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What's the chance CC opts out?


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Poll: What is the chance? (316 member(s) have cast votes)

What is the chance?

  1. No chance. He's got plenty of money coming ($92M) after next year. That's a lot of cash to say no to. (35 votes [11.08%])

    Percentage of vote: 11.08%

  2. Maybe - depends on what Oswalt and Carpenter decide to do. (62 votes [19.62%])

    Percentage of vote: 19.62%

  3. Absolutely! He put the clause in there so he could opt out and renegotiate, especially after seeing what Cliff Lee got in an offer from the Yankees. (219 votes [69.30%])

    Percentage of vote: 69.30%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 22 December 2010 - 05:16 PM

So?

I think he does. I think he'd be foolish. He has huge leverage over the Yankees on this -- he opts out, leaving them with -- what, AJ Burnett or Phil Hughes as the opening day 2012 starter (assuming they don't sign Carpenter, Oswalt or Wilson)?

He'll still be younger than Lee was this offseason. He'd be a fool not to go get a 7/150 deal from the Yankees.

Edited by CaptainLaddie, 22 December 2010 - 05:29 PM.


#2 jon abbey


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Posted 22 December 2010 - 05:31 PM

Can we at least mention that he's said repeatedly he's not going to? Obviously that's no guarantee, but since he was the one who volunteered that info last summer initially (as opposed to being asked), it's certainly worth noting.

#3 TheYellowDart5


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Posted 22 December 2010 - 05:59 PM

Can we at least mention that he's said repeatedly he's not going to? Obviously that's no guarantee, but since he was the one who volunteered that info last summer initially (as opposed to being asked), it's certainly worth noting.

It's worth noting, but there's no way he won't, unless his agent undergoes some kind of massive brain trauma between now and then.

#4 bosox79

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Posted 22 December 2010 - 06:01 PM

Its not up to his agent though.

#5 Mike in CT



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Posted 22 December 2010 - 06:26 PM

Ideally..

1. The Yankees acquire no one of long term significance this offseason or at the deadline.
2. The Yankees miss the playoffs.
3. Sabathia has a huge year.
4. The rest of the Yankee staff is mediocre to bad to hurt.
5. The 2011-12 winter Starting Pitching crop is even thinner than it looks now.

Serious leverage.

#6 HomeBrew1901


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Posted 22 December 2010 - 06:40 PM

I don't see any way that he doesn't opt out and it was foolish for the Yankees to give it to him in the first place considering that they were handing him the largest contract out there.

I don't care what he says now, he's going to squeeze the Yankees for every dime he can while the Red Sox offer him Lee money to drive up the price. The only way he doesn't opt out is if he has a season or career ending injury and the Yankees are still on the hook for another 4-5 years.

#7 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 22 December 2010 - 06:41 PM

Can we at least mention that he's said repeatedly he's not going to? Obviously that's no guarantee, but since he was the one who volunteered that info last summer initially (as opposed to being asked), it's certainly worth noting.

ďI donít plan on (using) it,Ē he said Tuesday. ďIíve enjoyed my time living in Los Angeles. Thatís what it was there for Ė to make sure (wife) Sheigh and I didnít come all the way across the country (from their native Georgia) and get stuck in a situation we didnít like.Ē

-JD Drew

Just saying.

#8 Trlicek's Whip

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Posted 22 December 2010 - 06:48 PM

Even if it's only an internal discussion that never sees print, it's rose-colored glasses to take Sabathia on his word: "I'd be the worst agent in the world if I didn't at least go over your options, CC, since we did negotiate the opt-out this year." Wasn't it Rick Pitino who famously said he had the right to change his mind about coaching the Celtics?

#9 Trlicek's Whip

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Posted 22 December 2010 - 07:14 PM

Per the poll options: why would CC wait to see what Oswalt and Carpenter do? They aren't good comps at all. Oswalt and Carpenter are both older. Both are lifers in the NL. CC's been an elite AL pitcher, and hasn't missed a beat pitching in the AL East at its most competitive.

CC's market doesn't reset next year. The neighborhood would be the Yankees offer to Cliff Lee. Factor in the money coming off the books with the Posada, Swisher, and Marte deals expiring, and CC being deaf, blind, and dumb to the opt-out makes even less sense.

Edited by Trlicek's Whip, 22 December 2010 - 07:51 PM.


#10 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 22 December 2010 - 07:29 PM

Well, Oswalt and Carpenter are the closest things to "Elite Pitchers" on the market next year. They aren't meant as comps but rather other guys who will be getting paid. Carpenter is a young 36 next year, having missed 3.5 seasons of his career, and has shown no real signs of aging the last two years.

#11 BroodsSexton

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Posted 22 December 2010 - 08:01 PM

Can we at least mention that he's said repeatedly he's not going to? Obviously that's no guarantee, but since he was the one who volunteered that info last summer initially (as opposed to being asked), it's certainly worth noting.

Duly noted. Can we also at least mention that he'd be creating a shitshow for himself and a complete circus if he said "You know, I might opt out. In fact, given what the market now bears and the fact that the Yankees are going to over a barrel, I think my Yankee-price has just gone up." Obviously that's no guarantee, but since he'd probably like to keep the pressure off of himself and, for now, retain the moral high ground (as opposed to being vilified as a mercenary in the New York press), it's certainly worth noting.

Also, where's the link to when he said that. Curious as to the context in which he volunteered it.

Edited by BroodsSexton, 22 December 2010 - 08:04 PM.


#12 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 22 December 2010 - 08:05 PM

Remember the last Yankee who opted out? The Yankees maintained they would never negotiate with him if he did so, and they really showed him! Where is A-Rod now?

If CC has another Cy Young caliber year, he will opt out, and the Yankees will give him a raise. Come on folks, this isn't hard.

#13 Lollardfish

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Posted 22 December 2010 - 08:20 PM

Remember the last Yankee who opted out? The Yankees maintained they would never negotiate with him if he did so, and they really showed him! Where is A-Rod now?

If CC has another Cy Young caliber year, he will opt out, and the Yankees will give him a raise. Come on folks, this isn't hard.


Unless the Yankees avoid the drama by giving him a pre-emptive raise/extension. Not that I think it's likely, but doable.

#14 Was (Not Wasdin)

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Posted 22 December 2010 - 08:22 PM

How do the mechanics of the opt out clause work vis a vis the Yankees? Could he go to the Yankees this year (say he's in the middle of a monster year) and say "I'd like $3MM per added on to each of the last four years and a year or two added at the end and I'll waive my opt out clause"? Could the Yankees be proactive and approach him, offer him more dough or more years to waive it? Do they negotiate at all before he opts out?


I know he isnt supposed to talk to other teams (cough JD Drew cough) before exercising, but I'm not sure how it works regarding the contracting team.




#15 rembrat


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Posted 22 December 2010 - 08:29 PM

When's the last time a player had an opt out clause and didn't exercise it? Rodriguez did it, Burnett did it, Drew did it, A. Ramirez did it...

Sabathia has the ability, by opting out, of putting the Yankees in a position that they always seem to find themselves. Where there are no suitors for their, now a free agent, player, and still having to up the ante. Rodriguez, Rivera, Jeter..

And of course the Yankees would give him whatever he wanted. Once you subtract Sabathia from their roster that already shaky rotation becomes Piratesque with no clear cut pitcher to replace the ace.

It's the perfect storm.

#16 Average Reds


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Posted 22 December 2010 - 08:37 PM

This is not a close call. Only way he doesn't opt out is if he suffers an injury next season.

#17 jtn46


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Posted 22 December 2010 - 08:47 PM

Unless the Yankees avoid the drama by giving him a pre-emptive raise/extension. Not that I think it's likely, but doable.

Outside of buying out arb years, the Yankees just don't do this.

I know free agency is nuts again, but I have to think most GM's believe CC is going to struggle at 35 given his weight and all the innings. He's not going to get more annually.

#18 Doctor G

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Posted 22 December 2010 - 08:54 PM

Sabathia asked other teams to include an opt-out not just the Yankees.My link . see how the deal got done.

Edited by Doctor G, 22 December 2010 - 08:57 PM.


#19 TomRicardo


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Posted 22 December 2010 - 09:24 PM

Outside of buying out arb years, the Yankees just don't do this.

I know free agency is nuts again, but I have to think most GM's belThatieve CC is going to struggle at 35 given his weight and all the innings. He's not going to get more annually.


The Yankees rotation outside of Sabathia will be Hughes, Burnett, and ....

That is what you call leverage.

#20 EvilEmpire

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Posted 22 December 2010 - 11:57 PM

So?

I think he does. I think he'd be foolish. He has huge leverage over the Yankees on this -- he opts out, leaving them with -- what, AJ Burnett or Phil Hughes as the opening day 2012 starter (assuming they don't sign Carpenter, Oswalt or Wilson)?

He'll still be younger than Lee was this offseason. He'd be a fool not to go get a 7/150 deal from the Yankees.



About the same odds as A. Gonzalez waiting until he becomes a free agent to sign his next contract.

#21 billy ashley

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Posted 23 December 2010 - 12:42 AM

If I had to bet, I'd bet against it.

There are just too many factors working against him opting out.

First, there's the fact that he's already owed a lot money.

Second, a lot more factors could contribute to him finding that his current contract to be likely better than anything on the market.

1) There's a chance he gets hurt, one tweak of his knee and this thread becomes silly.
2) There's a chance the economy suffers from the last of the stimulus running out. This could hurt the little growth we've seen and send us into another recession. Furthermore, there are concerns about the commercial real estate bubble, that could potentially cause another string of bank failures should it go pop; in short, the economy is still pretty damn fragile... who knows, it's possible that next season these contracts look insane.
3) There's a chance he really likes playing in NY and doesn't want to take the heat from the press that would come from opting out.

Basically, for it to make sense for Sabathia to opt out is for him to have a monster season while the economy continues to grow... call me a downer but I don't think either are all that likely. It's more likely that Sabathia will merely be the very good pitcher he's been over 09/10 and the economy still stinks next winter.

#22 jtn46


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Posted 23 December 2010 - 12:47 AM

The Yankees rotation outside of Sabathia will be Hughes, Burnett, and ....

That is what you call leverage.

It is, but CC will turn 32 in 2012. Are teams really going to be lining up to best 4/$92? I have to think the A-Rod opt out fiasco taught that FO and ownership how not to handle a situation like that in the future. I'd love to be wrong, CC at 37 or 38 making $25 million a year would redefine albatross, but I don't really see it happening.

#23 TomRicardo


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Posted 23 December 2010 - 01:17 AM

It is, but CC will turn 32 in 2012. Are teams really going to be lining up to best 4/$92? I have to think the A-Rod opt out fiasco taught that FO and ownership how not to handle a situation like that in the future. I'd love to be wrong, CC at 37 or 38 making $25 million a year would redefine albatross, but I don't really see it happening.


They just did for Cliff Lee.

Edit - ARod taught us you don't need external leverage for the Yankees to outbid themselves, just internal leverage.

Edited by TomRicardo, 23 December 2010 - 01:18 AM.


#24 Buzzkill Pauley


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Posted 23 December 2010 - 08:34 AM

It's his best chance to add guaranteed years at his current rate of pay, so yeah -- if he stays healthy and good, I think he'll opt out.

#25 Toe Nash

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Posted 23 December 2010 - 08:38 AM

2) There's a chance the economy suffers from the last of the stimulus running out. This could hurt the little growth we've seen and send us into another recession. Furthermore, there are concerns about the commercial real estate bubble, that could potentially cause another string of bank failures should it go pop; in short, the economy is still pretty damn fragile... who knows, it's possible that next season these contracts look insane.

Since when has "looking insane" affected the way the Yankees do business?

They already had given A-Rod the biggest contract in the game and they bid against themselves to improve it when he opted out.

The Yankees are their own economy.

#26 86spike


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Posted 23 December 2010 - 09:03 AM

I predict he never actually opts out, but he and the Yanks work out an extension in exchange for him not exercising the opt out.

I foresee another $23M for 2016 and another $23M for 2017.

#27 Crazy Puppy

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Posted 23 December 2010 - 09:15 AM

About the same odds as A. Gonzalez waiting until he becomes a free agent to sign his next contract.

I don't think that comparison makes the point you want it to make. The Red Sox are going to have to offer Gonzalez a 7- or 8-year deal at (or very close to) his FA market value, $20-$23 million per year. If they go to spring training and offer him 4/$92, guess what? He's going to go to free agency after 2011.

#28 SoxFanSince57


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Posted 23 December 2010 - 10:04 AM

I predict he never actually opts out, but he and the Yanks work out an extension in exchange for him not exercising the opt out.

I foresee another $23M for 2016 and another $23M for 2017.


This alternative works for me. It effectively balances the competing interests of the terms of the current contract and CC's agent wanting more money with the fact that CC said publicly that he would not opt out, his apparent satisfaction with the money he will be earning anyway as well as CC's apparent happiness in all things associated with playing for the NYY.

I am old school and will place more weight on what CC said publicly than on the pressure his agent might put on him to opt out.

#29 JMDurron

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Posted 23 December 2010 - 10:14 AM

I voted maybe, but it has absolutely nothing to do with Carpenter or Oswalt. It is all about how Sabathia performs this season, with some added influence from how the rest of the Yankees rotation is constructed and performs. If Sabathia is awesome, he will most likely opt out. If he is mediocre or poor performs badly, he won't opt out. If the Yankees don't get Pettitte back, and trade for *generic awesome pitcher that the Yankees somehow get in exchange for a AA C+ prospect and one of their catchers*, and get a bounceback year from Burnett while 1 of the #5 starting pitcher prospects steps up big time, then that might have some influence on Sabathia, making it marginally less likely that he ops out. If Pettitte returns, the Yankees don't add to the rotation, Burnett sucks again, and/or the 5th starter prospects do nothing and the Yankees struggle and have to trade for a rental vet to be the 5th starter down the stretch, then that would give Sabathia more leverage and make it marginally more likely that he will opt out.

I just don't see this as being an obvious thing right now. It is naive to the point of irrational exuberance to put any stock whatsoever in the public statements made by Sabathia until the very day that he has to make the decision. It is also a bit wildly optimistic, IMO, to assume that it is any kind of certainty that Sabathia will opt out, because there are a wide range of issues that could come up to influence him one way or the other between now and then.

#30 Bob420

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Posted 23 December 2010 - 01:54 PM

I don't think that comparison makes the point you want it to make. The Red Sox are going to have to offer Gonzalez a 7- or 8-year deal at (or very close to) his FA market value, $20-$23 million per year. If they go to spring training and offer him 4/$92, guess what? He's going to go to free agency after 2011.


I'd say the odds are about the same as Gonzalez going back on his word when he said that any Pujols deal will not influence his negotiations with the Red Sox.

"I made a comment to [Red Sox general manager] Theo [Epstein], 'Make the trade happen by itself, and I promise you during the season I'll negotiate,' " Gonzalez told ESPNBoston.com. "I'm not going to come here and be like, 'OK, we'll see you at free agency and see if you outbid the other teams.' We'll negotiate during the season. We're going to be fair. We won't be looking for record-breaking deals. We just want market value.

"We gave them our word that we were going to negotiate during the season in good faith. We're not going to go in there and ask for Albert Pujols' contract, something along those lines.''

CC opting out: 50-50
Adrian Gonzalez upping the price from 7/154 after seeing Pujols get 7/210 : 50-50

#31 Phranchise

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Posted 23 December 2010 - 02:54 PM

Chances CC opts-out? 100%

#32 glennhoffmania


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Posted 23 December 2010 - 03:10 PM

I'd say the odds are about the same as Gonzalez going back on his word when he said that any Pujols deal will not influence his negotiations with the Red Sox.


Explain how a guy who wants to negotiate during the season for an extension getting influenced by a separate deal that may or may not happen at any point is the same as a guy who has a choice to opt out after the season and plays for a team that refuses to negotiate extensions during the season.

#33 Bob420

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Posted 23 December 2010 - 03:46 PM

Explain how a guy who wants to negotiate during the season for an extension getting influenced by a separate deal that may or may not happen at any point is the same as a guy who has a choice to opt out after the season and plays for a team that refuses to negotiate extensions during the season.



It's not the same situation but I think the odds are pretty much the same. They both have gone on record with their positions on where they stand. Adrian Gonzalez has the leverage just as CC does and the Sox made a pretty big investment prospects wise to not let him get away. What is to stop Adrian Gonzalez from saying that 7/154 we talked about, I don't think so.

#34 Dewy4PrezII


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Posted 23 December 2010 - 03:59 PM

It's not the same situation but I think the odds are pretty much the same.


Based on what?

#35 Average Reds


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Posted 23 December 2010 - 04:38 PM

About the same odds as A. Gonzalez waiting until he becomes a free agent to sign his next contract.


I will revisit this post when the time comes....

#36 EvilEmpire

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Posted 23 December 2010 - 05:00 PM

I will revisit this post when the time comes....



Ok.

Both players have leverage to get better deals than they already have, or have at least agreed to the parameters of.
Both players have made comments suggesting that they won't use that leverage.
Both players have reputations as team-first, stand-up guys.

I think the odds of either player using that leverage is pretty close to nil.

#37 glennhoffmania


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Posted 23 December 2010 - 05:04 PM

Ok.

Both players have leverage to get better deals than they already have, or have at least agreed to the parameters of.
Both players have made comments suggesting that they won't use that leverage.
Both players have reputations as team-first, stand-up guys.

I think the odds of either player using that leverage is pretty close to nil.


One player is employed by a team that will not negotiate during the season, has already made a ton of money, and will have more leverage than just about anyone else in recent memory. The other player has yet to sign his big deal, is employed by a team that regularly negotiates during the season, is coming off shoulder surgery, and has said that he wants to negotiate an extension.

But let's continue to turn every single issue into a Yankees vs Red Sox scenario.

#38 EvilEmpire

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Posted 23 December 2010 - 05:18 PM

But let's continue to turn every single issue into a Yankees vs Red Sox scenario.


I'm not sure what your problem is. There are some similarities between Gardner/Ellsbury and the situations of CC/AG. Enough to provoke some discussion, at least. Sox and Yankee fans comparing their respective teams and players...the horror.

I know deep down all you really want to do in this sub forum is to have meaningful discussion about the strengths and weaknesses of the Yankees, but honestly, most of the time it comes across as trolling.

#39 glennhoffmania


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Posted 23 December 2010 - 05:48 PM

Bullshit. I really enjoy discussing Yankee issues on here. Sometimes it's positive, other times it's negative, just like everything else. The issue in this thread is whether CC will opt out. I voted maybe. Whether he opts out has absolutely nothing to do with Gonzalez signing an extension. Different players, different teams, different circumstances, different front office styles. The only similarity is that they're both really good players on big market teams. I have zero interest in trolling in this forum or anywhere else. If there is some causal connection between what one or the other will do, please point it out and I'd be happy to discuss that. Otherwise there is a huge thread in the Sox forum for discussing Gonzalez, which you have full access to as a member.

#40 Phranchise

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Posted 23 December 2010 - 06:37 PM

I see I'm a "member" but not a "supporter" - what's the difference? Thanks in advance.

#41 Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat


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Posted 23 December 2010 - 11:16 PM

I see I'm a "member" but not a "supporter" - what's the difference? Thanks in advance.

You haven't paid for a subscription.

#42 ivanvamp


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Posted 24 December 2010 - 11:40 AM

They just did for Cliff Lee.


CC will be 31 when the 2011 season ends. Most likely, he'll be coming off another top 5 in the Cy Young award voting kind of season. The Yankees desperately wanted Cliff Lee and the thought of losing Sabathia will be intolerable. Imagine the leverage if Pettitte doesn't return, AJ continues his decline, and Hughes has a bit of a disappointing year. If that happens, Sabathia will be worth, to the Yankees, well in excess of $25 million a year.

So I don't know if he'd opt out, because maybe during that window they work out something, but I expect CC, in some shape, matter, or form, to sign something with NY that keeps him there through 2017 at least, with those last 2 seasons being worth between $25-30 million per season (whatever pulls his AAV from 2012-2017 above $25 million per).

He's in the catbird seat, really. If he has a crappy year (unlikely, but possible), oh bummer, he just sticks with his current $23 mil per year contract. If those things I describe above happen, there's no doubt he's going to sign a new deal or an big-time extension.

#43 mikeot

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Posted 24 December 2010 - 01:05 PM

Ideally..

1. The Yankees acquire no one of long term significance this offseason or at the deadline.
2. The Yankees miss the playoffs.
3. Sabathia has a huge year.
4. The rest of the Yankee staff is mediocre to bad to hurt.
5. The 2011-12 winter Starting Pitching crop is even thinner than it looks now.

Serious leverage.


I am physically aroused by this scenario

#44 abty

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Posted 25 December 2010 - 09:40 AM

"but I expect CC, in some shape, matter, or form"
Most likely the shape of a pear. Oh, I'm sorry. I see what you are doing.

With that said, the only way he opts out is if the Yankees are declining and the Angels are both on the upswing and offer him a great deal.

#45 21st Century Sox

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Posted 25 December 2010 - 10:17 AM

"but I expect CC, in some shape, matter, or form"
Most likely the shape of a pear. Oh, I'm sorry. I see what you are doing.

With that said, the only way he opts out is if the Yankees are declining and the Angels are both on the upswing and offer him a great deal.


I expect CC working out an extension, in lieu of opting out. The Angels cannot offer him anything until he opts out. He would have to become a FA first. (Tampering)

#46 abty

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Posted 25 December 2010 - 10:24 AM

That's what I meant. I mean I can see him (If he sees another team can offer him a better chance to win/overpay for him) opting out entirely to allow the Angels to be that team to bring him home/etc.

#47 sfip


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Posted 25 December 2010 - 10:32 AM

Can we at least mention that he's said repeatedly he's not going to? Obviously that's no guarantee, but since he was the one who volunteered that info last summer initially (as opposed to being asked), it's certainly worth noting.

You forgot the "h". He's the same guy who said repeatedly he wants to pitch in the National League on the West Coast...then signed with the Yankees.

Edited by sfip, 25 December 2010 - 11:03 AM.


#48 acf69

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Posted 26 December 2010 - 01:22 AM

Of course he will opt out, he negotiated that right and will use it. Why would he have insisted on the clause, he knows he is at the perfect age during the opt out year to get one more big contract. It is a win-win for him.

#49 glennhoffmania


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Posted 26 December 2010 - 02:45 PM

I expect CC working out an extension, in lieu of opting out. The Angels cannot offer him anything until he opts out. He would have to become a FA first. (Tampering)


But NY refuses to negotiate during the season. If they didn't do it for Jeter or Rivera, how can they do it for Sabathia? Unless they do something that goes against what they say (which would be a complete shock given the FO's actions lately) he'll play out the season and then have to opt out unless they manage to extend him between Yankee elimination day and the deadline for him to exercise his option.

#50 crow216


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Posted 26 December 2010 - 03:56 PM

But NY refuses to negotiate during the season. If they didn't do it for Jeter or Rivera, how can they do it for Sabathia? Unless they do something that goes against what they say (which would be a complete shock given the FO's actions lately) he'll play out the season and then have to opt out unless they manage to extend him between Yankee elimination day and the deadline for him to exercise his option.


They don't negotiate during the season, but nothing is stopping them from having discussions and putting out feelers to see what he's thinking. They DO have some time right after they eliminated or the ws ends too.