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Red Sox acquire Adrian Gonzalez
#251
Posted 04 December 2010 - 11:55 AM
#252
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:00 PM
j44thor, on 04 December 2010 - 11:48 AM, said:
Blanks was the reason I didn't see Rizzo as part of the deal. I am surprised on many levels by this deal.
Looks like the Padres are okay with a 6'6" 170lb corner OFer.
#253
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:01 PM
The article hasn't been updated, but the headline blurb indicates that the deal is done pending a physical.
#254
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:02 PM
LahoudOrBillyC, on 04 December 2010 - 11:55 AM, said:
Youkilis may be underrated in the national media relative to his actual production but let's not get carried away. Kevin Youkilis' career best OPS+ is 157 (by over 10 pts over 2009) and was in an injury-shortened 2010 (age 31) season. This is only a shade above Manny's career OPS+ (155).
Edited by czar, 04 December 2010 - 12:03 PM.
#255
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:05 PM
But seriously, I don't know how you can't love this as a Red Sox fan. Personally, I thought keeping one of Rizzo, Kelly, and Iglesias would be a huge coup on Theo's part and that's how it went down.
Edited by BannedbyNYYFans.com, 04 December 2010 - 12:14 PM.
#256
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:05 PM
LahoudOrBillyC, on 04 December 2010 - 11:55 AM, said:
If the Sox bag another top RHH this offseason (Werth or Upton), we're looking at 2003 levels of offense again.
1. Pedroia
2. Drew
3. Youkilis
4. Gonzalez
5. Werth/Upton
6. Ortiz
7. Lowrie
8. Cameron/Ellsbury
9. Salty
Would be a frickin' unreal lineup of XBH.
#257
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:06 PM
Buzzkill Pauley, on 04 December 2010 - 11:49 AM, said:
#258
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:07 PM
#259
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:09 PM
Buzzkill Pauley, on 04 December 2010 - 12:05 PM, said:
#261
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:11 PM
SoxFanSince57, on 04 December 2010 - 12:00 PM, said:
Looks like the Padres are okay with a 6'6" 170lb corner OFer.
He should move pretty well at that weight, but I worry about stamina.
But seriously, either Rizzo or Blanks might easily be traded within two years for blue-chip help elsewhere on the diamond.
#262
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:11 PM
Let's say Theo goes out and grabs a couple of relievers at $2M/yr apiece. If he also trades for Napoli, we can project arb-year 2011 paychecks for him, Ellsbury and Paps at roughly $5M, $2.5M and $11.5M. All told, their payroll would come in at around $164M for 2011, with the luxury tax cap at $178M. And next year, with the cap likely to rise under a new CBA, the gap between that and the Sox 2012 payroll would likely be even wider despite Gonzalez's salary kicking in huge.
Their only other projectable big-ticket concerns for the next couple of years are an extension of some sort for Buchholz to buy out some or all of his arb eligibility, figuring whether Salty and Kalish can stick at catcher and RF, and deciding what to do about 3B after Youk's deal ends in 2012. And if Salty and Kalish work out while Lowrie and Iglesias wind up being the answers at 3B and SS (yes, those are all BIG ifs), Theo will pretty much be sitting around with his feet up on his desk playing Nerf hoop while puffing big-ass cigars Red Auerbach style.
Then you consider all the touted 2010 draft picks they signed, the picks they have stockpiled for 2011, and how much young, cost-controlled talent they've managed to retain. Seriously, just think about all the names that have been bandied about in all the myriad Adrian Gonzalez trade rumors and proposals floated here and in the press since Teixeira signed with New York:
Buchholz
Lowrie
Ellsbury
Kalish
Doubront
Lars
Reddick
Bowden
etc.
If the final package is the trio that's been reported, and the PTBNL ends up being a 21-30 prospect at best, the fact that Theo Epstein will have pulled this off ...
A) Without trading any of the above players, while
B) Adding either Crawford or Werth, and
C) Still remaining under the luxury tax threshold for years to come
... would be absolutely un-fucking-believable.
Oh, and that photoshop of AG in Sox colors has me quite happy in the pants.
.
Edited by mabrowndog, 04 December 2010 - 12:20 PM.
#263
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:12 PM
I do wonder though if the PTBNL is dependent on whether or not they sign Werth or Crawford, thus making an outfielder more expendable.
#264
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:16 PM
mt8thsw9th, on 04 December 2010 - 12:09 PM, said:
#265
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:16 PM
mt8thsw9th, on 04 December 2010 - 12:09 PM, said:
C'mon dude, that's obviously VicMart. Or is it?
Edited by sodenj5, 04 December 2010 - 12:18 PM.
#266
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:17 PM
czar, on 04 December 2010 - 12:02 PM, said:
#267
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:18 PM
"Adrian Gonzalez has been at Massachusetts General Hospital this morning undergoing a physical and MRIs on his shoulder. It appears the Padre slugger could soon be a Red Sox as Gonzalez' agent, John Boggs, is set to meet with the Red Sox this afternoon in an effort to hammer out a contract extension."
#268
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:21 PM
Sinistas, on 04 December 2010 - 12:01 PM, said:
The article hasn't been updated, but the headline blurb indicates that the deal is done pending a physical.
Well that and the little matter of the extension.
#269
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:24 PM
Quote
Source: Gonzalez has already taken physical, repaired right shoulder "should be fine,'' just minor tests still to complete.
#270
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:27 PM
mabrowndog, on 04 December 2010 - 12:11 PM, said:
If they sign him to an extension, wouldn't his new AAV count against the cap starting this season?
#271
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:28 PM
ngruz25, on 04 December 2010 - 10:19 AM, said:
He's hit over .950 exactly once, over .900 one other time, and is coming off of shoulder surgery. Moving out of Petco should help, but his next best OPS+ after those years was a 139, which is still a sub-.950 OPS (just barely) in Fenway IIRC.
Expecting a .950-1.000 OPS on a regular basis means believing that the last 2 years have established a new baseline, and that the shoulder will be back to 100%. That's not irrational, but I wouldn't call it pretty much a lock.
#272
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:30 PM
mabrowndog, on 04 December 2010 - 12:11 PM, said:
#274
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:34 PM
SumnerH, on 04 December 2010 - 12:28 PM, said:
His three year road split has him putting up .989 OPS. He now, as a lefty that loves to use the opposite field, gets to play half him games in Fenway. I'd say there's a reasonable expectation of him having a .950 OPS under those conditions.
#275
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:34 PM
Excuse me for a moment.
#276
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:35 PM
Savin Hillbilly, on 04 December 2010 - 12:06 PM, said:
Yeah, I think the "surest thing" of the Sox package is Rizzo while the "highest upside" belongs to Kelly.
Because the risk-reward is skewed more greatly for pitching, I expect to see another high-risk/high-reward pitcher in the deal. Somebody young, who throws hard, and gets strikeouts. Names like Younginer, Workman, Balcom-Miller, Cabral, and Rivera seem likely to me to be on the list (while Pimentel and Ranaudo probably are not).
#277
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:36 PM
SumnerH, on 04 December 2010 - 12:28 PM, said:
#278
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:36 PM
RedOctober3829, on 04 December 2010 - 12:32 PM, said:
We just went through this with Beckett. Wasn't one of the benefits of not executing the extension until after opening day that it delayed the luxury tax hit? Otherwise the extension would've been factored in for 2010.
#280
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:38 PM
Wingack, on 04 December 2010 - 12:12 PM, said:
I do wonder though if the PTBNL is dependent on whether or not they sign Werth or Crawford, thus making an outfielder more expendable.
What recent trades do you think show that the value of a guy a year from FA is significantly higher than this, out of curiosity?
Seems to me that's the kind of analysis that helps a discussion isn't it?
#281
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:39 PM
Quote
Getting a little ahead of myself: Adrian Gonzalez vs. Cliff Lee -- 7 for 10, 3 doubles, 1 home run, 3 RBI...
#282
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:39 PM
RedOctober3829, on 04 December 2010 - 12:32 PM, said:
But AAV is what counts against the luxury tax, not 2011 salary. I'm pretty sure any extension signed now bumps up his AAV calculated for LT purposes. IIRC, this was discussed in the Beckett talks last year.
EDIT: Beaten by ghoff who appears to be on the same page.
Edited by czar, 04 December 2010 - 12:40 PM.
#283
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:41 PM
Maalox, on 04 December 2010 - 12:34 PM, said:
You do realize that the thread title *which hasn't been updated since late last night) won't have an impact on whether the trade goes through or not, right?
#284
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:43 PM
MHead81, on 04 December 2010 - 11:26 AM, said:
I don't like having players on my team who unreasonably won't play certain positions and/or hit in certain batting slots that you'd think would suit them perfectly.
Youks was about average at third during his 500 some innings in '09. Git 'er done.
#285
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:43 PM
Maalox, on 04 December 2010 - 12:34 PM, said:
Excuse me for a moment.
This epic Maalox post has been brought to you by...
AND 
AND BY THE LETTER
G
Edited by mabrowndog, 04 December 2010 - 12:45 PM.
#286
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:43 PM
RedOctober3829, on 04 December 2010 - 12:32 PM, said:
I don't think that's true. I think if he signs a deal now his AAV will be adjusted up, while if they wait until after the season starts to announce it, then it locks in.
So I half expect him to get the Ortiz/Crisp/Beckett treatment, and that his agent will be "working out some things" with Theo until April.
#287
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:43 PM
#288
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:45 PM
#289
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:46 PM
SumnerH, on 04 December 2010 - 12:28 PM, said:
Expecting a .950-1.000 OPS on a regular basis means believing that the last 2 years have established a new baseline, and that the shoulder will be back to 100%. That's not irrational, but I wouldn't call it pretty much a lock.
Did you look at his career splits? The guy is as close to a lock to put up a .900-1.000 OPS in baseball as there is once you get him away from the black hole that is Petco. Just to provide full service, for his career Adri(a not e)n Gonzalez has hit .303/.376/.568 with an tOPS+ of 114 in anyplace not called Petco Park.
And just in case I am not clear enough about how awful Petco is to hit, it has led the MLB in lowest park factor for four of the seven years it has been open. It is the only stadium to show up more than once during that time. Petco Park is damn habitual recidivist when it comes to stealing runs. I fully expect the prospect-humpers here to remind us of the awesome of Casey Kelly when he is routinely throwing shut-outs at home in a few years. Old Fart Tree could probably be a serviceable middle reliever there and his shoulder and knee both look like the contents of a tasty carnitas burrito that you can get nearby that park.
#290
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:51 PM
SumnerH, on 04 December 2010 - 12:28 PM, said:
Expecting a .950-1.000 OPS on a regular basis means believing that the last 2 years have established a new baseline, and that the shoulder will be back to 100%. That's not irrational, but I wouldn't call it pretty much a lock.
mt8thsw9th, on 04 December 2010 - 12:34 PM, said:
I know I'm optimistic but his road splits over the last three years coupled with that drool-worthy hit chart (how some of those blasts to right weren't gone is beyond me) are where I'm coming from. Petco is a dreadful place to hit and his road splits are quite telling, in the Adrian Beltre vein. I'm giving quite a bit of weight to his past few seasons as I think he he seems like a perfect example of a took-a-while-to-reach-his-potential-but-is-now-there kind of guy. Sort of like how I'm not really expecting 2007 Kevin Youkilis to walkt through that door, I'm expecting 2008-2010 Kevin Youkilis.
Edited by ngruz25, 04 December 2010 - 12:52 PM.
#291
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:54 PM
mt8thsw9th, on 04 December 2010 - 12:41 PM, said:
What were we talking about again?
#292
#293
Posted 04 December 2010 - 12:56 PM
SumnerH, on 04 December 2010 - 12:28 PM, said:
One thing to watch out for, though: his IBB totals in recent years have been off the charts. His overall BB rates look great, but his NIBB rates are a bit more pedestrian, on the order of 10%. He won't get intentionally walked much batting in front of Youk at Fenway. If you take his 35 IBB from last year and reduce it to something rational like 10, and parse those other 25 PA at his normal rates, the OBP dips to about .370, and you've got a sub-.900 hitter. Certainly that will translate up at Fenway, because the ISO will probably go up by .050 or so, but counting on him as an upper-.900's OPS guy might be a bit overoptimistic, especially when you remember that he'll be adjusting to a new league.
And as long as I'm going to play Debbie Downer, we also should note that Gonzalez is (according to Fangraphs) literally the slowest regular player in baseball. He will make us wax nostalgic about the way Victor Martinez scooted around the basepaths.
#294
Posted 04 December 2010 - 01:00 PM
PedroKsBambino, on 04 December 2010 - 12:38 PM, said:
Seems to me that's the kind of analysis that helps a discussion isn't it?
Well, Teixeira (since there are going to be a lot of comparisons) he was a year and a half away from position but I think it is fair to compare the two deals. At the time of that deal, Texas received both the best catching prospect in the game and the best shortstop prospect in the game, plus Nefali Feliz and Matt Harrison.
#295
Posted 04 December 2010 - 01:01 PM
Dogman2, on 04 December 2010 - 12:55 PM, said:
Not to be a Buzzkill (oh wait...) but there's absolutely no chance AG gets pitched the same way in Fenway that he does in Petco.
Instead, his chart will probably look more like Ortiz 2005 at Fenway. Which is cool by me.
#296
Posted 04 December 2010 - 01:02 PM
Quote
“It’s great,” Youkilis said. “The way he hits at PETCO [Park], he can hit at Fenway Park because he can use the [left field] wall to his advantage. It’s going to be great to have him on the team. That’ll be a huge acquisition for us if everything works out.”
Never change, Youk
#297
Posted 04 December 2010 - 01:09 PM
Buzzkill Pauley, on 04 December 2010 - 01:01 PM, said:
Instead, his chart will probably look more like Ortiz 2005 at Fenway. Which is cool by me.
Do you mean the .425/.603 line with 15.7% BB and 22.7 LD%. Fucking-A indeed.
#298
Posted 04 December 2010 - 01:10 PM
Interesting that NYTimes.com still has nothing posted on this trade right now other than the AP item.
#299
Posted 04 December 2010 - 01:10 PM
This could end up being a nice trade for the Padres, though if it does it will (IMO) be because of the development of Rizzo.
#300
Posted 04 December 2010 - 01:11 PM
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