224 replies to this topic

[terrynever]

And I thought *I* had too much free time.

Great song from the 1980s: I've got too much time on my hands, by The Styx, if memory serves.
January is definitely the deadest month for baseball talk, which is why the Pettitte thing seems so tedious.

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

To say that the Clemens trial won't be a factor in Pettitte's decision is ridiculous. Obviously testifying in a federal case against your (former?) best friend is going to be a stressful situation, but remember, part of the testimony will deal with Pettitte's own admission of using PEDs. It should be a circus and I'm sure it's something he's is dreading. It's going to bring up the whole "he cheated" issue again with Pettitte, something that many people and media no longer bring up. I highly doubt he wants to pitch on the road after being in court all day talking about his HGH use. I'm not saying it's the only factor, but I'd be shocked if it wasn't a big one. Of course, maybe instead of testifying, Andy can just tell the jury about winning a 1-0 game in the World Series 15 years ago.

[terrynever]

To say that the Clemens trial won't be a factor in Pettitte's decision is ridiculous. Obviously testifying in a federal case against your (former?) best friend is going to be a stressful situation, but remember, part of the testimony will deal with Pettitte's own admission of using PEDs. It should be a circus and I'm sure it's something he's is dreading. It's going to bring up the whole "he cheated" issue again with Pettitte, something that many people and media no longer bring up. I highly doubt he wants to pitch on the road after being in court all day talking about his HGH use. I'm not saying it's the only factor, but I'd be shocked if it wasn't a big one. Of course, maybe instead of testifying, Andy can just tell the jury about winning a 1-0 game in the World Series 15 years ago.

I happen to think it comes down to his family and the $16-18M the Yankees would offer Pettitte to pitch one final season. But that's just me. Is Pettitte dumb enough to turn down all that money just so he doesn't have to fight "two wars" during the summer of 2011?
A sports writer dreams up a story for early January about how Pettitte doesn't want to fight two wars, and you guys believe it when normally you take a dumb-ass sports writer's invention and tell everyone how stupid it is. What is the credible evidence that Pettitte would retire rather than testify?

Edited by terrynever, 07 January 2011 - 03:48 PM.

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

First off, this idea didn't just come up with a sportswriter. It's been stated on talk radio in Boston and by Gammons (who loves Pettitte) on NESN where he remarked that he thinks testifying is going to be an absolute nightmare for Andy and believes that it will effect him greatly. Now I'd be lying if I knew that Gammons was implying he meant it might effect his decision or his pitching. Nonetheless, I think we can all agree that Pettitte isn't like Kobe Bryant who can sit through a rape trial during the day and knock down a game winning jumper later that night (and that's a compliment to AP).

Fwiw, I think he'll probably come back. But I absolutely think the trial hanging over his head is something that will factor in his decision. How can it not? Yankee fanboys talk about how he's a deep-thinking man of God. And now the muck is going to brought up again how he cheated, lied about it, lied about it some more, got caught in a lie, then came clean, then ratted out his best friend to the Feds. And he's going to do this in the middle of his season, pitching for the most scrutinized, hated team in baseball in New York City. However, if he retired he could show up, testify for a couple of days then go back to obvlivion.

I do think the wife and money are huge factors and probably the most important. But I also believe being the key witness in what will be a sensationalized, public trial has to enter his decision process. Maybe we can just agree to disagree.

Edit - Spelling and Grammar

Edited by BannedbyNYYFans.com, 07 January 2011 - 04:12 PM.

[jon abbey]

I happen to think it comes down to his family and the $16-18M the Yankees would offer Pettitte to pitch one final season.

They're supposedly offering $12-13M, according to one of the beat writers on Twitter the other day (Heyman?).

I personally don't think it has anything really to do with his wife, I think she's signed off on whatever he decides, and it's all him and deciding whether he wants to go through it for another year or just sit home and chill, or at least that's the impression I've gotten from what I've read.

And of course testifying in the Clemens case mid-season is a factor, you'd be crazy to think it isn't.

[EvilEmpire]

They're supposedly offering $12-13M, according to one of the beat writers on Twitter the other day (Heyman?).

I personally don't think it has anything really to do with his wife, I think she's signed off on whatever he decides, and it's all him and deciding whether he wants to go through it for another year or just sit home and chill, or at least that's the impression I've gotten from what I've read.

And of course testifying in the Clemens case mid-season is a factor, you'd be crazy to think it isn't.

12-13? That sounds pretty lowball to me given the circumstances. While it is a small raise from last year, I could see Pettitte being irritated about that amount and taking his time to either drive the price up or say no. And I wouldn't blame him.

[terrynever]

First off, this idea didn't just come up with a sportswriter. It's been stated on talk radio in Boston and by Gammons (who loves Pettitte) on NESN where he remarked that he thinks testifying is going to be an absolute nightmare for Andy and believes that it will effect him greatly. Now I'd be lying if I knew that Gammons was implying he meant it might effect his decision or his pitching. Nonetheless, I think we can all agree that Pettitte isn't like Kobe Bryant who can sit through a rape trial during the day and knock down a game winning jumper later that night (and that's a compliment to AP).

Fwiw, I think he'll probably come back. But I absolutely think the trial hanging over his head is something that will factor in his decision. How can it not? Yankee fanboys talk about how he's a deep-thinking man of God. And now the muck is going to brought up again how he cheated, lied about it, lied about it some more, got caught in a lie, then came clean, then ratted out his best friend to the Feds. And he's going to do this in the middle of his season, pitching for the most scrutinized, hated team in baseball in New York City. However, if he retired he could show up, testify for a couple of days then go back to obvlivion.

I do think the wife and money are huge factors and probably the most important. But I also believe being the key witness in what will be a sensationalized, public trial has to enter his decision process. Maybe we can just agree to disagree.

Edit - Spelling and Grammar

This I can agree with, especially the edit for spelling and grammar. Lost art, that stuff.

[terrynever]

They're supposedly offering $12-13M, according to one of the beat writers on Twitter the other day (Heyman?).

I personally don't think it has anything really to do with his wife, I think she's signed off on whatever he decides, and it's all him and deciding whether he wants to go through it for another year or just sit home and chill, or at least that's the impression I've gotten from what I've read.

And of course testifying in the Clemens case mid-season is a factor, you'd be crazy to think it isn't.

The Clemens trial will happen for Andy whether he plays or not. But the way the wheels of justice turn, I don't think we can say for certain it's going to happen in mid-summer.

I think Andy should get exactly what they are paying AJ Burnett this season. $18M.

[JohntheBaptist]

No real news, but some words from the actual horse's mouth (heh):

http://www.nypost.co...4iH6uUuO27kAfAN

Here's a quote from the article:

"I don't want to be a story," he said. "I really don't want [the Yankees] to worry about me. I just want them to go, just go on."

I've always had a pet theory about Pettitte that he is dumber than a bag of hammers, and this quote reminded me of it. Is he serious about this? Andy, your team is waiting for your answer for a reason, dude. They can't "just go on."

I obviously don't really care either way and honestly, with the Clemens saga looming over him and the fact that on January 7th he's fat, tanned, on his front porch in TX and fresh back from a family vacation, no sign of any physical prep whatsoever--I'd almost rather he came back. But he can't be that stupid, can he? "Everyone is so emotional up there." Yeah dickface they don't have a rotation!

I think he's coming back. Otherwise none of this makes sense to me--I just think the "no" would be a much quicker, easier conclusion than all this nonsense. I agree the decision is a tough and long one in a vacuum. But does anyone else really believe he hasn't decided either way? How is it that he could leave the thinking on this concept until now? You can't start discussing/ deciding in like, September? I guess it's the thorough on-the-fenceness of that article that just boggles my mind. I don't get it. Do you want to play or not?

Edited by JohntheBaptist, 07 January 2011 - 06:18 PM.

[jon abbey]

12-13? That sounds pretty lowball to me given the circumstances. While it is a small raise from last year, I could see Pettitte being irritated about that amount and taking his time to either drive the price up or say no. And I wouldn't blame him.

Yeah, I agree with that. Maybe they don't expect him to be ready in time for the start of the season at this point?

[terrynever]

I've always had a pet theory about Pettitte that he is dumber than a bag of hammers, and this quote reminded me of it. Is he serious about this? Andy, your team is waiting for your answer for a reason, dude. They can't "just go on."

I've always had a theory that Pettitte felt slighted by the Yankees when he came back to work for them and had to fight for every dollar he earned while Cashman gave $18M annually to an inconsistent pitcher like AJ Burnett for five years after the 2008 season ended.

Pettitte is not stupid, he's just pissed at Cashman. He made the incentives contract work in his favor two years ago. Now I believe he is dumb like a fox, sitting on his front porch after having his agent make a serious contract pitch calling for as much money as Burnett makes. If Cashman agrees, then Pettitte will stop stalling and come back. If Cashman doesn't feel Pettitte is worth it, then Andy retires. Eventually.

Edited by terrynever, 07 January 2011 - 08:36 PM.

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

But does anyone else really believe he hasn't decided either way? How is it that he could leave the thinking on this concept until now? You can't start discussing/ deciding in like, September? I guess it's the thorough on-the-fenceness of that article that just boggles my mind. I don't get it. Do you want to play or not?

"Makes sense to me"...

[foulkehampshire]

I've always had a theory that Pettitte felt slighted by the Yankees when he came back to work for them and had to fight for every dollar he earned while Cashman gave $18M annually to an inconsistent pitcher like AJ Burnett for five years after the 2008 season ended.

Pettitte is the 21st richest player in baseball history @ 125+ million in earnings. He had the 5th highest salary in the AL in 2007, and while he slipped to 7th in 2008, he was hardly a pauper @ 16 million.

What a victim.

[jon abbey]

He was talking about the 2009 season, where he made a good chunk less (although he did end up hitting most of his incentives and making it to eight figures), but your general point still holds.

[SoxFanSince57]

Seems to me that two important factors for Pettitte are:

1) Does he think his addition would make the MFY a mortal lock to make it into the post season? I can understand one reason why he may be waiting. He wants to evaluate the strength of what the final roster is shaping up to be. (Does anyone think Cashman will do nothing further to improve the roster before opening day?) I do not see him coming back for a paycheck or to play for a team that isn't a lock for the Division or WC. IMO, he ain't coming back for a meal ticket or log 200 innings. He is only coming back if he thinks he can grab some post season glory.

2) I believe that he knows his reputation/character will be attacked in court and in the press. His own use of HGH will be in every story written about the trail. The higher profile he has during that trial the more the public will read about and talk about his PED use and everything else the lawyers can throw out to the tabloids to discredit him and his character. I am not terribly sure he wants to "deal with" all that while on the mound. Can you imagine what shit he would hear from Boston fans every time he toed the rubber in Fenway? Maybe dear Andy was a bigger USER than he has already acknowledged.

Edited by SoxFanSince57, 08 January 2011 - 10:22 AM.

[bankshot1]

To say that the Clemens trial won't be a factor in Pettitte's decision is ridiculous. Obviously testifying in a federal case against your (former?) best friend is going to be a stressful situation, but remember, part of the testimony will deal with Pettitte's own admission of using PEDs. It should be a circus and I'm sure it's something he's is dreading. It's going to bring up the whole "he cheated" issue again with Pettitte, something that many people and media no longer bring up. I highly doubt he wants to pitch on the road after being in court all day talking about his HGH use. I'm not saying it's the only factor, but I'd be shocked if it wasn't a big one. Of course, maybe instead of testifying, Andy can just tell the jury about winning a 1-0 game in the World Series 15 years ago.

This is the point. While Andy may have been perfectly forthcoming about his own PED use, perhaps he was not, and perhaps his former best friiend knows some darker secrets and truths about Andy's behavior, illegal and otherwise that could tarnish his reputation, and personal life, as he approachs retirement and HoF consideration, and his life post-retirement.

Clemens has little to lose by trashing his former colleague, best friend, and team-mate who testified against him. And if Andy can be shown to be less than honest in his testimony what future legal risks does he run?

To dismiss this area of concern out of hand, and its possibility of weighing heavily on Pettitte as a huge distraction, is beyond irrational.

Edited by bankshot1, 08 January 2011 - 10:23 AM.

[TheGazelle]

This is the point. While Andy may have been perfectly forthcoming about his own PED use, perhaps he was not, and perhaps his former best friiend knows some darker secrets and truths about Andy's behavior, illegal and otherwise that could tarnish his reputation, and personal life, as he approachs retirement and HoF consideration, and his life post-retirement.

Clemens has little to lose by trashing his former colleague, best friend, and team-mate who testified against him. And if Andy can be shown to be less than honest in his testimony what future legal risks does he run?

To dismiss this area of concern out of hand, and its possibility of weighing heavily on Pettitte as a huge distraction, is beyond irrational.

I don't know. Eviscerating the credibility of your best friend on a national stage may give most people pause. That beind said, it's clear that Clemens is, for a variety of reasons, decidely not "most people."

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

I don't know. Eviscerating the credibility of your best friend on a national stage may give most people pause. That beind said, it's clear that Clemens is, for a variety of reasons, decidely not "most people."

We're talking about the guy who threw his own wife under the bus during those hearings.

[bankshot1]

I don't know. Eviscerating the credibility of your best friend on a national stage may give most people pause. That beind said, it's clear that Clemens is, for a variety of reasons, decidely not "most people."

I agree Clemens is not most people, however, if eviscerating Pettitte and his credibility can save Clemen's ass from jail, do you really think he would not gut and hang Andy out to dry, in a NY minute?

[Rasputin]

I agree Clemens is not most people, however, if eviscerating Pettitte and his credibility can save Clemen's ass from jail, do you really think he would not gut and hang Andy out to dry, in a NY minute?

Uh that's what they mean when they say he is not "most people."

[TheYellowDart5]

PARADISE VALLEY, Ariz. - Andy Pettitte won't be playing baseball at the start of the 2011 season, according to Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, who says the left-handed veteran told him "don't count on me."

"I don't think he's determined if he's officially finished or not, but he's chosen at this stage at least not to start in 2011," Cashman said Wednesday at the baseball owners' quarterly meetings in Arizona. "If that ever changes he'll call us. We're not going to hound him or bother him."

Cashman, who failed to add a big-name free agent to the Yankees' starting rotation this offseason, said that a desire to be with family had led Pettitte to decide not to return to the mound this April.

"Andy's been very communicative on these issues and right now he's not in play, and if he does decide to play he'll play for us," Cashman said. "He's a Yankee from start to finish."

http://www.nydailyne...urce=feedburner

[SemperFidelisSox]

Pettitte will start his throwing program in April, make a few starts for Scranton in May, and make his first start of the year at home on June 8 vs Boston.

[LMontro]

http://www.nydailyne...urce=feedburner

Oh my goodness gracious!

[Foulkey Reese]

TylerKepner Tyler Kepner
Cashman said he just used a poor choice of words when he told DN that Pettitte has "chosen not to start." He meant "chosen not to pitch".

So that's that. Wtf is Cashman gonna do now?

[Sprowl]

So that's that. Wtf is Cashman gonna do now?

Probably wait for starters with bad contracts to come on the trade market when their teams figure out they're not going anywhere. That means at least six weeks of Mitrenovagawa.

[TheYellowDart5]

Scratch that.

Just got off the phone with Brian Cashman who said The Daily News story about Andy Pettitte’s decision is not accurate. ”It’s a misunderstanding,” Cashman said.

This was Cashman’s quote, as relayed by The Daily News: “I don’t think he’s determined if he’s officially finished or not, but he’s chosen at this stage at least not to start in 2011.”

Cashman said you could basically substitute the word “pitch” for the word “start.” What Cashman meant was, at this stage, Pettitte is choosing not to pitch in 2011, but the Yankees are — as they’ve been all winter — waiting for Pettitte to let them know something official. He’s leaning toward retirement, and he’ll let them know if that situation changes.

“Nothing new or different,” Cashman said. “Exactly what I’ve been saying for the past month or two months.”

http://yankees.lhblo...sunderstanding/

So nothing's changed, then?

[bosockboy]

Bet they sign Millwood for some innings.

[bankshot1]

AAA prospect Kei Igawa to sign 4 year/52MM extension?

[SeanBerry]

They could go out and get Millwood and Jeff Francis I guess? And that's a best case scenario from the free agent market anyway.

Sabathia
Hughes
Burnett
Millwood
Francis

I have a hard time seeing that staff (with Nova as depth) lead a 90 win team.

Time to seriously think about dealing Montero? And if so...for what? Garza and Grienke are gone...

[SumnerH]

So that's that. Wtf is Cashman gonna do now?

They'll string together some Duscherer/etc kind of pickups along with the kids and stumble along, and see which of those pan out. By the end of May/beginning of June, they'll know if they have another Chacon/Small type find or a reclamation or two, and/or whether the prospects are panning out. By then, Pettitte will be getting antsy to return. Their offense will have kept them at worst in striking distance of the playoffs and potentially right in the division battle. Pettitte will sign for the remainder of the season for a final playoff push, making it good odds that they're at least in control of the wild card by the ASB.

That'll leave them plenty of time to make another move at the trade deadline for another starter if needed, and from there on out it's game on.

Don't get me wrong, I think the Sox clearly have a better shot at outlasting them this year--but with the finances of the NYY and their offense there's no way that I call this a WTF situation just yet.

Honestly, Sabathia/Hughes/Pettitte/Burnett isn't a terrible top 4; they have a great offense. And Burnett has at least "reasonable starter" upside. Piecemealing together the #5 (for the season) and #4 (for a couple of months until Andy comes back) doesn't sink the Yanks--and if a gamble like Duscherer works out or they make a trade-deadline move to bolster things, it's anyone's game. Just one of the prospects works out and they don't need Pettitte back to have a good shot at the playoffs.

Edited by SumnerH, 12 January 2011 - 10:08 PM.

[Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat]

I suppose that trading for Garza would indicate that the Cubs think they can win now. But I'm not convinced that it doesn't mean that they'd like the Zambrano era to end. I wouldn't be surprised to see him on the Yankees at some point this season.

[glennhoffmania]

"He's a Yankee from start to finish."

Well, not really, Brian.

[rembrat]

Yep, time to panic.

It's startling to see that Cashman really had no Plan B at all. "Patience" really meant, "Let's wait and see what Andy wants to do."

[jon abbey]

Funny to check in on this thread for the first time in a few days when I was coming here to post the opposite news. Again, I can't emphasize how lousy the reporting for the Daily News is, pretty much every single time.

Anyway, my two things to add are a tweet from Heyman a couple of hours ago:

"SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman
cashman backed off comment he didn't believe pettitte would "start'' (year). im hearing pettitte is working out. my guess: he pitches in '11"

And a casual aside from today's NY Post story:

"Andy Pettitte still has not informed the team whether he wants to pitch in 2011, though there is increased optimism around Yankee Stadium that he will return. But until he informs them of a decision, the Yankees keep scouring the market for starters."

http://www.nypost.co...50UfP8qwgZuPIKO

[Sampo Gida]

Yep, time to panic.

It's startling to see that Cashman really had no Plan B at all. "Patience" really meant, "Let's wait and see what Andy wants to do."

I just can't understand him not signing Brad Penny.

Seriously, Pettitte missed 2 months last year on the DL. It might actually work in his favor if Pettitte only wants to pitch the 2nd half. Not sure he can last an entire season at his age. Assuming his collection of 5th-9th starters keep the Yankees in the race for at least a WC spot, I imagine the Yankees would have enough money to trade with a team looking to make a a salary dump at the trading deadline if Pettitte chooses not to come back, or even if he does.

Edited by Sampo Gida, 13 January 2011 - 02:59 AM.

[Wingack]

Yep, time to panic.

It's startling to see that Cashman really had no Plan B at all. "Patience" really meant, "Let's wait and see what Andy wants to do."

You can panic. But it'll be fine.

[Dewy4PrezII]

They could go out and get Millwood and Jeff Francis I guess? And that's a best case scenario from the free agent market anyway.

Sabathia
Hughes
Burnett
Millwood
Francis

I have a hard time seeing that staff (with Nova as depth) lead a 90 win team.

in 2011 Brian Cashman = 1999 Dan Duquette

Welcome to a rotation of an ace followed by question marks and retreads

[Lose Remerswaal]

Really? None of you can read the obvious between the lines?

but he’s chosen at this stage at least not to start in 2011.

Pettitte to the pen, Mo to the rotation.

[phrenile]

Pettitte to the pen, Mo to the rotation.

Mariano Rivera, starting pitcher

W	L	W-L%	ERA	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	BF	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
3	3	.500	5.94	10	50.0	64	35	33	8	20	38	233	1.680	6.8	1.90

Better than Igawa. Make it happen, Brian.

[86spike]

Man there are a lot of people here sleeping on Phil Hughes. There were points not long ago when both Lester and Buchholz were seemingly struggling to live up to their potential. I don't think we should just assume Hughes has hit his ceiling.

[TheYellowDart5]

Man there are a lot of people here sleeping on Phil Hughes. There were points not long ago when both Lester and Buchholz were seemingly struggling to live up to their potential. I don't think we should just assume Hughes has hit his ceiling.

Is it sleeping on Phil Hughes to question whether his 2011 season will be more like his 2010 first half or his 2010 second half? Hughes is 24 years old and bound to be inconsistent. For all his talent, he had a lot of trouble last year keeping the ball in the park, especially at Yankee Stadium, and his walk rate ballooned in the second half while his strikeout rate fell. He was awesome in April and May but was decidedly average from that point forward. The Yankees probably need more than average out of Hughes if they don't get Pettitte back, and it's a reasonable debate as to whether he'll be able to meet those expectations.

[86spike]

Is it sleeping on Phil Hughes to question whether his 2011 season will be more like his 2010 first half or his 2010 second half? Hughes is 24 years old and bound to be inconsistent. For all his talent, he had a lot of trouble last year keeping the ball in the park, especially at Yankee Stadium, and his walk rate ballooned in the second half while his strikeout rate fell. He was awesome in April and May but was decidedly average from that point forward. The Yankees probably need more than average out of Hughes if they don't get Pettitte back, and it's a reasonable debate as to whether he'll be able to meet those expectations.

I agree with all of that.

But the comments like "time to panic" and "Cashman is screwed", IMO, are made with the assumption that Hughes will struggle. The kid has a great trajectory through the minors and has now had some good exposure to MLB competition under his belt. IMO, he's more likely to grow this year than he is to backslide. CC/Hughes could very well match up with Lester/Buchholz this year.

[donutogre]

I agree with all of that.

But the comments like "time to panic" and "Cashman is screwed", IMO, are made with the assumption that Hughes will struggle. The kid has a great trajectory through the minors and has now had some good exposure to MLB competition under his belt. IMO, he's more likely to grow this year than he is to backslide. CC/Hughes could very well match up with Lester/Buchholz this year.

I agree - I think Hughes will likely have an overall valuable season although he could likely be less consistent than Lester or Buchholz. I think after CC/Hughes the dropoff is more dramatic on the Yankees than the Sox. While Lackey/Dice-K/Beckett could all be mediocre to poor again next year, I tend to think that ONE of them should be able to outperform Burnett at the 3 spot. And then you're onto NY's kids vs. Boston's vets. Given the track records of Lacket/Beckett/Dice-K, I'd expect two of them to be better bets than NY's starters, as things are now anyway.

I realize there is a lot of hedging in there so I'll just say it - as built now, Boston's pitching will outperform NY's. If the Yankees make some moves, who knows?

[JMDurron]

Man there are a lot of people here sleeping on Phil Hughes. There were points not long ago when both Lester and Buchholz were seemingly struggling to live up to their potential. I don't think we should just assume Hughes has hit his ceiling.

Personally, I'm not sleeping on Phil Hughes, because I am a firm believer in Murphy's Law when it comes to the Yankees - what needs to go right for them, will go right for them, at least to the point of getting them to the postseason. A team with that much talent doesn't actually need all that much to go right for this to be true, no matter how much we would all (and believe me, I would...oh I would) love to see everything go wrong for them over 162 games.

That said, even as someone who sees Hughes as a potential #2 starter, or at the very least a #3 type guy in the AL East when we account for a reasonably high level of performance variance, there are plenty of reasons to worry about the back end of the Yankees rotation. I don't think they necessarily, absolutely have to upgrade the top end of their rotation, although that would obviously be the ideal for them. They do, however, have a serious problem if they want to try to go Sabathia-Hughes-Burnett-Prospect-Prospect, because that is not one, not two, but three significant opportunities for highly variable, if not poor performances. Turning just one of those prospect slots into a Millwood/Blanton type would give them a whole lot more coverage to account for poor performances or injuries. Even if one is optimistic on Hughes, we need look no further than the 2010 Red Sox to see how poor a rotation can look with 2 top tier guys with inadequate support behind them in the rotation. There's obviously no reason for panic, though.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Seems like you can group the team's pitchers into 4 groups, at the #1 starter, it's fairly close. Let's pretend the Yankees resign Pettitte & then get Millwood. Lester is better on a rate stat basis for sure but Sabathia will give you more innings so maybe that's a push (being generous to MFY fans here). Beckett & Pettitte seem fairly comparable. Buchholz is the best of the next group, but you probably have to expect his HR rate to normalize. Millwood, Burnett, and Dice-K go in the next group, although I'd argue that Millwood has no real ceiling compared to the others. Ultimately, this is all pretty great...if the Yankees lose Pettitte they have a huge hole at the #2 spot in the rotation. They can replace Vazquez; but they are unlikely to have a pitcher with the upside of Dice-K.


2010 xFIP

Lester 3.29
Sabathia 3.78

Beckett 4.01
Pettitte 4.05

Buchholz 4.20
Lackey 4.32
Hughes 4.33

Milwood 4.66
Burnett 4.66
Matsuzaka 4.73

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 13 January 2011 - 01:23 PM.

[TheYellowDart5]

I agree with all of that.

But the comments like "time to panic" and "Cashman is screwed", IMO, are made with the assumption that Hughes will struggle. The kid has a great trajectory through the minors and has now had some good exposure to MLB competition under his belt. IMO, he's more likely to grow this year than he is to backslide. CC/Hughes could very well match up with Lester/Buchholz this year.

I think most of the panic comments have more to do with the fact that three of every five starts for New York will feature A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre, not that Phil Hughes is suddenly the second-best pitcher in that rotation. I imagine for most Yankees fans, Hughes' performance is far less of a concern than those three.

[glennhoffmania]

I think most of the panic comments have more to do with the fact that three of every five starts for New York will feature A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre, not that Phil Hughes is suddenly the second-best pitcher in that rotation. I imagine for most Yankees fans, Hughes' performance is far less of a concern than those three.

This is my feeling as well. I think that Hughes will be fine. At a minimum he'll be a solid, above-average pitcher. It's the rest of the staff that's pretty ugly. But for all we know, Burnett will pitch like it's his contract year.

[rembrat]

Exactly what I was thinking when I made my panic comments. 3/5th of the current rotation will have issues consistently getting into the 6th inning and that will lead to an over worked bullpen which will affect CC's and Phil's starts as well.

Still surprised that some people are taking this with such ease. I guess if you think Bonderman, Francis or Doucherererer is viable then you can afford to be so lax about things.

[terrynever]

Why panic in January? Cashman has plenty of time to secure a quality starter. The pennant race starts in April but it doesn't get serious until July.

[Rasputin]

Why panic in January? Cashman has plenty of time to secure a quality starter. The pennant race starts in April but it doesn't get serious until July.

More to the point, I think it will be a month or two into the season before we know how good the Rays, Tigers, Twins, and White Sox are. It may be that the Yankees can do minimal tweakage and coast into the wild card because things just aren't working out for other teams. That's certainly a better alternative for them than to spend a ton of prospects on who knows who.