566 replies to this topic

[tmljeh19]

absintheofmalaise, on 10 December 2010 - 09:02 PM, said:

I'd say nil. Might want to think that through some more.

What additional thought is needed? Im just asking a question. If we were that mystery team now being reported and did make the signing we would have 6 quality SPs (7 if you count Doubront). Its no secret that Lee is currently better then Lackey, Matsuzaka, Doubront, Beckett and Buchholz. I was simply stating that being able to trade a quality SP is not a hard thing to do since there are very few teams that do not need pitching help.

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

JBill, on 10 December 2010 - 09:14 PM, said:

Mystery Team! Heyman tweet:



Assuming Heyman isn't full of it as usual, is it the Angels?

adding a mystery team to every FA report is one of Heyman's reflexes, something that his master Boras programmed into him, like Sidious' Order 66 was programmed into the Clones.

[Jitter]

Has to be the Angels. Weaver will get expensive soon and the word on the street is they'd like to grab Lee now, as they would prefer Lee @ 23 to Weaver @ 16

[StuckOnYouk]

Would Cashman really go 8 years LOL

This is epic...great job by Lee's agent

[SemperFidelisSox]

Maybe Arte Moreno is feeling some heat from the fanbase after the Crawford deal.

[jon abbey]

StuckOnYouk, on 10 December 2010 - 09:39 PM, said:

This is epic...great job by Lee's agent

It's not the hardest job when you have (at least) two teams with deep pockets that have both decided that signing Lee is far better to the alternative.

[86spike]

Could that be John Henry's music I hear?

[absintheofmalaise]

tmljeh19, on 10 December 2010 - 09:22 PM, said:

What additional thought is needed? Im just asking a question. If we were that mystery team now being reported and did make the signing we would have 6 quality SPs (7 if you count Doubront). Its no secret that Lee is currently better then Lackey, Matsuzaka, Doubront, Beckett and Buchholz. I was simply stating that being able to trade a quality SP is not a hard thing to do since there are very few teams that do not need pitching help.

For starters, there is the length of the contract that would be necessary to sign him and then you move on to the salary cap issues which would still be there because you would need to trade either Beckett or Lackey and eat a good portion of their salary. Matsuzaka is probably a non-starter because of the no trade clause. I could easily be wrong here, but I don't think I am.

[JMDurron]

At this point, I wouldn't be shocked if the 3rd team is the Nats trying to be creative with an insanely high AAV and an early opt-out clause. All they need is the Lee/Werth combo to keep them relevant (and the NL East is basically open behind Philly) until Strasburg returns in 2012, and then look out, suddenly they have a 1-2 playoff punch to rival the Giants. It sounds insane, but no more insane than the Werth deal, and Werth by himself doesn't change a damn thing about that franchise. Cliff Lee would, so as long as they are spending, why not? We know they have more $ to spend, but not how much more that they can throw around, and that would make them instantly watchable in a city full of front-running transplants.

[rembrat]

SemperFidelisSox, on 10 December 2010 - 09:44 PM, said:

Maybe Arte Moreno is feeling some heat from the fanbase after the Crawford deal.

Lost out on Rodriguez
Lost out on Teixeira
Lost out on Crawford

Basically, this is what Arte Moreno does. I expect them to lose out on Lee as well.

[JMDurron]

rembrat, on 10 December 2010 - 10:59 PM, said:

Lost out on Rodriguez
Lost out on Teixeira
Lost out on Crawford

Basically, this is what Arte Moreno does. I expect them to lose out on Lee as well.

I wonder if Moreno/the Angels, in their particular market, are more dependent on TV revenue than a team like the Red Sox. If memory serves, in midseason discussions of TV markets and ratings, the Angels got absolutely brutal TV viewership numbers. It may be that Moreno just doesn't have the kind of payroll flexibility that we are assuming that he does, due to having a team that normally contends in a huge market. If they aren't maximizing that market well enough, perhaps they are hamstrung? Or am I reading too much into a tiny piece of data, and the Angels just disagree with the valuation of the players' value compared to the teams that keep signing them away?

[ToeKneeArmAss]

KeyserSose, on 10 December 2010 - 03:21 PM, said:

That, or he's been tracking a killer 12 pt buck for 3 days and wants to bag it before he signs... weirder things have happened.

12 point? He is an Arkansas boy, isn't he? In Texas, a 12 point wouldn't even be worth being late for lunch.

[Orel Miraculous]

absintheofmalaise, on 10 December 2010 - 10:25 PM, said:

For starters, there is the length of the contract that would be necessary to sign him and then you move on to the salary cap issues which would still be there because you would need to trade either Beckett or Lackey and eat a good portion of their salary. Matsuzaka is probably a non-starter because of the no trade clause. I could easily be wrong here, but I don't think I am.

Ok. Well for starters, there is no salary cap. Moving on from that, I don't think its impossible to find a team that might be willing to take a chance on a guy like Josh Beckett or John Lackey. After all, this is a market where "proven starters" like Jason Marquis and Gil Meche get long term deals without even looking for them. As for Dice-K, sure, he has a no trade clause, but what in the history of the relationship between him and the Red Sox leads you to believe that he loves it here and won't play anywhere else?

I'm not saying that tmljeh is right and that the Sox are in on this, but I'm saying that: 1.) after the Crawford deal, I won't be surprised by anything this front office does; and 2.) your response was obnoxious and obtuse.

[Wingack]

86spike, on 10 December 2010 - 10:13 PM, said:

Could that be John Henry's music I hear?

Part of me hopes so, so I never have to hear about how much money the Yankees spent in the 08 offseason again.

[Jed Zeppelin]

Wingack, on 10 December 2010 - 11:57 PM, said:

Part of me hopes so, so I never have to hear about how much money the Yankees spent in the 08 offseason again.

Except from us.

[crawjo]

Man, this Lee deal will really have the potential to go down as one of the worst in MLB history. There's so many ways it could go really badly for whoever gets him. Watching from the outside, I'm unsure if I should root for the teams I like the most, or the teams I hate the most, to sign him.

[Wingack]

Jed Zeppelin, on 10 December 2010 - 11:59 PM, said:

Except from us.

OK, but then you will have to prepared to get what you give.

[glennhoffmania]

I'd like to know how Heyman comes up with this:

Quote

Heyman also points out that the idea that some of the money can be made up by the decreased taxes in Texas is false; over the seven year contract, the difference would be no more than $1 to 2 million.

Link

By my quick math, it's a minimum of about 4m if he spends the least amount of time possible in NY.

[NYCSox]

glennhoffmania, on 11 December 2010 - 12:23 AM, said:

I'd like to know how Heyman comes up with this:



Link

By my quick math, it's a minimum of about 4m if he spends the least amount of time possible in NY.

It's $1-$2 million per year isn't it?

[glennhoffmania]

You mean the right answer, or what Heyman meant? For the former, it could possibly be about that. For the latter, it seems that Heyman is saying in total.

[absintheofmalaise]

Orel Miraculous, on 10 December 2010 - 11:47 PM, said:

Ok. Well for starters, there is no salary cap. Moving on from that, I don't think its impossible to find a team that might be willing to take a chance on a guy like Josh Beckett or John Lackey. After all, this is a market where "proven starters" like Jason Marquis and Gil Meche get long term deals without even looking for them. As for Dice-K, sure, he has a no trade clause, but what in the history of the relationship between him and the Red Sox leads you to believe that he loves it here and won't play anywhere else?

I'm not saying that tmljeh is right and that the Sox are in on this, but I'm saying that: 1.) after the Crawford deal, I won't be surprised by anything this front office does; and 2.) your response was obnoxious and obtuse.

Sorry, I meant to say luxury tax issues, not salary cap. I'm sure there would be many teams willing to take a chance on Beckett or Lackey, depending on how large a chunk of their salary the Sox would be willing to eat. With Dice-K you'd need to find a team that he'd be willing to go to that also has players or prospects that the Sox need that would also be willing to trade them to the Sox. I would also think it needs to be a team that has a good chance to reach the post-season like his current team does. He'd have to really hate it in Boston to want to go to a team that wouldn't compete like the Sox do. Especially this season.

I was surprised when the Sox signed Crawford, like most people were. I'd have a heart attack if they signed a 32 year old pitcher to a 7 year deal. There is a huge difference between signing a 29 year old position player to signing an older pitcher to the same length contract. There is a much greater chance of Lee becoming ineffective or becoming injured than Crawford. Was that nice enough for you?

[E5 Yaz]

I love Heyman's talk about the mystery team. He says at least twice that the Red Sox are out, but he can't seem to let go of the idea that it could be them. It's like if he says it enough times, he'll believe it.

The Sox really have spooked Yankee Universe and its media lackeys the past week or so

[Reverend]

Orel Miraculous, on 10 December 2010 - 11:47 PM, said:

Ok. Well for starters, there is no salary cap. Moving on from that, I don't think its impossible to find a team that might be willing to take a chance on a guy like Josh Beckett or John Lackey. After all, this is a market where "proven starters" like Jason Marquis and Gil Meche get long term deals without even looking for them. As for Dice-K, sure, he has a no trade clause, but what in the history of the relationship between him and the Red Sox leads you to believe that he loves it here and won't play anywhere else?

I'm not saying that tmljeh is right and that the Sox are in on this, but I'm saying that: 1.) after the Crawford deal, I won't be surprised by anything this front office does; and 2.) your response was obnoxious and obtuse.

I think you may be mistaking restraint for obnoxiousness.

The point that the actual facts of the contract issues matters should stand, I would think, no? I mean, you raise some... speculatively, but you at least bring them up.

[SemperFidelisSox]

If Lee really enjoyed his time with Texas so much and wants to be closer to Arkansas, wouldn't he have accepted their offer by now? He has to know that it's unlikely the Rangers will up their six year offer, whereas the Yankees can and would go to 8 years if pushed.

[manny]

SemperFidelisSox, on 11 December 2010 - 01:31 AM, said:

If Lee really enjoyed his time with Texas so much and wants to be closer to Arkansas, wouldn't he have accepted their offer by now? He has to know that it's unlikely the Rangers will up their six year offer, whereas the Yankees can and would go to 8 years if pushed.

If Lee really only cared about money and wanted to win championships with the Yankees, wouldn't he have accepted their offer by now? He has to know that it's unlikely the Rangers will up their six year offer, so this offer from the Yankees is likely their last.

[tmljeh19]

absintheofmalaise, on 11 December 2010 - 01:07 AM, said:

Sorry, I meant to say luxury tax issues, not salary cap. I'm sure there would be many teams willing to take a chance on Beckett or Lackey, depending on how large a chunk of their salary the Sox would be willing to eat. With Dice-K you'd need to find a team that he'd be willing to go to that also has players or prospects that the Sox need that would also be willing to trade them to the Sox. I would also think it needs to be a team that has a good chance to reach the post-season like his current team does. He'd have to really hate it in Boston to want to go to a team that wouldn't compete like the Sox do. Especially this season.

I was surprised when the Sox signed Crawford, like most people were. I'd have a heart attack if they signed a 32 year old pitcher to a 7 year deal. There is a huge difference between signing a 29 year old position player to signing an older pitcher to the same length contract. There is a much greater chance of Lee becoming ineffective or becoming injured than Crawford. Was that nice enough for you?

I will be the first to admit I'm horrible with player values and contract worth so I didn't throw out a figurebut what if we do offer a 7th year to him like he wants. Homerism aside we have to be more inticing to him then MFY. When he is aging and ending his contract we will be still better set up then a NY team with no Jeter, no Rivera, aged Arod and so on.

[Hyde Park Factor]

Hank chimes in:


"For somebody of that stature, it would certainly behoove him to be a Yankee, which would probably be for the rest of his career," Steinbrenner, the Yankees' co-chairman, said during a telephone interview Friday with The Associated Press. "I think that would be a great move for him but, of course I'm prejudiced."

Read more: http://sportsillustr...l#ixzz17nlStahj

Maybe he just misspoke, but behoove struck me as a really odd word choice. As if there would be consequences for not signing with the Yankees. It's Hank, I know.

Would the Yankees be able to credibly get out of the Lee sweepstakes and allocate those potential resources elsewhere? I think not, as the short term goal in Yankeeland is seen as being exponentially more important than any long term goals that the team may have. The Yanks will see the post season with or without Cliff Lee, so he really only becomes an impact player for a maximum of 6-8 October wins.

Seems like it might behoove the Yankees to spend some of that dough on younger and cheaper talent in an effort to reload, if you will. It won't happen, it can't happen and it's going to be a lot of fun to watch it not happen.

[OCD SS]

absintheofmalaise, on 10 December 2010 - 10:25 PM, said:

Matsuzaka is probably a non-starter because of the no trade clause. I could easily be wrong here, but I don't think I am.

Just a minor quibble, but I could see DiceK being moved with minimal effort to an NL team on a coast with a big ballpark; think Mets or Dodgers. I think he would be amenable to going in an effort to build a resume in preparation for reaching free agency...

That said, I think there is no chance that the Sox are in on Lee.

[Youk of the Nation]

SI.com's Jon Heyman reports that the Rangers originally offered five years and $100MM, but they added a sixth guaranteed year and what is believed to be "some form of option that could turn the new deal into a seven-year contract" when they last visited Lee in Arkansas.


Really solid offer.

[nycdoc999]

crawjo, on 11 December 2010 - 11:52 AM, said:

Oh please. You can't possibly be serious. That's the fundamental skill the sport revolves around? I thought the purpose of pitching was to prevent runs from being scored. Your argument for Nolan Ryan relies on nothing more than sentiment and allegory. The Natural? Jesus, this is hopeless. Forget I ever brought this up. When it comes to Ryan, for whatever reason, people lose all sense of proportion. 2,795 walks. The next highest is 1,833. Zero Cy Youngs. Lifetime record of 2-2 in the postseason. Huh, I guess he COULDN'T throw the ball by any batter whenever he wanted.

I was going to post a reply, but after this comment, nothing more really needs to be said. Agree entirely.

[smastroyin]

I split the Ryan discussion, but had one note that I wanted to add in regards to why the Ryan discussion came up.

Ryan was a freak who was able to pitch a really long time and he was really great at striking people out. I'm not going to argue his HoF credentials, but I am going to say that I see nothing in his approach as a pitcher that would tell me Cliff Lee, a guy who is masterful at pitch location, changing speeds, and setting up hitters, has anything to learn from Ryan. It's not like Ryan can teach a 100 mph fastball.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

smastroyin, on 11 December 2010 - 12:08 PM, said:

I split the Ryan discussion, but had one note that I wanted to add in regards to why the Ryan discussion came up.

Ryan was a freak who was able to pitch a really long time and he was really great at striking people out. I'm not going to argue his HoF credentials, but I am going to say that I see nothing in his approach as a pitcher that would tell me Cliff Lee, a guy who is masterful at pitch location, changing speeds, and setting up hitters, has anything to learn from Ryan. It's not like Ryan can teach a 100 mph fastball.

This I agree with entirely, and I also agree that Ryan's presence won't have anything to do with Lee's decision.

Edited by P'tucket, rhymes with..., 11 December 2010 - 12:11 PM.

[Hee-Seop's Fable]

P'tucket, rhymes with..., on 11 December 2010 - 12:10 PM, said:

This I agree with entirely, and I also agree that Ryan's presence won't have anything to do with Lee's decision.

Except insofar as his conspicuous presence appears to have changed the Ranger's profile as a winning organization. The focus on developing and fielding an effective pitching staff rather than a bunch of mashers had a lot to do with their success this year. His status may not have anything directly to do with Lee's choice, but damn sure it has a lot to do with it indirectly.

If they are just now coming in at 6 years ~$120M, though, I'm impressed they've stayed in it this long. Lee is probably just waiting so he can drive up the Yankees price, but if he is really struggling with the decision, Ryan's impact on the Ranger's has something to do with that. When was the last time anyone here respected what they were doing and considered them a legitimate threat?

[rembrat]

Youk of the Nation, on 11 December 2010 - 10:57 AM, said:

SI.com's Jon Heyman reports that the Rangers originally offered five years and $100MM, but they added a sixth guaranteed year and what is believed to be "some form of option that could turn the new deal into a seven-year contract" when they last visited Lee in Arkansas.


Really solid offer.

So the Yankees offered any one of these deals
5/25 (125)
6/24 (144)
7/23 (161)

While the Rangers offered
5/20 (100)
6/20 (120)
7/20 (140) (option at the 7th year)

That's assuming the Rangers didn't bump up the AAV of the deal once they went to a 6th year.

The Lee's are probably debating whether or not it is worth it to live in NY, and away from Arkansas, just for a few extra million.

[Sille Skrub]

FWIW, Yankee fan Incarcerated Bob is tweeting that Lee is staying in Texas.

Grain, salt, etc...

[jon abbey]

Sille Skrub, on 11 December 2010 - 03:05 PM, said:

FWIW, Yankee fan Incarcerated Bob is tweeting that Lee is staying in Texas.

Grain, salt, etc...

I don't personally have a good feeling about this whole thing, but that guy is wrong more often than not.

[Sille Skrub]

He bats about .500, but yeah I agree with you.

I think Lee stays in Texas because of wifey.

[SemperFidelisSox]

Incarcerated Bob is still waiting for Lebron to sign with the Knicks.

Lee isn't taking $15-20 million less because he likes summers in Arkansas. Doesn't Burnett live in Arkansas and have his own private plane?

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

SemperFidelisSox, on 11 December 2010 - 03:34 PM, said:

Doesn't Burnett live in Arkansas and have his own private plane?

Private plane? Do you think Cashman is secretly hoping he'll "Munson/Lidle" it on one of his trips?

[ivanvamp]

rembrat, on 11 December 2010 - 01:21 PM, said:

So the Yankees offered any one of these deals
5/25 (125)
6/24 (144)
7/23 (161)

While the Rangers offered
5/20 (100)
6/20 (120)
7/20 (140) (option at the 7th year)

That's assuming the Rangers didn't bump up the AAV of the deal once they went to a 6th year.

The Lee's are probably debating whether or not it is worth it to live in NY, and away from Arkansas, just for a few extra million.

I read somewhere that between NYC and NY state taxes, you'd have to take off another 10% off a Yankee salary. 10% of 161 million is 16.1 million. So if that's true, then the deals, in terms of real money, look more like this:

Yankees - Rangers
5/112.5 - 5/100
6/129.6 - 6/120
7/144.9 - 7/140

So if you're trying to decide between NY and Texas, and the price difference is $4.9 million in real dollars, is that amount enough to sway Lee? Or is it too small such that he'd forsake it to live in the south (if that is, indeed, where he prefers to be)?

Put it this way: 4.9 million is a lot closer than 21 million.

[Rasputin]

I have to wonder how much value there is in becoming one of the iconic players for a team.

If Lee signs with the Yankees will be be any different than Mussina or Sabathia or any of the other excellent pitchers who have signed there? If he stays with Texas he has a chance to be one of the heroes of the franchise, the key cog on the teams that took the franchise from being just another crappy franchise to playing in and perhaps winning a world series.

From my just-a-guy perspective I would think that would have a significant value, not enough in my life to make five million dollars of difference, but if I'm already guaranteed a hundred million it probably would be worth five million.

[jon abbey]

Rasputin, on 11 December 2010 - 04:48 PM, said:

If Lee signs with the Yankees will be be any different than Mussina or Sabathia or any of the other excellent pitchers who have signed there? If he stays with Texas he has a chance to be one of the heroes of the franchise, the key cog on the teams that took the franchise from being just another crappy franchise to playing in and perhaps winning a world series.

Of course, if they don't make the World Series again, it will be quickly remembered that Lee got shelled twice in the one he did lead them to.

There are cases to be made for both sides, certainly. I worry that NY isn't trying to convince him of their merits, that they're letting their money do all of their talking for them. Hopefully CC and others are at work behind the scenes, because I know Texas' players and organization are.

[Sille Skrub]

If Lee goes to Texas, will this be the first time the NYY missed out on a FA they really wanted?

No snark intended, seriously asking...

[Dan Murfman]

Sille Skrub, on 11 December 2010 - 05:16 PM, said:

If Lee goes to Texas, will this be the first time the NYY missed out on a FA they really wanted?

No snark intended, seriously asking...

Listening to Francesca the one he talks about is Greg Maddux going to Atlanta. So you have to go back to '93.

[JBill]

Despite twitter panic, writers for both Yanks and Rangers are saying the teams haven't heard anything and don't expect news today.

[JMDurron]

BannedbyNYYFans.com, on 11 December 2010 - 03:38 PM, said:

Private plane? Do you think Cashman is secretly hoping he'll "Munson/Lidle" it on one of his trips?

If Lee signs with NY, perhaps they could car pool?

I think this is all to get more money out of NY, or to let that 3rd mystery team do something impressively reckless. I've been wrong before, and hope to be wrong now, but this just smells like gamesmanship. There is nothing tangible or rational in favor of Texas here. The team resources, commitment to doing whatever it takes to win, offensive backup, marketing dollars, media exposure, and even the ballpark dimensions all point to NY. The only arguments for Texas are things like "being closer to home" and "being the face of the franchise." I will be shocked and amazed if Lee stays in Texas.

[E5 Yaz]

Sille Skrub, on 11 December 2010 - 05:16 PM, said:

If Lee goes to Texas, will this be the first time the NYY missed out on a FA they really wanted?

No snark intended, seriously asking...

I doubt we'd ever really find out the answer to this. All teams are pretty versed in what to say once a top-flight guy signs elsewhere.

As far as a public courtship, the Maddux one was the first that came to my mind

[glennhoffmania]

Sille Skrub, on 11 December 2010 - 05:16 PM, said:

If Lee goes to Texas, will this be the first time the NYY missed out on a FA they really wanted?

No snark intended, seriously asking...

Obviously it's not the same thing, but they lost out on Dice-K.

[AlNipper49]

It is questionable their interest at the time, but Pettitte to Houston

[glennhoffmania]

Good one, Nip. I thought they wanted him but his wife made him move closer to home after he lost Jesus for a few days, so I think that counts.