34 replies to this topic

[URI]

Show your work...I want to be able to look back on this thread in November.

[Seels]

It's risky in the sense that any trade involving prospects is risky, but this is the exact type of trade teams like Boston should make. I love it.

[Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat]

No reservations. I've already made sexy-fuck to this trade

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I want to say first that I hope all three of the prospects going to SDP have excellent careers playing in MLB, and they'll be a loss to the farm system.

That being said, the fact that this deal doesn't remove any pieces from the major league roster puzzle OR deplete the farm of prospects where the system doesn't have other depth, makes me want. Want it bad.

[EdRalphRomero]

I feel like I am being asked to evaluate a painting while staring at one small corner.

I, like many on the board, would have preferred a deal for Justin Upton. But I don't know what the demands were for Upton. I assume they were substantially larger and therefore this was the best use of resources (but that is a big caveat).

I am assuming this deal does not get done without an extension and at terms which reflect some discount over the projected FA value of Gonzalez -- not necessarily a huge discount, but some.

I am assuming the Red Sox doctors are doing the proper work to evaluate his shoulder.

With those three substantial caveats, it seems likely to be a good deal. Even if one of these prospects morphs into Hanley Ramirez part 2, I can accept that. The outcome of the bets that prospects represent can't be the basis for a trade evaluation. It has to be done based on a reasonable projected value (and an accordant current valuation).

Gonzalez is a middle of the line-up hitter and a plus defender. He is young, and wants to play on the big stage. This is the kind of deal that teams like the Red Sox should make.

[LondonSox]

I voted risky only because of the shoulder not because he won't hit, there is a view that if he is healthy this year then fine sign him as a free agent next year, if he's got a long term shoulder issue it could be very bad. That's my only reservation and this seemed to be the best selection for it.
I still would do the trade though!

[Fratboy]

I'm gonna go with sexy-fuck on this for now, but if they don't hammer out an extension before the end of the deadline, I'm more inclined to go with the "risky coz he might bounce after next season" option.

He's going from the worst park in the majors for him to a park tailor-made for his swing. You look up sexy-fuck trade in the dictionary, and there's a picture of this beside it.

The world series window is open for the next 5 years.

[someoneanywhere]

EdRalphRomero, on 05 December 2010 - 11:18 AM, said:

I feel like I am being asked to evaluate a painting while staring at one small corner.

I, like many on the board, would have preferred a deal for Justin Upton. But I don't know what the demands were for Upton. I assume they were substantially larger and therefore this was the best use of resources (but that is a big caveat).

Now here's an explosive question. What makes everyone here so certain that another trade isn't possible? Let's say they land Crawford, not Werth. Wouldn't that conceivably put someone like Upton back in play? I'm not saying they will do another major deal, only that the other dominoes have yet to fall. They lost a lot of upside talent yesterday, but as I posted in the megathread, it was mainly young -- talent, in short, they can recoup quickly via quantity and quality in the 2011 draft. They'd hesitate, but they have some pieces moveable off the ML roster, and a few good chips still in MiLB, to do another deal without gutting the organization.

The FO means business. I wouldn't put it past them.

[JMDurron]

Sexy-fuck, regardless of whether or not the extension happens. The talent-for-talent portion of the trade just looks great to me. I had assumed that the cost would be far higher in prospects than it appears to have been, so I'm quite happy with this deal.

I will be upset if the deal falls apart over the extension negotiations, even though I understand that Theo needs to be willing to walk away from any deal. I just don't think that the team will have any problem signing Gonzalez to an extension at a later date if it comes to that.

[SumnerH]

Fratboy, on 05 December 2010 - 11:24 AM, said:

I'm gonna go with sexy-fuck on this for now, but if they don't hammer out an extension before the end of the deadline, I'm more inclined to go with the "risky coz he might bounce after next season" option.

This is pretty much exactly how I feel. I'm also a little skittish about the shoulder, but that's just one of those risks you have to take for an opportunity like this.

[nayrbrey]

fuck potential, get me someone who has proven they can do it in MLB.

They'll get the extension done and he'll be our 1Bman/DH for the next 6+ years.

[mt8thsw9th]

Fratboy, on 05 December 2010 - 11:24 AM, said:

I'm gonna go with sexy-fuck on this for now, but if they don't hammer out an extension before the end of the deadline, I'm more inclined to go with the "risky coz he might bounce after next season" option.

Isn't the trade nixed if there's no extension?

[SMU_Sox]

I voted that the price was right but he might have production issues. I am assuming that we can extend him. That being said I have 2 concerns:

1) Can we extend him? If we can't extend him then we probably paid too high of a price for one year of A-Gone. Looking back at the very small sample size of the new Sox ownership group history of drafting we can estimate 3 top prospects would have probably given us more fWAR than one year of A-Gone.

2) His shoulder injury might be more serious than we think. 4-5 months of not being able to swing? It's definitely a risk.

Even with those concerns I still like this trade - a lot. Maybe not sexy-fuck, but probably steamy make-out and make more plans for later.

[Razor Shines]

The last time I was this excited about an acquisition was the Manny Ramirez free agent signing back in 2000.

Gonzalez (~ .570 slugging percentage outside of Petco) could potentially have that type of impact on the lineup.

I was expecting the Sox to give up much more in terms of talent. Basically, I was expecting something like the three players they traded plus Kalish, or maybe even Bard. Even if one or two of the prospects turn into an All-Star caliber player down the road, I have a feeling there won't be much regret on the part of the Sox.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The only way the poll makes any sense is to assume that there is no extension - although I find it diffucult to believe that Theo is going to give up Kelly and Rizzo and Fuentes for a one-year rental.

If the Sox can sign him to an extension (or less probablly change the players going over if there is no extension), definitely SF. This is the reason you keep stockpiling draft picks.

[Archer1979]

I can't see how anyone would not like this trade. Three (possibly four) prospects not expected to contribute at the major league level until 2013 at the earliest for a guy that you want at the plate with the game on the line... has to happen. They're also getting comp picks back for Martinez and Beltre which softens the blow. When you look at the chips that the Sox still hold that are actually closer to being major league ready (Kalish for one), Theo made a hell of a deal that makes this club a viable contender for 2011 and 2012, which is remarkable as he still has a card or two to play in the FA market.

[redsoxstiff]

6'2"...225 lbs...bats left with a Fenway swing capability...

Hits and hits with power playing in Petco...

28 years young...WANTS to play here...

Coupla Gold Gloves...

Has a rep as a Good guy...

Will make shitloads of moolah and fans...Good luck!

With YOUK AT 3RD and Adrian at 1st...We may have two of the very best players ...period...[or three] at the corners...

There is always a down side...WE may have given up God's gifts in the three young players...mais c'est la vie...

[LahoudOrBillyC]

I don't think the Red Sox are losing as much as it appears. Though the three/four prospects are going away, they will be adding those prospects back in draft picks for Beltre and Martinez. If you consider Beltre/Martinez as the alternate path they could have chosen, what the club is doing is delaying the pay off from the system by the years, something they can then do again in two years with the prospects they draft this summer, with Gonzalez and perhaps Werth as the payoff for that delay.

[CPT Neuron]

My initial thought was to lay this trade down and hit it Mike Brady style......but more diligent thought was needed.

The price in terms of talent is correct - Kelly, Rizzo, Fuentes, + is about the minimum one could have possibly ever hoped for in terms of "cost of acquisition".

The "production" piece that concerns me isn't about the numbers he puts up - I am quite certain that he will put up bountiful "slash" numbers, and the statisticians on the board will have perpetual, ED style priaprism for him..........my concern is that the cost will adversely impact the flexibility required to maximize overall productivity of the organization. Now, I believe they can essentially print $20.00's on Yawkey Way, and this type of a big splash only accentuates that, so I hope I am wrong and I hope they get real comfortable with the idea of throwing some luxury tax $$ into the pot as I see no way, with the extension that I sincerely believe will get done, to avoid that outcome.

[chrisfont9]

Is anyone else a little disturbed that we can't make sexy-fuck to this trade until a lot of money is paid first?

[sfip]

There's no bleeping way Adrian Gonzalez leaves the Red Sox as a free agent after the 2011 season. If you want to quote me on that, go right ahead.

[redsoxstiff]

chrisfont9, on 05 December 2010 - 12:06 PM, said:

Is anyone else a little disturbed that we can't make sexy-fuck to this trade until a lot of money is paid first?

When you live by laundry...you die by laundry...There will be more money left on the dresser later...

[ookami7m]

The Red Sox got Adrian Gonzalez for prospects and NO ONE off the Major League roster - and without giving up Iglesias or Kalish. So yeah, I'm loving this trade. I'll be shocked if there's no extension signed at some point soon. If he bounces after the season, it will hurt a bit more, but it’s the risk we take at this point.

[IpswichSox]

This trade is an epic no-brainer. For the chips not to include anyone from the 25-man roster or anyone who would likely be contributors to that roster until 2012 at the earlist, the FO deserves our continued gratitude. In Theo we sexy-fuck.

[smastroyin]

I chose the prospect price too high but really that doesn't fit with my risky.

The risky to me is that this is a very good player who makes a strong part of the team stronger. The team still has weak parts which this trade does nothing to address. Not saying it is a bad trade, just saying that now the Sox have three less pieces with which to improve the CF, C, and RP situations. So, it's more like an incomplete. There is a lot of off-season to go.

The other incomplete is we don't know how much money he signs for yet.

[allaboutthesox]

Fratboy, on 05 December 2010 - 11:24 AM, said:

I'm gonna go with sexy-fuck on this for now, but if they don't hammer out an extension before the end of the deadline, I'm more inclined to go with the "risky coz he might bounce after next season" option.

He's going from the worst park in the majors for him to a park tailor-made for his swing. You look up sexy-fuck trade in the dictionary, and there's a picture of this beside it.

The world series window is open for the next 5 years.

This.

[86spike]

Best trade since Schilling.

[yecul]

I voted sexy fuck, but basically I think this is a fair deal all around. Boston gave up plenty, but so did SD. In fact, you could easily argue that this is a bit of a discount due to his contract demands and his surgery.

Hard to see the deal going through without a deal happening. In the unlikely event that they do trade for him and let him walk, then I do not like it. Again, hard to see that happening.

[Dogman2]

Sexy fuck is fun to say.

[Plympton91]

It's very disappointing that once again the Red Sox are letting an amount of money that they will surely waste elsewhere stand between them and completing a blockbuster deal. I mean, they lost Alex Rodriguez over $10 million and then went out and spent almost $80 million on Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo instead.

Casey Kelly will be repeating AA next year, and, if he's anything less than an Eastern League All-Star his value will be less next year than it is now. Even though Rizzo is the flavor of the month, there's no guarantee he's even going to beat out Lars Anderson in the all propsect lineup of "The Boomer"'s fantasies, let alone be a reasonable approximation of Adrian Gonzalez. At this point, a logical career projection for Fuentes is Joey Gathright.

Then again, as a lifelong Red Sox Fan, maybe I should just get used to the idea that 2004 and 2007 were long-overdue abberations, but that the destiny of the franchise is to be a perennial bridesmaid.

Speaking of bridesmaids, did Epstein ever actually get married, or did he leave his fiance standing at the altar after running a few more spreadsheets?

[EdRalphRomero]

I vote blue balls

[BosRedSox5]

No question that it was a good trade. We didn't give up any really crucial chips for this. Rizzo is redundant now, Kelly will be missed but replaced and Fuentes is a mixed bag. I voted Gonzalez might have production issues though.

It's true that he's coming to a much more hitter friendly park, but consider this. He's changing leagues, going to one with supposedly better competition overall, and an entirely new set of pitchers. He'd catch up eventually if that's the case, but isn't that going to dampen the projections for him somewhat?

[DLew On Roids]

Winning begets revenue which begets winning. It's a virtuous cycle. High-revenue teams take a risk breaking in talent to the Major Leagues because their growing pains can contribute to breaking that virtuous cycle. When you have the opportunity to exchange potential talent for a known quantity, you do it.

Look at the history of these sorts of deals. What was the last mega-player for prospects deal where the buyer felt like it should have kept the prospects? The Bartolo Colon-to-Montreal deal? When a buyer regrets the deal, it's almost always when it's dealing for the Doyle Alexanders of the world.

Edited by DLew On Roids, 06 December 2010 - 09:09 AM.

[Alternate34]

I love the trade and want to make sweet sexy fuck to it but I also think it is risky because of the shoulder issues.

First, obviously securing a near .400 OBP monster into the middle of the lineup is the baseball definition of sexy fuck. That his SLG has been mired in the Petco wasteland makes the deal all the sweeter. His swing may elevate the Red Sox to the point of taking the league record for doubles and making it their bitch. A league change adjustment might take away from some of that, but I believe the park effect will overwhelm that. His spray charts are too Fenway made.

The prospects, well, whatever. Fuentes is very far away. Kelly is good, but seems to peak as a number 2 starter. I can't imagine the Red Sox can't find another #2 starter. Rizzo is good but redundant. It would be nice to be able to save money some point in the future, but the Red Sox can afford to pay some guys. We have other prospects to save cost elsewhere (Iglesias is quite nice and has a major league quality skill already, Lars will hopefully provide us a cost effective DH, Kalish is looking nice as a cost effective RF, and Reddick may rebound, or at least let us save on a 4th OF).

The shoulder is the only irritating part of the trade. A labrum injury can be pretty terrible. I do not want Gonzalez rushing back only to have it recur. Even the shoulder could provide some upside. He played all of last season with the injury, and it may have depressed his hitting ability. If the surgery gets him a healthy shoulder, it may be another source of improvement beyond his changing parks.

[Average Reds]

I don't view this deal as being mutually exclusive to other deals, so I have no concerns there. I also assume (with caveats firmly in place) that an extension will be hammered out once all sides are comfortable with each other this spring and that the appropriate mutually-protective language relating to the shoulder is inserted in the contract.

I think Gonzalez has a big upside leaving Petco Park and I'm glad the Sox will have him next year and hopefully for many more. The risk here may be significant, but IMO it is acceptable given the upside.