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[JMDurron]

Edited 1989 Part II - Forgot Steve Crawford

[JMDurron]

The 1990 preseason - offseason roster moves and contracts.

Yet another roster crunch occurs, this time in the OF. The current setup is Gwynn in LF, Burks in CF, Dawson in RF, Evans at DH, and Greenwell at 1B. David Justice has now arrived and is ready for a significant number of ABs. It would appear that I made a mistake in how I dealt with the contracts of Evans and/or Dawson. Dawson's runs through 1992, and Evans is signed through his career end in 1991. Dawson, Burks, Greenwell, and Gwynn played full time in 1990. Evans only played in 123 games due to injury. It appears that my choices are to dump Dawson prematurely, or stick Justice on the bench as the 4 OF, and possibly platoon DH/RF with Evans/Dawson.

Unfortunately, one complicating factor on the Dawson front is that one of the other cornerstones of the late 70s-entire 1980s dynasty is now gone. Ozzie Smith declined to re-sign with me, and it wasn't a matter of money. Even though he valued stability, he wanted to see what greener pastures might bring him. I offer him arb and he declines. Smith signs with the San Diego Padres. This gives me the Padres' 1st round draft pick, and a supplemental 1st round compensation pick, but leaves me without a SS. I am left with no choice but to put Jody Reed at SS, and live with his great bat for the position, but mediocre defense.

So the team just lost the face of the franchise. The 4 "faces" of 1977-1989 were Fisk, Evans, Smith, and Dawson. Smith is gone. Fisk, Evans, and Dawson are obviously going to be gone soon, even the casual fans realize this. But can I get away with shipping one of them out in the same offseason when I have lost Smith? I have resolved to keep Evans through to the bitter end, because he and the fans deserve a goodbye to a legend and 100% automatic HOFer (rings, baby!). Fisk still plays the position fairly well, managing the pitching staff of 11 million egos and bringing a sweet bat to the C position, although Daulton is now ready to break out. The plan all along was to have Fisk hand the starting duties over to Daulton in 1990, with Fisk getting lots of backup C and some DH time. Fisk and Evans are both signed to team-friendly deals through 1991. This means I take a look at moving Dawson. I will have to evaluate the rest of the roster before making a move, though.

Between Daulton/Fisk and Eck/Smith, there is no need for Jeff Reardon, so I do not sign him. Lee Smith will not be traded for Tom Brunansky with this OF. This means that the Red Sox do not lose their 1st round draft pick as compensation for the Pena signing. Quintana arrives to backup 1B. Tim Naehring is called up early to be the backup 2B/SS. I mostly pray for Boggs' health, because the occasional Quintana appearances here are NOT pretty. We've discussed the OF.

For the starting rotation, things are quite straightforward. Clemens-Saberhagen-Cone-Maddux-Tudor. Tom Gordon as the long man/6th starter. No needs here.

In the bullpen, Eckersley remains and is signed/extended through the 1992 season. Smith and Eck somehow get along famously (thank you, Joe Morgan), and Smith is signed through 1993. Tom Gordon is the long man, and starts to be groomed for occasional short relief. Jeff Gray is signed off the waiver wire. Dennis Lamp, Wes Gardner, and Steve Crawford are not re-signed. Nor is Greg Harris, with Tom Bolton being called back up to help out in the bullpen as the LHR. Dana Kiecker is also called up for bullpen duty.

So, I was initially iffy on removing Dawson from the lineup, but between the emergence of David Justice, and the need to give an aging Fisk every AB at DH that Evans can't take, I think that is what has to be done. Fortunately, I have an area of the roster that I can upgrade without losing any depth. The bullpen is top-heavy, with 2 great closers, a good long man, and various decent guys who can all ride the Pawtucket shuttle in Bolton, Kiecker, and Jeff Gray. I will trade future HOFer (seems less marginal with all those Fenway 2Bs and HRs, plus DA RINGS!, even though he still hates walks with a burning passion) Andre Dawson for a bulpen arm.

So, who needs a bullpen arm, and has a crappy RF or DH? Dawson's defense has declined, but just his range. His knees are essentially fine and his arm remains, plus his bat plays anywhere. I am giving up 1 great (1990) and 2 good (91, 92) seasons of a fantastic corner OF, and all I want is a reliever, but I can't bring another closer in without having an ego clash with Eck/Smith. Meet the 1990 Houston Astros. Glenn Wilson (83) and Eric Anthony (75) got most of their RF time in 1990. They have 4 excellent relievers, and one of them is old (37) and not even the closer. This was almost too easy.

I trade Andre Dawson to the Houston Astros for Larry Andersen. A horrible trade on paper, but a fantastic trade for my particular roster needs, and for the future. The fans and media are livid with me, but the fanbase is somewhat subdued by the fact that I almost always have been right. The way the 1989 season ended does not help matters.

Gwynn is the LF, Burks the CF, Justice the RF, and Evans the DH with Fisk getting plenty of PAs there. Greenwell remains at 1B. Ray Lankford backs up all 3 OF positions in his first appearance on the roster.

The 1990 season, including production numbers, the narrative, and my tribute to the defining highlight video of my childhood are yet to come.

EDIT - Jeff Harris = Greg Harris

Edited by JMDurron, 29 January 2011 - 11:57 PM.

[JMDurron]

1990 Position Players:

C - Darren Daulton over Tony Pena (84 -> 117). Fisk (134) backs up and catches Maddux, who refuses to pitch to Daulton.
1B - Mike Greenwell over Carlos Quintana (103 -> 119). Quintana backs up.
2B - Ryne Sandberg over Jody Reed (109 -> 140). Naehring (104) backs up.
SS - Jody Reed over Luis Rivera (70 -> 109). Naehring backs up.
3B - Wade Boggs (121). Quintana backs up in extreme emergencies only.
LF - Tony Gwynn over Mike Greenwell (119 -> 112). Lankford (121) backs up.
CF - Ellis Burks (127). Lankford backs up.
RF - David Justice over Tom Brunansky (113 -> 143). Lankford backs up.
DH - Dwight Evans (103). Fisk gets every DH start possible as backup.

Historically, in 1990, Daulton played in 143 games, Fisk played in 137 games, and Evans played in 123 games. Taking the 324 starts between C and DH, here's how things play out. Daulton loses 1/5 of his starts due to Maddux being picky about wanting Fisk. That gives him 115 starts at C. That gives Fisk 47. Evans gets 10 extra "achy back" days off, as he is gimpy and Fisk is unnaturally healthy at age 42 with reduced playing time. That gives Evans 113 games, which means 49 more games for Fisk. Daulton plays in 115 games, Evans plays in 113 games, and Fisk gets 96 starts, plus pinch hitting duties when one of the backups started on a day where the game is close and late. Fisk was the most historically productive out of the 3, but I think it's unrealistic to give the most games to the oldest player on the team, who is also a catcher.

Greenwell, Sandberg, Reed, Boggs, and Burks all play over 150 games. Lankford gets most of his time in relief of Gwynn and Justice, who play in 141 and 127 games, respectively.

The rotation:

Maddux (237/119)
Clemens (228.1/213)
Cone (211.2/117)
Tudor (146.1/159)
Saberhagen (135/118)

Tom Gordon (195.1/103) does yeoman work in picking up innings for the injured Saberhagen (July-end of season) and Tudor (back and forth in Aug-Oct, left off playoff roster). Dana Kiecker (152/104) gets far fewer starts and some bullpen innings when both Tudor and Saberhagen are gone in August and September.

The bullpen:

Dennis Eckersley (73.1/610)
Lee Smith (83/189)
Larry Andersen (95.2/215)
Jeff Gray (50.2/93) - called up in June
Tom Gordon (195.1/103) - in bullpen until July, roughly as effective in both roles
Tom Bolton (119.2/122) - gets way fewer innings, spends entire season in bullpen except for maybe a doubleheader in Aug-Sep.
Dana Kiecker (152/104) - in bullpen until August, slightly better in bullpen than in rotation

The narrative remains - coming soon!

[JMDurron]

NOTE ** Please read everything not surrounded by *s in Curt Gowdy's voice ** END OF LINE

The 1990 Red Sox season was dedicated to Tony Conigliaro, the kid from Revere, who grew up to be a New England Hero. *remainder of tribute snipped for readability*

The 1990 Red Sox season ended at *SPOILERED for later*

*MONTAGE* - Note that all montages are done with awesome late-80s, early 90s montage instrumental/synthesized music.

The Red Sox went to Spring Training looking for their 7th straight division title. But having the talent isn't always enough. *Jody Reed talks chemistry, conveniently avoids mentioning that David Cone hates Greg Maddux, Maddux avoids Daulton like the plague, and that Roger Clemens is a borderline sociopath*

I have no doubts. I tell the interviewer that in the Eastern division, if I'm a writer I'm picking us as the club to beat. We're the defending champions in this division, we have good balance and relatively few injuries to worry about. Most baseball experts agree. There are questions about Greenwell's ability to play 1B, but no questions about the strength of the lineup.

So if the Red Sox were going to be champions in 1990, they would have to do it by Kicking Some Ass.

*The particular game highlights are obviously completely smashed here, no point in showing them*

Mrs Giamatti, widow of former commishioner Bart Giamatti, throws out the first pitch on Opening Day, a tender tribute to her husband, a lifelong Red Sox fan.

The Red Sox started by winning 3 of 4, and nobody got started faster than Darren Daulton. *DAULTON MONTAGE*

*More game highlights*

By early May, it was clear that Carlton Fisk had lost none of his skill at the plate, either hitting at it or catching behind it.

*FISK MONTAGE*

Even with Fisk's exploits, the Red Sox started slowly, up one day, then down the next. There were bright spots through all of this, and one of them was veteran John Tudor's return from a lost 1989 season.

*TUDOR MONTAGE*

And then came the crash. The Sox hit a rough spot. The offense simply did not score runs. By the end of May, the Sox lost 6 of 9, and the fell into 2nd place.

*Game highlights*

Suddenly, the Red Sox were off on a roll.

*Game highlights*

June was full of great battles.

*Game highlights*

But you couldn't win a division without defense, and there was the rub. *Highlights of Dawson's sad departure via trade* Dawson's loss might have been a bigger blow to Boston's lineup, but Joe Morgan had gone to the bench and found an able replacement in rookie David Justice.

*JUSTICE MONTAGE*

The Red Sox could put their defensive worries to rest, at least for now.

*Highlights of the Red Sox curb stomping the Blue Jays*

*Interview with generic quotes from Greg Maddux*

*Other game highlights, including a pitching duel between Nolan Ryan and David Cone won by a Ryne Sandberg walkoff HR*

It was almost too good to be true. They stumbled into the All Star break, and stumbled right out, playing 500 ball. Even worse, Bret Saberhagen was injured, and his season was finished. Mike Greenwell's batting woes typified the frustrations of the team.

*Talk about Greenwell's bad ankle, then highlights of Greenwell hitting better in the 2nd half, let's not talk about his 1B defense, please*

*Game highlights*

*There is no standings graph*

There was one constant bright spot, and that was pitching.

*PITCHING MONTAGE*

*WOW!*
*WOW!*
*WOW!*
*WOW!*
*Clemens still busts out the slide in Toronto*
*WOW!*

The Red Sox got back on track, and streaked into August.

*Game highlights*

*Highlight of Tony Gwynn driving in 5 runs against the A's in Oakland, leading to GWYNN MONTAGE*

*More game highlights, including 3 straight shutouts of the Blue Jays by Gordon, Clemens, and Maddux*

*Highlights of Burks in Cleveland, leading to the One Sweet Centerfielder BURKS MONTAGE*

*Highlights of Clemens in Cleveland*

*CLEMENS MONTAGE WITH TIE FIGHTER SOUND EFFECT* - I'm not kidding, watch the video again if you have it.

*Highlights of raping the Yankees*

The winning streak didn't last. On Sep 4, Roger Clemens, fresh from a 6-0 August, had an uncharacteristic bad outing against the A's, and left with inflammation in his pitching shoulder. The Red Sox struggled, losing 11 of 20.

*Game highlights, including a now-meaningless late Sep series against the Blue Jays*

The Red Sox clinched the AL East by winning the 1st game against the Blue Jays behind the 2 HRs from Ryne Sandberg.

*Highlights of division title celebration, followed by SANDBERG MONTAGE*

The Red Sox went into the ALCS looking for revenge for the previous year. The A's came in with a great bullpen and good lineup, but their starters just couldn't handle the Red Sox lineup, and the Sox won in 5 games.

*Highlights of Sox celebrating in Oakland*

The Reds were to be the Red Sox's challengers for the 1990 World Series title. Jose Rijo outlasted Roger Clemens in game 1, but the Red Sox were able to get to the Reds' nasty boys in the 9th, winning Game 1. Eckersley blew a save in Game 2, and the series returned to Fenway at 1-1. Tom Browning was no match for David Cone in Game 3, who got some defensive help from David Justice to stop a 5th inning rally. Mike Greenwell's 3 fielding errors dug Tom Gordon into a hole in Game 4, but he dug him right back out with a 3-run HR off of Rob Dibble in the 9th inning, on a first pitch fastball. Lee Smith closed the door, and the Red Sox were on the verge of their 13th World Championship. Ellis Burks and Wade Boggs put on a show in Game 5, and Roger Clemens went 9 innings for the complete game win, and another Red Sox title.

*ROLL CREDITS*

I thought that Greenwell in particular might excel against the power pitching of the nasty boys, where the older, savvier hitters like Gwynn, Fisk, and Evans might have been simply overpowered a bit. Back with the draft and some thread thoughts in a bit.

EDIT - Added programming note at the top.

Edited by JMDurron, 05 November 2010 - 03:31 PM.

[JMDurron]

The 1990 Red Sox had no 1st round draft pick due to the Tony Pena signing. I did not sign him, so I have that draft pick. I also lost Ozzie Smith to the Padres, so I gain the 19th overall pick in the 1st round (Ozzie Smith trumps Craig Lefferts, sorry Giants), and a supplemental 1st round pick.

With the 19th overall pick, one spot ahead of the Baltimore Orioles, I select Mike Mussina. Mussina appears on the roster in 1991, and becomes a regular in 1992. Dennis and Callahan are certain to get along with him.

With my late 1st round pick, I select Ray Durham. Durham arrives in 1995 and is an immediate regular.

With my supplemental 1st round pick, I think about selecting Troy Percival, but decided that I can't pass up on starting pitching in favor of relief. Relief is easy enough to find if I have to. Welcome to the Red Sox, Andy Pettitte. Pettitte will arrive and be a regular in 1995.

Edited by JMDurron, 05 November 2010 - 01:48 PM.

[JMDurron]

So, 1990, like 1984, was one of my "excited to get to do that one" benchmarks. I don't see another obvious benchmark going forward, so I ask the question - is anyone still reading this, or am I just amusing myself? I'll still enjoy going forward with it, I'm sure, but some alternative amusements (like Baseball Mogul, how do I not own this game?!?) are available, and the effort level is growing as I go deeper into this. I apologize if this comes off as attention whoring, but I'm honestly curious if anyone is still interested in me continuing with this.

[SirPsychoSquints]

So, 1990, like 1984, was one of my "excited to get to do that one" benchmarks. I don't see another obvious benchmark going forward, so I ask the question - is anyone still reading this, or am I just amusing myself? I'll still enjoy going forward with it, I'm sure, but some alternative amusements (like Baseball Mogul, how do I not own this game?!?) are available, and the effort level is growing as I go deeper into this. I apologize if this comes off as attention whoring, but I'm honestly curious if anyone is still interested in me continuing with this.

I'm reading every one the second you post it. Please continue. Thanks for the work!

[hartwhalers55]

I'm reading every one the second you post it. Please continue. Thanks for the work!

I second this. I am a bit under the weather and I'm thinking my plan for much of the weekend is to buy Baseball Mogul and perform this exact exercise. I have really enjoyed reading these!

[JMDurron]

I second this. I am a bit under the weather and I'm thinking my plan for much of the weekend is to buy Baseball Mogul and perform this exact exercise. I have really enjoyed reading these!

Thanks for the feedback, both of you. If it were not for this thread and the Auburn game, I would most likely be doing the same thing via baseball Mogul (although I might start at the beginning). I would be sure to take a glance at Sean Berry's "Rules of the Game" thread to make sure you are aware of the difference between this wonderful foray into the realm of a fan's intellectual masturbation exercise and what you can do with Baseball Mogul. You probably won't get Andre Dawson in the 1975 draft, for example.

One note - I am starting to get far enough into this that I can see some discrepancies between when I have players running out of their 6 years of team control, and when they actually hit their 6th year in the real world. This discrepancy is due to my using the player's first appearance on a MLB roster (via baseball-reference, where most of my data comes from) as year 1, and counting to 6 from there. I cannot account for how long a player stays on a particular roster in a given season vs their actual playing time, nor can I calculate the potential super-2 status of my guys on my roster. I am sticking with my simplified "count to 6" principle because it is all that I can reasonably do without this grinding to a halt, because I have spent the better part of a decade and a half of extending/ending contracts on that idea, and because I have already set the precedent. So even if I can see that a player was clearly under control for an "extra" year for some reason, or for one less year compared to my count, I am ignoring that and going with my current system.

I'm trying to keep up with my own assumptions and distortions as I go, so if any of you folks who are reading this catch something that I have missed, or have a question, feel free to ask. There's a decent chance I haven't thought of it, and better to ask me early than late. Ditto with a contract/trade I might have overlooked, particularly if it's within the past year, so I can reasonably go back and fix it. If it's more than 2 years in the past, please still mention it, but expect the player in question to get Sutcliffed, or possibly even Munsoned/Lidled.

1991 offseason, coming up next.

[JMDurron]

Before 1991, I've made a couple of cosmetic changes to 1990. Named the narrator and fixed hitting -> defense after the Justice montage.

[JMDurron]

Quick note - I honestly hadn't realized that Pettitte was such a late-round pick. I had assumed that the Yankees core of Jeter-Posada (another late-rounder in 1990, but I'd like to avoid the possible catching defense issues, Maddux is annoying enough already about Daulton)-Pettitte-Rivera would either be signed internationally (not going there outside of historical signings, with one very handy exception in a few years), or drafted early enough that I would not have a shot at them. I was actually looking forward to an epic struggle for the AL East with the Yankees Dynasty, but that strikes me as somewhat less likely now. We shall see. Either way, at least the AL East will stop being crap outside of my team soon, once the Blue Jays get their act together.

So, onto the 1991 offseason moves. A few positions are basically unchanged. Darren Daulton is the starter, with Carlton Fisk backing up in his sunset season, at age 43. Sandberg remains at 2B. Boggs remains at 3B. I cast my eyes around for Jody Reed alternatives at SS, as his bat has been fine, but the defense leaves a little to be desired. He's a bit Lowrieish.

Gwynn remains in LF, Burks in CF, and David Justice in RF. Ray Lankford is also ready to be a regular OF, so here we go again. Dwight Evans remains at DH in his final, painful sunset season. The DH situation is all kinds of interesting, because I want to get Lankford ABs, I have no interest in dumping any of my current OFers, and I already have a combination of Evans and Fisk taking many of the DH starts. So there are potential changes/juggling to do with DH and the OF.

There is one position of certain change. Mike Greenwell first made the roster in 1985, so 1990 was his 6th season. A season in which he shocked both myself and the baseball world by winning the World Series MVP by feasting on the fastballs of the Dirty Boys from Cincy. I do not extend him. I do not attempt to re-sign him. I offer him arbitration, he declines, and he becomes a free agent. He is signed by the Detroit Tigers to be their LF/DH, mostly DHing over Pete Incaviglia. This is a good move for them, but an even better one for me. Mike Greenwell trumps Rob Deer based on 1989-1990 production, so I get Detroit's 1st round pick instead of the Brewers. Fare thee well, Gator.

This leaves a vacancy at 1B. Fans and the local media are shocked once again, but the more informed among them are way, WAY past the point of giving me the benefit of the doubt, and a few very select (let's call them SPECIAL) individuals understand where I am going with this.



Yeah, I'm ok with my 1B setup here.

This leaves my DH/OF situation, particularly with regards to Ray Lankford. Fortunately, I know that injuries are going to help me out, and a 2nd year player like Lankford doesn't have the clout or inclination to screw up the clubhouse by complaining about playing time before the season plays out.

Historically, Darren Daulton has an ineffective, injury-plagued 1991 season, playing only 89 games and putting up a 196/297/365 line, or an OPS+ of 87. That number's not bad for a C, and he was still better than anyone else the 91 Phillies had, but that's poor production for me, and I have both Carlton Fisk and a need to free up every AB I can find for the sake of Ray Lankford's development. That's right, Fisk is my Mike Lowell, and Daulton is Youkilis in this scenario, except I know about it beforehand and just make Fisk my primary starter. The difference is that Fisk hits better than Daulton did in 1991, and played in 134 games. A nice walk into the sunset for, arguably, the most significant catcher in baseball history, when one factors in his production and the fact that he works out his arm in the offseason by raising his hands while wearing his World Series rings. Both hands, because he needs them. I have no idea what Daulton's issue was in 1991, but I'm calling it something that happens in Spring Training, so Fisk being named the starter causes no waves. Greg Maddux smirks.

So, that leaves OF/DH. Normally, I don't count the games played for my position players before the full-season narrative post, but this matters for preseason roster construction, as I want to get Lankford as close to his historical number of 151 games in 1991 as possible, so that he can develop into the player that he ultimately became in real life. The smaller the difference, the less likely it is that I screw something up in his personal timeline. Lankford was a CF, so I assume that he can play anywhere, even if the wall in LF might give him fits. Tony Gwynn played 134 games in 1991, so that's 28 games for Lankford. Ellis Burks played 130, so that's 32 more for Lankford. David Justice only plays 109 games in 1991, so that's another 53 games, depending on how many of those missed games are due to injuries that I cannot control the timing of. Best case scenario, I already have 113 games for Lankford. Dwight Evans only plays in 101 games in 1991, with his back killing him. There's another 61 games, putting Lankford over the 151 game target, so I can breathe easy and not have to panic if two of my OFers and/or DH miss the same game. Mission Accomplished!

Mo Vaughn is called up some his cup of coffee, backing up 1B and DH when Lankford is already elsewhere in the lineup. Scott Cooper gets his cup as well, finally giving me an actual backup 3B.

Unfortunately, between Bagwell's awesomeness and Vaughn's need for some developmental ABs, there is no room for Carlos Quintana. There's also no real need at any position that I can trade a non-slugging 1B for, so I release him. His best season in the majors happens with some other team.

I sign Mike Brumley as an emergency backup MIF for Tim Naehring's inevitable injury. Hey, I can't have good depth everywhere, SS is a black hole for this team right now. Realism!

For the starters, John Tudor retires, after a great 12-year career in a Red Sox uniform. I honestly had no idea that he was as good a pitcher as he was. Clemens, Saberhagen, Maddux, and Cone remain. Cone still has no interest in any kind of extension, unfortunately. Tom Gordon is pressed into SP duty full-time for the season, since even as a swing man in historical 1991, he threw more, higher-quality innings than every single non-Clemens starter on the real 1991 Red Sox. Holy crap that real rotation was rancid.

On a related note, I do not sign Matt Young or Danny Darwin.

In the bullpen, I have also only lost one pitcher from the 1990 crew, as Larry Andersen departs. He signs with San Diego, and I get another compensation draft pick.

This leaves me with Eckersley, Lee Smith, Jeff Gray, Tom Bolton, and Dana Kiecker. Bolton and Kiecker are both destined to suck in 1991, so I mirror history by signing Tony Fossas to a 2-year deal on the cheap. I also sign Joe Hesketh to be the new long man/6th starter. Bolton and Kiecker are banished to emergency duty only.

Next up, the 1991 season and draft.

[JMDurron]

Forgot one non-transaction. I do not sign Jack Clark.

1991 Position Players:

C - Carlton Fisk (97) over Tony Pena (66). Darren Daulton (87) backs up.
1B - Jeff Bagwell (139) over Carlos Quintana (114). Mo Vaughn (93) backs up.
2B - Ryne Sandberg over Jody Reed (99 -> 138). Naehring (-10), then Brumley (45) backing up.
SS - Jody Reed over Luis Rivera (90 -> 99). Naehring/Brumley backing up.
3B - Wade Boggs (140). Scott Cooper (215) backs up.
LF - Tony Gwynn over Mike Greenwell (108 -> 118). Ray Lankford (94) backs up.
CF - Ellis Burks (98). Lankford backs up.
RF - David Justice over Tom Brunansky (87 -> 140). Lankford backs up.
DH - Dwight Evans over Jack Clark (127 -> 119). Lankford/Vaughn backing up.

Games played by the C, OFers, and DH have already been covered. Bagwell, Sandberg, and Reed all play over 150 games. Thank goodness for those last two, given the horrifying backups. Boggs plays in 144 games, which is fine for Cooper to get some work in.

Starting rotation:

Roger Clemens (271.1/165)
Greg Maddux (263/116)
David Cone (232.2/111)
Bret Saberhagen (196.1/135)
Tom Gordon (158/107)

Gordon tires down the stretch, allowing for Mike Mussina (87.2/139) to get his cup of coffee starts in. That's some strong coffee.

The bullpen:

Dennis Eckersley (76/130)
Lee Smith (73/158)
Jeff Gray (61.2/186)
Tony Fossas (57/125)
Joe Hesketh (153.1/131) - Some of these innings come in taking a few of Saberhagen's starts. Most are in the bullpen, pitching his arm off since all of the other relievers, while good, don't do well with handling long outings. He won't be smiling if he gets a shoulder MRI after this season.

Dana Kiecker (59 ERA+) and Tom Bolton (83 ERA+) get an extremely small number of innings in which they are allowed to fling their poo against the walls of the box score. Or at least that was the plan.

On July 30, 1991, Jeff Gray suffers a career-ending stroke in the Red Sox clubhouse before a game against the Rangers. I'm not sure that any future knowledge could prevent this.

Fossas and Hesketh move up the depth chart to take some higher-leverage innings, and Kiecker/Bolton become mainstays at the back end of the pen. Hesketh's bump up the bullpen depth chart takes him out of spot starter duty, but it so happens that Mussina is ready for those starts.

The real 1991 Red Sox finished 2nd in the AL East, 7 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays only won 91 games, so that was more an issue of the 1991 Red Sox being lousy (look at that rotation on baseball-reference) than the Blue Jays being excellent. That Blue Jays team bows before my 1991 Red Sox, and the AL East is won for the 8th consecutive year.

The 1991 Minnesota Twins were a legitimately good team, and their strengths were maximized in the postseason. 3 excellent starters and 3 excellent relievers masked depth issues behind them. Morris, Tapani, and Erickson each pitch 2 games in the 6-game series. Fisk and Evans look dreadfully old (well, they are) against such excellent pitching, Jody Reed doesn't hit good pitching all that well anyway, Bagwell tanks in his first taste of the postseason, and Justice is bothered by nagging injuries. Morgan swaps Evans for Vaughn and Justice for Lankford to try to spark the lineup, but to no avail. Maddux and Clemens struggle, Cone and Saberhagen pitch well. Eckersley and Smith lock down every game where they are given a lead, but that only happens twice with the suddenly anemic lineup. The Twins defeat my team of stars in 6 games.

Without their best hitter, David Justice, the 1991 Braves fall to the Dodgers in the NL West. The Pirates defeat the Dodgers in the NLCS, and the Twins take advantage of the Pirates weak bullpen to copy history and win the World Series in 7 games.

Draft to follow.

EDIT - Thanks to Game 6 of the ALCS being at Fenway Park, Carlton Fisk and Dwight Evans are able to bid a final farewell to the fans who have loved them and supported them for so long. There was a ceremony at the last regular season homestand, of course, but it was a formality, everyone knew this team was playoff bound. Fisk and Evans do what Yaz never got the chance to do, and do a lap together around the ballpark, shaking hands as they go. The people who shake Fisk's hand have a little more trouble writing the next day than those who got Evans'. A tearful press conference follows. The Twins wonder why nobody is talking to them, and take that mild annoyance as some motivation to be the story in the World Series.

Edited by JMDurron, 05 November 2010 - 11:33 PM.

[JMDurron]

The real Red Sox had 3 first round picks in the 1991 draft. The regular first round pick, and comp picks for the departures of Larry Andersen and Mike Boddicker via free agency. I have the regular 1st round pick and the Larry Andersen pick, but I never had Boddicker, so I get nothing from him. I do, however, have the Tigers' 1st round pick and a comp pick from Mike Greenwell's departure, so yes, ladies and gentlemen, I have 4 1st round draft picks, and perfect knowledge of the future. BAHAHAHAHAHA!

Ok, let's hope this wasn't a crap draft.

The Red Sox originally selected Aaron Sele, J.J. Johnson, and Scott Hatteberg in the 1991 draft.

I select:

Brad Radke - Arrives in 1995 as an immediate full-timer.
Scott Hatteberg - Arrives in 1995, goes full-time in 1997
Derek Lowe - Arrives in 1997, goes full-time in 1998
Shawn Green - Arrives in 1993, goes full-time in 1995

Hatteberg may not look like much compared to the other 3, but my catching situation is basically horrible behind Daulton.

[JMDurron]

One football game, faceplant into some concrete stairs at the stadium (at least I have my teeth), and internet outage later, it's time for the 1992 Preseason Moves (offseason could be read as either before or after).

The first, and most significant move has nothing to do with the players on the field. In February of 1992, Jean Yawkey suffers a stroke and dies 6 days later. Historically, this leads to John Harrington getting total control of the team, firing the GM, and some degree of organizational and media chaos as Harrington asserts himself, and eventually hires Dan Duquette has general manager. Fortunately for us all, I am not Haywood Sullivan, and my excellent relationship with Jean Yawkey puts me in Harrington's good graces by default. I also have some small controlling interest in the team as a bit of a gift from Mrs. Yawkey in her will, so Harrington would have to live with me even if he didn't want to. Given the winning and the not-negative relationship, we have no issues. He controls the business side of the team, I control baseball ops with an iron fist (and a velvet glove for managing the Globe writers, of course, one must exercise soft power when necessary), and we get along reasonably well. Harrington maintains a positive enough relationship with the other MLB owners that they do not unite to declare an anti-Red Sox jihad that might otherwise be reasonably expected given our relative dominance over the last (almost) two decades.

Now at age 61, Joe Morgan gets a 4-year extension. It would be even longer if I knew how long he'd want to keep managing. If you think I'm going to hire the drooling moron from the University of Alabama, Butch Hobson, you have another thing coming. Morgan is my guy for as long as he wants to be.

As a complete side note, there are some really petty people sponsoring Red Sox baseball-reference pages from the late 80s and early 90s. Good grief, people have jealousy issues.

Carlton Fisk and Dwight Evans retire.

David Cone, who never forgave me for extending Maddux instead of him years ago, spurns my offer of arbitration and signs elsewhere as a free agent. He signs with the Kansas City Royals, one year ahead of when he signed with them in reality. The Royals have a protected 1st round pick in the 1992 draft, but I do get a supplemental pick.

So, position players. Darren Daulton remains at C. Jeff Bagwell remains at 1B, and I hold off on extending him for the time being, just in the unlikely event that the kind of huge contract that I am going to give him would go to his head. Salaries around the league have mostly stabilized for the next few years, so I can afford to wait. Sandberg remains at 2B. I have one more year of Jody Reed at SS. Boggs remains happily, and drunkenly at 3B.

As usual, the OF/DH situation requires some explanation. Mo Vaughn replaces Dwight Evans at DH, but does not quite get full-time PAs yet. Gwynn remains in LF. Burks remains in CF. Justice remains in RF. Lankford remains in need of playing time, and might actually be the best OFer on the team in 1992. The problem is that none of my starters will take too kindly to being benched. This looks like an Ellsbury in 2008 type situation, so let's see how the games played break down.

Vaughn (DH) - 113
Gwynn (LF) - 128
Burks (CF) - 66
Justice (RF) - 144
Lankford (OF) - 153

I'm not 100% certain why Burks plays so few games, presumably he is injured. I may or may not have prevented this injury by keeping Mike Greenwell far away from him at 1B over the years, if it was somehow a side effect of their collision in 1989. That said, boy is that one convenient injury, so I am running with it. Morgan and I pull Lankford aside in Spring Training and make it crystal clear that Ellis Burks will not be back after the 1992 season, and the CF job will be his, no matter what happens in 1992. This carries a risk of Lankford slacking off, but he has been fighting for playing time to prove himself worthy among the stars in my OF, so I gamble that he will respond well. Lankford plays CF when Burks goes down, gives Burks a day off regularly before the injury, and moves to LF on Vaughn's days off, with Gwynn moving to DH. Opposing batters despair at their chances of dropping hits in against a Lankford-Burks-Justice OF defense.

Thankfully, my backups for the IF no longer suck. Vaughn is effectively my 1B backup. The savior of my middle IF arrives in John Valentin, and he backs up 2B and SS. Scott Cooper remains to backup 3B. Phil Plantier takes the 5th OF spot, going to 4th when Burks goes down.

About that backup C...I did not draft John Marzano back in 1984, so I don't have him. I certainly wouldn't take him over Greg Maddux, but he might have been handy now. Fortunately, John Flaherty comes up and can be an adequate all-glove, no-hit backup C.

The starting pitching might look to be in trouble without David Cone, but Mike Mussina is ready for primetime. If Greg Maddux is the good cop, and Roger Clemens is the bad cop, I now have my 1963 Birmingham cop to complete the set.

Clemens-Saberhagen-Maddux-Mussina is the majority of the rotation.

Tom Gordon's 1992 splits show a clear preference for bullpen work, so I remove him from the rotation and commit to his conversion to the bullpen, at least for now.

I do sign Joe Hesketh, and make him the 5th starter.

Eckersley and Smith anchor the bullpen once again. Tom Gordon joins them. Tony Fossas remains from last year as well. Tom Bolton, in his 6th year of team control, joins the bullpen crew. Rookie callup Paul Quantrill completes the set.

Dana Keicker finished his 6th year in 1991, he is not particularly missed.

I do not sacrifice my 1st round draft pick by signing Frank Viola. Hesketh is just fine, thanks.

1992 season and draft to follow.

EDIT - Removed Bob Zupcic

Edited by JMDurron, 07 November 2010 - 04:40 PM.

[JMDurron]

1992 Position Players:

C - Darren Daulton over Tony Pena (62 -> 156). It's happy in the pants time, as Daulton rewards my patience and breaks out. John Flaherty (26) backs up and catches Greg Maddux.
1B - Jeff Bagwell over Mo Vaughn (98 -> 135). Bagwell plays in 162 games and requires no backup. Vaughn gets all his ABs at DH.
2B - Ryne Sandberg over Jody Reed (76 -> 146). John Valentin (113) backs up.
SS - Jody Reed over Luis Rivera (51 -> 76). Valentin backs up.
3B - Wade Boggs (96). Scott Cooper (100) backs up.
LF - Tony Gwynn over Billy Hatcher (63 -> 122). Phil Plantier (90) gets the majority of the backup duty.
CF - Ray Lankford over Bob Zupcic (85 -> 143). I think Lankford responded well! Ellis Burks (103) starts until he is injured, then Plantier backs up.
RF - David Justice over Tom Brunansky (118 -> 121). Plantier backs up.
DH - Mo Vaughn over Jack Clark (83 -> 98). Lankford essentially backs up via Gwynn until Burks goes down, then Valentin gets the backup PAs.

We've already discussed the OF/DH games played. Daulton played 145 games at catcher historically, meaning he plays every game that Maddux does not pitch. Maddux has 35 starts in 1992, which happens to match Flaherty's 35 games in 92 perfectly. This reduces Daulton's games to 127. Bagwell is an iron man at 1B. Sandberg plays over 150, Reed and Boggs both play 143. Valentin gets the PAs he needs courtesy of Vaughn's oddly low number of games played.

The Starting Rotation:

Greg Maddux (268/166)
Roger Clemens (246.2/176)
Mike Mussina (241/157)
Joe Hesketh (148.2/97)
Bret Saberhagen (97.2/100)

Looks like an injury season for Saberhagen. It appears that Tom Gordon (117.2/89) will have to go back and forth between the bullpen and rotation once again.

But wait! Rookie callup Tim Wakefield (92/161) steps forward to take Saberhagen's starts, then Hesketh's when Saberhagen returns in September.

The bullpen:

Dennis Eckersley (80/197)
Lee Smith (75/110)
Tom Gordon (117.2/89)* - 6th starter
Tom Bolton (75.1/86)
Paul Quantrill (49.1/194)
Tony Fossas (29.2/176)

To make up for the gap left by Gordon, Paul Quantrill is called up ahead of schedule and gets more innings at mostly equal effectiveness, we'll call it 70/150. Tom Bolton is not traded for Billy Hatcher during the season, so his entire 1992 line goes to my bullpen. Gordon still serves as the 6th starter during Saberhagen's injury, as guys miss starts from time to time, and Hesketh leaves a few other starts to be picked up.

The historical 1992 Red Sox finished 7th in the AL East, 23 games back of the 96-win Toronto Blue Jays. At long last, another good AL East team emerges. The days of the "AL Least" are finally behind us. Unfortunately for the 1992 Blue Jays, my 6-year count for player control screws them, as David Cone hitting free agency a year early means he is not traded to them by the Mets in a deadline deal, as he has already signed his FA deal with Kansas City that historically happened in 1993. I didn't actually plan this, but it's funny how some things work out. Without Cone to complete their rotation with Jack Morris, Jimmy Key, and Juan Guzman, they simply cannot match how awesome Clemens, Maddux, and Mussina all are in 1992. They would be potentially deadly in a playoff series even without Cone, but they never get there. The Red Sox win the AL East again.

The 1992 Oakland A's made the ALCS behind an impressive lineup, steady starting pitching (no significant highs or lows), and an excellent bullpen. Unfortunately for them, "steady" starting pitching is not the same thing as dominant, postseason quality starting pitching. Saberhagen returns in time to complete a 4-man playoff rotation, and the A's are swept by the Red Sox in the 1992.

The 1992 Braves pitched their way to the NL West crown, even without the bat of David Justice. The 1992 Pirates win the NL East even without Wakefield. Unfortunately, without Wakefield to win Game 3 of the NLCS for them, they are swept by the Braves and never stick around to make the series interesting.

Clemens puts forth a truly awesome effort, and beats Tom Glavine in Game 1. Smoltz bests Maddux in Game 2, but the Sox lineup pummels the Braves bullpen late to get the win. Mussina trumps Avery in game 3. Glavine comes back to best Saberhagen in Game 4. Smoltz pitches a great Game 5, and the balls fall in against Clemens, sending the series back to Atlanta (HFA in the World Series still alternated back then, I believe) with the Red Sox up 3-2. Greg Maddux finally gets the postseason monkey off his back (he was under a ton of media pressure with his contract and mediocre postseason starts so far) by throwing 9 innings of shutout ball to win Game 6 over Steve Avery, overcoming 3 IF errors on Boggs, Reed, and Bagwell. The Red Sox are World Series Champs again.

To recap, it is now 1903 - 1912 - 1915 - 1916 - 1918 - 1977 - 1978 - 1982 - 1984 - 1985 - 1987 - 1988 - 1990 - 1992.
14-time World Champions, and the only one of these newer ones that could have been considered an upset win was from 1977.

The draft is next.

EDIT - Removed Bob Zupcic, put Plantier as backup RF.

Edited by JMDurron, 07 November 2010 - 04:41 PM.

[JMDurron]

In 1992, the Red Sox had no first round picks, courtesy of the Frank Viola signing. I have an extra pick (supplemental round) thanks to David Cone's departure. It might have been nicer if a better team had signed him, but since he signed in KC in 1993, it seemed only fair to have him sign there in 1992 instead of manufacturing a way to get yet another extra draft pick.

With my regular 1st round pick, I take Johnny Damon. Damon will first appear in 1995 and become a full-timer in 1996.

With my supplemental pick, I take Jason Giambi. Giambi will first appear in 1995 and become a full-timer in 1996.

[JMDurron]

Ok, just caught myself - I used Bob Zupcic has a backup OF in 1992, but never drafted him in the 1st round in 1987. Making corrections.

[JMDurron]

1993 Preseason Moves

Ok, there is one historical transaction that was just weird. Jody Reed was selected by the Colorado Rockies as the 13th pick in the 1992 expansion draft. He was then immediately traded to the Dodgers for Ultimate Fighter Rudy Seanez. This clearly indicates to me that Reed's 7 game cup of coffee in 1987 did not count significantly towards his service time, he must have been a Sep callup only. I know I have been going strictly by "1st year, no matter how many games played!" to determine service time, but I really cannot even begin to figure out what happens if Reed is a free agent instead of picked by the Rockies, so I'm going to break my own rule and say that I leave him unprotected and watch him leave. So that transaction goes as per history, because I don't know what else to do with it.

I need to go through the rest of the roster before deciding what is or is not done with the other transactions. That one was kind of a prereq.

Daulton remains at C. Sandberg heads into his final year at 2B. John Valentin steps in for Reed at SS. Boggs remains at 3B. Gwynn remains in LF. Justice remains in RF. Mo Vaughn remains at DH.

My playing time nightmare in the OF is now over. Ellis Burks is a free agent following the 1992 season, and since I have Lankford, I make no attempt to keep him. Burks will end up being the better player in 1993, but this is the price I pay for extending the guys that I really want to build around over the long term. I am able to extend more guys than I otherwise would thanks to the fact that I am not signing any high-priced FAs, but there is still a limit. I also need to let players leave when their contracts end, but while they are still productive as often as possible in order to collect draft picks, which is how I leverage my knowledge of the future. So Lankford over Burks is the big picture move here. Unfortunately, given that Burks expressed an interest in playing in Boston "for only one more season" after the 1992 campaign, I cannot risk offering him arbitration, and therefore he is allowed to depart without the Red Sox getting any compensation for him.

So, Lankford is the CF. This leaves 1B.

There's no roster crunch at 1B, as Jeff Bagwell is the man, and will remain the man for a very long time. He is under my control through 1996, but given that average MLB salaries start to spike again in 1996, and keep right on climbing, I want to be certain to extend him long before we ever reach that point. He is entering his 3rd season in 1993. He will be my franchise position player once Gwynn and Boggs play out the remainder of their contracts, so I sign Bagwell to an extension that takes effect in 1994, and runs through the 2003 season. This 10-year deal is inked in spring training, but he gets some signing bonus money up front to make up for the fact that he is still technically making around the minimum wage in 1993.

Flaherty remains the backup C, despite his putrid bat. Vaughn is essentially the backup 1B at DH. Tim Naehring is just healthy enough to play some backup 2B/SS. Scott Cooper remains to backup 3B. Rookie callups Jim Edmonds and Shawn Green will share some backup OF time.

My backup OF situation requires a look at the rest of the roster before making a decision.

The top 4 starters are obvious - Clemens, Saberhagen, Maddux, and Mussina. Tom Gordon is the 5th starter (another flip-flop), because the alternative is 1993 Tim Wakefield, a year so bad that the Pirates cut him for it. I have to give Wakefield his disaster season to get him set for the rest of his career, but that doesn't mean that he can't do it as the 6th starter on the depth chart.

After 15 seasons in a Red Sox uniform, it is time to say goodbye to Dennis Eckersley. He isn't quite ready to accept that he is not worth keeping around anymore, which is fair since he still has some decent years left to come. All he knows is that I am offering him arbitration after an awesome 1992 season, instead of extending him sooner or giving him a new, rich and long deal. He rejects arbitration and signs with Oakland. As a type A, this nets me Oakland's 1st round pick, and a supplemental selection.

I still have Lee Smith for one more year, and he stands alone as the closer. Rookie Greg McMichael arrives and is ready to be the setup man from day 1. Paul Quantrill remains from the 1992 pen as well. Young gun Ken Ryan, who got a very brief taste in 1992, becomes a bullpen mainstay as well. Bolton, Fossas, and Hesketh are all allowed to depart. I follow history by signing Scott Bankhead to a 2-year deal to round out the bullpen.

Historically, the Red Sox added to the bullpen before the 1993 season by trading Phil Plantier to the Padres for Jose Melendez. I have no need for Jose Melendez, even though I do admire his writing. Plantier was a full-time player in 1993, and had a great season. Given that he never had much of a career after 1993, I don't feel particularly bad forcing him to rot on the bench as my backup OF. Neither Shawn Green nor Jim Edmonds are ready to step up into the role yet, so somebody has to do it, and it's Plantier.

So, this lets me address other historical transactions of note. I do not trade for Ivan Calderon. I do not sign Andre Dawson, despite some fan and media campaigning to bring him back "home." I do not sign Jeff Russell.

The 1993 season is next, followed by the draft.

Edited by JMDurron, 07 November 2010 - 05:18 PM.

[JMDurron]

Transaction I forgot - I do not sign Scott Fletcher

1993 Position Players:

C - Darren Daulton over Tony Pena (32 -> 135). John Flaherty (10) backs up. And gets pinch hit for. OFTEN.
1B - Jeff Bagwell over Mo Vaughn (139 -> 144). Vaughn backs up, but mostly plays Ortiz to Bagwell's Manny.
2B - Ryne Sandberg over Scott Fletcher (95 -> 108). Tim Naehring (113) backs up.
SS - John Valentin (107). Naehring backs up.
3B - Wade Boggs over Scott Cooper (98 -> 104). Cooper backs up.
LF - Tony Gwynn over Mike Greenwell (125 -> 137). Phil Plantier (121) backs up.
CF - Ray Lankford over Billy Hatcher (93 -> 95). Plantier backs up.
RF - David Justice over Carlos Quintana (56 -> 130). Plantier backs up. Lou Gorman rightfully gets killed over the Bagwell deal, but how about the "Carlos Quintana in RF" experiment? If we had UZR/TZ/FB back then, he might have set the all-time record for worst defensive rating as a RF. This team's corner OFers were Mike Greenwell and Carlos Quintana. Inexcusable!
DH - Mo Vaughn over Andre Dawson (92 -> 139). Plantier backs up.

Maddux (36 starts) forces the usual Daulton/Flaherty adjustment - Daulton's games played go down from 147 to 126. Flaherty's games go up from 13 to 36.

Vaughn, Bagwell, Valentin, Boggs, and Justice all play full seasons (140+ games). Sandberg only plays in 117 still-productive games. Naehring stays with the MLB club for the entire season to take Sandberg's missed games. In the OF, Gwynn plays 122 games, and Lankford plays in 127. In the best case scenario, Phil Plantier would go from his 138 historical games played to (40 + 35 + 5 (Justice) + 10 (Vaughn) + 20 (Bagwell, Vaughn to 1B)) 110 games played, plus a large dose of pinch-hitting duty for Flaherty, and Sandberg against tough RHPs. Not bad, and not enough of a disruption to horribly wreck his historical productivity, IMO.

1993 Rotation:

Greg Maddux (267/172)
Roger Clemens (191.2/104)
Mike Mussina (167.2/100)
Tom Gordon (155.2/128)
Bret Saberhagen (139.1/123)

Turns out Wakefield won't need any time in the pen to put up his 20 starts of horror, not with those IP numbers.

Tim Wakefield (128.1/72) - Since Flaherty catches Maddux already, and sucks beyond all reason, Daulton catches Wakefield. Daulton gets to make this facial expression 20 times in 1993.



1993 Bullpen:

Lee Smith (58/104)
Greg McMichael (91.2/197)
Paul Quantrill (138/119) - 7th starter
Scott Bankhead (64.1/133)
Ken Ryan (50/130)

I do not make a midseason trade for Rob Deer.

I do sign Rafael Betancourt as an amateur free agent (historical). He will develop as he did in reality, I just won't lose him to Cleveland while he does it. He arrives in 2003. I am a patient fellow, just ask Eckersley.

The real 1993 Red Sox finished in 5th place in the AL East, 15 games behind the Toronto Blue Jays. The 1993 Blue Jays have a very good lineup, a great bullpen, and an average-looking rotation.

Where my Red Sox will finish depends almost entirely on when my starters miss their innings. If they are spread out enough for Wakefield and Quantrill to cover for them, then I think I take the East. If they are not, then that might be too much for even this lineup to overcome, since I'm off the roster and into GENERIC AAA DRECK at that point. Maddux is obviously awesome (he just LOVES John Flaherty) and healthy and will head up the playoff rotation. Clemens made a full 29 starts, did not obviously miss a month anywhere, but he just only averaged 6.5 IP in those starts. That's just fine with this rotation and bullpen. Mussina made 25 starts, and averaged 6 2/3 IP per start. The problem is that it looks like Mussina pitched at least a couple of times every month, but was ineffective at the end of the season. I'll call him "gimpy and ineffective going down the stretch." Gordon was excellent down the stretch, he misses starts at the beginning of the season. Wakefield can cover that. Saberhagen made one start in August and was done for the season. Since Saberhagen and Gordon missed different portions of the season, I think I can safely say that Wakefield and Quantrill are able to fill the gaps.

The pitching isn't as great as usual, but it's good enough to combine with the awesome lineup and awesome bullpen to make the postseason. "Jeff and Mo" power the Red Sox to yet another AL East title. This is the 11th in a row, since the last 2nd place finish was in 1983, in the AL East playoff against the Yankees.

The 1993 White Sox are a tough opponent for the 1993 ALCS. 4 excellent starting pitchers, 3 good bullpen arms, and a lineup featuring Frank Thomas, Robin Ventura, Tim Raines...and Ellis Burks. Maddux wins both games he pitches, but Thomas, Raines, and Burks go wild on the other starters, and my rotation just can't keep up with McDowell, Fernandez, Alvarez, and Bere. The White Sox win the 1993 ALCS in 6 games. Burks rubs it in with a walkoff HR to win Game 2.

I have completely screwed the 1993 NLCS history. The Braves lack Greg McMichael, David Justice, and Greg Maddux. The Phillies lose Daulton's monster year. Nothing I have done impacts the two teams chasing them, so the 1993 Giants beat the 1993 Montreal Expos (more on them in a minute) for the NL Crown. The Giants go on to beat the White Sox in a great 7-game series, ending their drought a full 17 years ahead of schedule.

Fun fact about the 1993 Montreal Expos - their baseball reference page is sponsored by Baseball Mogul, and their starting 3B is Sean Berry, who would later end up on the Red Sox, and become the chosen name for the poster who started this whole fun thought exercise. I thought that was funny.

The draft is next.

Edited by JMDurron, 07 November 2010 - 09:55 PM.

[JMDurron]

The 1993 Draft

I enter with 3 first round picks - my regular 1st round pick, Oakland's 1st round pick, and a supplemental 1st round pick for losing Eckersley.

Historically, the Red Sox took Trot Nixon with the 7th overall pick.

I have gone with the general rule of sticking with an effective historical pick when I have the option, but I don't think that I have the option here. Due to winning the World Series in 1992, I have the 26th overall pick, not the 7th overall pick. I have made convenient assumptions in the past (Roger Clemens) about the player the Red Sox originally took still being available when I picked. In Clemens' case, I was making an assumption that needed to hold for 7 draft picks. I think that might be reasonable. In this case, 19 picks seems like a bit of a stretch. Oakland had the 25th pick, so that's not really helping. I do not feel that Trot Nixon is a reasonable option in this situation, so I cannot draft him.

With my first selection, I draft Scott Rolen. Rolen will appear in 1996, and become full-time in 1997.
With my second selection, I draft Kevin Millwood. Millwood will appear in 1997, and become full-time in 1998.
With my supplemental selection, I draft Jermaine Dye. Dye first appears in 1996, and becomes a regular in 1999.

[Rough Carrigan]

Your endurance is commendable. The thing is, I don't find the utterly open ended rules you've assumed all that interesting. It becomes a bit like the kid on that Star Trek episode who could conjure up literally anything. It all becomes a bit meaningless when you can do anything. That's just my personal preference.

I'm sorry if I missed a mention earlier but I think the series done at The Hardball Times by Steve Treder was much more interesting. He looked at various teams that had a lot of talent and allowed himself one exception from the events that actually happened, and one exception only. He could undo any deal that a team made. He couldn't make any new deals. He couldn't sign anyone that a team didn't sign. He could simply undo one deal. And, to me, the results were fascinating. You see that teams generating tons of talent often take that for granted or they can't leave well enough alone and start to make deal based on spurious perceptions of need or ignoble biases.

Here are a few:
The Virtual 1930 Giants part I
The Virtual 1930 Giants part II

The Virtual 1966 Giants part I
The Virtual 1966 Giants part II

The Virtual 1972 Astros part I
The Virtual 1972 Astros part II

The Virtual 1916-1925 Red Sox part 1 of 5
This last one is pretty fascinating but you'll have to go to Hardball Times and find the other four pieces. Just use their on site search. There are nearly a dozen of these, all done by Steve Treder, I think, all well done and worth your while if you like this sort of speculation.

And there was a thread here at SoSH:
The Virtual 1978 Red Sox part I
The Virtual 1978 Red Sox Part II
The Virtual 1978 Red Sox Part III

[JMDurron]

1994 Preseason

The knowledge that there will be no division titles or World Series in 1994 is almost enough to make one try to get the players to lose to get the highest draft pick possible, but there's no way to go there without blowing my cover. Plus, it would be a really scummy thing to do, and it might have a bit of an impact on the gate receipts that are paying for Bagwell, Maddux, Clemens, Gwynn, etc..

First, some departures.

Ryne Sandberg departs after 13 seasons in a Red Sox uniform. He believes he has plenty of baseball left in him at age 34, and is rather insulted by my offer of arbitration. So much the better. He's a type A, rejects arbitration, and signs with the Chicago Cubs. How amazingly convenient for me. The Cubs have the highest unprotected draft pick in the 1994 draft, which saves me from near disaster. I get their 1st round pick and a supplemental pick.

Lee Smith also departs, and also rejects arbitration as a type A. He signs with the Baltimore Orioles, matching history. Unfortunately, the Orioles also sign Sid Fernandez away from the Mets in this offseason, and I don't know how to tell which FA signing takes precedence for the 1st round pick. I am forced to default to what I think their ratings should be, which tells me that an excellent starter trumps a very good reliever. I get a supplemental 1st round pick.

Tom Gordon's contract is also up after the 1993 season, leaving me with something of a dilemma. I have 4 starters in Clemens-Saberhagen-Maddux-Mussina, but my two 5th starter options are Gordon, who is now a FA, and Tim Wakefield, who spends the 1994 season in my minor league system, running around a swamp with an aged knuckleball master riding on his back. This is where the strike plays into my thinking. Gordon is a type B, and I'd rather have a supplemental 1st round pick in the draft than a few better starts for a team that literally can't win, because there is nothing to play for in 1994. The 5th starter isn't exactly a big driver of fan interest, either. I let Gordon leave, he rejects arb, and I take the supplemental pick.

So, now that I'm done hauling in draft picks, it's time to put an actual team together.

Daulton remains at C. Bagwell remains at 1B. Tim Naehring steps up to become the 2B. Valentin remains at SS. Boggs remains at 3B. Gwynn remains in LF. Lankford remains in CF. Justice remains in RF. Vaughn remains at DH.

The first 4 starters are set, with Clemens, Saberhagen, Maddux, and Mussina. I need a 5th starter.

Going down the list of guys who started for the real 1994 team, I never drafted Aaron Sele, Hesketh was cut loose a year ago, and Danny Darwin was never signed. Chris Nabholz was a midseason acquisition in exchange for Jeff Russell, who I never signed. Two men now stand alone - Tim VanEgmond and Gar Finnvold. They shall ride the shuttle and share 5th starter duties. One man's "cheap!" is another man's "thrifty!" TimGarVanVold might make somebody a decent screen name for whatever SoSH ends up being called in this reality.

In the bullpen, the remaining 4 slide up a rung on the ladder. Greg McMichael becomes the closer. Paul Quantrill, Ken Ryan, and Scott Bankhead also remain on board. I sign Chris Howard for close to the minimum just to have a 5th warm body. Any other innings will be filled with random dreck like Sergio Valdez and Ricky Trlicek, whose WHIP was 2.149 in 1994.

I do not sign Otis Nixon. I do not sign Damon Berryhill, even though he ends up bringing a comp pick in 1995, because I need Flaherty as the backup C to Daulton. Drat. I do not trade John Flaherty.

I do make the trades that bring Lee Tinsley and Glenn Murray to the organization.

The 1994 season shall follow. Eventually.

[JMDurron]

Your endurance is commendable. The thing is, I don't find the utterly open ended rules you've assumed all that interesting. It becomes a bit like the kid on that Star Trek episode who could conjure up literally anything. It all becomes a bit meaningless when you can do anything. That's just my personal preference.

I understand what you mean, but I think you are being a little harsh with the "conjure up literally anything." The original premise of the thread was "you are the GM, and you have your knowledge of the future." That's pretty huge, and if you start with a team with a talented roster, that's pretty close to "God Mode" right there. Being the GM means that you don't just have control over one thing, you have control over everything (barring Peter Angelos type situations) to at least some degree. I have been restricting myself to a particular style of team building (draft, trade/let stars leave with rare exceptions, don't spend all my time ripping off other teams via trades with my knowledge - when I do it is variations on trades that actually happened), and have been guessing where I have to guess, and assuming where I think I need to be assuming. I agree with you that changing a single specific thing, or very few things, would make for a more interesting and thorough treatment of a given season for a given team. As I understood it, that was not the premise of this exercise. I essentially have to be a little vague and open-ended in order to continue outside of 1 or 2 years in, where the number of variables and changes become so immense that I could never possibly begin to analyze the results, and therefore the thought exercise/conversation/thread ends.

Ultimately, it comes down to the fact that I want to know what happens next. The only way I can even hope to speculate about what happens next is by making certain allowances for how admittedly silly this becomes to a degree, and see what following my particular set of rules/assumptions/style leads to down the road. It is also a bit of a history lesson for a fan like myself, who simply did not pay attention to the details of teams in this timeframe like I did the 2003-present teams.

On the other hand, I am a Star Trek fan who has been known to engage in the occasional bit of cheating/editing games that I play, so you have me pegged with that comparison in general.

In retrospect, I think part of this all spun off (aside from JMOH rightfully asking how I'd deal with the roster crunch) from me misreading part of Sean Berry's original post. It says "your knowledge" of the future, not "knowledge", or "all knowledge." Since I don't actually have a copy of baseball-reference and the baseball cube in my brain, I've basically been cheating horribly from the beginning, and just now noticed. Apparently my endurance has grossly outstripped my reading comprehension.

I'm sorry if I missed a mention earlier but I think the series done at The Hardball Times by Steve Treder was much more interesting. He looked at various teams that had a lot of talent and allowed himself one exception from the events that actually happened, and one exception only. He could undo any deal that a team made. He couldn't make any new deals. He couldn't sign anyone that a team didn't sign. He could simply undo one deal. And, to me, the results were fascinating. You see that teams generating tons of talent often take that for granted or they can't leave well enough alone and start to make deal based on spurious perceptions of need or ignoble biases.

Here are a few:
The Virtual 1930 Giants part I
The Virtual 1930 Giants part II

The Virtual 1966 Giants part I
The Virtual 1966 Giants part II

The Virtual 1972 Astros part I
The Virtual 1972 Astros part II

The Virtual 1916-1925 Red Sox part 1 of 5
This last one is pretty fascinating but you'll have to go to Hardball Times and find the other four pieces. Just use their on site search. There are nearly a dozen of these, all done by Steve Treder, I think, all well done and worth your while if you like this sort of speculation.

And there was a thread here at SoSH:
The Virtual 1978 Red Sox part I
The Virtual 1978 Red Sox Part II
The Virtual 1978 Red Sox Part III

I remember your 1978 thread, and enjoyed reading it at the time. I may go back and re-read it now, and I never saw the Treder articles before. I do enjoy some good speculative history from time to time. Ultimately, I just don't have the time, energy, or knowledge base to replicate an analysis on the scale that I would like at the level of detail that you pulled off.

This would seem like an interesting thought exercise for another thread, perhaps in this subforum? If you want to see what some folks here might come up with in situations that are more detailed and constrained, why not throw it out there and see what we come up with? There are tons of potential variations. Undo one deal. Change one draft pick. Add one new deal. Prevent one injury.

[JMDurron]

"Eventually" looks to be this coming Thursday. Work, school, and catching up on all the threads I haven't been reading lately will occupy me until then.

If there are any requests, particularly with regards to readability (do I need to break up the posts into smaller chunks?), let me know either here or via PM by Thursday morning.

[BucketOBalls]

"Eventually" looks to be this coming Thursday. Work, school, and catching up on all the threads I haven't been reading lately will occupy me until then.

If there are any requests, particularly with regards to readability (do I need to break up the posts into smaller chunks?), let me know either here or via PM by Thursday morning.

No requests, but I'd be glad to read it as long as you want to keep going. I like your high-level approach to realism. I find it decently convincing(as much as is possible in this sort of thing.), while not being over complicated.

Weird note I thought of but was to late to mention.

Honestly, you might have actually helped Wake's career. Leyland rode him pretty hard in 1992. He had a ~59 inning increase over the previous year and number of high pitch count games. In the playoffs he threw complete games of 109 and 141 pitches, with 3 days in between. Not the worst abuse ever, but a connection to him sucking the next year wouldn't surprise me.

It doesn't matter for what you are doing(and would be impossible to account for anyway), but I can only think it would help.

[JMDurron]

The Virtual 1916-1925 Red Sox part 1 of 5
This last one is pretty fascinating but you'll have to go to Hardball Times and find the other four pieces. Just use their on site search. There are nearly a dozen of these, all done by Steve Treder, I think, all well done and worth your while if you like this sort of speculation.

To follow up on this part of Rough's post, here are Part 2 and Part 3 of the Treder/Namee series on the alternate history 1916-1925 Boston Red Sox. It is a good read, I recommend it.

One note on a stylistic difference between what they do, and what I am doing - they actually put the full stats of the alternate roster together, right down to calculating the pythag record of the new roster. I'm not comfortable with doing that in my case, because there are so many moving parts in this exercise that impact everything from PAs, to Rs, to RBIs, to 2Bs-vs-HRs that I only feel comfortable using the two numbers that I have some degree of confidence in carrying over from one circumstance to another - park and league-adjusted OPS+ and ERA+, and games played (health). I plan to introduce a slight AL/NL adjustment to both OPS+ and ERA+ of my NL transplants starting in 1995, since ERA+ and OPS+ are adjusted within the player's league, not across leagues, so as the talent disparity between the leagues asserts itself, I feel that an adjustment is appropriate. 1995, after the strike, seems like a reasonably logical time for me to start making that adjustment.

[JMDurron]

Since I can't seem to even sleep in on my day off, here comes the 1994 season. I forgot two transactions.

First - I sign Carlos Rodriguez to be the backup 2B/SS/3B due to Naehring being promoted to starting 2B.

Second - During the season, in an exceedingly rare case of me signing an amateur FA that the Red Sox did not historically sign, I outbid the Yankees for Tony Armas Jr.

1994 Position Players:

C: Darren Daulton over Damon Berryhill (82 -> 137). John Flaherty (-12) backs up. Damn you, Greg Maddux.
1B: Jeff Bagwell over Mo Vaughn (146 -> 213). Vaughn is effectively the backup.
2B: Tim Naehring over Scott Fletcher (60 -> 93). Carlos Rodriguez (83) backs up.
SS: John Valentin (128). Rodriguez backs up.
3B: Wade Boggs over Scott Cooper (97 -> 141). Cooper backs up.
LF: Tony Gwynn over Mike Greenwell (101 -> 169).
CF: Ray Lankford over Otis Nixon (74 -> 121).
RF: David Justice over Billy Hatcher (57 -> 147).
DH: Mo Vaughn over Andre Dawson (82 -> 146).

Flaherty backs up C. Vaughn backs up 1B. Rodriguez backs up 2B and SS. Cooper backs up 3B. This leaves the OF, which gets interesting. I should have addressed this in the preseason thread. I basically have one guy the team had already traded before 1994, Phil Plantier, and two guys who I have drafted who are not yet full-timers in Sean Green and Jim Edmonds. Green got so little playing time in 1994 as to be irrelevant. Edmonds did, playing in 94 games, while Plantier historically played in 96. In a strike-shortened season of 115 games, that's not a lot of playing time left to go around. Vaughn was a full-time player, as was Bagwell, so there is no "play DH while Vaughn is at 1B" aid to be found here. Gwynn, Lankford, and Justice all essentially play within 10 games of the full load, so there are only enough games for 1 backup OF, and that is clearly Edmonds, as he is developing while Plantier is on his way to being a complete bust. Plantier is on the trading block. I need to see the numbers on the rest of the team to see what he could be traded for. He has decent value at his age, coming off an excellent offensive year as my 4th OFer.

The 1994 Rotation:

Greg Maddux (202/271)
Bret Saberhagen (177.1/153)
Mike Mussina (176.1/164)
Roger Clemens (170.2/178)

Gar FinnVold (36.1/86)
Tim VanEgmond (38.1/80)

Yeah, I'm a little bit pissed off about this strike. This rotation was awesome in 1994.

The bullpen:

Greg McMichael (58.2/111)
Ken Ryan (48/208)
Chris Howard (39.2/140)
Scott Bankhead (37.2/112)
Paul Quantrill (23/145)

So, I don't have much of a need to fill on this roster, which doesn't have anything to play for in October anyway. I still need to move Plantier for something. I'd try to get someone who means a comp pick in 1995, but there were only 5. Two of the players are too good to trade for, and I don't get to sign Damon Berryhill thanks to Maddux's Flaherty fetish. Honestly, looking around the league in 1994, I've got nothing. I can't find a team needing an OF who has something to give up that I could use. Of course, there's also the small question of what exactly I could use.

I am losing two bullpen arms after this season, but the real 1995 Red Sox made a couple of small FA signings that cost no draft picks that deal with that easily enough. My starting rotation and OF both face a roster crunch in 1995. Ray Durham arrives for 2B duty in 1995. There's honestly nothing that I need, so I'm not sure I can justify using Plantier's market value to screw another team in this timeline, particularly for no significant gain to myself. Plantier is still under team control, and getting Edmonds his PAs and innings in the field is the top priority, so Plantier is the 5th OFer and mostly rides the pine. I have to leave it to manager Joe Morgan to keep this from being a clubhouse distraction...but wait, I don't actually care if that is a distraction this year. Risk mitigation is my friend!

Moves during the season:

I do not trade Paul Quantrill away for Wes Chamberlain.
I do not sell Scott Bankhead to the Yankees. They get him in the offseason anyway.

As mentioned above, I sign Tony Armas, Jr.

The real 1994 Red Sox finished 4th in the new, 3-division AL East, 17 games behind the Yankees. My 1994 team is obviously vastly superior to the real version, but is it 17 games better? The 1994 Yankees outperformed their pythag by two games under Buck Showalter, but they also had Wade Boggs at 3B. Given that I am once again trotting out the best lineup in baseball by a significant margin, and the most dominant top-4 starters in the league, I think my team makes up the gap. The Red Sox end up leading the division when the strike occurs, but there is no division title to celebrate.

Up next: The 1994 draft, in which I have 5 1st round picks.

Edited by JMDurron, 11 November 2010 - 08:21 AM.

[JMDurron]

The 1994 Draft, or "How Ryne Sandberg Saved My Ass"

The real Red Sox had 1 1st round draft pick in 1994. It was the 12th pick overall, out of 28 regular 1st round picks. They selected Nomar Garciaparra. The problem is, I have, at worst, the 26 overall pick in the 1994 draft, thanks to making it to the 1993 ALCS.

I have established in the 1983 (Clemens), and 1993 (Nixon) drafts that I will make an assumption that a historical Red Sox 1st round pick will still be available, but only if I am within a few picks of the original slot. 14 picks out of 28 is not "within a few picks." Fortunately, I had also been making a general effort to return players who I developed to their true historical teams when they depart, if only to make team evaluations in following years for historical and, frankly, less of a headache to analyze. This saves me in the case of Ryne Sandberg, because the Cubs had the 15th pick in the 1994 draft. Only the 2nd half of 1st round picks can be lost due to FA signings, but with 28 regular picks before the supplemental round, the 15th pick is the best pick I could have gotten from a departing FA. 15 is within 3 picks of #12. Since the 13th and 14th picks originally were used to Paul Konerko and Jason Varitek, I think it's reasonable to say that I am not boning those two teams too badly when I saw that Nomar is still available for me to draft in this situation.

So, the Red Sox took Nomar Garciaparra historically. I also take Nomar Garciaparra with my 1st pick. Nomar will arrive in 1996 and go full-time in 1997.

Oh, the joys of drafting well, and being able to let FAs leave. I have my regular 1st round pick remaining, and the three comp picks from the departures of Ryne Sandberg, Lee Smith, and Tom Gordon. That's 4 more picks! Now I just have to try to keep all these moving parts in mind and decide how best to use them.

Ok, this draft is pissing me off. 1994 was apparently the year...of the reliever. The position that is easiest to fill with guys off the street when you know what they did that year anyway. Damnit all.

1 - Nomar Garciaparra, 1996/1997

With my next 1st round draft pick, I select Javier Vazquez. Vazquez will arrive and be a full-timer in 1998.

With my first supplemental pick, I select Keith Foulke. Foulke will arrive in 1997.

With my second supplemental pick, I select Danny Graves. Graves will arrive in 1996.

With my third supplemental pick, I select Bob Howry. Howry will arrive in 1998.

Yeah, there was crap available elsewhere, or else guys who I have superior options for as we go. If you think that's a crazy batch of relievers, also consider that Eric Gagne was drafted in 1994, but did not sign.

The 1995 preseason, coming up soon.

[JMDurron]

The 1995 Preseason - ROSTER APOCALYPSE

The 1995 roster is a very unique collision, in that we have finally reached the point where my management, that has made the 1989-1994 crap rosters awesome, collides firmly with teams that were actually good historically. I also happen to have a massive wave of my own draftees inbound, and only a couple of guys departing, so this is going to be a MASSIVE headache. This season may require more suspension of disbelief than an episode of Heroes.

First, the departures.

After 11 seasons in a Red Sox uniform, it is time to bid a fond farewell to Bret Saberhagen, whose contract has expired. Having just finished his age 30 season, Saberhagen, as well as teams around the league, have reason to think that he can continue pitching at a high level. I offer him arbitration, he declines, leaves as a Type A free agent, and signs with the New York Mets. This gives me the Mets' 1st round pick in the 1995 draft (18th overall), as well as a supplemental pick. I really would have liked Toronto to sign him instead, but oh well. I've set a precedent and I am sticking with it.

David Justice completes his 6th year of service in 1994, and also departs. He is also offered arbitration, also declines (going into his age 29 season, obviously he goes for the long-term deal), is also a Type A, and signs with the Atlanta Braves. I get the Braves' #26 overall pick in the 1995 draft, and another supplemental pick.

Now at age 65, manager Joe Morgan still seems to have some interest in staying on as manager. He did not manage anywhere else historically after being fired in 1991, so I have no idea when he might have stopped managing if left to his own devices. Joe Torre kept managing until age 70 (and might continue), and Joe Morgan has a fairly similar success rate with the Red Sox, plus his GM gets along with him extremely well, so I don't think that it would be unreasonable for me to give Manager Joe Morgan a new 6-year contract, covering his age 65 - 70 managerial seasons, ending after the 2000 campaign.

Kevin Kennedy,

Now, the new arrivals.

That was the easy part. Based on historical appearances, the following players either arrive or go full-time in 1995:

Jim Edmonds (Goes Full-Time)
Ray Durham (Arrives Full-Time)
Andy Pettitte (Arrives Full-Time)
Brad Radke (Arrives Full-Time)
Scott Hatteberg (Arrives Part-Time)
Shawn Green (Goes Full-Time)
Johnny Damon (Arrives Part-Time)
Jason Giambi (Arrives Part-Time)

Plus, Tim Wakefield returns from Dagobah his minor league vision quest. I may have to allow myself some leeway with the "Arrives Part-Time" crowd, and even then I might be forced into some trades. Let's see.

The Roster

At C, both the starter and the backup remain from last season. Darren Daulton starting, John Flaherty backing up. Historically, this appears to be one of Darren Daulton's injury-plagued seasons, but it was also Flaherty's first large uptick in playing time, and he flourished. How handy. Daulton's injury also allows for Hatteberg's historical cup of coffee with minimal disruption.

Jeff Bagwell remains at 1B. Mo Vaughn remains at DH. Jason Giambi arrives and sees limited action. This seems to be a simple enough backup role, the problems on this front will arrive in 1996.

2B, SS, and 3B become rather interesting. Tim Naehring, the 1994 2B on my team, and 1995 3B on the real 1995 Red Sox, remains. John Valentin remains at SS. Wade Boggs remains at 3B. Scott Cooper is still under team control. Ray Durham joins the fray, and was historically a full-time 2B in 1995. There is also the long-term issue that both Naehring and Boggs are on the final years of their contracts, Ray Durham is strictly a 2B, Scott Cooper sucks in 1995 and will not play in 1996, and Scott Rolen isn't ready until 1997. Given that Ray Durham is a rookie (won't rock the boat), and does not have a massive bat that I am worried about disrupting significantly by negatively impacting his playing time in a single season, I put my trust in Morgan to keep Durham on the right track, and make the following moves. Durham is not the kind of HOF talent that I am paranoid about disrupting.

- Extend Naehring for 1 season, buying out his last arb year (1995), and one FA year (1996). He will play 2B in 1995, and shift to 3B in 1996 when Boggs departs. Durham backs up 2B and subs in frequently to get as much playing time as possible.
- Leave Valentin in place. Naehring also backs up here with Durham at 2B.
- Boggs remains at 3B, Cooper is expendable, Naehring backs up with Durham at 2B.

Then there's the OF. Gwynn remains in LF, Lankford remains...but where? Jim Edmonds and Shawn Green are both ready for full-time action, and Johnny Damon arrives to see part-time work. That's right, folks, it's time for another instance of counting games played, and seeing what is left to spread around. 1B/DH has nothing to give this time, due to Giambi's presence.

144 games were played in the strike-shortened 1995 season. Tony Gwynn played in 135. Ray Lankford played in 132. Jim Edmonds played in 141. Shawn Green played in 121. Johnny Damon played in 47. Edmonds clearly takes priority over Green, due to both his bat and his glove in CF, so he is the third starter. Assuming Gwynn-Edmonds-Lankford in the OF, that leaves 9 + 12 + 3 games, so only 24 games for whoever is left. Gwynn (3 years remaining), and Edmonds (4 years remaining) are staying, so this becomes a debate between Lankford, Green, and Damon.

Green has already had some bench time in both 1993 and 1994, and risks becoming a permanent 4th OF (busted future production) if I do not do something with him. Lankford is the superior player, but is on the last year of team control, while Green has 4 years remaining, with a nice 5th year that I might try to extend him for. I think I can bury Damon for a year without crippling his future production, and Lankford is gone after 1995 to make that less of an issue. If I keep Green over Lankford, then Damon is still in the same position in 1996, plus Jermaine Dye arrives as a part timer in 1996. I think my best move is to trade Green, keep the superior Lankford for a year in RF, then let Lankford leave for picks after this season and put Damon's range in RF, even though his arm sucks, because the rest of the offense can carry his bat.

So, I have a 22-year old OFer with high upside and a 1st round pedigree to trade. I don't know what his precise trade value was in 1995, but I do know that my franchise has LONG since developed a stupendous reputation for player drafting and development. There are also convenient media reports around Boston (and now nationally via ESPN) talking about how fantastic all 5 of my OFers are, or will be in the future. On the other hand, I've also developed a "Braves and pitchers" type reputation of letting players walk at just the right time, so some GMs will be on guard on the principle that if I am trying to trade a player, he just can't be that great, can he? We will analyze trade options after I do the rest of the roster, because I might have more to move.

To the rotation, where things are actually even harder to work out. Clemens, Maddux, and Mussina remain from the Fantastic Four of 1994. Andy Pettitte is ready for full-time duty in the rotation. Brad Radke is also ready for full-time duty in the rotation. Tim Wakefield returns...ready for full-time duty in the rotation! Lovely.

There are 144 games in the 1995 season. Methinks a one-game playoff is not a concern here, so there are 144 starts to distribute. Clemens made 23 starts in 1995. Mussina made 32. Maddux made 28. That is 83 combined starts. This leaves 61 starts for the others. Radke made 28 starts in 1995, Pettitte made 26, and Wakefield made 27. That is 81 starts, so I have to free up 20 starts somewhere. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, you actually CAN have too much pitching. Plus, this is not a problem that can be resolved by leaving one guy in AAA longer in 1995, then making him a full-timer in 1996. All 6 pitchers are also under contract for 1996. If I had known who I was going to draft ahead of time (I've been doing the drafts as I go, not really knowing who was available when, but knowing them when I saw them on the draft board), I would have had Clemens' contract expire after 1994, instead of 1996. Unfortunately, I didn't do that. I also do not have the same kind of confidence that I can reduce a starting pitcher's playing time in their youth and have them develop as planned that I do with a player like Ray Durham, Jason Giambi, or Johnny Damon. I think it's generally assuming that a young pitcher needs to learn how to attack MLB hitters, and to harness their varied stuff as they learn. This isn't quite the same level of an issue as it is for MLB hitters to learn how to hit MLB pitching, or at least I'm not convinced that it is quite as sensitive to playing time concerns in all cases.

I do have an obvious way out when it comes to "harnessing one's stuff." Given the nature of Tim Wakefield's repertoire, he isn't likely to be a worse pitcher down the road if he does get his time in during the 1995 season. The problem is that Wakefield's best year in his career is the 1995 season, so what's the point in having him if I don't take advantage of this season? League-average, innings-eating starting pitching is worth significantly less to me in this reality than it is to real teams in the real timeline.

There's also an obvious pair of options for raw performance, one for 1995, and one going forward. Brad Radke is the only pitcher with an ERA+ below 100 in 1995, so if I'm thinking about the now, he's the odd man out, and as a rookie, I can probably get away with giving him the fewest starts without clubhouse disruption. The problem is that from 1996-2000, I risk messing with the 5 straight seasons of very good, cost-controlled pitching that he will provide me. If we are looking forward in the 1996-onward realm, Tim Wakefield is only under my control through 1998, and he is clearly the inferior pitcher of the group from 1996-1998.

Then there is the "cost and time under contract" angle. Clemens (big, costly extension), and Mussina (5th year player) both end their contracts after 1996. Wakefield is through 1998, Maddux is through 1999, and both Radke and Pettitte are cost controlled through 2000. My next two potential starters in the pipeline, Derek Lowe and Kevin Millwood, are only part-time players in 1997. The guy that you had better damn well believe I am trading for arrives in 1998, as does Javier Vazquez.

My heart and wallet say find a way to dump Clemens. My rational mind and long-term roster projections say that Wakefield must go, at precisely the time when he has absolutely no trade value whatsoever. I could wait a year to trade Wakefield at the peak of his value if I thought I could throttle Radke's innings back without future damage to his production, but I think that is just one convenient assumption too many. The continued support of the fanbase, my winning ways (playoff revenues almost guaranteed every season), my relationship with "ownership", and the cost-controlled players on my roster (only Maddux, Clemens, Boggs, Gwynn, and Bagwell are making FA-priced deals, and I made 4 of those deals in the cheap days of the late 80s) mean that I do not need to dump Clemens to shed payroll, even I would love to trade him to some team in Ohio to banish him somewhere closer to home. Wakefield joins Shawn Green and Scott Cooper on the trade block.

Ok, now the bullpen, where I might actually have some room to maneuver. Greg McMichael, Paul Quantrill, and Ken Ryan remain from the 1994 bullpen. Scott Bankhead signs elsewhere for no compensation to me. Chris Howard is let go after his "warm body" year of 1994. This leaves 2 or 3 spots in the bullpen, preferably one of those going to a long man to take extra starts.

Historically, these spots were filled by trading Scott Cooper and Corey Bailey for Rheal Cormier and Mark Whitten, calling up Joe Hudson, and signing Mike Maddux as a cheap bullpen FA. Cooper and Bailey for Cormier (screw Whitten) seems like a decent enough move, but let's see what else is out there, and if I can get more with Cooper included with some combination of Green and/or Wakefield.

This is becoming a mouthful, so the preseason trade market is in a new post, coming up shortly.

Edited by JMDurron, 11 November 2010 - 02:50 PM.

[JMDurron]

So, I'm looking for destinations for potential trades of Shawn Green, Scott Cooper, and Tim Wakefield, for bullpen arms.

Since Shawn Green is my primary trade chip here, I'll start with his historical team of the period, the Toronto Blue Jays. Green would be a clear upgrade on at least one member of their OF rotation in Mike Huff. Seems like a match for Green, as one might expect. Ed Sprague is coming off of a poor year at 3B in 1994, and is merely slightly below average in 1995, so they might find some value in letting Scott Cooper compete for the job. Cooper has been a productive backup so far, and is still young enough to still have that fresh "just needs a chance to play" smell. Given that the Red Sox signed Wakefield more or less off the street historically in 1995, it's safe to say that his trade value around the league is nil, but I would still include him just to give him a shot at a career elsewhere.

The Blue Jays were not competitive in 1994, and were not competitive again in 1995, so they could presumably be convinced to give up some bullpen help. Since I'm giving up some value, I'm hoping to find someone who is young and could stick for a few seasons, or could be signed away from me as a Type A or B free agent. There really isn't anyone who meets the latter criteria, based on comp picks made in the 96 and 97 drafts. Old friend Mike Timlin, at age 29, jumps out as a potential 2-year acquisition of value. That wouldn't solve the 6th starter problem, but the Cooper-and-Bailey for Cormier deal is still out there. Shawn Green and a pitching lottery ticket for 2 years of a short reliever on a team that isn't going anywhere seems fair enough to me.

I trade Scott Cooper and Cory Bailey to the St Louis Cardinals for Rheal Cormier.
I trade Shawn Green and Tim Wakefield to the Toronto Blue Jays for Mike Timlin.

That's this year's roster apocalypse averted. Now to the rest of the offseason transactions of historical note.

I do not sign Erik Hanson, even though I'd love that supplemental draft pick in 1996, because he wouldn't sign with me as a long man, and I have more than enough starters already.

I do not trade for Luis Alicea. I do not trade for Jose Canseco (I will have to assume that this does not have a negative impact on the offensive level of certain Red Sox players going forward).

Including some midseason trades. I do not sign Troy O'Leary or trade for Rick Aguilera. I do not trade for Mike Stanton.

A key statistical note, and the 1995 season is next.

[JMDurron]

One potential weakness that we now run into with my use of OPS+ and ERA+ is the fact that they are adjusted for ballpark factors, and for comparison WITHIN a particular league's offensive/pitching context. They do not account for any sort of talent disparity between leagues. I think there is a general consensus that there is a talent disparity between the AL and NL today (blah blah, World Series, we know, it's not huge enough to guarantee sweeps every year), and that disparity has been in place to some degree for the last several years, but we have no reasonably reliable way to determine when that talent disparity started, or how much it grew over time. As such, I am choosing the post-strike season of 1995 as a semi-arbitrary point where I will begin making a slight adjustment to the OPS+ and ERA+ numbers of the players on my roster who played their historical seasons on a NL team.

There are two ways that I could go about doing this. The first is to make adjustments on a player-by-player basis, factoring in which pitchers might gain more from taking 1 out of every 9 lineup spots off, which hitters are more dependent on getting fastballs in fastball counts more often, the cumulative effect of ballpark factors within leagues/divisions, and so on. The other is to make just a general, universal adjustment across all players, and hope that the general effect averages out reasonably. I'm not particularly interested in getting down into the weeds of how and why the league talent disparity of variable size would or would not impact each individual player, so I am making a global adjustment. I will subtract 5 points of OPS+ or ERA+ from each NL position player or pitcher on my roster. Dominant players are dominant in any league, IMO, but this has a more significant impact on the types of average-ish players who might be more dependent on specific league contexts. It's not a perfect idea, but I can't ignore the talent gap indefinitely, and the strike year provides me as natural a break point as anything else does.

That said, onto the 1995 season!

1995 Position Players:

C - Darren Daulton over Mike Macfarlane (85 -> 96). John Flaherty (77) backs up, becoming the starter when Daulton goes down. Scott Hatteberg (159...in 2 games) backs up Flaherty when that happens.
1B - Jeff Bagwell over Mo Vaughn (144 -> 137). Jason Giambi (107) backs up.
2B - Tim Naehring over Luis Alicea (92 -> 123). Ray Durham (83) backs up.
SS - John Valentin (138). Naehring backs up with Durham at 2B.
3B - Wade Boggs (119). Naehring backs up with Durham at 2B.
LF - Tony Gwynn over Mike Greenwell (106 -> 132). Johnny Damon (97) backs up.
CF - Jim Edmonds over Lee Tinsley (96 -> 129). Lee Tinsley backs up.
RF - Ray Lankford over Troy O'Leary (116 -> 124). Damon/Tinsley backing up.
DH - Mo Vaughn over Jose Canseco (137 -> 144). Giambi backs up.

Phil Plantier is cut, since I sort of forgot about wanting Lee Tinsley to trade later. Flaherty/Hatteberg as backup C, Giambi as 1B/DH, Naehring/Durham on the rest of the IF, and Damon plus Tinsley in the OF.

1995 Starting Pitching Staff:

Mike Mussina (221.2/145)
Greg Maddux (209.2/257)
Brad Radke (181/91)
Andy Pettitte (175/111)
Roger Clemens (140/117)

Mussina and Maddux's IP totals are absolutely nuts for a strike-shortened season.

1995 Bullpen:

Greg McMichael (80.2/149)
Paul Quantrill * - See Note Below
Ken Ryan (32.2/153)
Mike Timlin (42/222)
Rheal Cormier (115/120) - 6th Starter

Paul Quantrill's 1995 merits some explanation. Historically, Quantrill was traded from the Red Sox to the Phillies during the 1994 season. The Phillies left him in the pen in 1994, but then they, and the Blue Jays in 1996, tried to make him into a starter. It didn't work out. I never even think about making him into a starter, but there is the small matter of figuring out what his line would be in the bullpen. He has a clear track record of success in the pen before before 1995, and after 1996, so I feel fully justified is using a projection based on my using him the way that he probably should have been used in those years. From 1992-1994, Quantrill averaged 80 IP of ERA+ 121 pitching, but there is some spot start work from 1993 mixed in there. From 1997-2005, when he was in the bullpen full time, he averaged 73 IP of ERA+ 135 relief per 162 games. I'll cut that IP down a bit for the shortened season and call it 65 IP. Quantrill's line in 1995 and 1996 is thus:

Paul Quantrill (65/135)

The real 1995 Red Sox won the AL East before losing to the Cleveland Indians in the ALDS. Even if this team has significant clubhouse issues due to having so many stars on it (it's possible, even though some of this might be mitigated by their collective youth, that also raises the chances of dumb mistakes and lack of knowing how to handle things), I feel that this team is pretty comfortably going to walk away with the division. They do so.

Thanks to the screwy Wild Card playoff seeding rules of 1995, the Red Sox originally got to face the Cleveland Indians in the ALDS, while the Mariners and Yankees fought for the right to lose to Cleveland in the ALCS. Things are different now, though, because the Yankees are without Wade Boggs and Andy Pettitte. The Yankees only beat out the California Angels for the 1995 Wild Card by 1 one, and I think it's safe to say that Boggs and Pettitte are worth a game over whoever would have replaced them. Thus, my Red Sox get the Mariners in the ALDS, while the Angels face the Indians (briefly).

My understanding is that since the Mariners and Angels were both playoff teams in 1995, due to the Yankees losing at least 2 games more than historically due to the absences of both Boggs and Pettitte, there would be no single-game playoff between the two teams. This is absolutely vital, because the only shot the Mariners have at my Red Sox is if Randy Johnson is able to start twice, which can't happen if there was a playoff game. I'm going with that interpretation unless otherwise corrected.

By ERA+, Randy Johnson was the best pitcher in the American League in 1995, and should be the most dominant possible playoff opponent to face. Sadly for the Mariners, the best pitcher in baseball in 1995 by ERA+ was Greg Maddux, who maintains that distinction even with my league adjustment. Maddux and Johnson duel, but the bullpens are equal and my lineup is vastly superior. Game 1 goes to extra innings, but the Red Sox triumph, and the rest of the series is mostly a formality.

As expected, the 1995 Indians crush the poor Angels. So the two best teams in baseball in 1995 clash in the ALCS. The Indians lineup is actually the equal of the Red Sox, with Omar Vizquel being the only weak link (assuming Alomar over Pena). The Red Sox have a slight edge in the rotation (if only Clemens was at the top of his game!), and the Indians have a similar edge in the bullpen. Ultimately, Orel Hershiser gets his revenge for the 1988 World Series, and the Indians triumph over the Red Sox.

The 1995 Atlanta Braves are still the best team in the NL, but without Greg Maddux, they are just no match for the 1995 Indians. Cleveland's run of futility ends in 1995.

The 1995 draft is next.

[JMDurron]

The 1995 Draft. Once again, I have 5 draft picks.

Historically, the Red Sox had two first round picks - #15 overall, and a supplemental pick for the loss of FA Damon Berryhill. They selected Andy Yount and Corey Jenkins with those pics.

I estimate that I have the 27th pick as my basic choice, as I finished 1994 with the best record in the league. Apparently there's some sort of forced league alternating thing that happens with the draft picks? I also have the #18 pick from the Mets (Saberhagen), the #26 pick from the Braves (Justice), and the corresponding supplemental picks. The Toronto Blue Jays picked Roy Halladay with the #17 overall pick in the 1995 Draft. I am slightly annoyed by this. Yes, I am that spoiled.

So, now I spend about an hour figuring out who to draft. Luckily for you, you're in a time dilation field, and it will only take seconds to read! Isn't science great?

Side note while I research - I've already given the Celtics the late-80s NBA on a platter, but I could undo it all for Boston area fans by drafting and signing the man taken in the 18th round by the Montreal Expos...Tom Brady. Ricky Williams was also drafted in the 8th round of this draft. I never knew this about either of them.

Apparently, good position players stopped hiding in the later rounds starting around 1994. Or, the ones that were good took forever to blossom after they came up.

With my first selection, I pick Russ Ortiz. Ortiz will arrive in 1998 and become a full-time player in 1999.

With my second selection, I pick Carlos Beltran. Beltran will arrive in 1998, and become a full time player in 1999.

With my third selection, I pick Dan Kolb. Kolb will arrive full-time in 1999.

With my first supplemental selection, I pick Brian Fuentes. Fuentes will arrive in 2001, and go full-time in 2002.

With my second supplemental selection, I pick Joe Nathan. Nathan will arrive in 1999 as a full-time 6th reliever at first.

The day is quickly approaching where I will not be able to avoid spending half of my time trying to make theoretical trades without the benefit of an automated "trading block" tool. I may end up grinding to a halt then, but we will see.

The 1996 roster moves post is next in the queue.

[JMDurron]

1996 Roster Moves (I'm going to keep changing the name of this post until it fits the content, damnit)

After last year's starting pitching and OF nightmare, it is now time for...Infield Madness.

But first, departures.

Wade Boggs is gone. After a sufficient number of convenient articles run about his off-the-field hijinks, I don't worry too much about the possibility of him accepting arbitration. He's incensed enough to think he can prove that he has some gas left in the tank. If Randy Velarde was a Type-A in the 1995/96 offseason, then so is Wade Boggs. The Yankees give him crazy money, but I do not collect two draft picks, or at least not first round picks. Kenny Rogers is also a Type-A, and the Yankees sign him away from Texas in the offseason. I have no way of estimating who trumps who for the sake of the Elias rankings, so I am forced to assume that the 31-year-old starting pitcher coming off a great season trumps a 38-year-old 3B who doesn't post large HR/RBI numbers, and therefore I collect only a single supplemental pick.

Ray Lankford's contract is also up. He has some very impressive, productive years ahead of him, but I have Jim Edmonds to man CF, Johnny Damon in need of playing time, and both Jermaine Dye and Carlos Beltran in the prospect pipeline. I can't justify a long-term deal at a position where I have such good depth, so even though it's not the best on-field move, I go with the wallet and prospect mongers and bid Lankford a pleasant farewell. He is offered and rejects arb as a Type A, and signs with the St Louis Cardinals...who have the 3rd overall pick in the 1996 draft, which is protected. Another compensation pick for me, no bonus pick.

Those are the free agent departures, trades and possible extensions (I have not decided yet) are to come later.

First, the position players.

At C, Darren Daulton is the starter, and ends up being a useless cripple in 1996, only playing 5 games. Luckily, 1996 is another mostly full season for John Flaherty, and Scott Hatteberg still needs some more playing time, but isn't ready to go full-time just yet. I'm covered here.

1B and DH combine to be a bit of a problem now. Mo Vaughn remains at DH, and plays a full season. Jeff Bagwell remains at 1B, and plays a full season. For these two, "full season" means that combined between the two of them, there is one game leftover between the two positions. The problem is that Jason Giambi played 140 games in 1996, and I seem to be out of places to put him. Or am I? In 1996, as bizarre as this sounds, Giambi played games at DH, RF, LF, 1B, and 3B. It boggles the mind, but I'll take it. Giambi gets to be my Bill Hall, and I thought it was going to suck choosing between his future and Mo Vaughn's present!

The rest of the IF gets a little bit of a shuffle. Ray Durham claims 2B as his own. Valentin stays at SS. Tim Naehring moves over the cover 3B. I'll talk about the backups in a few moments.

The OF is a reasonably simple, if somewhat unsatisfying affair. Tony Gwynn remains in LF. Jim Edmonds begins thoroughly making CF his bitch for years. This, unfortunately, leaves me with putting Johnny Damon's arm in RF. The range is more important, but the throws are still painful to watch.

The backups, on the other hand, are most thoroughly satisfying. Flaherty, then Hatteberg at C. Giambi gets to bore himself backing up 1B/DH, but can also apparently backup at 3B, LF, and (oh sweet Jesus) RF. I'll avoid that last one whenever possible, which should be often, because Jermaine Dye joins the roster for the first time. He can play all 3 OF positions, and doesn't merit full time play until 1999. That leaves only SS, which is backed up just fine with the callup of Nomar Garciaparra. Scott Rolen also makes his first appearance, and gets some time at 3B. Giambi pinch hits for Naehring and gets replaced by Rolen very, very often. There are some other loose ends to deal with, but that covers the significant pieces.

The pitching:

The starting rotation is entirely in place. Nobody left, and nobody new came up. Maddux, Mussina, Clemens, Pettitte, and Radke are all here. Next year is another issue, but I'll get to that later.

The bullpen is a tad more interesting. McMichael, Quantrill, and Timlin automatically remain from last season. Ryan and Cormier are included in historical deals, which I will address in a moment. Danny Graves is called up and joins the bullpen mix full-time. So I either have 4, or 6 slots locked up right now. Time to start dealing, and not dealing.

I do not sign Mike Stanley. Boy, am I sure glad I outbid NY for Tony Armas, Jr!

I do not sign Jamie Moyer.

I do not trade Rheal Cormier in a package for Wil Cordero. Cormier shall stay and be the long man/6th starter.

I do trade Ken Ryan, Lee Tinsley, and Glenn Murray for Heathcliff Slocumb.

So, the bullpen now includes McMichael, Quantrill, Timlin, Graves, Cormier, and Slocumb. That takes care of trades and signings of note.

Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina are both in the final years of their contracts. Millwood and Lowe are both due to arrive in 1997, but only as part-time pitchers. This means that I could use another starter for 1997. The obvious solution is to try to extend the cheaper of the two pitchers, Mussina. Unfortunately, Mussina is not particularly interested in a single-year extension, and I'm not interested in having him take a rotation spot in 1998. He also mentioned something about the outfield being too dark, which strikes me as odd, since the lighting out there is actually quite good. Oh well.

1996 Season is up next

EDIT - Typos

Edited by JMDurron, 09 February 2011 - 10:53 PM.

[JMDurron]

The 1996 Season

Position Players:

C: Darren Daulton only plays 5 games (86). So, really, John Flaherty over Mike Stanley (122 -> 90). Scott Hatteberg (63) backs up.
1B: Jeff Bagwell over Mo Vaughn (150 -> 173). Jason Giambi (109) backs up.
2B: Ray Durham over Jeff Frye (93 -> 95). Giambi backs up, via Tim Naehring.
SS: John Valentin (104). Nomar Garciaparra (83) backs up.
3B: Tim Naehring (103). Scott Rolen (85) backs up when Naehring needs a day off. Giambi backs up when Naehring is moving to 2B to spell Durham.
LF: Tony Gwynn over Mike Greenwell (94 -> 122). Giambi backs up.
CF: Jim Edmonds over Lee Tinsley (59 -> 137). If it seems odd that Tinsley started after being traded for Slocumb historically, it is. The Red Sox traded to get him back later during the season. Jermaine Dye (94) backs up via Johnny Damon.

RF merits some discussion. Neither Johnny Damon (73) nor Jermaine Dye are above-average offensive players at this stage in their careers. They are both defensively adequate in RF at this time, even though Johnny Damon's arm in RF is an admittedly horrible idea. Damon still got essentially full-time play in RF in 1996, with Dye getting part time work in RF and LF, but Giambi takes LF backup duty here. I am going to do my first regular platoon at a position, with Damon/Dye in RF. Damon will still get playing time in CF, as Edmonds only played in 114 games in 1996, so Damon can get his full time play while I maximize Dye's effectiveness, and at least give Damon days off when facing LHP. Dye only had an OPS+ of 94 overall, but has a sOPS of 120 against LHP in 1996. Damon still isn't good against RHP, but sOPS+ of 81 still beats the 73 overall, and it gives me an offensively averageish RF when put together. Dye/Damon PH for each other when one or the other is starting late in games against situational relievers, and when both are starting, Giambi PHs for Dye against though RHP, and lumbers around in RF for a couple of innings. It's not like this pitching staff allows a ton of BIP anyway.

So, RF: Johnny Damon (73 - *82*) vs RHP, Jermaine Dye (94 - *120*) vs LHP. Giambi backs up when the other two are already in the field and/or injured or needing a day off.

DH: Mo Vaughn over Jose Canseco (146 -> 150). Giambi backs up.

The bench:

Scott Hatteberg - C
Jason Giambi - DH/1B/3B/LF/RF
Nomar Garciaparra - SS
Scott Rolen - 3B
Jermaine Dye - RF

The Starting Rotation:

Greg Maddux (245/157)
Mike Mussina (243.1/103)
Roger Clemens (242.2/139) - He doesn't go 10-13 with this team behind him.
Brad Radke (232/114)
Andy Pettitte (221/129)

I am now busting out my best evil cackle. Good timing to get the whole pitching staff rolling, as the slumbering Giant of the AL East is supposed to awaken now.

The Bullpen:

Greg McMichael (86.2/132)
Heathcliff Slocumb (83.1/168)
Mike Timlin (56.2/138)
Paul Quantrill (65/135) - see 1995 season for explanation
Rheal Cormier (159.2/98) - 6th starter. A very boring job on this team. Lots of mop-up duty with blowouts and short relievers all around him, though.
Danny Graves (29.2/109)

This is, essentially, a flawless team. I have one position with below-average production, C, but my defense there is strong. I know this because Greg Maddux says so. I have only two positions that are roughly average, in RF with the platoon, and with my long man/6th starter. 243.1 IP is not average, even with an ERA+ of "only" 103 from Mussina.

The 1996 Yankees are known mostly for two things - fan interference in the 1996 ALCS against Baltimore, and starting the late-90s Yankees dynasty. People tend to forget that they only went 92-70 in the regular season, since obviously people tend to forget things that are completely irrelevant when a team wins the World Series. They were a good team, but they were not a great team, like the 98 iteration of the team, they were a good team that got the job done. "Good" is not going get the job done in the AL East in 1996, not with my roster as is.

Of course, my roster does not stay "as is" for the entire season. One thing I have been quite fortunate with is that I have not had guys really revolting over pitching/bullpen roles, thanks to my reliance on young players who are trained in the Jamesean bullpen philosophy in the minors, or veterans who are paid adequately to deal with it, but share the overall high-visibility duties (Eckersley/Smith). This time, though, I have a problem with Heathcliff Slocumb. He was the clear closer on the 1995 Phillies. He was the clear closer on the historical 1996 Red Sox, and was very good at it. Greg McMichael is my incumbent, very good closer. Slocumb is slightly better in 1996, but not by so much that Joe Morgan (who is also quite used to how to deploy the bullpens that I give him at this stage of his managerial career) will make him the lone closer, he and McMichael share the duties, much as Eckersley and Lee Smith did. Well, that's not good enough for Slocumb. He's getting the job done on the field, but he's a major clubhouse disruption, and there is some bleed-through effect on the team's overall performance. By that, I mean that we are only leading the rest of the division by 5 games near the July trading deadline, as opposed to the 15 games or so that this team "should" be ahead by. Mike Timlin's attempts to encourage him to make therapeutic noises by banging things with sticks in the bullpen are in vain. I am going to have to get rid of Slocumb, and call up somebody to take the leftover bullpen innings.

Historically, the Red Sox traded Heathcliff Slocumb to the Seattle Mariners at the trade deadline in 1997 for Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe. In 1997, the Mariners had Norm Charlton at closer, and he was not getting the job done, and they were competing for the division title that they eventually won. In 1996, Norm Charlton is adequate, but not so good that the Mariners would refuse an upgrade to Slocumb, who truly is an upgrade with his 1996 performance. The 1996 Mariners only finished 4.5 games behind the Texas Rangers historically, so I think it's reasonable for them to be interested in a prospects-for-closer trade for them to take a shot at overtaking the Rangers in this timeline. So, I have the asset, and I have the trade partner.

Of course, there's a catch. I drafted Derek Lowe. I do need Jason Varitek with both Flaherty and Daulton nearing the end of their contracts. I also know that Solcumb is worth 2 prospects to the Mariners, or at least he was in 1997. I can't pry anything of particular value from the Mariners to add to Varitek in this deal, but I think I can snag another prospect who was originally traded away by the Mariners in September of 1996 for a spare part. Thus, at the 1996 trade deadline:

I trade Heathcliff Solcumb to the Seattle Mariners for prospects Jason Varitek and David Arias. David Arias changes his name, which the Mariners apparently recorded incorrectly (or at least not according to his preferences) when they signed him as an amateur FA back in 1992. He shall henceforth be known as David Ortiz. Varitek will "arrive" in 1997, and go full time in 1999. More on that in 1997. David Ortiz arrives in 1997, and goes full time in 2000.

Now I have to fill in the bullpen slot vacated by Slocumb. In a transaction that I somehow missed in the offseason (honestly, just didn't see it in the list), I signed FA Rich Garces.

Rich Garces (44/104)

Historically, the 1996 Red Sox finished 3rd in the AL East, 7 games back of the Yankees, and 3 back of the WC-winning Orioles. My 1996 Red Sox win the AL East handily. But, who takes the Wild Card? Historically, the Orioles took the WC with 88 wins, 4 games back of the Yankees. The Yankees are now without Andy Pettitte, who was by far their best pitcher in 1996. The Orioles are also without their best pitcher, Mike Mussina. The rest of the Orioles rotation lacked a single other above-average starter. The Yankees did have Kenny Rogers, Dwight Gooden, Jimmy Key, and a hurt but effective when pitching David Cone. The Orioles has the better offense, but ultimately I think the lack of Mussina hurts them more than the lack of Pettitte hurts the Yankees. The Yankees finish ahead of the Orioles...but is that good enough? The 1996 Orioles only finished 2.5 games ahead of...the 1996 Seattle Mariners for the Wild Card. The Mariners now have Heathcliff Slocumb's career year in their bullpen, at no cost to their active 1996 roster. The Mariners features the best lineup in the AL in 1996, and got a slight upgrade to their 7th-best pitching staff. The current unbalanced schedule setup was not yet implemented in 1996, that came in 2001, so being in a division with the Red Sox and Orioles does not end the Yankees' hopes. Ultimately, it comes down to just making an educated guess, and I'm going to arbitrarily go with the team that ended up winning the World Series that year. The Yankees take the AL Wild Card over the Mariners by a nose.

My Red Sox dispatch the 1996 Texas Rangers in the ALDS in 3 lopsided games. The Yankees have the misfortune of drawing the 1996 Cleveland Indians, and do not have the pitching to compete. So the 1996 ALCS is a rematch of 1995, with the two best teams in baseball facing off. This time, my entire rotation is healthy and excellent, and Mike Mussina is the odd man out of the 4-man playoff rotation instead of Brad Radke. The bullpens are evenly matched, but the Red Sox bullpen gets leads to hold onto, the Indians' pen does not. Onto the World Series!

The poor Braves. I really do keep screwing them. They are without Maddux and McMichael again, but now also lack Jermaine Dye. They still win the NL East and make the postseason, but fall to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers squeak past the Cardinals into the World Series, but don't have the starting pitching to hang with the Red Sox. Gosh, it looks like somebody kept the wrong Martinez brother. Morons. The Red Sox win the World Series in 1996. Delino DeShields goes hitless in the series, and makes 4 errors in the 5 games.

The 1996 draft is to come.

Edited by JMDurron, 18 November 2010 - 10:25 PM.

[JMDurron]

1996 Draft

The Red Sox originally had 2 1st round picks in the 1996 draft. The regular pick (26th overall), was used on Josh Garrett. The supplemental pick for the loss of FA Erik Hansen was used on Chris Reitsma.

I have 3 picks. The regular 1st round pick, which I estimate to be 26th overall, and compensation picks for losing Wade Boggs and Ray Lankford.

With my 1st pick, I select Roy Oswalt. Oswalt will appear as a full-timer in 2001.

With my first supplemental pick, I select Marcus Giles. Giles will appear in 2001, and become a full-timer in 2003.

With my second supplemental pick, I select Kevin Gregg. Gregg will appear part time in 2003, and full time in 2004.

[Pyro35f]

These posts have rapidly become one of my favorite parts of SOSH. Very entertaining. Keep up the good work!

[JMDurron]

Looking at Friday for new posts.

[JMDurron]

1997 Roster Moves

Offseasons don't get much more involved than this one.

First, several familiar faces are leaving.

The first departure is Tim Naehring. I don't offer him arbitration, because he just might take it, and there is nowhere left in the IF to put him.

Another IF departure is Mo Vaughn. At age 28, he is offered, and rejects arbitration. He is a Type A. He signs with the Angels 2 years ahead of schedule, but the Angels have the 3rd overall pick in the draft, so I only get the supplemental 1st round pick for him.

2/5 of the starting rotation departs as well. The first and most obvious departure is Roger Clemens. I know he's not in his twilight, but I actually do have TOO MUCH STARTING PITCHING, and he's expensive. Plus, I don't actually know how much his steroid use influenced his later numbers, obviously they were a factor, but if his departure from Boston was somehow instrumental in forming the mindset that led to the historical renewed work ethic and PED abuse, I can't not have him leave and have any kind of idea what to do with his stat line going forward. Plus, I'm pretty sure he's a sociopath, so good riddance on a personal level. He signs with the Blue Jays, who have the 5th overall pick, so I only get the supplemental selection again.

Mike Mussina also departs. He signs with the Baltimore Orioles, who look very much to be a contender in 1997, for a 4-year deal. I get the 22nd pick in the 1st round of the 1997 draft, and a supplemental pick.

Positional Roster Issues

At C, I have a bit of a problem. Daulton, Flaherty, and Hatteberg all play essentially full seasons at C in 1997. This is Daulton's "last gasp" year that I extended him for to begin with. Flaherty is Greg Maddux's binky, although I don't plan on keeping him over the long run anyway. Hatteberg is the bridge to Varitek that I want to keep until Varitek is ready to go full-time in 1999. Hatteberg is young enough to not rock the boat, and his career production is not so impressive that I am worried about damaging him via burying him in AAA for most of the year. That still leaves me with Daulton and Flaherty. Now, Flaherty has been able to get his historical playing time in 1995 and 1996 thanks to injuries to Daulton, who now comes to Spring Training ready to go and looking fairly healthy. Flaherty sees this, and I think I can get away with saying that he requests a trade to another club where he can get a fair shot at being the starter. Since it is Flaherty's request, I'm betting that Maddux won't revolt, even if Hatteberg catches him, so long as he's not stuck with Daulton. So, I will look for trade options with Flaherty.

Jeff Bagwell remains at 1B. Ray Durham remains at 2B. Nomar Garciaparra takes over at SS over John Valentin, who now has nowhere to go with Durham at 2B, and Scott Rolen replacing Naehring at 3B. At age 30, I'm not sure how gracefully Valentin will handle this. Valentin has proven that he can play 2B, SS, and 3B, and would presumably be able to adapt to backup duty at 1B as well if necessary. Let's see how many games would be available for him.

Jeff Bagwell plays 162 games again in 1997. Durham plays 155. Nomar plays 153. Rolen plays 156. So that's a whopping total of 22 games for someone else to start, compared to Valentin's 143 historically. He will be gone after this season, so I can live with him being an annoyance/distraction in the clubhouse in exchange for his versatility, but I'll try to see if there's something that I could trade him for later on.

The OF is blissfully unchanged from a year ago. Gwynn in LF, Edmonds in CF, Damon/Dye in RF. Giambi still played a number of games in LF in 1997, so he can back up Gwynn to give Valentin some DH starts.

The rotation just lost two of its top starters. Fortunately, the 3 "other guys" are Greg Maddux, Andy Pettitte, and Brad Radke. Kevin Millwood is ready to contribute, but only as a part-timer. Derek Lowe is also called up, but is unconvincing as a starting pitching candidate. Lowe only becomes serviceable as a starter in 1999, so I'd like to avoid throwing him out there right now. Millwood can't take a full year's load, but he can work with fellow callup Jeff Suppan to give me the combined innings. This still leaves me with a starting rotation slot to be filled, possibly via trading Flaherty and Valentin.

Greg McMichael, Paul Quantrill, Danny Graves, and Rich Garces remain from the 1996 bullpen. Keith Foulke is called up to join the game. Rheal Cormier is allowed to depart. Mike Timlin was offered arbitration so he could depart after 1996 and net me a draft pick, but he surprised me by accepting the offer. If I'm stuck with him anyway, I decide to sign him to a 2-year deal through 1998.

So, the lineup and bullpen are fine, but bench is a question mark and my rotation is short one starter. Without Jeff Frye or Mike Stanley, I just can't let Valentin go for depth reasons, as he can cover the entire IF. He gets to be my Bill Hall, and if he doesn't like it, I have to rely on Joe Morgan to keep him from being a distraction. This leaves me with a backup (maybe starting) catcher to try to use to find a starting pitcher. You can imagine what kind of starter I can expect to get in exchange for Flaherty, so I trade him to the Oakland A's for...John Wasdin. I hang my head in shame, but it's the best I can do. The A's accept Flaherty to fill the void left by Terry Steinbach. Waiver Wire find Butch Henry will also get some starts.

The 1997 Season is next.

[JMDurron]

The 1997 Season.

Position Players:

C: Darren Daulton over Scott Hatteberg (103 -> 116). Hatteberg backs up, and catches Maddux
1B: Jeff Bagwell over Mo Vaughn (152 -> 163). John Valentin (124) backs up.
2B: Ray Durham over John Valentin (124 -> 91). Valentin backs up.
SS: Nomar Garciaparra (123). Valentin backs up.
3B: Scott Rolen over Tim Naehring (117 -> 116). Valentin backs up.
LF: Tony Gwynn over Wil Cordero (93 -> 151). Giambi backs up.
CF: Jim Edmonds over Darren Bragg (87 -> 123). Damon backs up.
RF: Johnny Damon/Jermaine Dye over Troy O'Leary (115 -> 88/69 raw, 92/111 if their splits hold up). They are their own backups.
DH: Jason Giambi over Reggie Jefferson (113 -> 126). Valentin backs up.

So it turns out I left the DH off the 1996 team. That is now fixed.

The Bench:

Hatteberg - C
Valentin - 1B/2B/SS/3B/DH
Jermaine Dye - RF

There are random guys like Rudy Pemberton around when I need a warm body, they aren't really vital to the exercise.

Note on Jason Varitek: He played 1 game in 1997. 1. I am not calling him up for one damn game, and in context, I'm just treating 1998 as his first appearance.

The Rotation:

Andy Pettitte (240.1/156)
Brad Radke (239.2/120)
Greg Maddux (232.2/184) - I guess he likes Hatteberg
Kevin Millwood (51.1/104)
Jeff Suppan (112.1/82)

Since they are picking up more starts than historically would have been available, I need to see how Wasdin and Henry did in the rotation as opposed to in the bullpen.

John Wasdin was worse as a starter than as a reliever in 1997, so his (124.2/106) becomes roughly a (124.2/90). 7 starts is a small sample size to go on, but...it's John Wasdin. Butch Henry was actually awesome in his 5 starts and mediocre in the bullpen, but I'll assume that since he was good overall, the starter performance would have normalized, so he keeps his (84.1/133). Any significant pro-starting adjustment here would make Butch Henry a legit #4 starter in the postseason, and that just doesn't pass the smell test with me.

John Wasdin (124.2/90)
Butch Henry (84.1/133)

The bullpen:

Greg McMichael (87.2/133)
Paul Quantrill (88/234) - Um, well hello there.
Danny Graves (26/83)
Mike Timlin (72.2/141)
Keith Foulke (73.1/67)
Rich Garces (13.2/104) - He gets more innings in this reality, same overall line.
Derek Lowe (16/141)

Wasdin essentially is the alternate 4th starter with Millwood. Henry is the alternate 5th starter with Suppan. Whichever one is not starting is effectively the long man/6th starter in the bullpen.

Historically, the 1997 Red Sox finished 4th in the AL East, 20 games behind the Baltimore Orioles. This is probably the hardest division race to call, because there are 2 non-Red Sox teams in the AL East in 1997 that were both 95+ game winners. The Orioles won 98 games, and I have not screwed with their roster significantly now that they have Mussina. One thing worth noting is that they were 4 games over their pythag record, so perhaps my Red Sox smack around some of their "luck"? The 97 Orioles only went 5-7 against the Red Sox historically, so it doesn't seem to make much sense to adjust them downward on that front. I'll put them around their pythag record of 94 wins.

The 1997 Yankees, on the other hand, have a major problem. Namely, that their best pitcher was Andy Pettitte (I forget that he was so awesome back in the mid-90s, my brain defaults to "miraculously above average and durable" when I think of him due to recent history), and he's mine now. They won 96 games historically, with a pythag record 4 games better than that. They also went 8-4 against a bad Red Sox team, and they don't get that this time around. I'll say that the pythag and Red Sox records wash each other out, but that no Pettitte is worth about 4 wins (their 4th-7th starters were not impressive, and now 3/5 of their rotation are made up of those guys), so they'll be around 92 wins on the season.

Ultimately, I'm guessing that my Red Sox are a ~100 win team in a late 80s-early 90s crap AL East, but only around 95 games in a tough division like the 1997 AL East. That said, I think that the lineup and top 3 in the rotation all being healthy is enough to take the AL East by a single game, so I'm winning the AL East again.

The 1997 Mariners and Indians still win their divisions. Historically, the Mariners beat the Orioles, and the Indians beat the Yankees in the ALDS. I don't know why the team with the best record (Orioles) was forced to play the better division winner (Mariners) under the old playoff seeding rules, but I'll obey them here. Baltimore is the Wild Card here, so they take on the Indians while I get the Mariners.

The 1997 Mariners had the best offense in the league, a solid top 3 in the rotation, and a bullpen that made trading Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb seem reasonable at the time. Oddly enough, they also added Mike Timlin for the stretch run. Of course, in this timeline, my lineup is clearly superior, and my Top 3 of Maddux, Pettitte, and Radke trump Randy Johnson, Jeff Fassero, and Jamie Moyer. I am vulnerable in the bullpen, with a few pitchers who will be good not doing all that well in 1997, but the Mariners lack the ability to hang with me in any postseason playoff duels. The Red Sox beat the Mariners in 4 games.

The Orioles avoid their historical fate, and escape the ALDS with a win over a surprisingly mediocre 1997 Indians squad. So it's a Red Sox - Orioles 1997 ALCS. Now the two flaws in my roster, the rotation outside of the top 3 and the bullpen depth, are brought to bear. With the prospect of Millwood/Suppan/Wasdin/Henry pitching postseason games, Morgan goes with a 3-man rotation. This is perfectly reasonable, but the problem is that more innings over the course of the series end up going to the bullpen, and one of them is always going to have a bad day, and the Orioles seem to keep finding the reliever having a bad day. Their rotation 1-4 is solid enough to give their starters full rest, and they win the ALCS in 6 games. Their rotation 1-4 and bullpen 1-5 was just too strong to get past in a longer postseason series. They would have been meat in the ALDS, with only 3 starters to face, but the longer series defeats the Red Sox. Oh, Mussina, if only I had extended you through 1997...

The Orioles face the 1997 Marlins, who are not given the benefit of key bullpen and defensive miscues by a mediocre World Series opponent, and the Baltimore Orioles are your 1997 World Champs.

The 1997 draft is yet to come.

[JMDurron]

The 1997 Draft

Historically, the 1997 Red Sox had two first round picks - the standard 1st round pick at #17, and a compensation pick due to the departure of Roger Clemens. With those picks, they selected John Curtice and Mark Fischer.

This time, I have 2 first round picks, #22 from the Orioles due to Mike Mussina, and the standard #30 due to winning the World Series in 1996. I also have three compensation picks, 1 each for Mo Vaughn, Roger Clemens, and Mike Mussina. So I have 5 picks. I hope this was a good draft, because I'm getting rather tired of drafting relief pitchers.

With the #22 pick, I select Tim Hudson. Hudson will appear full-time in 1999.

With the #30 pick, I select Michael Young. Young first appears in 2000 (in 2 games, we'll see about that), and goes full-time in 2001.

With my first supplemental pick, I select Randy Wolf. Wolf will arrive full-time in 1999.

With my second supplemental pick, I select Orlando Hudson. Hudson will appear in 2002, then go full-time in 2003.

With my third supplemental pick, I select Scot Shields. Shields will first appear in 2001, and go full-time in 2002. He may be a reliever, but awesome is awesome, and I'll take his early Angels career, thank you very much.

It is becoming very clear that, at some point in the early 21st century, I am going to have to make some deals using pitchers and/or middle IFers to come up with corner IFers and OFers. I've been trying to avoid the trade market, since it's

A) Somewhat unfair using perfect future knowledge
B) A real pain in the ass to try to come up with ideas that don't completely rape the team I'm making the trade to
C) Significantly harder to try to figure out how well the teams I trade with might do on the field in the years where they are impacted by the deals

Up next: 1998 roster moves. Or, as I like to call it, PEDRO TIME.

Edited by JMDurron, 20 November 2010 - 09:32 AM.

[JMDurron]

1998 Roster Moves.

I trade Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr. to the Montreal Expos for Pedro Martinez.

That will be my easiest decision to make with the pitching staff, but first, the departures.

Darren Daulton retires.

Tony Gwynn also departs, after 16 seasons in a Red Sox uniform. He is coming off a fantastic 1997 campaign, but is entering his age 37 season. Fortunately, GMs around the league haven't quite figured out the high value of 1st round picks, and Gwynn's production has been awesome enough that a team desperate to make a splash (like, say, the 1998 Padres) will go ahead and sign him, so I offer him arbitration. Realizing that he is not wanted, and would most likely see reduced playing time with Damon and Dye coming into their own, he rejects arb and signs with San Diego. The Padres had the 9th pick in the 1998 draft, so I only get a compensation pick out of his departure.

John Valentin also departs, in spite of my desire to keep him as my super-sub all over the IF. He's not interested in being a backup player at age 31. He is a type B, so I get another compensation pick when he signs with the Texas Rangers.

Paul Quantrill also departs. In spite of his excellent performance after the past few years, he does not have the counting stats for Type-A status, so I only get a compensation pick when he signs with the Blue Jays. Of course, the Blue Jays had a protected pick anyway, so that's basically irrelevant.

Jeff Suppan is lost to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Expansion Draft.

The Position Players:

Scott Hatteberg gets promoted to 1st string C. Jason Varitek is called up for the backup duties. Yes, I have a position where both the starter and backup are actually the same as on the historical Red Sox. Bagwell, Durham, Nomar, and Rolen all remain around the IF, but I now have absolutely no depth behind them. More on that in a bit.

Giambi remains at DH, with young David Ortiz getting some time in as well (he got a minuscule appearance in 1997, that I honestly forgot to mention but am not going to go back and fix over a whole 15 games) as the backup.

It's time to make some decisions in the OF. Just relating to 1998, Jim Edmonds is the no-brainer incumbent in CF. Boy, do his catches ever make the media, and therefore the fans, happy. With Gwynn gone, Johnny Damon and Jermaine Dye can finally each have their own OF position! Plus, Carlos Beltran is called up to join the roster. So my OF is in awesome shape, right?

Well, not really. Edmonds is both a full-time and high-production player in 1998. No problems there. Damon is a full-time, average-production player (literally, OPS+ of 100) in 1998, but at least his youthful range brings significant defensive value, even if his arm makes me want to relegate him to LF, Ellsbury-style. The problem is that Jermaine Dye is both part-time (60 games) and lousy (OPS+ of 56) in 1998, and Beltran only gets a cup of coffee workload, with 14 games played. Not only do I not have a backup OF, I basically don't have a starting corner OF, either in RF or LF, whichever one Damon does not occupy. Since I never signed Jamie Moyer, I never had him to trade for Darren Bragg, so I don't even have a middling "just hold the line for the year" backup OF.

I do have the historical option of signing Darren Lewis, but I may have a looming excess of pitching that I could use to trade for a superior solution, so let's hold that thought in reserve for now.

The Starting Rotation:

I believe you've all heard of Pedro Martinez. Historically, he was joined by Wakefield, Saberhagen, Steve Avery, and a cast of dozens in the 1998 rotation. Now, he joins a rotation that already features Greg Maddux, Andy Pettitte, Brad Radke, and Kevin Millwood, who is now ready for a more regular workload in 1998. This is both awesome and convenient.

Well...except I have some prospects who are ready to start now. Javier Vazquez and Russ Ortiz both arrive in 1998. Ortiz only requires part-time innings, but Vazquez worked a full load in 1998. Neither of them were particularly effective in 1998.

The first thing to check is how many starts there are available for my rookies. Pedro made 33 starts in 1998. Maddux made 34. Pettitte made 32. Radke also made 32. Millwood made 29. That's 160 out of 162 games. This is as awesome as it is annoying in my current circumstances.

There's also the issue of contracts. None of my current starters are due to leave after 1998, since I obviously give Pedro Martinez his historical deal through 2004 (2004 being a team option year). Maddux is due to leave after 1999, Pettitte and Radke after 2000. So this is a long-term problem that can really only be solved by trading someone. This is going to require some major roster shopping, since I basically have 1 or 2 major starting pitchers (or significant pitching prospects) to use as trade bait, and I already have needs for IF depth, and either a starting corner OF (Dye as backup), or a platoon partner for Dye AND a backup OF. Let's see if I have any other needs in the bullpen.

Greg McMichael, Mike Timlin, Danny Graves, Keith Foulke, Rich Garces, and Derek Lowe are already on the bullpen depth chart. Bob Howry is called up to join them. Methinks I have no bullpen needs.

Up next - 1998 Trade Market

[JMDurron]

1998 Trade Moves

So, I can't avoid being a major player in a purely theoretical trade market any longer. I have 7 starting pitchers. All require full-time work in 1998, although Russ Ortiz looks to have been the closest to a 6th starter type in 1998. I might have some flexibility there. I have no reason to assume that any of them can transition to full-time bullpen work, then back to the rotation in later years. Even better, I have two MORE starters coming up in 1999, with still zero veterans leaving, as Tim Hudson and Randy Wolf will join the party. I should have the starts/innings to play with in 1999, but at the very minimum, I need to move 3 starters over the next two seasons, and at least two of them need to go now.

So, I can try to move two of the prospects, two of the veterans, or one of each. I will operate under the assumption that my "prospects", Javier Vazquez and Russ Ortiz, will have more appeal to a team out of contention than to a contender. Millwood still counts here, since he has only seen part-time work in 1997 so far. Obviously, a contender will be more likely to give me good value for one of my veterans. Among the vets, Pedro Martinez is untouchable. Greg Maddux has 2 years remaining on his contract, and will be the first among the current starters to depart. I think I need his awesomeness to hold off the Yankees for the next couple of years, but I'll leave that door open. Andy Pettitte and Brad Radke are also established pitchers in their 4th years of service.

From a standpoint of pure performance while under my control, the most expendable pieces are Kevin Millwood and Russ Ortiz, followed by Randy Wolf in 1999 (drafted him in June of 97, can't trade him yet in Dec-Feb 98). This means I am probably looking for a team that could use some young starters to build/rebuild around.

My needs are OF, backup IF, and possibly backup OF, although I can live with Darren Lewis if necessary. Jermaine Dye is also expendable if I get a good enough OF, as Beltran will be ready to start in 1999, and I might just extend Jim Edmonds instead of letting him depart, since I've had so little luck in drafting OFers lately.

So, my biggest need is an OFer, and I need to try to find a team with a good veteran OF who will depart before they contend again. I just need a 1-year stopgap, so I take a peek at who netted their teams draft pick compensation in the 1999 draft. I find what looks to be a perfect solution in the person of Brian Jordan, currently of the St Louis Cardinals.

The Cardinals meet my criteria of a team that is not really in contention, from 1997-1999, they finished 11, 19, and 21.5 games out of first, so they should not feel like they are "just a piece away." Jordan is a free agent after the 1998 season, and is coming off an injury-shortened 1997 campaign, in which he only played 47 games, with an OPS+ of 55. They look to be trying to build a rotation for the future around young Matt Morris. Perfect! Even better, they have a rookie IFer who doesn't look to crack the starting lineup for the next couple of years, and he can cover 2B, SS, and 3B! I have my eye fixed on young Placido Polanco. I will have to use both pitchers and Dye to get this done, but I can live with that.

I trade Kevin Millwood, Russ Ortiz, and Jermaine Dye to the St Louis Cardinals in exchange for Brian Jordan and Placido Polanco. No more roster problems!

There is still, however, a bit of a long-term concern in the OF. 1998 is Jim Edmonds' last season under contract. I know that he is heading for a down 1999 season, but his production from 2000-2005 at a premium defensive position is worth shelling out for. Given Fenway's dimensions, I don't feel bad at all about eventually sticking a future CF like Beltran in RF, while hiding Damon's arm in LF. I waited until now just in case I found something in the draft to prevent this from being necessary, but the time is now to extend Jim Edmonds. I get a slight discount from buying him out a year before FA, but not a huge one. Of course, I don't need a huge one, because my only players currently on post-FA extended contracts are Jeff Bagwell, Greg Maddux, Mike Timlin, and Pedro Martinez. Timlin is making chump change, and Bagwell and Maddux were signed to long-term deals in a much lower salaried era. There is plenty of room in the payroll to pay Jim Edmonds what he is worth through 2005, his age 35 season. There's no discount, but nor is there any "outbid everybody else" premium to pay.

I sign Darren Lewis as the 4th OFer.

Up next - the 1998 season

[JMDurron]

The 1998 Season.

Position Players

C: Scott Hatteberg (112). Jason Varitek (83) backs up.
1B: Jeff Bagwell over Mo Vaughn (153 -> 153). David Ortiz (111) backs up.
2B: Ray Durham over Mike Benjamin (76 -> 114). Placido Polanco (67) backs up.
SS: Nomar Garciaparra (140). Polanco backs up.
3B: Scott Rolen over John Valentin (101 -> 139) Polanco backs up.
LF: Johnny Damon over Troy O'Leary (99 -> 100). Darren Lewis (86) backs up.
CF: Jim Edmonds over Darren Lewis (86 -> 123). Lewis backs up.
RF: Brian Jordan over Darren Bragg (99 -> 134). Lewis backs up
DH: Jason Giambi over Reggie Jefferson (128 -> 130). Ortiz backs up.

Bench:

Jason Varitek - C
David Ortiz - 1B, DH
Placido Polanco - 2B, SS, 3B
Darren Lewis - LF, CF, RF
Carlos Beltran - LF, CF, RF (cup of coffee late call-up)

Rotation:

Pedro Martinez (233.2/163)
Greg Maddux (251/182)
Andy Pettitte (216.1/104)
Brad Radke (213.2/111)
Javier Vazquez (172.1/69) - ick

Bullpen:

Mike Timlin (79.1/157)
Derek Lowe (123/117) - 6th starter
Danny Graves (81.1/126)
Greg McMichael (68/98)
Keith Foulke (65.1/111)
Bob Howry (54.1/141)
Rich Garces (46/142)

It's important to keep in mind that one thing my organization emphasizes from Rookie ball to the MLB level with young relievers is that they have whatever role their pitching earns them in a given year, there are no "closers until they leave." This gives Joe Morgan the ability to go to Mike Timlin quickly when Greg McMichael struggles early in the year. I can't preemptively make the switch without McMichael being pissed, but since everyone in the pen other than Timlin is a product of my farm system, and he benefits from it, there are no waves in the clubhouse (or the what ones there are get muted by Morgan's "Magic") when the move is made to Timlin.

I wish I knew how good Brian Jordan was defensively (I vaguely remember positive reviews of his arm), otherwise I could say that this might be the most defensively strong group I've ever assembled. The young Nomar can overcome his technique issues with range and freak athleticism, and Hatteberg/Varitek is a significant defensive upgrade over Daulton/Hatteberg. Greg Maddux weeps with joy.

Historically, the 1998 Red Sox finished 2nd in the AL East, winning 92 games! They still finished 22 games behind the New York Yankees. The Red Sox then lost in the ALDS to Cleveland, 3 games to 1. Clearly, my Red Sox are superior to the historical team, and the 98 Yankees are somewhat reduced via the absence of Andy Pettitte. However, Pettitte essentially was a league-average innings eater in 1998, so whatever 5th guy of the street the Yankees hired, if whoever it is stayed healthy, would probably have had a similar W-L record with that awesome lineup behind him. All the Yankees' 5th guy would have to do is be better than Javier Vazquez in 1998, and that's not hard. In spite of all the upgrades, and the Pettitte factor, the 98 Yankees are simply too good to not win the AL East. For the first time since 1981, my Red Sox lose the division to the Yankees, but still claim the Wild Card.

The Red Sox still face the 1998 Cleveland Indians in the ALDS, while the Yankees take on the Angels, who beat out the Texas Rangers behind the early addition of 1B Mo Vaughn instead of Cecil Fielder. How nice for them, the Yankees sweep them instead of Texas. The Indians are not good enough to take on my 1998 Red Sox, and they go down in 4 games. Thus, the ALCS features the clash of the two best teams in baseball, by a significant margin.

Things are evened out between the two squads in a playoff series, as both Javier Vazquez and the Yankees 5th starter are removed from the equation. David Wells is no match for Pedro Martinez in Game 1, and the Red Sox bullpen barely staves off a furious comeback by the Yankees lineup. In a clash of former teammates, David Cone outlasts Greg Maddux in Game 2, and the Red Sox lineup has no answers for Mariano Rivera. Back in Boston, Andy Pettitte allows a freakish, pop fly HR to Scott Brosius, and the Yankees ride a late rally to victory. Radke pitches well, and Hideki Irabu is a dish best served often to the Red Sox lineup, as the Red Sox win Game 4 in a rout. Pedro Martinez and David Wells duel for 9 innings in Game 5, giving way to the bullpens in extras. Derek Lowe and Ramiro Mendoza proceed to mimick the starters this until the 12th, when a mental mistake on an IF grounder by Lowe leads to a Yankees run, and Mariano Rivera gets another save. Maddux bests Cone in Game 6, and Mike Timlin holds the line in the 9th to force a 7th game. El Duque throws 7 shutout innings against Pettitte in Game 7, who allows a single run. The bullpens proceed to alternate blowing the lead, until Tino Martinez hooks a cheap HR into the RF stands of Yankee Stadium against Timlin to send the Yankees to the World Series.

The Yankees then proceed to rape the San Diego Padres in the World Series, claiming their 21st World Championship. Keep in mind that in this timeline, the Yankees never won in 1977, 1978, or 1996, while they did still win in 1981. 1999, 2000, and 2009 have not yet happened. For those keeping score, it's Yankees 21, Red Sox 15.

The 1998 Draft is Next.

[JMDurron]

The 1998 Draft

Historically, the Red Sox had their standard 1st round pick, #12 overall, and they selected Adam Everett.

My 1st round pick is roughly the 26th overall selection, plus I have 3 compensation picks from losing Tony Gwynn, John Valentin, and Paul Quantrill. This gives me 4 picks total.

It's a shame there's no archive of Elias rankings out there anywhere, at least not that I can find.

Oh my, this is a wonderful draft. There's also a late-round, historical situation involving a Red Sox draft pick that I feel compelled to intervene in, since it apparently so closely related to the GM's actions at the time.

I was frustrated by my FA compensation picks being protected, thereby denying me the ability to draft CC Sabathia. I am about to get over that, though.

With my 1st round pick, I select Mark Buehrle. He will first appear in 2000, and go full-time in 2001. He will also be referred to as "he" very frequently. For the record, he was originally drafted in the 38th round of the draft, all of 4 picks after Dennis Tankersley, who the Red Sox picked in that round.

With my 1st supplemental round pick, I select Matt Holliday. Holliday will arrive full-time in 2004.

With my 2nd supplemental round pick, I select Adam Dunn. Dunn will appear part-time in 2001, before going full-time in 2002.

With my 2nd supplemental round pick, I select John Buck. Buck will appear part-time in 2004, before going full-time in 2005.

My third supplemental pick...is a special case.

There's also a particular point about the 1998 Red Sox draft class that can't be left unaddressed, even though the end result will be remarkably convenient for me.

In the 9th round of the 1998 draft, the Red Sox selected Mark Teixeira. Teixeira did not sign with the Red Sox. So far in this exercise, I have not tinkered with picks outside of the 1st/supplemental round. It would just be even sillier than it already is if I basically got the best late-round player from every round of every draft. I have also not interfered with non-signings, or drafted players who did not originally sign in order to throw $ at them to make them sign. I can rationalize that away by saying that I leave the later rounds up to my Scouting and Player Development Departments, including the negotiations/non-negotiations with the draft picks. In Teixeira's case, it seems like the history directly touched upon the GM, so I can't avoid this one.

The actual interview done by Baseball America seems to be behind a subscription wall, so the best I can do is this commentary that includes the key information from the interview.

The Tale of Teixeira

Alan Schwarz: The Red Sox offered you $1.5 million before the draft, which was pretty darned fair in 1998.

Mark Teixeira: They said take it or leave it. It was a decent bonus, but it wasn't what we were looking for, and we didn't want to cap our negotiation before the draft even happened. It's unfair and illegal to go to a kid and say, "We haven't drafted you yet, we may or may not draft you, but if you don't take 1.5 we're not going to draft you." What would you say? There's 29 other teams out there--why would I ever cap myself before the draft even happens? It doesn't make any sense. It's unfair to those kids. Say, "Draft me and I'll let you know."

I have a very cynical approach toward the draft. I was naive. It was my first realization to the business in baseball. The Red Sox told everybody that I wouldn't sign, and when it got to a late enough round, they said, "Let's take a flier on him." So they spoiled me for everyone else--the only one that would draft me was them.

My original plan was to basically fix the negotiations that happened between Teixeira, his agent, and myself after the draft, but upon refreshing my memory, it appears that the well was poisoned before he was ever selected. The context leads me to the following conclusions.

1) Mark Teixeira possessed a 1.5 million dollar body and a 10 cent head if he thought trying to set a price in a negotiation was "illegal"
2) The round in which he was selected was a part of how he felt "slandered" by the Red Sox, so that's an issue with my initial approach to fixing this.
3) Some more $ and/or a friendlier negotiation strategy would make a significant difference in how this situation turned out, but it would have to start before the draft, along the original timeline.

Regarding point #3, I have two key factors working in my favor.

1) I am not Dan Duquette, he of the notoriously awesome social and PR skills. I'm pretty sure that even real-life me, nerdy as I am, might actually be more personable than Duquette appears to have been with media and agents.
2) Mark Teixeira's agent is Scott Boras, and it was my big Greg Maddux deal that put Scott Boras on the map in this reality, not just Boras' ability to have his draftees hold out for more money in the draft (Drew, Varitek, Teixeira). So, he and I have worked together productively before, and there is no reason to believe that we can not do so again.

So, I work out a deal with Boras/Teixeira during the historial pre-draft negotiation period, and all is well. He gets a sizeable signing bonus, but I hold the line on a full MLB deal, because I want to make sure that this high schooler is fully developed before he hits the big leagues. I am seriously changing this guy's development path by skipping his 4 years at Georgia Tech, so that needs to be accounted for. I actually might be stunting his development a tad, even though it is undeniable that his talent/history should win out in the end, so I'll just have to say that he will still appear when he originally did, but that he struggles in the minors off and on before breaking in during 2003. I can't really justify having a guy who only took 4 years in college + 1 minor league season to hit the majors running taking 6 years to develop in my minor league system. It's a guess, but it's the closest thing to an educated guess that I can come up with under the circumstances.

With my 3rd supplemental pick, I draft Mark Teixeira. He will arrive full-time in 2003.

Ok, so I take back everything I said about no good position players being available in the draft. Wow! I'm going to have some major roster crunch decisions to make down the road.

The 1999 roster moves will come some other day.

Edited by JMDurron, 28 November 2010 - 05:35 PM.

[JMDurron]

I'm not quite dead yet.

1999 Roster Moves

First, a few departures.

Brian Jordan finishes his rental time, and signs with the Atlanta Braves as a Type A FA, as per history. I get the Braves 1st round pick and a supplemental pick.

Mike Timlin departs and signs with the Baltimore Orioles, netting a supplemental pick.

Greg McMichael also departs, signing with the Mets. Unfortunately, his mediocre 1998 season means he is only a Type B, netting only a supplemental pick.

Position Players:

At catcher, the age of Varitek begins. Scott Hatteberg is demoted to #2.

Jason Giambi remains at DH, as David Ortiz is still helpfully recovering from his hamate bone injury. That's one more season before I have to deal with that particular mess.

Bagwell, Durham, Nomar, and Rolen remain as my IF of awesomeness. Polanco remains behind them.

Jim Edmonds remains as my anchor in CF. Johnny Damon is in LF, with Carlos Beltran ready to be the full-time RF. I like rangey OFers! So do my pitchers. Darren Lewis remains to back them all up.

Starting Rotation:

Once again, 5 starters remain from the previous season, and two new starters arrive. It's less of a dire situation this time around, however. Tim Hudson and Randy Wolf are ready to join the party. Martinez, Maddux, Pettitte, Radke, and Vazquez remain from 1998. It's time to count starts again! In 1999, Pedro made 29 starts, Maddux made 33 (4th straight year of 33+ starts, the man was a machine), Pettitte made 31, Radke made 33, and Vazquez made 26. That is a grand total of 152. For the new arrivals, Hudson historically made 21 starts, and Wolf made 21. Given how badly Vazquez pitches (again) in 1999, and that there are already 10 starts free for one of the newbies to get half of their total, I think stealing 5 from Vazquez for a young gun towards the end of the year shouldn't reasonably distort either player too badly. Throw in some 6th starter duty/long relief, and I think I can successfully integrate one of my two prospects in 1999.

Gee, which one do I trade? Randy Wolf is going on the block. Let's see if I actually need anything that I can get for him. I hate giving things away for free.

In the bullpen, it is almost too easy. McMichael and Timlin depart, Joe Nathan and Don Kolb are called up to take their places. Derek Lowe, Bob Howry, Keith Foulke, Danny Graves, and Rich Garces (released and re-signed, as per history) remain from last year's group.

Up Next: The Randy Wolf Trade Market.

[JMDurron]

So, rust begets laziness. First, some commentary on historical 1999 moves.

I do not sign Jose Offerman. I do not sign Mark Portugal. I do not sign Brian Daubach. I do not sign Rheal Cormier.

Also, John Wasdin was released pre-1998. I kind of forgot about him.

I do, however, want to trade Randy Wolf for something. A significant pitching prospect is available for me to trade, but what are my needs?

Darren Lewis is a perfectly capable backup OFer who can play CF, a necessity in such a down year for Edmonds. Perhaps I could use another OF upgrade to make up for Edmonds down/injury year, leaving Lewis as the 5th OFer? This is a possibility.

I need no pitching. None. Nada.

Placido Polanco is perfectly acceptable as a backup who can play 3B, SS, and 2B. Jeff Bagwell and Jason Giambi are Iron Men (well, an Iron Man and some sort of Synthetic Composite Man, or is it two of those?) who need no backups, essentially. Giambi's rare day off is basically a chance to get one of Damon/Beltran/Edmonds/Lewis a day off in the field while DHing. Yes, I just suggested the occasional day at DH for Darren Lewis.

So, it seems like OF depth or bust. Let's see if there's another perfect, "trade for a guy off a down year who magically has an awesome year and becomes a Type A FA" match like Brian Jordan out there.

There are no OFers worth draft pick compensation in the 1999-2000 offseason. Last year was flukishly easy that way, no such luck this time. The next logical step is to see what his historical 1999 team has to offer, the Philadelphia Phillies.

The 1998 Phillies were a below-500 team, and would be again in 1999, and in 2000. This is a non-contender that is aware of its inability to contend. Unfortunately, I don't see much of a match here. Doug Glanville and Bobby Abreu are young enough/good enough for a team to try to rebuild with them. Ron Gant is a veteran who has some years left on his deal, and won't take kindly to a bench role in 2000 when Edmonds is healthy. He's 34, but still good enough to know that he's still good enough. So luck there, unless I settle for Gant (the Phillies trade him in 2000 anyway), and then move him myself in the offseason to avoid the clubhouse problems.

So now I get to look for some kind of prospect-for-prospect deal, which is a massive headache. What positions do I not have an heir apparent for, when the current incumbent is gone?

Varitek's eventual successor looks to be John Buck. Teixeira is in the pipeline to replace Bagwell. Nomar's going to get his historical extension through 2004 anyway, but between Durham, Nomar, and Rolen, there is some combination of Michael Young (not at SS, for God's sake), Orlando Hudson, and Marcus Giles as replacements. Damon's years of team control coincide with a certain FA signing that I don't have to decide on yet. Edmonds is extended through 2005, there's no reason I can't find an OFer to draft with all these picks. Beltran is backfilled by Matt Holliday, as bad as that would be defensively. Even DH is covered with some guy named Ortiz. Starting pitching is the problem I'm trying to solve here! Kevin Gregg and Scott Shields are already in the pipe, and relievers basically grow on trees with knowledge of the future and this many picks.

Ultimately, I have no viable alternative. I trade SP prospect Randy Wolf to the Philadelphia Phillies for Ron Gant. Gant is not pleased by this development, but I trust Joe Morgan to keep the lid on until Edmonds gets gimpy and effectively makes him the starting LF (Damon to CF). My next idea involved trading a prospect for the rights to make their manager Joe Morgan's bench coach, but that might have been a bit of a stretch, so Ron Gant it is.

The 1999 season is next. Eventually.

[JMDurron]

The 1999 Season

Position Players:

C: Jason Varitek (101). Scott Hatteberg (100) backs up.
1B: Jeff Bagwell over Mike Stanley (115 -> 157). Giambi backs up.
2B: Ray Durham over Jose Offerman (108 -> 105). Placido Polanco (67) backs up.
SS: Nomar Garciaparra (153). Polanco backs up.
3B: Scott Rolen over John Valentin (78 -> 114). Polanco backs up.
LF: Johnny Damon over Troy O'Leary (108 -> 116). Ron Gant (91) backs up.
CF: Jim Edmonds over Darren Lewis (57 -> 95). Lewis backs up.
RF: Carlos Beltran over Trot Nixon (107 -> 99). Lewis backs up.
DH: Jason Giambi over Reggie Jefferson (90 -> 153). Gant backs up.

Polanco gets most of his time at 3B, as Scott Rolen only plays in 112 games. Durham plays in 153 and requires very little relief, and Nomar plays 135 games. Jim Edmonds only plays in 55 games due to injury, at which point the OF alignment becomes Gant-Damon-Beltran, with Lewis backing up all 3 positions. Once Gant is in LF, Hatteberg backs up DH, not that it matters with Giambi playing in 158 games. David Ortiz is injured and irrelevant...for now.

The Bench:

Scott Hatteberg - C, some DH
David Ortiz - very little 1B/DH time
Placido Polanco - 2B, SS, 3B
Ron Gant - LF, DH
Darren Lewis - CF, RF, LF

The Starting Rotation:

Pedro Martinez (213.1/243)
Greg Maddux (219.1/121)
Brad Radke (218.2/135)
Andy Pettitte (191.2/101)

Javier Vazquez (154.2/85)
Tim Hudson (136.1/142)

I get around the Vazquez/Hudson jam by leaving Hudson in the minors just a wee bit longer, and generously putting Javier Vazquez on the DL with "shoulder soreness" as the season moves along. Neither get their historical innings loads, but Hudson makes up some of his in the postseason, while Vazquez is cryogenicly frozen and shot into space in a Big Boy rocket in October, as per standard procedure. I don't think the IP change will impact their relative levels of effectiveness.

The Bullpen:

Derek Lowe (109.1/191)
Danny Graves (111/148)
Keith Foulke (105.1/122)
Joe Nathan (90.1/98) - emergency starter
Bob Howry (67.2/138)
Rich Garces (40.2/326)
Dan Kolb (31/111)

Suffice to say that the guys with over 100 IP on their respective teams in 1999 do not need to pitch as many long outings on this team. It's nice to know that they could, though. I have trouble seeing fewer innings in the same outings having any significant negative impact on their overall performances, though. Nathan's IP in particular drop, since he was mostly a starter in 1999, and I clearly have no need to use him that way. He's the long man, for the rare times that I need one.

Historically, the 1999 Red Sox finished 2nd in the AL East, 4 games behind the Yankees, who they lost to in the ALCS. In this timeline, the Red Sox have the better lineup, the better rotation (by the end of the season with Hudson), and a bullpen that is at worst on part with what the 1999 Yankees brought to the table. This Red Sox lineup has some mediocrity in the OF, but the dropoff from Edmonds to Gant is slim in 1999, and when the worst offensive performer is putting up an OPS+ of 91, I feel like that is enough for the 3-headed monster of Jeff Bagwell, Jason Giambi, and Nomar Garciaparra to have their way with the league. The defense is also excellent, with Gant's age hidden in LF half the time, and two CFers in CF and RF at Fenway. The IF defense is rock-solid as well, even if Nomar lets a few sail every now and then. The pitchers don't pitch any better with Jason Varitek behind the plate, but they sure give some great soundbites about him.

Between the improved Red Sox squad and the loss of Andy Pettitte, the standings in the AL East are flipped in 1999. The division is mine once again. The Rangers still get swept in the ALDS, but by Boston instead of New York. Tim Hudson takes over for a wounded Pedro Martinez in Game 1, who is not needed for any bullpen heroics. In spite of the now-apparent literal shrinkage issues of Roger Clemens, the Yankees fight past the Indians in 5 games, and it's time for another showdown.

This time, the Yankees get a taste of a fully armed and operational 1999 Pedro Martinez in Game 1. El Duque is sad. Greg Maddux and David Cone duel once again in Game 2, and Cone has the better stuff. Unfortunately for Cone, the Red Sox have the better Scott, and Rolen outdoes Brosius with some late-inning HR heroics to secure a comeback victory. Radke comes up small in Yankee Stadium in Game 3 (Twins genetics, I suppose), and is slightly worse than Roger Clemens in a Yankees victory, saved by his awesomeness, Mariano Rivera. Andy Pettitte in Yankee Stadium is a beautiful thing in Game 4, at least when he is in a Red Sox uniform. The Yankees wisely avoid Hideki Irabu and pitch El Duque on short rest, who gets the tough luck loss once again. Just in case Boston was too remote a location for an effective demonstration of his power, Pedro throws another shutout in Game 5 in NY, and it's onto the World Series.

Historically, the Braves were the NL's representative in the 1999 World Series. Unfortunately for them, I have distorted 2/5 of their rotation, with Greg Maddux on my roster and Kevin Millwood pitching for the Cardinals. Their offense is untouched, but was only 7th best in the NL in 1999 anyway. Suffice to say that they do not make the World Series.

So the hunt for their replacement begins. Raise your hand if you knew that the Diamondbacks won 100 games in 1999. Nothing I have done touches them at all. The Wild Card Mets team who beat them win the NL East ahead of a mediocre Braves team, and are also unspoiled. The Houston Astros won the NL Central in 1999, but only had the 8th best offense in the league...with Jeff Bagwell. The Cincinnati Reds go from also-rans to NL Central champs even without Danny Graves. Outside of the Braves, D-Backs, Mets, Astros, and Reds, the NL as a whole really sucked in 1999. Not even Dye, Millwood, and Russ Ortiz could make the Cardinals contenders. So the question becomes whether the Astros or Braves take the wild card, and I am forced to conclude that the Astros without Bagwell are still slightly better off than the Braves without Maddux and Millwood.

The Astros are swept aside by the Diamondbacks. The Mets outlast the Graves-less Reds. The Mets beat the Diamondbacks in the NLDS historically, but I have trouble seeing that Mets starting pitching besting the Randy Johnson-led Diamondbacks in a best-of-7 series. The Diamondbacks make the World Series in 1999 for the NL.

Not that it matters. Randy Johnson is probably better than every pitcher not named Pedro Martinez in 1999, but he gets to face Pedro Martinez in 1999, with a better lineup and defense supporting him. The bullpens are a wash, but that only matters when you have a lead to hold. The Red Sox win the World Series in 5 games, adding title number 16 to the trophy case.

Next is the 1999 draft.

Edited by JMDurron, 30 November 2010 - 11:22 PM.

[SoxSport]

Whatever year the Red Sox had a chance to sign Willie Mays to their AAA farm team in Birmingham (?). I would have had a few bourbons with Tom Yawkey, and told him I had a dream this kid would be a 5 tool Hall of Famer.

[opes]

I'm pretty sure they knew beforehand Willy Mays had great potential. Unfortunately, some other teams knew that too.

[JMDurron]

Whatever year the Red Sox had a chance to sign Willie Mays to their AAA farm team in Birmingham (?). I would have had a few bourbons with Tom Yawkey, and told him I had a dream this kid would be a 5 tool Hall of Famer.

From some googling, it looks like you mean 1949.

NPR Article on the Subject

In 1949, the Red Sox gave up the chance to sign future Hall of Famer Willie Mays, who would go on to hit more career home runs than all but one man before him and electrify crowds with his defensive play. As Juan Williams reports, "one of the team's scouts decided that it wasn't worth waiting through a stretch of rainy weather to scout any black player. That decision killed the possibility that Mays and Ted Williams might have played in the same outfield for the Red Sox."

The article is from 2002, and mentions some community outreach efforts by the "new" Red Sox ownership that I wasn't aware of, so it's worth a read.