80 replies to this topic

[Wingack]

http://www.nypost.co...WZbB9nA0OjQAm2K

While starting pitching has been a Yankee strength, the Mariners believe the defending World Series champions will be in the hunt when Seattle shops stud lefty Cliff Lee.

"They want one of the [Yanks' minor-league] catchers and [Eduardo] Nunez," a person familiar with Seattle's thought process said of any potential deal with the Yankees.

Austin Romine is catching at Double-A Trenton, and Jesus Montero is catching for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. They are considered the top prospects in the organization, which also has young catchers Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy in addition to Francisco Cervelli, who is in the big leagues.

Nunez is having a breakout season at SWB.

The Mariners are scouting the Yankees' organization thoroughly. They had two scouts recently in Charleston (Single-A). Last night they had two scouts watching Trenton play Reading, one of whom was former Yankee minor-league coach Bill Masse. They are slated to have at least one scout check on SWB shortly.

The immediate need for the Yankees is a bat, but if the Mariners are going to shop Lee, the Yankees will be interested because he will be a free agent after the season. Of course, he is making $9 million this season, so even if the deal is made at the July 31 deadline, the Yankees would have to pay him $3 million.

If they were to give up Romine or Montero, the Yankees would need assurances that Lee would sign an extension and not become a free agent.

As for adding a bat, the Yankees have scouts following the Astros in the event that club holds a fire sale and wants to move first baseman Lance Berkman, who would be a DH for the Yankees.

There are obstacles to adding Berkman or any other high-priced bat such as the White Sox's Paul Konerko, because of the money owed. Berkman is making $14.5 million this year and Konerko $12 million. Berkman has a complete no-trade clause; Konerko a limited no-trade.

If I were GM if Lee could be had for Romine and Nunez it would be done already. That is, if the Yankees has a spot open in their rotation. Kinda doesn't make sense to go after him, unless they plan on moving Hughes back to the pen again, which would be crazy unless he had already reached his innings limit.

[Bucknahs Bum Ankle]

You don't think the Yankees would give Vazquez the boot to the bullpen in favor of Lee? Or maybe he's included in the trade if heavily subsidized. I understand Vazquez has been pitching better lately, but he's no Cliff Lee.

[jon abbey]

It doesn't make sense to give up a stud chip for Lee when they can get him in the offseason if they want and they have no real hole in the rotation now. Also, it's very shortsighted to trade Romine for almost anyone unless NY really believes Montero can stick at catcher.

The everyday DH spot, once Posada is catching again, is the place that could use an upgrade for 2010. Once Konerko and/or Berkman's price (in prospects) falls low enough, I could see them going after one of those guys. The farm is already thin from last winter's trades, though, so I'm sure Cashman is hesitant to move more guys unless it's in the precisely right deal.

[terrynever]

If Lee wants $20M per year, the Yanks will have to lose either Pettitte or Javy after this season. Doesn't seem like a big problem. Javy's contract is up at the end of this season. They save $12M on that one, assuming he is not asked to return. Pettitte's probably going to merit a raise after this season is over, even at age 39.

Possible 2011 rotation: CC, AJ, Lee, Hughes, Andy. Three lefthanders. Interesting. Not much organizational depth behind them.

If the Yanks are five games back in late July, they may feel like trading for Lee (and getting a firm commitment for future years before the trade is done) is the thing that will put them in the playoffs. Montero's value is probably falling now that he's hitting .217 in AAA ball. I don't like the idea of trading Romine either. He seems like a complete catcher, a good defender who will hit enough. Having Montero catching this pitching staff for 110 games in 2011 or 2012 scares the hell out of me. The starters might be longing for the days when Posada caught them.

No hitters are needed.

[Zen]

The starters might be longing for the days when Posada caught them.

I don't quite understand this, though... my understanding was that Montero's shortcomings at catcher had almost everything to do with his throws to second... that he is plenty serviceable as a receiver/game caller. And the other concern was someone of his size/body type won't last at the position.

Besides, I doubt Montero for 110 games in 2011 is worse than what they have been used to from 38-year-old Posada.

[JerseyJay]

I'd be all for a Nunez/Romine or Montero for Lee deal. Anytime you can add a Cy Young calibur pitcher, with his post season success into the mix i think you need to do it. Especially when you are trading from strength(catching). If this were to happen, i don't think it would be Hughes going back to the pen, especially with his breakout season to this point...

Instead I think we would see Vazquez go into the bullpen and take Aceves Role... If indeed ace is out for the season,Javy could be a decent replacment. He could go deep innings out of the pen, and has already had a good outing in relief during his skipped start a few weeks back. Either way, if we can add Lee i think you do so and figure out the musical chairs afterwards. As long as we can extend Lee, I think you have to make the move, even if they demand Montero. Lee is a legit top of the rotation guy, and would also be insurance if pettitte retires.

Sidenote - Does anyone know why i can only type above quoted text?

http://www.nypost.co...WZbB9nA0OjQAm2K



If I were GM if Lee could be had for Romine and Nunez it would be done already. That is, if the Yankees has a spot open in their rotation. Kinda doesn't make sense to go after him, unless they plan on moving Hughes back to the pen again, which would be crazy unless he had already reached his innings limit.

[terrynever]

I don't quite understand this, though... my understanding was that Montero's shortcomings at catcher had almost everything to do with his throws to second... that he is plenty serviceable as a receiver/game caller. And the other concern was someone of his size/body type won't last at the position.

Besides, I doubt Montero for 110 games in 2011 is worse than what they have been used to from 38-year-old Posada.

My concern is with his game-calling. I'm talking about a new catcher learning the league, and his pitching staff. Except for spring training, Montero has not caught any of the starters in a game. Cervelli made a quick adjustment last year but he's a smart kid who learned a lot from Molina and Posada.

The key here is I don't know enough about Montero to perceive whether he is willing to work and learn at the speed of Cervelli. How smart is Montero? Catchers tend to be the smartest guys on the field, which is why so many of them end up as managers.

Montero is still an unknown quantity to most of us because he's toiling away in Scranton. That's why I am very curious to see him up close when he comes to Pawtucket for the first time on June 29.

Edited by terrynever, 09 June 2010 - 12:12 PM.

[Meff Nelton]

If Lee is only a 1-2 win upgrade over whoever gets the boot (remember it's only a half season,) it makes no sense to move anybody of long term value for him so close to free agency.

And it happens every year that some hitter on an expiring contract with a no-trade or ten and five always gets moved for diminished value. It doesn't have to be a superstar, though Berkman does fit those criteria. Just have to wait until the deadline to see who's available, and what team has to sell short.

[JerseyJay]

I don't think you can just write it off as a 1-2 win difference and move on. While Lee may only finish with 2 more wins they say Javy Vazquez... his value over javy would be much bigger then that. Lee was something like 4-0 with a 1.50 era in the post season last year, and gives us another lefty in the rotation. Lee would certainly be in the playoff rotation, while javy likely wouldnt factor in - and certainly wouldnt be somone fans would count on.

I know id much rather see Lee on the hill in a big game then Javy or A.J. or hell, maybe more then anyone on this Yankees team. I don't see it as giving up too much either, since we'd be trading from depth. You can brush it off as only a 2 win upgrade, but its much more then that.... especially since the end goal is repeating as WS champs, and not just getting into the playoffs.

If Lee is only a 1-2 win upgrade over whoever gets the boot (remember it's only a half season,) it makes no sense to move anybody of long term value for him so close to free agency.

And it happens every year that some hitter on an expiring contract with a no-trade or ten and five always gets moved for diminished value. It doesn't have to be a superstar, though Berkman does fit those criteria. Just have to wait until the deadline to see who's available, and what team has to sell short.

[TomRicardo]

It doesn't make sense to give up a stud chip for Lee when they can get him in the offseason if they want and they have no real hole in the rotation now. Also, it's very shortsighted to trade Romine for almost anyone unless NY really believes Montero can stick at catcher.

The everyday DH spot, once Posada is catching again, is the place that could use an upgrade for 2010. Once Konerko and/or Berkman's price (in prospects) falls low enough, I could see them going after one of those guys. The farm is already thin from last winter's trades, though, so I'm sure Cashman is hesitant to move more guys unless it's in the precisely right deal.

There are a couple of reasons to trade for Lee then flip Vasquez. Right now Vasquez is right on the line to become Type B free agent and will probably drop down. You will probably get more trading Vasquez to a desperate team in the NL looking for pitching (Mets or Dodgers for example) then what you would receive in s supplemental pick. That could replenish a bit of what you lose to get Lee.

Secondly Lee is a lot better than Vasquez. The fact is extending him midseason will probably be cheaper then letting him get to free agency where other teams might start bidding crazy.

Finally what kind of future does Romine and Nunez have with the Yankees? Cervilli seems like a competent back up catcher and Jeter is going to have to be dragged from SS.

In the end I think that it would a good move for the Yankees provided they can get enough for Vasquez.

[Meff Nelton]

Secondly Lee is a lot better than Vasquez. The fact is extending him midseason will probably be cheaper then letting him get to free agency where other teams might start bidding crazy.

Lee has said that he's going to Free Agency no matter what. And the most recent MLB Trade Rumors Elias projection has Vasquez as a Type-A, factoring in his early season performance.

[billy ashley]

I don't think you can just write it off as a 1-2 win difference and move on. While Lee may only finish with 2 more wins they say Javy Vazquez... his value over javy would be much bigger then that. Lee was something like 4-0 with a 1.50 era in the post season last year, and gives us another lefty in the rotation. Lee would certainly be in the playoff rotation, while javy likely wouldnt factor in - and certainly wouldnt be somone fans would count on.

I know id much rather see Lee on the hill in a big game then Javy or A.J. or hell, maybe more then anyone on this Yankees team. I don't see it as giving up too much either, since we'd be trading from depth. You can brush it off as only a 2 win upgrade, but its much more then that.... especially since the end goal is repeating as WS champs, and not just getting into the playoffs.

I could be wrong, but it looks as if he is talking about wins as far as wins above replacement player while it looks as if you’re reading that just straight raw pitching wins.

By saying that Lee is 1-2 wins better than Lee, Jon Abbey is acknowledging that there is a pretty massive difference in value between the two- to the tune of 10-20 runs. That’s significant. Abbey is only arguing that the difference between an average pitcher and an excellent one, isn’t worth the 3 wins a year over 6 seasons one could reasonably expect from Montero should he merely DH.

As a Sox fan, I wouldn’t want the Yankees to get Lee- but if it came at the cost of Montero, I’d be more than ok with it.
Lee’s past post-season success isn’t really all that predictive. Sure, he’s a much better pitcher than Burnett and Vasquez, but unloading for him with a staff that already features to excellent pitchers and 2 above average ones seems like a waste of resources.

[JerseyJay]

3 wins a year over 6 seasons doesnt really mean much if the yankees repeat as champions because Lee helped them in the post-season. The yankees did well with a 3 man rotation last year, and A.J. was solid. I don;t think you can count on a 3 man rotation & AJ 2 years in a row. Nor would i could on hughes getting it done his first year as a starter. While Lee's past performance doesnt gaurantee future success, I think your odds of repeating are much better with a pitcher of his calibur, who has done it before on the squad.

The goal, from my standpoint at least, is to win the world seires this year. If that means getting Lee, and watching Montero because the greatest catcher of all time, id be perfectly happy with that. As mentioned, the goal is to win the world series, not necesarily to win as extra couple games in the regular season

whether its raw wins or WAR, bottom line is im looking for the team to do what gives them the best shot to win the world series right now. And i think that is without a doubt adding cliff lee. I'm always for trading propects for veteran talent if your built to win. Plus it seems we have some options at catcher

I could be wrong, but it looks as if he is talking about wins as far as wins above replacement player while it looks as if you're reading that just straight raw pitching wins.

By saying that Lee is 1-2 wins better than Lee, Jon Abbey is acknowledging that there is a pretty massive difference in value between the two- to the tune of 10-20 runs. That's significant. Abbey is only arguing that the difference between an average pitcher and an excellent one, isn't worth the 3 wins a year over 6 seasons one could reasonably expect from Montero should he merely DH.

As a Sox fan, I wouldn't want the Yankees to get Lee- but if it came at the cost of Montero, I'd be more than ok with it.
Lee's past post-season success isn't really all that predictive. Sure, he's a much better pitcher than Burnett and Vasquez, but unloading for him with a staff that already features to excellent pitchers and 2 above average ones seems like a waste of resources.

[terrynever]

Good post, Jay. That's how the Yankees' FO approaches these kind of decisions. Win now. And you're right. There are catching options behind Romine down on the farm. Sanchez was signed at the age of 16 last July for more money than Montero got. He still hasn't suited up yet. Must be taking ESL course in Tampa.

Here's a link to Sanchez story when he signed:

http://www.nypost.co...CF8CEF2827B377D

[JerseyJay]

Yeah, im not desputing the metrics or the numbers, just don't agree with the approach of worrying about what montero might do when im certain that at the very least Lee would make us much more consistent and potentially could give us the best playoff rotation. Its similar to how i viewed the austin jackson trade. Maybe Ajax turns into a better player then granderson, and sooner rather then later, but granderson gives us a known commodity, especially in the field. i couldnt see going into the year with both jackson and gardner in the outfield.

Plus, as mentioned, we seem to have some depth as far as catcher goes in the organization, and even if that doesnt pan out, we always have the resources to go out and try and aquire a catcher(Free agency, taking on bad contracts via trade, trading prospects, etc).

I think sometimes the possibility of winnign a title goes overlooked for long term consistency... It hard enough to project 3 months out, let alone 5 years. Do whats best to win now, and worry about later later. at least thats my take

Good post, Jay. That's how the Yankees' FO approaches these kind of decisions. Win now. And you're right. There are catching options behind Romine down on the farm. Sanchez was signed at the age of 16 last July for more money than Montero got. He still hasn't suited up yet. Must be taking ESL course in Tampa.

Here's a link to Sanchez story when he signed:

http://www.nypost.co...CF8CEF2827B377D

[terrynever]

No, that's the take most Yankee fans have. We get squeamish about trading top prospects because deep down we like to grow our own players, but most of them get traded away.

We had a story in the Pawtucket paper today where Red Sox prospect Ryan Kalish said he would love to play for Boston but understands it's more likely he and other prospects will end up being traded. Most of the franchises that want to win the World Series operate in this fashion.

The Phillies have dealt off a few prospects in recent years. Lou Marson was supposed to be a top-flight catcher of the future but he's struggling to hit with the Indians. Look at Saltalamacchia and Teagarden with Texas. It has been three years since they were touted as the next great young catchers. Matt Treanor is starting ahead of them with the Rangers on most nights.

So, yeah, the Yankees might trade for Lee and give up Montero. (Back to the thread title.)

[Meff Nelton]

The goal, from my standpoint at least, is to win the world seires this year. If that means getting Lee, and watching Montero because the greatest catcher of all time, id be perfectly happy with that. As mentioned, the goal is to win the world series, not necesarily to win as extra couple games in the regular season

Teams that do things like that may win one title, but fail to make the playoffs for a decade after. There's a balance to everything. The Yankees are winning now because they didn't trade Jeter, Rivera, Posada, Pettitte, Cano, Hughes, etc. Just ask Cashman.

How would you feel watching Montero put up great numbers and seeing Cliff Lee sign in the offseason with another team if the Yankees got upset in the first round? And all trading for Lee would do is maybe make an upset 5% less likely. Perspective.

[JerseyJay]

I'd be fine watching Montero become an MVP type player for another team if it meant we landed Lee(even more so if we went on to win the WS). I also can't see losing montero sending the yankees into a downfall that would result in 10 straight years of missing the playoffs. either way, i'd be fine with first round upsets and montero MVP's if it was preceeded by repeating as world series champs.


As far as Lee signing elsehwere in the offseason, thats a different story, i dont make the deal unless an extensions is in the books, which id assume would probably be the case?

On a side note, i dont think the yankees are "winning now" just because they held on to those players. I think it has more to do with signing sabbathia and teixeira, and having a ton of talent overall in general. obviously those guys you mentioned are a big part of it, but there was plenty of post season flops prior to last years win.... And i dont think the yankees would all of a sudden not be contenders if they would have say - traded cano for matt kemp and signed orlando hudson, as once rumored/speculated.

Teams that do things like that may win one title, but fail to make the playoffs for a decade after. There's a balance to everything. The Yankees are winning now because they didn't trade Jeter, Rivera, Posada, Pettitte, Cano, Hughes, etc. Just ask Cashman.

How would you feel watching Montero put up great numbers and seeing Cliff Lee sign in the offseason with another team if the Yankees got upset in the first round? And all trading for Lee would do is maybe make an upset 5% less likely. Perspective.

Edited by JerseyJay, 09 June 2010 - 02:29 PM.

[jon abbey]

I love Cliff Lee. I mean, I really love Cliff Lee. But I don't see how it makes sense for NY to trade for him midseason as opposed to going after him in the offseason. If Boston or TB were potential bidders, I could see it making a little more sense, but they seem to be even less likely to give up prime prospects to fortify already stacked rotations than NY would be.

RAB weighs in here, I think they're pretty dead on:

http://riveraveblues...he-yanks-29906/

[jon abbey]

I'd be fine watching Montero become an MVP type player for another team if it meant we landed Lee(even more so if we went on to win the WS).

You need to look at the team's salary structure going forward. If you're planning to resign Jeter, Rivera and Pettitte and add Lee, you need some young impact players to keep the NY payroll from going even higher.

[Meff Nelton]

I'd be fine watching Montero become an MVP type player for another team if it meant we landed Lee(even more so if we went on to win the WS). I also can't see losing montero sending the yankees into a downfall that would result in 10 straight years of missing the playoffs. either way, i'd be fine with first round upsets and montero MVP's if it was preceeded by repeating as world series champs.

As far as Lee signing elsehwere in the offseason, thats a different story, i dont make the deal unless an extensions is in the books, which id assume would probably be the case?

A) We can win the World Series this year, even sans Lee,
B) Lee is repped, I believe, by Boras, and has stated he is going to Free Agency (where the Yankees can sign him, AND keep Montero, how about that?)
C) The idea of becoming an also-ran franchise is based more on your philosophy than this specific move. By your logic, we should have traded Cano for Maddux in 2003, because 'who cares about 2010 when you can win the World Series this year?!' And Montero is a better prospect than Cano ever was.

[JerseyJay]

You need to look at the team's salary structure going forward. If you're planning to resign Jeter, Rivera and Pettitte and add Lee, you need some young impact players to keep the NY payroll from going even higher.

I would assume that Lee would get something in the neighborhood of 20M, or somwhere between what lackey got and what CC got. does that sound about right? So for arguments sake I'll say 20M.

Vazquez makes 12, Pettitte makes i believe 10. So adding Lee, letting go of Vazquez along with Pettitte retiring and you have basically kept payroll the same there. Jeter and Mo i would assume would both get marginal raises, or just an extra year. enough to keep them happy. That in itself likely woudnt increase payroll much.

Unless pettitte returns, I dont see the yankee payroll getting much higher. But i figure this is his last year, especially if they can repeat.

[Meff Nelton]

On a side note, i dont think the yankees are "winning now" just because they held on to those players. I think it has more to do with signing sabbathia and teixeira, and having a ton of talent overall in general. obviously those guys you mentioned are a big part of it, but there was plenty of post season flops prior to last years win.... And i dont think the yankees would all of a sudden not be contenders if they would have say - traded cano for matt kemp and signed orlando hudson, as once rumored/speculated.

I would assume you know this, but you don't lose prospects when you sign a player. Draft picks, sure; but upper-level prospects are worth far far more than draft picks. And there's a world of difference between trading for Kemp, and having him under control for a few years, and trading for a guy who's a free agent in four months. And if you didn't have Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Cano, etc., I would think Sabathia and Teixeira would be kinda worthless, no?

Edited by Meff Nelton, 09 June 2010 - 02:38 PM.

[JerseyJay]

A) We can win the World Series this year, even sans Lee

We could win if Jeter suffered a season ending injury as well. But we'd have a much better chance if he stayed healthy. Its not just about the ability to win, but giving yourself the BEST chance to win. I look at Garza/Price and tampa, in the playoffs id feel much better against them with Lee on board.... not to mention i like our chances to catch them and gain home field with Lee in the rotation.

B) Lee is repped, I believe, by Boras, and has stated he is going to Free Agency (where the Yankees can sign him, AND keep Montero, how about that?)

It's all moot if we can't extend him. Him going to free agency as a mariner or philly would mean the yankees would be involved. if he is traded to the yankees, that may change things, especially if the yankees meet his price. Maybe not, but if we cant extend him then its all moot anyhow

C) The idea of becoming an also-ran franchise is based more on your philosophy than this specific move. By your logic, we should have traded Cano for Maddux in 2003, because 'who cares about 2010 when you can win the World Series this year?!' And Montero is a better prospect than Cano ever was.

well maddux may have got us contend for a title in '03 and '04, who knows. if that was the case i certainly wouldnt care if cano won the NL MVP on atlanta this year, cause id know that we had maddox helping us back then. Plus between 05-10 im sure we could have gotten a second baseman via FA or trade that would have kept us in contention. I cant see the yankees being an 85 win team last year if you replace cano with say orlando hudson.

Plus, if we move montero, we wont feel that hit for a few years, and have plenty of time to fill that void, either with cervelli/romine, or someone outside the organization.

D) let me flip it around on you... how would you feel if we lost the world seires in 7 games, because we got shelled in 4 of those games between A.J. and Hughes? Where even 1 decent start would have won us the series... would it make you feel better that we still had montero?

[jon abbey]

Finally what kind of future does Romine and Nunez have with the Yankees? Cervelli seems like a competent back up catcher and Jeter is going to have to be dragged from SS.

Nunez isn't the issue, Romine is. I'm OK with giving up Montero or Romine for the right long-term piece at P or OF, but as people have pointed out, Lee is going to free agency, so this would strictly be a deal for his services in 2010. I do think those have quite a lot of value for the right team (Minnesota? Detroit?), but I don't see the price making sense for NY.

Ideally NY is looking at Romine or Montero as the starting C in 2012 and beyond and Cervelli as the backup. If Montero pans out, Romine is expendable. If Montero is really the hitting prospect he's touted to be but can't handle C defensively, then he can be the fulltime DH and a backup at C and 1B and Romine and Cervelli can be the two catchers.

[JerseyJay]

I would assume you know this, but you don't lose prospects when you sign a player. Draft picks, sure; but upper-level prospects are worth far far more than draft picks. And there's a world of difference between trading for Kemp, and having him under control for a few years, and trading for a guy who's a free agent in four months. And if you didn't have Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Cano, etc., I would think Sabathia and Teixeira would be kinda worthless, no?

It not as absolute as you make it..... Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Pettitte, Hughes, and Cano make a combined what - 80M or so. Its not like if those 6 players werent here that they would be replaced by low-level MLB talent. There would likely be very good baseball players in their place. Sure there are plenty of overpaid bums in baseball, but at the very least that 80M going to someone else would provide some talent around the Free agents they signed(CC, AJ, Tex, etc...)

As far as Lee, as mentioned, I wouldnt make the deal if there isnt an extension along with it. Thus he would be under team control

Edited by JerseyJay, 09 June 2010 - 02:46 PM.

[jon abbey]

Lee is repped by Derek Braunecker, not Boras. If he isn't traded, he'll test free agency, but if he is traded to a team he really wants to play for, an extension might be possible, I guess. The most recent relevant quotes I can find are here:

"The agent for the pitcher, Darek Braunecker, said Saturday afternoon that Lee is almost certainly destined for free agency at this point, rather than signing with the Seattle Mariners.

"We're five months away from free agency," said Braunecker, "so I think that's the most likely scenario at this point."

http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=5153932

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

B) Lee is repped, I believe, by Boras, and has stated he is going to Free Agency (where the Yankees can sign him, AND keep Montero, how about that?)

His agent is actually Darek Braunecker. But I agree that your overall point is correct in that the only way he gets extended during the season is if he gets offered a ridiculous deal.

Edit: Beat to the punch by above post.

Edited by BannedbyNYYFans.com, 09 June 2010 - 02:50 PM.

[Meff Nelton]

Jay, I'll just leaave it at this: you can't be a perennial contender without young, cheap, good players coming through your system. And the only way you can trade for those types of players is with young, cheap, good players, unless you're losing, and dump expensive great players. Even the Yankees need a few.

[Meff Nelton]

Lee is repped by Derek Braunecker, not Boras. If he isn't traded, he'll test free agency, but if he is traded to a team he really wants to play for, an extension might be possible, I guess. The most recent relevant quotes I can find are here:

"The agent for the pitcher, Darek Braunecker, said Saturday afternoon that Lee is almost certainly destined for free agency at this point, rather than signing with the Seattle Mariners.

"We're five months away from free agency," said Braunecker, "so I think that's the most likely scenario at this point."

http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=5153932

If he wasn't talking extension with the Phillies, I doubt he'd do so with the Yankees so much closer to FA.

[jtn46]

I don't see the Yankees getting any of the 3 guys in the title. They just had what looks to be a very cheap draft, and it's hard not to believe that it's a big sign that the payroll is about as high as it can get. They didn't do anything big at the deadline last season, and they didn't add payroll in the offseason.

In the coming offseason they're not going to be clearing much payroll, as Jeter, Pettitte and Rivera will all likely return at close to what they're making now, Swisher and Granderson are getting raises and Joba and Hughes are going to see raises in arbitration, so I don't think they will even be a serious factor for Lee then unless the market for him falls apart, and given that he's going to be 32 and will probably settle for a modest deal length-wise I don't think that will happen.

[terrynever]

I doubt either side in this discussion can be proven right but it's certainly a good conversation about how you build a franchise that wants to win it all every year. Jay's point is the Yanks can replace Montero with Romine and Cervelli. I think my point is Montero's problems at the plate this year in the highest level of minor league ball make one wonder about his can't-miss hitting skills. But it's too early in the season to prove that, too.

One thing you don't want to do is trade a power-hitting prospect. That is the rarest form of young player.

[JerseyJay]

Jay, I'll just leaave it at this: you can't be a perennial contender without young, cheap, good players coming through your system. And the only way you can trade for those types of players is with young, cheap, good players, unless you're losing, and dump expensive great players. Even the Yankees need a few.

I guess we will just have to agree to disagree on that one.

[Meff Nelton]

I doubt either side in this discussion can be proven right but it's certainly a good conversation about how you build a franchise that wants to win it all every year. Jay's point is the Yanks can replace Montero with Romine and Cervelli. I think my point is Montero's problems at the plate this year in the highest level of minor league ball make one wonder about his can't-miss hitting skills. But it's too early in the season to prove that, too.

One thing you don't want to do is trade a power-hitting prospect. That is the rarest form of young player.

Well, sure. Montero could still be a colossal flop, but it's way too early in the game to make that judgment.

The one thing I would point out is in the terms he laid out, it was assumed that Montero would eventually be an MVP candidate. Which makes this whole conversation silly.

[jtn46]

I doubt either side in this discussion can be proven right but it's certainly a good conversation about how you build a franchise that wants to win it all every year. Jay's point is the Yanks can replace Montero with Romine and Cervelli. I think my point is Montero's problems at the plate this year in the highest level of minor league ball make one wonder about his can't-miss hitting skills. But it's too early in the season to prove that, too.

Mortal hitting prospects struggle when promoted to a higher level. It's nothing to worry about. Lots of prospects flame out and never really hit in the majors, and certainly Montero is not immune from that, but he's no more at risk than other hitting prospects. Montero's position is the dealbreaker, only because the Yankees are always an older team and can't really be carrying full-time DH's.

One thing you don't want to do is trade a power-hitting prospect. That is the rarest form of young player.

Every team's circumstances are different. The Yankees are tied up long-term across their infield, and so it really depends on what they believe the future of the catcher position looks like. Look at Texas now, they had 3 terrific catching prospects, asked for a king's ransom for any team asking about one of them, and now 2 of them have stumbled enough in the majors to kill a lot of their value. Ramirez is holding his own in a short sample, but it's hard to know what they should have done. On the one hand, holding onto all 3 may prove to have been smart, because they had a great backup plan. On the other hand, Teagarden and Saltalamacchia aren't worth nearly what they were worth a year ago, so long-term, Texas may have missed an opportunity to capitalize on a unique surplus.

If the Yankees could acquire Zack Greinke, and could come out of it without giving up Romine, wouldn't you sign up for that?

[jon abbey]

If the Yankees could acquire Zack Greinke, and could come out of it without giving up Romine, wouldn't you sign up for that?

I argued for this (Montero plus lesser pieces for Greinke) a month or so ago, and I think I'd still do it, but Greinke's performance thus far this year makes me a bit nervous. He hasn't been bad, but he certainly hasn't been dominant, and he's far from cheap at $13.5M for each of 2011 and 2012 and then a free agent.

All in all, though, I think this might still make sense both ways. KC's fan base (what's left of them, anyway) might be majorly pissed off if they move Greinke, but unless they're going to commit to him long-term for big bucks, the sooner they deal him, the more they can get.

[terrynever]

Based on Greinke's earlier problems with "social anxiety disorder," I would be leery of bringing him to the center stage that is NYC.

http://sportsillustr...55063/index.htm

[Phranchise]

Terry, he pitched the game of his life in game 1 of the WS last season...in Yankee Stadium...as a Phillie.

Not buying it.

[terrynever]

Terry, he pitched the game of his life in game 1 of the WS last season...in Yankee Stadium...as a Phillie.

Not buying it.

I was talking about Greinke in my previous post.

[Phranchise]

I'm sorry about that. My bad.

[terrynever]

I'm sorry about that. My bad.

No problem. Do you think Greinke could handle NY? He makes Jon Abbey nervous. I'd be a little nervous, too. The New York factor, with fans booing home players, and all the attendant bad publicity and gory headlines in the tabloids, is not something Zach has experienced in KC.

[jon abbey]

Ken Rosenthal on Lee to NY:

http://msn.foxsports...New-York-Yankee

first sentence: "The Yankees are going to end up with Mariners left-hander Cliff Lee. "

[TheYellowDart5]

Ken Rosenthal on Lee to NY:

http://msn.foxsports...New-York-Yankee

first sentence: "The Yankees are going to end up with Mariners left-hander Cliff Lee. "

And Rosenthal's only reason to say that is because some unnamed executive said that the Yankees won't be able to resist since Lee is a top-of-the-rotation starter, ignoring the fact that they already have a top-of-the-rotation starter in Sabathia and three very good starters in Hughes, Burnett and Pettitte.

Methinks that's just FOX and Rosenthal trying to drum up some page views.

[terrynever]

And Rosenthal's only reason to say that is because some unnamed executive said that the Yankees won't be able to resist since Lee is a top-of-the-rotation starter, ignoring the fact that they already have a top-of-the-rotation starter in Sabathia and three very good starters in Hughes, Burnett and Pettitte.

Methinks that's just FOX and Rosenthal trying to drum up some page views.

Me thinks you're right.

[EvilEmpire]

Not too much of a reach to suggest the Yankees will go after Lee in the off-season. I don't see any reason for them to offer up talent like Montero to get him half a season early. I can see value in them negotiating a bit and stirring up speculation in the media though. Letting Lee know how much they want him might help convince him and his agent to not sign an extension with whomever the Mariners trade him to.

[terrynever]

Not too much of a reach to suggest the Yankees will go after Lee in the off-season. I don't see any reason for them to offer up talent like Montero to get him half a season early. I can see value in them negotiating a bit and stirring up speculation in the media though. Letting Lee know how much they want him might help convince him and his agent to not sign an extension with whomever the Mariners trade him to.

Lee and CC were once teammates and remain close friends. If the Yankees want the guy, he's going to wear pinstripes next season, and maybe sooner. Remember the talk during the World Series about these two guys? It won't be hard to recruit Lee. Just got to pay him a couple million more than AJ makes.

[piratechief]

A poster on the previous page suggested the Yankees won't be clearing a lot of payroll this year and thus won't have a ton off the books to sign Lee. Thinking of that made me sad. Lol. I want him soooo bad.

Also, supposing Pettitte does retire, they are going to need two SP either way. My hopes for Joba are dashed because he's just toasty, so I definitely see them in the Lee market...but the point about payroll is not a bad one.

[jon abbey]

Here is a chart of NY's salary obligations going forward:

http://spreadsheets....amp;output=html

They lose $69M from 2010 to 2011, but will likely spend around $50M of that on resigning Jeter (I still think he'll get a 3 year/$60M deal), Rivera (1 or 2 years at $15M), and Pettitte (1 year at $15M if he keeps it up).

The other factor to keep in mind with Lee is that CC has the option to opt out after 2011, so Lee would be protection against CC opting out and leaving (I doubt this will happen at this point, but who knows).

[piratechief]

I'm sure CC won't opt out. No one can offer him the same amount of money. The Yankees probably wouldn't either, but...the Steinbrenners might A-rod the whole ordeal again.

[Spacemans Bong]

Considering the Yankees got played like a fucking fiddle by Boras in the A-rod negotiations, you can't rule it out. Saying that, I think it's unlikely.