Posted 04 November 2010 - 09:10 PM
Critical Question for Sean - do their asking prices tend to rise once the season ends in Baseball Mogul? That is a huge variable that I cannot account for right now.
To go more in depth, a look at how our soon-to-be FA players, their historical performances, and the roster situation.
Bernie Carbo - Carbo is seeking a 3-year deal. Carbo is currently in year 6 (age 26) of what historically was a 12-year career. In 1974, he put up a 249/364/414 line, good for an OPS+ of 117. He played in 117 games, and played 56 games in RF, 33 games in LF, and 15 games at DH. From 1975-1977, he put up an OPS of 892, 692, and 931. He should absolutely be kept after this season. He is currently the 2nd best OFer on our team, but becomes the 4th best guy if Rice and Lynn are called up.
Doug Griffin - Seeking a 2-year deal. Historically, Griffin's 1974 season (5th in the majors) was the best of his career, offensively. 266/329/330, which made for 660/85 (OPS/OPS+, I like shorthand). That's not good, but that's fine for a backup 2B. In 93 games in 1974, all but one were at 2B. I suspect that he will not hit this performance level with his Baseball Mogul rating of 66/69, and he is probably not worth keeping after this season unless he puts up some kind of shocking production as a backup. Even if he does, he got progressively worse in 1975 and 1976, so I don't think we want any part of that. This is a fungible player. Juan Beniquez can be called up to replace him next year.
Danny Cater - Seeking a 2-year deal. He is 34 and at the end of the line. Historically, he put up a 246/309/405 line, or 714/98. Fine for a backup 1B. It would be pointless to keep him past this season with Cooper ready to come up, and Yaz also able to cover 1B. He played 22 crappy games in 1975 and was then out of the league.
Bob Didier - He sucks and is in A ball. He sucked and should have been left in A ball in 1974. 071/176/071 in 17 PA. Kevin Cash approves of his -28 OPS+ in his last MLB appearance. Goodbye.
Juan Marichal - Seeking a 2-year deal at age 36. His 92 Mogul rating is fantastic, his historical 1974 was less so. He only started 9 games, going 5-1 with a 4.87 ERA in 51.7 IP. His rating for this simulation looks awesome, so if Sean Berry is right about Mogul understating injuries, we might just get an awesome year out of him. He made 2 starts in 1975 and then was out of baseball. If he plays to his rating (how is it not lower than peak at age 36?), then we can look at going year-to-year with him, but there's no way he should get a multiyear deal.
Rick Wise - Seeking a 4-year deal. This one is a really interesting case. He has the 3rd best rating among the starting pitchers. He is 28 in 1974. Historically, Wise threw a very nice, large number of roughly average innings in his MLB career. 221 IP per 162 games, with an ERA+ of 101 from 1964-1982. His 1974 season was derailed by injury, going 3-4 with a 3.86 ERA in only 9 starts/49 innings. ERA+ of 101. From 1975-1978, the time period of his desired contract, he averaged 30 starts, 205 IP, and an ERA+ of 100 per season. That broke down into excellent 1975 and 1976 campaigns, an injury-shortened 1977, and a below average 1978 season. He was traded to Cleveland for Dennis Eckersley in 1978. Wise looks like another great candidate for any kind of "Mogul Injury Bonus". If healthy, I like the idea of signing him after the season, but not before then. He's the most expensive of the 3 reasonable starters to re-sign, so I think we need to see how the rest of the roster looks by then. We can't plan on being able to trade him for Eckersley later.
Bill Lee - Seeking a 2-year deal. This seems like an easy one to me. At age 27, Lee is coming off a fantastic 1973 campaign, and was still quite good in 1974. Frankly, I'm surprised that he is rated below Wise and Cleveland. In 1974, Lee went 17-15 with a 3.51 ERA in 37 starts over 282.1 IP, ERA+ of 111. Going by IP/ERA+ to keep it short, he was similarly good in 1975 at 260/105, then suffered his infamous brawl injury in 1976. I'd bet against that happening here. His injury-plagued 1976 (96/70) and 1977 (128/103) seasons gave way to a bounceback in 1978 (177/120) at age 31. I say screw the 2-year deal, and go for 4. That should help keep the AAV down. If we clear some payroll, I'd do the extension pre or mid-season.
Reggie Cleveland - Seeking a 3-year deal. Another tough one, like Rise. Mogul rates him above Lee, history tells a different story. Cleveland is only 25 (b-ref says 26, must have an early birthday) in 1974, and went 12-14 with a 4.31 ERA in 27 starts over 221.1 IP. He apparently made 14 relief appearances as well. From 1975-1977, Cleveland averaged 20 starts and 16 relief appearances per season, averaging 177 IP and putting up an ERA+ of 108. He had no significant career split between starting and relief duty. He seems to beg for a "wait and see" approach.
Dick Drago - Seeking a 3-year deal. He is 28/29 in 1974, and was historically drafted into the rotation when both Wise and Marichal went down with injuries. He went 7-10 with a 3.48 ERA in 18 starts and 15 relief appearances over 175.2 IP, ERA+ of 112. From 1975-1977, Drago returned to the bullpen and averaged 71 IP and an ERA+ of 96. His best years as a starter were from 1969-1973, and his best bullpen years were ahead of him, from 1978-1980. His rating in Mogul just screams "Will Outperform His History!" to me, and I think he can do great things for this team in the bullpen. If a starter gets injured, it will be a tough debate between shifting Drago to the rotation, sending Moret instead, or calling up John Tudor. Going forward, I am inclined to meet his demands.
Roger Moret - Seeking a 2-year deal. He is 24 in 1974 and was also drafted into the rotation when both Wise and Marichal went down. He is in his 5th MLB season, so apparently Mogul shortened his "under control" time a bit. He went 9-10 with a 3.74 ERA in 21 starts and 10 relief appearances over 173.1 IP, good for an ERA+ of 104. From 1975-1976, Moret appears to have been the long man/6th starter both seasons, with an excellent 1975 (145/115), and a poor 1976 (77.1/76). He was more effective as a reliever historically, allowing an OPS against of 704 while starting, and 666 in relief. I think the decision on Moret depends greatly upon how well the rotation holds up and how well the other relievers pitch. He's young and relatively cheap, but not good enough to be on anyone's wish list, as I think his Mogul rating implies that he will underperform his 1975 historical numbers going forward.
