Sean Berry's attempt at doing a community simulation of the 1974 Red Sox via Baseball Mogul inspired me to purchase Baseball Mogul and have some fun with it on my own. Naturally, one of my first thoughts was to try to take Baseball Mogul and eventually use it to simulate the actual season outcomes of my 1974 - 2002 Red Sox rosters. This thread will detail these year-to-year simulations, which will be done in two forms
- 100 simulations of the given season once the roster is set, using Mogul's Single Season Simulator functionality.
- 1 standard season walkthrough with me as GM, using Mogul's standard interface.
First, some thoughts on how Baseball Mogul's structure is determining how I will be going about this.
First of all, Baseball Mogul 2011 is a ton of fun, but it has some limitations.
- The first and most obvious for the sake of this exercise is that there is no real draft data, historical players enter the draft when they turn 18. That kind of screws up my whole drafting system.
- There are no compensation draft picks.
- Another historical issue that I have encountered from reading the Mogul forums is that historical greats tend to decline and become useless far, far too early in their careers, and given that part of the point of doing this is to take historical players at their historical capability levels, that's a bit of a dealbreaker. There are some theoretical workarounds via extremely tedious player editing and/or league setting manipulations, but I'm not too interested in that.
Mostly due to those 3 issues, I am structuring this exercise as follows.
I will load each historical season in turn, set the roster as per the combination of history and my narrative dictate, simulate that season 100 times, then play through that season. At the end of that season, I will start a NEW game for the following season, instead of continuing on from the previous season. This is primarily to get me around the historical figure regression and the draft issues, it's easier to hunt down the right players when they start where they are supposed to be historically. This will also avoid some of the funky resultant contract issues that will occur as I effectively force players from one team to another.
As needed, I will stop the single-season simulation to make historical or alternate history transactions. There may be some historical transactions that are so insignificant that I will ignore them, I will do my best to note every deviation from the original thread as I go.
I will try to remember to put a link between this thread and the appropriate post in the GM Time Machine thread to make the narrative roster/transactions/draft more accessible.
I will not micromanage Baseball Mogul's auto-roster function, at least at first. This essentially simulates many day-to-day roster moves and lineup/rotation settings by the manager, and since I am the GM, not the manager (Mogul really lets you be both, to a degree), I don't think it would be reasonable to overrule it very often, at least not until the Morgan/Francona era of increased Manager-GM coordination.
There are some inherent weaknesses to this approach:
- The computer manager may call up players before they were historically deployed.
- This essentially takes the financial aspect out of the game, due to the year-by-year nature of my approach
- This will inevitably lead to sub-optimal player utilization when Mogul makes a decision to play someone at a position that I do not play them at in the original narrative, I will have to deal with this on a case-by-case basis, possibly including forcing full position changes onto the player
Ultimately, the biggest benefit trumps the weaknesses - it's a way to see how the roster as a whole might have played together against the rest of baseball, and it doesn't tie us in to direct translations of ERA+/OPS+ from their historical seasons. It brings in the historical ability levels (or, Mogul's rating of them, anyway), without assuming the specific historical stats, which was really part of the point of the whole exercise, using the stats was basically a proxy to estimate appropriate moves and the impact of those moves on history.
For those of you who are familiar with Baseball Mogul, I am proceeding using the following settings:
Difficulty Level: Mogul
Injury Frequency: -30%
Injury Severity: -30%
Medical Staff Impact: -100%
Farm System: Normal
Medical Staff: Normal
Mimic Historical Drafts: +100%
Use Historical Career Paths: Enabled
Aging Randomness: -100%
Player Personality/Happiness: -100% on both
I'm internally debating turning on Player Personality/Happiness, but I'm not sure whether or not Mogul's simulation of "Clubhouse Chemistry" would be any more realistic than not including it at all. I'm open to input on this one.
As for the injuries, I've played Mogul through at least the 2017 season (from 2010) on all 4 difficulty levels, and have found that the game tends to drastically overstate injuries. I found the -30% modifiers in a suggestion on the Mogul Forums, and the Medical Staff impact is my own "house rules" addition. The Forum recommendation was for -50%, I'm open to some debate on that particular setting as well.
I've done the 100-season simulation and the single walkthrough of 1974, but will hold off on posting it for the moment. I want to give anyone who is still reading this a chance for some input on those settings if they are so inclined, and I want to get back to watching the Steelers and Ravens try to set some kind of NFL postseason penalty record. If there is a consensus to change the two settings, I may re-do 1974 anyway, and I don't particularly want to post it twice.
Edited by JMDurron, 16 January 2011 - 02:39 PM.