, had to create a new game from scratch to get around the problem. Now I get to do the roster setup again, which will happen another day.

Edited by JMDurron, 16 February 2011 - 11:23 PM.


#80 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 18 February 2011 - 08:47 PM

2002 Simulation Results

Historically, the 2002 Red Sox finished at 93-69 (Pyth 100-62), finishing 2nd in the AL East, 10.5 games behind the Yankees.

100 Season Simulation Results

The Red Sox average a 113.16-48.84 record, well ahead of the Yankees at 93.23-68.85. This leads to 99 AL East Titles, and 1 Wild Card berth. The playoff appearances result in 11 ALDS losses, 16 ALCS losses, 4 World Series losses, and 69 World Series wins. The Braves and Marlins tie with 7 World Series wins each, for 2nd place.

Albert Pujols leads the MVP count at 36, and Jeff Bagwell ties for 5th with 3. Pedro Martinez dominates the Cy Young with 76, followed by Javier Vazquez at 9. Tim Hudson is 4th with 3, and Mark Buehrle ties for 5th with 2. Orlando Hudson is 2nd in the Rookie of the Year tally with 16. Pedro gets 2 perfect games.

Single Season Simulation Results

On June 1, Shea Hillenbrand loses his starting job to Marcus Giles. Giles to 2B, Polanco to 3B.

On June 23, Pedro ruptures ligaments in his knee, and misses 5 weeks.

On August 1, with both Giles and Hudson proving to be ineffective at the plate, Hillenbrand gets his job back.

On August 12, with Pedro back in the rotation, the Red Sox move into first place for the first time since Opening Day.

The Red Sox finish at 113-49 (Pyth 115-47), winning the AL East by 21 games over the Wild Card winning Yankees. The Yankees faded down the stretch after holding the division lead for longer than any other team in the AL East in 2002.

Albert Pujols wins the AL Triple Crown in 2002. He finishes the season batting .392, with 49 HRs and 148 RBI.

The Red Sox get healthy in time to face the White Sox in the ALDS. In a stunning upset, the White Sox win the ALDS in 4 games. The White Sox had won only 89 games in the regular season, with a Pyth record of 82-80.

The White Sox beat the Yankees in a 7-game ALCS, then lose to the Phillies in a 5-game World Series.

Awards:

Cy Young: Pedro Martinez
MVP: Albert Pujols
3B Gold Glove: Placido Polanco

The Original 2002 Red Sox

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The games played here are a little odd, due largely to the Polanco-Giles-Hillenbrand moves. Polanco was the starter at 2B for the first half of the season, then at 3B. The thing is, he got injured and missed a couple of weeks, which apparently gave Giles and Hillenbrand each more playing time at their respective positions and Polanco had at them, even though he clearly played more overall. Polanco also ended up at SS while Nomar was hurt, so he didn't get enough games at any one position to make the top end of the stat sheet, even though he was an everyday player. For simplicity's sake, consider Polanco the 2B and Giles the bench guy.

Aside from that, Varitek, and Nomar, it was a pretty healthy group.

Speaking of Varitek, at C, he was within .001 of his original OPS, albeit in slightly fewer games. Mirabelli was slightly worse in slightly fewer games.

Around the IF, Jeff Bagwell was a bit of a disappointment, at around 80 OPS short of his 2002 season. Sometimes, it's nice when your competition is Tony Clark. At 2B, was a pleasant surprise, with more than a 50 OPS jump from his 2002. He was a significant upgrade over Rey Sanchez. At SS, Nomar significantly outplayed himself, by around 70 OPS, although in about 20 fewer games. Shea Hillenbrand was a serious disappointment at 3B, falling short of himself by 100 OPS. Unfortunately, neither Giles nor Hudson really seemed interested in outplaying him to take the spot.

In the OF, what can be said about Albert Pujols? Albert Pujols in Fenway is a beautiful thing, albeit one that would never happen in real life. Fortunately, SoSH would never fall prey to such NYYFans style Too bad this is just a fantasy. Pujols outhits himself by 245 OPS, and surpasses 2002 Manny Ramirez by over 100. Oh, and he won the Triple Crown, too. At least it's another Red Sox player, right? Jim Edmonds falls short of himself by 100 OPS in CF, but is still a significant step up from Johnny Damon. Carlos Beltran exceeds expectations, surpassing Trot Nixon easily.

At DH, David Ortiz becomes Big Papi, as I had hoped for. He basically replicates his 2004 level of production two years ahead of schedule, having adapted his swing for Fenway Park. He's only worth about 300 more OPS than Carlos Baerga.

The bench was a complete horror show outside of Doug Mirabelli and Marcus Giles, who were merely below average offensive contributors. Gape Kapler, Rickey, and Orlando Hudson were all terrible.

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Pedro Martinez was not quite as good as his original 2002 campaign, and pitched fewer IP in the process. That said, they were still great enough to be worthy of the AL Cy Young, so there's that.

Javier Vazquez continues to impress, exceeding himself once again. He did it in slightly fewer IP than his original 2002 season, but I'm not complaining.

Roy Oswalt was a bit of a disappointment, allowing over half an earned run more per 9 IP. He also threw fewer IP than he did historically. He may have gotten a little unlucky on BABIP, judging from his DICE.

Tim Hudson was very disappointing, exceeding his original ERA by over a run. Even with the Fenway move, that's not what I was hoping for. He was still above the league average ERA of ~4.50, but not by as much as I had hoped.

Mark Buehrle was just flat out bad. Almost 2 more ER per 9 IP. He did appear to have some poor BABIP/defensive luck behind him, but still, that's unacceptable.

The numbers at the top of the bullpen don't look too bad, but it took most of the season to get the bullpen put together, as Kolb, Shields, Fuentes, and Nathan all pitched their way out of the bullpen early in the season. As things went on, the list of failures grew - Gomes, Nelson, Banks, and Haney. Foulke and Howry also lost some time due to injury, so even after the Embree trade, Nathan and Fuentes actually had to get IP out of desperation, and pitcher their way back into the pen as the injury stints ended.

Derek Lowe was pretty good, not great, in both his 6th starter and bullpen roles. Casey Fossum pitched quite well for Lowe when Pedro or any of the other starters missed some time. Foulke ended up losing the closing job to Howry while injured, but both pitched very well overall.

Ultimately, it appears that the starting pitching performance just wasn't quite there to make a postseason run, even though the roster performed well over the course of the regular season. The best team didn't win, and honestly I'm surprised I did as well from 1974-2002 as I did overall, in terms of postseason dominance.

The Red Sox led the league in Runs Scored, AVG, OBP, SLG, HR, ERA, and K/9.

Shockingly, the Texas Rangers led the league with the fewest runs allowed. Mogul's prospect acceleration explains much of this, courtesy of significant contributions from a 23-year-old Chris Young, 23-year-old John Lackey, and 18-year-old Edison Volquez.

Individual Leaders:

FWIW, Pujols led MLB as a whole in AVG, HR, and RBI, as well.

AVG: Albert Pujols
HR: Albert Pujols
RBI: Albert Pujols
OBP: Albert Pujols
SLG: Albert Pujols
Runs: Carlos Beltran - guess who he hit in front of
OPS: Albert Pujols
ISO: Albert Pujols
Hits: Albert Pujols
2B: David Ortiz
TB: Albert Pujols
XBH: Albert Pujols
RC: Albert Pujols
RC/27: Albert Pujols
SF: Carlos Beltran
Ks: Pedro Martinez (tied)
DICE: Pedro Martinez
K/9: Pedro Martinez

#81 JMDurron

  • 4,319 posts

Posted 18 February 2011 - 08:57 PM

So, that concludes the simulation of my 1974-2002 Time Machine Red Sox via Baseball Mogul.

I will probably do a combined narrative/simulation from 2003-2010 in the near future, but at this point, I'm not inclined to do it via Mogul. The draft issues, early appearance issues, and player progression (accelerated peak and declines) are just more than I'm willing to deal with. I'm tired of the damn culling, but I'm not willing to deal with 19 year olds who haven't been drafted yet winning MVPs. It's fine when just playing around with Mogul for fun, but when trying to actually simulate something in the historical context, it's a real deal breaker.

I currently have OOTP 12 on preorder, and plan to see what that has to offer. At the very least, I know that OOTP lets you set things so that players appear based on their MLB debuts, not an arbitrary age. I believe there is also a secondary option for the correct draft years, so either one would get me around the worst of Mogul's difficulties. I'm sure that OOTP has some of its own issues, but I won't know which one suits me needs better for this little thought exercise until I've tried them both.

In the meantime, I'll probably play around with a multi-season sim, which will bear so little resemblance to anything close to reality that it won't be worth posting. I mostly want to see if I can make the contracts work, because things got a bit hairy in the late 70s/early 80s without stars like Fisk and Lynn departing.

If anyone with Baseball Mogul 2011 is interested in playing around with what I've done here, PM me and I can send you the savegame files. I saved each season before Opening Day (except 1974, I didn't change anything), after the last game of the World Series, and after simulating until Opening Day of the following season to generate the Encyclopedia.

If I find myself with a bunch of spare time on my hands, I might take the player stats from my encyclopedia exports and see how each player's career numbers change as a result, but that's just a thought at the moment. Having to go year-to-year to get around some of Mogul's issues means that I don't have a single, handy way to look at the stats page. It will depend on how stir crazy I get before Opening Day, or when OOTP 12 is released.

Whenever I pick up 2003, that will be in a new thread.