224 replies to this topic

[Adirondack jack]

Be careful what you wish for. I think that we Red Sox fans might be better off with Andy Pettitte hanging on until the bitter end, with that bitter end coming midseason and forcing the Yankees to scramble for a replacement on the fly. If Pettitte certainly retires in the offseason, then his rotation slot will certainly be filled, either internally or via trade, by a pitcher who will be more effective than a "falling off the cliff" Andy Pettitte. The Yankees have plenty of time to hunt for at least a middle-tier starting pitcher at a reasonably low trade cost right now, whereas a midseason trade for a clear upgrade might cost them more in prospects. I think that Pettitte's retirement would force the Yankees into making a deal now, because the alternative is, as you say, a rotation of Sabathia-Burnett-Hughes-Nova (or equivalent), and with the obvious Bubba Crosby 5th starter that the Yankees will be "comfortable with going into the season."

I agree with your general point of if Pettitte retires they most likely go out there and get someone better. If he retires*, they'd have to do something outside the organization to get above average innings for this very expensive club of theirs. And it seems pretty reasonable that they could stand pat so long as Pettitte returns. Although, I'd want to hedge that bet of inactivity because the rotation could still be upgraded fairly easily and painlessly considering their system and the Greinke deal. The trade options are limited but there still are some that would make sense.

I don't think Pettitte is part-cyborg, but as far as soon to be 39 year olds go, I think Pettitte is a good bet to not fall off a cliff next season. He isn't dependent on a dominant FB to be a good pitcher (just going by pitch value since 2007 his FB: -12.8, -4.9, -6.1, -1.4) his velocity has been steady for years now (fangraphs is showing a drop in his 2010 cutter velocity but without seeing him all that much I'm not confident in that # considering FG pitch recognition issues) and the guy just knows how to pitch and keep the ball of the center of the plate and away from the barrel of bats (since returning to the Bronx his LD% are below his career avg while his HR/9 hasn't really been an issue). Overall, I'm with you, I'd like Andy to just take one step closer to becoming more like Favre and come back next year, I'm just not expecting a significant drop-off from him though. On the surface his profile seems to me more like a gradual decliner.


* still have my doubts he actually retires since he does this every year, but yeah probably not to this degree.

[terrynever]

Pettitte will be back. If he wanted to retire, he would have admitted it publicly by now, especially during the Christmas season. He and his wife are in a standoff at the moment. Andy is pleading for one more year. She says you do this to the family every year. I expect a resolution by Jan. 5.

[Dewy4PrezII]

Pettitte will be back. If he wanted to retire, he would have admitted it publicly by now, especially during the Christmas season. He and his wife are in a standoff at the moment. Andy is pleading for one more year. She says you do this to the family every year. I expect a resolution by Jan. 5.

How long have you been hiding in Andy's bushes, and was baseball the only reason for your stalking or are you trying to catch a glimps of Pettitte's HGH enhanced physique as well?

[jon abbey]

Yeah, I'm curious what you're basing that post on also.

[Doctor G]

Pettitte will be back. If he wanted to retire, he would have admitted it publicly by now, especially during the Christmas season. He and his wife are in a standoff at the moment. Andy is pleading for one more year. She says you do this to the family every year. I expect a resolution by Jan. 5.

Is that you , Incarcerated Bob?

[Dehere]

If I were a betting man, I'd say that Pettitte is going to play it like Roger Clemens and try to make a late May/early June return for an outlandish pro-rated salary. Unless the Yankee rotation comes out smoking in April, his leverage increases by the week and he gets more time at home with the family. So it's a win-win for him to play it that way, and the fact that he doesn't have to start getting back into pitching shape right away is an added bonus.

I think this is where the Pettitte situation is headed too. It's the right move for Pettitte and I think it's the right move for the Yankees as well, as they would potentially have Pettitte going into September/October having pitched, say, 100 innings rather than 150+.

Broadly speaking, I think pro-rated seasons like this are going to become a trend as teams decide that half a season of, for example, 43-year old Mariano Rivera in 2013 is better than either paying for a full season or getting nothing at all.

[terrynever]

Yeah, I'm curious what you're basing that post on also.

I'm basing it on the fact that most married couples operate on the same dynamic, whether they are famous people, or just ordinary folks like us. The husband wants to play with his pals and the wife wants him to stay home and hang around with the family. Sound familiar to anyone?

I'm also basing it on the fact that the silence is deafening. Something is going on inside the Pettitte household. My guess is the wife is now listening as Andy and the agent say they can squeeze $16M guaranteed out of the Yankees.

I will admit that the shrubbery in Pettitte's front yard is very impressive. Getting through the front gate wasn't easy either.

Edited by terrynever, 29 December 2010 - 12:53 PM.

[yep]

Daily News, your source for the latest up-to-the-minute speculation and rumor:

http://www.nydailyne...l#ixzz19bqJqZXI

"Andy's a great Yankee and a great person and I know he'll give it thought and follow his heart and we'll respect his decision. But we're out there, all of us, hoping every day that he comes back," (Yankees president Randy) Levine added. "I think he knows we need him. I think he knows how much we respect him and what a great leader he is."

"If he's leaning one way, he's probably leaning towards retirement," Teixeira said. "I think that's what he's publicly said, and that's no secret right now. But in a month and a half, a lot can happen."

edited format and stupid mistake, with thanks to Jon Abbey

Edited by yep, 30 December 2010 - 10:56 AM.

[jon abbey]

Those quotes are actually from the Daily News, which as I said in the other thread, is entirely worthless for sports information. Both of those quotes are pretty old now, the Levine one a week or so and the Tex one a couple of days.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

This is becoming Favre-esque. Shit or get off the pot. At some point the team will have to move on and fill the slot if he can't make up his damn mind soon.

[Bunt Single]

I'm wondering whether he may have already told the Yankees he's not coming back, but he's keeping it quiet as a favor to the team, so that they don't lose more leverage as they scramble looking for a trade to shore up the rotation.

[jon abbey]

This is becoming Favre-esque. Shit or get off the pot. At some point the team will have to move on and fill the slot if he can't make up his damn mind soon.

He's told them to proceed as if he's not returning, and that's allegedly what they've been doing. The plan seems to be to fill either 1 or 2 spots internally (depending on Pettitte) while waiting for other options to become available at reasonable trade prices. Presumably they could get Blanton without giving up too much, as one example.

[rembrat]

I'm wondering whether he may have already told the Yankees he's not coming back, but he's keeping it quiet as a favor to the team, so that they don't lose more leverage as they scramble looking for a trade to shore up the rotation.

Cashman: /calls random GM
Cashman: Hey, random GM, as you know, we kinda have a hole in the middle of our rotation and are interested in player X from your team. Is he available? What would it take?
Random GM: Give us one of your catcher prospects and a Single A arm with upside.
Cashman: I'm sorry, we really don't need to make this trade, I don't know if you heard, but Andy "Lord Large Nose of 5 Rings" Pettitte may or may not come back with us. That, sir, is called leverage. Good day.

Yup. Totally feasible, bro.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

He's told them to proceed as if he's not returning, and that's allegedly what they've been doing. The plan seems to be to fill either 1 or 2 spots internally (depending on Pettitte) while waiting for other options to become available at reasonable trade prices. Presumably they could get Blanton without giving up too much, as one example.

Well that's good for him as he's not holding the club hostage. The year in and year out waffling gets tiresome after a while.

[TomRicardo]

This is becoming Favre-esque. Shit or get off the pot. At some point the team will have to move on and fill the slot if he can't make up his damn mind soon.

No way. Until ESPN devotes 5 minutes to him each and every hour I don't want to hear this comparison.

[No Guru No Method]

They don't need him now anyways. Casman is undertaking a through Colon check.

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

Casman is undertaking a through Colon check.

"He's finally healthy and in the best shape of his career."

Edit - Quoted wrong post initially

Edited by BannedbyNYYFans.com, 30 December 2010 - 08:35 PM.

[Sprowl]

For Barad-dur to collapse, is there some necessary parallel between Pettitte falling off a cliff and Gollum doing the same?

He takes all of his rings into the fire with him, and Bidet-dur takes 5 minutes of cheesy special effects to collapse.

I don't think Pettitte is part-cyborg, but as far as soon to be 39 year olds go, I think Pettitte is a good bet to not fall off a cliff next season. He isn't dependent on a dominant FB to be a good pitcher (just going by pitch value since 2007 his FB: -12.8, -4.9, -6.1, -1.4) his velocity has been steady for years now (fangraphs is showing a drop in his 2010 cutter velocity but without seeing him all that much I'm not confident in that # considering FG pitch recognition issues) and the guy just knows how to pitch and keep the ball of the center of the plate and away from the barrel of bats (since returning to the Bronx his LD% are below his career avg while his HR/9 hasn't really been an issue).

Yea, Pettitte looks to me like a control pitcher who deteriorates very gradually, not a power pitcher who loses it all of a sudden. His L-R splits are still deadly, making him an excellent fit for the park. I agree that Fangraphs data is of reduced utility because of the BIS slider-cutter confusion, but whether it's a slider or cutter, that pitch and his curveball are still top-shelf major-league pitches. Pettitte is a bit like Lackey in that he's got mediocre velocity but excellent breaking pitches, and he lives or dies by pinpoint control. Mostly he lives -- a very good living, in fact. I can imagine him holding out for a Clemens-style contract that gives him Texas-fambly-man privileges whenever he's not scheduled to start. I think he'll get it too, although he won't get quite as many megabucks.

[terrynever]

I get a little sentimental as New Year's Eve approaches and I start thinking about the rehab projects Epstein has foisted upon our local team in Pawtucket over the past few years. John Smoltz was my favorite. 42 years old and he looked great. But when he finally came to Pawtucket, he was throwing junk balls. Off-speed stuff and a 90-mph heater. The Boston media thought it was a great idea, bringing a future Hall of Famer in for one half of a season. Theo's a genius.

Guys like Colon have no chance of recapturing their old form. The Yanks are better off developing their own young pitchers. The trick is not to rush them because you want to win right away. Maybe having Smoltz for two months saved the Sox from rushing Buchholz.

With young pitchers, you have to buy time until they are ready for the big leagues. The Yanks' young prospects are at least one year away. I smell a bridge year for New York.

Thank you and Happy New Year to the best message board in the baseball world.

[yep]

...Yea, Pettitte looks to me like a control pitcher who deteriorates very gradually, not a power pitcher who loses it all of a sudden. His L-R splits are still deadly, making him an excellent fit for the park. I agree that Fangraphs data is of reduced utility because of the BIS slider-cutter confusion, but whether it's a slider or cutter, that pitch and his curveball are still top-shelf major-league pitches. Pettitte is a bit like Lackey in that he's got mediocre velocity but excellent breaking pitches, and he lives or dies by pinpoint control. Mostly he lives -- a very good living, in fact. I can imagine him holding out for a Clemens-style contract that gives him Texas-fambly-man privileges whenever he's not scheduled to start. I think he'll get it too, although he won't get quite as many megabucks.

+1 to this.

Pettitte will still be an effective pitcher next year if he chooses to play, and will be well above replacement-level. He will be a more-expensive version of Tim Wakefield until he actually retires.

That said, I'm skeptical that he'd take a Clemens-style half-year deal with this Yankees team unless something magical happens. He's already booked deep 8 figures past the point where he first contemplated retirement, and scooping up another few million to close out his career on a third-place team seems unnecessary for a guy who has already planned out his retirement multiple times.

In contrast to most of the more speculative posts in this thread, I'd guess that he was or has been half holding out hope that the Yankees would do something like sign Crawford and Lee, giving him a realistic shot at playing on another WS team, and that he's now half-hoping that the Yankees will surprise the world with something better than a run at Colon and Joe Blanton. I suspect it's almost the complete opposite of "leverage" concerns, and instead that he's not quite ready to give up on the hope that a winning team wants to sign him.

I know how stupid it is for fans to psycho-analyze ballplayers, and I don't know many mlb players, but I do know some formerly-successful businessmen and musicians, and past a certain point, the money is not irrelevant, but instead becomes a sort of marker of still-relevance. It's not easy to become the subject of Bruce Springsteen's "Glory Days", no matter how much money you have. Even if you get to drink for free, it's not easy to go from being the guy on TV to being the guy at the bar who tells everyone what it was like to be that guy. Not having to work for a living is great, but looking down the barrel of 50 years of signing autographs and coaching little league and occasionally putting on a suit to do color commentary is not as great as it sounds when your entire adult life so far has been lived in the bright lights. Andy Pettitte and his family will have every advantage for the rest of his life. He'll live in neighborhoods with bond-traders and politicians and movie stars and heiresses. And he'll be the guy that used to be great at throwing a baseball, which is a lot better than most of us will ever see, but no matter how nice the furniture or food is, it will never be quite the same as taking the mound in the world series.

My guess is that Pettitte is not much different from your typical Yankees fan right now-- that he's holding out hope that the Yankees will put together a competitive team for 2011.

[Adirondack jack]

My guess is that Pettitte is not much different from your typical Yankees fan right now-- that he's holding out hope that the Yankees will put together a competitive team for 2011.

That hardly seems to be an accurate or fair appraisal 43 some odd days before pitchers and catchers report.

If you're somehow thinking they will struggle to field a competitive team in 2011, you may want to look over their projected lineup again . I mean they did manage to score 859 runs last year (best in baseball by a good margin) despite their #3 and #4 hitters having down seasons. They also had the best run differential in the league in 2010 all while having their share of pitching issues. They coasted to the finish line yet still hit the 95 win mark. The Yanks certainly need some tweaking at the moment, and if I was a Yankee fan I'd be starting to get a little anxious, but a shrewd move or two in rounding out the roster and they're in the discussion as the best team in the majors and most certainly a projectable playoff team.

[ThePrideofShiner]

+1 to this.

Pettitte will still be an effective pitcher next year if he chooses to play, and will be well above replacement-level. He will be a more-expensive version of Tim Wakefield until he actually retires.

That said, I'm skeptical that he'd take a Clemens-style half-year deal with this Yankees team unless something magical happens. He's already booked deep 8 figures past the point where he first contemplated retirement, and scooping up another few million to close out his career on a third-place team seems unnecessary for a guy who has already planned out his retirement multiple times.

In contrast to most of the more speculative posts in this thread, I'd guess that he was or has been half holding out hope that the Yankees would do something like sign Crawford and Lee, giving him a realistic shot at playing on another WS team, and that he's now half-hoping that the Yankees will surprise the world with something better than a run at Colon and Joe Blanton. I suspect it's almost the complete opposite of "leverage" concerns, and instead that he's not quite ready to give up on the hope that a winning team wants to sign him.

I know how stupid it is for fans to psycho-analyze ballplayers, and I don't know many mlb players, but I do know some formerly-successful businessmen and musicians, and past a certain point, the money is not irrelevant, but instead becomes a sort of marker of still-relevance. It's not easy to become the subject of Bruce Springsteen's "Glory Days", no matter how much money you have. Even if you get to drink for free, it's not easy to go from being the guy on TV to being the guy at the bar who tells everyone what it was like to be that guy. Not having to work for a living is great, but looking down the barrel of 50 years of signing autographs and coaching little league and occasionally putting on a suit to do color commentary is not as great as it sounds when your entire adult life so far has been lived in the bright lights. Andy Pettitte and his family will have every advantage for the rest of his life. He'll live in neighborhoods with bond-traders and politicians and movie stars and heiresses. And he'll be the guy that used to be great at throwing a baseball, which is a lot better than most of us will ever see, but no matter how nice the furniture or food is, it will never be quite the same as taking the mound in the world series.

I think that is a pretty interesting take. If he doesn't want to retire yet, for the reasons you mentioned, though, won't he come back? Or does he want to retire after a pretty good season?

So much uncertainty.

[abty]

"And he'll be the guy that used to be great at throwing a baseball, which is a lot better than most of us will ever see, but no matter how nice the furniture or food is, it will never be quite the same as taking the mound in the world series."

Bingo. This is why Favre couldn't retire and will struggle in real life. These are highly competitive people who need sport to keep them going and, quite honestly, those who had a high level of success need coaxing from loved one to pry them from their way of life. Add on 10+ years pre draft of having their asses kissed and being on top of the world and you can see why it's so hard to leave. Guys like MJ and Arod and Jeter and Favre would play til they are 70 if they could. I really believe that.

[Crazy Puppy]

Bob Klapisch

#Yankees are prepared for Pettitte to tell them he's retiring, saying "everything" points that way. Decision should come this week.

[jon abbey]

Urgh.

[rembrat]

Don't worry, JA, think of all the added fun you'll have watching another kid in the rotation! Nova and Banuelos for 2011!

[SemperFidelisSox]

The team plans on retiring his nose in Monument Park.

[Rough Carrigan]

The team plans on retiring his nose in Monument Park.

If they can outbid Saratoga.

[Mike in CT]

Thoughts and prayers for Andy.

[Van Everyman]

Other than the announcement coming this week, exactly how is what Klapsich reported any different than what we've been told for the last two months?

[Foulkey Reese]

Yea Pettitte will be the hero when he decides to selflessly come back and play one more season for $20mill.

[Sportsbstn]

Come on Andy, America is itching to see "the decision 2". Make it happen. Instead of going to play in Miami, he can announce he is retiring to Miami.

[abty]

Makes you wonder, does Rivera have family? That dude signs on the dotted line without any hesitation. As much as I want him to be shot into outer space, he never whores them out for a last dollar unlike Secretariat face.

Edited by abty, 03 January 2011 - 09:07 PM.

[Lose Remerswaal]

I guess Gooden is the backup plan

[phrenile]

Yea Pettitte will be the hero when he decides to selflessly come back and play one more season for $20mill.

... on April 1, thereby sparing theme the luxury tax hit. Of course, he'll first need a stint in extended spring training before he shows up in the Bronx, but you can pencil him for the series against Baltimore in mid-April.

Nevermind.

Edited by phrenile, 04 January 2011 - 04:50 PM.

[Dewy4PrezII]

Makes you wonder, does Rivera have family?

He drowns them

[kieckeredinthehead]

... on April 1, thereby sparing theme the luxury tax hit. Of course, he'll first need a stint in extended spring training before he shows up in the Bronx, but you can pencil him for the series against Baltimore in mid-April.

(I'm at least half serious.)

His signing for the 2011 season does not spare them any luxury tax, no matter what day he signs.

[bankshot1]

http://www.northjers..._the_Yanks.html

Is the spectre of a mid-summer match-up against former team-mate, mentor, and drug-abuser, Roger Clemens deterring Andy's return to da Bronx?

One theory circulating at Yankee Stadium is that Pettitte is spooked by none other than Roger Clemens. Knowing he’s going to be the government’s star witness this summer might be enough to force Pettitte into hiding – especially if Clemens decides he’s going to take his former buddy down with him.

The trial, which is set to begin in July, figures to be a doozy. Unless The Rocket has a change of heart (or tactics), he’s going to swear he never used HGH or steroids. Those who’ve testified otherwise, including Brian McNamee and Pettitte, will be cast as witnesses with bad memories or are just flat-out lying.

Pettitte, however, gave Congress a sworn deposition, during which he said Clemens talked to him about using HGH in 1999, at The Rocket’s home in Houston.

Clemens says Pettitte “mis-remembered” that conversation. Therein lies his defense strategy: for Clemens to prevail, he’ll have to destroy Pettitte’s credibility. One person who’s known the left-hander for many years said: “You think that’s not weighing on Andy’s mind? Who knows what Clemens is going to dig up?”

Indeed, the dual burden of facing Clemens in court and then taking the mound in the Bronx might be too much for Pettitte. After 16 years, he might be thinking there’s no reason to fight two wars, not this late in his career, not at this point in his life.

[terrynever]

Yeah, a guy who matched up in Game 5 of the 1996 World Series against John Smoltz and won the game 1-0 is going to quit playing because he's afraid of Clemens's lawyers.

Pettitte will retire if his wife won't let him play again. It's a family decision, as he has been saying all along, for years actually.

[bankshot1]

Yeah, a guy who matched up in Game 5 of the 1996 World Series against John Smoltz and won the game 1-0 is going to quit playing because he's afraid of his wife?

[JMDurron]

At this point, I honestly can't conceive of anyone who would base a decision on their fear of Roger Clemens, his legal representation, and their ability to craft and execute an effective defense that makes anyone else look worse than Clemens. Facing Clemens in court would be the equivalent of trying to drown out the fan noise at a 2011 Royals-Rays game in Tampa Bay.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Yeah, a guy who matched up in Game 5 of the 1996 World Series against John Smoltz and won the game 1-0 is going to quit playing because he's afraid of Clemens's lawyers.

Pettitte will retire if his wife won't let him play again. It's a family decision, as he has been saying all along, for years actually.

I don't see how you can distinguish the personal strain on Pettitte's private life due to him facing a highly publicized smear campaign by one of his best friends (being "afraid of Clemens's lawyers") from him deciding that it's a family decision not to pitch in New York. Unless you don't think Pettitte is part of his own family, that is.

If he retires, he only needs to be in New York for legal matters, and he would not be a public figure required to answer to the media on an everyday basis for 8 months. He faces a very serious quality-of-life question due to Clemens' upcoming trial, and I don't see how that isn't a big part of the family decision he makes.

[edit:] Your framing the issue as a matter of his wife calling the shots just makes you sound ignorant.

Edited by Buzzkill Pauley, 07 January 2011 - 11:27 AM.

[jon abbey]

No real news, but some words from the actual horse's mouth (heh):

http://www.nypost.co...4iH6uUuO27kAfAN

[TomRicardo]

Yeah, a guy who matched up in Game 5 of the 1996 World Series against John Smoltz and won the game 1-0 is going to quit playing because he's afraid of Clemens's lawyers.

Pettitte will retire if his wife won't let him play again. It's a family decision, as he has been saying all along, for years actually.

To be fair he was probably using PED at the time to boast his confidence ... oh wait

[kneemoe]

Pettitte will be back. If he wanted to retire, he would have admitted it publicly by now, especially during the Christmas season. He and his wife are in a standoff at the moment. Andy is pleading for one more year. She says you do this to the family every year. I expect a resolution by Jan. 5.

I'm with Terry, I say we have an answer by Jan 5

[terrynever]

Ignorant? I assume some of you guys are married. The wife always has a big say in family decisions. Joe Paterno once turned down the Patriots job because his wife started crying when he told her they were leaving State College.

And since Pettitte's decision has gone beyond Jan. 5, I'm assuming there's still a debate going on between Andy and his wife (Laura?). Otherwise, how tough is it to call Cashman and say I have retired? What's the holdup?

This is like the jury weighing a serious verdict. There's no unaminity yet inside the jury room.

As for me, I've spent the past few days reflecting on what a great career Pettitte has had. If he does go, the Yankees will surely miss him. Even at 39, he would have been a big contributor this season.

[terrynever]

I'm with Terry, I say we have an answer by Jan 5

Asshole.

[glennhoffmania]

Ignorant? I assume some of you guys are married. The wife always has a big say in family decisions. Joe Paterno once turned down the Patriots job because his wife started crying when he told her they were leaving State College.

And since Pettitte's decision has gone beyond Jan. 5, I'm assuming there's still a debate going on between Andy and his wife (Laura?). Otherwise, how tough is it to call Cashman and say I have retired? What's the holdup?

This is like the jury weighing a serious verdict. There's no unaminity yet inside the jury room.

As for me, I've spent the past few days reflecting on what a great career Pettitte has had. If he does go, the Yankees will surely miss him. Even at 39, he would have been a big contributor this season.

I think you missed his point. The point is that, while his family issues are certainly a factor in his decision, so are other external issues. And when one of your supposed good friends is about to go on trial with you as a key witness with some skeletons in your own closet, it's certainly possible that the Clemens situation could be another factor in his decision. No one is saying that his wife/family are irrelevant. You're the one saying that Clemens is.

As for this Jan. 5 date, just because some arbitrary date that you came up with has passed doesn't mean anything.

[terrynever]

I think you missed his point. The point is that, while his family issues are certainly a factor in his decision, so are other external issues. And when one of your supposed good friends is about to go on trial with you as a key witness with some skeletons in your own closet, it's certainly possible that the Clemens situation could be another factor in his decision. No one is saying that his wife/family are irrelevant. You're the one saying that Clemens is.

As for this Jan. 5 date, just because some arbitrary date that you came up with has passed doesn't mean anything.

No kidding. Jan. 5 was just a date. Pettitte's indecision doesn't start hurting the Yankees until only Cashman knows when.

Yeah, I'm saying Clemens is irrelevent to this case, which means I disagree with the writer from Newark. I think Pettitte is his own man.

[Lose Remerswaal]

As for me, I've spent the past few days reflecting on what a great career Pettitte has had. If he does go, the Yankees will surely miss him. Even at 39, he would have been a big contributor this season.

And I thought *I* had too much free time.