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L'affaire Jacoby


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#1 HriniakPosterChild

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Posted 26 June 2010 - 06:43 PM

From the Globe:
QUOTE
There was a minor update on Jacoby Ellsbury (broken ribs) yesterday, though the Sox didn't have the final word from the doctors. Francona said the center fielder is still not ready for baseball activities, though he has improved. "So do we keep him out there? Does he come back to Boston?" Francona said. "We don't know yet, and all the votes aren't tabulated."


Edits:
Changed thread title from "Ellsbury in Limbo" -7/7/2010
Changed thread title from "Ellsbury Progressing" --7/10/2010

Edited by HriniakPosterChild, 10 July 2010 - 05:11 PM.


#2 86spike


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Posted 26 June 2010 - 11:11 PM

Now that the lineup is even more decimated by injury, our little teen idol really needs to get himself on the field.

No diving on defense, no head first slides on the bases. But get in the game.

Reading Tito's effusive quote about Pedroia coming in on crutches asking who's playing second and then comparing it to the shrug that is this comment about Jacoby really offers some contrast.

Suck it up, kid. Your team needs your bat in the lineup.


#3 wutang112878


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Posted 26 June 2010 - 11:27 PM

QUOTE (86spike @ Jun 27 2010, 12:11 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Now that the lineup is even more decimated by injury, our little teen idol really needs to get himself on the field.


I would love to see him back in the lineup as well, but until he is physically cleared we need to be have patience. Titos quote indicates he is very close, but for whatever reason [mental/physical/toughness] he cant contribute until he clears the hurdle.

#4 Pumpsie


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Posted 26 June 2010 - 11:32 PM

Again, everyone's injury is different. We're talking about 4 cracked ribs plus one here.

Once again, Tito is handling this with the aplomb of a drunken elephant in a china shop. Zip it, Tito.

The trade for Patterson adds an interesting wrinkle to the situation, though. This kid has a similar tool set to Ellsbury, although he's about 2 years younger. If he shows well, that may make trading Ellsbury in the offseason more of a possibility.

#5 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 06:56 AM

QUOTE (86spike @ Jun 27 2010, 12:11 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Now that the lineup is even more decimated by injury, our little teen idol really needs to get himself on the field.

No diving on defense, no head first slides on the bases. But get in the game.

Reading Tito's effusive quote about Pedroia coming in on crutches asking who's playing second and then comparing it to the shrug that is this comment about Jacoby really offers some contrast.

Suck it up, kid. Your team needs your bat in the lineup.

Who's to say that he'll be able to hit at all if he comes back from injury now? The assumptions being made here are insane. And the language gets increasingly nastier: if Jacoby looked like, say, Don Mossi would he still be accused of jaking it?

He'll come back when he's able to contribute to the major league club. I'm no doctor, but somehow I think assuming that four broken ribs might affect one's hitting isn't too far-fetched at all. And if his hitting is still affected, what use is he?

#6 86spike


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 07:29 AM

It has been 35 days since Ellsbury's Philly dive that created the second problem. 5 weeks should be enough time to resume baseball activities.

#7 sodenj5

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 07:36 AM

QUOTE (86spike @ Jun 27 2010, 08:29 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
It has been 35 days since Ellsbury's Philly dive that created the second problem. 5 weeks should be enough time to resume baseball activities.


And if it isn't? If his ribs aren't 100%, and he re-fractures them again, he's basically lost for the season. What's the sense in rushing him back now? Last I checked, Pedroia plays 2B, not OF. What changed overnight to the point that we need Ellsbury back in the lineup tomorrow? Obviously his presence back at the top of the lineup would be welcomed, but what are the odds that he hits when he comes back? He's basically going to have to go through spring training and come back and face pitchers in mid-season form. Literally.

#8 TheoShmeo


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 07:41 AM

The truth is that none of us arm chair trainers have any idea whether Ellsbury is in a position to resume baseball activities. We have extremely limited information and even less ability to evaluate the bits that we do have.

The fact that Ellsbury has made a few negative comments about the Sox medical staff and treatment of his injury, combined with his choice of Scott F'ing Boras as his agent, probably contributes to the hostility here. But it doesn't change the fact that comments about Ellsbury's desire or when he should be back have absolutely no foundation. Imagine how we'd view it if people made judgments about anything material in our lives based on just snippets of information in areas that require advanced degrees.


#9 86spike


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 07:57 AM

Things with the team have changed and they need every bat possible in the lineup. We now have 4 out of 9 spots staffed by injured guys (Cameron) or filler (Nava, Macdonald, Hall/2Bman). Hopefully Drew will be back soon, but we're looking at 2 months without our allstar #2 hitter. This is a gaping hole. Hopefully Ellsbury will be Back soon too.

I hope Ellsbury wants to do everything he can to be one of those bats. He very well might be doing everything possible while in AZ. Francona didn't exactly paint a picture of a guy chomping at the bit to rejoin his teammates, though.

There's a huge need for bats. I really hope that Ellsbury can rise to the challenge. I hope the team asks him to meet that challenge.

#10 OCD SS


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 08:18 AM

QUOTE (86spike @ Jun 27 2010, 08:29 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
It has been 35 days since Ellsbury's Philly dive that created the second problem. 5 weeks should be enough time to resume baseball activities.


Is that your informed medical opinion?

QUOTE (86spike @ Jun 27 2010, 08:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
There's a huge need for bats. I really hope that Ellsbury can rise to the challenge. I hope the team asks him to meet that challenge.


I hope the team doesn't rush him back into the lineup before he's ready, causing the offense more harm than good and possibly reaggravating his injuries.

#11 Pearl Wilson


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 08:24 AM

Seems to me that part of what's happening is that Ellsbury has not cleared the team to release any medical information, as is his right. It's strange though that neither camp has found some little positive thing - some sweet little crumb to feed to the hungry fans about this guy. Tito's quote "...though he has improved" is not cutting it.

If he has nothing positive to share, then I wish Tito in particular would take a page out of Jim Leyland's book and just say the guy is on the DL where he can't help my team so there is nothing for me to discuss. Next question.

Second wish: a report out of API by someone not a part of the Red Sox organization.

#12 86spike


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 08:30 AM

QUOTE (OCD SS @ Jun 27 2010, 09:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Is that your informed medical opinion?


well, his doctors and the doctors here on SOSH seemed to think 4-5 weeks would suffice when the injury was discovered.

QUOTE
I hope the team doesn't rush him back into the lineup before he's ready, causing the offense more harm than good and possibly reaggravating his injuries.


sometimes a pro ballplayer needs to play at less than 100%.

The team is in dire need of bats.

The situation changed.




#13 Pumpsie


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 08:50 AM

QUOTE (86spike @ Jun 27 2010, 09:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
well, his doctors and the doctors here on SOSH seemed to think 4-5 weeks would suffice when the injury was discovered.

sometimes a pro ballplayer needs to play at less than 100%.

The team is in dire need of bats.

The situation changed.


Come on, spike, this is all based on wild conjecture. Might as well hire a Russian "remote viewer" to find out what's really going on. And while you're at it, have him check in on Josh Beckett who's dropped completely out of sight since his mysterious injury with no comments from Mr. Tito. Perhaps Beckett is at a spa losing excess weight in order to relieve the strain on his back.



#14 Plympton91


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 08:52 AM

QUOTE (86spike @ Jun 27 2010, 09:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
well, his doctors and the doctors here on SOSH seemed to think 4-5 weeks would suffice when the injury was discovered.

sometimes a pro ballplayer needs to play at less than 100%.

The team is in dire need of bats.

The situation changed.


What is the evidence that Ellsbury, particularly injured Ellsbury, is a better bat than Daniel Nava, who's done nothing but light up every level of baseball he's played?

To me, the biggest need for Ellsbury is in CF, not the lineup, and I don't want him unless he's 100 percent, because even at 100 percent, he's sometimes a borderline major league hitter.

#15 Pearl Wilson


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 09:03 AM

QUOTE (Pumpsie @ Jun 27 2010, 09:50 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Come on, spike, this is all based on wild conjecture. Might as well hire a Russian "remote viewer" to find out what's really going on. And while you're at it, have him check in on Josh Beckett who's dropped completely out of sight since his mysterious injury with no comments from Mr. Tito. Perhaps Beckett is at a spa losing excess weight in order to relieve the strain on his back.


QUOTE
Beckett throws well
Josh Beckett, who has been on the disabled list since May 19, threw 70 pitches in the bullpen and said he felt fine.

Beckett threw 45 pitches, matching his usual pregame warmup. Then he sat down, got up and threw eight pitches as though he were getting ready before an inning. Then 17 pitches followed.

“I felt great,’’ Beckett said. “No pain at all. I was able to throw all my pitches. My arm strength was actually pretty good.’’

The next step for Beckett will be to face hitters Thursday. The Sox are off that day, but Beckett will throw at Fenway Park, likely to players from the independent league Brockton Rox.

globe

We've had regular updates on Beckett. Perhaps it's because Ells is not with the team, perhaps not but these situations are not being handled the same at all.

#16 seantoo


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 09:58 AM

QUOTE (Plympton91 @ Jun 27 2010, 09:52 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
What is the evidence that Ellsbury, particularly injured Ellsbury, is a better bat than Daniel Nava, who's done nothing but light up every level of baseball he's played?

To me, the biggest need for Ellsbury is in CF, not the lineup, and I don't want him unless he's 100 percent, because even at 100 percent, he's sometimes a borderline major league hitter.


That is just flat out wrong. In his last two full seasons he has batted .280 and .301. In the second half of 2009 he batted .306. His OBP has been .336 and .355 the past two full seasons and it was .363 the second half of 2009 which shows a progression from slightly above average to begin with to above average. He is a leadoff hitter so don't put to much stock in his OPS+ which is overly SLG% dependent. That and his ability to steal alot of bases at a high rate are not accounted for either. Also check out his monthly splits for last year and so how consistent he was, http://www.baseball-.../...ar=2009&t=b.
Fangraphs has his batting at 11.8 in 2009, Park Adjusted Runs Above Average based on wOBA. He's also been about 7 wins above replacement for 2008 & 2009.

It seems like several people are down on him due to injuries and are not giving him a fair shake.

Edited by seantoo, 27 June 2010 - 10:08 AM.


#17 sodenj5

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 09:59 AM

QUOTE (86spike @ Jun 27 2010, 09:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
well, his doctors and the doctors here on SOSH seemed to think 4-5 weeks would suffice when the injury was discovered.


You mean the doctors that told him it was ok to play before he was 100% before he re-injured himself? Those are the doctors you're referencing? Also, this isn't The Show. You don't just plug Ellsbury back into the leadoff spot and he starts hitting and stealing bases. He would be just another body right now.

#18 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 10:02 AM

It's embarrassing to see how much criticism Ellsbury is getting, especially when you realize it's from the same people who like to brag about how they never booed guys like Foulke and Bellhorn. How is "teen idol" relevant as a descriptor of Ellsbury? Why in the world would Ellsbury not want to play baseball? Why should he suck it up? I mean, are we asking for Beckett, Lowrie, Drew, Tazawa or whoever else to suck it up too?

You know what happens when guys who are hurt try to play hurt? They end up getting hurt again; it's already happened once when the team rushed Ellsbury back. You can't just tell a guy to guy, esp. one like Ellsbury whose game relies on speed and athleticism, to go out there and give it 75%.

I can't understand why the team is being so critical and cryptic of the Ellsbury situation, especially compared to what's going with Beckett. I guess it fits with the perceptions that Ellsbury is a pretty boy and Beckett is a warrior. Of course, there are very few facts to back up either of these perceptions. The team has handled this poorly, but there's really no reason for fans to add fuel to the fire.

Seems like there's a lack of factual evidence here to form an opinion and much of the reaction just seems to be people who didn't like Ellsbury much finding more reasons not to like him. Of course, the whole pretty boy, pink hat, Ellsbury is overrated argument really has nothing to do with Ellsbury himself.

#19 URI


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 10:17 AM

QUOTE (86spike @ Jun 27 2010, 09:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The situation changed.


This is true. When Ellsbury went down, we didn't have Nava with the big club hitting. Now we do.

Access the uncrazy part of your brain and realize that maybe, just maybe, it's in both Ellsbury's best interest and the Red Sox best interests not to have Ellsbury in the lineup right now.

Ellsbury's eye isn't very good, and healthy, he doesn't have a lot of power. So with cranked ribs, you're going to get singles, diminished defense (he gets shitty reads that are made up with by his speed and his willingness to Greenwell himself, which he can't do) and little-to-no basestealing (since he probably shouldn't be sliding on them).

You're right, the Red Sox do need that.

QUOTE (seantoo @ Jun 27 2010, 10:58 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
He's also been about 7 wins above replacement for 2008 & 2009.


Considering he has been 6.5 wins above replacement for his career (2007-2010), and WAR includes offense and defense, you should be more careful in calling other people "flat out wrong".

#20 JohntheBaptist


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 10:28 AM

QUOTE (Pumpsie @ Jun 27 2010, 12:32 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Once again, Tito is handling this with the aplomb of a drunken elephant in a china shop. Zip it, Tito.

I feel like you're begging for a reaction with the Francona stuff. "Once again," "the aplomb of a drunken elephant"? Are we talking about the same person?

Every manager has a spread of activity upon which they try to get something out of their players. Let's say Tito, right now (for whatever reason- and I'd say it isn't really debatable that he has one), is on the more extreme end of what we've seen in terms of talking about a player to the press. That's what a drunken elephant looks like to you? You strike me as a person that makes a decision on something and then finds ways to make the world fit to it.

Edited by JohntheBaptist, 27 June 2010 - 10:30 AM.


#21 BannedbyNYYFans.com

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 10:55 AM

QUOTE (Plympton91 @ Jun 27 2010, 05:52 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
To me, the biggest need for Ellsbury is in CF, not the lineup, and I don't want him unless he's 100 percent, because even at 100 percent, he's sometimes a borderline major league hitter.


I agree and that's not a shot at Ellsbury. He's a career 95 OPS+ Hitter. He's a much better baseball player than that number suggests (as Seantoo points out in his earlier post). But what makes him valuable and a key member of this team is his ability to cover so much ground in CF, get on the base, and wreak havoc with his running game. If he can't play that style of baseball because he's only at 80% due to injury and due to a "cautious nature", do we really want him out there? They've played much of the season without him and if it takes another 3 - 4 weeks to get him back to 100%, so be it.

Edited by BannedbyNYYFans.com, 27 June 2010 - 10:57 AM.


#22 donutogre

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 11:07 AM

QUOTE (86spike @ Jun 27 2010, 08:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
We now have 4 out of 9 spots staffed by injured guys (Cameron) or filler (Nava, Macdonald, Hall/2Bman).


So you're advocating adding another "injured guy" to the lineup? Doesn't quite make a lot of sense if you're already concerned about the number of "injured guys" we have playing right now.

#23 Mugsys Jock


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 11:21 AM

I don't see the upside to Ellsbury for not busting his ass to get out there as soon as he can. He needs to be building his resume for forthcoming arb and FA years. Why wouldn't he be pushing to get out there, unless, you know, he's hurt?

#24 86spike


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 12:33 PM

QUOTE (donutogre @ Jun 27 2010, 12:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
So you're advocating adding another "injured guy" to the lineup? Doesn't quite make a lot of sense if you're already concerned about the number of "injured guys" we have playing right now.


I am advocating to get him on a rehab assignment to ge tuned up to play for the big club ASAP. Not activating him from the DL today.

And enough with the bullshit about him reinjuring his ribs when he came back.

He did not reinjure the first set of ribs! He hurt a new one!

That new one has had 5 weeks to heal. Unless Jacoby is an abnormally slow healer, he should be swinging a bat in A Ball this week and gutting it out to help his team.



#25 Andrew


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 12:51 PM

QUOTE (86spike @ Jun 27 2010, 01:33 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I am advocating to get him on a rehab assignment to ge tuned up to play for the big club ASAP. Not activating him from the DL today.

And enough with the bullshit about him reinjuring his ribs when he came back.

He did not reinjure the first set of ribs! He hurt a new one!

That new one has had 5 weeks to heal. Unless Jacoby is an abnormally slow healer, he should be swinging a bat in A Ball this week and gutting it out to help his team.


You are advocating him playing in the minors now? How is that going to help? Outside of you really, really, really wanting him back what possible rationale do you have for this?

He isn't ready. You are not a doctor. You do not have any first-hand knowledge of his health. This has nothing to do with guts. It is asinine that you kept insisting it is. You thinking he should be healed does not magically make it so.
Just. Stop.

Edited by Andrew, 27 June 2010 - 12:53 PM.


#26 MHead81

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 01:00 PM

QUOTE (Mugsys Jock @ Jun 27 2010, 12:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I don't see the upside to Ellsbury for not busting his ass to get out there as soon as he can. He needs to be building his resume for forthcoming arb and FA years. Why wouldn't he be pushing to get out there, unless, you know, he's hurt?



Because it's an easier sell for Boras to have him miss 2+ months and immediately put up his usual numbers upon a completely healthy return than it is to have him rush back while still in pain and put up a month or more of mediocre or bad numbers, which will bring down his 2010 averages. This is my guess because it's the only angle that makes any sense from their perspective whatsoever. I, too, have always had the stance that getting out there and making a case for more money in 2011 would be best, but again, what's better on paper: 4 months of at least his career averages or 5 months with 1-2 of the 5 potentially being subpar?

#27 86spike


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 01:03 PM

Terry Francona is clearly not pleased with Ellsbury.

That's enough for me.

#28 fuzzy_one

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 01:30 PM

QUOTE (86spike @ Jun 27 2010, 02:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Terry Francona is clearly not pleased with Ellsbury.

That's enough for me.


No. You're claiming that Francona is clearly not pleased with Ellsbury. What the report actually said is that Francona outright stated that Ellsbury is not ready to resume baseball activities. The only uncertainty was whether the team should keep Ells at API or bring him back to Boston now to continue rehab. That's a completely different question from whether or not he should be playing. No one associated with the Sox has said -- or even implied! -- that Ellsbury should be playing baseball right now.

I'm with Andrew: Just. Stop.

#29 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 02:23 PM

QUOTE (86spike @ Jun 27 2010, 01:33 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I am advocating to get him on a rehab assignment to ge tuned up to play for the big club ASAP. Not activating him from the DL today.

And enough with the bullshit about him reinjuring his ribs when he came back.

He did not reinjure the first set of ribs! He hurt a new one!

That new one has had 5 weeks to heal. Unless Jacoby is an abnormally slow healer, he should be swinging a bat in A Ball this week and gutting it out to help his team.

Stop talking nonsense. You haven't the foggiest idea of how badly he's hurt, how far along he is to being healed, or how his injury will affect his play. You are merely venting your spleen at the player for incomprehensible reasons of your own making. And you're completely derailing the thread with this crap.


#30 seantoo


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 03:15 PM

QUOTE (URI @ Jun 27 2010, 11:17 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Considering he has been 6.5 wins above replacement for his career (2007-2010), and WAR includes offense and defense, you should be more careful in calling other people "flat out wrong".


No, you should be more careful arguing for its own sake by injecting yourself when you clearly did not read the thread carefully. If you actually read what I responded to you would see it was the comment, "To me, the biggest need for Ellsbury is in CF, not the lineup, and I don't want him unless he's 100 percent, because even at 100 percent, he's sometimes a borderline major league hitter.-plympton-91". I underlined part of his quote in case any assistance was needed.
And that is flat out wrong.

I used the last two full years when he was the starter and that passes the sieve test. This year is both too small a sample and he's been playing hurt as well. In the vein of the original comment made, I rebutted that and it stands. You are simply arguing for its own merit. I know what WAR includes as well as RAR as I included that in my post and copied it from the fangraphs quick glossary. Do you think I was not aware the WAR was part of that glossary as well?

Is he not an above average hitter and was he not consistently so last season? Has he not progressed as a hitter each year as well? Monty Python says the bloody bloomin bird is dead.

Edit: Typos

Edited by seantoo, 27 June 2010 - 03:18 PM.


#31 URI


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 03:36 PM

His last two years he has a WAR of 3.5 in 2008, and 2.1 in 2009. Not about 7 wins above replacement between 2008 & 2009. He's been about 5.6 wins above replacement between those years.

You responded to a post about offense with a metric that measures offense and defense. And Ellsbury isn't that good defensively either, as according to the statistic that you cited that I argued about, he's below average for his position (center field for those season) offensively in those two years, and was raised to the level of "decent starter" in those years.

To be honest, I don't know what you know. You write incoherently and have never made an argument that I've found very persuasive. I've read every word in this thread, but unlike you, I understand them.

As Monty Python says "You suck as a poster and should stop posting so much. We get a lot of complaints about you, and you never waste an opportunity to shit all over yourself and make us wonder if you are actually mentally stunted or just suffered from a serious head trauma." That's a paraphrase; I was in drag when I wrote it though.

#32 86spike


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 04:26 PM

QUOTE (Smiling Joe Hesketh @ Jun 27 2010, 03:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Stop talking nonsense. You haven't the foggiest idea of how badly he's hurt, how far along he is to being healed, or how his injury will affect his play. You are merely venting your spleen at the player for incomprehensible reasons of your own making. And you're completely derailing the thread with this crap.


derailing?

This thread is about Ellsbury in limbo! I'm of the opinion that he should get his ass out of limbo. Discuss.

And to those who order posters to "Just. Stop.": blow me. This is a topic of importance to the team now that Pedroia is out. Let's debate it.

And to the rest of you: if Jacoby is clearly still unable to play and his bosses are clearly on that same page, then why hasn't Francona vociferously defended him the way he almost always does? Tito is a hell of a player's manager most of the time, yet the topic of Jacoby elicits a series of verbal shrugs and several different ways of saying 'I dunno'. That's not like Tito at all.

Where there's smoke, there's fire. I think Tito is frustrated with Ellsbury's slow progress. I know I am.

#33 BannedbyNYYFans.com

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 04:27 PM

From Lurker KHG regarding my comment that Ellsbury is a career 95 OPS+ hitter:

QUOTE
I agree very much with your post in the Ellsbury thread, but you mentioned in the Ellsbury thread that he's a career 95 OPS+ hitter. That's true, but I think the flaws of OPS slightly understate his hitting abilities. Ellsbury has a career 109 wRC+, which uses wOBA instead of OPS to determine value. With the bat, he's more of a 109 than a 95.


This post makes sense but that doesn't change my opinion. Regardless of whether one values Ellsbury as a "very good" hitter like some have done or an "average" bat like others have posted, nobody can argue that much of his value is in his baserunning and ground he covers in the OF (especially in LF if Cam is in CF). And to have a guy come back early and tell him "You can't dive in the OF and you can't slide in a way that will hurt your ribs (remember he hurt both front and back ribs) but GO GET 'EM ANYWAY!" seems illogical. If this same injury was plaguing a slow footed catcher, maybe you get away with him coming back slightly banged up, but not a speedy OFer like Ellsbury. Lets face it, his value is greatly reduced if he can't slide or dive without getting re-injured and I don't see any reason to risk it.

#34 URI


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 04:36 PM

QUOTE (86spike @ Jun 27 2010, 05:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Where there's smoke, there's fire. I think Tito is frustrated with Ellsbury's slow progress. I know I am.


He could be frustrated with his slow progress, but that's irrelevent.

He hasn't been on a rehab assignment because he hasn't been medically cleared to start one. I'm frustrated too (the other thread, I came down on the "he's soft" side) but I'd rather him not play and get healthy than force the issue and re-injure himself or be ineffective.

We have plenty of healthy guys to be ineffective that aren't as important to the teams future. Ellsbury is just not a good enough offensive player for me to want him rushed. Him at 90% (if he's even there) just isn't good enough to play...but he will.

#35 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 05:42 PM

QUOTE
His last two years he has a WAR of 3.5 in 2008, and 2.1 in 2009. Not about 7 wins above replacement between 2008 & 2009. He's been about 5.6 wins above replacement between those years.


Minor point, but Fangraphs has him at 3.9 in '08, and 2.5 in '09. Interestingly, he was +0 offensively in '08, +12 in '09. Defensively, +21 in '08, and -10 in '09. Which #'s are "right", fangraphs or b-ref? Wasn't there a defensive adjustment done recently that gave Ellsbury (and Bay) some "value" back?

#36 absintheofmalaise


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 05:47 PM

QUOTE (Rudy Pemberton @ Jun 27 2010, 06:42 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Minor point, but Fangraphs has him at 3.9 in '08, and 2.5 in '09. Interestingly, he was +0 offensively in '08, +12 in '09. Defensively, +21 in '08, and -10 in '09. Which #'s are "right", fangraphs or b-ref? Wasn't there a defensive adjustment done recently that gave Ellsbury (and Bay) some "value" back?

Yes there was, but they still shouldn't be used to judge a player on defense. And that's from MGL.

#37 URI


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 05:58 PM

QUOTE (Rudy Pemberton @ Jun 27 2010, 06:42 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Minor point, but Fangraphs has him at 3.9 in '08, and 2.5 in '09. Interestingly, he was +0 offensively in '08, +12 in '09. Defensively, +21 in '08, and -10 in '09. Which #'s are "right", fangraphs or b-ref? Wasn't there a defensive adjustment done recently that gave Ellsbury (and Bay) some "value" back?


Well, that brings in another issue then. Using one site to quote numbers that support your argument and another when the first site doesn't "fit" with a complimentary argument. Intellectual dishonesty rather than incompetency. My bad, seantoo. You still suck something awful.

As for defense, the guy that invented the numbers think you shouldn't really put that much stock them. Abs is on it.

#38 Rasputin


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 06:08 PM

QUOTE (86spike @ Jun 27 2010, 05:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
derailing?

This thread is about Ellsbury in limbo! I'm of the opinion that he should get his ass out of limbo. Discuss.

And to those who order posters to "Just. Stop.": blow me. This is a topic of importance to the team now that Pedroia is out. Let's debate it.

And to the rest of you: if Jacoby is clearly still unable to play and his bosses are clearly on that same page, then why hasn't Francona vociferously defended him the way he almost always does? Tito is a hell of a player's manager most of the time, yet the topic of Jacoby elicits a series of verbal shrugs and several different ways of saying 'I dunno'. That's not like Tito at all.

Where there's smoke, there's fire. I think Tito is frustrated with Ellsbury's slow progress. I know I am.


Why would we debate something when none of us have any information upon which to base a position?

Arguing this issue is not a debate it's WEEI dick waving. You don't have any support for the position that Ellsbury needs to play. The people who disagree with you don't have any support for their position other than taking the team at its word which is crappy support at best.

Any argument here is just farting in the wind.

#39 seantoo


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 07:01 PM

QUOTE (URI @ Jun 27 2010, 04:36 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
His last two years he has a WAR of 3.5 in 2008, and 2.1 in 2009. Not about 7 wins above replacement between 2008 & 2009. He's been about 5.6 wins above replacement between those years.

You responded to a post about offense with a metric that measures offense and defense. And Ellsbury isn't that good defensively either, as according to the statistic that you cited that I argued about, he's below average for his position (center field for those season) offensively in those two years, and was raised to the level of "decent starter" in those years.

To be honest, I don't know what you know. You write incoherently and have never made an argument that I've found very persuasive. I've read every word in this thread, but unlike you, I understand them.

As Monty Python says "You suck as a poster and should stop posting so much. We get a lot of complaints about you, and you never waste an opportunity to shit all over yourself and make us wonder if you are actually mentally stunted or just suffered from a serious head trauma." That's a paraphrase; I was in drag when I wrote it though.


No URI you went out of your way to be a 'Richard' toward me but you were wrong and can't man up. I asked you on another thread if you were really interesting on debating something to take it off the board but as I figured you declined but still declared victory and I let it be. I cared about the board but you obviously cared more about looking good and that is still there in black and white.
I responded to what the poster wrote but you have not. I responded with offensive stats that demonstrated his conclusion was wrong. IN ADDITION to that at the very end I added Ellsbury overall value, is that so hard for you to comprehend? Apparently what's incoherent here is you attacking without due cause then being overly defensive when confronted with facts. What Shack said to Kobe, 'How my..... understand that paraphrase do you?
On top of all that you are wrong, 3.9 plus 2.7 equals 6.6 or about 7 (3.9 is rounded to 4 and 2.7 is rounded to 3) as I claimed apparently you don't comprehend what I wrote nor do you carefully read what was posted on fangraphs. It's 2.7 not 2.1. Good job. You will not admit your were wrong and change direction in your attack as I thought you would before and in fact did and now you're idea of saving face will be to bash forward. Keep smoking a lot.

I should have let your post alone as it says more about you than I ever could.


Edit: Part of the post was copied twice. AND it was edited before posting for spelling and grammar so lie about that because you have nothing else to stand on. When you are wrong and know it, simply lie about spelling and grammar to take the focus off yourself.

Edited by seantoo, 27 June 2010 - 07:22 PM.


#40 Leon Trotsky

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Posted 27 June 2010 - 07:14 PM

QUOTE (seantoo @ Jun 27 2010, 08:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I should have let your post alone as it says more about you than I ever could.


At the very least I laughed at URI's posts, whereas I remain flummoxed by seantoo's spelling and grammatical errors.

We have no idea what Ellsbury's injury status is. Some soundbites in the Globe tell us shite. Now lets worry about Victor and move on.

#41 seantoo


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 07:16 PM

QUOTE (absintheofmalaise @ Jun 27 2010, 06:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Yes there was, but they still shouldn't be used to judge a player on defense. And that's from MGL.

The problem was someone made an offensive claim about Ellsbury stating, "because even at 100 percent, he's sometimes a borderline major league hitter." Several OFFENSIVE stats were shown to indicate that that simply was not true. In addition to serveral offensive stats provided his overal value was given, not his defensive value. Then URI decided to make that the argument and then he copied the numbers down wrong to boot. That sums it up.
Don't let him muddy the water try as he has and likely will.

#42 URI


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 07:20 PM

QUOTE (seantoo @ Jun 27 2010, 08:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
No URI you went out of your way to be a 'Richard' toward me but you were wrong and can't man up. I asked you on another thread if you were really interesting on debating something to take it off the board but as I figured you declined but still declared victory and I let it be. I cared about the board but you obviously cared more about looking good and that is still there in black and white.


What the fuck are you talking about?

QUOTE (seantoo @ Jun 27 2010, 08:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I responded to what the poster wrote but you have not. I responded with offensive stats that demonstrated his conclusion was wrong. IN ADDITION to that at the very end I added Ellsbury overall value, is that so hard for you to comprehend? Apparently what's incoherent here is you attacking without due cause then being overly defensive when confronted with facts. What Shack said to Kobe, 'How my..... understand that paraphrase do you?


Plympton91 made a comment about his value as a hitter, which you refuted, and said "Fangraphs has his batting at 11.8 in 2009, Park Adjusted Runs Above Average based on wOBA. He's also been about 7 wins above replacement for 2008 & 2009."

You jumped around, and then I posted a link with different WAR stat showing the variability that Rudy picked up. You write incoherently.


QUOTE (seantoo @ Jun 27 2010, 08:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
On top of all that you are wrong, 3.9 plus 2.7 equals 6.6 or about 7 (3.9 is rounded to 4 and 2.7 is rounded to 3) as I claimed apparently you don't comprehend what I wrote nor do you carefully read what was posted on fangraphs. It's 2.7 not 2.1. Good job.


Check the link I posted, dumbshit.

QUOTE (seantoo @ Jun 27 2010, 08:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
You will not admit your were wrong and change direction in your attack as I thought you would before and in fact did and now you're idea of saving face will be to bash forward. Keep smoking a lot.


It doesn't make sense, since I didn't attack you. I disagreed with you, which you obviously can't handle, and you are not able to express yourself coherently.

QUOTE (seantoo @ Jun 27 2010, 08:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I should have let your post alone as it says more about you than I ever could.

On top of all that you are wrong, 3.9 plus 2.7 equals 6.6 or about 7 (3.9 is rounded to 4 and 2.7 is rounded to 3) as I claimed apparently you don't comprehend what I wrote nor do you carefully read what was posted on fangraphs. It's 2.7 not 2.1. Good job. You will not admit your were wrong and change direction in your attack as I thought you would before and in fact did and now you're idea of saving face will be to bash forward. Be better than you have been.


You write incoherently.

QUOTE (seantoo @ Jun 27 2010, 08:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I should have let your post alone as it says more about you than I ever could.


You're right. It shows me as someone who can actually hold a discussion via the written word. You make yourself look like an incoherent idiot with a possible massive brain trauma, who is either 10 years old, or English is either your 10th or 11th language. I might have read this wrong though.

Basically, I'm publically giving you the final warning you are going to get on this board, since I don't think you have any interested getting better and I don't want to get the 1-2 PM's a week saying how awful you are anymore. Get better or leave. Do not have me make this decision for you.

And for the record, this is an attack: "Seantoo is one of the worst posters on the site. I think his parents are brother and sister, possibly twins. I hope he gets hit by a car and dies, so we never have to see his word vomit again."

So help me God, if I get a PM from you, I'm murdering your whole family. That's an attack also.

#43 URI


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 07:23 PM

QUOTE (seantoo @ Jun 27 2010, 08:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The problem was someone made an offensive claim about Ellsbury stating, "because even at 100 percent, he's sometimes a borderline major league hitter." Several OFFENSIVE stats were shown to indicate that that simply was not true. In addition to serveral offensive stats provided his overal value was given, not his defensive value. Then URI decided to make that the argument and then he copied the numbers down wrong to boot. That sums it up.
Don't let him muddy the water try as he has and likely will.


I used BRef, you used Fangraphs. The water isn't muddied by the one who has command of logical thought and the English language, no matter how tenuous it may be.

#44 absintheofmalaise


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 07:25 PM

QUOTE (seantoo @ Jun 27 2010, 08:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The problem was someone made an offensive claim about Ellsbury stating, "because even at 100 percent, he's sometimes a borderline major league hitter." Several OFFENSIVE stats were shown to indicate that that simply was not true. In addition to serveral offensive stats provided his overal value was given, not his defensive value. Then URI decided to make that the argument and then he copied the numbers down wrong to boot. That sums it up.
Don't let him muddy the water try as he has and likely will.

What the fuck are you talking about. Rudy asked about some adjustments that were made regarding Ellsbury and Bay in UZR. I answered his question. He also made a reference to WAR. WAR combines offense and defense and uses UZR.

#45 seantoo


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 07:49 PM

QUOTE (URI @ Jun 27 2010, 08:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
So help me God, if I get a PM from you, I'm murdering your whole family. That's an attack also.

2 choices, you can visit my house and we'll have a nice little chat about this and we'll see how you talk then (I'll PM it to you gladly) or you can refund me money. You will not talk to me the way you have here and that's a promise.

#46 URI


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Posted 27 June 2010 - 07:53 PM

I promise you that I will talk to you the way I've talked to you...I already have.

Good bye. The two people from this thread that have PMed me about how awful you are, and the two lurkers I promoted in your place thank you for making my decision very easy.

#47 Myt1


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Posted 28 June 2010 - 10:24 AM

QUOTE (seantoo @ Jun 27 2010, 08:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The problem was someone made an offensive claim about Ellsbury stating, "because even at 100 percent, he's sometimes a borderline major league hitter." Several OFFENSIVE stats were shown to indicate that that simply was not true.


Well, yeah. If you ignore the word "sometimes" in the sentence that you're quoting.

#48 Sparky Lyle


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Posted 28 June 2010 - 10:59 AM

QUOTE (URI @ Jun 27 2010, 08:53 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I promise you that I will talk to you the way I've talked to you...I already have.

Good bye. The two people from this thread that have PMed me about how awful you are, and the two lurkers I promoted in your place thank you for making my decision very easy.





Who were the lurkers? And this is some of the funniest shit I've read in a long time. Coming from the Main Board. That's saying something.

#49 SMU_Sox


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Posted 28 June 2010 - 11:20 AM

From Peter Abraham of the Globe: Various Injury Updates.

QUOTE
Jacoby Ellsbury: This issue seems cloudy. He's still in Phoenix and it's going on three weeks now. He may stay there, he could come back, he could go to Florida. If Terry Francona knows — and I don't think he does — he wasn't saying. It's possible Ellsbury could return to the lineup by the end of July. But given how this has gone, don't bet the rent money on that.


#50 86spike


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Posted 28 June 2010 - 11:29 AM

I'm telling you guys... Francona doesn't like this. There is zero reason for him to be dodgy about it unless the team disagrees with Team Boras on what Ellsbury is up to.