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Rhoids Sports Analysis: Game State Wins

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#1 dnramo

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Posted 21 September 2005 - 12:04 AM

I found this linked over on primer. It looks interesting.

Rhoids Sports Analysis

AL hitters ranked by game state wins

By (roughly) subtracting the probability of a win before a player's PA from the probability of a win after a player's PA, these guys calculate the win probability change attributable to each PA and thus derives a "probabalistic win" model that they call game state wins. There are problems with this sort of metric, of course, but some people are stumbling blindly around the concept of leverage so I figured I'd point it out.

Among the caveats to include in discussing this statistic:
1) Does not include defense
2) It doesn't appear to be using park factors with its 2005 numbers, so the numbers have the potential to change once the season is over and park factors are finalized.
3) The system assumes that the win probability after after the PA is the average win probability for that event, as far as I can tell. This approach beings us to a line-drawing contest where we're looking at statistical averages for some things in evaluating players (game win probability matrix states) while ignoring statistical averages on other things (the win value of a double, for example).
4) The site fails to address the question of whether a player deserves "extra credit" for good timing. It merely measures that "extra credit" using game wins probability matrix states.

Edited by dnramo, 21 September 2005 - 12:05 AM.

#2 Worst Trade Evah

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Posted 21 September 2005 - 05:54 AM

Interesting stuff. Ortiz doesn't get listed in a number of the pages, apparently because they don't consider dh a position, but he does get selected by them as the AL hitter of the year.

Their best value team is interesting: basically all A's and Indians.

edit: nm, found what I was looking for, in the data dump side, but I needed a different browser.

Their leaders for Game State Wins in the AL are:

MVPapi: 14.9
SlapRod: 11.8
Vlad: 10.5
Ichiro!: 10.3
Hafner: 10.2
Sizemore: 9.8
Crawford: 9.4
Roberts 9.3
CI: 9.2
Young: 8.8
Johnny Jesus: 8.7
Shemp 8.3

Their leaders for Inning State Runs in the AL are:

MVPapi: 106.7
SlapRod: 93.1
Unless you are referring to Kanekoa Texeira... you don't know how to spell his last name: 83.2
Hafner: 80.2
Sheffield: 79.2
Manny: 79.2
Vlad: 75.3
Sexson: 72.6
HGHiambi: 67.6
Ibanez: 64.1

Ortiz also leads in James Runs Created, Johnson Runs Created, and Runs Produced. The timing of Papi's production seems to be worth an extra 3-4 wins, which also gibes with that suggestion by EV earlier, by the lurker with the great post in the MVP thread, and with a few other tidbits (pythagoran over-performance).

Edited by Worst Trade Evah, 21 September 2005 - 06:18 AM.