15 replies to this topic

[The Gray Eagle]

Obviously a lot has gone unexpectedly wrong for the Red Sox this year, mostly injuries. Additionally, Beckett, Okajima and Wakefield have pitched horribly, compared to expectations.

But to win 68 games already, some things have had to go right. In addition to the obvious ones that have already been discussed, like Buchholz and Lester pitching great, the team has also gotten great production from some subs, minor leaguers and replacement players.

Hall, McDonald, Patterson, Kalish and Nava have combined for 790 plate appearances, and have put up a combined OPS of over .750. They've combined for 28 home runs and stolen 13 bases in 16 tries.

Those 5 guys have basically kept the team afloat while so many regulars were out. Back in April, the thought of so many plate appearances by these players would have seemed disastrous. And it only happened in response to utter disaster. But these guys have played far better than we could have hoped for.

On the other hand, Hermida and Cash put up 231 plate appearances of suck. The good news: all of the positive contributors are still around, (plus Lowrie, who I originally added to the list, but then took out because he was still highly regarded if ever healthy) while neither Hermida nor Cash should darken our batter's boxes again this year.

In the bullpen, Atchison, Doubront, Richardson, Manuel and Bowden have given us 82.1 innings with only 25 earned runs allowed, with 63 Ks and 31 walks. That's some excellent pitching from the minors and the fringes of the organization (albeit in mostly low-leverage spots and in Doubront's starts.)

That's helped to make up a bit for Okajima's suckage, the mediocrity of Ramon Ramirez and MDC, and the 22 innings of garbage thrown by Scott Schoeneweiss and Joe Nelson (21 earned runs allowed.)

The good news: all of the decent replacement pitchers are still with the organization, while Schoeneweiss and Nelson are long gone.

Going forward, maybe the players who've come through so far can keep it up, while the ones who dragged us down are gone for good.

Or maybe their bubbles will finally burst and we'll fall apart. Some of the pitchers and the outfielders will be counted on in bigger roles the rest of the way, so if we're going to win the 30 or so games required to make the playoffs, at least some of them will have to continue to come through.

Should be a tough call on the 10th Player award this year.

[AlNipper49]

Should be a tough call on the 10th Player award this year.

Honestly I think it's Bil Hall in a runaway

[Rasputin]

I don't know if it's unexpected but the emergence of Buchholz was not something we could count on. Similarly Adrian Beltre and David Ortiz have generally answered their question marks positively.

If Beckett and Okajima were pitching to career norms we'd be in first place.

[Koufax]

Jed Lowrie's .967 OPS.

[cwright]

Bard has been even better than I had hoped:
53.2 IP, 57 K, 31 H, 18 BB, for a 2.01 ERA, .913 WHIP, and 217 ERA+. That's just ridiculous.

Buchholz has emerged as a top-tier starter, and is in the midst of putting together his first full season of dominance.
14-5 with a 2.36 ERA, 1.193 WHIP...wow.

Lester has produced his best season to date, despite a rocky April:
13-7 with a 2.80 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 165K in 161 innings

Scott Atchison has had an unexpectedly useful season, producing a 110 ERA+ and stranding 18 of 24 inherited runners.
Felix Doubront has also been a serviceable 7th starter, and has some promise as a 22-year-old.

On the hitting side...
Bill Hall has certainly outperformed my expectations, at least in terms of his power. I think Tito's been using him brilliantly (playing the matchups whenever possible).

Daniel Nava was a boost to the offense, and an outstanding story. I'll be rooting for that kid as long as he's in baseball.

Darnell McDonald, despite being, well, Darnell McDonald, has had some huge hits for the Sox.

Jed Lowrie, once healthy, has been hitting the way I hoped he would 2 years ago. A .308/.429/.538 line is pretty impressive for a middle infielder.

Kevin Youkilis, while in the lineup, was an absolute force. He was actually having his best year to date, with a .975 OPS and 156 OPS+.

David Ortiz has been a whole lot better than I thought he'd be, particularly after watching his first couple of weeks.

And Beltre, offensively, has been a shock. He's having a monster year. I expected him to be a mistake hitter who performed against mediocre pitchers, but he swings hard and makes contact with balls I thought he'd have no chance at. He's also been hilarious to watch, between his crazy tap dances at the plate, his one-knee swings, and the whole head issue.

[Buckner's Boots]

Jed Lowrie's .967 OPS.

(SSS...)

[Rice4HOF]

Honestly I think it's Bil Hall in a runaway

That was my first reaction when I saw the 10th man mentioned. Darnell Mac is the only other guy who I would even consider for this, but I think Hall's versatility and extra power give him a clear edge.

[Eric Van]

Honestly I think it's Bil Hall in a runaway

Well, it's certainly not a runaway; Hall has a 1.1 WAR (FanGraphs) and McDonald has a 1.0. When you factor in clutch, McDonald has been more valuable at the plate, +0.27 WPA to -.27 (going into tonight).

Now, if by "10th player" you mean "the guy who has exceeded all expectations" (which was the way it was defined at one point in the award's history) in fact it's clearly McDonald, not Hall. Hall was a formerly great player coming to an organization with a good track record for getting the most out of inconsistent hitting talent. Everyone knew he would play everywhere on the field and everyone knew was capable of hitting like he has, the question was whether or not he could actually recover what he'd lost.

In contrast, here's McDonald's OPS vs. RHP and LHP the last four years: the first three are MLE from mlsplits and the last figure is his MLB numbers.

RHP: 679, 689, 727 (683 from 2005-9), 752
LHP: 721, 635, 873 (726 from 2005-9), 805 [SSS in the 2nd and 3rd seasons, figure that the reality is about 45 points better than the RHP numbers)

His platoon split is pretty much the same as it was in the minors (53 vs. 43) and smaller than his reputation. There wasn't any real reason to believe his 2009 ml numbers represented an improvement, at age 30, in AAA, over what he'd done there at ages 28 and 29 -- I mean, that's just silly. But he's been at least as good and has maybe even improved by another 25 or 30 points (I think their MLEs are a bit conservative). There were maybe two or three guys on the planet who thought he could do what he's done and fortunately they were all in the Sox F.O. Completely unexpected and eminently valuable.

[rglenmt]

I would vote Darnell MacDonald as the 10th Player. And although very pleased with Bill Hall's contribution, with Hall's ML experience, I think Hall should get votes, which likely will also go to Adrian Beltre, for Comeback Player of the Year. Eric Van's stats are very helpful in considering these questions.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Beltre has been surprise #1, providing what Mike Lowell used to. I say this as someone who was very much against his signing.

Bard has shown full-season success, a great thing for someone who - just three years ago - was pitching at a ~7 ERA in the low minors.

Ortiz is hitting again like it would make sense to pick up his option.

Matsuzaka has been pounding the zone more and getting deeper into games.

Darnell McDonald and Bill Hall have proven they can still be effective MLB players.

Doubront has proven that he can pitch effectively against MLB hitters.

Theo got Saltalamacchia for some scratch tickets.

Theo got Ranaudo inked to a minor league deal.

[edit] added mention of McD and BH

Edited by Buzzkill Pauley, 19 August 2010 - 11:02 AM.

[ean611]

Daniel Nava was a boost to the offense, and an outstanding story. I'll be rooting for that kid as long as he's in baseball.

I'd like to second this. I also love Nava's story, and his .290/.389/.452/.841 so far as a major leaguer doesn't hurt either.

I really think that Nava has a real shot at being something special, as how many switch hitters are naturally left handed?

[bosockboy]

No matter how the year finishes up, McDonald getting to play basically a full year on the big club is a a great baseball story....after a career in the minors. He's proven he can probably stick a few years as a 4th/5th OF at the major league level from here forward, and may never have gotten the chance to show that otherwise.

Nava a tremendous story as well, and I'd love for him to stick here for a few years as a bench player.

On a larger level, Beltre is the story of the season to me. He was a lottery ticket that hit; it's too bad it happened on a one year deal when we have had so much else go wrong. He will very likely be one of the biggest decisions of Theo's career this winter. I'm glad I don't have to be the one to decide if this is an aberration, or if he is Mike Schmidt while in a Red Sox uniform. Very tough call.

[mikeford]

On the matter of the "10th man" award... My initial thought was like Nip... it has to be Hall right?

But after thinking about it... I think it has to be DMac for the simple fact that Hall was on this team on opening day. He was expected to contribute. You can debate how much he was expected to do that (certainly he has far exceeded probably anyone's expectations) but SOMETHING was expected of him.

DMac on the other hand... hell, how many of us even knew who this guy was before he came up and hit a walkoff off the Monster in his first day here? I know I didn't know who the hell the guy was. So with that in mind, I think you gotta go with Darnell McDonald.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I agree regarding McDonald. Hall is certainly providing way more than I expected, but he is a guy making $9M this year, so it's not as if his is really a feel good, totally out of the norm performance. McDonald has been an above average performer (his offensive stats mirror those of Victor Martinez), and provided a spark when the team really needed it. It might not be enough in the long run, of course. Interesting that the Sox depth has played so well; the real underperformers have been guys like Beckett, Ellsbury, Okajima, Cameron, Lowell, Hermida, and Wakefield; guys who were pretty well established and cumultatively make a ton of money. Damn injuries, eh?

[phrenile]

Hall is certainly providing way more than I expected, but he is a guy making $9M this year, so it's not as if his is really a feel good, totally out of the norm performance.

The Sox are picking up only $1.25m of Hall's $8.4m salary, though. He may be reverting to his 2006 form back when he earned that contract, but it would be crazy to ignore the three years' plummet in between when gauging expectations.

[biollante]

Almost nothing. Other than picking up fringe players, like Bill Hall, and forcing them to be every day players.
Absolute inability to keep players healthy or to return them to field healthy. The Sox are in another medical crisis and only have 3rd place locked up absent a pitching miracle.