1262 replies to this topic

[cahlton]

http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=5880440

I don't understand how you make this trade without proof, in the form of performance, that Gonzalez's shoulder is 100%.

Addendum: The deal reportedly involves Red Sox minor-league talent only.

Edited by cahlton, 06 December 2010 - 05:25 PM.

[Mugsys Jock]

http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=5880440

I don't understand how you make this trade without proof, in the form of performance, that Gonzalez's shoulder is 100%.

...or that he's willing to negotiate a contract extension.

[E5 Yaz]

The deal reportedly involves Red Sox minor-league talent only.

That's the scary part

[cahlton]

...or that he's willing to negotiate a contract extension.

That seems like a given. Or at least I hope so.

[Savin Hillbilly]

That seems like a given. Or at least I hope so.

Absolutely has to be--unless the talent price for Gonzalez is improbably small.

[RedOctober3829]

pgammo
Red Sox and Padres not "close" but talking Gonzalez. Boston trying to make it without impacting major league roster

Gammons

Kelly, Rizzo, Iglesias, and Kalish? You're going to have to go high on prospects if there are no major-leaguers involved. Maybe 3 or 4 instead of 5 prospects due to his uncertainty with his injured shoulder.

They better send his MRIs to James Andrews to make sure his shoulder is OK.

[SoxFanSince57]

What are the chances that this is a planted story to influence Beltre? Reports come out that Adrian is in discussions with the A's. Then he says he prefers to stay with the Sox if the length of the contract is to his liking. Now we have rumors that the Sox will unload the farm for a guy who has all the motivation in the world to test the FA market in one year.

Hoyer doesn't have that much leverage IMO. I just can't see any team offering SD anything more than what AG is worth for one year. And then there are those pesky reports about his shoulder.

Color me skeptical.

Spring training in doubt for A-Gonz: Padres 1B Adrian Gonzalez told the team's flagship radio station, XX 1090 AM, that he may not be able to swing a bat for "four or five months," as he is taking a cautious route on his shoulder rehabilitation. Gonzalez had surgery on his right shoulder last month in order to clean up the labrum. The four-to-five month window falls during spring training, with the conservative end of the estimate landing after opening day. Agent John Boggs told MLB.com, "What he's saying is he's going to take his time and make sure [his shoulder is] ready. The timeline has always been four months. He'll be ready ... but he's not going to burst out of the gates if he's not."
(Updated 11/10/2010)

http://www.cbssports...adrian-gonzalez

[cahlton]

redsoxstats

I hate this Adrian Gonzalez trade rumor. Giving the farm for a player that needs a new blockbuster contract is bad business.

Hard to argue with that.

[emgoodman]

What are the chances that this is a planted story to influence Beltre? Reports come out that Adrian is in discussions with the A's. Then he says he prefers to stay with the Sox if the length of the contract is to his liking. Now we have rumors that the Sox will unload the farm for a guy who has all the motivation in the world to test the FA market in one year.

Hoyer doesn't have that much leverage IMO. I just can't see any team offering SD anything more than what AG is worth for one year. And then there are those pesky reports about his shoulder.

Color me skeptical.


http://www.cbssports...adrian-gonzalez

My thoughts exactly. Additionally it puts pressure on the DBacks if they truly are considering trading Upton. Seems like the Sox could have made this same trade (if truly involves 3-4 top prospects) last year unless Hoyer really believed they had a chance to resign Adrian Gonzalez.. Although I wouldn't cry too much if we ended up with Adrian Gonzalez and Werth/Crawford for Christmas.

Edited by emgoodman, 03 December 2010 - 07:12 PM.

[Red Averages]

Take it for what its worth:

Have a source that indicates Adrian Gonzalez is in town for a physical. This thing may have some legs...

[snowmanny]

It may not be so much an effort to influence Beltre as it a choice the Red Sox feel they have to make now: sign Beltre for ~ 5/65 or trade for Gonzalez and extend him. I realize there is some thought that they might sign Beltre/OF this year plus Gonzalez next year, but we don't know if a Beltre signing precludes Gonzalez just this year or next year as well.

Gonzalez may be their preferred option, and they may be making one final push on that now before re-considering their offer to Beltre.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Hard to argue with that.

Why is that? If the Sox are going to give up the farm for a player, it should be for a legitimate superstar smack dab in the prime of his career. The Sox have plenty of money; if the Sox want to compete every year for the title, I can't think of a better way to use the farm system than to acquire guys like Gonzalez. They can't sign these guys as free agents if the Yankees are involved; they'll never win a bidding war with NY. So making trades is the logical step to take.

[BosRedSox5]

Take it for what its worth:

Have a source that indicates Adrian Gonzalez is in town for a physical. This thing may have some legs...

If that was true it'd be a done deal. I'm still pretty skeptical.

[David Laurila]

Kelly, Rizzo, Iglesias, and Kalish?

I don't believe for a second that Theo deals all four of those guys for Gonzalez. As a matter of fact, I'll go as far as to say no way in hell.

[E5 Yaz]

If that was true it'd be a done deal. I'm still pretty skeptical.

Nah, the Padres could just have given the OK to have him examined. Doesn't mean a deal would be in place

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I don't believe for a second that Theo deals all four of those guys for Gonzalez. As a matter of fact, I'll go as far as to say no way in hell.

I can see two of them along with a few prospects just below their level, though. That's probably why there's a mention of the Sox trying to figure out a way to not impact the major league roster, actually. If they're only offering two top prospects, the Padres likely want a young major leaguer back like Ellsbury, Lowrie or Bard.

[RedOctober3829]

If that was true it'd be a done deal. I'm still pretty skeptical.

He's not flying across the country if something is at least close. They could just send his MRIs to Boston if it was preliminary. Not saying that RA is right, but if he's in town it's a very good sign.

Edited by RedOctober3829, 03 December 2010 - 07:36 PM.

[OCD SS]

Kelly, Rizzo, Iglesias, and Kalish? You're going to have to go high on prospects if there are no major-leaguers involved. Maybe 3 or 4 instead of 5 prospects due to his uncertainty with his injured shoulder.

They better send his MRIs to James Andrews to make sure his shoulder is OK.

I think that is way too much for 1 year of Gonzalez.

Gonzalez's shoulder injury really put Jed in a bind; if he waits until mid-season to deal him he's can probably only expect a Teixeira-2 type return (Casey Kotchman and Steve Marek) or potentially and could have to deal him in the middle of a pennant race (which wouldn't fly at all), but it will be harder to deal him now since he may not be ready to even start the season. Perhaps Theo is able to offer him a bit more now to pry him away, but I still would highly doubt Kelly or Iglesias will go for a player who may not be healthy enough to start the season and only provides one year of control.

Another interesting little wrinkle is that with a new CBA its possible that Padres might not get any draft compensation for him, and they have no way of knowing that right now. If that hits MLB sometime during the season, his value may go down further as teams acquiring him for a stretch run wouldn't get the picks if leaves via free agency that winter. It would be 2 months of play and thanks a lot.

My guess would be a combination of Lars/Rizzo, Reddick, Lavarnway, Dubront, and Tejeda.

[jon abbey]

They can't sign these guys as free agents if the Yankees are involved; they'll never win a bidding war with NY. So making trades is the logical step to take.

True in general, but NY already has Teixeira and presumably wouldn't be in the bidding for Gonzalez (or Pujols, or Fielder) if they got to free agency.

[E5 Yaz]

True in general, but NY already has Teixeira and presumably wouldn't be in the bidding for Gonzalez (or Pujols, or Fielder) if they got to free agency.

i disagree

Edited by E5 Yaz, 03 December 2010 - 07:57 PM.

[cahlton]

Why is that? If the Sox are going to give up the farm for a player, it should be for a legitimate superstar smack dab in the prime of his career. The Sox have plenty of money; if the Sox want to compete every year for the title, I can't think of a better way to use the farm system than to acquire guys like Gonzalez. They can't sign these guys as free agents if the Yankees are involved; they'll never win a bidding war with NY. So making trades is the logical step to take.

Making trades is the logical step to take, I agree. What I don't agree with is paying twice for the same player—first with premium talent, then with premium dollars.
Hoping that the quality of the talent reflects these circumstances.

[The Boomer]

I don't believe for a second that Theo deals all four of those guys for Gonzalez. As a matter of fact, I'll go as far as to say no way in hell.

Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez might still be Red Sox if Theo hadn't taken his short leave of absence a few winters ago. That trade worked out because Beckett performed as hoped for and Lowell made his comeback. The time to have acquired A Gonz would have been when the Padres did after the Rangers lost patience with him as their prospect.

For every A Gonz, Konerko, H Ram or Papi who a team acquires at just the right time, there are several Edwin Encarnacions, Andy Martes and Adam LaRoches who don't work out. Trading prospects for max contract potential free agents with no guarantee to extend is bad business. I don't see Theo sacrificing the organization's best prospects unless a cost controlled or reasonably signed young major leaguer like Justin Upton can be acquired. If you trade prospects for prospects, you need to have total faith in your scouting.

[Seels]

True in general, but NY already has Teixeira and presumably wouldn't be in the bidding for Gonzalez (or Pujols, or Fielder) if they got to free agency.

Who are you kidding

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Making trades is the logical step to take, I agree. What I don't agree with is paying twice for the same player—first with premium talent, then with premium dollars.
Hoping that the quality of the talent reflects these circumstances.

You're paying in talent in order to have the exclusive opportunity to pay premium bucks. One necessarily follows the other. Also keep in mind that there's substantial difference between a 26 year old superstar and a 31 year old superstar (free agency generally doesn't hit until 31 or so). The 5 years of prime production makes it well worth giving up both prospects and money to acquire it.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez might still be Red Sox if Theo hadn't taken his short leave of absence a few winters ago. That trade worked out because Beckett performed as hoped for and Lowell made his comeback. The time to have acquired A Gonz would have been when the Padres did after the Rangers lost patience with him as their prospect.

For every A Gonz, Konerko, H Ram or Papi who a team acquires at just the right time, there are several Edwin Encarnacions, Andy Martes and Adam LaRoches who don't work out. Trading prospects for max contract potential free agents with no guarantee to extend is bad business. I don't see Theo sacrificing the organization's best prospects unless a cost controlled or reasonably signed young major leaguer like Justin Upton can be acquired. If you trade prospects for prospects, you need to have total faith in your scouting.

I think such a trade wouldn't be made unless the Sox could sign Gonzalez to an extension. I would argue the contrary: for a team that wants to compete every year but can't spend like the Yankees, trading prospects for max potential free agents and then extending those free agents is excellent business.

[bosockboy]

If true, it would seem to indicate that the Sox would rather part with premium minor league talent and cough up 150 million to Gonzalez, than simply give Beltre 80 million or so. I think that shows how much they would value Gonzalez over Beltre.

[Seels]

If true, it would seem to indicate that the Sox would rather part with premium minor league talent and cough up 150 million to Gonzalez, than simply give Beltre 80 million or so. I think that shows how much they would value Gonzalez over Beltre.

I agree, and I think it's a much safer option than Beltre. Beltre potentially could match Gonzalez's value (with the subtracted value of Youk at 3B) but I think going with Adrian Gonzalez is a much, much safer choice. I don't think anyone wants to see what a late 30's Beltre is going to be like on the bases or at the plate. If Beltre was a few years younger than this is completely different, but all the same I'd rather give up a couple prospects and get the more sure bet.

[OCD SS]

You're paying in talent in order to have the exclusive opportunity to pay premium bucks. One necessarily follows the other. Also keep in mind that there's substantial difference between a 26 year old superstar and a 31 year old superstar (free agency generally doesn't hit until 31 or so). The 5 years of prime production makes it well worth giving up both prospects and money to acquire it.

We are talking about Adrian Gonzalez and not Justin Upton, right?

Adrian Gonzalez will be playing his age 29 season next year. I suspect Boston is one of the few teams he would be willing to sign an extension with since they can be expected to be among the high bidders if he hits FA anyway, but because of that the rights to negotiate for the right to give him a raise in his age 29 season is not really that important. I think the difference between signing him for his age 29-36 season and age 30-37 seasons is not really that great anyway, so the cost in prospects will be for the difference between him and (say) Derek Lee.

Edited by OCD SS, 03 December 2010 - 08:15 PM.

[The Boomer]

I think such a trade wouldn't be made unless the Sox could sign Gonzalez to an extension. I would argue the contrary: for a team that wants to compete every year but can't spend like the Yankees, trading prospects for max potential free agents and then extending those free agents is excellent business.

You might be right but a more sensible proposal might be to sacrifice some of those prospects for Justin Upton plus Mark Reynolds (who the Diamondbacks want to unload in a salary dump) to replace Beltre at 3B if he signs elsewhere. Reynolds will turn 28 in next season's stretch drive. His UZR won't compare to Beltre but he would solve the need for a power hitting righty corner infielder. Reynolds is flawed defensively and strikes out at an alarming rate but, with his power, would be a more than adequate replacement at the hot corner. Gordon and Greinke might be a comparable kind of trade. I would prefer (and expect that Theo does also) holding onto their prospects (you never really have a surplus) unless it's a clearly good move for the team both in terms of talent and business.

[someoneanywhere]

I don't believe for a second that Theo deals all four of those guys for Gonzalez. As a matter of fact, I'll go as far as to say no way in hell.

Second. Theo will give up some premier talent, but not that much. I think, as well, that if it is MiLB traffic only, some of it will come from A/A+ level.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I don't believe for a second that Theo deals all four of those guys for Gonzalez. As a matter of fact, I'll go as far as to say no way in hell.

Correct - It could be something like:

• Kelly + Rizzo + Navarro + Weiland
• Rizzo + Iglesias + Doubront + Wilson
• Kelly + Iglesias + Pimentel + Reddick
• Rizzo + Doubront + Fuentes + Navarro
• Iglesias + Doubront + Fuentes + Pimentel (the Omar Minaya special!)

or some similar combo of four players, including 3 top-ten guys. I just won't be those particular four.

In fact, I would be surprised if Theo doesn't move heaven and earth to exclude Kalish from the deal. He's too valuable a RF replacement of Drew after 2012, unless we're talking a trade return of Rasmus or Upton. And there are more than enough other good prospects available that doing so shouldn't be a dealbreaker.

[OCD SS]

Second. Theo will give up some premier talent, but not that much. I think, as well, that if it is MiLB traffic only, some of it will come from A/A+ level.

I'd expect this to be a quantity over quality trade, with the Sox dealing a number of high-upside "tools" players who probably would never actually play in Boston (outside of maybe a pitcher like Dubront).

Edit to be clear: Kalish, Kelly, and Iglesias should not be in the deal.

Edited by OCD SS, 03 December 2010 - 08:30 PM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I'd expect this to be a quantity over quality trade, with the Sox dealing a number of high-upside "tools" players who probably would never actually play in Boston (outside of maybe a pitcher like Dubront).

Yeah, that's why I think this will be a 4-for-1 rather than the usual 3 prospect trade. From a certain perspective, player development is a numbers game.

[MHead81]

You might be right but a more sensible proposal might be to sacrifice some of those prospects for Justin Upton plus Mark Reynolds (who the Diamondbacks want to unload in a salary dump) to replace Beltre at 3B if he signs elsewhere. Reynolds will turn 28 in next season's stretch drive. His UZR won't compare to Beltre but he would solve the need for a power hitting righty corner infielder. Reynolds is flawed defensively and strikes out at an alarming rate but, with his power, would be a more than adequate replacement at the hot corner. Gordon and Greinke might be a comparable kind of trade. I would prefer (and expect that Theo does also) holding onto their prospects (you never really have a surplus) unless it's a clearly good move for the team both in terms of talent and business.

I never understood this logic. If we're going to have a bad defensive 3B, why wouldn't we just move Youkilis there, who's still going to be better defensively than Reynolds while being far superior at the plate, and then acquire a good 1B? I'm not saying that Youkilis at 3B should or shouldn't be option #1, but I am saying is that choosing Reynolds at 3B over Youkilis should be near the bottom of the list.

[Crazy Puppy]

Padres beat writer tweets:

Source confirmed #Padres and #Red Sox have reignited talks about Adrian Gonzalez. Deemed the discussion as "serious" at this point.

[cahlton]

You're paying in talent in order to have the exclusive opportunity to pay premium bucks. One necessarily follows the other. Also keep in mind that there's substantial difference between a 26 year old superstar and a 31 year old superstar (free agency generally doesn't hit until 31 or so). The 5 years of prime production makes it well worth giving up both prospects and money to acquire it.

Well, yes. But given these conditions it doesn't necessarily follow that the talent should be three (or even two) stud prospects. This isn't a cost-controlled Justin Upton the Red Sox are trading for.

This offseason is San Diego's best chance to get a desirable deal for Gonzalez; he's worth more now (the complications of his injury notwithstanding) than he will be in July. Unless another team is trying to trade for Gonzalez, Hoyer doesn't have a ton of leverage. It may be that it's the Padres who are leaking the details of this negotiation in hopes of drawing in another bidder.

This is why emptying the farm for Gonzalez strikes me as a bad idea.

[Plympton91]

I don't believe for a second that Theo deals all four of those guys for Gonzalez. As a matter of fact, I'll go as far as to say no way in hell.

In 1996, would you have traded Brian Rose, Dernell Stenson, Donnie Sadler, and Michael Coleman for Jeff Bagwell? Obviously. So, let's upgrade a little: What if I said Carl Pavano, Dernell Stenson, Donnie Sadler, and Trot Nixon? You'd still do it.

You obviously give them the choice of Rizzo or Anderson, since neither of them has a role in Boston with Gonzalez and Youkilis signed long term. I'd include Kelly, because there's no room in the rotation until one spot opens in 2013, by which time I would expect Renaudo to have passed Kelly anyway. Kalish still seems like JD Drew's average season is his upside, and that's production the Red Sox can replace at will.

If they're going to sign Werth, and they feel Kalish is a CFer (he didn't show me that he could play there, do the advanced defensive metrics contradict my eyes?), then they could go Ellsbury and Rizzo, one of Kelly or Iglesias, and for a fourth if they take Kelly, they can also choose Navarro/Tejada, or if they take Iglesias, they can choose (Portland SP from ND slipping my mind)/Pimental.

[MHead81]

For what it's worth, Kenny Williams was probably the wild card GM who would've offered a huge package for Gonzalez (although many wondered whether he actually had enough to get a deal done). Signing Adam Dunn and re-signing Konerko (as rumored) essentially takes them out of the mix.

[Clears Cleaver]

Seems that Kelly and rizzo are likely to be in any potential deal. I hope Lars is in a deal. I really would not trade Kalish or Iglesias

I really don't understand the need to trade three top-10 prospects when you could simply sign Lee and then go after Gonzo or Price or Albert in fa next year. I understand the lack of 40-man flexibility that they face in 2011 but that is still a bad use of capital. I'd rather use those players to get an elite pitcher or OFer instead of a corner IF who is a FA after this season.

Sign Crawford, DLee and trade for Upton using base of gonzo package +. then go get Gonzo next year with $$.

Ellsbury (CF), Pedroia (2B), Crawford (LF), Youks (3B), Papi (DH), Upton (RF) Lee (1B), Lowrie (SS), Salty ©
Bench: Drew, Cameron, Tek, Scutaro, util

You'd have a ton of flexibility with the OF/DH positions and there is enough coming off the books in 2012 to pay for a Gonzo/Fielder/Pujols

[RedOctober3829]

Heard this: The Padres and Red Sox are making progress in Adrian Gonzalez talks. If completed, this would take Boston out of the Adrian Beltre talks. Also: One of the possible combos discussed, among many, has included Heath Bell going to Boston.

Olney

[drtooth]

Olney

That's an interesting wrinkle, either that or Olney throwing stuff against the wall to see what sticks. Certainly makes it obvious (if true) that the Sox are trying unload Papelbon, given the rumors of the pursuit of Rivera.

[86spike]

OK

We've got multiple writers hearing about this. Something's going on.

[AZBlue]

I expect that I am in the minority, but I think trading Rizzo and Kelly for Adrian Gonzalez would be a mistake. Giving up a likely No. 1 or 2 pitcher who is cost controlled and a first baseman who could be very comparable to Gonzalez within two years may turn out to be a long-regretted misjudgment. I understand that there is no place for Rizzo if the Sox acquire Gonzalez, but, frankly, I would rather go with the kids.

[86spike]

I expect that I am in the minority, but I think trading Rizzo and Kelly for Adrian Gonzalez would be a mistake. Giving up a likely No. 1 or 2 pitcher who is cost controlled and a first baseman who could be very comparable to Gonzalez within two years may turn out to be a long-regretted misjudgment. I understand that there is no place for Rizzo if the Sox acquire Gonzalez, but, frankly, I would rather go with the kids.

I wouldn't call Kelly a likely no. 1 or 2 just yet. Possible, yes. Likely? Not yet. TINSTAAPP

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

A few things.

First, I have seen several people say they don't like this deal when its really unclear what the cost is to acquire Gonzalez. That said, while the Sox front office has had its share of black-eyes, their deals have at least, on some level, always been defensible. Until they make a huge overpay for someone in terms of prospects, its probably wise to give them the benefit of the doubt. Furthermore, you have to believe the Sox aren't going to give up that much value unless they are reasonably confident they can extend Gonzalez.

That said, assuming Gonzalez will be healthy, the deal increases their chances of signing him and the talent exchange is fair, you do this deal because it instantly makes the Sox a much better team in 2011. Make no mistake about it. He is a beast of a player, and would become another relatively young mainstay, with the power the Sox currently lack, for many years to come. When you look at his Petco Park numbers versus his road numbers you have to wonder how his statistics would look had he stayed in Texas or gone somewhere else in the AL.

In case its not clear, this deal would be great for the Boston Red Sox.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Seems that Kelly and rizzo are likely to be in any potential deal. I hope Lars is in a deal. I really would not trade Kalish or Iglesias

I really don't understand the need to trade three top-10 prospects when you could simply sign Lee and then go after Gonzo or Price or Albert in fa next year. I understand the lack of 40-man flexibility that they face in 2011 but that is still a bad use of capital. I'd rather use those players to get an elite pitcher or OFer instead of a corner IF who is a FA after this season.

Sign Crawford, DLee and trade for Upton using base of gonzo package +. then go get Gonzo next year with $.

Ellsbury (CF), Pedroia (2B), Crawford (LF), Youks (3B), Papi (DH), Upton (RF) Lee (1B), Lowrie (SS), Salty ©
Bench: Drew, Cameron, Tek, Scutaro, util

You'd have a ton of flexibility with the OF/DH positions and there is enough coming off the books in 2012 to pay for a Gonzo/Fielder/Pujols

The assumptions you're making, though, seem to be that (1) Lee can be signed to a 1-year deal, (2) the base of the package is the same for both Upton and Gonzalez, and (3) Gonzalez won't be traded somewhere else if not to Boston and no serious rival bidder will get in the way of the Sox carrying Gonzalez over the threshold of Fenway after 2012.

I have no idea about the first or the last, but the middle part is definitely not true. Gonzalez can likely be had for a pile of AA prospects. Based on what Towers said, though, the price for Upton will be an overpay of cost-controlled MLB players (read: Bard + Ellsbury at the minimum).

Also, while it seems likely that NYY will not be a bidder for Gonzalez, Posada is up after next year, so assuming a Montero/Cervelli battery behind the dish, there will likely be an opening at DH. Would it be a waste of talent for Gonzalez or Teixeira to DH when each one has GG-caliber defense? Of course, but then again ARod has played the last seven years at 3B rather than SS. There is a benefit to avoiding FA, and thy name is Steinbrenner.

From my viewpoint, I'm hopeful that there's enough smoke here that a fire will be lit at the GM's meetings next week. A Gonzalez/Bell combo could certainly be worth including Bard with less top prospects, IMO. But the S.S.Paps ship sailed when Rivera re-upped with the MFY. He won't be headed off to SDP.

[MartyBarrettMVP]

According to Rosenthal, Sox not the only ones in on Gonzalez: https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal

[Wingack]

I don't see how Bell could be added into the deal without the Red Sox giving up any major league talent.

[OCD SS]

I don't see how Bell could be added into the deal without the Red Sox giving up any major league talent.

I wouldn't think so either, but it could be possible that Jed has a hard-on for particular Sox Prospect or two that the low control of Gonzalez won't get out of Theo (of course this assumes that I'm write in some of my other posts in this thread). That said I'd expect that if there is a deal, he's not in it and his name coming up was in the spirit of brain-storming.

[Clears Cleaver]

The assumptions you're making, though, seem to be that (1) Lee can be signed to a 1-year deal, (2) the base of the package is the same for both Upton and Gonzalez, and (3) Gonzalez won't be traded somewhere else if not to Boston and no serious rival bidder will get in the way of the Sox carrying Gonzalez over the threshold of Fenway after 2012.

I have no idea about the first or the last, but the middle part is definitely not true. Gonzalez can likely be had for a pile of AA prospects. Based on what Towers said, though, the price for Upton will be an overpay of cost-controlled MLB players (read: Bard + Ellsbury at the minimum).

I implied that the package for Upton would be the base offer for Gonzo+...of course Upton is going to cost more. and I highly doubt DLee is going to require more than one year, especially if you can convince him that a year in Fenway in that lineup can do wonders for a guy (see A Beltre). But if takes two years, so be it, he can be Papi DH insurance in 2012 or a $5M throwaway. That is still better than giving up all that talent