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[philly sox fan]

1988 Draft Review

I hopefully explained the general format and patterns well enough in the 1987 Review so that I can do away with most of the explanatory verbiage and just go through the same eight part format.

Part 1: Shape of Draft

   Y0   Y1   Y2   Y3   Y4   Y5   Y6   Y7   Y8   Y9  Y10  Y11  Y12  Y13  Y14  Y15  Y16  Y17 
HS 18   19   20   21   22   23   24   25   26   27   28   29   30   31   32   33   34   35
 C  21   22   23   24   25   26   27   28   29   30   31   32   33   34   35   36   37   38

WARP 1   13   31   88  145  169  171  211  191  185  179  136  108  102   92   79   52   46   
%pk  0    6   15   42   70   80   81  100   91   88   85   65   51   48   44   37   25   22   

#Pl  1   8    25   60   79   93   89   94   76   69   63   59   52   45   29   26   22   17
3    0   1     3    6   10   12   20   15   17   18   20   12   11    8    9    8    6    4
6+   0   0     1    6    7    8    6   11   10    9    8    7    4    5    5    4    1    2
Tot  0   1     4   12   17   20   26   26   27   27   28   19   15   13   14   12    7    6

The season to season WARP3 production pattern is typical of a college oriented draft with a relatively high Y4 total and a relatively low Y11 total. The Y7 total is sharply higher than any other year so the peak appears a little pointer than most, but there’s a good broad peak between Y5 and Y10. That Y5 is part of that broad peak is a little unusual, but it fits with the college orientation.

The pattern for “#Pl” is typical – a quick peak over 90 players per year in the Y5-Y7 range followed by a long decline phase.

The “6+” total jumps to six in Y3 which is quite quick, but again not too unusual for a college draft. The number of 6+ WARP3 seasons peaks at roughly 10 in the early part of the broad peak plateau. The total number of useful players above 3 WARP3 peaks in the high 20s in that same range. This is a typical pattern for a good draft.


Part 2: Types of Players

                         WARP3     # players    total players    % of players
                           100+          0             0                 0
                            90           5             5                 3
                            80           0             5                 3
                            70           2             7                 5
                            60           1             8                 6
                            50           5            13                 9
                            40           6            19                13
                            30           3            22                15
                            20          14            36                25
                            10          14            50                35   
                             0          74           124                87
                            <0          19           143               100

It’s generally true that this table is pretty well settled for the late 1980s, college oriented drafts. This draft happens to have a few players right on the cusp of 100 WARP3. Those players represent a strong high end to the draft. The depth is good as well with 13% of players over 40 WARP3 and a relatively high 25% exceeding the 20 WARP3 threshold.


Part 3: Top 40 Players

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1      10       CWS       Robin Ventura     3B         C          99.1
  2      62    1390        LA       Mike Piazza*    1B-C        CC          96.7
  3       7     169       Cal       Jim Edmonds*      OF        HS          95.8
  4      17     428       Hou       Kenny Lofton*     OF         C          94.5
  5       4      90       Hou       Luis Gonzalez*    1B         C          93.8
  6       1      14       Sea       Tino Martinez*    1B         C          76.6
  7       3      76       Mon       Marquis Grissom*  OF         C          70.9
  8       8     200       Pit       Tim Wakefield*    1B         C          61.7
  9       1      15        SF       Royce Clayton*    SS        HS          57.5
 10       5     121       Bos       John Valentin     SS         C          56.1

Seven of the top ten players are from college and the second best HS player is somewhat of an accumulator, so the high end of this draft is very much college players. The clustering isn’t especially good with three out of the top four players drafted in the 7th rd or (much) later. I know Lofton was a college basketball star, but I’m not sure to what extent that affected his signability and therefore draft position. On the basis of his talent alone he might have been a much higher pick.

The top four players were all longtime star level performers. Piazza will be in the HoF. Edmonds probably should be as well though I’m not sure that he will make it. Gonzalez was a post 30s, post FA service time star which is generally a less valuable commodity.

Martinez, Grissom and Wakefield have all been good players for a long time. It’s always fun to speculate how high up these lists Wake’s knuckleball will take him. Wake already tops the pitchers from his draft class and he should be able to get past the recently retired Martinez and Grissom to become the 6th most productive player from this draft class. I don’t think he’ll be able to crack the top 5 unless he plays deep into his 40s. Still, that’s not too bad for no hit college 1B.

Clayton and Valentin are a good example of how players with similar career production can have wildly different value to the team that drafted them. As we’ll see in a bit, Valentin packed nearly all of his production into his pre-FA years and that makes him one of the most valuable players in this draft class.

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
 11       1       1        SD       Andy Benes       RHP         C          55.6
 12       6     140        LA       Erik Karros       1B         C          54.0
 13       1      17       Cle       Charles Nagy     RHP         C          53.0
 14      28     732       Tor       Woody Williams*  RHP         C          49.6
 15       1s     30       Stl       Brian Jordan*     OF         C          46.8
 16      30     767       Cal       Damien Easley*  2B-SS       CC          43.5
 17       5     120       Phl       M Morandini       SS         C          42.7
 18       1       4       Bal       Gregg Olson      RHP         C          41.1
 19       1       8       Cal       Jim Abbott       LHP         C          40.0
 20       1       3       Atl       Steve Avery      LHP        HS          33.7

Easley and Williams fall into the accumulator category, but this is generally a strong group of second tier players. The bottom three pitchers had their careers cut short by injuries, but that didn’t affect their valuable pre-FA production. You can make the argument that this draft class is twenty deep in “good” players which is quite good.

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
 21       2      34       Bal       Arthur Rhodes*    OF        HS          33.3
 22       3      63       Tex       Darren Oliver*   LHP        HS          32.2
 23       6     158       Stl       Rheal Cormier*   LHP        CC          29.1
 24       3      82       Tor       David Weathers*  RHP        CC          27.9
 25      18     463       Oak       Darren Lewis      OF         C          27.7
 26       1s     28       Bal       Rickey Gutierrez  SS        HS          26.3
 27       1      25       Tor       Ed Sprague        3B         C          23.7
 28       8     190       Atl       Mark Wohlers     RHP        HS          23.2
 29       9     236       Stl       Mark Clark       RHP        CC          22.2
 30       1      26       Det       Rico Brogna       1B        HS          22.0

This level tends to be dominated by back of the rotation starters and relievers and that’s the case here. No, I hadn’t realized Rhodes was drafted as an OF either. I’m not sure when in his career he actually made the conversion to pitcher. I’m definitely comfortable categorizing these players as more “useful” than “good”.

Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
 31       5     112       Atl       Turk Wendell     RHP         C          21.8
 32       7     163       Cle       Greg McMichael   RHP         C          21.7
 33       6     143       Cal       Gary DiSarcina    SS         C          21.3
 34      30     765       Tex       Jeff Frye         2B         C          20.9
 35       8     199       Bos       Tim Naehring      SS         C          20.8
 36       3      64       Hou       Scott Servais      C         C          20.3
 37      25     641       Bos       John Flaherty*     C         C          19.6
 38      11     283        KC       Mike Magnante    LHP         C          17.3
 39       7     180       Mon       Bret Barberie     SS         C          16.0
 40      30     781       NYY       Deion Sanders     OF         C          15.6

This is a very solid group of useful players – a lot of modest ceiling C draft picks that chipped in several years of solid production. And Deion Sanders who dumped a bucket of water on Tim McCarver (yay!) and was chewed out by Carlton Fisk (ooh!).

Part 4: Top Players Prior to Free Agency

Rank    Car Rank    Player               Pre-FA      Post-FA     
  1         2        Mike Piazza           59.2         37.5         
  2        10        John Valentin         50.7          5.4         
  3         1        Robin Ventura         50.1         49.0         

  4         4        Kenny Lofton          49.6         44.9         

  5         7        Marquis Grissom       38.2         32.7         
  6        13        Charles Nagy          37.2         15.8         
  7         3        Jim Edmonds           37.1         58.7         
  8         6        Tino Martinez         36.7         39.9         
  9         5        Luis Gonzalez         32.5         61.3         
 10        19        Jim Abbott            32.0          8.0         
 11        11        Andy Benes            31.6         24.0         
 12         8        Tim Wakefield         30.4         31.3         

 13        12        Erik Karros           29.6         24.4         
 14        17        Mickey Morandini      28.8         13.9         
 15        20        Steve Avery           28.5          5.2         
 16         9        Royce Clayton         27.4         30.1         
 17        18        Gregg Olson           27.3         13.8         

 18        15        Brian Jordan          24.2         22.6         
 19        22        Darren Oliver         22.3          9.9         
 20        14        Woody Williams        22.3         27.3         
 21        30        Rico Brogna           22.0          0.0         
 22        16        Damien Easley         21.5         22.0         
 23        32        Greg McMichael        20.9          0.8         
 24        28        Mark Wohlers          19.9          3.3          
 25        27        Ed Sprague            19.3          4.4          
 26        29        Mark Clark            19.1          3.1          
 27        34        Jeff Frye             17.9          3.0          
 28        25        Darren Lewis          17.7         10.0          
 29        31        Turk Wendell          17.5          4.3         
 30        35        Tim Naehring          17.5          3.3          
 31        36        Scott Servais         16.3          4.0          
 32        33        Gary DiSarcina        15.9          5.4         
 33        23        Rheal Cormier         13.8         15.3
 34        26        Rickey Gutierrez      12.3         14.0
 35        21        Arthur Rhodes         12.0         21.3
 36        24        David Weathers         4.2         23.7

The WARP system may overrate catchers, but Piazza comes in as the 3rd most productive player in this eight year draft period and that sure seems about right. See what happens when you do favors for Italian businessmen from SE PA?

Valentin was one of my favorite players and during his career I bitched plenty about how underrated he was, but even I was shocked to see him grade out so highly in terms of pre-FA production. When I do the summary of all players that reached 50 WARP3 prior to free agency, you’ll see that he’s in a very select group of players. He really was a fantastic player in the mid-90s.

And then he really fell off a steep, steep cliff. His pre-FA production made him a peer of Ventura and Lofton and his post-FA production made him a peer of Gary DiSarcina. Ouch.

Befitting a deep draft there is sizable group of thirteen “good” players who produced between 27-38 WARP3 in their pre-FA years. These were all good and valuable players in their pre-FA years. Note that Wakefield’s pre-FA service was interrupted by a hideous year in AAA. Not every “good” player has a smooth and easy transition to MLB. Jordan just misses my subjective 25 WARP3 cutoff. If I add him, then the draft produced eighteen “good” pre-FA players and the only notable players missing are Williams and Easley and a few relievers who weren’t very valuable as pre-FA players anyway. Again, even good deep drafts run out of steam by the 20th best player.

Nagy, Abbott and Avery join Valentin in the group of players whose career total underrated their pre-FA value. Arm injury played a key role in the short careers of Abbott and Avery.

Edmonds, Gonzalez, Wakefield, Clayton and some of the relievers at the bottom of the list are all players who look better by their career total although Edmonds was certainly a very good pre-FA player as well.

Part 5: Players by Round

Round   WARP3    WARP/pk    WARP/pk (87-94)    Players    20   40   60   80   100
  1      524.8      20.2          17.9             16       3    5    1    1
  1s      73.3      18.3           6.6              4       1    1
  2       87.3       3.4           4.1             12       1
  3      162.0       6.2           4.6             11       2         1
  4       99.6       3.8           2.8              6                      1
  5      151.5       5.8           3.1              6       1    2
  6      130.6       5.0           3.0              9       2    1
  7      135.7       5.2           2.5              7       1              1
  8      109.2       4.2           2.3              5       2         1
  9       49.7       1.9           1.1              8       1
 10       12.8       0.5           1.1              5
 11       25.6       1.0           1.8              5 
 12        5.5       0.2           0.8              4
 13        1.2       0.0           2.0              1
 14       -0.1       0.0           0.7              1 
 15       13.2       0.5           0.8              5 
 16        0.7       0.0           0.3              4
 17       95.7       3.7           1.5              2                      1
 18       40.5       1.6           1.1              3       1
 19        9.6       0.4           0.4              2
 21        4.4       0.2           0.4              1
 22        0.1       0.0           0.5              1
 23        2.2       0.1           0.5              2
 25       20.7       0.8           0.6              3
 26        0.9       0.0           0.2              1
 28       50.0       1.9           0.5              2            1
 29        9.4       0.4           0.2              2
 30       80.0       3.1           0.0              3       1    1
 32        0.8       0.0           0.3              2
 33        0.0       0.0           0.1              1
 35        2.9       0.1           0.1              1
 38        0.0       0.0           0.1              1
 40       -0.1       0.0           0.0              2
 41        1.8       0.1           0.0              1
 42       -0.3       0.0           0.0              1
 58       -0.1       0.0           0.3              2
 62       96.7       3.7           0.5              1                      1
        1997.8

By “WARP/pk” this was a strong draft in the 1st round and the supplemental round, but in general the clustering at the top of the draft isn’t that great. The 60+ and 80+ WARP3 players are scattered throughout the draft. The middle rounds (3 thru 8) are actually the strength of this draft. The two late round sleepers are Piazza, the Norristown paison of Tommy LaSorda, and Lofton who again might have had his basketball career play a role in his low draft position.


Part 6: Players by School

      totWARP3     20+WARP      totPlayers      20+Players    totPercent    20+Percent
HS       387.0       324.0           27                8         19 (22)       20 (23)
JC       263.1       219.4           23                5         13            13
 C       1347.7      1113.7           93               23         67 (78)       67 (77)

Across the table the college ranks have a 3-4-fold advantage over the HS ranks. Thanks mostly to Piazza the JC ranks are pretty good as well.

All HS players over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       7      169      Cal       Jim Edmonds*      OF        HS          95.8
  2       1       15       SF       Royce Clayton*    SS        HS          57.5
  3       1        3      Atl       Steve Avery      LHP        HS          33.7
  4       2       34      Bal       Arthur Rhodes*    OF        HS          33.3
  5       3       63      Tex       Darren Oliver*   LHP        HS          32.2
  6       1s      28      Bal       Rickey Gutierrez  SS        HS          26.3
  7       8      190      Atl       Mark Wohlers     RHP        HS          23.2
  8       1       26      Det       Rico Brogna       1B        HS          22.0

This is a very thin class. Edmonds is a great player, but there’s not much after him. Clayton has had a long decent career. Avery was very good for a couple very early years. The rest are mostly role players. Generally, these players were drafted towards the top of the draft but as the only really good player Edmonds is a pretty huge exception.

All JC/CC players over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1      62     1390       LA       Mike Piazza*    1B-C        CC          96.7
  2      30      767      Cal       Damien Easley*  2B-SS       CC          43.5
  3       6      158      Stl       Rheal Cormier*   LHP        CC          29.1
  4       3       82      Tor       David Weathers*  RHP        CC          27.9
  5       9      236      Stl       Mark Clark       RHP        CC          22.2

Now that the draft stops at 50 rounds we can finally lock in Piazza as the greatest 62nd rd pick in history. Although with more teams now drafting the 1390th pick does still exist. It probably comes around in the 47th round so perhaps there’ll be another pick #1390 comparable to Piazza. Or maybe not. Easley banked a lot of money from a bad Randy Smith contract after a couple solid years and has hung around long enough for a decent career. The three pitchers are fairly typical JC successes.

All C players over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1       10      CWS       Robin Ventura     3B         C          99.1
  2      17      428      Hou       Kenny Lofton*     OF         C          94.5
  3       4       90      Hou       Luis Gonzalez*    1B         C          93.8
  4       1       14      Sea       Tino Martinez*    1B         C          76.6
  5       3       76      Mon       Marquis Grissom*  OF         C          70.9
  6       8      200      Pit       Tim Wakefield*    1B         C          61.7
  7       5      121      Bos       John Valentin     SS         C          56.1
  8       1        1       SD       Andy Benes       RHP         C          55.6
  9       6      140       LA       Erik Karros       1B         C          54.0
 10       1       17      Cle       Charles Nagy     RHP         C          53.0
 11      28      732      Tor       Woody Williams*  RHP         C          49.6
 12       1s      30      Stl       Brian Jordan*     OF         C          46.8
 13       5      120      Phl       M Morandini       SS         C          42.7
 14       1        4      Bal       Gregg Olson      RHP         C          41.1
 15       1        8      Cal       Jim Abbott       LHP         C          40.0
 16      18      463      Oak       Darren Lewis      OF         C          27.7
 17       1       25      Tor       Ed Sprague        3B         C          23.7
 18       5      112      Atl       Turk Wendell     RHP         C          21.8
 19       7      163      Cle       Greg McMichael   RHP         C          21.7
 20       6      143      Cal       Gary DiSarcina    SS         C          21.3
 21      30      765      Tex       Jeff Frye         2B         C          20.9
 22       8      199      Bos       Tim Naehring      SS         C          20.8
 23       3       64      Hou       Scott Servais      C         C          20.3

There are excellent players at the top of this class and a lot of very good depth. Jim Abbott who ranks 15th amongst college players had a very valuable short career. That’s a huge difference from the HS group. The 3rd ranked HS player, Avery, would be a distant 16th on this list.

Nearly half (seven out of fifteen) of the good players were picked in the first 30 selections with the rest mostly in the 3rd to 8th range so I guess the clustering is ok, but there is definitely a good chunk of mid round sleepers.

[philly sox fan]

Part 7: Players by Position

Note: in the interest of brevity I’m going to write up some of these sections in the form of standard questions that I raised in the 1987 Review.

                P         Pos       C       INF       OF       
totWARP       712.3     1,285.5    164.0    757.8    363.7
20+WARP       546.1     1,111.0    117.0    658.3    335.7

totPlayers     68         75        16      42        17
20+Players     15         21         2      14         5

This is pretty good group of pitchers. Piazza alone makes the catchers great. The class of infielders is very good. If not for an insanely great group in 1989 this would be the best group of infielders in my study by a large margin. The class of outfielders is a little short on depth, but pretty good overall. This is generally just a strong draft across the board.

All Pitchers over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       8      200      Pit       Tim Wakefield*    1B         C          61.7
  2       1        1       SD       Andy Benes       RHP         C          55.6
  3       1       17      Cle       Charles Nagy     RHP         C          53.0
  4      28      732      Tor       Woody Williams*  RHP         C          49.6
  5       1        4      Bal       Gregg Olson      RHP         C          41.1
  6       1        8      Cal       Jim Abbott       LHP         C          40.0
  7       1        3      Atl       Steve Avery      LHP        HS          33.7
  8       2       34      Bal       Arthur Rhodes*    OF        HS          33.3
  9       3       63      Tex       Darren Oliver*   LHP        HS          32.2
 10       6      158      Stl       Rheal Cormier*   LHP        CC          29.1
 11       3       82      Tor       David Weathers*  RHP        CC          27.9
 12       8      190      Atl       Mark Wohlers     RHP        HS          23.2
 13       9      236      Stl       Mark Clark       RHP        CC          22.2
 14       5      112      Atl       Turk Wendell     RHP         C          21.8
 15       7      163      Cle       Greg McMichael   RHP         C          21.7

I generally keep players at the positions they were drafted, but I think it’s more interesting to include converted position players like Wakefield (and Rhodes) with the pitchers and lord knows the pitcher groups could use some plumping up. It says something about the unpredictability of drafting pitchers that the most productive pitcher from this draft wasn’t drafted as pitcher. And, he said teasingly, this won’t be the only time that happens.

Are there any aces? Not really. Wakefield carried the Sox in 1995 and Nagy may have been considered the #1 starter of those offensive powerhouse Indians teams of the 90s, but no not really.

Are there four good #2/3 quality starters? Even discounting Wakefield, I think so. Benes and Nagy certainly were. Abbott and Avery had somewhat short careers, but I would count them. I wouldn’t count Williams despite a very nice WARP3 total because so much of his production was post-FA as an innings eater.

Are there any closers or special relievers? Yes, Olson was one of the original near ready college closers. His career was cut short by injuries but he was a good pitcher.

Did MLB as an industry do a good job clustering talent? Very much so. The four quality starters and the closer were drafted in the first 17 picks. That’s really quite excellent.

All Catchers over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1      62     1390       LA       Mike Piazza*    1B-C        CC          96.7
  2       3       64      Hou       Scott Servais      C         C          20.3

That’s two catchers with an impressive 58 WARP3 average. Don’t you love averages?

All Infielders over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       1       10      CWS       Robin Ventura     3B         C          99.1
  2       4       90      Hou       Luis Gonzalez*    1B         C          93.8
  3       1       14      Sea       Tino Martinez*    1B         C          76.6
  4       1       15       SF       Royce Clayton*    SS        HS          57.5
  5       5      121      Bos       John Valentin     SS         C          56.1
  6       6      140       LA       Erik Karros       1B         C          54.0
  7      30      767      Cal       Damien Easley*  2B-SS       CC          43.5
  8       5      120      Phl       M Morandini       SS         C          42.7
  9       1s      28      Bal       Rickey Gutierrez  SS        HS          26.3
 10       1       25      Tor       Ed Sprague        3B         C          23.7
 11       1       26      Det       Rico Brogna       1B        HS          22.0
 12       6      143      Cal       Gary DiSarcina    SS         C          21.3
 13      30      765      Tex       Jeff Frye         2B         C          20.9
 14       8      199      Bos       Tim Naehring      SS         C          20.8

When I looked back at Ventura I was a little surprised at just how good he was. His career was overshadowed by Frank Thomas, I guess, but he was a very, very good player. Gonzalez production was mostly as an OF in his post-FA years, but at least initially he was a 1B. After those two players there is good depth with another six players that cleared 40 WARP3.

Are the HS infielders clustered at the top? Yes. It’s not an impressive group, but all three were drafted in the first 28 picks.

Are there a lot of mid-round college sleepers? Yes. Valentin, Karros, Morandini, DiSarcina, Naehring and even Frye (though he’s a little later in the draft than normal) are stereotypical examples of what I mean by “mid-round college sleepers”. The players are generally solid all-around as opposed to doing any one thing especially well. They often start as shortstops and have to move to either 2B or 3B. Anybody that is interested in college sleepers should focus on these types of players. Is there anything in these players’ properly translated college stats or scouting reports that separates them from the dozens of other college infielders drafted in these rounds?

All Outfielders over 20 WARP3

         
Rank    Rd     Pick     Team       Player           Pos      School       WARP3
  1       7      169      Cal       Jim Edmonds*      OF        HS          95.8
  2      17      428      Hou       Kenny Lofton*     OF         C          94.5
  3       3       76      Mon       Marquis Grissom*  OF         C          70.9
  4       1s      30      Stl       Brian Jordan*     OF         C          46.8
  5      18      463      Oak       Darren Lewis      OF         C          27.7

Unlike the infielders there’s generally just not enough good outfielders to see any patterns. Edmonds and Lofton have both had great careers, but neither are typical of any kind of a persistent class of player - Lofton because of basketball and Edmonds because it’s just extremely rare to find an up the middle HS player with an over 40 WARP3 career that was drafted after the first few rounds. The only ones I have from these eight drafts are Alex Gonzalez (the Toronto version, 42.4 WARP3; 13th rd), Ray Durham (70.8 WARP3; 5th rd) and Edmonds. Really that’s just two very good up the middle skill players in eight drafts.

Grissom had a very good career and Jordan was a pretty good player as well. There is a little bump in quality c outfielders in the 1s to 3rd rounds, but that bump is mostly confined to the 1987-1989 drafts for whatever reason. They’re also both black college players. Lofton and Lewis are as well. It’s a touchy issue that I don’t really want to go into, but there is discussion from time to time about the lack of black players in the college game. One of the possible explanations that I’ve seen suggested is that the relatively small number of college baseball scholarships (most of which end up being shared by multiple players) available. All college baseball players are expected to pay for a significant portion of their tuition which may predominantly affect black players. As a result perhaps good black HS players are more apt to sign professionally out of HS, then go pro. I know that around this time college baseball changed it’s scholarship rules and you can’t help but noticing that two of the best black college outfielders of this period, Lofton and Jordan, presumably played college baseball on basketball and football scholarships, respectively.

It may just be a coincidence and it’s certainly true that various subgroups of players will cycle up and down during different time periods, but there is a significant change in the number of very good black collegians from the late 1980s to the early 1990s.

Here’s a quick table of black college players that have exceeded 40 WARP3 for their careers broken down by 1987-1989 and 1990-1994.

         1987-1989              1990-1994     
          Frank Thomas           Charles Johnson
          Albert Belle
          Marquis Grissom
          Kenny Lofton
          Brian Jordan
          Mo Vaughn
          Ernie Young

If I did the same breakdown for white collegians there would also be a decrease simply because the late 1980s drafts were much better and deeper drafts overall. But it wouldn’t be this stark. If Johnson had signed as a HS 1st rd pick in 1989, then the college ranks would have produced no 40+ WARP3 players in the early 1990s. I really can’t put that into any context. Are there in fact fewer black players in top tier college programs? Are their fewer black players drafted coming out of college? Is the great group from 1987-89 just an outlier and if that same cohort of players were coming of age now they would coming from the college ranks? Or would they be more likely to be drafted and signed coming out of HS? Beats me.

But I think it’s at least worth noting that one of the reasons that drafts equilibrated between HS and C in the early 1990s may be that potentially good back college players have mostly disappeared. Whether that’s cyclical or a response to economic factors is an unknown.

Part 8: Players by Team

The next table ranks teams by their total WARP3 production. That can sometimes be deceiving so I’ll also break the teams down into smaller groups as well.

Rank    Team    WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
  1      Hou     210.2      Lofton (94.5), Gonzalez (93.8), Servais (20.3)
  2      Cal     204.4      Edmonds (95.8), Easley (43.5), Abbott (40.0), DiSarcina (21.3)
  3       LA     164.6      Piazza (96.7), Karros (54.0)
  4      CWS     110.1      Ventura (99.1)
  5      Bal     105.9      Olson (41.1), Rhodes (33.3), Gutierrez (26.3)
  6      Mon     103.3      Grissom (70.9)
  7      Stl     101.7      Jordan (46.8), Cormier (29.1), Clark (22.2)
  8      Tor     101.1      Williams (49.6), Weathers (27.9), Sprague (23.7)
  9      Cle      99.1      Nagy (53.0), McMichael (21.7)
 10      Bos      96.9      Valentin (56.1), Naehring (20.8), Flaherty (19.6)
 11      Atl      84.3      Avery (33.7), Wohlers (23.2), Wendell (21.8)
 12      Pit      83.6      Wakefield (61.7)
 13      Sea      80.5      Martinez (76.6)
 14       SD      73.4      Benes (55.6)
 15       SF      66.7      Clayton (57.5)
 16      Tex      53.6      Oliver (32.2), Frye (20.9)
 17      Phl      50.3      Morandini (42.7)
 18      NYY      47.6      Sanders (15.6), Kelly (14.8), Davis (9.1)
 19       KC      35.6      Magnante (17.3), Hamelin (10.1)
 20      Oak      34.6      Lewis (27.7)
 21      Det      33.7      Brogna (22.0)
 22      Cin      23.7      Branson (10.3), Spradlin (9.4)
 23      Mil      17.4      Listach (13.5)
 24      Min      14.5      Mahomes (13.9)
 25      Cub       0.7      Kevin Roberson (0.9)
 26      NYM       0.3      Kevin Baez (0.4)

This draft can be easily rearranged to fit the typical draft pattern.

Did three teams have great drafts? Four actually and with five players over 90 WARP3 there would almost have to be. If a team drafts a 90+ WARP3 player it had a great draft.

Rank    Team    WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
  3       LA     164.6      Piazza (96.7), Karros (54.0)
  1      Hou     210.2      Lofton (94.5), Gonzalez (93.8), Servais (20.3)
  2      Cal     204.4      Edmonds (95.8), Easley (43.5), Abbott (40.0), DiSarcina (21.3)
  4      CWS     110.1      Ventura (99.1)

The top three teams drafted one very good to great player and at least one other good one. The White Sox drafted one very good player. These are obvious great drafts. At this point, the Astros 1988 draft class is one of two in my study that has produced two 90+ WARP3 players (though I expect there to be a couple more). However, they didn’t reap very much of that value. As I mentioned much of Gonzalez’ production came in his 30s after a couple trades. The Astros traded Lofton for Eddie Taubensee and missed essentially all of his very valuable pre-FA production. Don’t feel bad for the Astros – next draft the Red Sox get credited with Jeff Bagwell’s production.

Interestingly, most of these players were mid to low round draft picks. Piazza and Karros were 62nd and 6th rd picks. Lofton and Gonzalez were 17th and 4th rd picks. Edmonds and Easley were 7th and 30th rd picks. Only Abbott and Ventura were drafted in the first round. It’s generally true that great drafts depend on nailing the top of the draft, but it’s obviously true that great players and great drafts can come from anywhere.

Were there a half dozen very good drafts and another half dozen good, above average drafts? These two categories often overlap quite a bit. Since there may not be a strong distinction we’ll consider them together. The answer to the question is yes. This was a draft with good depth so a lot of teams did have successful drafts.

Rank    Team    WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
 10      Bos      96.9      Valentin (56.1), Naehring (20.8), Flaherty (19.6)
  6      Mon     103.3      Grissom (70.9)
 13      Sea      80.5      Martinez (76.6)
  9      Cle      99.1      Nagy (53.0), McMichael (21.7)
 14       SD      73.4      Benes (55.6)
  5      Bal     105.9      Olson (41.1), Rhodes (33.3), Gutierrez (26.3)
  7      Stl     101.7      Jordan (46.8), Cormier (29.1), Clark (22.2)

  8      Tor     101.1      Williams (49.6), Weathers (27.9), Sprague (23.7)
 11      Atl      84.3      Avery (33.7), Wohlers (23.2), Wendell (21.8)
 12      Pit      83.6      Wakefield (61.7)
 15       SF      66.7      Clayton (57.5)
 17      Phl      50.3      Morandini (42.7)
 16      Tex      53.6      Oliver (32.2), Frye (20.9)

From a value standpoint the Sox, behind Valentin, probably belong in the great draft category, but he’s certainly not perceived as the kind of great player that can single handedly make a great draft. Grissom, Martinez, Nagy and Benes were all very good and very valuable players. Olson and Jordan are borderline players. There are some depth players in these drafts, but essentially the strength of these drafts is just one player. It is typical that one very good player is enough to push a team into the 4th-9th best draft range.

There are some good, even very good players, in the next group, but they’re generally short career types (eg Avery) or long career accumulators who weren’t that valuable in their pre-FA years. These are solid drafts, but they don’t really push a team forward that much.

Did half the teams have mediocre to bad drafts? No, the good middle range depth means that only nine (out of 26) teams had bad drafts. There are some players who were regulars for a few years (eg Brogna and Lewis), but that’s not enough to consider these good drafts. The most notable thing about this group is that it includes two Rookie of the Year award winners – Bob Hamelin from KC and Pat Listach from Milwaukee. You might think a RoY winner would mean the team at least had a decent draft, but it doesn’t necessarily work out that way.

Rank    Team    WARP3      Key Players (WARP3)
 18      NYY      47.6      Sanders (15.6), Kelly (14.8), Davis (9.1)
 19       KC      35.6      Magnante (17.3), Hamelin (10.1)
 20      Oak      34.6      Lewis (27.7)
 21      Det      33.7      Brogna (22.0)
 22      Cin      23.7      Branson (10.3), Spradlin (9.4)
 23      Mil      17.4      Listach (13.5)
 24      Min      14.5      Mahomes (13.9)
 25      Cub       0.7      Kevin Roberson (0.9)
 26      NYM       0.3      Kevin Baez (0.4)