49 replies to this topic

[TheYellowDart5]

For mL pitcher Fabian Williamson (who was acquired from the Mariners for David Aardsma).

Link

[Hendu Candu]

He can play the OF and 2B -- two positions of need. Has never hit in the majors, but good minor league numbers. I always liked him.

[PedroKsBambino]

Certainly an upgrade over the in-house options for the bench for 2B....and better than the other freely-available types we were speculating on in the Laser Show thread.

Presumably, this is consistent with the 6-8 weeks suggested in that thread. Were it longer, I think they'd be shopping more in the Wigginton/Kelly Johnson/xxx aisle.

[czar]

Presumably, this is consistent with the 6-8 weeks suggested in that thread. Were it longer, I think they'd be shopping more in the Wigginton/Kelly Johnson/xxx aisle.

This doesn't imply anything regarding the significance of the injury. The Sox have an immediate (ASAP) need in the infield. They gave up little for a recently DFA'ed guy to fill that need in the extreme short-term.

If they were going to spend actual prospects/talent and go after a "big-ticket" (i.e., Kelly Johnson, etc.) 2B, they wouldn't immediately cave and do less than 24 hours after Pedroia actually got injured regardless of whether DP was out for 2 weeks or 2 years.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Patterson's minor league numbers are phenomenal; never hit much in the bigs thusfar but he's only 27. Seems like a good player to acquire regardless of the injury and the cost is minimal.

Worth noting that the Sox, a team criticized by the local Boston media and others for not having too many African-Americans on their roster in recent years, will now have 4 by my count (assuming Patterson is activated) in Cameron, Hall, McDonald, and Patterson.

[Trautwein's Degree]

Presumably, this is consistent with the 6-8 weeks suggested in that thread. Were it longer, I think they'd be shopping more in the Wigginton/Kelly Johnson/xxx aisle.

Acquiring Patterson in now way precludes Theo from trying to acquire another second baseman. In fact, I'd be surprised if this didn't happen.

From Alex Speier:

Patterson is hitting .204 with a .255 OBP, .408 slugging mark and .662 OPS in 45 games with four homers and six steals for the A's this year. He has a career line of .224/.301/.340/.641. In parts of four big league seasons, he has played 32 of his 134 games at second base.

There was a reason he was had for a 21 year old A ball pitcher now with his third organization.

[SoxFanSince57]

Worth noting that the Sox, a team criticized by the local Boston media and others for not having too many African-Americans on their roster in recent years, will now have 4 by my count (assuming Patterson is activated) in Cameron, Hall, McDonald, and Patterson.

Why is this worth noting? Does anyone here consider the Sox FO and ownership remotely racist?

[Rudy Pemberton]

Why is this worth noting? Does anyone here consider the Sox FO and ownership remotely racist?

I don't think anyone here does, but the idiots in the media who wrote about it may have. It was stupid at the time to write about it; I'm just curious if any of those same writers will now make a big deal about the Sox having African-American players. Somehow, I doubt it.

[Trautwein's Degree]

The A's take on the Pirates tonight in Oakland. You've got to figure Patterson is in uniform tomorrow for the Sox.

[Hendu Candu]

335 at bats over four seasons ... he's never gotten the full-time chance his numbers would seem to deserve. He's got better plate discipline than brother Corey.

[absintheofmalaise]

Patterson's minor league numbers are phenomenal; never hit much in the bigs thusfar but he's only 27. Seems like a good player to acquire regardless of the injury and the cost is minimal.

Worth noting that the Sox, a team criticized by the local Boston media and others for not having too many African-Americans on their roster in recent years, will now have 4 by my count (assuming Patterson is activated) in Cameron, Hall, McDonald, and Patterson.

Oh please Rudy. That's just typical media bullshit. A couple of years ago the Braves didn't have a single black player on the team. Nobody made a stunk about that. Now, if you want to bring up something truly interesting. Patterson will be the 4th player from Georgia if he's on the 25 man.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Oh please Rudy. That's just typical media bullshit. A couple of years ago the Braves didn't have a single black player on the team. Nobody made a stunk about that. Now, if you want to bring up something truly interesting. Patterson will be the 4th player from Georgia if he's on the 25 man.

I think I'm being misinterpreted here. I agree that the articles, written by the media, about how the Sox had relatively few or no black ballplayers (and there were several such articles in the past few years) were bullshit. The idiots who wrote them were trying to stir the pot and start shit. All I'm saying is that the writers who wrote that crap in the past, noting how the Sox didn't have any or many AA players and suggesting that it meant something (it didn't), should now note that they have several. I'm guessing that the CHB's of the world will not.

[PedroKsBambino]

Acquiring Patterson in now way precludes Theo from trying to acquire another second baseman. In fact, I'd be surprised if this didn't happen.

Nor was it suggested it did. However, this move just is consistent with having a short-term need and expecting that you won't need a big short-term pickup, seems to me. If you were expecting to chase Kelly Johnson, I doubt you'd worry about the one week of Angel Sanchez and thus wouldn't immediately move for Patterson. Granted, that's a low cost but this org has been pretty consistent about trying to maintain assets, too.

I think they believe in Hall more than is being suggested but I guess we'll find out. The other part of a Kelly Johnson/Wigginton type pickup is you need a picture of how the roster looks in August, really, when Pedroia comes back.

They no doubt will look around at Iwamura types, but again...that is consistent with the injury being a 6-8 week thing, too.

Edited by PedroKsBambino, 26 June 2010 - 07:57 PM.

[Trautwein's Degree]

From the 2010 Baseball Prospectus Annual:

-Scout says "half the tools, but twice the ballplayer" of Corey Patterson;
-Can play all 3 outfield positions and pass at second base;
-An above average runner who knows how to work the count; and
-The A's tried to develop him into their version of Chone Figgins and they may have hit paydirt.

Hopefully Theo has hit some pay dirt. In the very least, he's probably an upgrade over Bill Hall.

[Foulkey Reese]

Hopefully Theo has hit some pay dirt. In the very least, he's probably an upgrade over Bill Hall.

Hall has 76 points of OBP on Patterson this season.

[absintheofmalaise]

I think I'm being misinterpreted here. I agree that the articles, written by the media, about how the Sox had relatively few or no black ballplayers (and there were several such articles in the past few years) were bullshit. The idiots who wrote them were trying to stir the pot and start shit. All I'm saying is that the writers who wrote that crap in the past, noting how the Sox didn't have any or many AA players and suggesting that it meant something (it didn't), should now note that they have several. I'm guessing that the CHB's of the world will not.

Next time, if you want your words to be interpreted the way you meant them to be, write it out like you did here. I was just coming back in here to add how ironic it is for some members of the media up there to bring up race when they use little pet names when they talk about players like Manny, Pedro etc.

[Quintanariffic]

Next time, if you want your words to be interpreted the way you meant them to be, write it out like you did here. I was just coming back in here to add how ironic it is for some members of the media up there to bring up race when they use little pet names when they talk about players like Manny, Pedro etc.

Actually, it was pretty clear what Rudy meant as soon as he clarified the first time, yet you still found it necessary to jump all over him. I guess you "win", or something.

[absintheofmalaise]

Actually, it was pretty clear what Rudy meant as soon as he clarified the first time, yet you still found it necessary to jump all over him. I guess you "win", or something.

I was writing up my post when he posted his clarification so I didn't see it before I hit reply. Do I have to give back the trophy now?

[Quintanariffic]

I was writing up my post when he posted his clarification so I didn't see it before I hit reply. Do I have to give back the trophy now?

Since you already drank out of it, it's yours.

[Trautwein's Degree]

Hall has 76 points of OBP on Patterson this season.

Given his minor league numbers and the opportunity for regular playing time Patterson should out produce Hall the rest of the way.

[mahky bellhorn]

Maybe Patterson has some Darnell McDonald-level magic in him, but I do not believe Billy Beane has a habit of giving away hidden gems on the cheap.

Sounds like the best AAAA guy available to me, which is probably the smartest move for a 6-8 week stopgap.

[AZBlue]

This move to acquire Patterson also makes the Sox look less desperate if they are shopping for another middle infielder. From the way that Marco has been playing, he appears to need some days pff to deal with the "dead muscle" in his chest that is really affecting his defense. With Lowrie still recovering, the trade route is the only solution for lack of depth at SS and 2B for the next two months (assuming that Pedroia will be out 6-8 weeks).

[bosockboy]

Seems like a LH Damian Jackson. I imagine he starts tomorrow against Lincecum.

[TheYellowDart5]

They no doubt will look around at Iwamura types, but again...that is consistent with the injury being a 6-8 week thing, too.

Seeing as how Iwamura was rocking a .182/.292/.267 line before being released by the Pirates, I would argue that Patterson is an Iwamura-type, aka a replacement-level Major Leaguer able to fill a place for a short period of time.

There's not much better out there, sadly. The Sox are going to have to sink or swim with another hole in the lineup for the time being.

[bosockboy]

Seeing as how Iwamura was rocking a .182/.292/.267 line before being released by the Pirates, I would argue that Patterson is an Iwamura-type, aka a replacement-level Major Leaguer able to fill a place for a short period of time.

There's not much better out there, sadly. The Sox are going to have to sink or swim with another hole in the lineup for the time being.

Yep; they are going to be in a lot of tight games, so some bullpen help would also help stem the tide. I think MDC is in for a long nosedive based on his last few outings, and as we know Bard is holding the pen together and is being brutally overworked.

Victor, Youk, Ortiz, Beltre and (hopefully) Drew are going to have to get it done at the plate.

[URI]

Maybe Patterson has some Darnell McDonald-level magic in him, but I do not believe Billy Beane has a habit of giving away hidden gems on the cheap.

Sounds like the best AAAA guy available to me, which is probably the smartest move for a 6-8 week stopgap.

I know...you'd never think that Beane gave away Nelson Cruz, or Andre Either, or Carlos Pena, or Ryan Ludwick, or Ted Lilly for not a lot.

[rembrat]

Billy Beane is too busy with soccer now-a-days. But to be fair, I think the entire AL gave away Carlos Pena at one point.

[DanoooME]

From the 2010 Baseball Prospectus Annual:

-Scout says "half the tools, but twice the ballplayer" of Corey Patterson;
-Can play all 3 outfield positions and pass at second base;
-An above average runner who knows how to work the count; and
-The A's tried to develop him into their version of Chone Figgins and they may have hit paydirt.

Hopefully Theo has hit some pay dirt. In the very least, he's probably an upgrade over Bill Hall.

Since he was designated for assignment 4 days ago, I doubt he's an upgrade at all. He's cheap for a reason and I'm sure Beane or one of his minions is smiling because they got SOMETHING for him.

[BosRedSox5]

Man, with Ryan Shealy and Eric Patterson coming to town I would be excited if I was a Paw Sox fan!

But I'm not.

He's been really good in AAA: .309/.369/.487/.856 but I would think the absolute most we could expect is a Nava like flukey surge for a few weeks. We are totally effed without Pedroia for a month and a half. There's just not a lot of options out there for second basemen to begin with and there's absolutely no way to replace gold glove quality defense and an MVP bat at 2B.

Edited by BosRedSox5, 27 June 2010 - 07:05 AM.

[Al Zarilla]

Man, with Ryan Shealy and Eric Patterson coming to town I would be excited if I was a Paw Sox fan!

But I'm not.

He's been really good in AAA: .309/.369/.487/.856 but I would think the absolute most we could expect is a Nava like flukey surge for a few weeks. We are totally effed without Pedroia for a week and a half. There's just not a lot of options out there for second basemen to begin with and there's absolutely no way to replace gold glove quality defense and an MVP bat at 2B.

Do you mean a month and a half? Wish it was a week and a half.

[JakeRae]

His very good AAA numbers aren't as good as they look at first blush once the fact that he compiled them in the PCL is adjusted for. That's not to say they aren't good. They are still very good.

The fact that he is a left handed hitter makes him a good option to platoon with Hall at 2nd. There should probably be some degree of playing the hot hand between him, Nava, and Hall going forward but I'd expect this makes Nava pretty much an everyday player until Ellsbury gets back. Hall will continue to start against any and all lefties and Patterson will get the majority of the starts at 2b against righties. He is definitely a good short term option as he has significant upside and his floor is still hanging around replacement level.

He did look like he was finally coming into his own in 2009 before struggling horribly at the plate this year, so it isn't an insane gamble that he might be able to break out and be a productive fill in until Pedroia can get back or Lowrie can get healthy. I like the move, given the circumstances. I'd say that our chances of catching the Yankees have taken a serious hit, perhaps one that cannot be overcome. But, I am still optimistic about our chances to keep pace with Tampa until we can field a healthy roster again and, ideally, pull away from them down the stretch.

[Eric Van]

Since he was designated for assignment 4 days ago, I doubt he's an upgrade at all. He's cheap for a reason and I'm sure Beane or one of his minions is smiling because they got SOMETHING for him.

These guys who have been very good in AAA but no good in MLB are lottery (scratch) tickets, and Theo and Beane both have an M.O. of collecting more than they can actually fit on the roster. Patterson has a chance to be good just as Kevin Frandsen did before we got him and after we let him go.

Darnell McDonald cost less and is currently 6th in the AL among CF in WPA, ahead of, among many others, Curtis Granderson (who leads him in wOBA by just .003).

[Eric Van]

Patterson as an Oakland A, 2009-2010:

As a starter when he played the game before:

.287 / .365 / .463 (156 PA)

As a reserve or starting after not playing:

.148 / .188 / .262 (64 PA)

Edit: to cut mahky bellhorn some slack in the argument below, this is just a standard hard definition of "regular" vs. "bench player." The former split, in this case, for the most part does not involve playing 3 games and then sitting, and the latter split does not constitute him playing every other day. It's playing every day, game after game (see the further breakdown below), vs. a couple of times a week.

This year, he was .250 / .297 / .483 in 64 PA as a regular. That's not good enough to hold down a LF job but given the overall 2009-2010 numbers he would never have lost a job as a 2B with that line in that small a sample.

TotalZone had him +9 per 150 at 2B over his last 2 ml seasons, +2 over the last 3 years, +8 over the last 4.

Put him right into a platoon with Hall and see how he does.

Edit: Further breakdown:

.311 / .392 / .533 in 102 PA in two stretches from 9/21/09 - 10/4/09 and 4/25/10 to 5/11/10
.239 / .315 / .326 in 54 PA in other scattered games as a starter when he had played the game before*
.148 / .188 / .262 in 64 PA as a reserve or starting for the first time after not playing the game before

*One set where he started four games in a row, two where he started two in a row after playing as a sub, 3 games where he started twice in a row, and 4 games where he started after playing as a sub. In all of these splits the first game in a stretch of consecutive ones is not regarded as regular play.

Yes, there's some selection bias in that as long as he hit, they kept him in the lineup (that's why the numbers are better than his MLEs), but that's hardly the whole story ... in '09 the season ended with him hot, while this year he had a great first four games and then lost his job because of a 10 game slump. But he clearly likes to play every day and is not yet a good twice-a-week guy.

Edited by Eric Van, 27 June 2010 - 03:00 AM.

[mahky bellhorn]

I know...you'd never think that Beane gave away Nelson Cruz, or Andre Either, or Carlos Pena, or Ryan Ludwick, or Ted Lilly for not a lot.

Yeah, I tried to phrase it softly because I didn't feel like checking up on my assumption. Some of those circumstances were kinda different, i.e. Ethier was technically still a prospect and he got a decent pro in Milton Bradley, and Ludwick went through like 75 other teams before hooking in St. Louis. My basic point was that Beane is aware of Patterson's minor league stats and their value, but I'm glad you tossed out some examples because I was actually getting a bit curious as I typed out my post.

Edit: Eric makes a decent point about Beane accumulating more of these types than he can fit on the ML roster. I'm assuming this is true, but I am again too lazy to check up on it.

Edited by mahky bellhorn, 27 June 2010 - 01:25 AM.

[mahky bellhorn]

Patterson as an Oakland A, 2009-2010:

As a starter when he played the game before:

.287 / .365 / .463 (156 PA)

As a reserve or starting after not playing:

.148 / .188 / .262 (64 PA)

Hooray for arbitrary splits of small samples!

[Eric Van]

Hooray for arbitrary splits of small samples!

What the fuck is arbitrary about the difference between playing every day and playing every third or fourth day?

Most guys play much better every day than they do coming off the bench. Numbers coming off the bench are often absolutely worthless as predictors for how a guy will do as a regular. The first thing I do when evaluating any player who has not been a full-timer in MLB (especially a young player who has of course been playing full time in the minors) is look at exactly that split with the thought that the bench numbers are going to be tossed as utterly irrelevant to the question of whether you want him as a regular.

The bottom line is that Patterson's MLE's are decent and he has actually outperformed them when he's played as an MLB regular. You want to combine his 2009 in AAA with the 156 PA as an MLB regular and that's plenty of reason to think he can play every day.

There is, in fact, no evidence that he can't play every day.

[TFisNEXT]

Hooray for arbitrary splits of small samples!

Or you could actually look at his minor league numbers and see he was a good hitter. Maybe he needs to play every day.

Not saying he will be great for us since he has obviously struggled in a limited role...but you can take the snarky comment and shove it up your azz mostly because you are taking an unnecessary shot at EV just for the sake for doing it when he provided something to look at whether its significant or not. More value than your post.

For the record, I dont care much for the Patterson signing...but he might be able to give something...he showed in the minors he can hit...and he can play 2nd base....maybe he will finally hit a bit in this stint.

[mahky bellhorn]

So he's an above average pro when he plays every day, but an off day literally cuts his OBP and SLG in half? Even if I take your word that players tend to perform better when playing every day, you're still cherry picking a 220 PA sample, and it can't be taken as indicative of anything.

[Eric Van]

Edit: Eric makes a decent point about Beane accumulating more of these types than he can fit on the ML roster. I'm assuming this is true, but I am again too lazy to check up on it.

Check up on it? Just before Opening Day they sent their backup C (Landon Powell) to AAA and DFA'd Jack Cust so that they could keep them all on the roster. Those were widely discussed as the two biggest surprises among the final roster cuts in all of MLB. Eventually they brought them both back and cut Patterson and Jake Fox to make room.

[mahky bellhorn]

Check up on it? Just before Opening Day they sent their backup C (Landon Powell) to AAA and DFA'd Jack Cust so that they could keep them all on the roster. Those were widely discussed as the two biggest surprises among the final roster cuts in all of MLB. Eventually they brought them both back and cut Patterson and Jake Fox to make room.

Don't take it personally, I just don't have a very intimate knowledge of other teams' roster situations and I already improperly assumed once in the thread.

[Eric Van]

So he's an above average pro when he plays every day, but an off day literally cuts his OBP and SLG in half? Even if I take your word that players tend to perform better when playing every day, you're still cherry picking a 220 PA sample, and it can't be taken as indicative of anything.

Imagine that we'd had this exchange:

Vs. RHP: .287 / .365 / .463 (156 PA)

Vs. LHP: .148 / .188 / .262 (64 PA)

You: Hooray for arbitrary splits of small samples!

Me: What the fuck is arbitrary about a platoon split?

You: [I think you can do the translation.]

You want to argue that there is no difference athletically between playing every day and playing twice a week, be my guest.

Yes, the 156 MLB PA are a SSS and don't argue that he's better than his MLEs. But what part of "there is no evidence that he can't play everyday don't you get?

(And, yes, the splits for many players are dramatic. Manny Ramirez literally gets better every single day he plays without an off day.)

[BosRedSox5]

Do you mean a month and a half? Wish it was a week and a half.

Ha! I'll be damned if I didn't read that three times before I hit "add reply" and still got it wrong. I must just be too distraught over losing my favorite player a day after seeing him put on a laser show live.

[Harry Agganis]

Wasn't he DFA'd to get Crisp back in the A's lineup? As far as I'm concerned a good pickup given the current situation.

[Plympton91]

I think they believe in Hall more than is being suggested but I guess we'll find out.

I agree. Hall has improved every month this year with the Red Sox, posting a 600 OPS in April, 700 in May and 800 in June. He's a former 35 HR guy and giving him enough rope to see if his June numbers can be sustained seems to me the best option for the team right now. Hall has also hit righthanders better than lefties so far in 2010, so a platoon may not be the best option.

Patterson is a nice utility player who can take over Hall's role of filling in for whoever gets injured today.

[Eric Van]

Geeze, what's a guy need to do to get his thread bumped?

It just occurred to me tonight that Patterson has a very real chance to stick on the MLB roster once everyone is healthy, because both Nava and Hermida can be optioned to Pawtucket (Hermida would need to clear optional assignment waivers, but that's very likely). That way, you maximize organizational depth, and until Hermida starts to hit as hoped it's not obvious that he's the better overall 4th OF; and Patterson's ability to play CF and 2B adds to the overall roster flexibility. You'd have to be really convinced that Hermida was going to outplay Patterson as a LF the rest of the way before you DFA'd Patterson to make room for him as opposed to optioning Hermida and thus keeping them both.

[Soxfan in Fla]

Geeze, what's a guy need to do to get his thread bumped?

It just occurred to me tonight that Patterson has a very real chance to stick on the MLB roster once everyone is healthy, because both Nava and Hermida can be optioned to Pawtucket (Hermida would need to clear optional assignment waivers, but that's very likely). That way, you maximize organizational depth, and until Hermida starts to hit as hoped it's not obvious that he's the better overall 4th OF; and Patterson's ability to play CF and 2B adds to the overall roster flexibility. You'd have to be really convinced that Hermida was going to outplay Patterson as a LF the rest of the way before you DFA'd Patterson to make room for him as opposed to optioning Hermida and thus keeping them both.

He's got some serious wheels too. Flew around the bases on the triple to left center in the 9th. Watching in person I was impressed how quickly he went home to 3rd on that. Could be handy as a pinch runner down the road as well if he is decent at stealing bases. Certainly has the speed. Nava, Hall nor Hermida can fly like that.

[bosox79]

Hes 20/22 in SB for his MLB career. In the minors, he was 175/217, or 81%.

[The Gray Eagle]

He should've stolen home in the 9th, he would've had a better shot at that than Montero getting on base. (Especially when we pinch-ran Cameron, I was surprised we didn't see a stolen base/rundown attempt from him to let Patterson try to score. Montero had about a 10% chance of getting on base there.)

It sucks that we've already gotten more big hits from Patterson against Tampa than we have any right to expect, but still lost both games.

[absintheofmalaise]

He should've stolen home in the 9th, he would've had a better shot at that than Montero getting on base. (Especially when we pinch-ran Cameron, I was surprised we didn't see a stolen base/rundown attempt from him to let Patterson try to score. Montero had about a 10% chance of getting on base there.)

It sucks that we've already gotten more big hits from Patterson against Tampa than we have any right to expect, but still lost both games.

I doubt the Rays would have even tried to throw out Cameron or get into a run down with him with Patterson on 3B and Romero up. Too many things that can go wrong which would have allowed him to score the tying run.

Here's an article from 2009 in THT about stealing home. Out of the 25 attempts from 2000-2009, 15 were successful. 13 attempts came against LH pitchers. 9 were successful. Three of those were against Pettitte. Out of the 12 against RH pitchers, 6 were successful. Omar Vizquel was 3-5 in stealing home.

In a number of the attempts he recounts in the article the pitchers were going from the wind up. None of the ones he talks about were in the 9th.

With Soriano staring right at Patterson from the stretch, I'd think the odds of success were a bit lower than 50%. It would have been a ballsy move either way.

[The Gray Eagle]

Oh yeah, the odds of a straight steal of home there would be very low, like maybe 10%, and that's counting the slim chance that the catcher panics and misses the ball.

Of course, the odds of Hello Niuman getting on base there were very low too. The Rays had one of their many mound conferences before he came up, with Maddon no doubt saying "this clown can't can't hit at all, do NOT walk him under any circumstances."

I was glad to find out that Cameron was running on the last pitch-- the Rays probably would not have thrown down (probably also mentioned in their conference) but that puts the go-ahead run in scoring position with basically no risk, so you've got to take it. If a miracle happens and Romero gets a bloop hit, you need to make sure you get both runs and take the lead.

I don't know why Cameron waited till the third pitch to run, he should have gone right away. And then fallen down halfway to second to try to draw a throw, like the old little league play. Why not, we had a little league hitter at the plate.

Back to Patterson, it's interesting that he's got twice as many HRs on the season as Lowell and Cameron combined. He's also sporting a 1.444 OPS in Tropicana in 18 PA's there this year, but we're still 0-2 there with him on our team.