37 replies to this topic

[ivanvamp]

Actually, I was pointing more broadly -- Mo over the last SIXTEEN seasons. Think of not having to be much concerned about this crap, for the most part, for like a decade and a half.

Using Yahoo as a cite, here are Rivera's and Papelbon's career (regular season) save stats:

Rivera: 550 sv, 64 bs, 89.6% sv, 2.21 era, 1.00 whip
Papelbon: 180 sv, 24 bs, 88.2% sv, 2.04 era, 1.00 whip (including today)

Obviously I would agree that Rivera is by far the greatest of all time. But this stat means that if you give Rivera and Papelbon 71 save opportunities, Rivera is going to convert one more save than Papelbon.

Maybe Papelbon has had more high-wire acts than Rivera, but in the end, in terms of saving baseball games (which is the primary job of the modern-day closer), Papelbon is pretty much every bit as effective as Rivera. I know it doesn't *feel* like that's true, but we have a lot of years (and save chances) worth of data that says it is true. (note: Rivera's last 3 seasons have been quite possibly the greatest 3 year stretch in the history of the closer role...and this has coincided with a bit of a slide by Papelbon, so that adds to the feeling that Rivera is much, much better than Paps)

Doesn't make me feel any better about today's game though.

[Sprowl]

...breaking out of the 8/12 game thread.

Those numbers are hard to ignore, ivan.

We've had a conventional wisdom that Papelbon's velocity and command are both deteriorating. What are the chances that Papelbon can prove us wrong? For most of the last two years, I'd say very small, but the chances just got a little bit better for Papelbon.

It all hinges on his stuff. If the splitter can slump as effectively as it has for the preceding month, then Papelbon can be a real two-pitch pitcher, as opposed to a fastball+waste pitcher (the slider is still strictly for wasting, IMO).

[Gene Conleys Plane Ticket]

Using Yahoo as a cite, here are Rivera's and Papelbon's career (regular season) save stats:

Rivera: 550 sv, 64 bs, 89.6% sv, 2.21 era, 1.00 whip
Papelbon: 180 sv, 24 bs, 88.2% sv, 2.04 era, 1.00 whip (including today)

Obviously I would agree that Rivera is by far the greatest of all time. But this stat means that if you give Rivera and Papelbon 71 save opportunities, Rivera is going to convert one more save than Papelbon.

Maybe Papelbon has had more high-wire acts than Rivera, but in the end, in terms of saving baseball games (which is the primary job of the modern-day closer), Papelbon is pretty much every bit as effective as Rivera. I know it doesn't *feel* like that's true, but we have a lot of years (and save chances) worth of data that says it is true. (note: Rivera's last 3 seasons have been quite possibly the greatest 3 year stretch in the history of the closer role...and this has coincided with a bit of a slide by Papelbon, so that adds to the feeling that Rivera is much, much better than Paps)

Doesn't make me feel any better about today's game though.

If Papelbon is still maintaining an 88-89% save ratio, with a 2.00-ish ERA and a 1.00 whip in 2020, then he can be compared to Rivera. What makes Rivera so amazing is the consistency of his elite performance in the closer's role over a very long period of time.

Also, just throwing this out there, in five seasons (including this one) as a full-time closer, Papelbon has posted a WAR over 3.0 twice. In 14 seasons as a full-time closer, Rivera has come in UNDER 3.0 WAR just 4 times (including this year).

Edited by Gene Conleys Plane Ticket, 12 August 2010 - 06:26 PM.

[smastroyin]

If Papelbon is still maintaining an 88-89% save ration, with a 2.00-ish ERA and a 1.00 whip in 2020, then he can be compared to Rivera. What makes Rivera so amazing is the consistency of his elite performance in the closer's role over a very long period of time.

Also, just throwing this out there, in five seasons (including this one) as a full-time closer, Papelbon has posted a WAR over 3.0 twice. In 14 seasons as a full-time closer, Rivera has come in UNDER 3.0 WAR just 4 times (including this year).

Well that and the fact that as his trend is getting better while Papelbon's is getting worse, despite the age difference. Since 2006, when both were full time closers, Rivera has 171 saves versus 12 blown saves - that's a 93.4% rate. In that time, Mo has also pitched more games (304 to 299) and more innings (325.7 vs. 313.3).

Of course, paling in comparison to Mo is no real insult.

[OttoC]

Papelbon is actually throwing just under his career average for pitches per batter this season.

Year	BFP	Pitches	P/Batter	Comments
2005	148	589	3.980	(all)
2005	77	305	3.961	(as reliever)
2006	257	1023	3.981
2007	224	910	4.063
2008	273	1051	3.850
2009	285	1184	4.154
2010	199	782	3.930	(through 8/11)
Total	1463	5844	3.995

[redsox2020]

Thanks for the reality check with actual numbers. While his future is debatable, it's harder to argue with the history books.

I think the Paps hate is a lot more emotionally based. It seems a lot of fans still haven't forgiven him for that ALDS game against the Angels. He lost his cape with one pitch & it's gonna take a world of dominance, especially in the postseason, if we're ever gonna let him wear it again. But given how flaky he is, the grass may always be greener for some regardless of what he does on the field. /shrugs

[Frisbetarian]

Using Yahoo as a cite, here are Rivera's and Papelbon's career (regular season) save stats:

Rivera: 550 sv, 64 bs, 89.6% sv, 2.21 era, 1.00 whip
Papelbon: 180 sv, 24 bs, 88.2% sv, 2.04 era, 1.00 whip (including today)

Minor quibble, but 4 of Rivera's blown saves came in 1995 and 1996 when he was not the closer and got no saves. If you remove them, he has converted 90.2% of save opportunities.

[Paul M]

The problem is Papelbon's 2007 is eons ago wheras Rivera is as much a shutdown guy today as he was in 1996 or 2004. Pitching was also much harder to do from 1996-2006 when there was no real steroid testing. Still, I like the idea of showing data like this instead of relying solely on the visceral. There are some more precise ways to probably measure things, but Papelbon for a few years was as good as one of the all-time greats. Problem is I almost expect Rivera to be pitching near the top of the rankings in 3 years and Papelbon to be in his decline years.

[Plympton91]

To me, the fact that you can even have this discussion shows how good Papelbon has been, and what a folly it would be to let go of him just because he's been a normal closer for a couple years instead of an all world closer. Relief pitchers are fickle beings owing to small sample sizes compounding natural inconsistency. "Bad" Papelbon is tied for third in the AL in saves -- One of Bill James' great adages was that "bad" teams focus on what a player can't do (anymore) rather than what they can.


Maybe it's the NESN gun, but the other night he was throwing 96 consistently and touching 97, so I don't think lack of velocity is the problem. To me, Papelbon's problem has been fastball command using his slightly modified delivery to take some pressure off his shoulder. As he gains consistency with the new delivery, the command will improve, and the middle of his career is likely to arc back up.

Edited by Plympton91, 12 August 2010 - 08:58 PM.

[Meff Nelton]

Minor quibble, but 4 of Rivera's blown saves came in 1995 and 1996 when he was not the closer and got no saves. If you remove them, he has converted 90.2% of save opportunities.

Another minor note is 1995, Mo's failed year as a starter really skews his rate stats. If you subtract that year, his ERA drops to 2 even, with a 0.970 WHIP, 1065.1 IP. Strictly as a closer from 1997 onward, 1.99 ERA, 0.967 WHIP, 957.2 IP. He's actually been a slightly better closer than his career numbers indicate.

[Unbearable Lightness]

Another minor note is 1995, Mo's failed year as a starter really skews his rate stats. If you subtract that year, his ERA drops to 2 even, with a 0.970 WHIP, 1065.1 IP. Strictly as a closer from 1997 onward, 1.99 ERA, 0.967 WHIP, 957.2 IP. He's actually been a slightly better closer than his career numbers indicate.

Shouldn't you do this with Papelbon too? Otherwise it seems like you're trying too hard to say something...
Only counting 2006 and onward Papelbon's numbers become 1.98 ERA and 0.953 WHIP, slightly better than Mo's.

[Van Everyman]

Numbers notwithstanding, the two pitchers may be in the same league, but not truly the same class -- primarily bc of health. To me, despite long stretches of dominance, Paps has never been the pitcher he was before the injury in 2006. Back then, his splitter was *devastating* -- I think we forget how devastating. I remember one he threw to Overbay for strike two in (ironically) the Rogers Centre that might have been the best single pitch I've ever seen (the game ended on the next pitch). One has to wonder, given that his split has never since been the weapon it was then (becoming, as noted upthread, a waste pitch) whether it was partly responsible for the injury -- or at least was discarded/modified in the wake of it. Combined with the changes he's made to his fastball and delivery and the fact that major league hitters adjust, it basically means you're not looking at the same dude -- or at least a substantially different than you saw then.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Let's look at some other trends since Papelbon became the closer in 2006:

Papelbon's xFIP:
2006: 3.08
2007: 2.90
2008: 2.38
2009: 3.98
2010: 4.29

Papelbon's save%:
2006: 35/41, 85.3%
2007: 37/40, 92.5%
2008: 41/45, 89.1%
2009: 38/41, 92.6%
2010: 29/35, 82.8%
Total: 180/202, 89.1%

Rivera's xFIP:
2006: 3.52
2007: 3.01
2008: 2.32
2009: 2.89
2010: 3.31

Rivera's save%:
2006: 34/37, 92%
2007: 30/34, 88.2%
2008: 39/40, 97.5%
2009: 44/46, 95.6%
2010: 24/26, 92.3%
Total: 171/183, 93.4%

There's no comparison between the two. Papelbon cannot hold a candle to Rivera in terms of effectiveness both overall and as a closer, and it's silly to suggest otherwise.

"Bad" Papelbon is tied for third in the AL in saves -- One of Bill James' great adages was that "bad" teams focus on what a player can't do (anymore) rather than what they can.

Bad Papelbon also leads the AL in blown saves and his xFIP indicates he's pitching worse than ever and has been declining for a couple of years now. Bad Papelbon is also in line to make roughly $12 million next year and his future effectiveness is very much in question.

He's a throughly mediocre pitcher at the current time.

If I'm the GM, I move heaven and earth to get this guy off the team over the winter. His decline is glaringly obvious and his shelf life is limited, and for the amount of money he wants he's simply not a good enough pitcher to warrant such a contract. And he's absolutely killed the team this year.

[yecul]

The question is whether anyone thinks or wants Papelbon to be given a 3-4 year deal at big dollars this offseason or next.

Has anyone argued for that? I haven't seen it. Ultimately we're talking about whether or not Papelbon is on the 2011 squad.

The catch here is that he's going to be your closer or he's going to be unhappy, IMO. his pricetag is also going to be big. Those factors have to be considered.

It's not whether he is a good reliever. While not elite he is still good. But how does he compare to other available talent? Swapping out the Papelbon investment for a better one is something that should be explored.

[Rudy Pemberton]

If I'm the GM, I move heaven and earth to get this guy off the team over the winter. His decline is glaringly obvious and his shelf life is limited, and for the amount of money he wants he's simply not a good enough pitcher to warrant such a contract. And he's absolutely killed the team this year.

This is just completely over the top over-reactionary BS, and really not based in any kind of reality. It's the "I'm pissed, I WANT ACTION" kind of mentality that has largely pervaded Sox fandom in recent years and it's the same kind of attitude that calls for Papi to be released, Lester to be sent to Pawtucket, etc. Papelbon hasn't been a big contributor this year for sure, but he has not "absolutely killed the team this year"? That kind of term should be reserved for guys like Hoffman, Fuentes, Jenks, Cordero, Qualls, Aardsma, Lidge, etc.

Now, I definitely wouldn't give Papelbon a long term deal but what are the ideas to replace him? Would you gut the entire pen, apart from Bard, and bring in new guys, and who? Give the closer job to MDC, perhaps? Sure- there are guys who will be better than Papelbon next year for far less money but good luck identifying them.

Dumping him just to get him gone and as punishment for being a dumb hick who blew 1 playoff game would satisfy some people, but I don't see how it would really make the team better. Bring him back for one more year, continue to give the biggest innings to Bard, and take it from there. I mean, the trends don't look great but yearly reliever samples are small and not all that predictive.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

This is just completely over the top over-reactionary BS, and really not based in any kind of reality. It's the "I'm pissed, I WANT ACTION" kind of mentality that has largely pervaded Sox fandom in recent years and it's the same kind of attitude that calls for Papi to be released, Lester to be sent to Pawtucket, etc. Papelbon hasn't been a big contributor this year for sure, but he has not "absolutely killed the team this year"? That kind of term should be reserved for guys like Hoffman, Fuentes, Jenks, Cordero, Qualls, Aardsma, Lidge, etc.

Now, I definitely wouldn't give Papelbon a long term deal but what are the ideas to replace him? Would you gut the entire pen, apart from Bard, and bring in new guys, and who? Give the closer job to MDC, perhaps? Sure- there are guys who will be better than Papelbon next year for far less money but good luck identifying them.

Dumping him just to get him gone and as punishment for being a dumb hick who blew 1 playoff game would satisfy some people, but I don't see how it would really make the team better. Bring him back for one more year, continue to give the biggest innings to Bard, and take it from there. I mean, the trends don't look great but yearly reliever samples are small and not all that predictive.

Hey look, Rudy wants to maintain the status quo. Quelle surprise.

This is not based on one blown save. It's based on a 4.29 xFIP. 3 year decline in overall effectiveness. Going to cost $12 million next year. He's not a very good pitcher. And he's killed the club because they're in a tight pennant race with half the team on the DL and still hanging in there and he's kicking away winnable games. And I move him because I'm damned sure that going forward his effectiveness will continue to decline and I don't want to be the team stuck with him when he finally craters.

It's interesting that you mention Fuentes, Jenks, etc.
Closers, 2010, based on WAR.
Papelbon, 14th out of 23 closers and exactly the same as Fuentes. Worse than Valverde, Capps, and Rauch, for crissakes. No one considers those guys any good, so Papelbon should be considered in a similar fashion.

Overall he's viewed as a much better pitcher than this figure suggests, so he may bring back good value.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Hey look, Rudy wants to maintain the status quo. Quelle surprise.

And you're going off on a ridiculous rant despite constantly telling others to chill out and not overreact. I'm shocked. You're right, I'm not a big fan of making major decisions based on anger. Sometimes that pays off, sometimes it doesn't.

This is not based on one blown save. It's based on a 4.29 xFIP. 3 year decline in overall effectiveness. Going to cost $12 million next year. He's not a very good pitcher.

No one is arguing that he should be retained long term or that he hasn't declined from when he was one of the best relievers in the game. I'm not entirely convinced that a decline in effectiveness for a reliever signified he's going to continue to decline or that he's finished. These guys, other than Mariano, see variablity in performance esp. since the sample sizes are so small.

And he's killed the club because they're in a tight pennant race with half the team on the DL and still hanging in there and he's kicking away winnable games.

The dude had been lights out for awhile, hadn't he? He blew a game, it happens. Player slump, they have good seasons, and bad seasons. If you want to scapegoat someone and identify them as "killing the club", go for it, but it really could apply to most of the guys on this team, couldn't it? JD Drew was having a miserable stretch there, no? Scutaro hasn't hit a lick for awhile. Josh Beckett has been slightly less than good. Seems like Papelbon is just a popular whipping boy; as if we hold closers up to this standard of perfection. (He was perfect a few years ago, WTF?????!1?)

It's interesting that you mention Fuentes, Jenks, etc.
Closers, 2010, based on WAR.
Papelbon, 14th out of 23 closers and exactly the same as Fuentes. Worse than Valverde, Capps, and Rauch, for crissakes. No one considers those guys any good, so Papelbon should be considered in a similar fashion.

Well, Valverde was having a sick year until recently, wasn't he? Fuentes and Cordero were highly thought of enough to get massive deals (and I remember there were people here who thought the Cordero signing was a boon for the Reds). You do know that Papelbon was a top 15 reliever in baseball in WAR last year, right? The point, though, is that you should really compare Papelbon to his peers. If you want to get him gone because he sucks, offer some solutions to fix the team.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 13 August 2010 - 08:53 AM.

[86spike]

It's not whether he is a good reliever. While not elite he is still good. But how does he compare to other available talent? Swapping out the Papelbon investment for a better one is something that should be explored.

The key factors, IMO, are:

1) what can you get for Papelbon on the trade market? (the number of teams able to pay him what his arb figure will be is limited and many of those already have clsoers); and

2) what can the Sox do with the $10-$12M that he was going to get? - is that money bringing us 2 sub-elite bullpen arms to set up Bard and is Theo willing to gamble on those types on multi-year deals?

As much as I'd love the team to add depth via trading him and find a better way to spend that chunk of change, I'm really not optimistic that the trade return will be there nor that Theo will see two set-up men that are solid enough to give 3 year deals to.

I'd say it's most likely that Paps is still here next year.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Well, Valverde was having a sick year until recently, wasn't he? Fuentes and Cordero were highly thought of enough to get massive deals (and I remember there were people here who thought the Cordero signing was a boon for the Reds). You do know that Papelbon was a top 15 reliever in baseball in WAR last year, right? The point, though, is that you should really compare Papelbon to his peers. If you want to get him gone because he sucks, offer some solutions to fix the team.

That's what I just did; compared him to his closing peers. He's mediocre compared to the rest. For a guy most fans consider to be elite, this year he's way, way behind guys like Soriano and Wagner and Heath Bell, never mind an android like Rivera. Papelbon has a reputation as an elite closer and he's nowhere near that level in reality, which is why I want him traded this offseason: to take advantage of the perception gap between his reputation and his actual effectiveness.

"Proven closers" are always in demand; I'd imagine a team like the Phillies would love to have this guy, although their farm system is stripped due to the Halladay and Lee trades.

[Rudy Pemberton]

That's what I just did; compared him to his closing peers. He's mediocre compared to the rest. For a guy most fans consider to be elite, this year he's way, way behind guys like Soriano and Wagner and Heath Bell, never mind an android like Rivera. Papelbon has a reputation as an elite closer and he's nowhere near that level in reality, which is why I want him traded this offseason: to take advantage of the perception gap between his reputation and his actual effectiveness.

You're looking at just this year, though (and Billy Wagner has seven blown saves, btw) and also comparing him to several guys in the NL, as well as Soriano- a guy who makes a lot of money and will command a large extension. Just last year, Papelbon had a great WAR, no? So, this stuff can bounce around a lot from year to year. There's not a lot of guys with long track records of being better than Papelbon (besides Rivera). You aren't going to get much for him in a trade because teams can just sign a closer in FA.

If you trade Papelbon and make Bard the closer, who takes Bard's innings? That's my issue. The Red Sox bullpen isn't great. Papelbon is one of the team's better relievers. I just think you bring Papelbon back for another year as there really aren't better options. Maybe you have more confidence in Theo's ability to find effective relievers than I do.

[yecul]

So basically Papelbon is declining, Papelbon is no longer elite, Papelbon is going to be super expensive, Papelbon will only be here one more year........ but Boston absolutely has to keep him and can't live without him?

Defending that stance with "who else can they get?" isn't much of an argument.

Let's put it another way, do you think the bullpen needs to be improved? Do you think Boston will look outside the organization to accomplish this? Will the available free agent arms cost more or less than Papelbon in '11?

If you think they have an upper tier arm or two in the organization that can be plugged in and/or they can trade/sign for one while also retaining Papelbon, then that could work. I don't see the former and I think the budget will be tight for the latter.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

You're looking at just this year, though (and Billy Wagner has seven blown saves, btw) and also comparing him to several guys in the NL, as well as Soriano- a guy who makes a lot of money and will command a large extension. Just last year, Papelbon had a great WAR, no? So, this stuff can bounce around a lot from year to year. There's not a lot of guys with long track records of being better than Papelbon (besides Rivera). You aren't going to get much for him in a trade because teams can just sign a closer in FA.

If you trade Papelbon and make Bard the closer, who takes Bard's innings? That's my issue. The Red Sox bullpen isn't great. Papelbon is one of the team's better relievers. I just think you bring Papelbon back for another year as there really aren't better options. Maybe you have more confidence in Theo's ability to find effective relievers than I do.

How many times to I have to say that he's on a declining trend? His xFIP shows it clearly, both last year and this year. Yes, there's quite a bit of variability in relievers but looking at this guy's rate stats (4 year decline in K/9, 3 year increases in BB/9, 3 year rise in HR rate, 4 year rise in WHIP) show me that his effectiveness is waning rapidly.

I am saying that he should be shopped this winter because I suspect next year he will crater badly.

[yecul]

If you trade Papelbon and make Bard the closer, who takes Bard's innings? That's my issue.

And SJH's issue is that you don't put an ounce of effort or time into thinking about the answer to that question. You look at the status quo, what is in front of you, and cannot escape it.

Do you really feel there are no other options? No available replacements? None?

[czar]

Let's look at some other trends since Papelbon became the closer in 2006:

Papelbon's xFIP:

Papelbon's save%:

<snip all the stats>

There's no comparison between the two. Papelbon cannot hold a candle to Rivera in terms of effectiveness both overall and as a closer, and it's silly to suggest otherwise.

Bad Papelbon also leads the AL in blown saves and his xFIP indicates he's pitching worse than ever and has been declining for a couple of years now. Bad Papelbon is also in line to make roughly $12 million next year and his future effectiveness is very much in question.

I'm not going to disagree with you on the notion that Rivera is hands down the better closer. No question. That said, you use two metrics that are pretty terrible when it comes to analyzing relievers.

The calculation of xFIP is based off of coefficients derived from cumulative league totals; inherently skewed towards SP. This creates problem #1, which is to say that relievers (while a pitcher is a pitcher is a pitcher) typically end up in different situations (inherited runners, different pitch intensities, etc.) than SP, so it may be unfair to regress his numbers using mostly SP-derived coeffs. #2, since xFIP normalizes the HR/FB component, it (like FIP which merely includes HR/IP) are severely prone to wild swings with the difference being a +/- a couple HR. Measuring reliever performance retrospectively is a tricky business, projecting forward based on trends is even trickier. That's not to say using advanced metrics like xFIP and FIP aren't useful; it's just that they tell us far less about a RP going forward relative to a SP.

And BS%? C'mon, we know that's a joke statistic. Like saves in general, it's a terrible stat because it's A) dependent on factors outside of Papelbon's control (how many saves he gets, against who does he get the saves, etc.) and B) all saves are far from created equal (blowing a 3-run game in the 9th is orders of magnitude worse in terms of contributing to losses than blowing a 1-run game in the 8th). While Papelbon has had his share of total "meltdowns" this year, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that a player with a larger -WPA would have a smaller BS% than another if his BS were of the "total implosion" variety.

EDIT: I see you have sort of raised the issues with xFIP in a post while I was typing this, and am glad you pointed out the decline in rate stats as well. Again, I'm not disagreeing at all that Papelbon has declined, just saying that using metrics like xFIP for RP without supporting rates paints a gray picture.

Edited by czar, 13 August 2010 - 09:29 AM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

How many times to I have to say that he's on a declining trend? His xFIP shows it clearly, both last year and this year. Yes, there's quite a bit of variability in relievers but looking at this guy's rate stats (4 year decline in K/9, 3 year increases in BB/9, 3 year rise in HR rate, 4 year rise in WHIP) show me that his effectiveness is waning rapidly.

I am saying that he should be shopped this winter because I suspect next year he will crater badly.

You may want to check your statistics. There is not a four year decline in K rate, as 10.1 in '09 is higher than 10.0 in '08. Looking back to '06 since he became a closer:

K/9: 9.9, 13.0, 10.0, 10.1, 8.2
BB/9: 1.7, 2.3, 1.0, 3.2, 3.4
HR/9: 0.4, 0.8, 0.5, 0.7, 1.1
WHIP: 0.78, 0.77, 0.95, 1.15, 1.15

Regardless, your point remains. He is not as good as he was. No one is arguing this. It's kind of irrelevant though; in the same way that people brought up Papi or Manny or Pedro or whoever else's decline. Players need to be compared against other players, not against their historical selves. Acquring '07 Papelbon is unfortunately not an option.

Ultimately, though, I would love to see some more data about why we should expect Papelbon to crater badly next season. For example, JD Drew's SLG from 2004-2007 went from 569, 520, 498, to 423. Then it went up to 519 & 522. David Ortiz saw his SLG go 636, 621, 507, to 462. Back up to 537 this year. Josh Beckett has seen his BB & WHIP rates increase 4 straight years; worried about him next year? Trends are obviously going in the wrong direction, but I don't know that they are conclusively stating that next year he'll be cooked, sell now!

And SJH's issue is that you don't put an ounce of effort or time into thinking about the answer to that question. You look at the status quo, what is in front of you, and cannot escape it.

Do you really feel there are no other options? No available replacements? None?

I think that those who say "get him gone" should provide a strategy as to how doing so makes the Boston Red Sox a better club. I've yet to see that. I just see anger about him not being as good as he was. The idea that "I cannot escape the status quo" is ridiculous. Just because I wasn't calling for Ortiz's release or Lester's demotion or Papelbon's trade or whatever else means I want things to stay as they are?

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 13 August 2010 - 09:27 AM.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I'm not going to disagree with you on the notion that Rivera is hands down the better closer. No question. That said, you use two metrics that are pretty terrible when it comes to analyzing relievers.

The calculation of xFIP is based off of coefficients derived from cumulative league totals; inherently skewed towards SP. This creates problem #1, which is to say that relievers (while a pitcher is a pitcher is a pitcher) typically end up in different situations (inherited runners, different pitch intensities, etc.) than SP, so it may be unfair to regress his numbers using mostly SP-derived coeffs. #2, since xFIP normalizes the HR/FB component, it (like FIP which merely includes HR/IP) are severely prone to wild swings with the difference being a +/- a couple HR. Measuring reliever performance retrospectively is a tricky business, projecting forward based on trends is even trickier. That's not to say using advanced metrics like xFIP and FIP aren't useful; it's just that they tell us far less about a RP going forward relative to a SP.

And BS%? C'mon, we know that's a joke statistic. Like saves in general, it's a terrible stat because it's A) dependent on factors outside of Papelbon's control (how many saves he gets, against who does he get the saves, etc.) and B) all saves are far from created equal (blowing a 3-run game in the 9th is orders of magnitude worse in terms of contributing to losses than blowing a 1-run game in the 8th). While Papelbon has had his share of total "meltdowns" this year, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that a player with a larger -WPA would have a smaller BS% than another if his BS were of the "total implosion" variety.

I agree that xFIP isn't perfect for relief pitchers, but was simply using it as a tool to clearly show that Papelbon's real effectiveness is much worse than his ERA, and using the same tool to show that he's miles behind Rivera (which was the original premise of this thread). Similarly for saves/blown saves.

I would disagree that blown saves are outside Papelbon's control. Yes, there will be some games where he's brought into an impossible situation and will "blow" the save despite pitching well and those would be unfair to count against him (think Rivera in Game 5 of the ACLS in '04), but given the way he's generally used it's a reasonably fair measurement of how well he's done his job this year. He's usually brought in to start innings with a 1-3 run lead. He's not done his job very well.

[jk333]

Give the closer job to MDC, perhaps? Sure- there are guys who will be better than Papelbon next year for far less money but good luck identifying them.

For me this is a key point. Its hard to identify good relievers because a "good" reliever can have bad or really good seasons almost randomly. Based on Papelbon's career stats he will be a good reliever; teamed with Bard they provide a solid back-end of the bullpen.

Its better to have 4 good relievers than two great and two terrible ones but its hard to know that the two relievers will be bad OR the four relievers will be good. Of those 6 relievers, who knows which will be good. Thus, its better to start a year with two great relievers and hope one of the two mystery relievers is "good" rather than "bad".

Can Papelbon be counted as a "great" reliever? Is he just having a down year that's hurting his rate stats? You have to weigh historic stats vs. recent rate stats. What type of return is expected with his salary and reputation as an elite closer? The answer to these questions will determine if Papelbon should be traded or not.

[Toe Nash]

Let's look at some other trends since Papelbon became the closer in 2006:


Bad Papelbon also leads the AL in blown saves and his xFIP indicates he's pitching worse than ever and has been declining for a couple of years now. Bad Papelbon is also in line to make roughly $12 million next year and his future effectiveness is very much in question.

Thank you. Especially when talking about relievers who aren't Rivera, stuff that happened 3 or more years ago doesn't seem to matter much. Were Papelbon just entering his arbitration years he's of course worth having around even if he's not the same as he was. But if you're paying him $10 million or more, on a team that needs to either re-sign or find both a third baseman and a catcher, it's a terrible use of resources.

[mt8thsw9th]

Here's a much more interesting comparison:

Pedro 1997-2001:

http://www.baseball-...pitching_simple

1022 IP, 2.18 ERA, 215 ERA+, 0.93 WHIP, 5.77 SO/BB

Rivera 1996-2010:

http://www.baseball-...pitching_simple

1065 1/3 IP, 2.00 ERA, 227 ERA+, 0.97 WHIP, 4.25 SO/BB


Seriously, can Papelbon have his decline years before comparing his career to the greatest closer you'll ever see pitch in your lifetime? MLB history is littered with the likes of Jeff Montgomery, Eric Gagne, and Gregg Olson who had great 5 year stretches and then began to flame out. Rivera has done this for 15 years. What indication is there that Papelbon isn't going to fall into the former category with his diminished fastball and inconsistent secondary pitches? To put it politely, I don't see him being cerebral enough to continue to dominate without plus stuff across the board. This is the same guy that inexplicably shelved for a long stretch one of the most devastating splitters in the game.

[Bucknahs Bum Ankle]

See I think his splitter is the key. If he can get it back on a consistent basis, the way he had the past few appearances prior to yesterday for some reason, he has a very high likelihood of being dominant again. But there are so many questions. Why did it inexplicably disappear for 3 plus years? Why did it suddenly come back a few weeks ago? Where the hell was it yesterday? If this shit gets sorted out by the end of the season and it appears that splitty is in fact back, I think you take a flier on him for $12M or whatever for one year. If he reverts to fastball, fastball, fastball, fastball, crappy slider, fastball, fastball ..., look to trade his ass.

[joyofsox]

B-Ref Blog: Is Mariano Rivera the greatest pitcher in baseball history?

Interesting discussion -- and as one commenter notes, the info presented merely reinforces Pedro's greatness!

[BucketOBalls]

The thing with Papelbon is: Maybe he's just having a bad year. An example would be K-Rod, who dominated for a while, declined, but struck back(*) this year. I think saying "Paps has been trending downward and will suck in the future" is over simplifying. Many pitchers, especially closers, have bad years and then rebound. I doubt he ever reaches is his 06-07 peak again, but he could still be a good pitcher. A bullpen with a good & elite pitchers is better than one with just an elite pitcher. It's not liker are a bunch of elite closers available(who would also cost a huge amount of money). It's worth exploring the trade market, but I don't think you can get any value that would help the sox. You can argue that Papelbon is declining, but I think just saying "his xFIP is trending downward" is over simplifying. Heck, even Marino had a bad year for him in 2007.


*- Someone was gonna make a joke.

[Rough Carrigan]

. . . Give the closer job to MDC, perhaps? . . .

Oh god. Oh god no.

The whole concept of the 9th inning requiring a special kind of intestinal gritty gung holyness is drastically overdone by newspaper columnists and talk show nitwits but there's not absolutely nothing at all to it. And MDC is the proof of it.

[Rough Carrigan]

The thing with Papelbon is: Maybe he's just having a bad year. An example would be K-Rod, who dominated for a while, declined, but struck back(*) this year. I think saying "Paps has been trending downward and will suck in the future" is over simplifying. Many pitchers, especially closers, have bad years and then rebound. I doubt he ever reaches is his 06-07 peak again, but he could still be a good pitcher. A bullpen with a good & elite pitchers is better than one with just an elite pitcher. It's not liker are a bunch of elite closers available(who would also cost a huge amount of money). It's worth exploring the trade market, but I don't think you can get any value that would help the sox. You can argue that Papelbon is declining, but I think just saying "his xFIP is trending downward" is over simplifying. Heck, even Marino had a bad year for him in 2007.


*- Someone was gonna make a joke.

Pap's peak was '08 when he walked 1 guy per 9. That's not luck. That' great, great command. Unfortunately, he's been above 3 BB per 9 since and that's only good.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Oh god. Oh god no.

The whole concept of the 9th inning requiring a special kind of intestinal gritty gung holyness is drastically overdone by newspaper columnists and talk show nitwits but there's not absolutely nothing at all to it. And MDC is the proof of it.

Guess I needed an emoticon there, it was joke, meant to demonstrate the less than appealing options in the bullpen.

[Pumpsie]

In a related note, the Dodgers' Joe Torre removed Jonathan Broxton from the closer role today after HIS ninth-inning meltdown yesterday, saying he'll have to earn it back. Broxton had five blown saves this year and was the NL All-Star closer. So, it IS possible.

[terrynever]

You don't compare Mo to anyone unless you want to talk postseason. What's interesting is that Papelbon is pretty close to Mo in the PS except Mo started working for a real living in 1996 and Pap in 2006.

I think Pap is the second-best closer in MLB, as of this moment. You want Bard, judge him for 5 years, and then if he is really good, judge him for 15 years. Mo's length is what sets him apart. But let's never forget how many times Pap has succeeded.

[Sprowl]

I didn't want Papelbon's recent save against the Angels to go by unrecorded.

This is what outstanding command of three pitches looks like: high fastballs, only one pitch in the center-center, splitters diving out of the strike zone, sliders hovering on the edge. If Papelbon can put this many pitches together without making a mistake, he can prolong his excellence as closer for some years yet.