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Sox as Sellers


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#1 86spike


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Posted 16 July 2010 - 11:11 PM

No, they're not there yet, but how far out of the playoff picture would Boston have to slip before 7/31 to become sellers?

Beltre, Victor and maybe even Ortiz could bring back some attractive young talent. Papelbon could bring in a king's ransom.

How bad would it have to be to convince you to do it?

#2 SoxScout


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Posted 16 July 2010 - 11:20 PM

Papelbon could bring in a king's ransom.

I image everyone see what we do, 2007-08 Papelbon is long gone. You are going to have to pay him like $12 mil as a closer next year, how many teams teams can afford to do that? Even if money didn't matter, what contender really needs him?

I don't see it.

I could see V-Mart bringing back something more interesting than two draft picks, maybe, but I really doubt it would happen (esp now that Texas sold out for Lee and brought in Molina).

Edited by SoxScout, 16 July 2010 - 11:22 PM.


#3 MHead81

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Posted 16 July 2010 - 11:23 PM

Maybe I'm in the minority, maybe not, but I'd like to see this team brought back next year with a few minor tweeks and have a look at what they could do if reasonably healthy all season. Assuming the "adjustment to a new team" thing is real, that should help get them off to a better start. I like this particular team a lot and I think they would've had a real shot to win it all if not for these injuries, which makes it a shame to see all these great seasons by guys like Buchholz, Lester, Youkilis and Beltre being wasted.

#4 Rasputin


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Posted 16 July 2010 - 11:52 PM

There's just about no chance of blowing it up, not by any reasonable definition of blowing it up.

If we're 10+ games behind the wild card come the deadline selling is definitely possible though, as depressing as it sounds.

Who goes would be the guys not bound to the team long term especially those with in house replacements.

Papelbon, Beltre, Scutaro, Cameron, Drew, Papi, Lowell, Hall, Victor Martinez.

Of course, some of these guys need to demonstrate some health first and some of them it makes a bunch more sense to extend than trade.

I think Beltre makes the most sense as he was always a short term investment. Papelbon would probably bring the biggest return.

Eh, I don't think we're going to see much trading either way.

#5 Philip Jeff Frye


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 12:01 AM

Beltre, Victor and maybe even Ortiz could bring back some attractive young talent.

I've seen this point made several times over the last few weeks here. So who catches next year if we don't extend Martinez? Varitek? Kevin Cash? One of the many Molinas?

I've got to think the Sox are thinking more about "How do we lock VMart up?" than "How much can we move VMart for in the next two weeks?" given the paucity of replacements.

#6 Buzzkill Pauley


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 12:23 AM

As I see it, the pieces the Sox could potentially sell while fielding a competitive AL East team next year are, in order of likely value to a 2010 contender:

1) Papelbon
2) Ellsbury
3) Matsuzaka
4) Beltre

5) Martinez
6) Cameron
7) Okajima
8) Delcarmen
9) Ramirez

The rest of the position players on one-year or milb free agent contracts

a bag of balls

the rest of the bullpen except Bard

a single fenway frank

Lowell

--

For the first group of four, the team would have to be about 8 games back in the wild card with three teams ahead of them (say Tampa, Detroit, and Minnesota). For numbers 5-9, I'd say about 6 games back with two teams ahead of them. For the rest...make an offer, any offer!

Regardless, I think the Sox will try to keep a stiff upper lip, keep dancin' with them what brung ya, and look to see what value can be had for Ellsbury in the offseason. And then breathe a sigh of relief that they're not still writing $20M in checks to Lowell and Lugo.

Edited by Buzzkill Pauley, 17 July 2010 - 12:56 AM.


#7 JakeRae


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 12:36 AM

With both Beltre and Martinez, I think it will be challenging to get enough of a return to make trading them worth it. Either they are looking at bringing these players back on extensions or they are looking at getting 2 draft picks back when they leave. The draft picks plus the chance of making the playoffs, plus the fact the cost to the organization of appearing to have given up on the season is going to be too great for trading either to be worthwhile.

Pretty much anyone else with value is someone who the team is going to be counting on next year. Ortiz has limited trade value given his position and is almost certainly more valuable back next year on his option than whatever would come back if he were traded. And, that's before accounting for the PR hit. Papelbon is the closer again next year and the last thing this organization can afford to do is move a quality bullpen arm. Drew is a key component of next years team. Cameron has zero value to a contender this year but could be a valuable player again next year.

I could see Hermida or Hall or some of the other complimentary pieces getting moved if things take a turn for the worse. But, it's hard to imagine the team so far out of contention by the deadline that moving a serious asset makes sense and even harder to figure out who they could get enough back for to make it worth it. They are still just 3.5 out of the wildcard and it's looking like the roster is going to start coming back together soon. We just all need to be patient for a little while longer and then hope that they are good enough once healthy to go on a run.

#8 MHead81

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Posted 17 July 2010 - 12:43 AM

I've seen this point made several times over the last few weeks here. So who catches next year if we don't extend Martinez? Varitek? Kevin Cash? One of the many Molinas?

I've got to think the Sox are thinking more about "How do we lock VMart up?" than "How much can we move VMart for in the next two weeks?" given the paucity of replacements.


I agree, and I think Theo values Martinez much more than many think. Even today on the pregame show with Peter Gammons Theo stressed how difficult it is to find offense up the middle, so it's obviously on his mind. Here we are with one of the best offensive catchers in the game and people want to get rid of him. I think we could re-sign him at a reasonably fair contract given how open he has been about wanting to stay.

I'd also consider hanging on to Beltre for 4-5 years. He can obviously play here so I think it's worth the money, and a combo of Beltre and Youkilis at the corners will be far cheaper than signing Pujols, Gonzalez or Fielder, not to mention that it's much better defensively. I'd be interested to see a poll on this eventually.

#9 SoxinSeattle

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Posted 17 July 2010 - 12:48 AM

This season could easily turn in to the biggest "what could have beens" that I can remember. I was very skeptical of Theo's off season vision but half way through you have to say that if healthy this team could easily be a few games ahead of two amazing AL East rivals. It would be a shame to have to blow it up.

Edited by SoxinSeattle, 17 July 2010 - 12:49 AM.


#10 Rasputin


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 12:51 AM

As I see it, the pieces the Sox could potentially sell are while fielding a competitive AL East team next year are, in order of likely value to a 2010 contender:

1) Papelbon
2) Ellsbury
3) Matsuzaka
4) Beltre


Seriously?

The guy who has played 9 games all year is going to have more value than the all star third baseman? Really? And the guy who will be heading into his first arb year is going to get traded?

I don't see it.

#11 Sprowl


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 01:54 AM

Seriously?

The guy who has played 9 games all year is going to have more value than the all star third baseman? Really? And the guy who will be heading into his first arb year is going to get traded?

I don't see it.

Ellsbury is a good centerfielder and a great baserunner on a cheap contract for less than half a million, and with only 2.037 years of major league service. I think he would be more valuable than Papelbon or Beltre in a trade, each one of whom is a rental -- a slightly longer rental in Papelbon's case, but not a cheap one. Ellsbury's apparent estrangement from the Red Sox management and medical staff increases the chance that Epstein would listen carefully to offers, and the fact that he has only played 9 games doesn't make much difference when talking about a fluke injury like a Beltrib.


Given how well the Red Sox were playing just before the wave of injuries hit, I can't imagine Theo opting to be a Seller before the July trading deadline. The August waiver wire deadline is another matter: if the Red Sox lose more ground with the Replacement Red Sox playing, and then can't make the ground back up when the injured players return, I imagine that nearly the entire team would be put through waivers. At that point in late August, any of the players on Buzzkill's list that make it through waivers could be moved.

I don't see it happening, since the return of a few regulars will help the team a lot, and I think the Red Sox will be contending for the playoffs in September. But if the swoon continues for another month, then we'll see Theo Epstein as

he wheels his wheelbarrow
through streets broad and narrow
crying Okis and Beltres, alive alive-O


#12 BucketOBalls


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 02:37 AM

No, they're not there yet, but how far out of the playoff picture would Boston have to slip before 7/31 to become sellers?

Beltre, Victor and maybe even Ortiz could bring back some attractive young talent. Papelbon could bring in a king's ransom.


If you could get a kings ransom while securing reasonable replacements...sure.

That said...I don't see what players the Sox would both want to move and would bring back something interesting. Coolstandings gives the Sox a 30% playoff chance. I wouldn't sell of players just to save money at this point, but if you could get some elite talent back...I would do it. I thinking somethinl trading VMart and Paps for something like Jesus Montero+(pick an elite pre-MLB prospect. I'm that up on these things, but first I thought of)....which won't happen.

That's pretty much the only way I sell. I'd be willing to sacrifice this year to improve the next few, as this year isn't looking all that good anyway, and could get worse by the deadline. I don't think there is any deal like that out there though.

#13 Eric Van


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 05:50 AM

No, they're not there yet, but how far out of the playoff picture would Boston have to slip before 7/31 to become sellers?

How bad would it have to be to convince you to do it?

I'd be seriously discouraged if we were 15 games out (which could be overcome by playing .750 ball versus .500) and call it close to impossible if we were 20 back.

Not going to happen. Pointless thread. You don't blow up what is clearly and easily the best team in MLB when healthy if there's any reasonable glimmer of hope, and we'd have to lose nearly a game in the standings a day to lose that glimmer.

#14 Paul M


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 07:16 AM

You don't blow up what is clearly and easily the best team in MLB when healthy if there's any reasonable glimmer of hope, and we'd have to lose nearly a game in the standings a day to lose that glimmer.


Under what method of yours is this EASILY and CLEARLY the best team in MLB? Maybe the when healthy transports Beckett back to a few years ago? This is a very good team but the team you're talking about exists on a simulation with 25% odds. The likely version is something less. I'd take Texas and NY and still maybe Tampa.

As for blowing it up or punt ahead of the trading deadline--a SoSH tradition going back to 1998--only if they saw all their injured guys not able to be themselves until September would you see a sell-off. I think Beltre and Martinez would go but the price Boston would assign would be huge. Unless some GM pulls a Colletti with Casey Blake and trades a Carlos Santana type or even a Josh Bell for George Sherrill type deal, I don't see it.

#15 86spike


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 07:20 AM

My breaking point would be 8 games out of the WC. Arbitrary, sure... But TB isn't going to implode down the stretch.

Beltre is the most obvious move. He will decline his 2011 option and go after a 5 year deal. There is very little chance that the Sox give him that deal. His time with the Sox is running out.

If the playoffs are unlikely, why not turn him into some developing parts?

#16 Plympton91


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 07:22 AM

I don't think you blow up at the July 31st deadline at all. The offense was incredibly good when healthy (and they never had Ellsbury) and as the starting pitching -- Beckett -- gets healthy you add quality to the bullpen. The goal should be to get everybody back by August 1st or so, and then see if you can go on a 40-17 run like the 2004 team did. I don't think it is out of the question at all. So, I wouldn't be thinking about blowing it up unless the deficit was 6 or more games to both the Yankees and Rays as you approach the August 31st waiver deadline.

#17 yecul


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 08:27 AM

the team you're talking about exists on a simulation with 25% odds.


So the real and true team?

But seriously, that's the problem. We still don't know the team's identity nor is it possible to know. No player is out for the full year, for example, and the return timeline ranges from ~now to 2+ weeks.

The largest problem is that the returns may be limited. Does Papelbon have significant trade value? Do they want to trade VMart or Beltre -- they are both young enough and good enough that they might want to retain their services. Etc.

Everything finally caught up with them and they fell hard and fast, yet are still right in the playoff race. What will the next few weeks bring? Probably not much forward progress, but hopefully not a significant fallback either.

If they collapse, then they might as well sell a few parts. It's hard to see them being major buyers under any circumstance. A reliever or role player? Sure.

#18 Joe Shlabotnick

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Posted 17 July 2010 - 08:28 AM

I don't think you blow up at the July 31st deadline at all. The offense was incredibly good when healthy (and they never had Ellsbury) and as the starting pitching -- Beckett -- gets healthy you add quality to the bullpen. The goal should be to get everybody back by August 1st or so, and then see if you can go on a 40-17 run like the 2004 team did. I don't think it is out of the question at all. So, I wouldn't be thinking about blowing it up unless the deficit was 6 or more games to both the Yankees and Rays as you approach the August 31st waiver deadline.



With all due respect, what quality do you add to the bullpen when Beckett returns? Wakefield? Given his performance to date this season, I'm not sure that is an accurate statement. Doubront will likely be sent down when Buchholz returns so it won't be him who is added to the pen.

#19 maufman


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 09:18 AM

I'm more intrigued than most by the reset option, even though I think there's zero chance Theo goes for it unless the Sox fall something like 10 games back.

The one piece that would go in any house-cleaning is V-Mart. By all outward appearances, the Sox have zero interest in re-signing him, and he'd easily net something more valuable than two draft picks. I'm sure Beltre would also fetch a better return than the Type A compensation, but no one is going to bowl them over. And if the Sox trade Beltre, they'll need to sign a 3B this offseason. Unless the FO has information that Beltre is hell-bent on playing elsewhere next season, I expect they'll keep him and see if he'll re-sign, with the two picks as a decent consolation prize if he leaves.

SoSH underestimates Papelbon's value. There still are clubs that will overpay for a "proven closer," particularly a top-tier guy with a World Series ring. Any club who traded for Paps in July would be at least as interested in his "winning attitude" as the 30 innings he could give them down the stretch; aside from ruling out the stat-minded clubs, it's hard to speculate who the buyers would be.

Ortiz is a 10/5 guy whose image is forever tarnished by the PED thing, and as a pure DH, he has half the potential destinations of the other guys. Even if he'd agree to go, his 2011 option is worth more than he'd bring in trade.

Whether they're buyers or sellers, I expect the FO to float Ellsbury's name this month, but I don't think he's worth as much now as he will be in the winter, provided he comes back and plays decently for at least a month.

Once you commit to a sell strategy, then a lot of other guys could move, including pretty much everyone in the bullpen besides Bard. But like I said, I think the odds of any of this happening are near zero.

#20 Trautwein's Degree


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 09:43 AM

The Sox should sell if Theo thinks it will make the team better for 2011. There's no way this team makes the playoffs. Maybe if they played in another division they'd have a shot with this team. Even without the injuries, it was always going to be tough to keep pace with the Yankees and Rays. With Pedroia in a cast for another two weeks it's unlikely they'll get him back before the end of August. Baseball Prospectus gives the Sox a 35% chance at making the playoffs but that number has trended downward 16% over the past 7 days. With a West Coast trip on the horizon there's little to suggest the Sox's playoff chances will improve.

Alex Gordon is the guy, I'd love to see Theo pry from the Royals. Gordon is absolutely raking in AAA. He's learning to play the outfield and was at one time considered a good defensive third baseman. The Red Sox could do worse than getting him some playing time down the stretch and seeing what he could give them. In the event Beltre were to leave, Gordon could help soften the blow.

#21 4 6 3 DP

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Posted 17 July 2010 - 09:48 AM

I would think the #1 organizational need is a catcher if they are not going to re-sign Martinez. Second would obviously be some form of OF power or a long term 3B. I would sell a piece to lock that down, not sure unless they're dead to rights out of it I'd deal otherwise.

#22 Rasputin


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 10:05 AM

Once you commit to a sell strategy, then a lot of other guys could move, including pretty much everyone in the bullpen besides Bard. But like I said, I think the odds of any of this happening are near zero.


I'm pretty sure that committing to a sell strategy is a concept the front office would struggle to even comprehend. It's a bad baseball strategy in general and certainly a horrible one here. What the team will do this year is the same as every year, evaluate the short term and long term benefits of any deal. If we're 10+ games out (or whatever the point is that is a given for this thread) then the short term benefits to the W-L record are going to be decreased relative to the long term value.

They're not going to go into this thing saying we have x commodities, what can we get for them. They're going to go into this thing saying we have x commodities can we make the team better over the next several years by dealing them.

There is virtually no chance of breaking it down to rebuild. That isn't likely to be part of their mindset and frankly it shouldn't be. The team has a number of mid and long term pieces in place that are doing their jobs well and should continue to do so. Don't fuck with it. There are short term pieces that could potentially bring back pieces of longer term value.

And as I think others have mentioned the two most interesting pieces to me are Victor Martinez and David Ortiz for varied reasons. If either goes, is it the end of their time in Boston?

And the long term needs remain the same, catcher, power bat, competent but not necessarily star outfielders.

#23 P'tucket, rhymes with...


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 10:08 AM

Under what method of yours is this EASILY and CLEARLY the best team in MLB?


Cubic transformation.

I don't see much movement one way or the other. For better or worse, the first half has shown the FO that the team can make up ground in a hurry after appearing to be dead in the water for long stretches of time, and we probably won't be far enough out of it to justify moving into "sell" mode.

#24 Snodgrass'Muff


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 10:12 AM

I'm sure Beltre would also fetch a better return than the Type A compensation, but no one is going to bowl them over. And if the Sox trade Beltre, they'll need to sign a 3B this offseason. Unless the FO has information that Beltre is hell-bent on playing elsewhere next season, I expect they'll keep him and see if he'll re-sign, with the two picks as a decent consolation prize if he leaves.


How sure can we be that Beltre will be a type A and not a type B, though? His OPS last year was .683, which obviously will bring his value down despite a great year this year. I wouldn't be comfortable assuming he'd be worth type A compensation. How confident can we be that Beltre will be rated as one of the 6 best third basemen in baseball over the last two years?

By wOBA, he's leading the majors this year, which obviously helps his case. But he's competing with guys like Longoria, Wright, Rolen, Young, Zimmerman and ARod. Jose Bautista is up there this year as well. But at .305 last year, he was one of the worst offensive third basemen in the majors to see significant time on the field. ARod, Wright, Longoria, Rolen, Zimmerman and Young all had far superior offensive seasons last year, so there's a pretty good chance they all get ranked ahead of him. At least, a good enough chance that I'm not willing to assume type A compensation for letting Beltre walk.

#25 Rasputin


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 10:15 AM

Under what method of yours is this EASILY and CLEARLY the best team in MLB? Maybe the when healthy transports Beckett back to a few years ago? This is a very good team but the team you're talking about exists on a simulation with 25% odds. The likely version is something less. I'd take Texas and NY and still maybe Tampa.

As for blowing it up or punt ahead of the trading deadline--a SoSH tradition going back to 1998--only if they saw all their injured guys not able to be themselves until September would you see a sell-off. I think Beltre and Martinez would go but the price Boston would assign would be huge. Unless some GM pulls a Colletti with Casey Blake and trades a Carlos Santana type or even a Josh Bell for George Sherrill type deal, I don't see it.


If you had all the injured players back and playing at established levels I'd be flummoxed by anyone who didn't think this was the best team in baseball. Bullpen issues to be sure and the roster is less flexible than desired but once Buchholz came through and started pitching at a high level it was pretty much done.

Of course it's all hypothetical bullshit since they aren't back right now playing at established levels and even when they are back they might not be playing at established levels so who the fuck really cares?

Eric Van is right in that this is a hell of a team.

#26 Crazy Puppy

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Posted 17 July 2010 - 10:23 AM

How sure can we be that Beltre will be a type A and not a type B, though? His OPS last year was .683, which obviously will bring his value down despite a great year this year. I wouldn't be comfortable assuming he'd be worth type A compensation. How confident can we be that Beltre will be rated as one of the 6 best third basemen in baseball over the last two years?

By wOBA, he's leading the majors this year, which obviously helps his case. But he's competing with guys like Longoria, Wright, Rolen, Young, Zimmerman and ARod. Jose Bautista is up there this year as well. But at .305 last year, he was one of the worst offensive third basemen in the majors to see significant time on the field. ARod, Wright, Longoria, Rolen, Zimmerman and Young all had far superior offensive seasons last year, so there's a pretty good chance they all get ranked ahead of him. At least, a good enough chance that I'm not willing to assume type A compensation for letting Beltre walk.

Here's a look at an attempted reverse-engineering of the Elias rankings. Beltre was a Type A as of 7/14, according to their calculation.

#27 SoxFanSince57


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 10:32 AM

Some obvious point about adopting a "sell strategy" are 1) what players have value, 2) what those players would command in the market and most importantly IMO 3) what type of team are you building for in the future including the holes that have to be filled.

IMO, V-Mart and Beltre are two players who have value, but would be players I would like to see on the team in the future. Personally, at some point, I would actively explore the market for Paps and Ortiz, because I am not committed to retaining them after the 2011 season. I see V-Mart and others as DH and I see Bard as a potential closer. I "believe" (key for me, but understandably not necessarily the way Theo or anyone else sees it) that Paps will demand a max contract and will go to the highest bidder and David will also demand a long-term contract that the Sox won't want. Both players' contract demands (money and years) will make it too difficult for Theo to retain IMO. So they are the players who have value and could help produce a winner down the road.

I hope that the Sox are in on the bidding for Cliff Lee. I would hope that any trade of Paps and Papi would yield the prospects or players who could strengthen the team's talent pool in AAA and help solve the need for a catcher and corner outfielder.

I do not think Theo should click on the "for sale" sign yet. I still believe that if everyone got healthy and the Sox played well they can catch the Rays, win the WC and then win the WS. I haven't given up, but it would be nice to pick up some bullpen help SOON.

#28 MHead81

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Posted 17 July 2010 - 10:35 AM

Beltre is the most obvious move. He will decline his 2011 option and go after a 5 year deal. There is very little chance that the Sox give him that deal. His time with the Sox is running out.


Why not? Since long before this offseason Theo has been interested in him and now he finally has him and he's playing better than most projections, although I won't be surprised if his AVG & OBP come down a litlle bit in the second half. Again, he'll be much cheaper than signing one of Gonzalez, Fielder or Pujols, not to mention that signing one of those 3 sends Youkilis left at the point in his career when he should be close to moving the other direction. Is it a guarantee that he'll be back? No, but I don't think I'd say that there's "very little chance." This isn't some throw-in salary dump Theo acquired that we're talking about, it's a guy Theo has pursued in the past as well.

#29 OCD SS


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 10:43 AM

The only real pieces this team has to sell are VMart, Beltre, and Scutaro. Both Beltre and VMart will bring back 2 draft picks, and with next years draft being both exceptionally strong and the last draft under the current CBA that allows unlimited spending, you'd really have to get a lot for any of them to make it worth while.

And of course they would all be the starters next year if they came back, so dealing them means finding an immediate replacement. There doesn't look to be a better option (to any of them) on the FA market, and you only have Lowrie or Exposito/ Wagner on the farm. Those are serious downgrades to the 2011 team.

#30 Snodgrass'Muff


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 10:47 AM

Here's a look at an attempted reverse-engineering of the Elias rankings. Beltre was a Type A as of 7/14, according to their calculation.


Interesting read. Mike Lowell is still considered a type B in this break down, despite only 91 PA's this season. I wonder how likely it is that after a full season of such limited time (or less going forward) that he can hold on to type B? It doesn't look like there are all that many third basemen nipping at his heels. Of course, the Sox would have to offer him arb, which he might accept if no one else is offering him a decent contract, so the point is likely moot.

#31 BucketOBalls


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 12:37 PM

Players and their sell value:

Papelbon: Proven closers seem to be over-valued. Seems like the best chance of pulling the wool over someone's eyes and getting something good.

Beltre: I like the guy, but due to the type of player he is(when those reflexes decline, it could be ugly quick), I would be wary of giving him a long term deal, so I don't think you can resign him, as he will get more years elsewhere. I'd love to bring him back on a 2-3 year deal, but I think it takes more than that, so I'd look at the trade options.

Beckett/Lackey/Dice-K: Trade one of them for stuff, give the money to Cliff Lee in the off season. Lee will probably be just as good(if not better) going forward and you also get stuff!

I don't think you can trade V-Mart without having some sort of backup plan for his position. Cash isn't it of course.

#32 Snodgrass'Muff


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 01:26 PM

Beckett/Lackey/Dice-K: Trade one of them for stuff, give the money to Cliff Lee in the off season. Lee will probably be just as good(if not better) going forward and you also get stuff!


Daisuke makes 10 million a year going forward. Lackey will make 15.25 a year and Beckett will make 15.75 a year. In order to free up the money it will take to win Lee in a bidding war with the Yankees, the Sox will have to trade Daisuke and one of the other two. And there is virtually no chance the Sox will trade either Beckett or Lackey after giving each long term deals in the previous off season. They're better off using any money they can free up to sign Werth if he makes it to the free agent market.

If I can get past the idea of the Sox being sellers (it's pretty far fetched, though), Beltre is the first piece I try to move. Considering his affordable contract, he's a great addition for a playoff hopeful team like the White Sox or the Tigers. He's be a significant upgrade for both and give them a player who could be quite helpful in a playoff run this year. If the Angels fancy themselves contenders, Wood has been a giant pile of suck at 3rd so far, and Beltre would be a huge upgrade for them.

If the Braves are looking to shore up their roster for the playoffs, Beltre would be a big upgrade over Chipper Jones, though it might be a stretch to think that Cox would sit Chipper in what might be his last season. But it's not an unreasonable potential destination. The Cardinals are currently starting Felipe Lopez at third and might be looking to capitalize on having Pujols and Holliday there before Pujols hits the free agent market (likely after the 2011 season) and they risk losing him. I'm sure they intend to try and keep him, but it's far from a guarantee that he'll stay for what will surely be less money than the market can offer him. There's also the Phillies who might be interested in upgrading over Dobbs.

And then there's the entire NL West (sans Arizona) who could stand to upgrade third base and are all within a half game of the division lead. In other words, there's no shortage of teams who might be interested in upgrading at third who are playoff contenders and would find a half a year of Beltre at 9 million (so little over 4) plus the draft picks they'll get when he turns down arbitration to be very attractive. The Sox could even subsidize the contract to try and increase the return.

Of course, I just can't see them selling this year, considering how good this team is when healthy.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 17 July 2010 - 01:28 PM.


#33 Philip Jeff Frye


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 02:00 PM

Beckett/Lackey/Dice-K: Trade one of them for stuff, give the money to Cliff Lee in the off season. Lee will probably be just as good(if not better) going forward and you also get stuff!

Why wouldn't the hypothetical trade partner just keep the stuff and use the cash they're not paying Beckett/Lackey/Dice-K to sign Lee?

#34 E5 Yaz


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 02:10 PM

Why wouldn't the hypothetical trade partner just keep the stuff and use the cash they're not paying Beckett/Lackey/Dice-K to sign Lee?


We'll use mind control on them

#35 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 02:11 PM

Beckett/Lackey/Dice-K: Trade one of them for stuff, give the money to Cliff Lee in the off season. Lee will probably be just as good(if not better) going forward and you also get stuff!

You just named the 3 hardest pitchers on the team to trade.

Beckett just signed a long-term deal with the Sox. He's not going anywhere.
Lackey just signed a long-term deal and is in the first year of a deal -- he can't be traded without his permission.
Matsuzaka has a no-trade clause. He MIGHT be get traded -- but he has to show he can be reasonably consistent first.

Moreover, if you DON'T sign Lee, you're left with... stuff. And money. And no pitcher.

Did you think this through first?

Edited by CaptainLaddie, 17 July 2010 - 02:12 PM.


#36 MHead81

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Posted 17 July 2010 - 02:30 PM

Lackey just signed a long-term deal and is in the first year of a deal -- he can't be traded without his permission.


Isn't there a date some time in July of the first year a player signs with a team that, once passed, a team can trade the player without his permission, assuming there isn't a no-trade clause in his contract? Not saying Lackey will be traded, I just thought that was the case. As far as I can tell from Cot's, Lackey doesn't have any other no-trade protection. But again, I'm not saying he will be traded, I'm just asking if this is correct or not.

#37 Crazy Puppy

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Posted 17 July 2010 - 02:43 PM

Isn't there a date some time in July of the first year a player signs with a team that, once passed, a team can trade the player without his permission, assuming there isn't a no-trade clause in his contract? Not saying Lackey will be traded, I just thought that was the case. As far as I can tell from Cot's, Lackey doesn't have any other no-trade protection. But again, I'm not saying he will be traded, I'm just asking if this is correct or not.

June 15

#38 Buzzkill Pauley


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 03:14 PM

Quite frankly, I would much rather see Matsuzaka pitch game four of a playoff series than Lackey. We've at least seen flashes of good DiceK, where Lackey has pretty much sucked consistently. That, to me, argues against trading him.

Theo has locked up the current starting pitching through 2012, which is a very good thing. To my mind, unless LA is offering up Kemp or Broxton, I just can't see how trading Matsuzaka improves the club over that time frame. And that's not even considering the no-trade clause.

I know he frustrates some folks, but I think he's here to stay. As is Lackey. Sigh.

#39 CaptainLaddie


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 03:48 PM

June 15

Fair enough.
Regardless -- Lackey just signed a 5 year deal worth a TON of money and I don't see ANY team taking on that contract considering Lackey's production.

Moreover, I don't see the Red Sox doing it because a) it leaves them a pitcher short and b) it makes them look like real assholes. "Sign here, long term! Then we'll deal you." This isn't like Arroyo taking a team-friendly deal and getting moved; this is a free-agent pitcher, the biggest on the market from last season.

#40 nvalvo


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 04:10 PM

How sure can we be that Beltre will be a type A and not a type B, though? His OPS last year was .683, which obviously will bring his value down despite a great year this year. I wouldn't be comfortable assuming he'd be worth type A compensation. How confident can we be that Beltre will be rated as one of the 6 best third basemen in baseball over the last two years?


I don't know how sure we can be, but Brimac seems to think he'll be "comfortably in the middle" of the Type As.

Edited by nvalvo, 17 July 2010 - 04:12 PM.


#41 mauidano


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 04:27 PM

Lots of panic and anxiety here. It's not even close to over yet. Just hit a very tough stretch against some very good teams lately, TB and Texas. You can only go so far on "temp help". However as mentioned numerous times, we have exceptional players who are coming back relatively soon. If they can live up to the potential they have shown, we will definitely be in the mix come September. Glaring weakness is bullpen, don't think looking around is always the answer. With the payroll tax issues, it makes no sense to gamble the future. We have very good players, we just need a couple of guys to step up and throw some decent innings. Catcher is another glaring weakness but Wiktor is around the corner. While I'm at it, enough with the "rehab assignments" already! MDC, Bucholz and Beckett need to get in NOW!

#42 kazuneko

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Posted 17 July 2010 - 06:31 PM

So, I was just looking at some of the stats of the various playoff contenders trying to figure out who might match up with the Sox and, in particular, who might have an interest in Beltre ( who is the one player who -at least in my mind - represents the most short-term value to a contender while simultaneously having the least long-term value to the Sox) and one team really stood out. Umh, anyone else think that the Padres could use another hitter...and as long as your not talking about a 1st basemen (the kinda got that covered) or a DH it doesn't really matter what position they play.
Actually, the Padres are a pretty remarkable team. Currently, of the 167 major league players that have enough ABs to qualify for the batting title, the Padres have one player whose OPS ranks in the top 10 (Adrian Gonzalez -at a 940 OPS-is #9) and 2 players that rank in the top 139 (Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Headley whose 708 OPS ranks him 133rd in baseball). Their team OPS is actually a remarkably high 698 (considering the have only qualified batter over 708) but that still leaves them 27th in the league. That said, their 3.22 team ERA is far and away the best in baseball.
So I don't know if you would have to throw in any money (he's owed about 4.5 million for the rest of the year) and I don't know if San Diego sees itself as actually trying to contend for a title (or just happy to make the playoffs), but assuming San Diego actually has an interest in winning a world championship they are going to have to make a move for some offense and Beltre would certainly fit the bill. Heck, the way San Diego hits you'd have to think there might be a few players on the Sox roster who might interest them. Mike Cameron, for example. If he can string enough games together to prove he's healthy would certainly be a hitting upgrade over any of their outfielders. Heck, the way Hall has been hitting, and since the Brewers already are paying for most his salary, he might be particularly attractive to the Pads. Hall could go straight from being a back-up infielder with sox to San Diego's clean-up hitter (if they hit Adrian Gonzalez #3).....

Edited by kazuneko, 17 July 2010 - 06:33 PM.


#43 dcmissle


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 06:54 PM

I don't know about panic, but the anxiety is justified. I think we've dropped 6 games in the standings to the Yanks, and 5 games to the Rays, in the last 10. Fare half as poorly in the next 10, we're likely done absent something you can't reasonably count on -- a run of injuries to one of those two teams that approximates what has happened to the Sox.

Still, how does this change much longer term other than advancing by two months a process that otherwise would get going in earnest this October? Lowell and others may go, but they'll just go earlier and maybe for a little bit more. I suppose Paps is the exception; there is no way he'll go this year while they are in contention, and I suppose a team with very good chances could have its closer go down and then overpay for him. But who else?

Edited by dcmissle, 17 July 2010 - 06:57 PM.


#44 kazuneko

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Posted 17 July 2010 - 08:08 PM

Still, how does this change much longer term other than advancing by two months a process that otherwise would get going in earnest this October? Lowell and others may go, but they'll just go earlier and maybe for a little bit more. I suppose Paps is the exception; there is no way he'll go this year while they are in contention, and I suppose a team with very good chances could have its closer go down and then overpay for him. But who else?

Beltre.
He has plenty of value for plenty of teams and there is little to no reason to keep him if the the Sox aren't making the playoffs. The chances seem slim to none that they would resign him and you should be able to get more value than the picks by trading him. The problem is that unless the Sox fall out of contention in a hurry it will be real hard to make that call for certain by the trade deadline. And, of course, since he is probably the second best position player on the team if there is any significant chance that the Sox could contend you would never want to trade him...

Edited by kazuneko, 17 July 2010 - 08:09 PM.


#45 snowmanny

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Posted 17 July 2010 - 08:40 PM

Beltre.
He has plenty of value for plenty of teams and there is little to no reason to keep him if the the Sox aren't making the playoffs. The chances seem slim to none that they would resign him and you should be able to get more value than the picks by trading him. The problem is that unless the Sox fall out of contention in a hurry it will be real hard to make that call for certain by the trade deadline. And, of course, since he is probably the second best position player on the team if there is any significant chance that the Sox could contend you would never want to trade him...


I assume that all the posters who say that the Red Sox have no reason to resign Beltre are presuming that:
A - Youkilis can be seamlessly moved back to third AND
B- the Sox are either going to trade for a first baseman this winter OR find a different stopgap guy for a year before signing a huge $ first baseman after 2011.

Am I missing something? Who is the third baseman next year that makes the odds of keeping an all-star " slim to none?"

#46 FanSinceBoggs

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Posted 17 July 2010 - 08:43 PM

I think the Red Sox should be realists and sellers at the trade deadline. Two points:

(1) As a result of the injuries, the odds are against the Red Sox making the playoffs this year. Epstein put together an excellent team, but the difficult and competitive AL East isn't kind to teams that lose quality players to injury.
(2) The Yankees are the best team in baseball. They won the W.S. last year and have the best record in baseball this year. The road to the W.S. will most likely go through the Bronx. The Red Sox are 4-14 against the Yankees since the 2009 All-Star break. That record doesn't inspire confidence.

While I would be thrilled to see the Red Sox trade Beltre and/or Papelbon for major league ready prospects, I wouldn't want them to move Victor Martinez. Instead, I would like to see the Red Sox sign Martinez long term and use him as the full time DH in 2011 and beyond.

#47 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 08:54 PM

This team is a few games out of the playoffs, and we are talking about selling? Why? The idea of trading guys like Papelbon and Beltre during the season is silly, considering that the team has zero depth at these positions. You keep everyone you've got, and you offer arbitration to the guys who end up being FA, and see what happens. I know folks like to hate on Papelbon, but if you're a high payroll team and one of your issues is the bullpen, why would you trade your #2 arm? Why trade Beltre? Who would play 3B in such a situation? If you trade Martinez, who catches? Kevin Cash? If you have capable replacements, than you can think about moving players to address other areas but all of these "punt" scenarios suggest trading players who play positions where the Sox have zero depth. Makes no sense to me.

Trading Papelbon, Martinez, Beltre, etc. doesn't make lots of sense to me. The easiest way to get better is to replace your shittiest players, not your best.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 17 July 2010 - 08:56 PM.


#48 someoneanywhere

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Posted 17 July 2010 - 09:01 PM

I think the Red Sox should be realists and sellers at the trade deadline. Two points:

(2) The Yankees are the best team in baseball. They won the W.S. last year and have the best record in baseball this year. The road to the W.S. will most likely go through the Bronx. The Red Sox are 4-14 against the Yankees since the 2009 All-Star break. That record doesn't inspire confidence.


So Theo should really have been thinking about blowing it up even if everyone were healthy? You start thinking and playing the game this way, you might as well not even come to the park, let alone be the GM of the team.

#49 wade boggs chicken dinner


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 09:34 PM

It's almost comical how threads like this one make perfectly rational people, well, irrational.

Lackey and Beckett are not going to get traded. The Sox didn't sign them just to win this year, they signed them to be the cornerstone of their pitching staff for multiple years. Plus, it would be a PR disaster.

As for Beltre, people should factor in that if he's not traded by July 31, he probably isn't going to clear waivers because his contract is so affordable. While it doesn't completely rule out the possibility that he will get traded, it makes it pretty difficult. And unless the Sox lose every game from now until the end of July, I find it very hard to imagine a scenario where a deal gets worked out in the next two weeks.

And Scutaro is staying too. Theo has been burned on too many SS and Scutaro will be an integral part of next year's team.

Probably the only three guys with any chance of moving is Ortiz, VMart, and Papelbon - but it's hard to imagine how the Sox get any kind of value for these three (although obviously GMs can get desparate).

If I had to put money down, while the Sox might be able to make minor moves on the periphery, I'd have to bet that none of the mainstauys are moving this year.

#50 soxfan121


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Posted 17 July 2010 - 09:52 PM

I think there is no chance of selling before 8/31, and even that will be limited to the guys who will clear waivers (Lowell, Okajima, Cash, Ramirez) and who are not coming back after the season ends, anyway.

I think there is a chance that if Daisuke has two good starts and the AAA pitching coach reports that Doubront has incorporated the development plan I'm sure he was given by John Farrell, that the 7/31 deadline could be the end of Daisuke in Boston.

The one thing this team does have is starting pitching depth. Beckett & Buchholz return in a week, and then the team can finally turn over Lester-Beckett-Lackey-Buchholz consistently. Doubront looks like a decent emergency option and Wakefield is happier (and more productive) as a SP. Daisuke would benefit from a change of scenery, as he clearly has major league talent and stuff and he could easily be convinced to go west (San Diego, LA, SF, SEA) and probably convinced to go south (NYM, ATL, PHI, STL). Would any of these large markets (I'm sure Boras wouldn't waive the NTC unless it's to a top-tier market) want an $8M pitcher who might give you $15M worth of performance - or might give you $4M in value?

If the FO sells on 7/31, they might lose the clubhouse. This team, regardless of it's probability statistics, believes they can get healthy and make a run. Trading the #5 starter won't poison the clubhouse if the return is a bullpen arm or another piece of the puzzle for this season. But trading Martinez or Papelbon would be a white flag and that would not end well, given the competitiveness of the core (Pedroia, Beckett, Lester, Youks).