15 replies to this topic

[TheShynessClinic]

This has been a successful venture in RMPS, and there's no reason it can't be successful here. I've earned the right to make this, and as such, it has been made.

Discuss.

[LogansDad]

I hate that you had to make this thread already.

Here's hoping Beltre comes back (at reasonable cost) and Carl Crawford has a leg fall off after the Yankees sign him for $120 million.

If that happens, and everyone gets healthy, I have a good feeling about next year.

[barclay]

The below, signed today in the Globe by Henry,Werner and Lucchino is, of course, damage control. But I think its not simply PR -- it indicates a real awareness of the possible attrition of the fan base and all the $$$ that goes with it. Something big is coming up (with apologies to Sean Connery -- for those of you old enough to remember). I expect a delicious hot stove. Bon appetit.



There's nothing like "October Baseball" at Fenway Park. You miss it. We miss it. We want it back.While we fell short of our annual goal of reaching the postseason, we are proud nonetheless of the way this team conducted itself through serious adversity — showing grit, determination and a team-first attitude. We are also proud of you, our loyal fans. Through injury (and more injuries) and after hard-to-swallow losses, you continued to fill Fenway Park and support the team. When the kids were called up, you learned their names, their stories, and applauded them as your own. When you saw our veterans playing though their bodies weren't cooperating, you took note and appreciated their heart and spirit. When we were struggling, you were there. When we had walk-off wins, you were there. We work for you. Our players play for you. It gives us immense pride to do so. You are the rock on which this franchise is built.We know the best way to honor you is not merely to thank you, but to go out and honor our fundamental commitment to field an excellent team in 2011, another one worthy of your avid support.We can do better. We will do better. We are committed to winning. For you, for us, for the whole of Red Sox Nation. Once more, we say "Thank You."Pitchers and catchers report in 132 days.

[Kull]

Pitchers and catchers report in 132 days.

One of the most evocative phrases in all of sport. Winter isn't even here yet, but those words come with a taste of Spring, and all that it stands for.

[LynnRice75]

Saw a stat on ESPN last night. The 4 best bullpens in the American League were Yankees, Rangers, Rays,and Twins. Hmmm. What do those teams have in common?
There are some big offensive names to deal with this summer, but the bullpen screams for attention.
In other news, my cable system in Florida finally added NESN- on the last Saturday of the season! Sigh. Guess it will be good for Hot Stove Analysis.

[kieckeredinthehead]

Saw a stat on ESPN last night. The 4 best bullpens in the American League were Yankees, Rangers, Rays,and Twins. Hmmm. What do those teams have in common?
There are some big offensive names to deal with this summer, but the bullpen screams for attention.
In other news, my cable system in Florida finally added NESN- on the last Saturday of the season! Sigh. Guess it will be good for Hot Stove Analysis.

Well they have in common general managers who can put together a winning team. Guess who else had great bullpens compared to the rest of the League? The Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, and Toronto Blue Jays. In fact, depending on what metric you use, some of those bullpens were actually BETTER than the ones going to the playoffs. You know the 4/5 top teams in runs allowed? Tampa, New York, Minnesota and Texas (Oakland was at #1). How about runs scored? New York, Boston, Tampa, Texas, Minnesota. Surprise -- playoff-bound teams tend to be high in the rankings for most statistics.

Here's a fun one: name teams that had a winning record in extra innings. Tampa, Minnesota, Texas, LA, Kansas, and Baltimore. If we'd gone 12-6 in extra innings, we go to the playoffs.

How about this one: how many teams had a winning record in 1-run games? Tampa, NY, Minnesota, Texas, Chicago, Oakland, Cleveland, Baltimore. If we had gone 26-22 in 1-run games (including a couple against Tampa or NY), we're going to the playoffs.

What's my point? Well, look at the distribution: winning percentage in 1-run games is not correlated with winning percentage over all. It's random. But the four teams that are in the playoffs had winning records in 1 run games. The four teams who could have been contenders (Boston, Toronto, Chicago, Detroit), do not. Is there anything that could make you more likely to win 1 run games? Maybe a good bullpen, but not just a good bullpen, but one that has multiple guys who can throw up scoreless innings in high pressure situations. Tampa has it; New York has it; and that's why they'll be the two teams that end up in the ALCS.

[casil]

And also real good managers win 1 run games, is Tito more than average?

Well they have in common general managers who can put together a winning team. Guess who else had great bullpens compared to the rest of the League? The Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, and Toronto Blue Jays. In fact, depending on what metric you use, some of those bullpens were actually BETTER than the ones going to the playoffs. You know the 4/5 top teams in runs allowed? Tampa, New York, Minnesota and Texas (Oakland was at #1). How about runs scored? New York, Boston, Tampa, Texas, Minnesota. Surprise -- playoff-bound teams tend to be high in the rankings for most statistics.

Here's a fun one: name teams that had a winning record in extra innings. Tampa, Minnesota, Texas, LA, Kansas, and Baltimore. If we'd gone 12-6 in extra innings, we go to the playoffs.

How about this one: how many teams had a winning record in 1-run games? Tampa, NY, Minnesota, Texas, Chicago, Oakland, Cleveland, Baltimore. If we had gone 26-22 in 1-run games (including a couple against Tampa or NY), we're going to the playoffs.

What's my point? Well, look at the distribution: winning percentage in 1-run games is not correlated with winning percentage over all. It's random. But the four teams that are in the playoffs had winning records in 1 run games. The four teams who could have been contenders (Boston, Toronto, Chicago, Detroit), do not. Is there anything that could make you more likely to win 1 run games? Maybe a good bullpen, but not just a good bullpen, but one that has multiple guys who can throw up scoreless innings in high pressure situations. Tampa has it; New York has it; and that's why they'll be the two teams that end up in the ALCS.

Edited by casil, 11 October 2010 - 06:40 PM.

[kieckeredinthehead]

And also real good managers win 1 run games, is Tito more than average?

I wonder why Tito was such a good manager in 2005 (27-15, .643 winning pct) and such a crummy manager in 2007 (22-28, .440).

[Mike in CT]

The below, signed today in the Globe by Henry,Werner and Lucchino is, of course, damage control. But I think its not simply PR -- it indicates a real awareness of the possible attrition of the fan base and all the $$$ that goes with it. Something big is coming up (with apologies to Sean Connery -- for those of you old enough to remember). I expect a delicious hot stove. Bon appetit.

There's nothing like "October Baseball" at Fenway Park. You miss it. We miss it. We want it back.While we fell short of our annual goal of reaching the postseason, we are proud nonetheless of the way this team conducted itself through serious adversity — showing grit, determination and a team-first attitude. We are also proud of you, our loyal fans. Through injury (and more injuries) and after hard-to-swallow losses, you continued to fill Fenway Park and support the team. When the kids were called up, you learned their names, their stories, and applauded them as your own. When you saw our veterans playing though their bodies weren't cooperating, you took note and appreciated their heart and spirit. When we were struggling, you were there. When we had walk-off wins, you were there. We work for you. Our players play for you. It gives us immense pride to do so. You are the rock on which this franchise is built.We know the best way to honor you is not merely to thank you, but to go out and honor our fundamental commitment to field an excellent team in 2011, another one worthy of your avid support.We can do better. We will do better. We are committed to winning. For you, for us, for the whole of Red Sox Nation. Once more, we say "Thank You."Pitchers and catchers report in 132 days.

First I have seen of this statement.

They would be right if they are fearful of fans beginning to find better uses of 3-4 hours.

Besides W/L record, they can start by assuring that people will not feel like the game is over when we're down 4-0 in the 4th. They can also decide that they aren't going to make fans watch Matsuzaka every 5th day if he is going to have hour long innings. Nor Tim Wakefield.

There will not be big changes to the starting staff (only Matsuzaka could be moved)
No one is coming to the ballpark to see a revamped middle relief.
No one is coming to see defense.

It's offense or bust this winter, as far as assuring fans stick around.
They have lost that feeling that something dramatic will happen late in the game. They have lost that feeling that they are never out of a game.
They've had enough time now to prepare for and deal with Manny's departure, and Ortiz's decline.

I can't take the owners seriously about this if they let Beltre walk for some Mike Cameron-esque stop gap, unless there is a gigantic overhaul of the outfield (LF, CF).

I cannot believe there are people on the main board having serious conversations about Chone Figgins for 3B. The owners, in light of fan sentiment right now, would be insane to let Beltre walk in favor of some 2 HR hitter. I don't care what Bill James tells them.

You just cannot have a team of Scutaro or Lowrie at SS, and Figgins or Lowrie at 3B, with 2/3rds of your outfield consisting of Cameron and Ellsbury.

That, or anything close to that is a recipe for fans leaving in droves.

Edited by Mike in CT, 16 October 2010 - 12:46 AM.

[barclay]

First I have seen of this statement.

They would be right if they are fearful of fans beginning to find better uses of 3-4 hours.

Besides W/L record, they can start by assuring that people will not feel like the game is over when we're down 4-0 in the 4th. They can also decide that they aren't going to make fans watch Matsuzaka every 5th day if he is going to have hour long innings. Nor Tim Wakefield.

There will not be big changes to the starting staff (only Matsuzaka could be moved)
No one is coming to the ballpark to see a revamped middle relief.
No one is coming to see defense.

It's offense or bust this winter, as far as assuring fans stick around.
They have lost that feeling that something dramatic will happen late in the game. They have lost that feeling that they are never out of a game.
They've had enough time now to prepare for and deal with Manny's departure, and Ortiz's decline.

I can't take the owners seriously about this if they let Beltre walk for some Mike Cameron-esque stop gap, unless there is a gigantic overhaul of the outfield (LF, CF).

I cannot believe there are people on the main board having serious conversations about Chone Figgins for 3B. The owners, in light of fan sentiment right now, would be insane to let Beltre walk in favor of some 2 HR hitter. I don't care what Bill James tells them.

You just cannot have a team of Scutaro or Lowrie at SS, and Figgins or Lowrie at 3B, with 2/3rds of your outfield consisting of Cameron and Ellsbury.

That, or anything close to that is a recipe for fans leaving in droves.

not only is this right on, here is another scary thought -- we are not at all sure that Pedroia and Youk will be 100 percent -- or even close. I can't imagine that has escaped the FO. And I can't believe they will let Beltre and Vmart walk (or not sign a FA or complete a significant trade) with such a possibility looming. Then again...

[Mike in CT]

not only is this right on, here is another scary thought -- we are not at all sure that Pedroia and Youk will be 100 percent -- or even close. I can't imagine that has escaped the FO. And I can't believe they will let Beltre and Vmart walk (or not sign a FA or complete a significant trade) with such a possibility looming. Then again...

I agree. I would also say they should expect the worst on Lowrie. They are making a mistake if they give him the 3B job. He can start at SS (since we have Scutaro), or play the super-utility role in the IF.

[Sampo Gida]

Well they have in common general managers who can put together a winning team. Guess who else had great bullpens compared to the rest of the League? The Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, and Toronto Blue Jays.

Fan Graphs has Red Sox bullpen with the the 4th lowest RAR among all MLB teams. Depending on which flavor of WAR you prefer, the Red Sox bullpen in 2010 was 3.8 WAR (Fan Graphs) to 5.2 WAR (B-ref) below the 2009 bullpens performance.

Fixing the pen can gain them 4-5 W's.

[barclay]

It may well be that Young will be our next pitching coach (per Olney -- but then again, its Olney). If so, I imagine Breslow would be interested in following him, given he thinks Young was responsible for his rebirth (lefties were .181 against him this year -- 3.01 ERA). I also imagine Breslow would come cheap. Sign him up and see if he sticks? I would expect Theo to do so. Why not?

[Crazy Puppy]

It may well be that Young will be our next pitching coach (per Olney -- but then again, its Olney). If so, I imagine Breslow would be interested in following him, given he thinks Young was responsible for his rebirth (lefties were .181 against him this year -- 3.01 ERA). I also imagine Breslow would come cheap. Sign him up and see if he sticks? I would expect Theo to do so. Why not?

Breslow is not a free agent.

[ngruz25]

edit: Wrong place

Edited by ngruz25, 04 December 2010 - 09:56 AM.

[ToeKneeArmAss]

Count me among those who are very happy about the A-Gon deal (assuming they sign him to an extension, of course). And I love all the talk about Upton, and Crawford, and Werth, etc.

But unless I'm mistaken, next to the injury plague, the biggest issue the Red Sox had last year was ... pitching. I'm not expecting much if any change to the starters next year (other than regression-to-nonsuckitude by Beckett and Lackey). But frankly I'll be deeply disappointed if we don't see some major moves to improve the bullpen this off-season.

Anyone else?