294 replies to this topic

[Paul M]

Yikes, I fear it's come down to this.

Somewhere in between the two polars lies a place where we can analyze the Red Sox, discuss what has happened and what's likely to happen based on the evidence and our analytical power.

*No one-word replies, rants, and posts with 30 seconds of thought will be accepted. We need to restore the quality back and these standards will be implemented across the board

Some key questions are:

1. Will the Red Sox be in first going into the last weekend? Why? Why not? (any good writer can present both cases).

2. Who wins the last series of the year?

3. Is there something that can be changed this late in the season to achieve the desired result?

4. Would blowing the division lead and a playoff berth take anything away from last year? (For me, probably not, but I also wouldn't be popping in Faith Rewarded right away either).

For me, I am less sensitive to daily swings in performance and have been very calm all year. Probably because they won it all, but we've basically been in first place the entire second half and really before that. It's a different feeling and it may be even harder for this team to keep their edge as well. The season basically starts tonight.

[PedroKsBambino]

It's been a bad couple weeks (obviously) and the collapse of the starting SS, the inability of the closer to return to form, and the questionable status of the number one starter are, um, kind of problems.

But it's tied in the loss column with 12 games left. Seven of those twelve are at home, including three head-to-head with the Yanks. Three of the road games are against a fading Baltimore team playing out the string.

Things looked a lot better a few weeks ago, but this is where we are now. And if you offered me this scenario at the beginning of the year I'd have taken it.

I'm concerned about the infield depth, and it's telling Hanley was brought up, IMO. I don't know if Renteria is hurt but he probably needs a night or two off, and that's tough if Graffanino is hurt as well. Does anyone know his status for tonight?

It's a shame Youk is out; this might be a situation to try Mueller at 2B and Cora at SS, but without Youk its not in the cards.

This is the team that is going to make the final push. Other than massaging the middle infield a bit, I don't think there's major moves to be made. It's time to do it.

I don't think anything this year can take away from 2004, fwiw. In some ways, the magic is only amplified as time goes by and we realize that most teams, most of the time, can't do what that team did when the chips were down.

Edited by PedroKsBambino, 20 September 2005 - 08:58 AM.

[LateRally]

I know this has been broken down elsewhere, but this is as good a place as any to put down my take. Remaining games:

Sox         Yankees
---         -------
@TB         BAL
@TB         BAL
@BAL        BAL
@BAL        TOR
@BAL        TOR
TOR         TOR
TOR         @BAL
TOR         @BAL
TOR         @BAL
             @BAL

My predictions:
Sox: 2-0, 1-2, 2-2 for a 5-4 record heading into the final series
Yankees: 2-1, 2-1, 2-2 for a 6-4 record

So the two teams will be tied going into the final series. We take 2 of 3 to win the division. With this little time left, there's not a hell of a lot you can do. The starters have to perform, plain and simple. No excuses. No time for fatigue. Just get the job done.

Now what happens in the playoffs is a different story altogether.

[SaveBooFerriss]

The Sox problem is inconsistent starting pitching. Everything else is secondary. If the starters cannot consistently give them 6-7 good innings, then all the other moves is akin to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

The most baffling thing is the pitchers go 8 or 9 innings in one start, then less than 5 in the next. Maybe Tito has to pull guys out after 7 innings with a big lead when they are pithcing well to keep them fresh for the next start.


Was that rational enough?

[epraz]

I'm not going to predict how the rest of the season plays out, but it looks like that is going to be one hell of a series at Fenway to finish out the season. I can't wait.

[Return of the Dewey]

I'll put my $.02 in as to Question 4...I've always felt that this season was a new season. I never gave guys "benefits of doubt" b/c of what they did last season, nor will I take things away from the '04 Sox b/c of the quality of play by the '05 Sox.

Anyways, this team in September really is not much different than the team for most of the year. Wells/Clement/Arroyo are inconsistent, Schiling/Foulke are largely ineffective, BP is largely unreliable and also inconsistent, and outside of Ortiz/Damon, the hitting is streaky.

My feeling for the rest of the year is that we'll probably see more of the same. I think the last series against the MFY will decide the division but will not decide postseason berths (i.e. I think CLE/OAK will fall out of WC contention). Sox pitching will remain inconsistent (as it has all season), but I would expect their bats to go through another hot streak before all is said and done. That should be enought to make the postseason.

Edited by Return of the Dewey, 20 September 2005 - 09:09 AM.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

What's going on this season certainly doesn't take away anything from 2004. I don't think anything could. In fact, I'd say 2004 is cushioning some of what we as fans are feeling now. I'm nowhere near as worked up as I would be otherwise in the pre-2004 days, and in fact I see that the press isn't nearly worked up as they otherwise would be either. This ain't 1978, no matter how badly CHB and Buckley would like it to be.

The team appears to me to be extremely worn down. I don't think the pitching has been better or worse than expected with the notable exceptions of Schilling and Foulke. In retrospect we may have vastly underestimated how much the team depends on them back when we were sporting a nifty 5 1/2 game lead in August.

The offense is the trouble now; it's been in trouble since the end of the Angels series. Ortiz is the only guy really hitting, there are a bunch of guys slumping badly due to nagging injuries and weariness. It looks like the whole team could use a few days off, but of course they're not going to get that now and it's too bad for them if they want it. They'll just have to get through it somehow.

It appears that going forward Tito's going to lean on the live arms of Papelbon and Hansen a bit more than expected and continue to use Timlin in the 8th and 9th innings. If Foulke can have another good outing or 2 he may get eased into higher leveraged situations.

I honestly don't know what to expect from this team as they close out the regular season. IMHO they are at least as likely to run off a string of 5 straight wins as they are to continue scuffling around and losing ground to New York.

As for looking forward, I'm excited to see Pedroia, Papelbon, Hansen, and Youks all getting regular playing time next year. It's been a very long time since the Sox had young blood coming up through the system.

Edited by Smiling Joe Hesketh, 20 September 2005 - 09:09 AM.

[fox13weather]

It is easy to assume that this team is going to flip a switch and everything will be OK. This is not your 2004 Red Sox. Not even close.

If they find a way to hang on and win the division then they deserve even more props than they received last year. To win with this pitching staff and this defense would be a monumental accomplishment. This team looks EXACTLY like a team should look when you count on your bats to bash your way to a pennant. They look worn out.

On a side note, get ready for the gazillion off season articles on how Rent is going to put this season behind him and is going to be a much better player next year. He will have had a whole season to adjust to a new city and a new league and how is going to be a much better player going forward. Blah blah blah blah.

I am still shocked, almost 30 freeking errors and a pedestrian .27something average from a $10 million shortstop. Say what you want about O-Cab's average, it would have been higher playing half of his games in Fenway and his defense would be infinitely better then Rent's. More importantly, HE WOULD HAVE BEEN FUN TO WATCH. Not only am I tired of watching Rent play, I am more sick of his robotic attitude.

[Morassofnegativity]

Rationally speaking....the defense and pitching can only get better than the last couple games. The offense should turn around...it can't get worst(unless Ortiz quits).

Damon's error last night hurt bad. Renteria is not a smart player..at all. He's down right terrible. End rant.

This team should pound the Rays and hold them down enough to win a couple games. The Baltimore and Jays series should be winable.

[pvg44]

I'll try question 3. Obviously the starting pitching has to go to at least the 6th to prevent Tito from the Hobbesian choice of having to use Bradford in a situation where he shouldn't. The bigger issue to me is the hitting philosophy, though. Take Mueller, for example. I'd rather see him take a called third strike on 3-2 then hit a line drive out on the first pitch. The whole "wear down the opposing pitcher" thing has gone out the window. Perhaps that's what happens with players in slumps who try to overcompensate. I don't know, but it sure seems that way. I'd almost tell hitters 1-9 that they HAVE to take two pitches before swinging (at least the first time through).

That and Cora plays at short with Graf at 2nd, or even Machado (if Graf is hurt). Renteria needs to sit for at least 3 games in a row. He's killing this team in the field and in the 2-hole.

Blowing this division lead would take away from last year to me.

[yecul]

The Yanks are simply playing better ball. If the postseason aspirations depend on winning the final series (or even sweeping) then they're definitely in trouble. As was mentioned, it's mostly about the starting pitching. Wake has been very strong. Arroyo has gotten the job done, but is far from dominant. Wells is up and down. Clement hasn't been strong for some time. Schilling had one good start basically all season. They need to get improved performances at the front and it will carry over to the back end.

Hansen looks like he can definitely help the back end of the pen, which is unfortunate to say at this point in the season because I'm sure they'd rather not overuse him.

Even though it's not the primary concern at this point, the offense isn't as strong... which is strange to say after scoring 7. But, large parts of the lineup has been inconsistent or just plain bad/mediocre of late. Injuries have hurt them (Damon, Graff, etc) to be certain, but Tek hasn't swung the bat well of late. Even Manny isn't up to his usual self.

In terms of what can be done... I don't think there's much to do. They just need to get stronger performances. With 9 games coming up, I don't think going 5-4 is going to cut it. The Yanks should walk all over Baltimore.

Edit -- Thanks morass for reminding me of the other thing I wanted to say... The team is not as bad/inconsistent as it's been. They are certainly capable of better play. That said, is two weeks enough to turn it around?

Edited by yecul, 20 September 2005 - 09:17 AM.

[Maalox]

1. Will the Red Sox be in first going into the last weekend? Why? Why not?

My guess is not. The fact is that the Red Sox can only do one thing consistently well, and if you can stop them from doing that, they usually can't find another way to beat you. The defense is just plain bad at this point, the bullpen could be better and the starting pitching is not even looking that good anymore. More important, though, is the that the Yankees and Indians look at least as good as they've looked all year and there is no more cushion left.

The other side is that things have a way of changing overnight. Teams cool down while others suddenly get hot. It can happen. But that's the extent of the silver lining here - the Red Sox simply have to play better, and the Yankees and Indians have to play worse. If we continue playing the way we've been playing, and New York and Cleveland continue playing the way they're playing, the Sox will end up 2-3 games back in the Wild Card.

2. Who wins the last series of the year?

No way to know, but I'm convinced that the Red Sox' playoff chances will still be a matter of doubt when that series begins.

3. Is there something that can be changed this late in the season to achieve the desired result?

I suppose the bullpen could be improved if Hansen makes a big splash. A day off for Renteria probably couldn't hurt at this point.

4. Would blowing the division lead and a playoff berth take anything away from last year?

Absolutely not.

[Return of the Dewey]

It appears that going forward Tito's going to lean on the live arms of Papelbon and Hansen a bit more than expected

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I guess this is a good a forum as any to raise the rational discussion of whether Tito will and whether Tito should lean on live arm of Hansen. I've never been one to favor bringing guys up to "just get a taste"...if they're called up they should play, and should continue to play as long as they're effective IMO. I would hope that we see some more of Hansen over the last dozen or so games, but I don't know. Tito's BP usage has been puzzling at times (e.g. is there a good reason to have Bradford pitch to Crawford?).

I'm also wondering if moving Edgar down in the order will accomplish anything...of course, there's no easy replacement in 2-hole right now if Graff is hurt, but even if he is hurt, I'd think about batting Cora 2nd...he's been pretty effective at moving runners along.

[PedroKsBambino]

Dewey, I think the reality (and sadly so) is that Hansen is at worst the third-best pitcher in the bullpen at this point. That's why he's up, and that's why he'd be used.

Foulke does not seem likely to get back enough at this point to earn the trust back. Myers and Bradford are useful but extraordinarily limited.

What we are looking at is Timlin and two rookies as the "hi lev" guys I think. And while it's scary and it probably won't work, isn't that putting the best available guys into the role?

[Fratboy]

1. Will the Red Sox be in first going into the last weekend? Why? Why not? (any good writer can present both cases).

My brain says yes, my heart says yes, my gut says no. I think they go 3-3 on this road trip, and either split or go 3-1 against the Jays. Unfortunately, that may not be enough. I’d printed out schedules earlier in the day and sketched things out. I projected the Sox to be 95-67, the Yankees 91-71, and the White Sox and Indians tying with a 97-65 record, the White Sox winning the division thanks to those early season wins against the Tribe. After watching last night’s game, my optimism may have been unfounded. The Red Sox are doing a terrible job of executing fundamentals. Pitching, on the whole, has been reasonably solid, but the bats have gone dry.

2. Who wins the last series of the year?

The Red Sox, but it may not matter at that point.

3. Is there something that can be changed this late in the season to achieve the desired result?

Pepper in the jock straps and superballs in the bats, perhaps? Beats me – I’m just a fan and have no idea how to get into the players’ heads. They know what’s going on, they know they’re playing for a title, and they know immortality is on the line.

4. Would blowing the division lead and a playoff berth take anything away from last year? (For me, probably not, but I also wouldn't be popping in Faith Rewarded right away either).

Absolutely nothing. As I’ve stated previously, they went for it last year, and this year and next year are retooling years for the Red Sox, though thanks to a weakened division, they’ll remain in contention all season long unless the Blue Jays go 2005 White Sox or 2001 Mariners on the league. The 2007 team will be very exciting to watch, and the 2006 team will be interesting, as we’ll continue to see an infusion of young talent with grizzled veterans. Think Moneyball with money, though Theo will need to be more thoughtful this offseason (Renteria, Wells, and Clement don’t scream “value”).

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I guess this is a good a forum as any to raise the rational discussion of whether Tito will and whether Tito should lean on live arm of Hansen.  I've never been one to favor bringing guys up to "just get a taste"...if they're called up they should play, and should continue to play as long as they're effective IMO.  I would hope that we see some more of Hansen over the last dozen or so games, but I don't know.  Tito's BP usage has been puzzling at times (e.g. is there a good reason to have Bradford pitch to Crawford?).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

My best guess is that Tito will use Hansen in spots, and if he's effective he'll use him some more assuming Hansen doesn't experience a relapse of the dead arm symptoms he had a few weeks ago. This is the way Tito used Papelbon as well.

Theo and friends were at Hadlock last week personally scouting Hansen, so they must feel he can contribute with that hard stuff he throws. While obviously you don't want to get him injured, we are in a pennant race here and I think they'll need him if they want to make the playoffs.

[Tudor Fever]

In response to #4: It's incredibly hard to repeat, and I have felt from last November on more optimistic about the 2006 team than the 2005 team. That said, this could be a painful ending, but in no way will it take away from what happened in 2004.

As for the other questions:

1. It depends on whose overtired aging veterans can avoid massive slumps. So far, it's theirs.

2. Home field edge makes us the clear favorite.

3. Giving a rested Petagine one or more starts at 1B might jump-start the offense.

Be nice if the teetering White Sox were to completely tip over; that woudl give us another out.

[Return of the Dewey]

What we are looking at is Timlin and two rookies as the "hi lev" guys I think.  And while it's scary and it probably won't work, isn't that putting the best available guys into the role?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I totally concur with that strategy, but my question is whether Tito will implement it? I know, no way we will know, but it'll be interesting to see. He seems to have developed "trust" in Papelbon, and that will continue, but it's Hansen that is the question mark as to usage.

[DJnVa]

Without a total collapse by either team, or a 9-1 run be either team, it's going to come down to that final weekend. With everything that happened this year, I'll take that.

That said, I think ER needs to sit down for a day. Do you roll the dice with Hanley for one game? I know you don't give rookies their first big-league action, at SS, in a pennant race, but at this point, is there a huge downside?

Will Hanley in the 9-spot hamstring this offense? Maybe you catch lightning in a bottle for that one night. It can't get worse.

[PedroKsBambino]

What were the reports on Hanley's defense like over the last couple months?

I don't care about his hitting, really. He's going to hack like almost every young player when they first come up, and it'll work or not in his first 10 ABs. If he can't (legitimately, not emotionally) be better than Cora defensively then we might as well just do Cora/Machado for a day or two.

[smastroyin]

1. Will the Red Sox be in first going into the last weekend? Why? Why not? (any good writer can present both cases).

Completely impossible to tell. Each of these two teams is capable of catching fire for a week and also of falling flat on its face for a week.

2. Who wins the last series of the year?

I guess you could see the answer to question 1. It's one thing to say that we should expect some kind of analysis or something, but this is three games. Anything and I mean anything could happen.

3. Is there something that can be changed this late in the season to achieve the desired result?

- Tell Papelbon to quit using the split finger.
- Stop using the OOGY's against their splits. Now is no time for seeing if they can handle expanded roles.
- Quick hooks on the starters when it is obvious they have nothing.
- Position players...no. What can you really do at this point? I guess getting Belli into a game like last night's would have been smart (he owns Hendrickson) but those opportunities are limited over the course of a dozen games. I guess we're not ready to talk about 2006 yet, but there are definitely some things I would change for the long term. One thing. for God's sake, on the last day of the season, if Mariano is in and the game is still meaningful, pinch hit Tek (I believe Wakefield is scheduled to start it). I don't even care who he pinch hits for. Get him in there against Rivera.

4. Would blowing the division lead and a playoff berth take anything away from last year? (For me, probably not, but I also wouldn't be popping in Faith Rewarded right away either).

Of course not. But last year is last year. This year will still suck if they fail. And if they fail to the Yankees you can be sure that all the Yankee blow hards will be right back at their pre 10/17/04 levels.

For me, I am less sensitive to daily swings in performance and have been very calm all year.

I think and have always thought that this is much easier for out-of-towners. One of the benefits of not seeing every game is that you get all your information from the boxscore and SoSH and don't have to watch the daily debacle, particularly in the field.

Edited by smastroyin, 20 September 2005 - 09:33 AM.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

What were the reports on Hanley's defense like over the last couple months?

I don't care about his hitting, really.  He's going to hack like almost every young player when they first come up, and it'll work or not in his first 10 ABs.  If he can't (legitimately, not emotionally) be better than Cora defensively then we might as well just do Cora/Machado for a day or two.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hanley's defense has been good from everything I've seen. He's a very smooth player who sometimes appears not to be trying because he's pretty effortless on his throws. This is all anecdotal so take it with a grain of salt.

[redsoxjamie]

Some key questions are:

1. Will the Red Sox be in first going into the last weekend? Why? Why not? (any good writer can present both cases).

My gut says that they will be tied with the Yanks. Cleveland will stay hot, and the White Sox won't collapse enough for the Indians + 1 AL East team to overtake them. The wild card is coming out of the AL Central this year. Which means that the winner of the NYY/BOS series at Fenway is the division champ and makes the playoffs, and the loser goes home.

2. Who wins the last series of the year?

I don't care if it's at Fenway. Right now, I have zero faith in the Red Sox to win this series.

3. Is there something that can be changed this late in the season to achieve the desired result?

Nope. Maybe the use of Papelbon and Hansen can help the bullpen. However, that's dependant upon them continuing to pitch well. We saw what happened to Papelbon last night. There's also a little tiny fangirl inside me that is screaming to get Keith Foulke some more work and hope he can get back in to form, but I don't know how realistic that is.

4. Would blowing the division lead and a playoff berth take anything away from last year? (For me, probably not, but I also wouldn't be popping in Faith Rewarded right away either).

No. No. No. No. No. If anything, it would just highlight how special last year was. World series championships are hard to come by. World series championships that are won by coming back from being down 0-3, 1 inning away from getting swept by your biggest rivals, and then turning around and sweeping the team with the best record in baseball . . . those are once in a lifetime experiences.

[Comfortably Lomb]

2. Who wins the last series of the year?

Since it's at home, odds say Sox win it 2-1.

4. Would blowing the division lead and a playoff berth take anything away from last year?

How does blowing the division lead and a playoff berth take away from last year's World Series victory? This is an absolutely ridiculous question unless it's forced into the conversation by some sort of apprehensive Yankees fan. If the Red Sox made the playoffs and lost in the first round, would that take away from last year? If the Red Sox lost to the Yankees in the ALCS, would that take away from last year? It the Red Sox lost in the World Series, would that take away from last year? Determining exactly what level of failure takes away from last year is just a silly arbitrary decision. Btw, failure and success aren't exactly absolutely either, but that's another discussion. So anyways, answer this: of all the World Series winners from the past, if they didn't win the division in the season following their World Series win, then did that take away from their title?

[15'sCementShoes]

1. My guess is they won't. MFYs are playing much better ball than them right now. It's possible the Sox will jolt back to life but I think the greater possibility is they continue this trend of listless performances.
2. Coin toss.
3. Pitching: Our starters need to just step up period. Tito will hopefully mix in the kids for an inning or two but I don't expect or think we should see major changes. I'd love to see Hansen pitch 1 or 2 middle innings if he continues to look solid and has the arm strength. Defense must improve but with the injuries I don't expect it to. Edgar is an all around mess and I wonder if he is mentally tough enough to turn it around. Tito should move him down to the 8th spot. He certainly isn't doing Rent any favors by continuing to hit him in 2. Simply put, we must hit like we are capable of doing. Tiz is carrying this team right now. As super human as he has been we can't expect him to continue(I actually wonder if he is frustrated with his teammates - see his comments in the Globe/Edes).
4. If we miss the playoffs then I don't think it takes anything away from '04. Different team, different season. If that happens though I won't be rationalizing this failure by the "at least we won it last year" thinking.

[Tudor Fever]

I don't care about his hitting, really. He's going to hack like almost every young player when they first come up, and it'll work or not in his first 10 ABs. If he can't (legitimately, not emotionally) be better than Cora defensively then we might as well just do Cora/Machado for a day or two.

My anecdotal two cents from seeing Hanley live a dozen or so times at Hadlock, and from seeing Cora over the years on TV, is (1) Hanley is a great athlete, but somewhat unpolished on defense (as he is on offense) and (2) Cora is a very good major league defensive shortstop. I'd prefer Cora but consider Hanley over Machado as the next option.

[LateRally]

I think and have always thought that this is much easier for out-of-towners.  One of the benefits of not seeing every game is that you get all your information from the boxscore and SoSH and don't have to watch the daily debacle, particularly in the field.

I disagree with this assessment. With the widespread availability of EI and MLB.tv, people can watch the games from just about anywhere. Likewise, people in New England can choose not to watch games day in and day out.

I think it has much more to do with individual personalities. For me e.g., while I fully appreciate last year and what the championship meant, this is a new year and a new team. I have been just as frantic and just as up-and-down as ever. And I will be angry and disappointed if we miss the playoffs, and if we make the playoffs, at every step beyond that where the team doesn't get the job done.

[Montana Fan]

Here's the deal. Do what it takes to make the playoffs. I don't think we are near as well positioned for a WS run as we were last year but this team still has a lot of talent and the first thing to do is to get by the Yanks or the Indians. I'd love to see them win the division but really only care that they make the postseason.

Unfortunately this team is exactly the type of team you don't want to have going into the playoffs. It's a team that relies on the bats way too much. It reminds me of the Sox teams of the 70's. Average pitching, below average defense and very good hitting. Could they win it all? Absolutely but a unique combination of factors including the hitters going on a tear would have to happen.

Ultimately the pitching staff is what's going to determine the Sox success through the remainder of the regular season and postseason. Without Shilling resuming the #1 role we're not going to make it out of the AL playoffs. Without a surefire ace this team will be lucky to squeak out an ALDS win. Combine some solid pitching performances with some very good hitting and we could reach the WS.

The only ace in the hole we have is the 2004 run. Many players who remain on this team know what it takes to win the WS. It's going to take a gargantuan effort for this squad to overcome it's defensive and pitching flaws but it is possible. I'd just say that the percentages are pretty low.

[yecul]

1. Will the Red Sox be in first going into the last weekend? Why? Why not?.

I'm inclined to say probably not. The Yankees have been very strong for a while now and they should feast on Baltimore. The BoSox have been very inconsistent for a while regardless of opponent. That said, they still have a half game lead and neither club is playing great teams. There's absolutely no reason to expect either team to be more than 1.5 games up/down entering the final series.

Also, it should be said that the division title may be moot in terms of making the playoffs.

2. Who wins the last series of the year?

I think this partly depends on the pitching matchups. But I can't see it being a sweep in either direction. I'd like to see the starters before making a call, but I'll say Boston wins 2-1.

3. Is there something that can be changed this late in the season to achieve the desired result?

Not too much. Just go with what works. Don't be afraid to have an early hook. Don't be afraid to switch up the lineup to fit in favorable matchups/be more efficient. And certainly don't be afraid to toss Hansen out there if he's up for it. Really though, what can you realistically change?

4. Would blowing the division lead and a playoff berth take anything away from last year? (For me, probably not, but I also wouldn't be popping in Faith Rewarded right away either).

No, absolutely not. 2004 was 2004. 2005 is a different season. That said, it'd certainly be a huge disappointment considering the build up and how the season has progressed. If they make it it's all on their shoulders. Of course, a healthy Schilling and Foulke and they coast into the playoffs, so you can't just shit on the team for it.

For me, I am less sensitive to daily swings in performance and have been very calm all year.

I find that I have been too. Certainly some frustrating times, but no huge swings. The reason being is that I always think World Series. I don't think division title or making the second round, the only question I really ask myself is can they win it all. Maybe I think they can and it doesn't work out, but that's ok, it's just about putting together the best you can.

I haven't seen this as a WS winning club because of the starting rotation and back end of the pen. They dont' have a dominant #1 let alone two of them. They don't have a dominant closer not even considering setup men. Etc... So, while limping into the playoffs would be nice and, once there, anything can happen, it just doesn't seem like it was going to happen.

Don't get me wrong, I want them to. I hope that they do. There's certainly talent here. Just not the, wow, Pedro-Schilling-Foulke images dancing in my head. When I think about how Boston is doing it's usually clarified with "well every team has holes", which is tough. The NL seems stronger regardless.

[Alacoldart]

Yikes, I fear it's come down to this.

Somewhere in between the two polars lies a place where we can analyze the Red Sox, discuss what has happened and what's likely to happen based on the evidence and our analytical power.

*No one-word replies, rants, and posts with 30 seconds of thought will be accepted. We need to restore the quality back and these standards will be implemented across the board

Some key questions are:

1. Will the Red Sox be in first going into the last weekend? Why? Why not? (any good writer can present both cases).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"Difficult to see, the future is." They said it on Baseball Tonight last night and I tend to agree: the team is looking tired, worn out. Too many grind-out games perhaps or too many mistakes to make up for? Who can really know? But the whole team looks tired, especially some of the pitchers, most of whom aren't exactly spring chickens.

As some have said, the starting pitching is the biggest issue. Curt Schilling dominated in New York, then got whacked around in Boston by the very model the Red Sox are based on. Tonight is perhaps the biggest start of the season for him simply because the team HAS to win and he needs to show that he can be counted on to be a stopper.

The disappearance of Matt Clement may have been the biggest blow, though. He is 1-3 in September so far, with an ERA of 7.36. That's bad, but it's mostly because of his last 2 starts (0-2), where he has pitched 7.1 innings and given up 13 earned runs (15.95 ERA). He will start against Baltimore next time out, a team against whom he has a good record (2-0) and numbers (4.05 ERA, 12 ER in 4 starts, 16 K). He needs to step-up. The off-day is going to be a big help.

Tim Wakefield has been the ace the last few times out and Arroyo has pitched like he did this time last season down the stretch. Wells had a bad game yesterday, but has generally been as advertised. Unfortunately, 3 starters do not a rotation make. Schilling and Clement need to right their ships. The bullpen has been better lately, but is still far from perfect.

The bats need to come alive too. They'll be facing Rodrigo Lopez almost certainly in Baltimore, whom they find it hard to beat most of the time.

2. Who wins the last series of the year?

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Depends who needs to. There are several games left before that big series and the Red Sox will have the luxury of an off day, while the Yankees will have to play straight through. Baltimore, Toronto, and Tampa Bay have nothing left to lose and will simply try to pad their win total by playing spoiler. All three teams will be tough to beat in this final stretch for both teams, so it will all come down to how well each team hits. If the Red Sox have a lead of more than 2 games heading into the final weekend, they can win one game and clinch (if they haven't already). If the Yankees take the lead, it won't be by much and they will have to win to stave off Boston...in Fenway, which is the toughest place to beat the Red Sox. You almost know that Wakefield, Schilling, and Wells will pitch that final series if Tito can finagle it that way. Those three give the Sox the best chance to take 2 of 3 or better.

3. Is there something that can be changed this late in the season to achieve the desired result?

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Maybe a shakeup of the batting order? Every time a team changes up its lineup, the results tend to be pretty good. It could be as simple as switching Manny and Ortiz's spots, but I think Renteria should be moved down the line in favor of Graffanino/Cora behind Damon. Both show a little more patience at the plate, something that's necessary for a speedy leadoff guy like Damon to attempt steals (which they need to start doing more of) and can drop one down in late-inning situations with runners on, leaving RBI chances for Manny and Tizzle. Varitek, so long as he continues to slump, needs to vacate the 5-hole and move to 6 or 7. He might even be a candidate for the 2-hole, simply because with Manny/Ortiz behind him, he'd get better pitches to hit. The rest of the lineup doesn't matter as much. Mueller should be left in the 8th spot and Renteria might be a candidate for the 9-hole, since he served as a leadoff guy a lot in the NL and the 9-hole is, to many, another leadoff spot of sorts.

I think some fielding drills are in order and it might be time to give guys a day off this week, BEFORE the off day, especially Renteria. Play Hanley or Cora at SS. Neither one can do any worse than ER in that short amount of time. Varitek might be a benching option in favor of getting Mirabelli some more ABs and maybe even Shoppach (the kid needs to get a hit). Hyzdu hits well against the D-Rays and should be kept in the lineup as much as possible in this series.

4. Would blowing the division lead and a playoff berth take anything away from last year? (For me, probably not, but I also wouldn't be popping in Faith Rewarded right away either).

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Absolutely not...but it would be a sad epilogue. They're not dead yet...but they seem to be fading away.

For me, I am less sensitive to daily swings in performance and have been very calm all year. Probably because they won it all, but we've basically been in first place the entire second half and really before that. It's a different feeling and it may be even harder for this team to keep their edge as well. The season basically starts tonight.

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Agreed. Last year was fun...let's do it again.

[JimD]

4. Would blowing the division lead and a playoff berth take anything away from last year? (For me, probably not, but I also wouldn't be popping in Faith Rewarded right away either).

Absolutely nothing. As I’ve stated previously, they went for it last year, and this year and next year are retooling years for the Red Sox, though thanks to a weakened division, they’ll remain in contention all season long unless the Blue Jays go 2005 White Sox or 2001 Mariners on the league. The 2007 team will be very exciting to watch, and the 2006 team will be interesting, as we’ll continue to see an infusion of young talent with grizzled veterans.

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Excellent point, and one that sadly has been lost on most fans. Too many people are acting as if the Red Sox are still in full-bore GFIN mode.

Consider the following. Suppose Sox management decided back at the end of July that they just had to go for it all in 2005. Papelbon/Lester and other top prospects plus Bill Mueller are shipped to the Marlins/Twins/etc. for A.J. Burnett and J.C. Romero and other help.

Knowing what we know today about Burnett and his mediocre performance since the trading deadline, plus the performance (or lack thereof) of various Red Sox players, plus Cleveland's incredible hot streak, would the Red Sox really be favored in the American League playoffs (never mind a return to the World Series)? I don't believe so - at best, they'd have a few more wins and be better situated to make the playoffs, but they'd be almost as big of an October crapshoot as they are right now.

Think Moneyball with money, though Theo will need to be more thoughtful this offseason (Renteria, Wells, and Clement don’t scream “value”).

Theo and company deserve serious criticism for Renteria.

Clement = Lowe, and is certainly capable of providing value over the remainder of his contract.

As for Wells, I blame that one on Red Sox Nation. As smart as we like to think we are, there was no way we as a group would have accepted a failure to replace Pedro, even though a suitable replacement wasn't available last winter once Pedro, Hudson and Mulder were off the market. In this case, Wells = Steve Avery in 1997 - a stopgap until the team can acquire a true replacement for Pedro in the near future.

JD

[happybooker99]

I'm reminded of last year.

There is one team that has spent most of the season in the divisional lead and another team that had an appalling early season (OK, May, but the point holds). The first team has lifted its foot off the neck of the team that's been in second place. The team that had the awful early season has developed into a winner in August and September. The two teams will meet in a crucial series in the ballpark of the team that has held the lead most of the year.

Last year, the team that made the late charge ran out of gas in terms of winning the division and got their lunches handed to them in that late season series. They still won the wild card and did reasonably well in the post-season.

I think the day off is going to be crucial. Thirty days without a break is a killer, and (even more than Renteria) may be what we look back on with loathing. Who would have thought that one lousy rain out with Chicago would have had such an impact?

I really don't have a prediction, either for where we are before the last series or where we'll be after. The thing that concerns me is that this has been a team that hasn't put together a consistent hot streak trhough the year. What's the longest winning streak? I'd guess no more than 8 games. But they have put together cold streaks. Unless they suddnly get very hot, I'd say htat 'stumbling' would be an accurate characterization of how they get to the playoffs.

Last year was a year of charges rather than a year of stumbles. That, almost as much as the fact of winning itself is what made the season special. This year, win or lose, won't be that way. Last year was a moment out of time and can't be affected by what happens tis year.

That having been said, last year is over. With a .5 game differential between the first and second place teams, it can be said that the real season is only starting tonight. It's time to get the season off to a strong start.

[PedroKsBambino]

How does Wells = Steve Avery? I know he's not remotely likeable but he's been way better than that IMO.

Avery put up a 6.42 ERA in 100 ip. Wells has a 4.49 in 170 ip, and that's skewed high because of a couple bad performances (which count, but do skew the ERA a bit). Let's see what he does his next two starts....if he caves like last night, maybe that's a signing to pan but right now I'm not sure about that.

[behindthepen]

Can the Orioles produce any offense? Their pitching has been pretty solid in September (3.56 ERA), but they are slugging .357. NY has 4 more games vs. BAL than we do, and that will dictate who has the lead on 9/30.

[yecul]

Wells has done about as good as you could have expected. Unless he's flat out on his game though, the superior offenses in the playoffs will probably eat him up.

[JimD]

How does Wells = Steve Avery?  I know he's not remotely likeable but he's been way better than that IMO.

Avery put up a 6.42 ERA in 100 ip.  Wells has a 4.49 in 170 ip, and that's skewed high because of a couple bad performances (which count, but do skew the ERA a bit).  Let's see what he does his next two starts....if he caves like last night, maybe that's a signing to pan but right now I'm not sure about that.

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IMO, both were acquired because the FO felt they had to appease the fans by overpaying for a big-name pitcher (albeit a flawed one) to replace a departed legend.

[LynnRoyalRooter]

I think that the thing that has frustrated me about this team (or the composition of this team more to the point) is that inability to have really any extended stretch of time where the Starting pitching, pen, and offense have clicked. The defense has been pretty conistently lousy all year, but that really isn't too much of a surprise. I mean, the offense has been the MOST consistent aspect of the team, but then in the last 3 weeks or so, the starters were going 7+ almost every time (esp Wells and, giving me hope that maybe the pen would look better because we could just use our "A" guys (Timlin/Paps/Sidearm twins) and things would be ok...

Then the offense sputtered a little bit...not without reason, The Unit shut them down, then Oakland shut them down...it was actually amazing that they won 2 games scoring a total of 10 runs in the 4 game series at home.

The thing that always made me feel good about last years team (vs. this years teams) is that I felt that if the Red Sox played their best game (series, whatever) that they would beat other teams best game (series). I don't feel like that as much this year...mostly because (obviously) Schilling/Foulke/Pedro (the 3 best pitchers on the team last year) are not 1)here 2)heatlhy...

Do I think that they can win the AL East?
Yeah they can but they cannot continue to play like they have the last week...The yanks are in the same spot as us, kind of and older team with injuries piecing it together game to game more than they are rolling to the finish...these are very similar teams for all the making fun that we tend to do of their roster construction...
The offense is very top heavy with Arod/Matsui/Jeter/Giambi carrying most of the load similar to Ortiz/Damon/Manny...

I would say that the Red Sox starters are better, at least based on track record and they had been pretty good up until the last 2 games...

Rivera is the best...he gives them an edge in the pen (this is not news, I realize this)

Both teams defense really sucks.

I think that the fact that the last 3 games are at Fenway is looming to be a larger and larger factor, maybe even larger than it should be. It will make for a hell of a weekend though...I am glad that I will be there for that...

Do I think that they can win the AL?
Man, Cleveland, with that bullpen, good enough SP, and the lineup that doesn't quit as well as no real injuries...That's not a team that I would want to play. I would still favor the Red Sox as currently constituted over the Angels, A's (without Harden, though it's close), Yanks and ChiSox. All these teams have flaws...so while we are concerned about the Sox sloppy play the last couple games...the other teams are not perfect. Hey, I realize that isn't a ringing endorsement or anything, but you take what you can get...

What needs to happen to have it all "come together"?
Tek having 2 days off this week will help. He's been brutal lately...really taking from the table at this point offensively, making the good part of the lineup very short. They need better ABs at this point...more pitches taken, fouled off...whatever...Basically I think that it is more likely that the offense "get hot" over the last 2 weeks than the pitching. It does worry me that it seems as if the only person that is going to get big hits at this point is Ortiz. Mueller/Rent/Tek/Nixon have been invisible lately...that's a bigger problem than the starting pitching in my opinion.

What does it all mean?
What I say, not a hill of beans in this crazy world, but the Sox have it in their hands, if they play well, they will beat TB, Baltimore, and Toronto 6/8 or so (at least I hope). They are going to have to win 2 out of 3 against the MFY that last weekend. Once again, if they are just playing their normal game, they will do that. The second half of the season they have lost only the 1 series (against the MFY) at home...We will have our best 3 pitchers going and EVERYONE will be available...

Everyone wished that the Sox had put them away a month ago, but they aren't good enough this year. Simple as that. But I think that anyone would take their chances in taking 2 out of 3 at home against the Yankees for a playoff spot. I am glad that at least (at that point in the season) we won't have to count on anyone else to beat them....

You want something done, you have to do it yourself.

Sorry for the babbling and no stats...but we have all watched the games, they play their normal game, you can live with that...they hit like they did against Oakland...no amount of career splits will matter...

Plus - you KNEW that it wouldn't be easy, right?

[SpinnersRock]

1. Will the Red Sox be in first going into the last weekend? Why? Why not? (any good writer can present both cases).

2. Who wins the last series of the year?

3. Is there something that can be changed this late in the season to achieve the desired result?

4. Would blowing the division lead and a playoff berth take anything away from last year? (For me, probably not, but I also wouldn't be popping in Faith Rewarded right away either).

1. Yes, they'll be in first place as they are not as bad as they have been playing lately. Hanson and Paps in the bullpen will give the team a boost and should make the pen more effective. Manny has yet to heat up again and when he does, then he and Papi will carry us. Hyzdu, Machado and Hanley will help in spot situations. Schilling pitches another gem as does Wake and Wells. The Yankees do not continue winning on the same pace as they have been.

No, the slump will continue as the regulars are exhausted and the injuries just take their toll on this team. Lack of consistency and lack of defense up the middle will hurt. The youngsters are not able to handle the pressure of a play off race and hurt more than they help. Terrible starting pitching. The Yankees continue winning and playing over their heads.

2. The Sox 2-1. But the division will be decided before the last series. Just a gut feeling here and not a scientific or stats answer.

3. Hanson in the pen has the potential to help quite a bit as does the continued use of Paps. Look to play Hanley or Cora more at SS. More Olderdude at first and sit Millar.

4. Nothing can ever take away from last year. Last year was magical!

The injury bug with Johnny is huge. If he isn't healthy enough then the combo of his injury and Renteria kill us with no defense up the middle. Also, THE starting pitching needs consistency over these last 4 series. Pitching and defense ... Pitching and defense ... Pitching and defense.

[Angel Santos in Red]

Would love to add more, or even fully answer the questions, but time is short so I'll only say this is where the Red Sox become either the guy in the ring after 11 rounds that reaches down -- with blood dripping -- and pummels their opponent, or they simply become the pummeled/defeated after 11 rounds. This year's script would certainly have you believe they are the latter (World Champs/barely holding on), but history could make a case for them as the former (86 year drought/second runner up to the Yanks almost annually/lesser spending vs. bugger spending). Think Cinderella Man, though neither side could be called the underdog. Or, similarly, The Warriors, having to fight through each gang (the Baseball Furies, the Turnbull AC's ... even the Orphans) just to get to the Rogues.

Both the Yankees and the Sox are tired, worn, hurt, reaching for help from rookies, has-beens and never-would-bees for help. It's a colossal match that pits slugger vs. slugger. Pitchers are reaching back and "throwing." Fellas are coming off the bench to aid and assist. If last night was going to only have one unlikely hero, it was going to be Crosby's HR and not Cora's game-tying double. Both managers are savvy. Owners are salivating. Fans are desperate. Writers are anxious.

Perhaps we should all just sit back and enjoy it for what it is -- a pennant race. The kind that our fathers, and father's fathers spoke of.

[bankshot1]

Rational?

ok,

it appears that Theo gambled and lost that the starting pitching adds of Wells, Clement and Miller would equal the loss of Pedro and Lowe. Wells and Clement have been very good at times and could come up big in the final 10 games and Theo could collect but they have also been inconsistent.


the loss of Schilling as the Ace was a debilitating all year long it put stress on the entire staff. For them to have a chance at the post-season, they need the Ace back.

Foulke, what can you say, just a miserable year fir him in every way.

most of the BP stunk, except Timlin

Renteria? The season from Hell

Millar? Chunichi bound?

Manny????

I can't say enough god things about Ortiz, Wakes, Varitek, or Damon. These guys play.

But

Too many guys are playing hurt/fatigued. Who do I blame Francona or the Fates?

this season reminds me of '78, Sox give up the lead in September and have a battle down the wire.

I'm just hoping for a different ending.

[thisyearisthe]

At this point, I just hope we're within 3 games come next Friday...

[Fratboy]

Just a general brain dump I’m putting out there, since it’s neither optimistic nor pessimistic:

As a denizen of Red Sox Nation, a Class of 2000 initiate into the Fellowship of the Miserable, I won’t not root for the Red Sox or root against them.

However, as a fan of baseball in general, the big story here is the Cleveland Indians. At the start of the 2002 season, they were a team on the precipice of a big decline, an overpaid team of veterans devoid of pitching talent (I’m looking at you, 2005 New York Yankees), and the GM responsible had conveniently left.

Mark Shapiro has done an amazing job overhauling the organization in the last three years, and should, no question, be the MLB Executive of the Year. The Indians could have turned into the Seattle Mariners, but through shrewd trades and strong drafting, has created a team that will dominate the AL Central for years to come, much like the 1994-2001 version of the team.

If the Red Sox don’t make the playoffs, I will root my ass off for the Tribe. The good people of Cleveland and the organization as a whole deserve to have a 2005 World Champions flag flying over Jacobs Field.

[PedroKsBambino]

There's some talk about the Indians in that AL Catch-all thread (whatever it's current name is) as well.

It's absolutely a great story. Though, it's becoming contrary to Red Sox interests for Cleveland to continue to win.

[Zupcic Fan]

I'll also take a quick shot at number 4: and it might be a bit different for me because I am not a lifetime Sox fan.

But once your team wins one, as a fan everything else becomes somewhat different. Bad losses and blown leads and all that stuff are still awful, but they're awful in a different way.

Yankee fans have even suffered. They lost an awful game to Seattle on Edgar's double, an awful playoff series to Cleveland because of Sandy Alomar's home run, that great ending to the Arizona World Series, and even the Florida Series, and the worst possible kind of loss to the Red Sox----but they have so many wins to counterbalance it that none of those things could have been as bad for them as, say, the Aaron Boon game was for Red Sox fans.

Now Red Sox fans have 2004---so the days of curses, existential explanations, all that stuff is done----there is always something to fall back on.

A horrible loss this year would be far worse for Indian and White Sox fans, because they have no win in their lifetime----just like right now that game with the fan reaching over Moises Alou is far worse to Cub fans than the Aaron Boon game is to Sox fans because they have nothing to take away the pain.

So this loss, if it happens, will be very annoying but definitely not that big a deal to me---first because I have come to expect it, I just don't think this team is that good, and more importantly, because of last year.

But I have to admit that this year will be much much worse for me if somehow the Yankees end up winning the World Series. Anything else I can live with.

Edited by Zupcic Fan, 20 September 2005 - 11:16 AM.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

There's some talk about the Indians in that AL Catch-all thread (whatever it's current name is) as well.

It's absolutely a great story.  Though, it's becoming contrary to Red Sox interests for Cleveland to continue to win.

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Cleveland's gone 42-21 since the ASB, Chicago has gone 33-34.

I dunno, as a story I think the Indians are fascinating, even if their continued success may now start to harm the Red Sox.

[LahoudOrBillyC]

It's absolutely a great story.  Though, it's becoming contrary to Red Sox interests for Cleveland to continue to win.

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I am opening rooting for the Indians. I have a bit of Indians loyalty, since my wife is from Cleveland, most of her family is still there, and I have been going to the Jake for 10 years in great seats.

But more than that, I want the Red Sox to earn it. I am not sure I can explain this well enough, since half this board is regularly asking for loyalty oaths, but I want the Red Sox to play well and deserve the division title. If the Red Sox win 92 games and the wild card and somehow get hot and win the World Series, I will be estatic. But right now, this is not a team that deserves anything to be handed to them. So I will root for the teams I like (Cleveland and Oakland, certainly) and hope the Red Sox play great the next two weeks.

[Paul M]

I screwed up in putting question #4 in this particular thread. It's more of a thought/opinion piece. My bad. I didn't mean to imply 2004 itself would be cheapened, but that media reaction and many fans would not appreciate what we did. And if we win that final series to get in, it may just be a nice appendix to '04.

I also wanted to comment to the point of out-of-towners being less sensitive to the daily grind, as well as not being as vested--not evne close to the truth. I've seen over 95% of the games from 2002-2005.

As far as losing one fewer game the rest of the way than NY, it will come down to our offense. If Damon, Varitek, and Nixon join Ortiz and at least put up their year-to-date OPS the rest of the way, we can prevail. Damon looked like he was much more comfortable last night--at least at the plate.

Moreover, I think we need to make pitchers work harder early on, and someone else said this already that we're giving away ABs. One thing about Cora is he tends to spoil pitches and I think keeping him over Bellhorn was actually a good move.

Of course, it's impossible to pick who wins 2 of 3 games, but the Sox will throw--

Wells ------should at least keep them in the game, but he's not a lock to do so
Schilling----has stepped up the most in the biggest games
Wakefield--has killed the Yankees for several years

Wang---rookie, not dominant, but very effective this season, and was decent vs. us in his one start, but rumor is that it will be...

Mussina--historically very tough on many of our key guys, but he's been out for awhile and not the same pitcher, which we could say about Schilling too.

Small--will the Aaron Small please stand up? Guys like him can be tougher than stuff guys who we are able to abuse by working counts. Still, he's Aaron Small.

Johnson--one of the best of his generation, though I like our chances a lot more at home

I could see it going to Sunday for the whole thing to be honest.

[yecul]

I didn't mean to imply 2004 itself would be cheapened, but that media reaction and many fans would not appreciate what we did. And if we win that final series to get in, it may just be a nice appendix to '04.

Well you know they'll try! However, I don't think anyone rational would do that if for no other reason than they are not the same club. There was a lot of turnover from 04 to 05. Totally different team even with a lot of familiar faces.

[redsoxstiff]

Finish in First?

If Curt is back in stride today I might revise my best guess...

We seem flat .
Damon is hurting and has trailed off ...
Renteria has been so far from his billing...
Papi needs nothing
Manny is definitely not Manny...he could light up and drag Nixon and Tek along...
Millar is carrying a limp bat...He would have to go totally orbital to approximate his past numbers...
Mueller is fine ...
The bench is more than trustworthy.

Clement is cement.
Curt is in the throes of finding his motor skills...
Wakefield is more solid than I can recall...ever.
Wells ...?
Arroyo can't be the backbone of this staff...

This is the major factor in forming a negative ...

The pen with the kids can do it...Timlin has taken the bit and is running hard ...age not withstanding.

Papelbon,Hanson,Delcarmen...I ask nothing and hope much.

My intuition says there is too much to overcome...but I said that for game 4...still,
my reason says no...

For the final series:

We can take two...we have been superb at home...

Effective changes at this stage?:

The changes could be estimating that the 'kids' will not be damaged if things go against them...and throwing them into the ultimate fire ...

My call...do it. It could make the team friskey...but probably not enough...

NOTHING could effect last year...it was so momentous that I have not yet wrapped my mind and heart completely around it...I admit that I don't wake up for a piss call thinking over and over The World Champion Redsox...I cannot think of any sporting event that could ever match that series...

We rose to Valhalla while the Yankmees dropped ,folded ,swallowed 82 years of crap in one seven game series...

So no...in fact, I'll be almost calm...Calm like I am for the Celts...16 wins carries them beyond my lifetime...The Sox can have some of that slack...

[Fratboy]

There's some talk about the Indians in that AL Catch-all thread (whatever it's current name is) as well.

It's absolutely a great story.  Though, it's becoming contrary to Red Sox interests for Cleveland to continue to win.

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Rational, Optimistic, Pessimistic, General, Suicidal... it's so hard keeping track of threads these days