224 replies to this topic

[jon abbey]

Still surprised that some people are taking this with such ease. I guess if you think Bonderman, Francis or Doucherererer is viable then you can afford to be so lax about things.

I think I'd still rather they roll the dice and give kids some tryouts. If they just plug gaps temporarily with guys like you listed, they're almost certainly going to have the same issue in 2012.

[glennhoffmania]

More to the point, I think it will be a month or two into the season before we know how good the Rays, Tigers, Twins, and White Sox are. It may be that the Yankees can do minimal tweakage and coast into the wild card because things just aren't working out for other teams. That's certainly a better alternative for them than to spend a ton of prospects on who knows who.

This kind of thinking has been mentioned a lot and it makes me nervous. It implies that Boston has already locked down the division, unless people are thinking that TB, Toronto or Baltimore have a shot. I don't believe in jinxes but I think it's a little early to be talking about NY coasting into the WC spot.

[terrynever]

More to the point, I think it will be a month or two into the season before we know how good the Rays, Tigers, Twins, and White Sox are. It may be that the Yankees can do minimal tweakage and coast into the wild card because things just aren't working out for other teams. That's certainly a better alternative for them than to spend a ton of prospects on who knows who.

Yes, I suspect this is the mindset of Cashman and Girardi and the farm system people. Wait it out.

It's taking me awhile to get used to this wild card favorite role.

[Rudy Pemberton]

The Yankees obviously have some glaring holes in the rotation, but it's not as if the Sox don't have questions about Lackey, Dice-K, and Beckett. Granted, Sox are in much better position but it seems way premature to gloat or enjoy the Yankees demise. Although, I certainly await the day when I can do that.

[JMDurron]

Seems like you can group the team's pitchers into 4 groups, at the #1 starter, it's fairly close. Let's pretend the Yankees resign Pettitte & then get Millwood. Lester is better on a rate stat basis for sure but Sabathia will give you more innings so maybe that's a push (being generous to MFY fans here). Beckett & Pettitte seem fairly comparable. Buchholz is the best of the next group, but you probably have to expect his HR rate to normalize. Millwood, Burnett, and Dice-K go in the next group, although I'd argue that Millwood has no real ceiling compared to the others. Ultimately, this is all pretty great...if the Yankees lose Pettitte they have a huge hole at the #2 spot in the rotation. They can replace Vazquez; but they are unlikely to have a pitcher with the upside of Dice-K.


2010 xFIP

Lester 3.29
Sabathia 3.78

Beckett 4.01
Pettitte 4.05

Buchholz 4.20
Lackey 4.32
Hughes 4.33

Milwood 4.66
Burnett 4.66
Matsuzaka 4.73

I liked your idea here, but I am a big fan of keeping in mind the potential for year-to-year variability among pitchers, both in terms of not overly considering this past year's results, and thinking about potential future performance. Towards that end, I did a 3-2-1 weighted average of this group's xFIPs from 2010, 2009, and 2008. It breaks down into a similar 4-tiered setting this way.

Lester 3.37
Beckett 3.66
Sabathia 3.68

Pettitte 4.11
Lackey 4.11
Buchholz 4.18
Hughes 4.19

Burnett 4.35

Millwood 4.62
Matsuzaka 4.76

Millwood doesn't help as much here as I thought he would. Perhaps going with the prospects is preferable in this situation. Relative to their 3-year performances, I think it would be safe to assume some potential regression from Beckett, improvement from Hughes, and roughly status quo performances from Lester, Sabathia, Pettitte (maybe fewer IP due to prep time), Lackey, Buchholz, Burnett, and Matsuzaka. As far as upside goes, it was only 2008 when Burnett managed an xFIP of 3.55, just like Hughes and his 3.56 in 2009. I think the Yankees need another Burnett-level performer, but that doesn't look to be Millwood. I still think that counting on both prospects to do that is ill-advised, but it may not be totally unreasonable if they have strong internal evaluations of those particular pitchers.

Edited by JMDurron, 13 January 2011 - 03:31 PM.

[TheYellowDart5]

Why panic in January? Cashman has plenty of time to secure a quality starter. The pennant race starts in April but it doesn't get serious until July.

The games in April still count, though. I get that it's a long season and there's plenty of time to upgrade and change, but I'm sure Cashman et al would prefer not getting out to a weak start.

Furthermore, there's no guarantee that a quality starter will be available come July, or that the Yankees will definitely grab him. They failed with Lee and didn't move on Haren.

[yep]

Why panic in January? Cashman has plenty of time to secure a quality starter. The pennant race starts in April but it doesn't get serious until July.

For some teams, it never gets serious at all.

[snowmanny]

I liked your idea here, but I am a big fan of keeping in mind the potential for year-to-year variability among pitchers, both in terms of not overly considering this past year's results, and thinking about potential future performance. Towards that end, I did a 3-2-1 weighted average of this group's xFIPs from 2010, 2009, and 2008. It breaks down into a similar 4-tiered setting this way.

Lester 3.37
Beckett 3.66
Sabathia 3.68

Pettitte 4.11
Lackey 4.11
Buchholz 4.18
Hughes 4.19

Burnett 4.35

Millwood 4.62
Matsuzaka 4.76

I think Lester might deserve his own tier.

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

Exactly what I was thinking when I made my panic comments. 3/5th of the current rotation will have issues consistently getting into the 6th inning and that will lead to an over worked bullpen which will affect CC's and Phil's starts as well.

Still surprised that some people are taking this with such ease. I guess if you think Bonderman, Francis or Doucherererer is viable then you can afford to be so lax about things.

"They'll be fine".

[Rudy Pemberton]

Thanks, JMD- like your way of looking at it much better.

[JMDurron]

I think Lester might deserve his own tier.

I try to grant the benefit of the doubt in this particular subforum. Plus, the IP difference does even things out a bit. 80% Lester and 20% Wakefield/Doubront would roughly be equivalent to 100% Sabathia even if they pitched exactly to those numbers anyway, I think.

[86spike]

The Yankees obviously have some glaring holes in the rotation, but it's not as if the Sox don't have questions about Lackey, Dice-K, and Beckett. Granted, Sox are in much better position but it seems way premature to gloat or enjoy the Yankees demise. Although, I certainly await the day when I can do that.

right... and that sentiment goes for nearly every MLB team out there.

Sure the MFYs aren't used to having question marks about 3/5 of their rotation this time of year... but lots of teams are. Outside of the Phillies and perhaps the Giants... who else isn't hoping the back end of their rotation comes through without total confidence that they will?

[billy ashley]

Not to get totally derailed- but it's not like Lackey sucked last year. He posted a xFIP of 4.32 over 215 innings in the American League East. He was essentially as good of a pitcher as Hughes last year, only in close to 40 more innings pitched.

In short, Lackey gets a lot of shit from people for his 2010 that he doesn't deserve.

[jon abbey]

Furthermore, there's no guarantee that a quality starter will be available come July, or that the Yankees will definitely grab him. They failed with Lee and didn't move on Haren.

Well, both of those things are true, but listing them like that is misleading. They didn't move on Haren because they were waiting on Lee and probably assumed Pettitte would be back, if the equivalent situation happened today (which it wouldn't, as that's a midseason situation, not an offseason one), I'm sure NY would be all over it.

Cashman's "Plan B" basically seems to be patience, and it's pretty silly to criticize that at this point. If NY ends up 85-77 with massive holes in the back of their rotation all year, that's a different story.

[TheYaz67]

Some small "update" I suppose from ESPN today (no real new news of course):

NEW YORK -- The New York Yankees' optimism about the return of Andy Pettitte has waned somewhat over the past week, a team source told ESPNNewYork.com on Monday.

"Last week I thought the chances were 60-40. Now I think they're 50-50 at best,'' said the source, a team executive who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Asked why he was less hopeful of a return by the 38-year-old Pettitte, the source said, "Another week has gone by with no contact as far as I know.''

ESPN

[rembrat]

You would think that Andy Pettitte would be lacing up his cleats once he heard the Yankees signed Rafael Soriano to a 3/35. I mean, 11MM per for a set up man? That's some some real commitment to winning in 2011.

[crow216]

In case anyone was wondering. The Yankees have 10 offdays between April-June. None of the months really giving a true break to a rotation spot, so the 4th and 5th spots may be spelled once or twice but more than likely will still get a high amount of starts each. (Red Sox have 9 off days)

Edited by crow216, 18 January 2011 - 09:48 AM.

[TomRicardo]

Best way to keep Sabathia from opting out is to work like a dog and get him injured. GO YANKS!!!!

[crow216]

You would think that Andy Pettitte would be lacing up his cleats once he heard the Yankees signed Rafael Soriano to a 3/35. I mean, 11MM per for a set up man? That's some some real commitment to winning in 2011.

I think Pettitte likely wouldn't budge if the Yankees said fine Andy, here's 16m instead of 13, please come! 20m is a different story but we all know he's going to get something like 18m prorated in July anyway, which is why I don't understand how everyone is up in arms about this. We had half a season without Andy last year, a worse bullpen, and underperforming Arod and Teix....The Yankees will be competitive if healthy, we all need to relax lol

[terrynever]

I think Pettitte likely wouldn't budge if the Yankees said fine Andy, here's 16m instead of 13, please come! 20m is a different story but we all know he's going to get something like 18m prorated in July anyway, which is why I don't understand how everyone is up in arms about this. We had half a season without Andy last year, a worse bullpen, and underperforming Arod and Teix....The Yankees will be competitive if healthy, we all need to relax lol

I'm more concerned about whether Montero's bat can help the Yankees once they call him up. The Pettitte thing is just a diversion for the media to blow up every few days.

[crow216]

I'm more concerned about whether Montero's bat can help the Yankees once they call him up. The Pettitte thing is just a diversion for the media to blow up every few days.

I mean, I understand if you said curiosity but why concerned? Our lineup, as constructed, is pretty badass.

Gardner
Jeter
Cano
Arod
Teix
Swisher
Posada
Martin
Granderson

Not including Jones yet. We don't need help there. You can point to questions marks but lets be real, every lineup, including the Red Sox has major holes. The Yankees don't have major holes, just question marks.

Conversely, the EXACT same can be said about the Yankees/Red Sox rotations. They have no holes, just question marks.

Edited by crow216, 18 January 2011 - 11:48 AM.

[Shelterdog]

I mean, I understand if you said curiosity but why concerned? Our lineup, as constructed, is pretty badass.

Gardner
Jeter
Cano
Arod
Teix
Swisher
Posada
Martin
Granderson

Whether the lineup is badass or not depends a lot on how you think Gardner/Jeter are going to play; seven good bats is completely different from five.

[terrynever]

I mean, I understand if you said curiosity but why concerned? Our lineup, as constructed, is pretty badass.

Gardner
Jeter
Cano
Arod
Teix
Swisher
Posada
Martin
Granderson

Not including Jones yet. We don't need help there. You can point to questions marks but lets be real, every lineup, including the Red Sox has major holes. The Yankees don't have major holes, just question marks.

Conversely, the EXACT same can be said about the Yankees/Red Sox rotations. They have no holes, just question marks.

Well, maybe concern is not the right word. I am hopeful that Montero is going to become an impact hitter in the lineup by the end of 2012, a young power hitter who can hit 30 homers per season and share some of the heavy lifting with Cano, A-Rod and Teix.

[crow216]

Well, maybe concern is not the right word. I am hopeful that Montero is going to become an impact hitter in the lineup by the end of 2012, a young power hitter who can hit 30 homers per season and share some of the heavy lifting with Cano, A-Rod and Teix.

I can only hope. We have 50m locked up in 2 players for the next half dozen years sitting on our lineup, we could use a low cost player like that. (I'm expecting laughs lol)

[terrynever]

I can only hope. We have 50m locked up in 2 players for the next half dozen years sitting on our lineup, we could use a low cost player like that. (I'm expecting laughs lol)

Maybe we're asking too much of Montero. But I see him within two or three years as the hitter this team builds around.
Cano is now considered the star of this team's offense. He's 28 years old and due to start making big money. Montero probably ends up as the DH if they don't trade him. Romine becomes the low-cost catcher in 2012. Maybe Sanchez moves into the picture by 2013 or 2014.
If Sanchez and Montero turn into big-time hitters, that offsets the aging of A-Rod and Teixeira in three or four years.