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[philly sox fan]

1992 Draft Review

Part 1: Shape of Draft

        Y0   Y1   Y2   Y3   Y4   Y5   Y6   Y7   Y8   Y9  Y10  Y11  Y12  Y13  
HS      18   19   20   21   22   23   24   25   26   27   28   29   30   31  
 C       21   22   23   24   25   26   27   28   29   30   31   32   33   34  

WARP     0    2   10   46   86  121  132  142  178  152  133  116   91   91  
%pk      0    1    5   26   48   68   74   79  100   85   75   65   51   51   

#Pl      0    2   11   57   70   80   90   86   83   62   58   54   44   36  
3        0    0    1    5   12   13   12   15   10   12   16   14    8    8  
6+       0    0    0    0    1    3    6    4   13    7    4    4    3    4  
Tot      0    0    1    5   13   16   18   19   23   19   20   18   11   12

This is a relatively weak draft. The previous drafts had peak seasons at or near 200 WARP3. This draft has just one season with more than 152 WARP3. It’s not really obvious from the Y4 and Y11 indicators, but this is a college oriented draft. It’s just not an especially good one so there isn’t a quick ramp up in production.

The pattern for “#Pl” is typical.

The pattern for “3” players is typical of a college draft with a jump close to peak levels in Y4, but the number of players per season is pretty low during peak production.

There’s an odd Y8 spike in 6+ WARP3 seasons, but there generally were not very many of these seasons per year and despite the college orientation there were very few before Y6. Again, I think that suggests that while college players dominated they were nevertheless not all that good.

Strong drafts peaked with 25-30 player seasons above 3 WARP3. This one peaked at 18-23 player seasons.

Part 2: Types of Players

                         WARP3     # players    total players    % of players
                           100+          0             0                 0
                            90           0             0                 0
                            80           0             0                 0
                            70           2             2                 1
                            60           2             4                 3
                            50           1             5                 3
                            40           4             9                 6
                            30           3            12                 8
                            20          10            22                14
                            10          14            36                24   
                             0          93           129                85
                            <0          23           152               100

We’ve now at a point where only a ridiculously great player like Alex Rodriguez in the 1993 draft has had enough time to clear 80 WARP3 for a career to date total. A couple players in this draft have a shot at 100 WARP3 and another should make 80 WARP3, but the draft is very thin. None of the players currently less than 60 WARP3 are likely to exceed that threshold and only a couple more players have a chance to exceed 20 WARP3. The draft will probably finish with just four players above 60 WARP3 and 25 players above 20 WARP3.

Part 3: Top 40 Players

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1        6      NYY       Derek Jeter*      SS        HS          76.9
  2       2       58      Oak       Jason Giambi*     3B         C          76.2
  3       1       23      Pit       Jason Kendall*     C        HS          65.8
  4       1s      35       KC       Johnny Damon*     OF        HS          61.4
  5      12      336      Det       Bob Higginson*    OF         C          52.0
  6       1       28      Fla       Charles Johnson*   C         C          49.8
  7      24      678      Tex       Rich Aurilia*     SS         C          44.4
  8       2       44       KC       Jon Lieber*      RHP         C          43.6
  9       1       19      Tor       Shannon Stewart*  OF        HS          40.8
 10       1       22      Tex       Rick Helling*    RHP         C          37.4

There’s slightly more C players, but the HS players are a little better at the very top. While it’s a very weak draft, MLB as an industry did a great job of finding the few good players at the top of the draft. Higginson is the only significant miss. Aurilia ranks very highly because of the weakness of the draft and his one great fluke year. Outside of that season he hasn’t been especially good.

The Yankees certainly have a ton of money tied up in players at the top of the draft so they’re hoping there’s a lot of life still left for the top of the draft. Jeter is a great player well on his way to the HoF. Giambi is still a very good offensive player. He has a chance to exceed 100 WARP3 for his career, but he won’t be a serious candidate for the HoF. Kendall was a very good player although now he’s just a dead weight with a ridiculous contract. Damon is a very good player.

The rest of the players in the top 10 are nothing special.

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
 11       1        1      Hou       Phil Nevin*       3B         C          36.7
 12       6      155      Mon       Jose Vidro*       2B        HS          35.4
 13      11      319      Col       Craig Counsell*   SS         C          29.8
 14       1        9      NYM       Preston Wilson*   OF        HS          28.8
 15       1       10       KC       Michael Tucker*   SS         C          27.4
 16       3       84      Det       Chris Gomez*      SS         C          25.6
 17       1        4      Bal       Jeffrey Hammonds* OF         C          25.1
 18      10      280      Det       F Catalanotto*    2B        HS          22.6
 19       1        2      Cle       Paul Shuey       RHP         C          22.3
 20      39     1006      Sea       Raul Ibanez*      OF        CC          21.8

Nevin had some good years as a late bloomer. Vidro was a good player before he tore up his knee, but after that there isn’t all that much here. Maybe Wilson should be considered a “good” player. Most of these players are still active, but they’re not going to significantly improve their career totals.

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
 21       6      164      Mil       Scott Karl       LHP         C          20.9
 22      24      662      NYY       Mike Dejean*     RHP         C          20.7
 23      50     1391       SF       Marvin Benard     OF         C          19.0
 24       1       14      Sea       Ron Villone*     LHP         C          17.8
 25      14      403      Col       Juan Acevedo     RHP        CC          17.7
 26      23      642      Sea       Ryan Franklin*   RHP        JC          17.4
 27      36     1007      Stl       TJ Matthews      RHP         C          16.5
 28       6      160      Cal       Billy Simas      RHP        CC          14.0
 29      18      492      Bal       G Stephenson     RHP        JC          13.6
 30      25      711      Col       Q McCracken*      2B         C          13.4

These players are mostly generic back of the staff pitchers.

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
 31       2       63      Tor       Tim Crabtree     RHP         C          13.3
 32       5      131       SF       Doug Mirabelli*    C         C          13.1
 33      46     1293      Atl       Darrell May*     LHP        CC          12.3
 34       3       69      Hou       Chris Holt       RHP        JC          12.1
 35      27      764      CWS       B Donnelly*      RHP         C          10.2
 36       3       82      Sea       Chris Widger*      C         C          10.0
 37       3       70      Cle       Jon Nunnally      OF        CC           9.7
 38       6      159       SF       Aaron Fultz*     LHP        JC           9.6
 39       3       95      Col       Roger Bailey     RHP         C           9.4
 40      23      641      Phl       Bob Estalella      C        HS           9.3

Mirabelli can catch a knuckler and hit bombs. Donnelly resurfaced as a key member of the Angels bullpen for a couple of years, but that’s about it.

Part 4: Top Players Prior to Free Agency

Rank    Car Rank    Player               Pre-FA      Post-FA     
  1         2        Jason Giambi*         49.4         26.8         
  2         1        Derek Jeter*          46.6         30.3         
  3         3        Jason Kendall*        40.5         25.3         

  4         5        Bob Higginson*        35.1         16.9         
  5         6        Charles Johnson*      35.0         14.8         
  6         4        Johnny Damon*         32.9         28.5         
  7        10        Rick Helling*         32.8          4.6         
  8         7        Rich Aurilia*         30.0         14.4         

  9        12        Jose Vidro*           29.8          5.6         
 10         9        Shannon Stewart*      29.1         11.7         
 11        11        Phil Nevin*           28.4          8.3         
 12        14        Preston Wilson*       25.3          3.5         

 13        21        Scott Karl            20.9          0.0         
 14        15        Michael Tucker*       18.1          9.3          
 15         8        Jon Lieber*           17.4         26.2          
 16        13        Craig Counsell*       16.7         13.1         
 17        18        Frank Catalanotto*    16.5          6.1          
 18        17        Jeffrey Hammonds*     16.4          8.7          
 19        19        Paul Shuey            16.3          6.0          
 20        16        Chris Gomez*          15.7          9.9          
 21        22        Mike Dejean*          11.4          6.3
 22        20        Raul Ibanez*          11.5         10.3

This is the only draft in my study that did not include a player that cleared 50 pre-FA WARP3. Giambi barely missed because he was a late bloomer and he struggled somewhat for playing time as a young player under Tony LaRussa. I’ll spare you the Jeter didn’t make it because you can’t measure intangibles joke.

In total there are twelve players that cleared 25 pre-FA WARP3 and there’s huge gap between #12 and #13. The rest of the players in the draft are mostly role players with exception of Lieber who’s had a nice career.

Part 5: Players by Round

Round   WARP3    WARP/pk    WARP/pk (87-94)    Players    20   40   60   80   100
  1      448.5      17.3          17.9             21       6    2    2          
  1s      61.2       6.1           6.6              7       2         1     
  2      149.5       5.8           4.1             12            1    1   
  3       72.7       2.8           4.6             11       1            
  4       21.6       0.8           2.8              8                      
  5       24.8       1.0           3.1              6            
  6       85.9       3.3           3.0              9       2
  7        0.7       0.0           2.5              5   
  8        2.5       0.1           2.3              3
  9        1.2       0.0           1.1              4
 10       42.0       1.6           1.1              7       1       
 11       36.5       1.4           1.8              6       1                 
 12       63.6       2.4           0.8              5            1
 13        9.2       0.4           2.0              4                                    
 14       22.9       0.9           0.7              3                    
 15        0.5       0.0           0.8              2
 16       -0.5       0.0           0.3              2
 17        2.8       0.1           1.5              1
 18       13.6       0.5           1.1              1       
 19       -0.1       0.0           0.4              1
 20       -0.6       0.0           1.3              2              
 21        6.0       0.2           0.4              4       
 22        0.0       0.0           0.5              1
 23       34.8       1.3           0.5              4
 24       65.1       2.5           1.0              2       1    1
 25       12.0       0.5           0.6              3
 26        4.5       0.2           0.2              1
 27       15.1       0.6           0.1              4
 28       13.5       0.5           0.5              6
 29        1.6       0.1           0.2              1 
 30        3.4       0.1           0.7              1
 31        2.8       0.1           0.0              1
 32        0.1       0.0           0.3              1
 34        2.7       0.1           0.0              1
 36       38.3       1.5           0.3              2       1
 39       -0.2       0.0           0.0              2
 41        0.0       0.0           0.0              1
 46       12.3       0.5           0.1              1
 47        9.3       0.4           0.2              1
 48        4.8       0.2           0.3              1
 50       19.3       0.7           0.1              2
        1303.9

There aren’t many notable players, but they are clustered in the first couple of rounds. Of the players over 60 WARP3 all four were drafted in the first two rounds. Additionally, three out of five 40 WARP3 players were drafted in the first two rounds and eight out of fifteen of the 20 WARP3 players were drafted in 1st and 1supp rounds. It’s a bad draft, but what talent there was MLB did a pretty good job of identifying.

Part 6: Players by School

      totWARP3     20+WARP      totPlayers      20+Players    totPercent    20+Percent
HS       392.8       331.7           35                7         30 (34)       38 (39)
JC       150.9        21.8           21                1         12             3
  C       760.2       511.9           99               14         58 (66)       59 (61)

After two strong HS drafts, this draft flips back to a C orientation. The 20+ group narrows the gap and that should continue over time, but there probably aren’t enough good HS players to completely close it.

All HS players over 20 WARP3

                                    
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1        6      NYY       Derek Jeter*      SS        HS          76.9
  2       1       23      Pit       Jason Kendall*     C        HS          65.8
  3       1s      35       KC       Johnny Damon*     OF        HS          61.4
  4       1       19      Tor       Shannon Stewart*  OF        HS          40.8
  5       6      155      Mon       Jose Vidro*       2B        HS          35.4
  6       1        9      NYM       Preston Wilson*   OF        HS          28.8
  7      10      280      Det       F Catalanotto*    2B        HS          22.6

The top three are very good to great players. Stewart and Vidro have had good careers, but there’s not a lot of depth. There is excellent clustering with five out of the top six players taken in the first 35 picks. Vidro is a notable exception. The Expos of this era did a great job drafting Vidro and Javier Vazquez in the mid rounds from Puerto Rican HS. There was a noticeable decrease in quality PR players that coincided with their inclusion in the draft, but the Expos managed to find a couple good ones.

All JC/CC players over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1      39     1006      Sea       Raul Ibanez*      OF        CC          21.8

Ibanez kept the JC/CC players from being shut out with a late career production spike in Seattle.

All C players over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       2       58      Oak       Jason Giambi*     3B         C          76.2
  2      12      336      Det       Bob Higginson*    OF         C          52.0
  3       1       28      Fla       Charles Johnson*   C         C          49.8
  4      24      678      Tex       Rich Aurilia*     SS         C          44.4
  5       2       44       KC       Jon Lieber*      RHP         C          43.6
  6       1       22      Tex       Rick Helling*    RHP         C          37.4
  7       1        1      Hou       Phil Nevin*       3B         C          36.7
  8      11      319      Col       Craig Counsell*   SS         C          29.8
  9       1       10       KC       Michael Tucker*   SS         C          27.4
 10       3       84      Det       Chris Gomez*      SS         C          25.6
 11       1        4      Bal       Jeffrey Hammonds* OF         C          25.1
 12       1        2      Cle       Paul Shuey       RHP         C          22.3
 13       6      164      Mil       Scott Karl       LHP         C          20.9
 14      24      662      NYY       Mike Dejean*     RHP         C          20.7

Giambi has been a great player. Higginson and Johnson were both good players that declined very quickly on massive contracts. I believe they both spent their last season under contract out of baseball making 9-11M. Good work if you can get it. Lieber has also had a nice career, but after those four it’s mostly just depth players. Helling had a nice run in Texas, maybe he’s better than just a depth player. Aurilia had one great year. Nevin had a couple good years. With the exception of Giambi and Leiber these players are all nearing or over the end of the line of their careers.

The clustering at the top of the draft is pretty good. Five out of the top seven players were drafted in the first two rounds.

[philly sox fan]

Part 7: Players by Position

                 P         Pos       C       INF       OF       
totWARP       429.5      874.4     151.4    429.4    293.6
20+WARP       144.9      720.5     115.6    375.0    229.9

totPlayers      84         71        12      36        23
20+Players       5         17         2       9         6

This is a terrible year for pitchers. It’s a very good year for catchers. Considering it’s a weak overall draft the groups of infielders and outfielders are decent.

All Pitchers over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       2       44       KC       Jon Lieber*      RHP         C          43.6
  2       1       22      Tex       Rick Helling*    RHP         C          37.4
  3       1        2      Cle       Paul Shuey       RHP         C          22.3
  4       6      164      Mil       Scott Karl       LHP         C          20.9
  5      24      662      NYY       Mike Dejean*     RHP         C          20.7

It was definitely a lousy year to draft HS pitchers as not a single one cracked 20 WARP3.

Are there any aces? No. Lieber won 20 games once and the Phillies referred to him as sort of ace-like when they signed him, but no.

Are there four good #2/3 quality starters? No. Lieber is one. Without looking him up I’d say that Helling was probably good enough to count in Texas, but that’s it. It’s a two starter draft at best.

Are there any closers or special relievers? No again. I must have read that Shuey had “filthy stuff” in a Gammons’ column a hundred times, but he never stayed healthy and was never really a closer.

Did MLB as an industry do a good job clustering talent? Sort of. The top three pitchers were drafted in the first two rounds, but there isn’t much here to cluster.

All Catchers over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  3       1       23      Pit       Jason Kendall*     C        HS          65.8
  6       1       28      Fla       Charles Johnson*   C         C          49.8

The first round produced two All Star catchers. That’s quite good. Kendall was a dreaded HS catcher drafted in the first round although in this time period HS catchers were solid picks. Johnson was picked in the first round both out of HS and C. He’s one of those players that is categorized as a C player although his school type was mostly a money, tough negotiations issue.

All Infielders over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1        6      NYY       Derek Jeter*      SS        HS          76.9
  2       2       58      Oak       Jason Giambi*     3B         C          76.2
  3      24      678      Tex       Rich Aurilia*     SS         C          44.4
  4       1        1      Hou       Phil Nevin*       3B         C          36.7
  5       6      155      Mon       Jose Vidro*       2B        HS          35.4
  6      11      319      Col       Craig Counsell*   SS         C          29.8
  7       1       10       KC       Michael Tucker*   SS         C          27.4
  8       3       84      Det       Chris Gomez*      SS         C          25.6
  9      10      280      Det       F Catalanotto*    2B        HS          22.6

Jeter and Giambi give the group excellent star power, but the rest of the players are mostly just depth types.

Are the HS infielders clustered at the top? Jeter is, but Vidro was not.

Are there a lot of mid-round college sleepers? Just a couple in Aurilia and Counsell.

It’s really hard to fit the good players to any kind of a pattern when there aren’t very many.

All Outfielders over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1s      35       KC       Johnny Damon*     OF        HS          61.4
  2      12      336      Det       Bob Higginson*    OF         C          52.0
  3       1       19      Tor       Shannon Stewart*  OF        HS          40.8
  4       1        9      NYM       Preston Wilson*   OF        HS          28.8
  5       1        4      Bal       Jeffrey Hammonds* OF         C          25.1
  6      39     1006      Sea       Raul Ibanez*      OF        CC          21.8

Damon is very good. Higginson, Stewart and maybe Wilson were pretty good players. The clustering is good with three out of the four good outfielders HS players drafted within the first 35 picks. A large part of the HS resurgence in the early 90s was amongst outfielders. For the most part college outfielders didn’t pan out and a lot of 1st rd HS outfielders did.

Part 8: Players by Team

The next table ranks teams by their total WARP3 production. That can sometimes be deceiving so I’ll also break the teams down into smaller groups as well.

Note that this is the first draft with 28 teams.

Rank   Team     WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
  1       KC     136.6      Damon (61.4), Lieber (43.6), Tucker (27.4)
  2      NYY     101.8      Jeter (76.9), Dejean (20.7)
  3      Det      99.7      Higginson (52.0), Gomez (25.6), Catalanotto (22.6)
  4      Oak      92.8      Giambi (76.2)
  5      Pit      86.8      Kendall (65.8)
  6      Tex      86.7      Aurilia (44.4), Helling (37.4)
  7      Sea      80.1      Ibanez (21.8), Villone (17.8), Franklin (17.4)
  8      Col      79.1      Counsell (29.8)
  9      Hou      62.6      Nevin (36.7)
 10      Tor      54.7      Stewart (40.8)
 11       SF      49.6      Benard (19.0), Mirabelli (13.1)
 12      Fla      47.4      Johnson (49.8)
 13      Cle      42.1      Shuey (22.3)
 14      Bal      40.7      Hammonds (25.1)
 15      Mon      37.4      Vidro (35.4)
 16      Stl      35.4      Mathews (16.5)
 17      Atl      32.2      May (12.3)
 18      NYM      28.8      Wilson (28.8)
 19      Mil      24.3      Karl (20.9)
 20      Cal      22.6      Simas (14.0)
 21      Cin      17.2      Owens (9.2), Fox (7.9)
 22      CWS      14.9      Donnelly (10.2)
 23      Phl      14.5      Estalella (9.3)
 24      Min       7.8      Naulty (4.4), Serafini (3.1)
 25      Cub       3.5      Brown (4.1)
 26      Bos       3.5      Hudson (3.6)
 27       SD       0.9      Erdos (0.9)
 28       LA       0.2      Johnson (0.2)

Did three teams have great drafts? No and in a weak draft you wouldn’t expect there to be very many great drafts. Jeter and Giambi are great players, the teams that drafted them had great drafts.

Rank   Team     WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
  2      NYY     101.8      Jeter (76.9), Dejean (20.7)
  4      Oak      92.8      Giambi (76.2)

Were there a half dozen very good drafts and another half dozen good, above average drafts? Not really. The overall weakness of the draft squeezes the middle class as well.

Rank   Team     WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
  3      Det      99.7      Higginson (52.0), Gomez (25.6), Catalanotto (22.6)
  5      Pit      86.8      Kendall (65.8)
 12      Fla      47.4      Johnson (49.8)
  1       KC     136.6      Damon (61.4), Lieber (43.6), Tucker (27.4)

  6      Tex      86.7      Aurilia (44.4), Helling (37.4)
  9      Hou      62.6      Nevin (36.7)
 15      Mon      37.4      Vidro (35.4)
 10      Tor      54.7      Stewart (40.8)
 18      NYM      28.8      Wilson (28.8)

The top four teams drafted at least one very good player and that’s enough to have a very good draft. In its first draft Florida capitalized on Johnson’s decision not to sign out of HS three years earlier. I believe there were some reports that Boras purposefully scared off teams drafting before the Marlins in order to deliver CJ to his hometown team.
The other five teams drafted one solid player.

Did half the teams have mediocre to bad drafts? Yes. Seventeen teams produced very little from this weak draft.

Rank   Team     WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
  7      Sea      80.1      Ibanez (21.8), Villone (17.8), Franklin (17.4)
  8      Col      79.1      Counsell (29.8)
 11       SF      49.6      Benard (19.0), Mirabelli (13.1)
 13      Cle      42.1      Shuey (22.3)
 14      Bal      40.7      Hammonds (25.1)
 16      Stl      35.4      Mathews (16.5)
 17      Atl      32.2      May (12.3)
 19      Mil      24.3      Karl (20.9)
 20      Cal      22.6      Simas (14.0)
 21      Cin      17.2      Owens (9.2), Fox (7.9)
 22      CWS      14.9      Donnelly (10.2)
 23      Phl      14.5      Estalella (9.3)
 24      Min       7.8      Naulty (4.4), Serafini (3.1)
 25      Cub       3.5      Brown (4.1)
 26      Bos       3.5      Hudson (3.6)
 27       SD       0.9      Erdos (0.9)
 28       LA       0.2      Johnson (0.2)