1 reply to this topic

[philly sox fan]

1994 Draft Review

Part 1: Shape of Draft

        Y0   Y1   Y2   Y3    Y4    Y5    Y6    Y7    Y8    Y9   Y10   Y11  
HS      18   19   20   21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29   
 C       21   22   23   24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    

WARP     0    0   11   40    79   145   144   157   141   144   122   121   
%pk      0    0    7   25    50    93    92   100    90    92    78    77    

#Pl      0    2   18   39    69    84    80    84    82    65    56    52   
3        0    0    1    3     4    18    19    16    15     3    14    12    
6+       0    0    0    1     3     4     4     5     5    11     5     6   
Tot      0    0    1    4     7    22    23    21    20    14    19    18

This draft is similar to the 1992 draft. It leans towards college players and it’s quite weak overall. Again, where the very good drafts of the late 1980s peaked with over 200 WARP3 seasons this draft peaks around 150 WARP3.

The pattern for “#Pl” is typical although the peak number of players is a little low.

The number of “3” players peaks relatively early in Y5 and maintains a high level through the broad peak, but in this case that’s not example of draft strength or depth. Some of those seemingly extra “3” players should be “6+” players, but they’re not good enough.

Aside from the fluke spike in Y9 when a bunch of “3” players happened to clear the 6 WARP3 threshold, this is a very low ceiling draft with just five “6+” player seasons at peak.

Part 2: Types of Players

                         WARP3     # players    total players    % of players
                           100+          0             0                 0
                            90           0             0                 0
                            80           0             0                 0
                            70           0             0                 0
                            60           1             1                 1
                            50           0             1                 1
                            40           4             5                 4
                            30           5            10                 7
                            20          10            20                15
                            10          15            35                26   
                             0          82           117                87
                            <0          18           135               100

The combination of a poor draft and not a lot of time to accumulate production completely empties the top of this table. Nomar is the lone player over 50 WARP3 and his durability issues greatly limit his upside. If more than a handful of players end their careers over 60 WARP3 I’ll be surprised and fragile Nomar is really the only one with much of a chance to clear 80 WARP3. The mid and low range depth isn’t very good either.

Part 3: Top 40 Players

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1       12      Bos       N Garciaparra*    SS         C          63.6
  2       5      140      Mon       J Vasquez*       RHP        HS          43.9
  3       9      256       SF       Keith Foulke*    RHP         C          43.2
  4       1       14      Sea       Jason Varitek*     C         C          42.7
  5      26      715      Min       Corey Koskie*     3B         C          41.3
  6      19      530      Stl       Placido Polanco*  SS        JC          38.5
  7       1       13       LA       Paul Konerko*      C        HS          34.9
  8       4      101      Cle       Danny Graves*    RHP         C          32.6
  9       1        3       SD       D Hermanson*     RHP         C          31.9
 10       3       72      Cin       Aaron Boone*      3B         C          31.6

Most the best players were C draft picks including the only star. The clustering is only mediocre with Vazquez and Foulke notable mid to late round picks.

Outside of Nomar there just isn’t much star power. Vazquez was supposed to be a star by now, but he never made The Leap and at this point probably won’t. Foulke was a star, but in an innings limited role. Varitek has had a great early 30s peak to salvage his college potential as a very good player, but he hasn’t been a star. Konerko has a huge contract and an important role on the newly minted championship White Sox, but isn’t a star outside of Chicago. There isn’t all that much upside for even these top players and despite the general truism that it’s not especially late in these players’ career we’re already seeing a lot of them breakdown.

That’s especially true of some of the players in the bottom of this group. Graves has already passed through the waiver wire a couple of times. Hermanson may no longer be healthy enough to play ever again. There are some players ranked lower that will pass them and knock them out of the top 10, but not all that many and that group isn’t terribly impressive either.

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
 11       1        8      Min       Todd Walker*      2B         C          31.5
 12      43     1193      Hou       Julio Lugo*       SS        JC          29.4
 13       3       71      Min       AJ Pierzynski*     C        HS          28.9
 14       8      207      Mil       Ron Belliard*     SS        HS          28.5
 15       1        2      Oak       Ben Grieve*       OF        HS          25.9
 16       1s      29      NYM       Jay Payton*       OF         C          24.7
 17       6      161      Sea       Joe Mays*        RHP        HS          24.0
 18      13      355      Bos       Carl Pavano*     RHP        HS          23.5
 19      12      331       KC       Jose Rosado      LHP        JC          21.4
 20       1       20      NYM       Terence Long*     OF        HS          20.4

Walker has settled into a decent though limited career. Lugo and Pierzynski are pretty good players with a decent chunk of their careers ahead of them. Belliard is an adequate regular for Cleveland. The Yankees still owe Pavano ~30M. And that’s about it. How many “good” players are there from this draft? At most it’s 12-15. It’s just a really weak draft.

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
 21       5      144       SF       Bobby Howry*     RHP         C          20.3
 22      23      640      Hou       John Halama*     LHP         C          19.1
 23       6      169      Tex       Jim Brower*      RHP         C          16.3
 24       1       10      Cle       Jaret Wright*    RHP        HS          14.8
 25       7      196      Mon       Geoff Blum*       SS         C          14.4
 26      11      305      Det       Bubba Trammell    OF         C          14.3
 27       1        1      NYM       Paul Wilson*     RHP         C          14.3
 28       1       25      Hou       Scott Elarton*   RHP        HS          14.2
 29       3       85      Tex       Scott Podsednik*  OF        HS          14.1
 30      28      781      Det       Dave Roberts*     OF         C          14.0

This is mostly back of the staff pitchers and role players. Wright, Podsednik and Roberts all have signature playoff moments to their careers at least.

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
 31       3       70      Fla       Brian Meadows*   RHP        HS          13.4
 32      47     1290      Cub       Kyle Farnsworth* RHP        HS          13.0
 33      23      624      NYM       Scott Sauerbeck* LHP         C          12.9
 34       5      123      Mil       Steve Woodard    RHP        HS          12.2
 35       7      185      Cle       Russ Branyan*     3B        HS          11.6
 36      70     1627       KC       Jose Santiago*   RHP        HS          10.0
 37      21      583       KC       Lance Carter*    RHP        CC           9.7
 38       1       26      CWS       Mark Johnson       C        HS           9.6
 39       6      166      Stl       Blake Stein      RHP         C           8.9
 40      54     1437      Tor       Chris Woodward*   SS        HS           8.7

Farnsworth is still well regarded enough to get a relatively big three year deal this past winter, but as an inconsistent reliever his ultimate production upside is pretty limited. Lance Carter was an All Star!

Part 4: Top Players Prior to Free Agency

Rank    Car Rank    Player               Pre-FA      Post-FA     
  1         1        Nomar Garciaparra*    51.4         12.2
         
  2         5        Corey Koskie*         38.2          3.1         
  3         2        Javier Vasquez*       37.9          6.0         
  4         3        Keith Foulke*         34.3          8.9         
  5         6        Placido Polanco*      31.0          7.5         
  6         8        Danny Graves*         30.0          2.6
         
  7        12        Julio Lugo*           29.4          0.0         
  8        13        AJ Pierzynski*        28.9          0.0         
  9        14        Ron Belliard*         28.5          0.0         
 10        10        Aaron Boone*          27.9          3.7         
 11         4        Jason Varitek*        26.2         16.5         
 12         7        Paul Konerko*         26.0          8.9 
        
 13        11        Todd Walker*          24.8          6.7         
 14        16        Jay Payton*           24.7          0.0         
 15        15        Ben Grieve*           24.6          1.3         
 16        17        Joe Mays*             22.7          1.3         
 17        18        Carl Pavano*          22.6          0.9         
 18         9        Dustin Hermanson*     22.0          9.9         
 19        19        Jose Rosado           21.4          0.0         
 20        20        Terence Long*         20.4          0.0         
 21        21        Bobby Howry*          20.3          0.0

Nomar was an extremely valuable pre-FA player. There’s a huge gap between him and the next group of pretty good players.

Only twelve players cleared 25 WARP3, but certainly a few others – Walker, Grieve, Pavano, Rosado – had their moments.

Note that a couple pretty good players - Lugo (5 yrs, 152 days) and Pierzynski (5 yrs, 100 days) still had not accrued enough service time to be free agents eleven years after they were drafted. This is why I don’t like trying to quantify draft production any closer than eleven years post draft. It’s just not fair to the HS players who may still have a prime pre-FA year yet to be played. In comparison the top college players – Nomar, Koskie, Foulke, Varitek – all had 7-9 full years in the majors. If you try to quantity drafts of the mid and later 90s, then you ought to see a college edge simply because those players have had much more time to accumulate WARP3 produciton.


Part 5: Players by Round

Round   WARP3    WARP/pk    WARP/pk (87-94)    Players    20   40   60   80   100
  1      326.1      11.6          17.9             21       5    1    1          
  1s      46.6       7.8           6.6              5       1   
  2       12.6       0.5           4.1             11   
  3      102.6       3.7           4.6             13       2
  4       43.5       1.6           2.8              7       1                      
  5       83.2       3.0           3.1              7       1    1            
  6       65.3       2.3           3.0              7       1
  7       29.0       1.0           2.5              6
  8       30.7       1.1           2.3              4       1
  9       51.2       1.8           1.1              4            1
 10        5.7       0.2           1.1              3       
 11       14.9       0.5           1.8              2
 12       25.8       0.9           0.8              5       1
 13       23.9       0.9           2.0              3       1                                    
 14        0.1       0.0           0.7              2                    
 15       12.4       0.4           0.8              2            
 16        0.7       0.0           0.3              2
 17        7.1       0.3           1.5              1
 18       -0.2       0.0           1.1              2       
 19       38.5       1.4           0.4              2       1
 20        5.8       0.2           1.3              2              
 21        9.7       0.0           0.4              1       
 22        7.9       0.3           0.5              2
 23       34.4       1.2           0.5              4
 24        0.4       0.0           1.0              1            
 26       41.3       1.5           0.2              1            1
 27        2.1       0.1           0.1              1
 28       14.0       0.5           0.5              1
 30        4.0       0.1           0.7              1
 32        0.0       0.0           0.3              1
 33        0.5       0.0           0.1              1
 34        0.0       0.0           0.0              1
 37       -0.1       0.0           0.1              2
 42        0.3       0.0           0.0              1
 43       29.4       1.1           0.4              1       1
 44       -0.5       0.0           0.3              1
 47       13.0       0.5           0.2              1
 50        0.9       0.0           0.1              1
 54        8.7       0.3           0.1              1
 66        3.8       0.1           0.0              1
 70       10.0       0.4           0.0              1
        1105.3

There’s not much talent to cluster. The best player, Nomar, was picked early. Konerko, who may end up the second best, was also taken early.

The four biggest misses to date are all players that come from small niches – Vazquez from a PR HS, Koskie from a Canadian C, Polanco from JC and Foulke who transitioned from a middling starter to an excellent closer.


Part 6: Players by School

      totWARP3     20+WARP      totPlayers      20+Players    totPercent   20+Percent
HS       423.8       230.0           52                8           43            39
JC       123.1        89.3           15                3 
  C       558.4       363.4           69               10           57            61

The most notable thing is how low the totals are across the board. This is a rare instance when the C group widens the gap when looking just at the “20+” columns. That will probably reverse over time.

All HS players over 20 WARP3

                                    
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       5      140      Mon       J Vasquez*       RHP        HS          43.9
  2       1       13       LA       Paul Konerko*      C        HS          34.9
  3       3       71      Min       AJ Pierzynski*     C        HS          28.9
  4       8      207      Mil       Ron Belliard*     SS        HS          28.5
  5       1        2      Oak       Ben Grieve*       OF        HS          25.9
  6       6      161      Sea       Joe Mays*        RHP        HS          24.0
  7      13      355      Bos       Carl Pavano*     RHP        HS          23.5
  8       1       20      NYM       Terence Long*     OF        HS          20.4

Vazquez and Konerko have both been good to very good players, but there’s definitely an air of disappointment about Vazquez (even outside of NY) and I suspect Konerko will feel some of that as well in the last couple years of his deal. Pierzynski is a solid catcher and Belliard has been an adequate regular. Grieve won the RoY and quickly flamed out. So far Pavano is most notable for being traded for Pedro, banging starlets and cashing big checks from the Yankees. Come to think of it, it’s hard to call that a disappointment.

Obviously, this is a very thin group though.

All JC/CC players over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1      19      530      Stl       Placido Polanco*  SS        JC          38.5
  2      43     1193      Hou       Julio Lugo*       SS        JC          29.4
  3      12      331       KC       Jose Rosado      LHP        JC          21.4

This group would look a lot better if the Royals hadn’t ridden Rosado into the ground, but this is a solid group of late round JC players.

All C players over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1       12      Bos       N Garciaparra*    SS         C          63.6
  2       9      256       SF       Keith Foulke*    RHP         C          43.2
  3       1       14      Sea       Jason Varitek*     C         C          42.7
  4      26      715      Min       Corey Koskie*     3B         C          41.3
  5       4      101      Cle       Danny Graves*    RHP         C          32.6
  6       1        3       SD       D Hermanson*     RHP         C          31.9
  7       3       72      Cin       Aaron Boone*      3B         C          31.6
  8       1        8      Min       Todd Walker*      2B         C          31.5
  9       1s      29      NYM       Jay Payton*       OF         C          24.7
 10       5      144       SF       Bobby Howry*     RHP         C          20.3

Again, this is a pretty thin group, but at least the top three have been very, very good to the Sox. And actually the bottom of the list contains a bunch of short term Sox too. If they can just snag Graves, Koskie and Boone they’ll have had the whole set.

[philly sox fan]

Part 7: Players by Position

                 P         Pos       C       INF       OF       
totWARP       510.7      594.6     128.1    323.1    143.4
20+WARP       240.8      442.0     106.6    264.4     71.0

totPlayers      73         63        12      31        20
20+Players       8         13         3       7         3

The catchers and infielders are the strength of this draft. The pitchers are thin and the outfielders are terrible.

All Pitchers over 20 WARP3

           
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       5      140      Mon       J Vasquez*       RHP        HS          43.9
  2       9      256       SF       Keith Foulke*    RHP         C          43.2
  3       4      101      Cle       Danny Graves*    RHP         C          32.6
  4       1        3       SD       D Hermanson*     RHP         C          31.9
  5       6      161      Sea       Joe Mays*        RHP        HS          24.0
  6      13      355      Bos       Carl Pavano*     RHP        HS          23.5
  7      12      331       KC       Jose Rosado      LHP        JC          21.4
  8       5      144       SF       Bobby Howry*     RHP         C          20.3

Are there any aces? No. Vazquez was supposed to be one, but he isn’t.

Are there four good #2/3 quality starters? No, only Vazquez really qualifies. Rosado might have developed into one if he hadn’t blown out his arm. Pavano is being paid like one, but that doesn’t count (except to him).

Are there any closers or special relievers? Yes, Foulke is right there with Hoffman and Wagner as the best of the non-Rivera closers of his era.

Did MLB as an industry do a good job clustering talent? No, there wasn’t a lot of talent to cluster, but once again the Expos ability to find talent from the PR HS ranks is the only really notable thing.

All Catchers over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1       14      Sea       Jason Varitek*     C         C          42.7
  2       1       13       LA       Paul Konerko*      C        HS          34.9
  3       3       71      Min       AJ Pierzynski*     C        HS          28.9

That’s a lot of recent WS rings. Konerko didn’t last as a catcher, but even removing him leaves two good good starting catchers. That’s a good draft for catchers.

All Infielders over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1       12      Bos       N Garciaparra*    SS         C          63.6
  2      26      715      Min       Corey Koskie*     3B         C          41.3
  3      19      530      Stl       Placido Polanco*  SS        JC          38.5
  4       3       72      Cin       Aaron Boone*      3B         C          31.6
  5       1        8      Min       Todd Walker*      2B         C          31.5
  6      43     1193      Hou       Julio Lugo*       SS        JC          29.4
  7       8      207      Mil       Ron Belliard*     SS        HS          28.5

The group is pretty thin behind Nomar and that’s with the benefit of a couple good JC players. That means the HS and C ranks were very thin.

Are the HS infielders clustered at the top? There weren’t really any good HS infielders (well, Konerko was a 1st rd pick if you want to count him). Belliard is a late round success but he’s just decent.

Are there a lot of mid-round college sleepers? Only Koskie from a small Canadian college. In the same way the Expos did well in this era with overlooked PR players, the Twins have recently managed to find a couple good players from Canada. Finding little niches like that is one of the ways that the better small revenue teams manage to succeed.

All Outfielders over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
 15       1        2      Oak       Ben Grieve*       OF        HS          25.9
 16       1s      29      NYM       Jay Payton*       OF         C          24.7
 20       1       20      NYM       Terence Long*     OF        HS          20.4

For what it was worth, the A’s and the Mets certainly cornered the OF “talent” from this draft – even sharing the careers of a couple of them. That’s just not saying all that much. On the plus side they were clustered in the first round. If you wanted any kind of outfield production from this draft you had to get it early.

On the down side is their actual careers.

Part 8: Players by Team

The next table ranks teams by their total WARP3 production. That can sometimes be deceiving so I’ll also break the teams down into smaller groups as well.

Rank   Team     WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
  1      Min     109.1      Koskie (41.3), Walker (31.5), Pierzynski (28.9)
  2      Bos      92.3      Garciaparra (63.6), Pavano (23.5)
  3      Hou      77.9      Lugo (29.4), Halama (19.1), Elarton (14.2)
  4      NYM      76.1      Payton (24.7), Long (20.4), Wilson (14.3)
  5       SF      69.0      Foulke (43.2), Howry (20.3)
  6      Sea      68.4      Varitek (42.7), Mays (24.0)
  7      Mon      66.9      Vasquez (43.9)
  8      Cle      63.0      Graves (32.6), Wright (14.8), Branyan (11.6)
  9      Stl      50.2      Polanco (38.5)
 10      Cin      47.1      Boone (31.6)
 11       KC      44.3      Rosado (21.4)
 12       LA      41.4      Konerko (34.9)
 13      Mil      40.4      Belliard (28.5)
 14      Tex      39.7      Brower (16.3), Podsednik (14.1)
 15      Det      38.4      Trammell (14.3), Roberts (14.0)
 16      Oak      34.6      Grieve (25.9)
 17       SD      32.9      Hermanson (31.9)
 18      Tor      21.1      Woodward (8.7)
 19      Ana      18.2      Dickson (8.0), Holtz (7.1)
 20      CWS      16.8      Johnson (9.6)
 21      Fla      14.5      Meadows (13.4)
 22      Cub      12.9      Farnsworth (13.0)
 23      Phl       8.0      Magee (3.3)
 24      Pit       7.6      Anderson (7.6)
 25      Atl       6.6      Helms (5.7)
 26      NYY       4.2      Buchanan (4.3)
 27      Col       2.6      Hackman (2.7)
 28      Bal       1.1      Fussell (0.7)

Did three teams have great drafts? No just one. Nomar was the only great player in the draft and Sox got him.

Rank   Team     WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
  2      Bos      92.3      Garciaparra (63.6), Pavano (23.5)

Were there a half dozen very good drafts and another half dozen good, above average drafts? Maybe. I’ve listed them that way, but mostly because I cut these players breaks for not having as much time to produce.

Rank   Team     WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
  1      Min     109.1      Koskie (41.3), Walker (31.5), Pierzynski (28.9)
  7      Mon      66.9      Vasquez (43.9)
  5       SF      69.0      Foulke (43.2), Howry (20.3)
  9      Stl      50.2      Polanco (38.5)
  6      Sea      68.4      Varitek (42.7), Mays (24.0)
 12       LA      41.4      Konerko (34.9)

  3      Hou      77.9      Lugo (29.4), Halama (19.1), Elarton (14.2)
 16      Oak      34.6      Grieve (25.9)
 17       SD      32.9      Hermanson (31.9)
  4      NYM      76.1      Payton (24.7), Long (20.4), Wilson (14.3)
  8      Cle      63.0      Graves (32.6), Wright (14.8), Branyan (11.6)
 10      Cin      47.1      Boone (31.6)
 13      Mil      40.4      Belliard (28.5)

The Twins had a very typical successful “Twins draft” – multiple solid players, but not much star power. Vazquez and Foulke were both good enough pre-FA that you can say Mon and SF had very good drafts just getting them. Polanco, Varitek and Konerko – although all very good players overall – did not produce all that much pre-FA. It’s a little generous to consider those very good drafts.

The second group of teams is stretched a bit as “good, above average drafts”. They are – mostly – in context of this draft, but I could probably categorize them a little more harshly.

Did half the teams have mediocre to bad drafts? Yes, even being a little generous in the groups above there are fourteen teams that didn’t get much from this draft. The Royals’ draft with Jose Rosada is a good example of a team that probably had a good draft, but their failure to develop that talent makes that distinction irrelevant. What – something to do with the Royals irrelevant?

Rank   Team     WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
 11       KC      44.3      Rosado (21.4)
 14      Tex      39.7      Brower (16.3), Podsednik (14.1)
 15      Det      38.4      Trammell (14.3), Roberts (14.0)
 18      Tor      21.1      Woodward (8.7)
 19      Ana      18.2      Dickson (8.0), Holtz (7.1)
 20      CWS      16.8      Johnson (9.6)
 21      Fla      14.5      Meadows (13.4)
 22      Cub      12.9      Farnsworth (13.0)
 23      Phl       8.0      Magee (3.3)
 24      Pit       7.6      Anderson (7.6)
 25      Atl       6.6      Helms (5.7)
 26      NYY       4.2      Buchanan (4.3)
 27      Col       2.6      Hackman (2.7)
 28      Bal       1.1      Fussell (0.7)

That's it for the single draft reviews. Hopefully I'll be able to finish summaries of most of the eight parts next week prior to the draft on Tues the 6th.