In general I agree, I dont want to see them with 100M+ already committed for the near future each year and our farm system is very good. That said, Theo has said before that the goal for the farm system is to bring up one or maybe 2 players up per year who become fulltime MLB players. By my count we need to hit on Salty or another catcher, have Lowrie and Ellsbury get their careers back on track, add 2 more OFs and a DH, thats a lot of opportunity IMO. In the ideal world instead of having 6 question marks in the lineup we would have maybe 2 or 3 to deal with per year, and thats my concern. There is a finite amount of additions/acquisitions that a GM can make in 2 years and I think Theo is slightly above that threshold.
Let's look at what 2012 looks like if no new acquisitions are made and all FA are lost.
C: Salty, Wagner, Expo, Lavarnway
1B: Youk, Rizzo, Lars
2B: Pedroia, Lowrie, Sutton, Navarro
SS: Lowrie, Scutaro, Iglesias, Sutton, Navarro
3B: Lowrie, Youk, Navarro
RF: Reddick, McDonald
CF: Ellsbury, Kalish, Reddick
LF: Kalish, Ellsbury, Reddick
DH: Rizzo, Lars, Lavarnway
This is a fairly conservative estimation of the depth chart. Lavarnway, Expo, Iglesias, and Rizzo are the only guys on it who haven't already played in MLB. I did not include any guys who would need to accelerate their current path to be considered MLB ready by 2012 with the exception of Lavarnway's defense.
Outside of solving third this year and finding an extra outfielder and a DH next year, the starting spots are well-covered internally for 2012. As for the 1-2 prospects per year rule of thumb. Lowrie and Salty are getting added for 2011. One each of Kalish/Reddick and Iglesias/Rizzo/Lars break into the starting lineup in 2012. I'd argue that Lowrie has already been broken in and shouldn't count, but I'm including him anyway since others seem to disagree and he doesn't push me over the limit anyway. In any event, I really don't see anywhere near 6 lineup slots that will be solved externally. Lowrie, Youk, Pedroia and Ellsbury are all locked and loaded for the next 3 seasons or more. So, worst case, we need to fill 5 spots. But, that worst case involves assuming that none of Iglesias, Reddick, Lars, Kalish, Rizzo, or any of our other position player prospects are ready to take on starting roles either this year or next year and that Salty flops. That seems excessively pessimistic. Realistically, 3B needs to get dealt with this offseason, but no matter what, 2012 won't be a real concern. DH needs to be addressed next year. One outfield spot needs to be addressed this year or next year. And, Salty is the catcher of the future.
Edited by JakeRae, 24 November 2010 - 03:57 AM.