798 replies to this topic

[Billy R Ford]

Lucky Day 13 for the Americans?

The early pair of matches sees the end of Group C:

Slovenia vs. England
United States vs. Algeria

Group C
#...Team.........W...D...L...P...GF...GA...GD
1...Slovenia......1...1...0...4....3.....2....+1
2...USA.............0...2...0...2....3.....3.....0
3...England.......0...2...0...2....1.....1.....0
4...Algeria.........0....1...1...1....0.....1....-1

Cheat sheet for the results (the #s are total points):

• Every country advances with a win, with one minor exception: Algeria need to win by two if England also wins. This will guarantee them a better goal differential than Slovenia, as the best GD Slovenia can hope for with a loss is 0, while Algeria's would be +1 with a two goal win.
• The most favorable result in the SLO-ENG match for the United States is probably a 0-0 draw; this way, the Americans would still advance with a draw of their own (as they have scored more goals than the English), and they would win the group with a victory (even a 1-0 victory would put them level with Slovenia on goal differential, and they will then have scored more goals).
• From an English perspective, it doesn't matter what happens in the USA-ALG match as far as advancement goes; they advance with a win, and realistically are eliminated with a loss or draw (the one exception being if both matches are draws, but England outscores the US by >2 goals to make up for the difference in goals scored. Not impossible, but unlikely). To win the group, English fans would hope for a win coupled with an Algeria win or draw.

The later pair of matches features the teams of Group D:

Ghana vs. Germany
Australia vs. Serbia

Group D
#...Team.........W...D...L...P...GF...GA...GD
1...Ghana.........1...1...0...4....2.....1....+1
2...Germany......1...0...1...3....4.....1....+3
3...Serbia.........1...0...1...3....1.....1.....0
4...Australia......0...1...1...1....1.....5....-4

Cheat Sheet:

• Like Group C, no country has been eliminated yet, but unlike Group C one country is de facto eliminated in the sense that they don't have a realistic shot at advancing, and that is Australia. Australia needs either a win coupled with a Ghana victory (unlikely, for reasons below), or a massive win that will make up the goal-differential between themselves and Germany/Ghana. In the event of a draw between GHA-GER, they would need to win by at least 7 goals to match Germany's goal differential; should Germany win, they would only have to win by, say, 2 and hope Germany wins handily (by at least 3). Not likely, but possible.
• I believe a Ghana victory is unlikely because they know they only need a draw to advance; combined with the facts that Germany are the superior team and Ghana is the only sub-Saharan African nation left with a realistic shot to advance, this suggests to me Ghana will play defensively, hoping to escape with a draw. Of course, they may instead play to win the group, which will require a win.
• Germany, on the other hand, is likely to play for a win, as a draw and Serbia win knocks them out (editted; thanks to JA below).

Edited by Billy R Ford, 23 June 2010 - 08:42 AM.

[jon abbey]

Thanks for that, one quibble:

Germany may also play for a draw, as the only way this prevents them from advancing is the unlikely event Australia beats Serbia by at least 7 goals. But I expect them to play to win, as a win likely ensures they win the group (as they have a goal differential advantage of Serbia).

Germany actually need to play to win, a draw and a Serbia win knocks them out.

[nvalvo]

One of the most interesting factors about tomorrow's matches is that both groups could conceivably send their best team on paper (England, Germany) through in the second position.

[MentalDisabldLst]

I just did this up and I'm pretty sure it covers almost all tiebreaker scenarios.



Slovenia:
- In with a win or a draw (unless Algeria wins by more than 2)
- In with a loss, if Algeria beats USA by 1 or 2 goals

USA:
- In with a win
- In with a draw, if England lose, or draw while scoring 2 or fewer goals more than USA

England:
- In with a win
- In with a draw, if USA loses, or draws while scoring 2 fewer goals than England

Algeria:
- In with a win plus Slovenia win
- In with a win plus SLN-ENG draw, if winning by more than 2



Ghana:
- In with a win or a draw
- In with a 0-1 loss and a 0-0 SER-AUS draw, or a 1-2 loss and a 1-1 SER-AUS draw, etc

Germany:
- In with a win
- In with a draw if Serbia fails to win

Serbia:
- In with a win
- In with a draw, if Ghana loses by more than 1

Australia:
- In with a win and a Ghana win
- If Ghana & Germany draw, in with a win by at least 8 goals



There's the fun wrinkle that if both USA and England tie their games, with England and Slovenia each scoring exactly 2 more goals than USA and Algeria, then the #2 spot out of our group is decided between USA and England via a coin flip. This would cause collective cardiac arrest for the entirety of Great Britain.

Edited by MentalDisabldLst, 23 June 2010 - 06:57 AM.

[URI]

This would cause collective cardiac arrest for the entirety of Great Britain.

Except Scotland and Wales. They might want England in Roo-ins, but I doubt it will reach the point of heart attack.

[cjdmadcow]

England team to play Slovenia: James, Johnson, A Cole, Upson, Terry, Barry, Milner, Lampard, Gerrard, Rooney, Defoe.

Upson in for the suspended Carragher, Milner replaces Lennon and Defoe replaces Heskey. God knows what the formation is though.

[ifmanis5]

No clue what those tables mean, I suck at math. Just win the friggin game.

[Zomp]

It has to be a 4-4-2 with Gerrard playing wide, I think. He has 4 central midfielders there though (I'm aware Milner plays both wide and through the middle).

Any word on the US Lineup yet?

Good luck, I'll be rooting for England today.


I'll go with:
England 2 Slovenia 0
USA 2 Algeria 1

[cjdmadcow]

USA v Algeria line-ups:

United States: 1-Tim Howard; 6-Steve Cherundolo, 15-Jay DeMerit, 12-Jonathan Bornstein, 3-Carlos Bocanegra; 10-Landon Donovan, 4-Michael Bradley, 19-Maurice Edu, 8-Clint Dempsey; 17-Jozy Altidore, 9-Hercules Gomez.

Algeria: 23-Rais Ouheb Mbouli; 2-Majid Bougherra, 5-Rafik Halliche, 4-Antar Yahia, 3-Nader Belhadj, 21-Fouad Kadir, 19-Hassan Yebda, 8-Medhi Lacen, 15-Karim Ziani, 11-Rafik Djebbour, 13-Karim Matmour.

Referee: Frank De Bleeckere (Belgium

[LTF]

I blew off work. The wife is heading to the beach with the kids. The pants will be removed, stuffed into a ball, and tossed across the room.

[Jimmy Walsh]

USA lineup per Grant Wahl:

Howard; Cherundolo, DeMerit, Bocanegra, Bornstein; Donovan, Bradley, Edu, Dempsey; Gomez, Altidore.

[cjdmadcow]

Slovenia v England line-ups

Slovenia: 1-Samir Handanovic; 2-Miso Brecko, 4-Marko Suler, 5-Bostjan Cesar, 13-Bojan Jokic; 10-Valter Birsa, 8-Robert Koren, 18-Aleksandar Radosavljevic, 17-Andraz Kirm; 9-Zlatan Ljubijankic, 11-Milivoje Novakovic.

England: 1-David James; 2-Glen Johnson, 15-Matthew Upson, 6-John Terry, 3-Ashley Cole; 16-James Milner, 4-Steven Gerrard, 8-Frank Lampard, 14-Gareth Barry; 19-Jermain Defoe, 10-Wayne Rooney.

Referee: Wolfgang Stark (Germany)

[Zomp]

Gomez? Wow.

Would have liked to see Buddle in there.

[MentalDisabldLst]

Notwithstanding Corsi's Univision link (which is blocked for me), I'd really welcome any links people can provide for the USA game. I'm in an office in England - everybody's watching the other game, the BBC only has the other game, and I can't use the usual forums to find links behind this damned firewall.

Cheers thanks guys.

Edited by MentalDisabldLst, 23 June 2010 - 08:11 AM.

[ossie schreckengost]

Referee: Wolfgang Stark (Germany)

why, for gods sake, do you appoint a german referee for england´s last group game, when germamy´s potential opponent in the round of 16 will be determined by england´s performance today?
nothing good can come out of that.

[Wake]

Notwithstanding Corsi's Univision link (which is blocked for me), I'd really welcome any links people can provide for the USA game. I'm in an office in England - everybody's watching the other game, the BBC only has the other game, and I can't use the usual forums to find links behind this damned firewall.

Cheers thanks guys.

http://atdhe.net/#

[cjdmadcow]

Notwithstanding Corsi's Univision link (which is blocked for me), I'd really welcome any links people can provide for the USA game. I'm in an office in England - everybody's watching the other game, the BBC only has the other game, and I can't use the usual forums to find links behind this damned firewall.

Cheers thanks guys.

If you are in the UK, either game is available to watch via the BBC website. I think this is the one for the USA game for you:

http://news.bbc.co.u...atches/match_38

[cjdmadcow]

why, for gods sake, do you appoint a german referee for england´s last group game, when germamy´s potential opponent in the round of 16 will be determined by england´s performance today?
nothing good can come out of that.

Quite frankly, the potential opponent next up is of little concern right now. I just want us to get out of this group first.

But it is a valid point.

[Arroyo Con Frijoles]

The Jonathan Bornstein experience.

[Lose Remerswaal]

I hope Univision covers the US game. Much better picture than the atdhe link

[soxfaninyankeeland]

I guess I knew we weren't getting through this without Bornstein taking the field. Fuck.

[ifmanis5]

Gomez? Wow.

Would have liked to see Buddle in there.

Me too. I like Edu over Clark, obvi.

Why is Spector on the dark side of Bradley's moon?

[Joe D Reid]

I guess I knew we weren't getting through this without Bornstein taking the field. Fuck.

I was going to say, I'm a little surprised that people aren't talking more about Bornstein bumping Boca to center back, in turn bumping Onyewu to the bench.

I don't mind it in theory, because Algeria's threats will come down the wing (where Boca no longer has the speed to stop them) and don't have a lot of size to match Gooch against. But still--Bornstein has looked SO bad this year.

Edited by Joe D Reid, 23 June 2010 - 08:26 AM.

[ifmanis5]

More I think about it, Bornstein over Spector is just dumb. Hopefully won't matter.

[ifmanis5]

Still no Joe Cole for England. Upson for Carragher. Milner and Defoe for Lennon & Heskey. WTF??

[Billy R Ford]

Germany actually need to play to win, a draw and a Serbia win knocks them out.

Thanks, the original post has been editted to fix that.



Jonathan Bornstein starting is very, very worrisome. I know Spector didn't play well there with West Ham this past season, but he was still much better there than I've ever seen Bornstein at a major international game (ie, against Italy & Brazil last year, or Holland this year). I don't mind Gomez over Buddle, but Bornstein starting is a mistake.

[Joe D Reid]

This just feels like a recipe for giving up yet another early goal while the revamped defense figures out what they're doing.

[URI]

Martin Sheen wouldn't be my first shot at narrating a pro-US inspirational commercial.

[Ahriman]

Doh, some ugly-voiced turd is alongside Ian Darke. Back to Univision for me.

[cjdmadcow]

Martin Sheen wouldn't be my first shot at narrating a pro-US inspirational commercial.

Check out the BBC website and look for our version with an actor called Brian Blessed. Priceless.

[ifmanis5]

That Sheen open was a joke. Ian Darke for USA and Martin Tyler for the England game.

[URI]

Check out the BBC website and look for our version with an actor called Brian Blessed. Priceless.

Did he ever play your PM on a tv show? That would be super.

By the way, the only ones I saw not signing God Save the Queen was Milner, Terry, and Rooney. I bet Rooney forgot the words.

[Rasputin]

Is it my imagination or did the Algerian national anthem sound just a wee bit too much like a polka?

[locknload]

I'm watching on univision. Goddamn espn and comcast are giving an apache error when trying to log in. Way to fail webhosting 101.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

Martin Sheen wouldn't be my first shot at narrating a pro-US inspirational commercial.

Charlton Heston is busy having his gun pried from his cold, dead hands.

[OilCanShotTupac]

Univision here too. I hope no one in my office notices I'm not doing a goddamned thing.

[locknload]

Univision here too. I hope no one in my office notices I'm not doing a goddamned thing.

I was worried about that game so I spent the day huddled in my cube then when the US scored the go ahead goal the whole office went nuts. Everyone else was doing the exact same thing.

[MentalDisabldLst]

Corsi's link - blocked
adthe - blocked
Univision - "this content is not available in your area"

Forums on which I would find links, like myp2pforum.eu ... blocked.

Can anyone go there (or their favorite site) and just paste me a bunch of links to try? A million thank yous.

[accidentalsuccess]

The Jonathan Bornstein experience.

[Harry Hooper]

Holy shit.

[Zomp]

WAKE THE FUCK UP DEFENSE.

Good effort by Hercules.

[ifmanis5]

We are terrible at the back. We better score soon to cover their arse.

[Tony C]

Is it my imagination or did the Algerian national anthem sound just a wee bit too much like a polka?

Yep, i was thinking maybe I had forgotten they were colonized by the Germans or something. Bizarre.

ouch! ..almost...

[OilCanShotTupac]

Ohhhh - off the crossbar for Algeria. . . . shit. . . .

furious end-to-end action so far. . .

[Soxy Brown]

Lucky to not be down 1-0 early again. Jesus, that was scary.

[JCizzle]

Good lord is our defense sloppy.

[Zomp]

Anyone else trying to switch between games every 30 seconds?