286 replies to this topic

[Shelterdog]

I take a pretty simplistic view on this. In business the vast majority of people act rationally. This is not a complicated decision where determining what is rationale is difficult. Here at the end of the season CC and his agent will analyze the market based on what's out there and how CC performed. If it's likely he will get more than 4/92 he opts out. Without knowing the future right now it seems likely that will be the rationale decision from what everyone here has already covered.

Yup. It's really not complicated at all.

The interesting question is if he thinks he can get a 6 or 7 year deal at 18 or less per year-do you opt out of 4/92 to get 6/105, or do you wait until your contract expires and hope to beat what is essentially a 2 year/13 million extension.

[BucketOBalls]

Yup. It's really not complicated at all.

The interesting question is if he thinks he can get a 6 or 7 year deal at 18 or less per year-do you opt out of 4/92 to get 6/105, or do you wait until your contract expires and hope to beat what is essentially a 2 year/13 million extension.

Seems to be building


I don't think he's gonna get much more AAV; He might get it upped to about 24 M, but that's about it. The real question is how many additional years they have to tack on. I'm guessing 2. Maybe 3 if he has a really good year.

[uncannymanny]

Yup. It's really not complicated at all.

The interesting question is if he thinks he can get a 6 or 7 year deal at 18 or less per year-do you opt out of 4/92 to get 6/105, or do you wait until your contract expires and hope to beat what is essentially a 2 year/13 million extension.

This is exactly the point. It really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things whether he wants to play for the Yankees or not. It's a business decision. He can opt out (and I'm pretty certain he will barring catastrophe) and take himself right into retirement on big money by signing a new long term deal. With the emphasis on youth now that the steroid era is fading away, guys just aren't getting mega deals past their mid-30's. It's just smart to lock it in now at a high AAV and not have to hustle for 1 yr, incentive-laden type contracts in 5 years.

The only questions in this scenario are:

A) Whether he goes on the DL or has a bad enough season to blow the great situation he's in (wouldn't bet on the latter and even if the former happens in a minor way it won't matter)
B) Who will give him the new 6-7 year, $150+ deal. If A doesn't happen, we're only talking about B or
C) Why CC and his agent are morons.

[rembrat]

So, are the few Yankee fans that post here just going to pretend like this topic doesn't exist anymore?

[jon abbey]

So, are the few Yankee fans that post here just going to pretend like this topic doesn't exist anymore?

I'm personally so sick of talking about off the field crap like this, I can't wait until the season starts. Cliff Lee's loss bites NY in the ass yet again here.

[TomRicardo]

If he ate that he's actually not unhealthy. He would technically be a diabete, I believe.

I, for one, look forward to Suzyn Waldman praddling on about brave CC is pitching with one foot amputated.

[Doug Beerabelli]

But will she mention the fact he himself nibbled it off an ate it?

He can do this and not gain any weight, so management should be OK with this.

[glennhoffmania]

I'm not sure that's true, and I went back and read that thread this summer when we had the last CC opting out discussion. The argument was generally that the opt out wasn't a big deal, I was one of the ones arguing that at the time (much more eloquently than I plan to again), and I'll stick by that.

Jon, I'm not trying to start a shit storm here, but do you still agree with the quote above? Given the events that have happened since the end of the offseason, is it still not a big deal? If he opts out and NY refuses to give him more money or he leaves money on the table to go to the west coast, it would be a disaster for NY in my opinion.

This isn't an I told you so. I believed when he signed his deal it was a big mistake to give him an opt out. And I think it could really end up biting them in the ass since they didn't get Lee, Burnett has turned into garbage, and there is nothing in the system that can make a significant contribution in the immediate future- plus the lack of FA pitchers next year.

[JMDurron]

This isn't an I told you so. I believed when he signed his deal it was a big mistake to give him an opt out. And I think it could really end up biting them in the ass since they didn't get Lee, Burnett has turned into garbage, and there is nothing in the system that can make a significant contribution in the immediate future- plus the lack of FA pitchers next year.

I think the point about the bolded that keeps getting missed is this - yes, giving him an opt-out is worse than not giving him an opt-out. If the choice was really between giving him an opt out and not getting him at all, then it wasn't a big mistake, it was an unfortunate cost of getting the deal done. I've seen a few of our resident Yankees fans make this point in isolation (perhaps it was the same poster making the point 35 times, I can't recall), or as a part of other arguments, and it seems to keep being ignored. It was not a given that Sabathia was willing to go to NYC before they signed him, so I personally find it plausible that Cashman didn't have much choice in the matter if he wanted to get him. They got him, therefore I find it difficult to call it "a mistake", in fact I think that's a slightly dishonest attempt to shift the goal posts.

Now, as to whether or not the opt out is a bad thing in a vacuum, with negative implications for the Yankees after this season, I don't think anybody can really disagree that the answer is clearly "YES".

[glennhoffmania]

I think the point about the bolded that keeps getting missed is this - yes, giving him an opt-out is worse than not giving him an opt-out. If the choice was really between giving him an opt out and not getting him at all, then it wasn't a big mistake, it was an unfortunate cost of getting the deal done. I've seen a few of our resident Yankees fans make this point in isolation (perhaps it was the same poster making the point 35 times, I can't recall), or as a part of other arguments, and it seems to keep being ignored. It was not a given that Sabathia was willing to go to NYC before they signed him, so I personally find it plausible that Cashman didn't have much choice in the matter if he wanted to get him. They got him, therefore I find it difficult to call it "a mistake", in fact I think that's a slightly dishonest attempt to shift the goal posts.

Now, as to whether or not the opt out is a bad thing in a vacuum, with negative implications for the Yankees after this season, I don't think anybody can really disagree that the answer is clearly "YES".

True, but we'll never know. What if they could've gotten him without an opt out for 7/170 instead of 7/163? Then it was a huge mistake. If he refused to sign without one then it wasn't a mistake.

The point I'm referring to isn't whether it was a mistake or not. It's that several posters kept saying it wasn't a big deal. And at the time maybe it didn't seem like a big deal because they had Burnett and he looked pretty good, Hughes and Joba looked like good bets to both be above average starters, and everyone assumed they'd get Lee. Now that none of those things are true, it seems like a big deal to me.

Edited by glennhoffmania, 16 February 2011 - 01:21 PM.

[th@tkid]

I think the point about the bolded that keeps getting missed is this - yes, giving him an opt-out is worse than not giving him an opt-out. If the choice was really between giving him an opt out and not getting him at all, then it wasn't a big mistake, it was an unfortunate cost of getting the deal done. I've seen a few of our resident Yankees fans make this point in isolation (perhaps it was the same poster making the point 35 times, I can't recall), or as a part of other arguments, and it seems to keep being ignored. It was not a given that Sabathia was willing to go to NYC before they signed him, so I personally find it plausible that Cashman didn't have much choice in the matter if he wanted to get him. They got him, therefore I find it difficult to call it "a mistake", in fact I think that's a slightly dishonest attempt to shift the goal posts.

Now, as to whether or not the opt out is a bad thing in a vacuum, with negative implications for the Yankees after this season, I don't think anybody can really disagree that the answer is clearly "YES".

and that's all there really is to say about the topic.. supposedly CC was going to require anyone to give him that opt out, especially the team he had to be begged and pleaded with to get him there... He won us a WS, was trading Hanley for basically one great year of Beckett worth it?... of course you won a series out of it.. I guess they resign him if it is only business. I am more worried that this is not a business decision and more of a now I am ready to go back home issue..

Edited by th@tkid, 16 February 2011 - 01:22 PM.

[jon abbey]

Jon, I'm not trying to start a shit storm here, but do you still agree with the quote above? Given the events that have happened since the end of the offseason, is it still not a big deal? If he opts out and NY refuses to give him more money or he leaves money on the table to go to the west coast, it would be a disaster for NY in my opinion.

It would have been a FAR bigger disaster if they didn't get him initially (fewer prospects in the pipeline, new Stadium about to open, more years since they'd won a title), and Cashman believed that he wouldn't have signed in NY without the out clause.

I think the same as I did in our initial discussion about this, the initial signing gave NY three years to develop alternatives, and no one is forcing NY to resign him if (and now it seems when) he opts out. It seems as if they'll have no actual choice but to do so, but that is on them for not building the rest of the rotation better in the interim (the Haren non-deal again looming large).

[jon abbey]

Cashman talked about this the other day, FWIW:

"“From the first moment free agency started, we put a significant offer on the table,” Cashman said. “It was taking a long time. He was certainly trying to see what all the options were out there. In theory he was looking to be somewhere close to the West Coast. At least, that’s what the belief was, somewhere West of the Mississippi. We were trying to convey all of the positives of East Coast baseball, especially what New York brings, and try to secure the player. I suggested, if this is not something you’re going to be happy with, you can opt out after three years.”

Why be the one to initiate the opt out, though?

“At that time, I know I felt that I was in a race,” Cashman said. “Mark Teixeira was hanging out there. Anaheim was pulling on Mark Teixeira, and I personally felt that Mark Teixeira was not going back to Anaheim, that he was going to wind up in Boston. And when Anaheim figured that out, they would take those dollars and start knocking on CC’s door. I needed to get CC done before that declared itself. I had to do everything because I felt like, if Anaheim showed up, I would be in trouble and I might not seize my player.

“I did everything in my power. I know it’s constantly written about, how the Yankees were bidding against themselves. I don’t believe, to this day, that I was. I had seen what the landscape was.”"

http://yankees.lhblo...nd-the-opt-out/

[glennhoffmania]

I think the same as I did in our initial discussion about this, the initial signing gave NY three years to develop alternatives, and no one is forcing NY to resign him if (and now it seems when) he opts out. It seems as if they'll have no actual choice but to do so, but that is on them for not building the rest of the rotation better in the interim (the Haren non-deal again looming large).

Yeah I think this is the key. Maybe they just assumed they'd get Lee and have some leverage over CC. But for the last three years they've really done nothing to improve the rotation. They knew Pettitte would leave eventually. They probably knew that Joba wasn't meant to be a starter. If everything had worked out and they got Lee, Burnett pitched well, and Hughes developed well they would be fine if CC left and dominant if he stayed.

[StuckOnYouk]

“At that time, I know I felt that I was in a race,” Cashman said. “Mark Teixeira was hanging out there. Anaheim was pulling on Mark Teixeira, and I personally felt that Mark Teixeira was not going back to Anaheim, that he was going to wind up in Boston. And when Anaheim figured that out, they would take those dollars and start knocking on CC’s door. I needed to get CC done before that declared itself. I had to do everything because I felt like, if Anaheim showed up, I would be in trouble and I might not seize my player.

“I did everything in my power. I know it’s constantly written about, how the Yankees were bidding against themselves. I don’t believe, to this day, that I was. I had seen what the landscape was.”"

http://yankees.lhblo...nd-the-opt-out/

Somewhat similar to Theo and the large contract offer he made to Crawford. It may have seemed he was only bidding against himself, but in actuality he feared the Yanks would have made a large push for him, especially if they missed out on Lee to Texas (no one assumed Philly at the time).

[Rasputin]

I can't see this happening. They'll overpay in terms of prospects and/or taking on bad contracts to get someone like Liriano or Cain. There's no way they sit back for 3 years hoping guys like Nova turn into the next true Yankees.

But there's no guarantee it works or works well enough to make them relevant.

Let's say none of the Yanks 2-5 options in the rotations pitch particularly well. Hughes and Burnett don't pitch horribly but they end up in a dog fight for the Wild Card with Tampa Bay. Sabathia opts out and goes to Anaheim. Soriano opts out and goes to Toronto. Posada retires.

They get Liriano and he pitches well in 2012 but not as well as Sabathia would and they end up finishing out of the wild card by several games.

Mariano Rivera retires. They scramble and trade and sign and it doesn't work.

[glennhoffmania]

But there's no guarantee it works or works well enough to make them relevant.

Let's say none of the Yanks 2-5 options in the rotations pitch particularly well. Hughes and Burnett don't pitch horribly but they end up in a dog fight for the Wild Card with Tampa Bay. Sabathia opts out and goes to Anaheim. Soriano opts out and goes to Toronto. Posada retires.

They get Liriano and he pitches well in 2012 but not as well as Sabathia would and they end up finishing out of the wild card by several games.

Mariano Rivera retires. They scramble and trade and sign and it doesn't work.

All true. They may not be relevant this year either even with Sabathia. I just meant that they won't sit back and wait for the kids to develop. I wasn't too clear in my previous post.

[Trlicek's Whip]

Nothing new, but bumping to reflect Jon Heyman's take via SI.com that CC's definitely opting out, and most likely will re-up and remain a Yankee until he can resume his Cap'n Crunch eating activities:

One competing American League exec said it's "100 percent'' that Sabathia will let the opt-out work for him. "Itwas negotiated into the deal,'' another AL exec said of the opt-out that's available to Sabathia after this season. 'It would make no sense not to take advantage of it.''

[Montana Fan]

Rosenthal said the same thing the other day. It wasn't if CC is opting out, it was when CC opts out and where he might land.

[abty]

I always believed that he wants to be back home in California and that he will hit the Angels up if he won a ring in NYC. Now that he has a ring, and has a chance to opt out, I am curious to see if the Angels will be a good enough team to entice him (let alone afford his asking price). It should be an interesting off-season to say the least.

[keyalyn]

He'd certainly be a nice option for the Angels to replace Pineiro and Kazmir when they come off the books at the end of the year. But despite that it would still be a bit tough for them from a payroll standpoint. Weaver is about to become very expensive, while Haren and Santana will be making around $12M each next season. If they can get Sabathia for $20M AAS (which would be a huge discount) are they willing to spend close to $60M on 4 guys in their rotation? Even if they go and trade Santana, they'd still be looking at over $40M on 3 guys in the rotation. If they're willing to keep their payroll at the $141M it is this season maybe it is a possibility, but that would be an awfully pricey rotation if they go back to the $110M-$120M payrolls they had from 2007-2010.

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

I always believed that he wants to be back home in California

That was probably the case very early on. But as I think I mentioned several pages up-thread, even the Sabathias are shocked by how much they love living in the Alpine area: the commute is insanely easy, the neighbors leave them alone (except when we send our kids Trick-or-Treating in Alpine), the schools and the sports are fantastic for their children, etc.

[Gunfighter 09]

Assuming he does opt out, the solution to the current Dodgers debacle will drive the market quite a bit. If MLB can take the team and get it sold by this winter, CC has another California team to drive up the price.

[abty]

That was probably the case very early on. But as I think I mentioned several pages up-thread, even the Sabathias are shocked by how much they love living in the Alpine area: the commute is insanely easy, the neighbors leave them alone (except when we send our kids Trick-or-Treating in Alpine), the schools and the sports are fantastic for their children, etc.

Which means CC can have his cake and inhale it in one piece, too. Very good point as it seems to me that the variable of 'home comfort' has potentially been remedied since his family is happy there. No point in him uprooting them if he does not have to.

As for the next reply which talked about the Dodgers, one benefit for him joining L.A would be his love of hitting for himself. With that said, I don't think any of those factors (no more DH, moving back home) will matter. He's there for life. The more I think about it the more I think Omar's Wacky Neighbor hit the nail on the head. Why not collect more money and keep your family happy? Not to mention the fact that if the Angels didn't invest in him for 2009 there is little chance they do it 3 years later when he has 3 more years of wear and tear (and buffalo wings).

[jon abbey]

CC in a contract year maybe kicking into effect, he's in the best regular season stretch he's been in since Milwaukee, with a career high 23.2 scoreless IP and a great effort in a big swing game against TB today.

NY is starting him in the third game back after the break one day after they could, and this is presumably to line him up to pitch the 8/5 opener in Fenway, otherwise he'd miss that series. Since he has a 6.16 ERA in 3 starts against BOS this year and a 2.37 combined against everyone else, that should be a good test.

If he keeps this up, I'd happily offer a three year extension at the same money as soon as the season ended (even if I were a bit doubtful he'd last all of it, he's NY best SP since Ron Guidry and is showing no signs of slowing), but as part of the deal, I would ask him to be co-captains with Jeter, that would ease the public transition there which I think may have already happened to some extent in the clubhouse (no evidence, my overall perception). I know that usually SPs aren't captains but this seems like it would make a good exception.

[LMontro]

CC in a contract year maybe kicking into effect, he's in the best regular season stretch he's been in since Milwaukee, with a career high 23.2 scoreless IP and a great effort in a big swing game against TB today.

NY is starting him in the third game back after the break one day after they could, and this is presumably to line him up to pitch the 8/5 opener in Fenway, otherwise he'd miss that series. Since he has a 6.16 ERA in 3 starts against BOS this year and a 2.37 combined against everyone else, that should be a good test.

If he keeps this up, I'd happily offer a three year extension at the same money as soon as the season ended (even if I were a bit doubtful he'd last all of it, he's NY best SP since Ron Guidry and is showing no signs of slowing), but as part of the deal, I would ask him to be co-captains with Jeter, that would ease the public transition there which I think may have already happened to some extent in the clubhouse (no evidence, my overall perception). I know that usually SPs aren't captains but this seems like it would make a good exception.

I don't get the captain thing. You are making a bigger deal out of it than it is. They don't need one and the odds of it being a pitcher are slim to none. Ease the public transition? I think you are projecting

[jon abbey]

CC to me is the leader of this team right now, and has been pretty much since the day he arrived. And no, no team "needs" a captain but since they have one already doing at least some of the job (seemingly), I think it would be beneficial to recognize the reality of the situation (as I see it).

This would also maybe give him a little more pull in any FA recruiting and maybe let him get involved a little more. This could have easily helped in the Lee disaster, and maybe could help this winter if they go after CJ Wilson. Also I'd say that team captain for the Yankees is probably a $5-7M job right now (going by Jeter), so that would make me feel better about the added $23M years.

[glennhoffmania]

I don't know where you get this stuff from. We have no clue who the real leader of this team is. And you really think that being a captain is worth 5m-7m per year? Come on. Sabathia is not Jeter and that ridiculous overpay wasn't due to Jeter being the captain.

As for the contract, I assumed he'd be asking basically for Lee's deal, maybe a little more, so something like 5/125 or 6/144. You'd feel good about basically giving him 7/161 again three years later?

Edited by glennhoffmania, 10 July 2011 - 09:04 PM.

[jon abbey]

You'd feel good about basically giving him 7/161 again three years later?

Not great, but there's no choice, I think. Certainly 5/125 or 6/144 would be preferable, but they can't really run the chance of losing him. This is a team whose #2 guy if the playoffs started today would be Bartolo Colon, and no young guys looking like they're ready to be top of the rotation guys any time soon. Hughes and Nova look like back end guys right now, and Banuelos/Betances are still both probably two years away at least.

The Cashman situation could impact on this also, ideally they can get him back in the fold very soon after the season ends. If they can't, it might be an ugly winter.

[JMDurron]

This would also maybe give him a little more pull in any FA recruiting and maybe let him get involved a little more. This could have easily helped in the Lee disaster, and maybe could help this winter if they go after CJ Wilson.

This isn't NCAA football. Do you really think that making Sabathia a team captain and getting him more involved with "FA recruiting" would have made Cliff Lee not take less money to go back to the team that he says he was looking forward to returning to? It's not like you can get much more involved than having the wives apartment hunt together near the trade deadline (IIRC).

[BroodsSexton]

Come on, if he were truly captain material, he wouldn't opt out at all. He would play out his contract and then sign a huge overpay for his declining years. That's how a True Yankee does it.

[Wily Mo Lester]

?

[jon abbey]

This isn't NCAA football. Do you really think that making Sabathia a team captain and getting him more involved with "FA recruiting" would have made Cliff Lee not take less money to go back to the team that he says he was looking forward to returning to? It's not like you can get much more involved than having the wives apartment hunt together near the trade deadline (IIRC).

Yes, I think that if CC had more actively and aggressively courted Lee (and CC's wife had done the same for Lee's wife) that it certainly might have turned out differently. The Phillies weren't even an option for the bulk of the bidding, it was only when it dragged out between Texas and NY that Philly swooped in. There is a possibility (not a probability, but a possibility) that a full-court press led by CC (under contract for 5-6 more years, not just 1) would have gotten it done.

[abty]

No, I heard that Lee wanted Philly (as did his wife) but he needed them to show interest. That's why he delayed. When he was traded to Seattle the one thing I recall is how miserable he was. He did not ever want to leave. Later, after his off-season signing, he talked about how he and his wife love Philly. If a player turns down the yankees, there is a reason because Lord knows if he wanted them he'd be paid more and wouldn't have had to wait. It's actually admirable to see how he wanted to return. I never understood why they even traded him and, sure enough, they bring him back. It was comical how their GM played it.

[terrynever]

CC might opt out just so he could swing a bat every five days (just kidding). That's one of the reasons Lee is so happy in Philly. He had an 11-pitch AB the other day against Atlanta and finished it off with his first career home run. He flew around the bases, and now holds bragging rights with his fellow pitchers. This isn't the main reason why he went back to Philly, but it's one of them.

[th@tkid]

Yes, I think that if CC had more actively and aggressively courted Lee (and CC's wife had done the same for Lee's wife) that it certainly might have turned out differently. The Phillies weren't even an option for the bulk of the bidding, it was only when it dragged out between Texas and NY that Philly swooped in. There is a possibility (not a probability, but a possibility) that a full-court press led by CC (under contract for 5-6 more years, not just 1) would have gotten it done.

Lee wanted Philly the whole time it was reported that the main reason being the Philly Children's Hospital because of the way they took care of his kid who apparently needs a decent amount of medical attention. Could he have gotten that care in NY or Texas? Absolutely, but he was comfortable with doctors there (Philly has the number 1/2 rated Children's Hospital year over year rotating the title with Boston).

The Phillies never thought they had a real shot until the money started to stabilize between NY and Texas and Cliff told them he would take less (not that much less with the option years) to come back. That's when they signed him. Losing Lee was not Cashman's fault or CC's fault he wanted Philly, and they got him.

His son is in remission for leukemia
http://bleacherrepor...elphia-phillies

Jaxon was diagnosed with leukemia at four months old while Cliff was still in the minor leagues. He had a 30 percent chance of living. Lee could not believe the news and was in complete shock.

Jaxon suffered various setbacks during the process, but he fought through the cancer the whole time. Lee never liked to talk about the illness, even though he spent much of his time in the hospital.

Lee’s son received a bone marrow transplant that saved his life, and Lee’s performance on the field paralleled his son’s improvement in the hospital.

Lee’s son was diagnosed as cancer free in 2006 when he was five years old. But during the Lee family’s quick stop in Philadelphia more than a year ago, they found something that offered them insurance in case anything every happened.

The Children’s Hospital in Philadelphia is ranked as one of the top children’s hospitals in the August 2010 issue of U.S. News and World Report. The Lee family felt really comfortable with this hospital treating their son if anything ever came back up.

Cliff Lee is all about the family, his first priority even before baseball.

So why did Cliff Lee return to Philadelphia after all?

Maybe his return was about more than just the game: the security of his family.

Edited by th@tkid, 11 July 2011 - 09:04 PM.

[MH76]

Lee's contract w/Philly is 5yr/$120M with a $27.5 vesting option for Year 6 (If he pitches 200IP in Year 5 or 400 combined IP in Year 4 and 5) or a $12.5 buyout if he does not..

The NYY offer was 6yr/$132M with an $18M player option for Year 7

Did he really take the lesser deal?

http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=5917145

Edited by MH76, 11 July 2011 - 09:49 PM.

[LMontro]

His son is in remission for leukemia
http://bleacherrepor...elphia-phillies

Jaxon was diagnosed with leukemia at four months old while Cliff was still in the minor leagues. He had a 30 percent chance of living. Lee could not believe the news and was in complete shock.

Jaxon suffered various setbacks during the process, but he fought through the cancer the whole time. Lee never liked to talk about the illness, even though he spent much of his time in the hospital.

Lee’s son received a bone marrow transplant that saved his life, and Lee’s performance on the field paralleled his son’s improvement in the hospital.

Lee’s son was diagnosed as cancer free in 2006 when he was five years old. But during the Lee family’s quick stop in Philadelphia more than a year ago, they found something that offered them insurance in case anything every happened.

The Children’s Hospital in Philadelphia is ranked as one of the top children’s hospitals in the August 2010 issue of U.S. News and World Report. The Lee family felt really comfortable with this hospital treating their son if anything ever came back up.

Cliff Lee is all about the family, his first priority even before baseball.

So why did Cliff Lee return to Philadelphia after all?

Maybe his return was about more than just the game: the security of his family.

Disappointing that the article didn't mention anything about hitting bombs and bragging rights!

[glennhoffmania]

Lee's contract w/Philly is 5yr/$120M with a $27.5 vesting option for Year 6 (If he pitches 200IP in Year 5 or 400 combined IP in Year 4 and 5) or a $12.5 buyout if he does not..

The NYY offer was 6yr/$132M with an $18M player option for Year 7

Did he really take the lesser deal?

http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=5917145

Yes. He got $132.5m guaranteed instead of $150m guaranteed.

[kieckeredinthehead]

Yes. He got $132.5m guaranteed instead of $150m guaranteed.

Guaranteed in 5 rather than 7 years. Assuming none of it's deferred, he'll invest that money and make up the difference by year 6 and 7.

edit: Of course, ignoring the added earning potential in years 6 and 7.

Edited by kieckeredinthehead, 12 July 2011 - 12:51 PM.

[BigJimEd]

Lee's contract w/Philly is 5yr/$120M with a $27.5 vesting option for Year 6 (If he pitches 200IP in Year 5 or 400 combined IP in Year 4 and 5) or a $12.5 buyout if he does not..

The NYY offer was 6yr/$132M with an $18M player option for Year 7

Did he really take the lesser deal?

http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=5917145

I think you are reading that wrong. Or maybe I am.

Lee is only guaranteed 120M not 132.5m. Lee is paid 107.5M the first 5 years then he has either the vested option at 27.5 or the buyout at 12.5. The deal is either 5 years for 120 or 6 years for 135.

[glennhoffmania]

Guaranteed in 5 rather than 7 years. Assuming none of it's deferred, he'll invest that money and make up the difference by year 6 and 7.

edit: Of course, ignoring the added earning potential in years 6 and 7.

Assuming that these numbers are right, as opposed to what JimEd is saying, there's no way he makes up that extra 18m by investing. It's only a difference of 2m per year AAV before taxes, and his deal is backloaded. And I think the point is that when his contract expires at age 38, the odds are he won't get a big new contract.

I'm not saying that the two deals are miles apart. But the fact is that he turned down more guaranteed money to go to Philly. If NY had offered more years AND a higher AAV, I'm guessing he'd be a Yankee right now. He chose a little bit higher AAV over another 18m in guaranteed money.

[kieckeredinthehead]

Assuming that these numbers are right, as opposed to what JimEd is saying, there's no way he makes up that extra 18m by investing. It's only a difference of 2m per year AAV before taxes, and his deal is backloaded. And I think the point is that when his contract expires at age 38, the odds are he won't get a big new contract.

I'm not saying that the two deals are miles apart. But the fact is that he turned down more guaranteed money to go to Philly. If NY had offered more years AND a higher AAV, I'm guessing he'd be a Yankee right now. He chose a little bit higher AAV over another 18m in guaranteed money.

Sorry, you're right -- there's no way to spin the fact that he was guaranteed more money by New York. But by most basic models of expected value, Cliff Lee is likely to earn as much money from the Philly contract + whatever he gets at age 37/38/39 + investing the higher AAV than he is with the Yankee deal. Especially if you factor in Lee's self-evaluation of what he'll be worth as a 37-year-old pitcher it's not hard to argue that he took what he thought was the more valuable deal.

Edited by kieckeredinthehead, 12 July 2011 - 02:22 PM.

[BigJimEd]

Assuming that these numbers are right, as opposed to what JimEd is saying,

I am just going off the ESPN article that was linked to earlier although Cots numbers are the same. The 12.5M buyout is included in the 120 million guaranteed:

Lee, 32, spurned bigger offers from the Yankees and Rangers and agreed to a five-year, guaranteed $120 million contract with the Phillies, sources said.

...

Lee is slated to make $11 million next season with his salary jumping to $21.5 million in 2012 and an additional bump to $25 million in each of the next three seasons, according to information obtained by The Associated Press.

The salary for the first 5 years = 107.5 million.
Lee is then due either
- the 12.5 buyout which would give him 120 million for 5 years or
- 27.5 million vested option for a total of 135 million over 6 years.



According to that same article the Yankees offer was:

The Yankees' final offer to Lee came in at $132 million over six years, a source said, with a $16 million player option that could have brought it to $148 million.

So according to that article MH76 cited, Lee passed on a guarantee of $28 million for the potential to make 3 million more in year 6. The 7th year in the Yankees offer is just an insurance policy for Lee since if he still thinks he can get a better deal on the open market he can decline the option.

edit: That is a big risk, especially for a pitcher, for relatively little gain. I doubt many would consider the Phillie's offer to be the better offer overall.

Edited by BigJimEd, 12 July 2011 - 03:03 PM.

[glennhoffmania]

Yup, JimEd is right. The difference in guaranteed money is even more than originally thought. He definitely left a chunk on the table and the odds are he won't make it back at age 39.

[jsinger121]

SI_JonHeyman

Heard cc is selling prince on nyy. ZERO evidence #yankees want great dh. But its a sign cc will stay

[RedOctober3829]

Yeah he'll stay. After he rapes Hank and Hal for every penny he can get from them. This season is even more evidence that they'd be screwed without him.

[CaptainLaddie]

There is simply no way he doesn't opt out. None.

[StuckOnYouk]

There is simply no way he doesn't opt out. None.

Well I don't think he officially needs to opt out if he likes the 2-3 year extension Levine offers him right after the season ends.

[Gunfighter 09]

SI_JonHeyman

Heard cc is selling prince on nyy. ZERO evidence #yankees want great dh. But its a sign cc will stay

The combined cost of the two will have to be at least $40-45 per year. There are not many teams that can pay that freight and the Yanks can certainly go to $50, so I think only the California teams can hope to compete by playing on CCs desire to go home:

-The Giants must be really enthused that they are paying Huff, Zito and Rowand a combined $42M next year. They probably have some room for payroll increase, but I cant see them adding an extra $30M. Without those terrible deals, they could spend that money on the Prince/CC jumbo platter.

-The Angels are shedding $42M in salary with the end of the Kazmir, Matthews, Abreau, Pinero and Rodney's deals, so they probably have some room to compete. That said, CC and the world's fattest vegetarian don't strike me as good bunters, so perhaps they don't fit on the smartest manager in baseball's team.

-The Dodgers are shedding $45M in salary with Furcal, Kuroda, Broxton, Rivera, Barajas, Padilla and Carroll. Of course, I don't see how any player signs with the McCourts right now and the saga will certainly not have reached a satisfactory (Cuban?) solution by this winter. They also have to look at extending Kemp and EIthier, so they might have other payroll priorities regardless of ownership status. It would awesome to see Bud take the team and steal the Yankees best pitcher.

The Padres and A's are not competitive salary wise.


It is simply incredible that the Angels will be paying Vernon Wells $24M in 2014. .




https://spreadsheets...FKQ&output=html
https://spreadsheets...HIw&output=html
https://spreadsheets...jQQ&output=html

Edited by Gunfighter 09, 17 July 2011 - 11:26 AM.