337 replies to this topic

[Seels]

Well aside from the obvious relationship with Theo / Tito issues, where would he play? We have Crawford in left, Ellsbury in center and Drew in right. Manny wouldn't accept a part time role, and I find it very doubtful that the FO would see him being in LF and either Ellsbury or Drew traded / riding the pine as an improvement.

and given Manny's defensive liabilities, signing a 39 yo guy that can only DH or play LF seems not only shortsighted, but very much against the flexibility the team seems to go for.

Edited by Seels, 19 December 2010 - 09:36 AM.

[Dick Pole Upside]

Greinke to Brewers:

Welcome to Suds City

Milwaukee could be a great landing spot for him.

[Savin Hillbilly]

EdRalphRomero, on 19 December 2010 - 09:21 AM, said:

OK. Tell me why I am nuts.

Because we already have Papi's platoon partner. His name is Mike Cameron. He hits LHP as well as Manny at this point, but unlike Manny can actually play the outfield when needed. I can't see what Manny would bring to the team that Cameron doesn't already have covered.

[EdRalphRomero]

Savin Hillbilly, on 19 December 2010 - 10:16 AM, said:

Because we already have Papi's platoon partner. His name is Mike Cameron. He hits LHP as well as Manny at this point, but unlike Manny can actually play the outfield when needed. I can't see what Manny would bring to the team that Cameron doesn't already have covered.

OK. So against LHP Cameron starts at DH and you have all three LHH outfielders? Less than ideal right? In other words, what Manny would address is that Cameron can't play four positions against LHP.

[Savin Hillbilly]

EdRalphRomero, on 19 December 2010 - 10:21 AM, said:

OK. So against LHP Cameron starts at DH and you have all three LHH outfielders? Less than ideal right? In other words, what Manny would address is that Cameron can't play four positions against LHP.

1) That's what Darnell McDonald is for--he's a better defensive player than Manny, which gives Tito more versatility (he could, if he wished, sit two LHH OF's and leave Papi in the lineup against a particular LHP), and will cost much less;

2) Realistically, there's no way Tito is going to do a straight platoon with any of the LHH--not Drew or Ortiz, and certainly not Ellsbury or Crawford. At most, you might see Ortiz sit for about 30 games vs. LHP, and about the same or less for Drew.

In short, Manny would be overkill, and awkwardly inflexible overkill at that.

[snowmanny]

They have a lot of flexibility as presently constructed. Scutaro's OPS vs LHP was 144 points higher than Papi's last year. Against lefties they can play Cameron and put Scutaro at SS and Lowrie at third base. Then Youkilis is the DH, giving him some rest. Ortiz can then pinch hit for Cameron whenever. That leaves three lefties in the line-up (Gonzalez, Crawford and Ellsbury); two if MacDonald is on the team and subs for one of the OF. Not sure what Manny adds offensively over what he would subtract defensively.

[rglenmt]

I like the enthusiasm of Mike Cameron and Darnell McDonald. Both complement an outfield of Crawford, Ellsbury and Drew and help the need for RH balance. Of course, Youkilis and Pedroia will both be back also so the so-called inbalance should not be as much of a concern as has been suggested, particularly because Crawford and Gonzalez can both successfully take the ball to opposite field.

[EdRalphRomero]

Savin Hillbilly, on 19 December 2010 - 10:32 AM, said:

1) That's what Darnell McDonald is for--he's a better defensive player than Manny, which gives Tito more versatility (he could, if he wished, sit two LHH OF's and leave Papi in the lineup against a particular LHP), and will cost much less;

2) Realistically, there's no way Tito is going to do a straight platoon with any of the LHH--not Drew or Ortiz, and certainly not Ellsbury or Crawford. At most, you might see Ortiz sit for about 30 games vs. LHP, and about the same or less for Drew.

In short, Manny would be overkill, and awkwardly inflexible overkill at that.

JD Drew's line against lefties in 2010: .208/.302/.309
David Ortiz same: .222/.275/.324
Carl Crawford same: .256/.312/.384

I would argue that represents a big enough problem for a large enough section of your line-up that you need to address it with more than Cameron and Darnell. And I would likewise argue that it may merit carrying another position player and giving up that extra bullpen binky as well.

Edited by EdRalphRomero, 19 December 2010 - 11:23 AM.

[Yaz4Ever]

EdRalphRomero, on 19 December 2010 - 11:20 AM, said:

JD Drew's line against lefties in 2010: .208/.302/.309
David Ortiz same: .222/.275/.324
Carl Crawford same: .256/.312/.384

I would argue that represents a big enough problem for a large enough section of your line-up that you need to address it with more than Cameron and Darnell. And I would likewise argue that it may merit carrying another position player and giving up that extra bullpen binky as well.

You definitely make good points, but I would argue that this is why I'd like to see Theo finish up this offseason by acquiring Upton in a way that reunites the Drew brothers. Ideally, subsidizing J.D.'s salary a bit would reduce the prospect cost somewhat. This makes us younger, stronger, and less LH. I don't know what Theo would have to do to make this happen, but I'd love to see him try. A move like this, imho, makes us the odds on favorites to meet the Phillies and their power rotation in the WS.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

EdRalphRomero, on 19 December 2010 - 10:21 AM, said:

OK. So against LHP Cameron starts at DH and you have all three LHH outfielders? Less than ideal right? In other words, what Manny would address is that Cameron can't play four positions against LHP.

Wouldn't Manny basically be Mike Lowell redux? An overpriced and diminished right handed hitter who you want to have no part in playing defensively. Except I can't picture Manny being anywhere near as professional as Lowell was with a part-time role.

Unless MLB is planning to add a 26th or 27th roster position, I can't see how he'd fit with the Red Sox. Frankly, without additional roster spots they simply can't carry enough RHHs, regardless of who they are, to be able to get all those LHHs out of the lineup against every LHP.

[Savin Hillbilly]

If the lineup's vulnerability to LHP is really so extreme that the only way to address it adequately is by full-scale platooning at multiple positions, then the first step we need to take, before we start stockpiling RHH's, is to fire Francona. He has made it pretty clear in the past that he prefers to go with a set lineup, warts and all--using platoon considerations, at most, as a criterion for picking days off. I think it's possible, given Ortiz's age and the fact that his bat is his only contribution, that Tito will be persuaded to something like a modified platoon arrangement at DH this year, and I think he'll see the sense in giving Drew some extra days off vs. LHP. But if anyone really expects to see Crawford sitting out more than 5-10 games this year for any reason other than injury, then I think they must also be expecting a change of managers.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

EdRalphRomero, on 19 December 2010 - 11:20 AM, said:

JD Drew's line against lefties in 2010: .208/.302/.309
David Ortiz same: .222/.275/.324
Carl Crawford same: .256/.312/.384

I would argue that represents a big enough problem for a large enough section of your line-up that you need to address it with more than Cameron and Darnell. And I would likewise argue that it may merit carrying another position player and giving up that extra bullpen binky as well.

Mike Cameron's line against lefties in 2010: .357/.438/.690 (1.128 OPS)
Jed Lowrie same: .338/.420/.606 (1.026 OPS)
Darnell McDonald same: .294/.357/.464 (.821 OPS)

Manny Ramirez same: .260/.431/.400 (.831 OPS)

I would argue that the Sox already have the solutions to this problem in-house as Option 1, for less total money and providing an exponentially greater amount of defensive and clubhouse value than could possibly hoped for Manny.

Whether Tito will address the problem adequately throughout the season, and whether in-season injuries allow it, still remains to be seen. But there's no way Manny makes sense for this team. If Option 1 isn't good enough, there are an enormous range of better solutions before it even makes sense to mention Manny. I can think of five just off the top of my head.

Option 2: Justin Upton (23, career .294/.393/.526 vs. LHP)
Option 3: Conor Jackson (28, career .294/.395/.462 vs. LHP)
Option 4: Josh Fields (28, career .293/.357/.600 vs. LHP)
Option 5: Marcus Thames (34, career .264/..333/.505 vs. LHP)

[reggiecleveland]

Perhaps the Sox are taking a long term view on this. Papi and Drew are gone after this year, them more balance returns.

It disappoints me that I have to watch Papi flail away at lefties for an entire year. The fact we may start four Lugoes against lefties worries me.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

reggiecleveland, on 19 December 2010 - 12:44 PM, said:

The fact we may start four Lugoes against lefties worries me.

Four Lugos? Isn't that a tad over-dramatic? Ortiz vs lefties won't be pretty, no question. Drew struggled last year, but historically has not been that bad vs lefties. So that's two. Crawford's career OPS vs lefties is .697 (.702 in 2010). Not good, but hardly cringe-worthy either.

Where are you getting four?

[reggiecleveland]

I don't think Ellsbury will be very good. You can save this post as a bookmark, and drill me with it later if he has a good year.

[Rasputin]

reggiecleveland, on 19 December 2010 - 01:28 PM, said:

I don't think Ellsbury will be very good. You can save this post as a bookmark, and drill me with it later if he has a good year.

And you do think Francona is going to consistently run four players out there who are crappy against lefties in spite of having players much better against lefties on his bench.

I think when it comes down to it, the players who hit better against lefties are going to see more plate appearances against lefties than the players who don't.

[AZBlue]

According the ESPN.com:

Former Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke has been traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, sources told ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney on Sunday morning. The Royals needed to move Zack Greinke, and the Brewers had just the right pieces to make it happen. Whether they fit the way Kansas City hopes, well, we'll have to see about that, ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick writes. Story

In the deal, the Royals are reportedly acquiring Brewers outfielder Lorenzo Cain, shortstop Alcides Escobar and pitching prospects Jake Odorizzi and Jeremy Jeffress for the 27-year-old Greinke, 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA in 2010 after winning the 2009 Cy Young.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Red(s)HawksFan, on 19 December 2010 - 01:07 PM, said:

Four Lugos? Isn't that a tad over-dramatic? Ortiz vs lefties won't be pretty, no question. Drew struggled last year, but historically has not been that bad vs lefties. So that's two. Crawford's career OPS vs lefties is .697 (.702 in 2010). Not good, but hardly cringe-worthy either.

Where are you getting four?

More than a tad.

First, we know Tito will keep Ellsbury, Crawford, and Gonzalez in the lineup against LHP if they hit around their career norms -- then again, their splits don't generally create that big a problem on paper.

Second, we know Tito's never had a partner like Mike Cameron to platoon with Drew, and I think that at this stage of both their careers, it makes complete sense that Tito will be following a pretty strict L/R platoon in RF so long as both are healthy. Cameron has the bat, range, and arm to make that work so very much better than Pena, Kielty, or Baldelli. So long as he can get back to 90% of the player he was before surgery, at least.

Third, we know that regular-season Tito likes to keep his players happy, so Ortiz will bat against some LHP. Yes, that will suck a bit, but at least Tito has publicly said he plans to bat him down in the lineup, and to sit him against tough lefties. So it's likely he won't be in the lineup when/if the Sox go up against Sabathia, Price, Wilson, Liriano, Lee, or Hamels. That's enough, I have faith the rest of the lineup can bash enough to make up for his feeble waving against lesser lefty starters.

To me, the most pressing concern involves letting Ortiz bat against loogy junkballers. Yet how much of a concern is that, really? If the game was against a RHP starter, Tito's got three great pinch-hitting weapons on the bench against LHP in Lowrie, Cameron, and McDonald. If the game was against a tough LHP, Ortiz probably wasn't in the lineup anyway. Right now I'd say LAA has the best LHRP weapons to neutralize the Sox lineup, but their best four starters are probably RHPs.

[geoduck no quahog]

I have a real problem with using raw macro statistics concerning LHH versus LHP. The relative sample size is small by definition so right off the bat comparative statistics are going to be skewed. Then you throw in a lack of situational impacts and what ends up happening is the mathematics takes over from the intuition.

I'm not saying "X" is good or not good against LHP, but

was it against bona fide Loogy's?
was it against CC, or Lee, or other 1st tier pitchers?
was it as a lefty unprotected by the next hitter?
was the hitter in a slump (or hurt) regardless of the pitcher?
or even, was it in a lefty-dominated lineup that a LHP may not be used to experiencing...

I'm a great believer in baseball statistics revealing subtleties, but not so much on the big stuff - unless it's done in context and there's enough evidence to validate things.

I, for one, am not concerned about the handedness of the lineup until it's proven to be a problem. The only problem that's independent of batter proficiency is the issue of forcing an opposing manager to burn his bullpen quicker by changing matchups...and that can be done with the bench.

[reggiecleveland]

Rasputin, on 19 December 2010 - 01:30 PM, said:

And you do think Francona is going to consistently run four players out there who are crappy against lefties in spite of having players much better against lefties on his bench.

I think when it comes down to it, the players who hit better against lefties are going to see more plate appearances against lefties than the players who don't.

I hope you are right but Ortiz stayed in there all last year against lefties when we had Lowell that could really do nothing but DH against lefties on the team. Everything I have seen this off-season (not offering a ton of money to Downs, Martin,) makes it seem the plan is long term. A lineup built around Gonzales, Youk, Pedroia, Crawford, has a long term potential to be excellent.
I hope they play Scutaro and Lowrie both against lefties.

Edited by reggiecleveland, 19 December 2010 - 04:18 PM.

[YTF]

EdRalphRomero, on 19 December 2010 - 09:21 AM, said:

I know this has been discussed (and largely discarded) but can someone tell me why it wouldn't make sense for the Red Sox to take a run at Manny?

The Pros:

In a (for him) terrible year in 2010 he still put up a .298/.409/.460 line
I think we can all agree that the Sox biggest area of offensive concern is hitting LHP. Despite having a reverse split last year, Manny has traditionally hit lefties better than righties.
This would be an opportunity for the Sox to reform the relationship with Manny and avoid all the awkwardness and talk as he goes into HOF, etc
Manny could platton with Papi (That probably goes down as one of the weirdest sentences I have ever written) and serve as bat off bench and (hopefully) occasional left fielder.

The Cons:

Mysterious groin injury
39 years old
Scott Boras
Declining offensive skills
I heard there was some unpleasantness when he left Boston
Despite his weird threats to retire, it also seems that he wants a deal which will set him up to try to get a multi year deal (Manny logic). Will he want to be a part-time player?

There doesn't seem to be much of a market for him. I just saw him on a list of players likely to not have deals by ST. Of course Boras has a long list of mystery teams. Obviously, the key to all of this would be the fact that the Sox would be able to bring him back, but would not be nearly as dependent on him and therefore would not be as prone to "death by Manny." He strikes me as exactly the type of player the Red Sox payroll should allow them to add. They can afford the risk and can reap the potential upside. This is a team that runs itself as a business first and foremost. I certainly understand that Manny's past behavior needs to be taken into the equation, but a grudge should not.

OK. Tell me why I am nuts.

OK, here's why. I'm guessing just about every team would like to have Manny's bat coming off the bench, but there's a reason no one's signed him yet. For the Sox part I'm guessing that with the lineup they've constructed, they would rather flexibility and defense coming from the three bench spots available (not counting catcher, cause you gotta have one) and the leaves Manny out. Forget the way he left town, he's just not a good fit. Seriously, he's going to consider coming back to hit off the bench? And if you can't forget how he left town then I ask this. You want to bring Manny back to a team that still has guys who feel that he quit on them? Why even entertain THAT idea when you have the possibility (maybe just slight one) the the bullpen could become a sideshow at some point this season?

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Some updates via twitter:

• Josh Fields to the Bucs. The PPP reservoir is drying out, but of course, I doubt now whether the Sox make any additional moves in that direction anyway...
• And Crain gets 3/13 from the White Sox. Really, I think Jenks at 2/12 is going to be a much, much better signing.

[kazuneko]

Buzzkill Pauley, on 20 December 2010 - 03:40 PM, said:

Some updates via twitter:

• Josh Fields to the Bucs. The PPP reservoir is drying out, but of course, I doubt now whether the Sox make any additional moves in that direction anyway...
• And Crain gets 3/13 from the White Sox. Really, I think Jenks at 2/12 is going to be a much, much better signing.

Kinda surprised the Sox never appeared interested in Fields. As a last guy on the bench, potential PPP type he seems a better fit than McDonald (due to being able to back up multiple positions). Anyway, guess the moment has passed...

Edited by kazuneko, 21 December 2010 - 02:55 AM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

kazuneko, on 20 December 2010 - 06:01 PM, said:

Kinda surprised the Sox never appeared interested in Fields. As a last guy in the bench, potential PPP type he seems a better fit than McDonald (due to being able to back up multiple positions). Anyway, guess the moment has passed...

Well, since he signed with Pittsburgh, it's not like he won't be available at the deadline!

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

Rosenthal:

Quote

The Angels have not given up their pursuit of free-agent third baseman Adrian Beltre, major-league sources say.

However, the team thus far is unwilling to meet agent Scott Boras' price, as related by baseball executives — five years in the $85 to $90 million range, or even a six-year deal with a comparable salary.

The Angels have offered Beltre a five-year contract in the $70 million range, one source said.

[HriniakPosterChild]

Omar's Wacky Neighbor, on 21 December 2010 - 04:26 PM, said:

Rosenthal: The Angels have offered Beltre a five-year contract in the $70 million range, one source said.

But what is the Mystery Team® offering?

"I would have to say in my years of doing this, I've never had so much interest in one player," said Boras. "I'm not sure the media quite understands what Boston did for Adrian Beltre. But I think his leadership has come to surface. We've had a number of teams contact us, vastly more than we ever expected. We expected a good number certainly, but there are teams wanting to move players to make room for him."

Yup.

[Mugsys Jock]

HriniakPosterChild, on 22 December 2010 - 03:06 AM, said:

But what is the Mystery Team® offering?

"I would have to say in my years of doing this, I've never had so much interest in one player," said Boras. "I'm not sure the media quite understands what Boston did for Adrian Beltre. But I think his leadership has come to surface. We've had a number of teams contact us, vastly more than we ever expected. We expected a good number certainly, but there are teams wanting to move players to make room for him."

Yup.

C'mon Rockies!!

[sachilles]

Merely a side note.
The MLB network program "Hot Stove" just did a quick segment on who gained and who lost weight over the off season.

Lackey was the only Red Sox named; he lost 15 lbs. Complete with a picture of him on the mound looking rather svelte. Like all the spring training pictures, he was in a t-shirt rather than a uniform, altering the normal view.

Beckett's gutt was not available for comment.

MFY's Sabathia and Chamberlain were amongst the folks mentioned as reporting in with extra pounds.

I'm sure the photos will start filtering in on Monday.

Edited by sachilles, 12 February 2011 - 04:16 PM.

[OttoC]

sachilles, on 12 February 2011 - 04:04 PM, said:

Merely a side note.
...on who gained and who lost wait over the off season...
...
I'm sure the photos will start filtering in on Monday.

Don't you mean we'll have to weight for Monday's photographs?

[sachilles]

d'oh, fixed.

[Savin Hillbilly]

sachilles, on 12 February 2011 - 04:04 PM, said:

MFY's Sabathia and Chamberlain were amongst the folks mentioned as reporting in with extra pounds.

The 2011 Yankee offseason really is the gift that keeps on giving, isn't it?

[Al Zarilla]

sachilles, on 12 February 2011 - 04:04 PM, said:

Merely a side note.
The MLB network program "Hot Stove" just did a quick segment on who gained and who lost weight over the off season.

Lackey was the only Red Sox named; he lost 15 lbs. Complete with a picture of him on the mound looking rather svelte. Like all the spring training pictures, he was in a t-shirt rather than a uniform, altering the normal view.

Beckett's gutt was not available for comment.

MFY's Sabathia and Chamberlain were amongst the folks mentioned as reporting in with extra pounds.

I'm sure the photos will start filtering in on Monday.

The CC thread in SOSH Yankeeland said he'd lost 30 or maybe 15 pounds. Need a picture to settle this.

[reggiecleveland]

Al Zarilla, on 12 February 2011 - 06:29 PM, said:

The CC thread in SOSH Yankeeland said he'd lost 30 or maybe 15 pounds. Need a picture to settle this.

Rotoworld has Cashman guessing 15 and others saying 30. So gaining seems unlikely.

Wait isn't he the the guy that proves it doesn't matter what you weigh?

[pokey_reese]

This NY Post article:
http://www.nypost.co...1BPJGfWNgzFEJtN

...says that he lost weight to help ease the burden on his knees. He is still a big man regardless, but I don't think that he has gotten heavier this winter.

[bosockboy]

Saw a tidbit in a Pirates chat the other day that the Bucs are shopping Ryan Doumit.....he seems like he would be the perfect 25th guy on the bench....can play corner OF and 1B and adds catching depth as well. Not sure if he's worth a couple million more than McDonald, but he'd be an interesting fit.

[The Boomer]

pokey_reese, on 13 February 2011 - 01:32 AM, said:

This NY Post article:
http://www.nypost.co...1BPJGfWNgzFEJtN

...says that he lost weight to help ease the burden on his knees. He is still a big man regardless, but I don't think that he has gotten heavier this winter.

I heard an interesting discussion on my XM car radio today. Soriano isn't the only Yankees fireballer who can opt out of his contract after this season. Apparently CC has that player option. They were criticizing the Yankees for giving out these contracts. To retain either or both of these pitchers if they perform well, they will pay an even greater premium. That sounds like a lose-lose proposition. If they disappoint, you grossly overpay but, if they just match expectations, you are probably forced to make them the highest paid players at what they do just to retain them. Soriano could be important going forward with Rivera, at his age, possibly becoming the 2010 version of Trevor Hoffman in any season going forward.

Edited by The Boomer, 15 February 2011 - 08:08 PM.

[shepard50]

The Boomer, on 15 February 2011 - 08:08 PM, said:

I heard an interesting discussion on my XM car radio today. Soriano isn't the only Yankees fireballer who can opt out of his contract after this season. Apparently CC has that player option. They were criticizing the Yankees for giving out these contracts. To retain either or both of these pitchers if they perform well, they will pay an even greater premium. That sounds like a lose-lose proposition. If they disappoint, you grossly overpay but, if they just match expectations, you are probably forced to make them the highest paid players at what they do just to retain them. Soriano could be important going forward with Rivera, at his age, possibly becoming the 2010 version of Trevor Hoffman in any season going forward.

8 pages of SoSH polling and discussion on the subject of CC's option here.

[strek1]

Pretty soon the games will start. Can't wait. I've never been so eager to watch split squads in action!!