1187 replies to this topic

[jon abbey]

Heh, so once Shumpert is back and close to himself (fingers crossed), this is what I think NY's best lineups are at this point:

Offense: Amare, Melo, JR Smith, Shumpert, Lin
Defense: Chandler, Camby, Jeffries, Shumpert, Kidd

If you could change the lineup after every single possession, that team could compete with anyone, Dolan needs to petition for 500 additional TOs per game.

[A Bartlett Giamatti]

Heh, so once Shumpert is back and close to himself (fingers crossed), this is what I think NY's best lineups are at this point:

Offense: Amare, Melo, JR Smith, Shumpert, Lin
Defense: Chandler, Camby, Jeffries, Shumpert, Kidd

If you could change the lineup after every single possession, that team could compete with anyone, Dolan needs to petition for 500 additional TOs per game.

You're severely overrating Shumpert if you think he's one of the five best offensive options this team has.

Our best lineups:

Offense--Camby, Amare, Melo, Smith, Lin (though in a half court, grind it out possession I'm putting Kidd on the floor for now).
Defense--Chandler, Camby, Smith, Shumpert and then one of Kidd/Anthony/Jeffries depending on matchups.

[jon abbey]

Amare and Melo are much better offensively at 5/4 respectively. I would give you Amare/Melo/Smith/Lin/Kidd, though, although I love Shumpert's upside on offense if he returns from his injury as the same player. It's a mistake to look at his overall numbers from last year, if you break the season into thirds, he got decidedly better on offense each one.

[A Bartlett Giamatti]

Amare and Melo are much better offensively at 5/4 respectively. I would give you Amare/Melo/Smith/Lin/Kidd, though, although I love Shumpert's upside on offense if he returns from his injury as the same player. It's a mistake to look at his overall numbers from last year, if you break the season into thirds, he got decidedly better on offense each one.

I don't disagree--and my comment was much more about fit then Shumpert. I just prefer better outside shooting on the court with Melo and Amare than Shumpert offers. Also, I think Amare and camby can work better than Tyson because camby isn't a primary screener and hangs around the outside. Having an open middle, as opposed to position, is the primary decider in how effective Amare can be. Camby can also play off Melo and Amare and hit a 15-17' jumper.

[jon abbey]

Knicks trade Jared Jeffries and Dan Gadzuric for Ray Felton and Kurt Thomas. This gives them two members of the 1999 Knicks team that made the Finals now (Camby and Thomas).

[jon abbey]

And they didn't match Fields' offer, so he goes to Toronto, and there are strong rumors they're not going to match on Lin, which isn't as crazy as it sounds, as his style isn't really a great fit for the rest of the team.

Kidd/Felton/Prigioni
JR Smith/TBA/Shumpert (hurt, back in Dec/Jan)
Melo/James White
Amare/Kurt Thomas
Chandler/Camby

[PedroKsBambino]

There's no way Stern is going to allow this, even for the hometown Knicks, right?

http://blog.chron.co...in-offer-sheet/

[Cellar-Door]

Smart move by the knicks if they don't match Lin. Beyond just the money issues of the tax they would have some real competetive disadvantages to signing when the new rules kick in.

[DannyDarwinism]

Somewhere Chris Dudley is checking to make sure his phone is on.

[A Bartlett Giamatti]

PLEASE MAKE IT STOP. They really aren't matching Lin? Really?!?!?!?! Our point guards, in the east, in a win now scenario, total 103 years old? PLEASE MAKE IT STOP.

I have emailed the guy who was selling me season tickets that I wasn't interested if they don't match on Lin. This is purely calculated--I don't love him but I cant possibly Understand finding frugality now.

[Ed Hillel]

Where does it say they aren't matching?

[bosockboy]

Hard to imagine they would after acquiring Felton.

[jon abbey]

Where does it say they aren't matching?

That's the prevalent sentiment on Twitter right now, Marc Berman of the Post specifically wrote that his sources told him that.

Lin's herky-jerky style means that he will always be a major injury risk, and his score first/pass later and meh defense aren't a great fit for the rest of the team as constructed. I'm OK with letting him go, although it's a little odd they didn't sign and trade him to get some assets back (before he signed the offer, obviously, although I guess the offer changed at the last minute, so maybe that's why).

[Jed Zeppelin]

So after all that, assuming they don't match, Linsanity will only have lasted for about 25 games.

[Nick Kaufman]

Time to rename the thread Linsane in the Brain.

[bosockboy]

Feels like Fernando leaving the Dodgers in 1981.

[jon abbey]

NY has until Tuesday at midnight to decide about matching Lin, I think they're going to need most of that time to figure out what they want to do.

[mikeford]

Hey guess who from the Knicks got arrested for DWI last night.





If you guessed Jason Kidd, you are correct!

[radsoxfan]

The Kidd/Felton PG combo is going to be a complete disaster. Both guys were terrible last season. Kidd is old, and Felton is fat. 3 years/20M for that duo....Yikes.

Give me Lin and a random NBDL'er any day (I know the Lin 3rd year offer makes things different, but I would still match if the alternative is what the Knicks decided to go with)

[JCizzle]

Gotta love Melo of all people making a snide comment about Lin getting a "ridiculous" contract. Never change.

[Caspir]

Not to mention his thoughts on their current crop of point guards.

"I mean, what other point guards are we going to get at this point?"

http://www.cbssports...ract-ridiculous

[snowmanny]

Well they spin the comments to say that he os saying that it is the structuring of the contract, with the big third year salary, that is "ridiculous."

If Lin signed a contract that was specifically designed to hurt the Knicks if they matched it I can see why NY would walk away.

It sounds sort of like the Curtis Martin scenario.

[Grin&MartyBarret]

The Kidd/Felton PG combo is going to be a complete disaster. Both guys were terrible last season. Kidd is old, and Felton is fat. 3 years/20M for that duo....Yikes.

Give me Lin and a random NBDL'er any day (I know the Lin 3rd year offer makes things different, but I would still match if the alternative is what the Knicks decided to go with)

Yep. And neither Kidd nor Felton is particularly suited to a Woodson style offense. I can't help but feel like somebody in the Knicks front office is letting Felton's one good half season sway him a bit too much. Sure, Lin's got a small sample size of success too, but at least he's got youth and potential on his side. Felton is what he is at this point, which is a mediocre, overweight, poor-shooting point guard. Lin is better statistically in every relevant category.

Hell of a time for James Dolan to start exercising financial restraint.

[wutang112878]

It was my understanding that Morey is a stats guy. Granted Lin has a super small NBA sample size [not even 2 months of NBA basketball] but the first month his assist to turnover ratio was very bad 8.4 to 5.0. Then the next month the turnovers went down by about 2 a game, but the assists did as well, so the assist to turnover ratio was then 6.3 to 2.8. In addition to that his FG% went down from 47% to 40%, and his 3pt attempt per game actually went down from 2.9 to 2.6

I do think Lin has potential, but just based on stats it seems like from his first month of playing to the next his game changed but he didnt become that much more effective. Just based on the raw stats, I cant understand why he is worth $8M considering the small sample size.

My guess is that Morey has more complex algorithms that somehow account for playing with Melo who is a 'just give me the ball' type of player, but I have to admit I dont get this offer by the Rockets.

[bowiac]

So does anyone have a good idea of what the actual cost of Lin's 3rd season would be for the Knicks? I've seen numbers ranging from $15M to $70M, because of the odd way the luxury tax works for repeat offenders.

[Grin&MartyBarret]

So does anyone have a good idea of what the actual cost of Lin's 3rd season would be for the Knicks? I've seen numbers ranging from $15M to $70M, because of the odd way the luxury tax works for repeat offenders.

They would be paying about $45 million dollars in tax.

It's funny though, the way the media talks about it implies that Jeremy Lin would cost them $45 million in tax, which ignores every other contract on the team.

[wutang112878]

And also ignores how horribly the team has been run considering how close they are to the luxury tax 3 years down the road with a core that really isnt that great.

[Grin&MartyBarret]

It was my understanding that Morey is a stats guy. Granted Lin has a super small NBA sample size [not even 2 months of NBA basketball] but the first month his assist to turnover ratio was very bad 8.4 to 5.0. Then the next month the turnovers went down by about 2 a game, but the assists did as well, so the assist to turnover ratio was then 6.3 to 2.8. In addition to that his FG% went down from 47% to 40%, and his 3pt attempt per game actually went down from 2.9 to 2.6

I do think Lin has potential, but just based on stats it seems like from his first month of playing to the next his game changed but he didnt become that much more effective. Just based on the raw stats, I cant understand why he is worth $8M considering the small sample size.

My guess is that Morey has more complex algorithms that somehow account for playing with Melo who is a 'just give me the ball' type of player, but I have to admit I dont get this offer by the Rockets.

There's a major difference between this offer from the Rockets perspective and this offer from the Knicks perspective, and it's one that seems to be a pretty glaring flaw in the new CBA. The cap hit for this contract is much different for the Rockets than it is for the Knicks. For the Knicks, their cap is charged with the actual annual amounts, which makes the 3rd year very difficult to swallow. For the Rockets, the cap hit is the average of the deal--which is about 8.3 million per year. In other words, the Rockets offered a contract to Lin that pays him about the same amount as Devin Harris, Rodney Stuckey, Mike Conley, and Goran Dragic, where as if the Knicks match, they get two years at 5 million (similar to what Ramon Sessions, JJ Barea, and Luke Ridnour make) and one year at 14 million which is more money than Tony Parker or Rajon Rondo make.

[bowiac]

There's a major difference between this offer from the Rockets perspective and this offer from the Knicks perspective, and it's one that seems to be a pretty glaring flaw in the new CBA. The cap hit for this contract is much different for the Rockets than it is for the Knicks. For the Knicks, their cap is charged with the actual annual amounts, which makes the 3rd year very difficult to swallow. For the Rockets, the cap hit is the average of the deal--which is about 8.3 million per year. In other words, the Rockets offered a contract to Lin that pays him about the same amount as Devin Harris, Rodney Stuckey, Mike Conley, and Goran Dragic, where as if the Knicks match, they get two years at 5 million (similar to what Ramon Sessions, JJ Barea, and Luke Ridnour make) and one year at 14 million which is more money than Tony Parker or Rajon Rondo make.

What's the explanation for the different cap treatments for different teams? Teams matching an offer sheet are subject to different rules than teams giving out offer sheets?

[wutang112878]

Now when we put it in terms of what other PGs make ~$8M, it doesnt look so bad, but I am of the belief that bad contracts [Conley, Dragic, Stuckey] shouldnt justify others.

Anyway, my issue with the offer is that I just havent seen the statistical backing for Lin. I have seen flashes where he looked very impressive, but there were also some silly turnovers. My guess is that Morey thinks those turnovers can go away as Lin matures as a player. Then that 2nd month sticks out at me where the assist to turnover ratio got to that great 2:1 but assists suffered.

Just seems to me as though there are a lot of questions about Lin, so personally I wouldnt offer him a deal at $8M per if I was Morey.

[bowiac]

Deadspin says Lin would cost the Knicks $58M in year 3 btw.

[bsj]

Stephen A smith ripping Lin apart now. Clearly the Knicks have asked him to begn the spin.

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Now when we put it in terms of what other PGs make ~$8M, it doesnt look so bad, but I am of the belief that bad contracts [Conley, Dragic, Stuckey] shouldnt justify others.

Anyway, my issue with the offer is that I just havent seen the statistical backing for Lin. I have seen flashes where he looked very impressive, but there were also some silly turnovers. My guess is that Morey thinks those turnovers can go away as Lin matures as a player. Then that 2nd month sticks out at me where the assist to turnover ratio got to that great 2:1 but assists suffered.

Just seems to me as though there are a lot of questions about Lin, so personally I wouldnt offer him a deal at $8M per if I was Morey.

Lin turned the ball over less frequently last year than Rajon Rondo, Steve Nash, and Ricky Rubio. His ridiculous usage rates led to high raw numbers turnover wise, but in terms of the percentage of his possessions that led to turnovers, he fell in line with other aggressive point guards. And like you said, he was basically a rookie last year and it's likely the turnover numbers will improve.

[bowiac]

The NBA also has a salary floor. As mentioned in the Jeff Green thread, it's just the nature of the NBA that players like Lin get overpaid. That money can't go to rookies, and thanks to the maximum salary, it can't all go to the true superstars. Rockets need to get up to a $45M cap figure somehow, and $8M for Lin seems as good a bet as any.

Edited by bowiac, 16 July 2012 - 02:52 PM.

[collings94]

I find it amazing at the two huge sports phenomenoms from last year, Tebow and Lin, are going to be in different places one season later.

[Ed Hillel]

Stephen A smith ripping Lin apart now. Clearly the Knicks have asked him to begn the spin.

Yeah, what an asshole for...signing the biggest contract he could get!

[wutang112878]

Lin turned the ball over less frequently last year than Rajon Rondo, Steve Nash, and Ricky Rubio. His ridiculous usage rates led to high raw numbers turnover wise, but in terms of the percentage of his possessions that led to turnovers, he fell in line with other aggressive point guards. And like you said, he was basically a rookie last year and it's likely the turnover numbers will improve.

Per 36 minutes according to basketball refrence:
Lin had 4.8 TOs per 36, played 940 minutes total and averaged 8.3 assists per 36 min
Rubio had 3.4, played 1404 minutes, and averaged 8.6 assists
Rondo had 3.6, played 1957 minutes, and averaged 11.4 assists
Nash had 4.2, played 1061 minutes, and averaged 12.2 assists

From a TO per 36 perspective Lin is close to Rubio, Rondo and Nash, he is still the worst. His closest comp is probably Rubio based on their lack of NBA experience, but Rubio had a much lower TO rate and averaged slightly more assists per 36. I dont think the guy is horrible, I just think its somewhat risky to give him a 3yr deal that averages about $8M a season thats all. I would say the same thing if Kahn did that with Rubio

[DannyDarwinism]

Go down a column, G&MB is referring to his usage stats, which attempts to factor in pace.

Assist%- Lin-41.0 (Rubio-37.4, Rondo-52.5, Nash- 53.1)
ToV% (an estimate of TOs per 100 plays)- Lin- 21.4 (Rubio- 22.2, Rondo-22.8, Nash- 27.1)

Per/36 numbers will be skewed upwards for a guy who dominated the ball as much as Lin did.

Edited by DannyDarwinism, 16 July 2012 - 11:00 PM.

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Larry Coon has done a really good job of showing how the Knicks could match Lin, and then in the event that he hasn't panned out as a player, use the stretch provision to avoid paying insane amounts of tax in the 3rd year. Essentially, they could cut him after year 2 and have that 14.8 million dollar cap hit spread out over 3 years at about 4.9 million per, him reduces the luxury tax payment to about 7 million dollars, much more palatable than the 40 some odd million dollar figures that have been quoted all week.

It's also worth noting that matching on Lin doesn't necessarily mean that they'll be tax payers in 2015. Carmelo Anthony has a player option that year, and could very well opt for free agency. Amare and Tyson Chandler will also be an expiring contracts at that point, and could be moved. There's no guarantee the core of Anthony, Stoudemire, and Chandler will still be intact at that point, and I can easily see a scenario where Knicks fans have turned on Carmelo and he looks for a deal elsewhere.

[Grin&MartyBarret]

It's official now, the Knicks will not be matching and Lin will be a Rocket.

https://twitter.com/...320171240308736

James Dolan finds yet another way to make being a fan of this franchise miserable.

[triniSox]

Larry Coon has done a really good job of showing how the Knicks could match Lin, and then in the event that he hasn't panned out as a player, use the stretch provision to avoid paying insane amounts of tax in the 3rd year. Essentially, they could cut him after year 2 and have that 14.8 million dollar cap hit spread out over 3 years at about 4.9 million per, him reduces the luxury tax payment to about 7 million dollars, much more palatable than the 40 some odd million dollar figures that have been quoted all week.

It's also worth noting that matching on Lin doesn't necessarily mean that they'll be tax payers in 2015. Carmelo Anthony has a player option that year, and could very well opt for free agency. Amare and Tyson Chandler will also be an expiring contracts at that point, and could be moved. There's no guarantee the core of Anthony, Stoudemire, and Chandler will still be intact at that point, and I can easily see a scenario where Knicks fans have turned on Carmelo and he looks for a deal elsewhere.

Exactly. It's driving me nuts when the mainstream media is saying Lin is costing the team $30m in year 3. It's everyone's contract that will be costing them when they're over the luxury tax. Moving one of Anthony, Stoudemire or Chandler is also an option as well as just giving Lin away (the likelihood of him being bad enough to not get rid of is small). I think not matching is a big mistake.

[Senorec]

Larry Coon has done a really good job of showing how the Knicks could match Lin, and then in the event that he hasn't panned out as a player, use the stretch provision to avoid paying insane amounts of tax in the 3rd year. Essentially, they could cut him after year 2 and have that 14.8 million dollar cap hit spread out over 3 years at about 4.9 million per, him reduces the luxury tax payment to about 7 million dollars, much more palatable than the 40 some odd million dollar figures that have been quoted all week.

If Coon is right, then I can't understand how the Knicks wouldn't do this. Sure, this could be a basketball decision as much as a $$$'s one, but that doesn't really fly as Lin is an upgrade (or at least more potential) over their current crop of PGs. Then again, maybe they got nervous about the chemistry between Melo and Lin. Regardless, give this team (w/Lin) a couple of years to see if they can make it work. If not, cut him and move on with a less damaging tax figure. Are the Knicks simply this incompetent or is Coon wrong?

[Grin&MartyBarret]

If Coon is right, then I can't understand how the Knicks wouldn't do this. Sure, this could be a basketball decision as much as a $$$'s one, but that doesn't really fly as Lin is an upgrade (or at least more potential) over their current crop of PGs. Then again, maybe they got nervous about the chemistry between Melo and Lin. Regardless, give this team (w/Lin) a couple of years to see if they can make it work. If not, cut him and move on with a less damaging tax figure. Are the Knicks simply this incompetent or is Coon wrong?

Coon is right. The reports are that the Knicks are choosing not to match not for financial reasons, but because James Dolan and Glen Grunwald are angry that Jeremy Lin used Houston to get such a big deal. In other words, James Dolan and Glen Grunwald are mad that Jeremy Lin took part in the free agent process as agreed upon by the owners and the players association last summer.

They just let a valuable asset leave for nothing. Out of spite.

[Senorec]

Coon is right. The reports are that the Knicks are choosing not to match not for financial reasons, but because James Dolan and Glen Grunwald are angry that Jeremy Lin used Houston to get such a big deal. In other words, James Dolan and Glen Grunwald are mad that Jeremy Lin took part in the free agent process as agreed upon by the owners and the players association last summer.

They just let a valuable asset leave for nothing. Out of spite.

You gotta be kidding me. But I still believe that, despite the reports, the Knicks could still sign him. It just makes zero sense. Yes, I know its the Knicks.

[Grin&MartyBarret]

You gotta be kidding me. But I still believe that, despite the reports, the Knicks could still sign him. It just makes zero sense. Yes, I know its the Knicks.

I wish I was.

But unfortunately I'm not. Really, really glad they signed Jason Kidd to mentor Jeremy Lin now. Also, maybe if Mike Woodson hadn't told reporters Lin was the starter and a Knicks source hadn't told Marc Stein that they would "Match any offer up to a billion dollars", Houston wouldn't have reworked the deal to increase the poison pill.

At any point during this process they could have a) used the bird rights they gained through the arbitrator to re-sign him in the same manner they did Steve Novak, or b) agreed to work on a sign and trade with Houston in the same manner that Portland and Minnesota have been for Batum. Instead, the told everybody exactly what their plan was and then got angry when an opposing GM took advantage of that.

Edited by Grin&MartyBarret, 17 July 2012 - 04:41 PM.

[DannyDarwinism]

I'm truly baffled by how the Knicks have played this. Or allowed this to play out, as perhaps a more passive voice is appropriate. Both in terms of on-court and franchise value, I think they're worse off now. And since "optics" is the buzzword du jour in politics, it has me thinking about the optics here. To casual Knicks fans, and even people who typically couldn't care less about the Knicks but were swept up in Linsanity last year, this is going to come off as ownership screwing the pooch yet again, and give them yet another reason to tune them out, especially with the new kids in town.

[ishmael]

I wish I was.

But unfortunately I'm not. Really, really glad they signed Jason Kidd to mentor Jeremy Lin now. Also, maybe if Mike Woodson hadn't told reporters Lin was the starter and a Knicks source hadn't told Marc Stein that they would "Match any offer up to a billion dollars", Houston wouldn't have reworked the deal to increase the poison pill.

At any point during this process they could have a) used the bird rights they gained through the arbitrator to re-sign him in the same manner they did Steve Novak, or b) agreed to work on a sign and trade with Houston in the same manner that Portland and Minnesota have been for Batum. Instead, the told everybody exactly what their plan was and then got angry when an opposing GM took advantage of that.

Yep, this is the complete opposite of the (good) Theo strategy of set a price for a player that you're willing to pay and walk away if it is too high.

If the Knicks had done any of that prep work they could have at least ended up with a future second round pick and some cash from Houston (at a minimum). Instead they're left with nothing but a bad taste in their mouth. NY Knick Basketball!

Edited by ishmael, 17 July 2012 - 07:22 PM.

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

You gotta be kidding me. But I still believe that, despite the reports, the Knicks could still sign him. It just makes zero sense. Yes, I know its the Knicks.

When I read shit like this I am relieved that Dolan didn't win the right to buy the Red Sox. Putting up with the Dentist and Lucky is a small price to pay for everything else.

[BigSoxFan]

The Rockets are huge in China thanks to Yao. Lin really can't lose here. He must be astonished at how awesome his life has become in a matter of months.

[collings94]

NY better hope Shumpert can guard both guard spots at the same time, that backcourt is brutal.