337 replies to this topic

[Sprowl]

John Buck has been one of the three worst catchers in all of baseball at stopping the running game, and what data we have says he's a below average handler of pitchers. The same data has Varitek as #1 and Saltalamacchia tied for #2, and there is no other rationale for the 4/$40 Varitek contract than their belief that he really does have that skill, and a belief that Salty has it goes a long way to explaining their interest in him.

What are these data? You're making some specific claims about ranking that seem to me to be out of place when describing catcher defense, which is notoriously difficult to quantify. It's possible to put numbers on throwing out runners, passed balls, and framing pitches; it's also possible to compare pitchers' performance when throwing to different catchers, but pitch-calling and pitcher-handling still look to me like qualitative assessments.

[Eric Van]

What are these data? You're making some specific claims about ranking that seem to me to be out of place when describing catcher defense, which is notoriously difficult to quantify. It's possible to put numbers on throwing out runners, passed balls, and framing pitches; it's also possible to compare pitchers' performance when throwing to different catchers, but pitch-calling and pitcher-handling still look to me like qualitative assessments.

The data is from the Fielding Bible and is, in all wacky places, in the thread about 2011 catching.

[Plympton91]

Given your take on Buck it appears that either the strong rumors of their interest in Buck are completely unfounded/a smoke screen or they are massively slipping when it comes to talent evaluation. I would hope they would never pass on an elite reserve C in Tek in favor of a total flathead in Buck who can barely hit and is one of the worst defenders around.

The other explanation is that they see Buck's 2010 as a new established level of production based on their major league scouting. I would be skeptical of such a conclusion based on the atrocious plate discipline and worried that the bump in batting average was just a run of luck on balls in play. But, as with EV, if the Red Sox sign John Buck, then it becomes, In Theo I trust (especially on offense).

[Savin Hillbilly]

Padres trade Mujica, Webb for Cameron Maybin

It seems to me that this affects the Sox in two ways:

(1) The likelihood of Ellsbury being a key piece in a Gonzalez deal goes way down, and thus the likelihood of having to give up Lowrie if we want Gonzalez goes way up (unless we can get Gonzalez for a package made up entirely of prospects).

(2) If we had any ideas of trading for a SD reliever, we can probably let go of them.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Padres trade Mujica, Webb for Cameron Maybin

It seems to me that this affects the Sox in two ways:

(1) The likelihood of Ellsbury being a key piece in a Gonzalez deal goes way down, and thus the likelihood of having to give up Lowrie if we want Gonzalez goes way up (unless we can get Gonzalez for a package made up entirely of prospects).

(2) If we had any ideas of trading for a SD reliever, we can probably let go of them.

(3) The likelihood of Gonzalez hitting free agency in 2012 after Hoyer keeps him all season to make a run for the NL West goes way up, and thus the likelihood of getting him to replace Ortiz's LHH power without giving up any developed talent goes up proportionally.

Frankly, I'm stunned that the Marlins just gave up both main pieces of the Miguel Cabrera trade for three relief pitchers. Officially now a worse result than the Santana trade, or just a push?

[Savin Hillbilly]

(3) The likelihood of Gonzalez hitting free agency in 2012 after Hoyer keeps him all season to make a run for the NL West goes way up, and thus the likelihood of getting him to replace Ortiz's LHH power without giving up any developed talent goes up proportionally.

I'm not sure I see this. Giving up two effective bullpen arms for a high-upside 23-year-old who has struggled so far against major league pitching doesn't seem like a "let's go for it this year" move. It seems like a move that would go very well with an intention of shopping Gonzalez at the break for other young players who could combine with Maybin, Blanks, Latos etc. for a kick-ass team a couple of years down the road.

[SoxFanPJ]

Padres trade Mujica, Webb for Cameron Maybin

It seems to me that this affects the Sox in two ways:

(1) The likelihood of Ellsbury being a key piece in a Gonzalez deal goes way down, and thus the likelihood of having to give up Lowrie if we want Gonzalez goes way up (unless we can get Gonzalez for a package made up entirely of prospects).

(2) If we had any ideas of trading for a SD reliever, we can probably let go of them.

Re: (1) I don't think Ellsbury would have been the primary OF target for SD. Ryan Kalish makes a ton of sense for them. Not only is Kalish younger (23 vs. 27) he also has minimal service time versus Ellsbury who is entering his arbitration years. A strong enough arm to play in the corner OF spots, but also enough speed to cover CF. He is the perfect OF for their ballpark from a defensive perspective.
If the Sox were to make a deal for Gonzalez I think Kalish has to be in it for the Padres.

Re: (2) There is always Heath Bell who it makes sense for the Padres to try to trade. Hoyer is going to have to assemble a team again with the same general financial constraints. ~$40M. He has the following players arbitration eligible according to Cot's.

San Diego Padres (2010 Salary)
Mike Adams rhp 4.019 ($1M)
Heath Bell rhp 5.099 ($4M)
Chris Denorfia of 3+
Tony Gwynn cf 3.044
Scott Hairston of 5.102 ($2.45)
Chase Headley 3b-lf 2.123*
Ryan Ludwick of 5.109 ($5.45M)
Edward Mujica rhp 3.115
Tim Stauffer rhp 3.007

He already cleared the deck of Mujica with the trade. But Bell should get a big bump in arbitration, and Adams and Ludwick will be going up in cost as well. Gonzalez is only getting $5.5M but if he and Bell end up as seems likely taking up 25% or more of the teams budget, it makes some sense to cash in now and attempt to put pieces together around a younger core moving forward. Of course if Ludwick gets off to a hot start I could also see the team trying to deal him next season.

Edit: Criticism of Padres ownership removed based on Mabrowndog's post. I wonder if criticism should be directed at the Commissioner for allowing an ownership transfer that by its nature puts a team at a significant competitive disadvantage, but that is a matter for another thread.

Edited by SoxFanPJ, 14 November 2010 - 10:21 PM.

[bosockboy]

It appears Uggla is about to be moved this week. Thinking about it, a preemptive move for Uggla makes a lot of sense, because having him in hand can help with leverage in talks with both Beltre and Werth, as he could play either one (more likely LF though). He also is a perfect RHH DH compliment to Ortiz. Getting him for one year and then taking the two draft picks seems like a nice stopgap solution until a young OF is ready, and bolsters the DH position until Ortiz moves on.

Against RHP you could have an OF of Uggla/Ellsbury/Drew with Papi at DH, against LHP an OF of Cameron/Ellsbury/McDonald with Uggla at DH.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Uggla has had exactly 23 chances in the OF in his pro career, though, and none since '04. I don't think it's a great idea to acquire a guy with the intent of keeping him for just one season AND playing him in an unfamiliar position (and platooning him?). Seems like a recipe for disaster.

[yecul]

Agreed. In theory it's a reasonable idea to consider though his D is already pretty bad. In practice it brings a lot of risk to the table. Not just performance, but barring an extension they'd be asking him to move from 2B to either LF or 3B in his contract season. Ouch.

[bosockboy]

True enough...however the Sox have considered him before for LF I believe, and if roughly 1/3 of his AB's are at DH against lefties, that mitigates the defensive damage somewhat. Also a tremendous insurance policy against a Pedroia injury.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

True enough...however the Sox have considered him before for LF I believe, and if roughly 1/3 of his AB's are at DH against lefties, that mitigates the defensive damage somewhat. Also a tremendous insurance policy against a Pedroia injury.

You know, if they were to acquire him with the intention of using him as kind of a faux-super utility guy, limiting him to left field, DH and maybe a handful of games at third or second in emergency situations or day/night doubleheaders and such, I'd be kind of excited about the deal. I want no part of him as an every day starting third baseman, but the thought of him having a significant amount of starts in left field doesn't bother me so much and would allow Tito some flexibility to try and keep people fresh all season. And the idea of replacing Ortiz's paltry .222/.275/.324 line against left handed pitching with Uggla's .306/.409/.575 makes me a bit happy in the pants.

[SoxFanPJ]

10. Pablo Sandoval, INF, Giants — Stock dropped after a huge offensive falloff (.330 to .268), and the Giants have told him he won’t be a starter unless he loses significant weight. Could be a DH.

Cafardo Notes...

Sandoval is an interesting name if available in trade. If he can keep his weight anywhere in check he looks to me like a young Vlad Guerrero as a hitter. I don't know if he can be that good, but he is an awfully tempting hitter ( even with his lack of discipline) given his age and ability he has shown.

[kazuneko]

You know, if they were to acquire him with the intention of using him as kind of a faux-super utility guy, limiting him to left field, DH and maybe a handful of games at third or second in emergency situations or day/night doubleheaders and such, I'd be kind of excited about the deal. I want no part of him as an every day starting third baseman, but the thought of him having a significant amount of starts in left field doesn't bother me so much and would allow Tito some flexibility to try and keep people fresh all season. And the idea of replacing Ortiz's paltry .222/.275/.324 line against left handed pitching with Uggla's .306/.409/.575 makes me a bit happy in the pants.

As some other poster showed earlier (by overlaying his hit chart on Fenway) he is also a guy who has a chance to be a 40 HR guy with half his games at Fenway.
The wild card is his defense in LF. I've read in multiple places that he is seen as a guy who can handle the OF, though obviously the fact that he has never really been asked to do this makes this an unknown variable. If he could play a league-average LF and if the asking price is not that high (at least compared to other trade options) this would seem to be a pretty interesting direction to take.

Especially compared to Werth, Uggla seems quite a bit less of a risk. No need for a long-term commitment, and not much reason to think he is any worse of a hitter (Werth put up an .838 OPS away from a home park perfectly suited to his swing, meanwhile Uggla, put up a .928 OPS away from his team's cavernous home park) and Uggla is younger and has had the more injury-free career of the two.
In this scenario, Cameron becomes the RH CF/LF when Uggla DHs, possibly also getting some ABs relieving Drew in RF and Ellsbury in CF (and is around as a more-than-capable back-up just in case Ellsbury has any more DL visits). Uggla also can revert to 2b, and maybe even fill-in at 3b and potentially even 1b depending on who gets injured throughout the course of the year. In fact, having Uggla and Lowrie on the same roster, along with Cameron set-up as part-time player would leave you feeling real good about the ' chance of withstanding the issue that was the team's biggest problem in 2010: injuries.

Edited by kazuneko, 14 November 2010 - 04:10 PM.

[mabrowndog]

Its really sad how little ownership is willing to spend in San Diego. Great ballpark, but you got to put a winner on the field to consistently draw the fans here. Its a very fair weather community.

Willingness has nothing whatsoever to do with it. The financial situation there, thanks to the terms of the club purchase (which still isn't complete), the rancorous divorce of Jon Moores & Wife, a national recession that's still largely stagnant, and most importantly the Petco construction debt load, has left the Moorad partnership in a really tough spot. There's simply no money to spend. I posted on it earlier this year in this thread (see here and here).

[AZBlue]

I suspect that I am swimming against the tide of opinion, but I will be very happy if the Sox do not trade for Adrian Gonzalez. I think we will find that Rizzo will be a solid ML first baseman in two years, near the same level as Gonzalez in three years and under control at a much lower price.

[nvalvo]

I suspect that I am swimming against the tide of opinion, but I will be very happy if the Sox do not trade for Adrian Gonzalez. I think we will find that Rizzo will be a solid ML first baseman in two years, near the same level as Gonzalez in three years and under control at a much lower price.

I'm willing to entertain the idea.

When Gonzo was 20, he also played in Portland, at the time a Marlins affiliate.

20 y/o Gonzo, 138 Games in AA: .266/.344/.437/.781; 54BB/112SO
20 y/o Rizzo, 107 Games in AA: .263/.334/.481/.815; 45BB/100SO

Those are comparable lines. Rizzo has put up noticeably better SLG, similar AVG and OBP, and similar SO/BB numbers.

But Gonzalez' power didn't really show up until his age 22 and 23 seasons, when he simultaneously decreased his strikeouts. It looks to me like the argument that Rizzo will be comparable to Gonzo depends on projecting him to make a similarly pronounced jump. It's possible, but what do you see that makes you think it will happen, AZBlue?

edited: grammar.

Edited by nvalvo, 14 November 2010 - 07:38 PM.

[RedOctober3829]

Official from another team says #Marlins working hard to sign C John Buck

Ed Price Twitter

[yecul]

Reports indicate that Marlins are close to a 3-year deal for Buck. Tek it is!

[Yaz4Ever]

Forget about Uggla. He's been traded to the Braves for Omar Infante and reliever Mike Dunn. Seems like an absolute steal for the Braves, imho.

[absintheofmalaise]

details

on the Uggla trade.

Go in the Uggla thread in MLB and/or the Braves thread. This one is for Sox type information. Thanks.

[yecul]

One of the more popular FA names for the pen might be signing elsewhere:

http://msn.foxsports...ing-deal-111710

Benoit to Tigers is close?

[mabrowndog]

Nice piece by WEEI's Alex Speier summarizing all the Sox-centric activities and rumors from the GM meetings.

[MHead81]

Per Jon Heyman's Twitter:

#twins, #redsox among teams showing interest in nishioka, who won gold glove at 2B and can play SS.

http://twitter.com/S...013209333366784

But Peter Abraham disagrees per his Twitter:

The #RedSox are not interested in any of the notable Japanese players, either free agents or players being posted.

http://twitter.com/P...014044582871041

Not putting much stock in this but I figured I might as well post it just in case.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Per Jon Heyman's Twitter:

http://twitter.com/S...013209333366784

But Peter Abraham disagrees per his Twitter:

http://twitter.com/P...014044582871041

Not putting much stock in this but I figured I might as well post it just in case.

Well, with four SS on the 40-man, I would hope not. Seriously, SS and LHH OF are the only two positions the Sox have a logjam.

Even if he's worth it I can't imagine Theo getting into the bidding for Nishioka.

[MHead81]

Well, with four SS on the 40-man, I would hope not. Seriously, SS and LHH OF are the only two positions the Sox have a logjam.

Even if he's worth it I can't imagine Theo getting into the bidding for Nishioka.

Trust me, I'm with you. I thought the same thing before posting it and I only did post it due to the outside chance that it could mean someone is being used in a major deal. I just wish Cafardo's name was attached so I could've avoided it all together.

[Freddy Linn]

Enrique Rojas says A's offered Beltre 5 years, $64M.

[EastCoasterOutWest]

fwiw

“I think that we are going to sign, I won’t promise, but we’re going to sign a significant free agent. We are going to make a trade to improve ourselves,” Werner said. “I want to assure everybody that there is no bridge year here this year. [In] 2011, we’re committed to win.”

http://www.boston.co...r_blows_up.html

[Yaz4Ever]

fwiw



http://www.boston.co...r_blows_up.html

That sounds good to me. I have no idea who the significant free agent would be beyond Beltre (3/$48M??) as I can't imagine we'd get Lee, but I'm hoping the trade is something significant like Upton or Adrian Gonzalez. With Theo, however, one never knows what he has cooking. I could easily be blindsided on both counts.

[MHead81]

fwiw
http://www.boston.co...r_blows_up.html

Assuming he wasn't just referring to the Red Sox' own free agents, (and assuming it actually happens,) I just can't see anyone who is a "significant free agent" being anyone other than Jayson Werth. I'm not saying it's what I would or wouldn't do, and maybe I would if I was able to see all the other realistic options and alternatives, but I really can't come up with a team who is a better fit that can also afford him other than NYY. Maybe Detroit if their other options fall through. LAAA and Crawford seems too perfect not to happen. Maybe Washington.

In 2010, Werth's P/PA was 4.37, which I'm almost certain led the league but I can't find anything on FanGraphs that ranks that-- feel free to say so if anyone knows how to find it. His OF defense is solid, he's a great baserunner, and I've said it a million times by now but maybe it is just as simple as putting him in left, putting Ellsbury in CF and platooning Drew and Cameron in RF. Maybe it's one of those situations where the most simple solutions is the solution. Then in 2012 we go with Werth / Ellsbury / Kalish.

Edit: type-o

Edited by MHead81, 17 November 2010 - 08:34 PM.

[BoSox Rule]

Werth's P/PA in 2010 was 4.37 P/PA, which I'm almost certain led the league but I can't find anything on FanGraphs that ranks that-- feel free to say so if anyone knows how to find it.

http://espn.go.com/m...nded/order/true

1. Gardner 4.61
2. Barton 4.40
3. Werth 4.37
4. Ortiz 4.37
5. Reynolds 4.30

Edited by BoSox Rule, 17 November 2010 - 08:34 PM.

[MHead81]

http://espn.go.com/m...nded/order/true

1. Gardner 4.61
2. Barton 4.40
3. Werth 4.37
4. Ortiz 4.37
5. Reynolds 4.30

Thanks, so he did lead the National League in P/PA. Side note, his 2009 P/PA was 4.51.

[mabrowndog]

With Kevin Towers' apparent asking price for Upton approaching Adrian Gonzalez levels, and with Boras still setting the bar for Werth at $100M, I wonder if Theo's kicking the tires on Josh Willingham. The Nats are reportedly unlikely to extend him, making him obvious trade bait.

[bosockboy]

With Kevin Towers' apparent asking price for Upton approaching Adrian Gonzalez levels, and with Boras still setting the bar for Werth at $100M, I wonder if Theo's kicking the tires on Josh Willingham. The Nats are reportedly unlikely to extend him, making him obvious trade bait.

Ultimately I think he's the best solution, depending on what the Nats asking price is. He's not much worse than Werth but a ton cheaper. Great DH platoon for Ortiz also.

[Clears Cleaver]

Zach duke was just released by Pittsburgh. could he be the 6th/7th starter?

http://espn.go.com/m...s?playerId=6219

he's been pretty bad three of the past four years...peripherals suck. NM

[The Boomer]

Zach duke was just released by Pittsburgh. could he be the 6th/7th starter?

http://espn.go.com/m...s?playerId=6219

he's been pretty bad three of the past four years...peripherals suck. NM

Andy LaRoche got released by them too and probably could be signed to a minor league deal. He has the kind of plate discipline the Sox like although he has never been able to adjust consistently in the majors.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Andy LaRoche got released by them too and probably could be signed to a minor league deal. He has the kind of plate discipline the Sox like although he has never been able to adjust consistently in the majors.

His BB rate was good early on but has gone down every year he's been in the majors (2010: 7.0%). His BABIPs are just hideous (career .252, 2010 .234), and the batted ball numbers suggest that's probably not all bad luck. He had a high GB rate (50.2%) last year, and a respectably high IFH% (9.7%). How the hell do you hit a high percentage of grounders, beat out a good percentage of them for base hits, and finish the year with a BABIP of .234, for the luvva Pete? The logical answer is that very few of the grounders were hit hard enough to get through the infield. Speaking of which, guess who was 10th out of 346 players with >200 PA in IFFB/FB? Yup, our boy Andy. And then there's the 6.0 HR/FB. He's not making quality contact, to put it mildly.

He seems like a classic AAAA player. His minor league numbers are outstanding, and seem to bear no relation at all to what he's done in the bigs (for instance, he has a minor league ISO of .222; in the majors it's .113).

[SumnerH]

He seems like a classic AAAA player. His minor league numbers are outstanding, and seem to bear no relation at all to what he's done in the bigs (for instance, he has a minor league ISO of .222; in the majors it's .113).

Every study I've seen, going back at least to James' 1987 Abstract, shows no evidence that AAAA players exist in the sense that you mean here.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Every study I've seen, going back at least to James' 1987 Abstract, shows no evidence that AAAA players exist in the sense that you mean here.

You mean, there's no such thing as a player who looks like an elite talent all the way through the minors and then can't make that talent stick at the major league level?

[SumnerH]

You mean, there's no such thing as a player who looks like an elite talent all the way through the minors and then can't make that talent stick at the major league level?

There are lots of players who are hot prospects all the way through but fail to stick at the major league level. Injuries, SSS minor league stats that overestimate their true talent level, and plenty of other factors can cause that.

What there seems to be no evidence for is players who have true ml talent that doesn't convey to the ML level--the "AAAA" hitter who will consistently post a 1.000 OPS in AAA but can't be a successful major league hitter. All the evidence seems to suggest that MLEs work; if you have a player where they're established at a high level over a large sample (e.g. LaRoche's 1200+ plate appearances of .900 OPS at AA/AAA), then it's either a sample size issue or there's a real regression in ability (due to injury or something) that would also mean they'll suck if they go back to AA or AAA.

[Super Nomario]

There are lots of players who are hot prospects all the way through but fail to stick at the major league level. Injuries, SSS minor league stats that overestimate their true talent level, and plenty of other factors can cause that.

What there seems to be no evidence for is players who have true ml talent that doesn't convey to the ML level--the "AAAA" hitter who will consistently post a 1.000 OPS in AAA but can't be a successful major league hitter. All the evidence seems to suggest that MLEs work; if you have a player where they're established at a high level over a large sample (e.g. LaRoche's 1200+ plate appearances of .900 OPS at AA/AAA), then it's either a sample size issue or there's a real regression in ability (due to injury or something) that would also mean they'll suck if they go back to AA or AAA.

The other reason that the "AAAA player" myth came about was a lack of understanding of park factors. Billy Ashley slugging .701 in 1994 looks a lot less impressive when you consider how inflated the PCL in general and Albuquerque in particular was then.

[Savin Hillbilly]

What there seems to be no evidence for is players who have true ml talent that doesn't convey to the ML level--the "AAAA" hitter who will consistently post a 1.000 OPS in AAA but can't be a successful major league hitter. All the evidence seems to suggest that MLEs work; if you have a player where they're established at a high level over a large sample (e.g. LaRoche's 1200+ plate appearances of .900 OPS at AA/AAA), then it's either a sample size issue or there's a real regression in ability (due to injury or something) that would also mean they'll suck if they go back to AA or AAA.

Good point, at least in LaRoche's case. I had forgotten about his thumb injury in spring '08. When you look at his record with that in mind, it's clear that his power departed at that point and never returned.

[rundugrun]

AJ Pierzynski was not offered arbitration... He's soon to be 34 years old, consistently exceeds a .700 OPS and seems to be at best average defensively. Can he be signed to a 2 year deal?

http://espn.go.com/b...ie-putz-not-a-j

added link.

Edited by rundugrun, 23 November 2010 - 05:10 PM.

[Yaz4Ever]

AJ Pierzynski was not offered arbitration... He's soon to be 34 years old, consistently exceeds a .700 OPS and seems to be at best average defensively. Can he be signed to a 2 year deal?

Isn't he also considered (universally) to be a world-class douchenozzle? I'd have to think there are better alternatives out there than someone who won't get along with his teammates.

Yes, I do subscribe to the belief that chemistry, although not quantifiable, is important.

[rundugrun]

I thought it went without saying that AJ is considered a jerk by those on opposing teams. He seems to be well-liked by his own teammates, though.

[Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat]

Isn't he also considered (universally) to be a world-class douchenozzle? I'd have to think there are better alternatives out there than someone who won't get along with his teammates.

Yes, I do subscribe to the belief that chemistry, although not quantifiable, is important.

His reputation is that he does get along with his teammates. Opponents hate him, but not teammates.

[Lars The Wanderer]

His reputation is that he does get along with his teammates. Opponents hate him, but not teammates.

This really wasn't the case in San Francisco. He was pretty universally despised.

[Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat]

This really wasn't the case in San Francisco. He was pretty universally despised.

I do remember that. But I think he's grown up a bit, and fit well with the White Sox.

[TheYellowDart5]

AJ Pierzynski was not offered arbitration... He's soon to be 34 years old, consistently exceeds a .700 OPS and seems to be at best average defensively. Can he be signed to a 2 year deal?

http://espn.go.com/b...ie-putz-not-a-j

added link.

A.J. Pierzynski managed a .300 OBP, 83 OPS+ and a paltry .118 ISO last season, which even for a catcher is pretty bad. Not to mention that he has a well-established reputation of being a total fuckface. He'd be lucky to sniff a one-year deal, much less two, and I hope that Boston's FO steers far clear of him.

[EastCoasterOutWest]

Sox offer arbitration to Beltre, Martinez, and Lopez:

The Red Sox have offered salary arbitration to free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre, catcher Victor Martinez and infielder Felipe Lopez.

Bill Hall, Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek were not offered.

http://www.boston.co...ffer_arbit.html