3 replies to this topic

[philly sox fan]

1991 Draft Review

Part 1: Shape of Draft

       Y0   Y1   Y2   Y3   Y4   Y5   Y6   Y7   Y8   Y9  Y10  Y11  Y12  Y13  Y14
HS     18   19   20   21   22   23   24   25   26   27   28   29   30   31   32
 C      21   22   23   24   25   26   27   28   29   30   31   32   33   34   35

WARP    0    1   23   44  100  143  193  203  193  200  192  182  140  117  105 
%pk     0    1   11   22   49   70   95  100   95   99   95   90   69   58   58  

#Pl     0    1   26   40   86  109  111  105   94   86   74   66   60   56   47
3       0    0    1    6    8   13   23   18   14   21   23   15   11   13   11
6+      0    0    1    0    1    4    5    9    9    8    7    7    6    4    3
Tot     0    0    2    6    9   17   28   27   23   29   30   22   17   17   14

This is a strong HS oriented draft. The quick indicators from this table are the relatively low Y4 totals (49% of peak) and the relatively high Y11 totals (90% of peak). The single peak year is a little early for a HS oriented draft in Y7 (HS age 25), but the draft class was equally productive in the more expected Y9 (HS age 27).

The pattern for “#Pl” is typical – a quick peak over 90 players per year in the Y5-Y7 range followed by a long decline phase. This draft class actually overshot the normal peak of 90 players by quite a bit. That also happened in the strong, HS oriented 1990 draft. Perhaps that’s a characteristic of strong HS drafts. An additional 10-20 marginal HS players may join the same number of marginal C players that are playing in the majors in Y5-Y7.

The number of players in the “3” row is fairly typical for a strong draft – roughly 15-20 players at peak. The number of “6+” players is a little bit low in comparison to some of the other really good drafts that we’ve seen though.

Again, the thing to note is how slowly a HS oriented draft produces a significant number of “6+” players. It takes until Y5 for there to be more than one such player season and the broad peak doesn’t really start until Y7.

Part 2: Types of Players

                         WARP3     # players    total players    % of players
                           100+          1             1                 1
                            90           0             1                 1
                            80           0             1                 1
                            70           2             3                 2
                            60           0             3                 2
                            50           2             5                 3
                            40           8            13                 8
                            30           7            20                13
                            20          13            33                21
                            10          24            57                36   
                             0          80           137                86
                            <0          22           159               100

As I’ve mentioned this section will become more fluid as I move forward thru these draft classes. The players will have had increasingly fewer years to accumulate WARP3 and that effect is just going to be magnified for HS draftees. The bottom of the draft is still going to be pretty well locked in because these players have finished their careers, but there’s going to be at least some upward mobility for players in the middle part of this table. However, it is true that this draft is a little thin at the very top. The overall depth looks about average.

Part 3: Top 40 Players

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1       13      Cle       Manny Ramirez*    OF        HS         100.2
  2       8      207      Min       Brad Radke*      RHP        HS          71.4
  3       1       16      Tor       Shawn Green*      OF        HS          70.8
  4      11      287      Mil       Jeff Cirillo*     3B         C          55.4
  5       8      216      Cub       Steve Trachsel*  RHP         C          51.0
  6       8      215      Sea       Derek Lowe*      RHP        HS          49.9
  7      18      489      CWS       Mike Cameron*     OF        HS          49.9
  8       1       23      Bos       Aaron Sele*      RHP         C          47.8
  9       1       14      Mon       Cliff Floyd*      1B        HS          47.1
 10      10      263       KC       Mike Sweeney*      C        HS          44.2

In terms of school type this is very much a HS draft at the top. The clustering is technically quite good – a group of 1st rd picks, a group of 8th rd picks and a group of 10+ rd picks – but it’s clearly not that well clustered towards the top of the draft.

Ramirez is, of course, a great player. He should be the only one from this class to clear 100 WARP3 and he should be the only one to make the HoF. The next tier of very good players is a little thin, so the overall star power of this draft is a somewhat low. Certainly all of these players had good to very good careers though.

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
 11      13      337      Min       Matt Lawton*      2B        JC          43.4
 12      11      289       KC       Joe Randa*        3B         C          43.3
 13      13      355      Tor       Alex Gonzalez*    SS        HS          42.4
 14       8      206      Atl       Jason Schmidt*   RHP        HS          39.8
 15      11      296      Mon       M Grudzielanek*   SS        JC          39.2
 16      18      478      Mon       Kirk Rueter*     LHP         C          39.2
 17      44     1157      NYM       J Isringhausen*  RHP        JC          34.2
 18       8      209      Mil       Mike Matheny*      C         C          33.9
 19       1        4      Stl       Dmitri Young*     OF        HS          31.4
 20       7      181      Min       LaTroy Hawkins*  RHP        HS          30.2

This group of payers is always the transition from “good” to “useful” players and as we move forward through the drafts that transition can get murkier because players haven’t had as much time to separate themselves. I certainly think of Lawton, Randa, Schmidt, Grudzielanek and Isringhausen as players who have had “good” careers. You can make arguments for a couple others as well, so this draft produced roughly 15-17 “good” players.

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
 21       1       11      Sea       Shawn Estes*     LHP        HS          28.9
 22       4      113      Cle       Paul Byrd*       RHP         C          27.4
 23       2       53      Phl       Kevin Stocker     SS         C          26.5
 24       1        8       SD       Joey Hamilton    RHP         C          25.9
 25       4      112      Cub       Terry Adams*     RHP        HS          25.7
 26       1       20      Cin       Pokey Reese*      SS        HS          24.4
 27       7      202      Pit       Tony Womack*      SS         C          24.1
 28       1       12      Cub       Doug Glanville    OF         C          23.9
 29       1s      36      NYM       Bobby Jones      RHP         C          23.3
 30       1s      43      Bos       Scott Hatteberg*   C         C          21.7

This is a pretty typical assortment of back of the rotation starters and position players with short careers as regulars. Byrd has made a couple of All Star teams, but the most value to come from this group was when the Phillies somehow traded Stocker for Bobby Abreu.

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
 31       1s      32      Det       Justin Thompson* LHP        HS          21.6
 32       3       85      Sea       Jim Mecir*       RHP         C          21.1
 33       3       81       LA       T Hollandsworth*  OF        HS          21.0
 34       7      187      Bal       Jimmy Haynes     RHP        HS          18.7
 35       1       26      Oak       Brent Gates       SS         C          18.5
 36      11      307      CWS       Alan Levine*     RHP         C          18.4
 37      20      529      Cle       Albie Lopez      RHP        CC          17.5
 38      22      579      Sea       Darren Bragg      OF         C          16.9
 39      44     1148      Cle       Damien Jackson*   SS        HS          16.7
 40      25      657      Sea       Matt Mantei*     RHP        HS          15.6

Justin Thompson is a good example of a player who looks barely “useful” by career WARP3 total, but actually had a couple very valuable seasons. And yes, these are often pitchers that subsequently got hurt.

Part 4: Top Players Prior to Free Agency

Rank    Car Rank    Player               Pre-FA      Post-FA     
  1         1        Manny Ramirez*        50.0         50.2        

  2         4        Jeff Cirillo*         44.2         11.2         
  3         2        Brad Radke*           43.4         28.0         
  4         6        Derek Lowe*           42.5          7.4         

  5         7        Mike Cameron*         34.4         15.5         
  6         3        Shawn Green*          33.8         37.0         
  7        10        Mike Sweeney*         31.9         12.3         
  8         8        Aaron Sele*           30.5         17.3         

  9        11        Matt Lawton*          26.6         16.8         
 10        12        Joe Randa*            25.3         18.0         
 11         5        Steve Trachsel*       25.1         25.9
         
 12        13        Alex Gonzalez*        23.9         18.5         
 13        15        M Grudzielanek*       23.5         15.7         
 14        28        Doug Glanville        23.3          0.6         
 15        23        Kevin Stocker         23.2          3.3         
 16        16        Kirk Rueter*          22.7         16.5         
 17        21        Shawn Estes*          22.3          6.6         
 18        26        Pokey Reese*          21.9          2.5         
 19        31        Justin Thompson*      21.6          0.0         
 20        24        Joey Hamilton         21.4          4.5         
 21        27        Tony Womack*          20.5          3.6         
 22        22        Paul Byrd*            19.5          7.9          
 23        29        Bobby Jones           19.5          3.8         
 24        25        Terry Adams*          19.3          6.4          
 25        19        Dmitri Young*         17.7         13.7          
 26        17        J Isringhausen*       16.9         17.3          
 27        32        Jim Mecir*            16.8          4.3          
 28        20        LaTroy Hawkins*       16.7         13.5          
 29        14        Jason Schmidt*        16.6         23.2          
 30        30        Scott Hatteberg*      16.0          5.7          
 31        33        T Hollandsworth*      14.8          6.2
 32        18        Mike Matheny*         13.4         20.5
 33         9        Cliff Floyd*          10.2         36.9

Ramirez is a HoF player so it’s not much of a surprise that he reached 50 WARP3 in his pre-FA years. He barely reached that level though. His transition to MLB was a little slower than other players of his ability.

Cirillo, Radke and Lowe are perhaps a bit surprising, but all were probably underrated early in their careers. They were very productive and valuable young players.

There are only an additional seven players between 25-40 WARP3. In terms of pre-FA production the draft thins out pretty quickly. In Part 3 I mentioned that you could make a case for 15-17 “good” players. The ones that didn’t exceed 25 WARP3 are Alex Gonzalez, Grudzielanek, Isringhausen, Floyd and Schmidt. Gonzalez and Grudzielanek are both solid players who just missed the cutoff. The other three spent a lot of their pre-FA time on the DL and as I mentioned previously about Chipper Jones significant DL time can really diminish a young player’s service time restricted value. Each of these players subsequently became a good player, but it didn’t do the organizations that drafted them much good.

Part 5: Players by Round

Round   WARP3    WARP/pk    WARP/pk (87-94)    Players    20   40   60   80   100
  1      477.4      18.4          17.9             20       5    4    1          1
  1s      92.7       5.2           6.6              7       3     
  2       45.4       1.7           4.1             10       1   
  2s      -0.1       0.0           0.0              1
  3       88.9       3.4           4.6              8       2            
  4       97.4       3.7           2.8             11       2               
  5       24.1       0.9           3.1              7            
  6       20.8       0.8           3.0              4
  7      102.9       4.0           2.5              8       2
  8      246.6       9.5           2.3             10       2    2    1
  9       26.3       1.0           1.1              5
 10       50.8       2.0           1.1              7            1       
 11      169.5       6.5           1.8              7       1    2                 
 12       13.0       0.5           0.8              3
 13       87.1       3.4           2.0              4            2                                    
 14        0.8       0.0           0.7              3                    
 15        7.2       0.3           0.8              4
 17        6.2       0.2           1.5              5
 18       97.7       3.8           1.1              3       1    1
 19        2.4       0.1           0.4              3
 20       26.8       1.0           1.3              2              
 21        4.7       0.2           0.4              2       
 22       18.3       0.7           0.5              2
 23        4.4       0.2           0.5              1
 24       14.4       0.6           1.0              2
 25       15.5       0.6           0.6              2
 26        3.3       0.1           0.2              3
 28        0.8       0.0           0.5              1
 29        6.1       0.2           0.2              1 
 30        0.0       0.0           0.7              2
 31        0.0       0.0           0.0              1
 32       -0.3       0.0           0.3              1
 33       13.4       0.5           0.1              2
 38        8.7       0.3           0.1              1
 39        3.5       0.1           0.0              1
 44       55.9       2.2           0.3              3       1
 53        0.0       0.0           0.0              1
 63        2.0       0.1           0.0              1
        1834.6

The rounds that really drove this draft are the 1st, 8th, and 10th-13th. There’s a sizable hole between the 1st and 8th rounds. It was a very weak draft for second tier high rounds picks (rds 1s-3) and the upper middle rounds (rds 4-7). That was partially offset by the unusual strength in rounds 8-13, but it makes sense to think that some of the missing star level players is due to weak crop in rounds 1s-3.

Part 6: Players by School

      totWARP3     20+WARP      totPlayers      20+Players    totPercent    20+Percent
HS       850.6       698.9           46               16         46 (52)       55 (60)
JC       193.1       116.8           20                3         11             9 
  C       790.9       464.5           93               14         43 (48)       36 (40)

This is a very similar pattern as the 1990 draft. There’s a negligible advantage for HS in totWARP3 and totPercent, but that gap significantly widens when just looking at the key 20+ WARP3 players. The HS advantage should increase since these players are three years younger and should have more years left to accumulate WARP3.

One of the true, but useless factoids that is reported in most draft studies is that more players come from the college ranks than the HS ranks. That is absolutely true and it persists even in HS oriented drafts like this one. The reason that’s true is because the college ranks always produce more players that cycle up to the majors for very brief careers. Despite the fact that the college ranks produced twice as many players (93 vs 46) in total, in the “20+Players” column you can see that the HS group actually has a slight edge in the number of at least “useful” players. And in this draft it’s true that those HS players are much better than their college counterparts on average – 44 vs 33 WARP3. The large advantage of MLB players is made up of players who contributed very little. The 79 college players that did not exceed 20 WARP3 averaged 4.1 WARP3 for their careers. That’s great for the players as they’ve fulfilled their dream of making the majors, but it doesn’t do much for the team. That the college ranks dominated the less than 20 WARP3 players – 326 WARP3 for C vs 151 WARP3 for HS – isn’t really all that important.

All HS players over 20 WARP3

                           
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1       13      Cle       Manny Ramirez*    OF        HS         100.2
  2       8      207      Min       Brad Radke*      RHP        HS          71.4
  3       1       16      Tor       Shawn Green*      OF        HS          70.8
  4       8      215      Sea       Derek Lowe*      RHP        HS          49.9
  5      18      489      CWS       Mike Cameron*     OF        HS          49.9
  6       1       14      Mon       Cliff Floyd*      1B        HS          47.1
  7      10      263       KC       Mike Sweeney*      C        HS          44.2
  8      13      355      Tor       Alex Gonzalez*    SS        HS          42.4
  9       8      206      Atl       Jason Schmidt*   RHP        HS          39.8
 10       1        4      Stl       Dmitri Young*     OF        HS          31.4
 11       7      181      Min       LaTroy Hawkins*  RHP        HS          30.2
 12       1       11      Sea       Shawn Estes*     LHP        HS          28.9
 13       4      112      Cub       Terry Adams*     RHP        HS          25.7
 14       1       20      Cin       Pokey Reese*      SS        HS          24.4
 15       1s      32      Det       Justin Thompson* LHP        HS          21.6
 16       3       81       LA       T Hollandsworth*  OF        HS          21.0

Ramirez is the only elite player in this draft. In terms of good to very good players though you can go down to Schmidt at #9. Gonzalez is borderline at best despite exceeding 40 WARP3. The number of useful HS players is unusual. This is a strong HS draft on the basis of depth more so than stars.

All JC/CC players over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1      13      337      Min       Matt Lawton*      2B        JC          43.4
  2      11      296      Mon       M Grudzielanek*   SS        JC          39.2
  3      44     1157      NYM       J Isringhausen*  RHP        JC          34.2

This is an average, solid group of JC/CC players. If Isringhausen could have made it as an elite Generation K starter that would have given the group a little more ceiling. Grudzielanek is quite similar to the stereotypical mid to late round college infield success right down to the position change away from SS.

All C players over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1      11      287      Mil       Jeff Cirillo*     3B         C          55.4
  2       8      216      Cub       Steve Trachsel*  RHP         C          51.0
  3       1       23      Bos       Aaron Sele*      RHP         C          47.8
  4      11      289       KC       Joe Randa*        3B         C          43.3
  5      18      478      Mon       Kirk Rueter*     LHP         C          39.2
  6       8      209      Mil       Mike Matheny*      C         C          33.9
  7       4      113      Cle       Paul Byrd*       RHP         C          27.4
  8       2       53      Phl       Kevin Stocker     SS         C          26.5
  9       1        8       SD       Joey Hamilton    RHP         C          25.9
 10       7      202      Pit       Tony Womack*      SS         C          24.1
 11       1       12      Cub       Doug Glanville    OF         C          23.9
 12       1s      36      NYM       Bobby Jones      RHP         C          23.3
 13       1s      43      Bos       Scott Hatteberg*   C         C          21.7
 14       3       85      Sea       Jim Mecir*       RHP         C          21.1

Cirillo was actually a very good and underrated player in his pre-FA years, but as whole this group is quite light on high level talent. These players look like stereotypical modest ceiling college successes. Aside from Sele the key players are all mid to late round players.

[philly sox fan]

Part 7: Players by Position

                 P         Pos       C       INF       OF       
totWARP       808.5    1,026.1     127.8    483.4    414.9
20+WARP       537.4      742.8      99.8    345.8    297.2

totPlayers      79         80        12      34        34
20+Players      15         18         3       9         6

There’s good pitching depth in this draft. The catchers are mediocre. The infielders are about average. Thanks to Ramirez the high end outfielders are good, but the depth is average.

All Pitchers over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       8      207      Min       Brad Radke*      RHP        HS          71.4
  2       8      216      Cub       Steve Trachsel*  RHP         C          51.0
  3       8      215      Sea       Derek Lowe*      RHP        HS          49.9
  4       1       23      Bos       Aaron Sele*      RHP         C          47.8
  5       8      206      Atl       Jason Schmidt*   RHP        HS          39.8
  6      18      478      Mon       Kirk Rueter*     LHP         C          39.2
  7      44     1157      NYM       J Isringhausen*  RHP        JC          34.2
  8       7      181      Min       LaTroy Hawkins*  RHP        HS          30.2
  9       1       11      Sea       Shawn Estes*     LHP        HS          28.9
 10       4      113      Cle       Paul Byrd*       RHP         C          27.4
 11       1        8       SD       Joey Hamilton    RHP         C          25.9
 12       4      112      Cub       Terry Adams*     RHP        HS          25.7
 13       1s      36      NYM       Bobby Jones      RHP         C          23.3
 14       1s      32      Det       Justin Thompson* LHP        HS          21.6
 15       3       85      Sea       Jim Mecir*       RHP         C          21.1

The most notable thing about this draft is the fluke, great 8th round. Four of the top five pitchers were picked in the 8th and assuming Schmidt’s arm falls off some time after Sele stops getting NRIs, it should end up that the four best pitchers were drafted in the 8th rd between picks #206-216. There are plenty of first rounds that don’t produce four pitchers that good.

Are there any aces? No. Lowe was for one year. Schmidt was for a couple years, but I think a pitcher needs a longer sustained run than that to be considered an ace.

Are there four good #2/3 quality starters? Yes. Schmidt and Radke are both quality #2/3 starters. A lot of Lowe’s production was a reliever, but he’s settled in as a durable mid-rotation starter. I’d count him. Sele was one. There’s another group of decent starters just below them including Trachsel, Reuter and Byrd. There’s no Mussina or Appier level ace, but there’s very nice depth here. The HS pitchers are better than the C pitchers, but even in that regard there’s a nice blend.

Are there any closers or special relievers? Yes, Isringhausen has been a solid closer. Lowe spent the first part of his career as a special reliever.

Did MLB as an industry do a good job clustering talent? Clustering – yes, but not at the top of the draft.

All Catchers over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1      10      263       KC       Mike Sweeney*      C        HS          44.2
  2       8      209      Mil       Mike Matheny*      C         C          33.9
  3       1s      43      Bos       Scott Hatteberg*   C         C          21.7

Sweeney barely caught in the majors. He’s more accurately a rare late round HS hitter. Matheny has had a surprisingly long career as a catch and throw starter. Hatteberg has been a useful complementary player.

All Infielders over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1      11      287      Mil       Jeff Cirillo*     3B         C          55.4
  2       1       14      Mon       Cliff Floyd*      1B        HS          47.1
  3      13      337      Min       Matt Lawton*      2B        JC          43.4
  4      11      289       KC       Joe Randa*        3B         C          43.3
  5      13      355      Tor       Alex Gonzalez*    SS        HS          42.4
  6      11      296      Mon       M Grudzielanek*   SS        JC          39.2
  7       2       53      Phl       Kevin Stocker     SS         C          26.5
  8       1       20      Cin       Pokey Reese*      SS        HS          24.4
  9       7      202      Pit       Tony Womack*      SS         C          24.1

This group has solid depth, but it’s lacking real high end talent.

Are the HS infielders clustered at the top? Sort of. Floyd and Reese were both 1st rd pick, but Floyd was more of a hitter than an infielder (and after his injury he was an OF) and Reese wasn’t very good. Gonzalez is a rare late round middle of the diamond HS player, but he’s mostly been an accumulator.

Are there a lot of mid-round college sleepers? Yes, three out of the four college infielders to exceed 20 WARP3 were drafted in the 7th or 11th rd. Womack is a little unusual for the type because his speed set him apart as a player. Cirillo and Randa are the more typical solid all around player type.

All Outfielders over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1       13      Cle       Manny Ramirez*    OF        HS         100.2
  2       1       16      Tor       Shawn Green*      OF        HS          70.8
  3      18      489      CWS       Mike Cameron*     OF        HS          49.9
  4       1        4      Stl       Dmitri Young*     OF        HS          31.4
  5       1       12      Cub       Doug Glanville    OF         C          23.9
  6       3       81       LA       T Hollandsworth*  OF        HS          21.0

These are mostly HS picks and mostly clustered at the top of the draft. Ramirez, Green and Cameron are a pretty strong top three.

Part 8: Players by Team

The next table ranks teams by their total WARP3 production. That can sometimes be deceiving so I’ll also break the teams down into smaller groups as well.

Rank   Team     WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
  1      Cle     191.5      Ramirez (100.2), Byrd (27.4)
  2      Min     159.1      Radke (71.4), Lawton (43.4), Hawkins (30.2)
  3      Sea     148.6      Lowe (49.9), Estes (28.9), Mecir (21.1), Bragg (16.9)
  4      Tor     145.5      Green (70.8), Gonzalez (42.4)
  5      Mon     125.7      Floyd (47.1), Grudzielanek (39.2), Rueter (39.2)
  6       KC     107.1      Sweeney (44.2), Randa (43.3)
  7      Cub     102.3      Trachsel (51.0), Adams (25.7), Glanville (23.9)
  8      Stl      95.3      Young (31.4)
  9      Mil      94.3      Cirillo (55.4), Matheny (33.9)
 10      Bos      86.0      Sele (47.8), Hatteberg (21.7)
 11      CWS      81.7      Cameron (49.9)
 12      NYM      71.0      Isringhausen (34.2), Jones (23.3)
 13      Bal      49.1      Haynes (18.7), Ochoa (14.5)
 14      Cal      44.6      Palmeiro (13.3), Fabregas (11.4), Perez (11.3)
 15       SD      44.5      Hamilton (25.9)
 16      Atl      43.9      Schmidt (39.8)
 17      Phl      42.3      Stocker (26.5)
 18      Det      41.4      Thompson (21.6)
 19      Oak      30.1      Gates (18.5)
 20      Cin      29.2      Reese (24.4)
 21      Pit      27.2      Womack (24.1)
 22       LA      25.5      Hollandsworth (21.0)
 23      Tex      24.4      Eyre (11.0), Gil (10.7)
 24      Hou      12.9      J Mouton (9.1)
 25       SF       5.9      Vanlandingham (5.5)
 26      NYY       5.8      L Mouton (5.9)

Did three teams have great drafts? No, I’d say that just the Indians had a great draft. Ramirez is really the only great player who can make a draft a great one by himself. Arguably a couple other teams had two player combinations that could be considered great drafts, but I’d stick with just the Indians.

Rank   Team     WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
  1      Cle     191.5      Ramirez (100.2), Byrd (27.4)

Were there a half dozen very good drafts and another half dozen good, above average drafts? Yes, though with just one team categorized as having a great draft you would expect there to be a sizable middle class.

Rank   Team     WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
  2      Min     159.1      Radke (71.4), Lawton (43.4), Hawkins (30.2)
  9      Mil      94.3      Cirillo (55.4), Matheny (33.9)
  3      Sea     148.6      Lowe (49.9), Estes (28.9), Mecir (21.1), Bragg (16.9)
  4      Tor     145.5      Green (70.8), Gonzalez (42.4)
  6       KC     107.1      Sweeney (44.2), Randa (43.3)
 11      CWS      81.7      Cameron (49.9)
 10      Bos      86.0      Sele (47.8), Hatteberg (21.7)

  7      Cub     102.3      Trachsel (51.0), Adams (25.7), Glanville (23.9)
  5      Mon     125.7      Floyd (47.1), Grudzielanek (39.2), Rueter (39.2)
 12      NYM      71.0      Isringhausen (34.2), Jones (23.3)
 16      Atl      43.9      Schmidt (39.8)
  8      Stl      95.3      Young (31.4)

Radke, Cirillo and Lowe were all very valuable in terms of pre-FA production, but I think they still fall short of being the best player in a great draft. Green has had a very good career, but his early years with the Gaston Blue Jays weren’t that productive.

Cliff Floyd and Jason Schmidt have been very good players, but so little of their production was pre-FA that you can’t give their teams too much credit for having drafted them.

Did half the teams have mediocre to bad drafts? Yes, thirteen teams didn’t get much from the draft.

Rank   Team     WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
 13      Bal      49.1      Haynes (18.7), Ochoa (14.5)
 14      Cal      44.6      Palmeiro (13.3), Fabregas (11.4), Perez (11.3)
 15       SD      44.5      Hamilton (25.9)
 17      Phl      42.3      Stocker (26.5)
 18      Det      41.4      Thompson (21.6)
 19      Oak      30.1      Gates (18.5)
 20      Cin      29.2      Reese (24.4)
 21      Pit      27.2      Womack (24.1)
 22       LA      25.5      Hollandsworth (21.0)
 23      Tex      24.4      Eyre (11.0), Gil (10.7)
 24      Hou      12.9      J Mouton (9.1)
 25       SF       5.9      Vanlandingham (5.5)
 26      NYY       5.8      L Mouton (5.9)

[NHsoxfan4]

Great breakdowns. Looking at the past 5 years of your draft studies, there's a notable absence of high school pitchers drafted early (~1st-2nd round) that find success at the MLB level. Steve Avery and Shawn Estes are the biggest exceptions. A good amount of the big contributors so far of HS pitchers are guys taken later, in the 3-8 range for the most part, possibly guys with still enough projection and talent that they hit the longshot and evade injury throughout the minors, among other reasons. Taking the stud HS pitcher in the early round didn't amount to much success, at least in a long term, these past 5 years though. I'm interested in seeing the more recent trends, because these studies seem to agree with the idea that HS pitchers are the most risky types of players to draft.

Edited by NHsoxfan4, 24 May 2006 - 01:10 PM.

[philly sox fan]

Great breakdowns. Looking at the past 5 years of your draft studies, there's a notable absence of high school pitchers drafted early (~1st-2nd round) that find success at the MLB level. Steve Avery and Shawn Estes are the biggest exceptions. A good amount of the big contributors so far of HS pitchers are guys taken later, in the 3-8 range for the most part, possibly guys with still enough projection and talent that they hit the longshot and evade injury throughout the minors, among other reasons. Taking the stud HS pitcher in the early round didn't amount to much success, at least in a long term, these past 5 years though. I'm interested in seeing the more recent trends, because these studies seem to agree with the idea that HS pitchers are the most risky types of players to draft.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yup, that's the pattern and it holds up through 1994. I'll get into it more when I do the summaries next, but the best rounds for HS pitchers were the 4-8th.

The only other good 1st rd HS pitcher coming up is Chris Carpenter and that's only after major arm problems for several years. Put Avery's pre-FA career with Carpenter's post-FA career and the HS ranks would have produced one really good 1st rd pick.