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[philly sox fan]

1990 Draft Review

Part 1: Shape of Draft

      Y0   Y1   Y2   Y3   Y4   Y5   Y6   Y7   Y8   Y9  Y10  Y11  Y12  Y13  Y14  Y15 
HS    18   19   20   21   22   23   24   25   26   27   28   29   30   31   32   33
 C     21   22   23   24   25   26   27   28   29   30   31   32   33   34   35   36

WARP   2    8   31   55   67  119  171  171  169  193  184  169  147  125   91   95  
%pk    1    4   16   28   34   62   88   89   87  100   95   87   76   65   47   49   

#Pl    2    8   19   60   59   96  101   84   91   76   67   64   56   44   44   39
3      0    2    1    6    6   13   14   13   17   16   17   17   12    8   13   14
6+     0    0    2    1    2    3    9    9    7   10    9    8    7    7    1    2
Tot    0    2    3    7    8   16   23   22   24   26   26   25   19   15   14   16

This is a strong HS oriented draft. The quick indicators from this table are the relatively low Y4 totals (just 34% of peak) and the relatively high Y11 totals (87% of peak). Also note that while the broad peak is in the normal spot between Y6-Y11 the two most productive seasons are towards the back of that peak in Y9 and Y10. It’s not a coincidence that that is also when a typical HS draftee would be ages 27 and 28.

The pattern for “#Pl” is typical – a quick peak over 90 players per year in the Y5-Y7 range followed by a long decline phase. That as many as 101 players from this draft class all played in the majors in Y6 is unusually high, but not terribly meaningful.

The number of players in the “3” and “6+” rows are fairly typical for a strong draft – roughly 15-20 players in the “3” category and 10 players in the “6+” category at peak. The thing to note is how slowly this draft produced a significant number of “6+” players. Again that fits a HS oriented draft. It’s the rare HS player that will produce a 6+ WARP3 season in his early 20s.

Part 2: Types of Players

                         WARP3     # players    total players    % of players
                           100+          1             1                 1
                            90           0             1                 1
                            80           0             1                 1
                            70           3             4                 2
                            60           2             6                 4
                            50           4            10                 6
                            40           8            18                11
                            30           4            22                13
                            20           7            29                17
                            10          19            48                29   
                             0          94           142                85
                            <0          26           168               100

As I’ve mentioned this section will become more fluid as I move forward thru these draft classes. The players will have had increasingly fewer years to accumulate WARP3 and that effect is just going to be magnified for HS draftees. The bottom of the draft is still going to be pretty well locked in because these players have generally finished their brief careers, but there’s going to be at least some upward mobility for players in the middle part of this table. However, it is true that this draft is a little thin at the very top. The overall depth looks about average.
Part 3: Top 40 Players

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1       20      Bal       Mike Mussina*    RHP         C         109.2
  2       1        1      Atl       Chipper Jones*    SS        HS          72.5
  3       5      129      CWS       Ray Durham*       2B        HS          70.8
  4       5      131      Sea       Bret Boone*       2B         C          70.5
  5      22      577      NYY       Andy Pettitte*   LHP        HS          69.5
  6      24      629      NYY       Jorge Posada*     SS        HS          64.5
  7       4      123      Cal       Garrett Anderson* OF        HS          56.5
  8       6      157      Sea       Mike Hampton*    LHP        HS          56.0    
  9       1        4      CWS       Alex Fernandez   RHP        CC          53.4
 10       1       24      Mon       Rondell White*    OF        HS          50.0

The single best player is a collegian, but overall the best players from this class are from HS. The clustering at the top of the draft is pretty good with the Yankees late round draft and follows the notable exceptions. I think Pettitte was signed for a relatively high bonus after his first year in JC. I don’t believe that’s true of Posada, but his background coming out of Puerto Rico is more ambiguous.

Thus far Mussina is the only 100+ WARP3 player. Jones has the talent to get there, but his durability issues may keep him from doing so. Mussina is going to have an interesting HoF case, but the general feeling seems to be that he’ll fall short. At any rate, he’ll have to maintain this year’s resurgence to strengthen his case. By the numbers Jones may fall short as well though the voters may give him enough extra credit for his prominence on the perpetually division winning Braves and that will get him over the top. The 1989 draft may produce as many as 5 HoF players, but this draft may not produce any.

The rest of the players in this top 10 all have had very good careers.

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
 11       1       17      NYM       Jeromy Burnitz*   OF         C          49.9
 12       2       61      CWS       Bob Wickman*     RHP         C          48.1
 13       1        3      Phl       Mike Lieberthal*   C        HS          47.1
 14       6      175      Cal       Troy Percival*     C         C          46.0
 15       1        7      Cin       Dan Wilson*        C         C          45.4
 16       1       10      NYY       Carl Everett*     OF        HS          41.9
 17       9      246      NYM       Fernando Vina     2B         C          40.8
 18      10      271      Tex       Rusty Greer       OF         C          40.1
 19      21      553      Min       Ed Guardado*     LHP        CC          37.9
 20      20      527      Min       Damian Miller*     C         C          35.6

This is a decent mix of solid players. There are some longtime accumulators (Wickman, Wilson, Miller) with some with short career or perhaps just short peak players (Percival, Everett, Vina, Greer). It’s not all that obvious to me where to draw the “good” vs “useful” player line, but I can see the argument for 18-20 “good” players. The draft is a little light on elite talent, but good depth.

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
 21       1        2      Det       Tony Clark*       OF        HS          35.1
 22       7      185      Cle       David Bell*       2B        HS          32.0
 23       4      103      CWS       James Baldwin*   RHP        HS          26.6
 24      14      362      Phl       Mike Williams    RHP         C          24.8
 25       1       22      Tor       Steve Karsay*    RHP        HS          23.7
 26      15      390      Pit       Rick White*      RHP        JC          22.6
 27      17      445      Cle       Dave Mlicki      RHP         C          21.7
 28      10      256      Atl       T Graffinino*     SS        HS          21.1
 29       7      182      Pit       Kevin Young       3B         C          20.6
 30      36      934      CWS       Jason Bere       RHP        CC          18.9

Tony Clark was sort of good and Mike Williams was an All Star(!), but this is mostly the usual assortment of relievers, back of the rotation starters and useful role players.

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
 31       3       85      Min       Rich Becker       OF        HS          18.1
 32       1s      28      Mon       Gabe White*      LHP        HS          18.1
 33      12      319      Min       Pat Meares        2B         C          17.0
 34       1       12      Min       Todd Ritchie     RHP        HS          16.6
 35       4      120       SF       Mike Myers*      LHP         C          15.5
 36       1       13      Stl       D Osbourne       LHP         C          15.3
 37      17      454      NYM       Brian Daubach*    1B        HS          15.3
 38      23      619      Oak       Tanyon Sturtze*  RHP        CC          15.3
 39       2       64      Mon       Chris Haney      LHP         C          14.9
 40       3       79      Sea       Dave Fleming     LHP         C          14.8

Some of these players had some strong seasons and Mike Myers may pitch forever, but these are basically journeyman types.


Part 4: Top Players Prior to Free Agency

Rank    Car Rank    Player               Pre-FA      Post-FA     
  1         1        Mike Mussina*         51.1         58.1         

  2         3        Ray Durham*           41.2         29.6         
  3         5        Andy Pettitte*        40.5         29.1         
  4         9        Alex Fernandez        40.1         13.3         

  5         6        Jorge Posada*         39.2         25.3         
  6         8        Mike Hampton*         36.5         19.5         
  7        18        Rusty Greer           35.2          4.9         
  8        10        Rondell White*        32.4         17.6         
  9        11        Jeromy Burnitz*       32.0         15.3 
 10         2        Chipper Jones*        31.6         40.9                 
 11        20        Damian Miller*        31.2          4.4         
 12        17        Fernando Vina         30.3         10.5         

 13        15        Dan Wilson*           29.6         15.8         
 14         4        Bret Boone*           29.1         41.4         
 15         7        Garrett Anderson*     29.1         27.4         
 16        21        Tony Clark*           28.0          7.1         
 17        16        Carl Everett*         27.8         14.1         
 18        14        Troy Percival*        27.2         18.8         
 19        13        Mike Lieberthal*      25.0         22.1 
        
 20        23        James Baldwin*        23.9          2.7         
 21        12        Bob Wickman*          23.2         24.9         
 22        22        David Bell*           22.7          9.3         
 23        27        Dave Mlicki           19.7          2.0          
 24        25        Steve Karsay*         18.9          4.8          
 25        19        Ed Guardado*          15.9         22.0          
 26        26        Rick White*           15.7          6.9          
 27        28        Tony Graffinino*      11.4          9.7
 28        29        Kevin Young           10.9          9.7
 29        24        Mike Williams          8.6         16.2

Mussina is in a class by himself in a lot of ways. He’s also the only pitcher in this study that cleared 50 WARP3 pre-FA and 100 WARP3 total.

Durhan, Pettitte and Fernandez were very good players. As pre-FA players, Durham and Fernandez were key contributors to the good White Sox teams of the mid-90s. Pettitte, of course, was a mainstay of the Yankees dynasty.

Jones is the most interesting player from the next group. His pre-FA production is fairly modest considering his overall career. That’s due to the injury he suffered in spring training of 1994. He spent the 1994 season on the MLB disabled list burning up one of his precious pre-FA seasons. His total of 31.5 WARP3 was produced in service time years 2-6. The unfortunate timing of the injury really hurt the Braves ability to maximize the inherent value in Jones. Any significant injury burns up the potential for cheap production and that cannot be recovered. In his year 7 service time season Jones produced 7.5 WARP3. If you assume his injury just shifted his career by one year, he would have produced 39.1 pre-FA WARP3 which better fits his ability.

This is a deep draft with a total of nineteen players that exceeded 25 pre-FA WARP3. The only notable players below 25 WARP3 are relievers Wickman and Guardado.

Part 5: Players by Round

Round   WARP3    WARP/pk    WARP/pk (87-94)    Players    20   40   60   80   100
  1      591.3      22.7          17.9             22       2    6    1          1
  1s      41.3       3.0           6.6              8            
  2       85.7       3.3           4.1             13            1       
  3       35.7       1.4           4.6             10            
  4      101.7       3.9           2.8              7       1    1               
  5      147.9       5.7           3.1              9                 2            
  6      104.5       4.0           3.0              7            2
  7       66.9       2.6           2.5             10       2
  8       13.5       0.5           2.3              7
  9       49.9       1.9           1.1              5            1
 10       78.3       3.0           1.1              4            1       
 11        4.9       0.2           1.8              1                 
 12       21.9       0.8           0.8              8
 13       14.6       0.6           2.0              5                                    
 14       27.0       1.0           0.7              3       1             
 15       22.6       0.9           0.8              1       1
 16       21.7       0.8           0.3              6
 17       49.0       1.9           1.5              5
 18        0.2       0.0           1.1              2
 20       45.9       1.8           1.3              4       1              
 21       38.1       1.5           0.4              2       1
 22       69.0       2.7           0.5              3                 1
 23       18.1       0.7           0.5              2
 24       71.3       2.7           1.0              5                 1
 25       18.1       0.7           0.6              2
 26        1.4       0.1           0.2              1
 28       18.3       0.7           0.5              2
 29        6.0       0.2           0.2              1 
 30        0.9       0.0           0.7              1
 31        0.4       0.0           0.0              1
 33        0.2       0.0           0.1              1
 35        1.4       0.1           0.1              1
 36       18.9       0.7           0.3              1
 37        1.4       0.1           0.1              2
 41        0.0       0.0           0.0              1
 45        2.5       0.1           0.3              2
 51       -0.2       0.0           0.0              1
 54        5.1       0.2           0.1              1
 83       -0.7       0.0           0.0              1
        1794.7

The clustering is pretty good for this draft. The two best players were drafted in the first round. The next four players are scattered, but both Pettitte and Posada have complicated draft and follow backgrounds. And is it worth mentioning that most of Boone’s standout production came in an odd post-30 power spike in the so-called Steroid Era? Despite having mentioned it I honestly don’t know, but steroid use (if it does enhance performance) can skew these types of draft analyses in the same way that signability does. Teams can’t scout and project future steroid users.

Part 6: Players by School

      totWARP3     20+WARP      totPlayers      20+Players    totPercent    20+Percent
HS       829.7       667.4           59               14         46 (51)       50 (55)
JC       174.9       113.9           23                3         10             9
  C       790.1       552.7           86               12         44 (49)       41 (45)

There’s a negligible advantage for HS in totWARP3 and totPercent, but that gap significantly widens when just looking at the key 20+ WARP3 players. The HS advantage should only increase since these players are three years younger and should have more years left to accumulate WARP3.

All HS players over 20 WARP3

                  
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1        1      Atl       Chipper Jones*    SS        HS          72.5
  2       5      129      CWS       Ray Durham*       2B        HS          70.8
  3      22      577      NYY       Andy Pettitte*   LHP        HS          69.5
  4      24      629      NYY       Jorge Posada*     SS        HS          64.5
  5       4      123      Cal       Garrett Anderson* OF        HS          56.5
  6       6      157      Sea       Mike Hampton*    LHP        HS          56.0    
  7       1       24      Mon       Rondell White*    OF        HS          50.0
  8       1        3      Phl       Mike Lieberthal*   C        HS          47.1
  9       1       10      NYY       Carl Everett*     OF        HS          41.9
 10       1        2      Det       Tony Clark*       OF        HS          35.1
 11       7      185      Cle       David Bell*       2B        HS          32.0
 12       4      103      CWS       James Baldwin*   RHP        HS          26.6
 13       1       22      Tor       Steve Karsay*    RHP        HS          23.7
 14      10      256      Atl       T Graffinino*     SS        HS          21.1

Jones has been a star level player. The next five players have all been considered amongst the best players in the league at their positions for several years. White, Lieberthal, Everett and even Clark have had their moments. That’s a pretty strong group of ten players. The clustering is generally pretty good – 5 1st rd picks, 3 mid rd picks and the two Yankee draft and follow players.

I’ve seen Pettitte categorized as a JC/CC pitcher because, well, because he did go to a JC. However, Pettitte was only available in the draft as a HS player. In order to acquire Pettitte he had to be drafted as a HS player. For the purposes of a draft study I think that makes him a HS player. I can see the other interpretation, and obviously it’s worth mentioning both views, but Pettitte was never draft eligible as a JC player so it’s not quite right to me to categorize him as a JC player in terms of the draft.

All JC/CC players over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1        4      CWS       Alex Fernandez   RHP        CC          53.4
  2      21      553      Min       Ed Guardado*     LHP        CC          37.9
  3      15      390      Pit       Rick White*      RHP        JC          22.6

Fernandez presents a similar set of problems as Pettitte. Fernandez was drafted out of HS in the first round of the 1988 draft. He did not come to terms with the Brewers both immediately after the draft and enrolled into UMiami. After a single season there he transferred to a CC in order to make himself draft eligible. He was re-selected in the first round and had a very good, albeit injury shortened career. He needs to be categorized as a JC/CC player from a draft perspective, but he could have entered pro ball as a 1st rd pick from each of the three school types. His presence in the JC/CC pool says less about that school type and more about his negotiation type. He’s not inherently a JC/CC player (whatever that means) in the way that Guardado and White are. In the last review we saw with John Olerud how signability issues can skew the data in terms of where a player is selected (in that case – the player was actually picked in the 3rd rd with top of the first round talent). Fernandez is an example of how signability issues can skew the data in terms of what school type the player comes from.

All C players over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1       20      Bal       Mike Mussina*    RHP         C         109.2
  2       5      131      Sea       Bret Boone*       2B         C          70.5
  3       1       17      NYM       Jeromy Burnitz*   OF         C          49.9
  4       2       61      CWS       Bob Wickman*     RHP         C          48.1
  5       6      175      Cal       Troy Percival*     C         C          46.0
  6       1        7      Cin       Dan Wilson*        C         C          45.4
  7       9      246      NYM       Fernando Vina     2B         C          40.8
  8      10      271      Tex       Rusty Greer       OF         C          40.1
  9      20      527      Min       Damian Miller*     C         C          35.6
 10      14      362      Phl       Mike Williams    RHP         C          24.8
 11      17      445      Cle       Dave Mlicki      RHP         C          21.7
 12       7      182      Pit       Kevin Young       3B         C          20.6

Mussina has had an excellent career. He’s clearly the best player from this draft class. Boone’s late career power spike changed a solid career into a very good one. The next six or seven players had good careers of varying shapes. In terms of the number of “good” players the college group is roughly the same size as the HS group, but with the notable exception of Mussina the HS group is better.

Also note how many of these “good” players have already come to the ends of their careers. Greer and Vina have been finished for some time. Boone, Percival and Wilson are inactive for one reason or another this year. Outside of Mussina’s resurgence (for however long that lasts) these players are not going to add very much to their career totals. Their HS counterparts are all clearly post-prime and into their decline phases, but they’ll still be padding their career totals for a few more years.

[philly sox fan]

Part 7: Players by Position

                 P         Pos       C       INF       OF       
totWARP       830.5      964.2     143.6    468.4    352.2
20+WARP       539.6      794.4     128.1    392.8    273.5

totPlayers      89         79        15      33        31
20+Players      12         17         3       8         6

The general distribution is pretty typical. This is a strong draft for pitchers and catchers. The infielders and outfielders are solid to above average.

All Pitchers over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1       20      Bal       Mike Mussina*    RHP         C         109.2
  2      22      577      NYY       Andy Pettitte*   LHP        HS          69.5
  3       6      157      Sea       Mike Hampton*    LHP        HS          56.0    
  4       1        4      CWS       Alex Fernandez   RHP        CC          53.4
  5       2       61      CWS       Bob Wickman*     RHP         C          48.1
  6       6      175      Cal       Troy Percival*     C         C          46.0
  7      21      553      Min       Ed Guardado*     LHP        CC          37.9
  8       4      103      CWS       James Baldwin*   RHP        HS          26.6
  9      14      362      Phl       Mike Williams    RHP         C          24.8
 10       1       22      Tor       Steve Karsay*    RHP        HS          23.7
 11      15      390      Pit       Rick White*      RHP        JC          22.6
 12      17      445      Cle       Dave Mlicki      RHP         C          21.7

Are there any aces? Yes. Mussina is the best pitcher drafted between 1987-1994. He’s never won 20 games or a Cy Young and that likely(?) will keep him out of the HoF, but he’s an ace.

Are there four good #2/3 quality starters? Yes. Most drafts have four without an ace, so it makes sense to consider Mussina here as well. I guess the question is more accurately – at least four good #2/3 starters? Pettitte, Hampton and Fernandez were all very good pitchers. Some of the pitchers I’ve previously classified in this group probably stretch the bottom of the #2/3 designation, but these three are right at the very top and occasionally were considered #1b starters. This is the best quartet of starters from any of the 1987-1994 drafts.

Are there any closers or special relievers? Yes, Percival although like Hoffman in 1989 he wasn’t drafted as a pitcher much less as a reliever. Wickman and Guardado have been closers off and on, but generally second tier ones.

Did MLB as an industry do a good job clustering talent? It largely depends on how you categorize Pettitte. He was drafted quite low, but because he went thru the DFE process he did end up proving himself as a quality amateur before he entered pro ball. Mussina and Fernandez were both 1st rd picks. Hampton slipped thru the cracks a bit as a small lefty from heavily scouted Florida.

All Catchers over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1        3      Phl       Mike Lieberthal*   C        HS          47.1
  2       1        7      Cin       Dan Wilson*        C         C          45.4
  3      20      527      Min       Damian Miller*     C         C          35.6

All three have been regulars and Lieberthal made a couple of All Star teams. That’s a pretty good class of catchers and that’s not counting Posada who was drafted as a SS and is listed with the infielders. If you count Posada this was an excellent draft for catchers and you have to give the Yankees development people a lot of credit for “creating” a terrific offensive catcher from what must have been a lousy middle infielder.

All Infielders over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1        1      Atl       Chipper Jones*    SS        HS          72.5
  2       5      129      CWS       Ray Durham*       2B        HS          70.8
  3       5      131      Sea       Bret Boone*       2B         C          70.5
  4      24      629      NYY       Jorge Posada*     SS        HS          64.5
  5       9      246      NYM       Fernando Vina     2B         C          40.8
  6       7      185      Cle       David Bell*       2B        HS          32.0
  7      10      256      Atl       T Graffinino*     SS        HS          21.1
  8       7      182      Pit       Kevin Young       3B         C          20.6

Jones has been an elite player, but the overall depth thins out quite a bit if you remove Posada.

Are the HS infielders clustered at the top? No. Jones obviously is, but Durham has had a very good career as an athletic mid-rd HS pick at a middle of the diamond position. As I previously mentioned in the Edmonds comment, it’s extremely rare for the HS ranks to produce a middle of the diamond player this good from the middle rounds.

Are there a lot of mid-round college sleepers? Not a lot, but every successful college infielder was picked between the 5th and 9th rds. Boone was a little better than the stereotypical successful mid-round college infielder, but he generally fits the type.

All Outfielders over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       4      123      Cal       Garrett Anderson* OF        HS          56.5
  2       1       24      Mon       Rondell White*    OF        HS          50.0
  3       1       17      NYM       Jeromy Burnitz*   OF         C          49.9
  4       1       10      NYY       Carl Everett*     OF        HS          41.9
  5      10      271      Tex       Rusty Greer       OF         C          40.1
  6       1        2      Det       Tony Clark*       OF        HS          35.1

The group is missing a superstar, but there’s solid talent here. The players are clustered pretty well at the top of the draft. Greer actually fits the mid-round college infielder type very well. I bet he wanted to play SS in college.

Part 8: Players by Team

The next table ranks teams by their total WARP3 production. That can sometimes be deceiving so I’ll also break the teams down into smaller groups as well.

Rank   Team     WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
  1      CWS     217.9      Durham (70.8), Fernandez (53.4), Wickman (48.1), Baldwin (26.6)
  2      NYY     210.5      Pettitte (69.6), Posada (64.5), Everett (41.9)
  3      Sea     148.1      Boone (70.5), Hampton (56.0)
  4      Min     130.6      Guardado (37.9), Miller (35.6)
  5      NYM     127.3      Burnitz (49.9), Vina (40.8), Daubach (15.3)
  6      Bal     125.4      Mussina (109.2)
  7      Cal     108.2      Anderson (56.5), Percival (46.0)
  8      Mon     102.7      White (50.0)
  9      Atl      94.9      Jones (72.5), Graffanino (21.1)
 10      Phl      79.0      Liebrthal (47.1), Williams (24.8)
 11      Pit      68.3      White (22.6), Young (20.6)
 12      Tex      57.3      Greer (40.1)
 13      Cle      53.3      Bell (32.0), Mlicki (21.7)
 14      Cin      48.9      Wilson (45.4)
 15      Oak      45.0      Sturtze (15.3), Van Poppel (14.5)
 16      Det      35.3      Clark (35.1)
 17      Tor      32.4      Karsay (23.7)
 18       SD      31.1      Sanders (12.7)
 19       SF      26.0      Myers (15.5)
 20      Stl      19.6      Osbourne (15.3)
 21      Bos      13.0      Rodriguez (11.7)
 22       LA      8.7       Williams (5.1)
 23       KC      6.9       Myers (2.7)
 24      Hou      4.9       Williams (4.3)
 25      Cub      0.1       Hawblitzel (0.1)
 26      Mil     -0.7       McGraw (0.1)

Did three teams have great drafts? Actually five teams had great drafts. For four of those teams they were franchise changing drafts. Sadly that includes one that changed towards pure evil.

Rank   Team     WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
  1      CWS     217.9      Durham (70.8), Fernandez (53.4), Wickman (48.1), Baldwin (26.6)
  2      NYY     210.5      Pettitte (69.6), Posada (64.5), Everett (41.9)
  6      Bal     125.4      Mussina (109.2)
  9      Atl      94.9      Jones (72.5), Graffanino (21.1)
  3      Sea     148.1      Boone (70.5), Hampton (56.0)

The Mariners are the one team that I wouldn’t characterize as having had a franchise changing draft despite picking two very good players. Maybe that hesitancy means it’s a draft better characterized as very good instead of great? It wasn’t franchise changing because Boone was just good prior to free agency (although they ended up with his great post-FA years at a good price anyway) and Hampton was thrown away for Anthony Felder.

The first hint of the Yankees gathering storm of evil were actually the international signings of Bernie Williams and Mariano Rivera, but it really picked up steam thru the draft in the early 1990s. Although picked in June of 1990, Pettite and Posada did not sign until May of 1991. Just over a year later the Yankees picked Jeter in 1992.

The White Sox did an excellent job at the top of the draft. These four players were picked in the first 5 rounds. They also did an excellent job of tapping different and unusual sources of talent. Fernandez was a rare 1st rd JC/CC player, Durham was a rare 5th rd toolsy HS success and Wickman was a solid contributor from the college ranks. It’s a perfectly blended draft and one that played a part in their good teams in the mid-90s.

Mussina is a great player and for awhile was the non-Ripken face of the franchise (if there could be such a thing) and a key foundation of the Davey Johnons/Pat Gillick payoff teams of 1996 and 1997.

Jones didn’t change the Braves franchise obviously – they were good before him and may very well still be good long after he’s gone – but he has been an elite player for a large chunk of their dynasty.

Were there a half dozen very good drafts and another half dozen good, above average drafts? No. This is similar to 1989 where the top 5 drafts are so good and deep that there weren’t many quality players that filtered down. Only another seven teams had above average drafts.

Rank   Team     WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
  7      Cal     108.2      Anderson (56.5), Percival (46.0)
  5      NYM     127.3      Burnitz (49.9), Vina (40.8), Daubach (15.3)
  8      Mon     102.7      White (50.0)
 10      Phl      79.0      Lieberthal (47.1), Williams (24.8)
 12      Tex      57.3      Greer (40.1)

 14      Cin      48.9      Wilson (45.4)
  4      Min     130.6      Guardado (37.9), Miller (35.6)
 16      Det      35.3      Clark (35.1)

The popular perception of Anderson as a perennially underrated player and Percival as a top closer might have some people think of this as a great draft for the Angels, but those perceptions are wrong. Neither player packed enough production into the pre-FA years for this to be a great draft.

The other teams fall into the standard one good player is enough for a good draft category.

Did half the teams have mediocre to bad drafts? Again, the deep drafts at the top have an effect here as well. Exactly half the teams (13 in a 26 team league) generated very little value from this draft.

Rank   Team     WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
 11      Pit      68.3      White (22.6), Young (20.6)
 13      Cle      53.3      Bell (32.0), Mlicki (21.7)
 15      Oak      45.0      Sturtze (15.3), Van Poppel (14.5)
 17      Tor      32.4      Karsay (23.7)
 18       SD      31.1      Sanders (12.7)
 19       SF      26.0      Myers (15.5)
 20      Stl      19.6      Osbourne (15.3)
 21      Bos      13.0      Rodriguez (11.7)
 22       LA      8.7       Williams (5.1)
 23       KC      6.9       Myers (2.7)
 24      Hou      4.9       Williams (4.3)
 25      Cub      0.1       Hawblitzel (0.1)
 26      Mil     -0.7       McGraw (0.1)

Milwaukee is the only team to have a negative team draft score in my study.

I don’t remember if I’ve pointed this out before or not, but it’s worth repeating. These kinds of draft studies assume that every player’s maximum value is best represented by his career production. As anybody who has looked at an old list of top prospects knows, that is not always the case. Plenty of players have their peak value while in the minors as trade chits. Sometimes teams cash in that value, though often they do not, but either way that very real value is lost in studies like this. The Blue Jays drafted players that produced 32.4 WARP3 in their careers. It’s easy to look at that number and call it a bad draft. However, Steve Karsay was traded for Rickey Henderson who contributed to the 1993 championship. That obviously has value above and beyond the team cumulative WARP3 total.

To lesser extent the Sox ability to use Frankie Rodriguez to acquire Rick Aguilera for their 1995 playoff team is another example of that. Some of these other teams likely had valuable prospects that they may have been able to use to acquire valuable MLB talent as well.

Van Poppel listed with the A’s is a reminder that this was their much ballyhooed Four Aces draft. Yes, that is Tanyon Sturtze who topped them all. Should have called it the Five Aces draft after all.