82 replies to this topic

[SoxScout]

	G	AB		AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS		H	2B	3B	HR		BB	SO
April	18	74		.216	.272	.365	.636		16	2	0	3		6	16
May	28	99		.303	.393	.556	.949		30	1	0	8		15	22
June	5	22		.455	.520	.818	1.338		10	2	0	2		2	7

[tonyarmasjr]

Article on soxprospects.com: Defensive Improvements

Lavarnway: 26 G, 1 E, .995 Fldng%, 3 PB, 23 SB, 14 CS, 38% CS
Federowicz: 30 G, 7 E, .970 Fldng%, 0 PB, 27 SB, 12 CS, 31% CS

Just his throwing seems reason enough to be encouraged, at this point. Also, he had 26 PB in 66 G in 2009, 11 PB in 53 G in 2010.

And for good measure:
Lavarnway: 54 G, .278/.357/.493/.850 13 HR, 25 BB, 46 K
Federowicz: 54 G, .287/.345/.411/.756 5 HR, 20 BB, 35 K

Edit: He just hit #14

Edited by tonyarmasjr, 12 June 2011 - 12:13 PM.

[Jeff Van GULLY]

Promoted to Pawtucket, Final AA line:

Lavarnway AA

G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP
99	429	366	60	104	14	0	22	77	0	0	51	89	0.284	0.375	0.503	0.878	184	13

[John DiFool]

Well, so much for adjusting to the new level-he has 5 doubles and 3 homers in just 41 ABs at Pawtucket, .683 slg. My only worry is his K rate, which so far has been a little less than 25% of his ABs (both levels).

[phragle]

http://www.minorleag...-boston-red-sox

Prospect of the Day: Ryan Lavarnway

Jarrod Saltalamacchia currently holds down the catching job with theBoston Red Sox, with the aging Jason Varitek as the primary backup. Knocking on the door is prospect Ryan Lavarnway, currently on a tear with Triple-A Pawtucket.

Lavarnway was drafted by the Red Sox in the sixth round in 2008, out of Yale, where he holds the Ivy League record for career home runs. Scouts respected his power, but weren't sure if he would hit for much of an average in pro ball, and had serious doubts about his ability to remain behind the plate. He answered the doubts about his bat by hitting .285/.367/.540 with 21 homers for Low-A Greenville in 2009, then a combined .288/.393/.489 with 22 homers and 102 RBI between High-A Salem and Double-A Portland in 2010. He returned to Portland to begin '11 and hit a very similar .284/.360/.510 in 55 games, which earned him a promotion to Pawtucket. In 11 games since moving up, he's hit .356/.420/.667 with another three homers.<br style="line-height: 0.75em; "><br style="line-height: 0.75em; ">All told, Lavarnway is a career .284/.375/.509 hitter in 320 minor league games, with no deterioration in his performance as he's moved up the ladder. Indeed, if anything he's improved, easing scout concerns about a long swing by showing power to all fields. He has decent plate discipline and his strikeout rate has actually declined as he's moved up. Although he won't win batting titles in the majors, I expect that he'll carry the power forward. <br style="line-height: 0.75em; "><br style="line-height: 0.75em; ">The serious question has always been defense, and while Lavarnway has spent much of his career as a DH, his glove has improved. His arm is average, but a slow release inhibited his throwing early in his career, while poor footwork and lack of mobility rendered him less than reliable as a defender: he coughed up 26 passed balls in just 66 games behind the plate in 2009. However, he cut that down to 11 in 53 defensive games last year, and this year he's reduced the rate even further to four passed balls and just one error in 32 games behind the plate.

He's caught a respectable 36% of runners trying to steal on him this year. Red Sox farm director Mike Hazen tells me that Lavarnway has made "very good strides behind the plate with a continuously improving feel working with pitchers and calling games." Hazen also praises Lavarnway's continued improvement with receiving and blocking, which clearly shows up in the statistics. <br style="line-height: 0.75em; "><br style="line-height: 0.75em; ">Although Lavarnway will never win gold gloves, if he maintains his current progress he can be at least adequate defensively, while providing considerable power on the offensive side. We should see him in Fenway later this year, and he could take a larger role on the major league roster in 2012.

Edited by phragle, 27 June 2011 - 01:41 PM.

[Shore Thing]

Ryan has gotten off to a pretty good start at AAA:

Lavarnway AAA

G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP
21	91	80	14	27	7	0	5	18	0	0	9	17	0.338	0.418	0.613	1.030	49	4

[terrynever]

Two homers and a double Sunday for Lavarnway in a 4-3 win over Buffalo. He's now hitting .343 in 99 ABs with Pawtucket, with a 1.061 OPS. Has 21 homers this season, counting the 14 he hit in Pawtucket.

Here's the best part. After Sunday's game, he talked about just doing his job in Pawtucket. "Trying to play GM is one of the worst things you can do," he told Paul Kenyon of the ProJo. "My job is to come out here and play baseball for the PawSox."

[SoxScout]

Here are his Davenport translations: http://www.claydaven...19870807A.shtml

[stevman17]

Considering his improved defense, and ridiculous success with the bat, I am going to ask the question I feel we are all alluding to, is 23 year old Ryan Lavarnway our best prospect right now?

I'll go ahead and vote yes. He has a combined line of .303, .377, .554 in AA and AAA. He has a pretty high 20%k, but is absolutely crushing the ball for a catcher. If I am interpreting the Davenport translations correctly, he has an MLB equivalent line of .347 .411 .624 in 101 AAA ABs. Additionally, it looks like he may be coming up fast on 21 year old Yankee prospect Jesus Montero, who is putting up a pretty good .289 .346 .418 line in AAA.

A secondary question, should we consider trading Lavarnway for a SP such as Matt Garza? My brain says no, we will make the playoffs with our current staff, and our top 3 pitchers will be healthy for the playoffs. Now, a trade for a Matt Garza type for Josh Reddick seems like a great idea.

[rodderick]

Considering his improved defense, and ridiculous success with the bat, I am going to ask the question I feel we are all alluding to, is 23 year old Ryan Lavarnway our best prospect right now?

I'll go ahead and vote yes. He has a combined line of .303, .377, .554 in AA and AAA. He has a pretty high 20%k, but is absolutely crushing the ball for a catcher. If I am interpreting the Davenport translations correctly, he has an MLB equivalent line of .347 .411 .624 in 101 AAA ABs. Additionally, it looks like he may be coming up fast on 21 year old Yankee prospect Jesus Montero, who is putting up a pretty good .289 .346 .418 line in AAA.

A secondary question, should we consider trading Lavarnway for a SP such as Matt Garza? My brain says no, we will make the playoffs with our current staff, and our top 3 pitchers will be healthy for the playoffs. Now, a trade for a Matt Garza type for Josh Reddick seems like a great idea.

Josh Reddick is a power bat who plays a very good RF and has shown he can hang in the majors. There is absolutely no way Ryan Lavarnway should be considered a much better propect than he is.

Edited by rodderick, 16 July 2011 - 12:32 PM.

[JakeRae]

Josh Reddick is a power bat who plays a very good RF and has shown he can hang in the majors. There is absolutely no way Ryan Lavarnway should be considered a much better propect than he is.

I have Reddick ranked as a better prospect, but I want to play devil's advocate here. If you do not doubt Lavarnway's ability to stick at catcher, he should probably be considered the best prospect in the system. There is a roughly 20 run difference in value between a catcher and a RF just based on position. If we assume that Lavarnway is a -5 defender and Reddick is a +10 defender then Lavarnway still gets a 5 run advantage. Right now, I'd say the bats are pretty comparable given Reddick's improvements this year, but Lavarnway probably still has a slight edge there and definitely isn't an inferior offensive player. So, basically, even assuming Reddick plays elite defense in right, if Lavarnway stays at catcher as an everyday player, Reddick is going to have to outproduce him offensively in a way that doesn't seem too likely for him to be a more valuable player.

If Lavarnway were viewed as an everyday catcher, he very well might be a top 10 prospect in all of baseball. He's not. But, there's starting to at least be an argument that that perception is wrong.

[John DiFool]

Reddick isn't a "prospect" anymore.

Lavarnway went 4-4 yesterday with a HR and a 2B, and now has a .378/.444/.712 line, with 9 homers in 111 at-bats, and 23 across the two levels. Read all that again, slowly. I hate to speculate about his immediate future with the big club (because I am sure someone will be along very soon now to lecture me about small sample sizes, how "proven" veteran C's like Tek are so valuable, about why we can't "rush" him, gotta postpone his arb years, etc. etc.), but at the very least I'd like to see him called up on August 31, played a ton in Sept. (assuming Sox have at least a WC berth locked up by then) and perhaps get added to the postseason roster (he'd be very useful in a National League park when the opposing LOOGY makes his inevitable appearance against Drew or Crawford).

[5dice]

You can watch most of the Lavarnway HRs on the Pawsox Youtube channel.
Many look like popups off the bat, but just carry and carry. Most of his viewable homers are pulled, but a couple opposite field shots too.

[sodenj5]

Not to hate on Lavarnway at all, but he seems to project as a 1B/DH, which would significantly decrease his value to the team. If he can stick at catcher, he's a huge asset. I'd contend that with the season that he's having offensively, Kalish's mostly lost season, and the plus defense at a valuable position, Will Middlebrooks is making a case for top prospect in the system.

[John DiFool]

Did you read the report above on his D? Only issue I see is his PB rate-he's thrown people out and has only 1 error.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

It's really interesting to think of Lavarnway and Salty as our catching tandem of the future, that being said he still has usefulness as a RH bat off the bench no matter where he plays on the diamond with his skill set. I'd like to see him get some MLB AB"s but at the same time I know he needs to play everyday. I watched the Pawsox yesterday on NESN and he seems like a very competent defensive catcher. It was only one game , but he had good footwork and an accurate arm. He definitely doesn't look completely lost behind the plate, kind of a Kelly Shoppach without the arm.

Edited by Carl Everetts Therapist, 17 July 2011 - 02:46 PM.

[5dice]

Did you read the report above on his D? Only issue I see is his PB rate-he's thrown people out and has only 1 error.

I agree and am encouraged.
I don't know the catching craft very well.
What is innate/can't be taught and what is coachable?
Is there some sort of special offseason catching program with a former defensive stud etc?
Obviously he is making strides, but what is the most you can do to not waste a bat like his?

[someoneanywhere]

At the very least I'd like to see him called up on August 31, played a ton in Sept. (assuming Sox have at least a WC berth locked up by then) and perhaps get added to the postseason roster (he'd be very useful in a National League park when the opposing LOOGY makes his inevitable appearance against Drew or Crawford).

Carl Crawford is a gold-glove defender who can score you a game-winning run by simply getting to first base. If Tito ever pinches him in a playoff game, I will personally go Philly on him.

If Lavarnway continues to suggest that he can stick behind the plate, at some point the Sox are going to send him to Gary Tuck's boot camp. The game-calling stuff he can only learn by playing -- it's not innate, to answer the question upthread. Nor is the skill of slowing the game down, a critical one for catchers because they have to juggle so much at once. Some other things can be taught and in fact Lavarnway has made strides -- footwork, quietness, pitch-blocking. etc. Still, we need to bear in mind that catching major-league stuff is not a matter of sticking your glove out there. There's a whole new level of pitch explosiveness that Lavarnway hasn't seen yet.

[JakeRae]

I am hoping, I think entirely unrealistically, that the Sox clear 40-man room to give him a 4-day stint at DH while Ortiz is suspended. I don't expect it to happen, but if the organization is actually thinking about giving him a look in September, this could be a good opportunity to get him a taste of MLB pitching while minimizing the damage of the Ortiz suspension. If not, it probably just means 4 more days of the corpse of JD Drew hoping for a resurrection.

[Shore Thing]

Ryan is a man among boys at AAA:

Lavarnway AAA

G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP
31	133	118	22	45	11	0	10	28	0	1	13	25	0.381	0.451	0.729	1.180	86	4

[gammoseditor]

Gammons was on the radio this afternoon talking about how much teams like Lavarnway at the trading deadline and said, "I know Seattle liked him much better than Montero."

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Gammons was on the radio this afternoon talking about how much teams like Lavarnway at the trading deadline and said, "I know Seattle liked him much better than Montero."

Probably because they knew they wouldn't have to give up nearly as much as they would for Montero.

[phragle]

Probably because they knew they wouldn't have to give up nearly as much as they would for Montero.

Probably because he is closer to the majors and proved he can crush AAA pitching.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Probably because he is closer to the majors and proved he can crush AAA pitching.

Getting quick help shouldn't be a factor when your team needs a lot of help.

[phragle]

Getting quick help shouldn't be a factor when your team needs a lot of help.

Yet it is.

[Puffy]

Gammons was on the radio this afternoon talking about how much teams like Lavarnway at the trading deadline and said, "I know Seattle liked him much better than Montero."

The other factor could be Seattle's evaluation of their defense - if they believe that Lavarnway might stick as a passable C, whereas Montero may not and will end up at 1B/DH, that would make a big difference.

It's hard to imagine that the presence of Lavarnway knocking on the door won't impact the Ortiz negotiations this winter, as well. He's certainly a decent insurance policy, at a minimum. Will his offense make him stick in the majors or does he end up back in Pawtucket to fine tune those catching skills?

[chrisfont9]

Gammons was on the radio this afternoon talking about how much teams like Lavarnway at the trading deadline and said, "I know Seattle liked him much better than Montero."

If anyone knows hitting prospects, it's the Mariners.

[doctorogres]

Alex Speier has a great podcast interview with Lavarnway about how he's set about learning the craft of catching. Wonderful amount of detail.

[bgo544]

Alex Speier has a great podcast interview with Lavarnway about how he's set about learning the craft of catching. Wonderful amount of detail.

That was terrific, thanks for posting it.

[John DiFool]

Deserving of a bumping after a hot streak brings him up to .308/.399/.483 for the season.

[BosRedSox5]

Can anyone speak to Lavarnway's defense? The knock on him was always that he was going to be a DH type... and now come to find out that Baseball America rated him the best defensive catcher in the International League. What gives? Does he have a legit shot at staying behind the plate? If so, will he be like Mike Piazza Jr. back there or what?

[Zedia]

One point of clarification, it was the IL managers who voted Lavarnway that honor, not BA.

[BosRedSox5]

Ah, I see, it's a survey given by BA to the managers. Anyway, I wonder what, exactly, that says about his defensive improvement.